1.

2013 12014 2 °

× °

Geng and Sugi, 2003 Mizuta 2012

° 980hPa

Chang 2013

°

Zappa et al., 2014

2. 2.1. 5

CMIP5

2RCP4.5

RCP8.5

6 CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CM, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, BCC-CSM 1-1(M)

CMIP5

3 (1) 2 JRA-55; Kobayashi et

al. 2014 (2) ECMWF Interim ERA Interim; Dee et al., 2011 (3) CFS

CFSR; Saha et al., 2010

1981-2005 20C

° 21 2036-2060 mid-21C 21

2076-2100 late-21C 2

2.2.

Neu et al. (2013)

(a) JRA55 (b) MIROC5

(c) CCSM4 (d) MRI-CGCM3

1: 20C 2

(a) JRA55, (b) MIROC5, (c) CCSM4, (d) MRI-CGCM3 SST 2K

115

Hayasaki and Kawamura (2012) SLP

Serreze

Serreze and Barett, 2008SLP 125 km

EASE 0.5 hPa

SLP 3. 3.1.

a 2 20CJRA55

2

2

CMIP5 20C

2b, d 1c

CCSM4

5 3.2.

2 2 30 -50 N,

130 -150 ESLP

SLP

150 EPinto et al. (2005)

CMIP5

2 11 3

3 CMIP5 20C

2: 2 20C

late-21C(RCP8.5) 150E 2(SLP) : 10-9 Pa m-2

3

20C, late-21C (RCP8.5)

CMIP5

116

4. 4.1.

2

3 20C late-21C, RCP8.5 Nov-Mar

late-21C 20C -10% RCP4.5 -16%

RCP8.5 4 4.2.

Yoshida and Asuma 2004 YA2004

YA2004 3 OJ, PO-L,

PO-O YA2004

1

PO-OOJ

5.

° CMIP56

CMIP5

4 30 -50 N, 130 - 150

E20C, mid-21C, late-21C

620C

21CRCP4.5 RCP8.5

1 late-21C (RCP8.5) Nov-Mar

OJ, PO-L, PO-O %20C

OJ PO-L PO-O MRI-CGCM3 27.7

(+6.1) 25.7 (-2.3)

39.2 (-6.2)

MIROC5 37.1 (+13.5)

24.1 (-2.6)

33.4 (-12.5)

CCSM4 26.3 (+3.2)

32.2 (+0.4)

34.0 (-4.5)

CNRM-CM5 26.6 (+1.9)

34.0 (-1.7)

34.0 (-3.6)

CMCC-CM 34.7 (+2.6)

30.0 (+1.1)

25.6 (-4.3)

BCC-CSM1-1(M) 27.3 (+2.7)

24.0 (+0.7)

34.4 (-6.1)

JRA55 20.0 25.7 52.6

117

(1) ° (2)

YA2004PO-O

OJ

Pinto et al., 2005; Neu et al., 2013

(2A-1201) .

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