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10 Year Technology Forecast for VERITAST. W. LanzatellaDistinguished EngineerVERITAS Product Operations
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Purpose• 5-10 year forecast of technology trends
– Scope: computers, data and networking– Equal weight: hardware and software
• Utility– A Shared vision even without agreement is useful– Context for tactical behavior
• Methodology– Web, experts, papers, other company forecasts– Expected error rates are high
• This talk is a statement of opinion
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Preview: Disruptive Themes
• General transition:– Industrial to information economy
• Micrified systems and sensors• Increasing network speeds• Packaging innovations for servers and storage• Storage service migration to hardware• Statistical behavior of servers and storage
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Technology Metafactors
• Economic backdrop– Governs funding
• Public Policy– High-order social agenda(s)– Science (NSF/NIH)– Mission critical (DOE/DOD)
• Large corporate interests• Standards
– Counteract balkanization
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Economic Setting
NON-RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT:SOFTWARE
Ann%Chg
INFORMATION PROCESSING EQUIPMENT AND SOFTWARE Ann%Chg
COINCIDENT INDICATOR*102102
101101
100100
9999
NON-RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT:Ann%
Chg10105500
-5-5-10-10-15-15
Ann%Chg
20 2015 1510 105 50 0
98 2000 0288 90 92 94 96* SOURCE: THE CONFERENCE BOARD. SHOWN AS A DEVIATION FROM TREND.
© BCA Research 2003
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Public Policy Issues• Digital rights
– Copyright & ownership– Copy protection
• Intellectual property awareness
– Patent litigation• Privacy & Security
– NSF may receive 4x budget for security ($250M by 2007)
– Credit card fraud -$17B/year
• Public access– Internet usage– Open source
• Corporate governance– Data retention– Audit trails
• Global demographics– No wired infrastructure– IPv6
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Conflicts for Technology Advance
• Chicken/egg problem– Technology improvement is human nature
• Entails purposeful, speculative development – cool but brittle– Commerce targets commodity infrastructure
• Invisible, never broken
• New technology creates stress– Different quarters/different tolerance– Monetary incentive
• Drives adoption task to public sector– Defined mission of NSF/DOE…
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What Does NSF Think?
• Atkins Report (January, 2003)– Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Proposal
• ~10 year vision– Justify $1B NSF investment– Assume rampant advance at component level/data volumes– Emphasize software
• .1 – 1 Pflop systems, PHz networks, PB databases– 106 CPUs, (not femtosecond clock)– Sharable across community
• Plan for major growth in: – Computational provisioning/distributed data/digital libraries
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Public Sector Directional Changes
• New initiatives– Change from buying to linking iron
• Broaden access by researchers
• Grids and digital libraries already established– ~20 functional grids– ~10 major libraries
• Europe/Japan out-spending US• Multinational effort:
– Grid interoperability/unification
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Server Infrastructure - Grids• Clustered and IP-connected servers
– Grid = resource federation for virtual organizations– Exceed limitations of DCE, CORBA, Enterprise Java
• Origins– Inexpensive analog to massively parallel systems
• HPC applications, SETI@home• Movement seeking commercial applications
– Aggregate enterprise resources– Establish framework:
• Work submission and flow, resource allocation– Globus toolkit (www.globus.org)– IBM supplying grid services for Sony game network
• Data grids pose numerous problems – Wide-area dist. file systems, replication strategies
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“Natural” Laws
• Moore’s Law– Price/performance halves every 12-18 months
• Metcalf’s Law– Value of network increases as (# of users)2
• Guilder’s Law– Bandwidth doubles every 12-18 months
• Adam Smith’s Law– Commoditization leads to lower costs, tighter margins
• Interchangeability
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Trends – Transistor Density
• Moore’s Law – no interrupt within 10 years• Projected densities
– .5G transistors/chip in 2003 (Madison) – 1G transistors/chip 2005 (Deerfield)– 16G transistors/chip by 2013
• Emerging factors: atomic dimensions/statistical behavior• Heat!
• Drives adoption of ‘Spintronics’• Alter/detect electron spin state• Spin-polarized currents – demands on-chip optical
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Trends – Magnetic Media• Doubling every 16 months
– 120Gb (3.5”) -> 10TB (3.5”) by 2013• Superparamagnetic limit (SPL) 20-40 Gb/in2
• Current devices ~10Gb/in2
• Vertical recording moves SPL to 250 Gb/in2
• Extraordinary magnetoresistance– Alter/detect electron orbitals– Gains 40x
• Tiny regions increase error rates– Temperature distortion ~r4
– Flutter distortion ~r5
– Drives radius smaller
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Alternatives to Disk
• Solid state storage – Flash memory– Ferro-electric (FeRAM)– Magnetic RAM (MRAM)– Polymer– Chalcogenic/Ovonic materials– Organics (protein, DNA)
• Non-rotating magnetic media– MEMS
• Small-format arrays (multiple disks in one package)• Conclusion: storage hierarchies (memory/MEMS/disk)
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Perceived Rates of Change• Hardware components
– Materials science, fabrication is leaping ahead
• E.g., holographic media, carbon nano-tubes,
• Hardware systems (boards)– Must aggregate standard
components• E.g., SCSI controllers, disk drives
• Software systems– Higher level of aggregation– E.g., OS, backup, distributed data– Conflict: enduring utility vs. changing
requirements
Time
New Products
Components
Hardware Systems
Software
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Micrified of Systems• Tiny as application enabler
– Adjunct to smaller/cheaper cycle– Good science– Spans systems to devices– Type, talk, see -> feeling + thinking
• Embedded is 98% of CPU population– 70 embedded processors in BMW 5-series
• Micro-systems– Berkeley intelligent dust – 1mm3 (cpu, mem., battery, WiFi)
• Microelectricmechanical systems (MEMS)• Sensors/probes, springs, sleds, diaphragms
• Software push: peer-to-peer + TinyOS
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
MEMS Examples• Micron-scale components
(10-6 M)• Applications:
– Gyroscopes– Accelerometers– Micro-mirror arrays for
LCD projectors– Optical switches
• CMU developing– Mems storage– Mems sonic arrays
• IBM– Millipede 6 MEMS probe
tips in CMU storage device 100 µm
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Networks• A broad class of technologies
– Applications: trunks, areas(xANs), last miles– Media: optical fiber, cell, cable, WiFi
• Trunks - Optical fiber speeds– 40 GHz in common use/1.6 THz (experimental deployments)– 11 THz in lab
• Areas - NIC rates– Shared physical layer with Fibre Channel– 2 Gbps in common use/10 Gbps parts available– 100 Gbps in lab
• Last mile – diverse + complex– Clouded by business and regulation– Cell to 1Mbps, WiFi to 150 Mbps, cable to 1Gz
• Demand sectors: science, consumer, commercial
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Bandwidth (Required vs. Available)Required Streaming Bandwidth vs. Available
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(comp)Tivo (comp) DVD (comp) DVD MiniDV HD-DVD NTSC LoRes HD HiRes HD Cinema HD Archive Virtual
Presence
Optimal Bandwidth Gb/sRequired Bandwidth (Gb/s)
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Protocol Trends
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Server Farm
IP
PCI-X, Infiniband
NIC
HBA
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PCI-X, Infiniband
Fibre Channel
NIC
HBA
• Three interconnects:– Internal bus– Storage– Internet
• Speeds evolving to 10Gbps– Amplify bottlenecks
• Large forces driving to IP– But service levels enable
provisioning – not part of IP• There is hope for Infiniband
• NIC issues – TOE offload– Consider RDMA
• VIA, IB – link • RDMAP/DDP – transport
East Coast
Light signal 20ms + switching time
West Coast
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Modularity• Novel packaging of aggregated technology
– Sealed, proximity-based connectivity• Inductive connections to cold-plate
Double as back plane– Server model to follow disk– Drives to:
• Self-revealing devices • Proxy services and peer-to-peer
• High populations demand statistical behavior– Long-theorized, now practical– Theme – autonomic computing
• End affect is profound– Ultimate spongy resource – merely degrades– Qualitative shift in administration philosophy
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Media - Functional Stratification• IDC – array business =>
$60B by 2006• Economics
– Memory challenges disk– Disk challenges tape– Absolute cost vs cost of
being down• Tape useful as archive
– Access rates out of sync with most business costs
• Single purpose platforms challenge server analogs
Expensive, fast disk
Cheap, slow disk
Tape Emulators
Flash Disk
Arrays
Content Addressible
Storage
NAS
ATA Arrays
MemoryFile system i/f
Low-cost Memory LUN i/f
Tape
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Array Systems Absorb Services
• Autonomic technology within arrays• Broader/deeper/smarter
– Expandable designs moving up the application stack– Export 10,000 provisioned LUNs– Standardized imaging services + mgt software
• Replication, frozen image, protection, security
• Myriad data distribution opportunities– Enterprise name spaces within modular packaging– IBM project - Collaborative Intelligent Bricks
• File serving supplants LUN provisioning– Fueled by modular (multi-headed) servers
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Distributed Data – Object Storage• Scalability revisited
– Not a new idea – server as bottleneck• store-and-forward architecture• Pilots: NFS/RDMA, DAFS
Helps only metadata exchanges• Need storage unit as smart peer
• Object Storage Device• Proxy name service
Dispenses access rights to clients• Block service in storage unit
• Lustre file system is pilot– DOE ASCI requires 40GBps
NFS Server
NFS Client
NFS ClientBlock
Service
NFS Name
Service
All data for a file associated with disk is an
object
Block Service
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Datanomic Storage Environments
• Public sector initiative re object storage– Growing industry affiliation
• Applications of object storage devices– Abstraction merges files with volumes– Hinting, QoS (network aware delivery)– Replication, locality– Metadata– Active storage – local computation
• Needs critical evaluation
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Commercial Advances• Commercial vision as far-reaching as scientific vision• Shifting business models
– Web services driven by network speeds– Trading relationships for b2b– Revived xSPs
• Complexity threatens IT spending– Technology advances outpacing simplification– Drives to outsourced services
• Security still a challenge• Audio/visual data sources push software tooling
– Unstructured data-mining– Casting for metadata standards
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Summary• Buoyant investment climate over next 10 years• Public sector is future-minded on infrastructure• Expanding depth and detail in sensing realm
– 50:1 embedded vs server – increasing– Tiny systems drive peer-to-peer
• Network speeds scaling upwards– Business cycle clouds last mile
• Provocateur - wireless– New server bottlenecks at 10Gbps
• Server provisioning – new and evolving• Storage adjusting to IP and modular packaging
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Conclusions on 10 Year Horizon• Convergence to IP for everything is possible
– System area networks storage area networks– Even Infiniband could run over IP
• Distributed data demands will rise significantly– Many CPUs need to touch data– Bottlenecks will force decisions on RDMA apps
• Drive experiments pushing FS/VM to arrays• Could induce big changes to NFS/CIFS/HTTP
• Full service arrays engulf storage services– Commodity, appliance-based data imaging– Arrays challenge server-based services– Demands new paradigms in management services
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Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003
Extras