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2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
T. J. Wojnar50th Annual ECC Conference
September 2018
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity
Global primary energy demand
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1900-1960)
Quadrillion BTUs
Nuclear/Hydro/Other RenewablesGas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
50 years ago…
• Energy demand accelerating
• Oil surpasses coal to gain #1 share
• Seatbelts mandated in all new cars
• Ford Mustang - top seller in the U.S.
• Boeing revealed the revolutionary 747
• HP introduced the 1st desktop computer
• Polaroid camera – digital imaging pioneer
• Offshore oil production – max water depth
• 1968: ~400 feet (now ~12,000 feet)
• U.S. refineries
• 1968: 282 (now ~135, +65% capacity)
• U.S. GDP per capita <50% of today’s level
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
10 100 1000 10000
Energy Fuels Human Development
U.N. Human Development Index
2015 Index
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates
2015 Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)
United StatesNorway
Nigeria
Yemen
BangladeshIndia
China
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global trends continue to evolve
+1.7 billionpeople
2xGDP
+25%demand
+10%CO2 emissions
-45%CO2 intensity
Percent
Growth from 2016 level 2016
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global efficiency limits demand growthEnergy demand
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Energy savings
China
India
Other AP Non-OECD
Rest of World
Share of primary energy demand by region
Share of Quadrillion BTUs
United States
Other OECD
China
India
Other Non-OECD
Europe OECD
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Policy and consumer choices impact demand
Electric vehicles grow rapidly
Million cars
Battery electrics
Plug-in hybrids
Liquids demand remains resilient
MBDOE
Total liquids demand
Light-duty liquids demand
Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Light duty transportation
Power generation /Residential / Commercial
Commercial transportation
Chemicals
Sensitivity liquids demand
Other industrial
Hypothetical electric vehicle sensitivity
Liquids demand by sector
MBDOE
Sensitivity
Outlook
Power generation
Light duty transportation
Global emissions
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Billion tonnes
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Electricity demand grows and sources shift
2016
2040
Electricity sources shift
Thousand TWh
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other renewables
Gas
Wind/Solar
Solar capacity Wind capacity
Share of TWh
Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity
North America
Europe Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa World
'16
'40
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy-related CO2 emissionsGlobal energy-related CO2 emissions
Billion tonnes
AssessedBaseline scenarios
Assessed 2oC scenarios
2018 Outlook for Energy
EMF27-FT cases include CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes
Baseline and 2oC scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios
Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector
Billion tonnes
Transportation
Electricity generation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Assessed 2oC Scenarios: 2040 global energy demand
2040 Global demand by model and energy type
Exajoules
Oil w/ CCS
Oil
Gas w/ CCS
Gas
Coal w/ CCS
CoalNuclearBioenergy w/ CCS
Bioenergy
Non-bio renewables
Based on EMF27 full technology / 450 ppm scenarios (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Significant investments needed to meet demand
Excludes biofuels
Global liquids supply
MBDOE
Supply without investment
Average demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios*
High demand based Assessed 2oC Scenarios
Low demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios
*Average demand is based on the average of the Assessed 2oC Scenarios’ oil and natural gas growth rates
78
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
2040 by fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2016 - 2040
0.9%
2016
0.7%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.6%
Nuclear
Biomass
Solar / Wind / Biofuels
Hydro / Geothermal
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2oC pathway
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to lower GHG emissions
(e.g. natural gas, wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy/ technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policycosts
High policycosts
Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Upstream Research
Process Technology
Science-based fundamentals
Catalyst, low-emission processing, scale-up
Efficient resource capture, development and production
Unique R&D model
Chemicals TechnologyAdvantaged feedstocks, improved processes and products
Tire rubber
High octane
gasoline
Digital simulator
Synthetic catalyst
Specialty plastics
Extended-reach drilling
Lithium batteries
Ultra-deepwater development
A history of innovation
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Technology is the foundation for the future
Improved Resource Capture
Advanced Hydrocracking
Biofuels
Process Intensification
Carbon Capture
Mid-term
Near-termAdvantaged technology delivery
Industrial processes with lower emissions
Long-termBiofuels, CCS
16
Low emissions transportation with advanced biofuels
Sunlight + CO2 + H2O + Photosynthesis = Biofuels
Today’s approach: Small scale, competes with food and water
Our research: Large scale, global solutions, non-competitive with food and water
Near term step: 10,000 BPD by 2025
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Outlook to 2040:
• Invest ~$21 trillion in oil and gas, ~$15 trillion in upstream
• Tight oil, deepwater, oil sands supplies up >100%
• Unconventional gas up ~100%
• Expand wind/solar electricity by ~400%
• Boost efficiency at 2x pace since 2000
• Advance technologies to reduce emissions (e.g. CCS)
• Accelerate adoption of digital enablers to boost productivity and value
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other
Renewables
Biomass
Quadrillion BTUs
Global primary energy demand
Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
NuclearOther Renewables
1900 1970
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1900-1960)
20101930
Biomass
20401900 1970 20101930 2040
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Outlook to 2040:
• Invest ~$21 trillion in oil and gas, ~$15 trillion in upstream
• Tight oil, deepwater, oil sands supplies up >100%
• Unconventional gas up ~100%
• Expand wind/solar electricity by ~400%
• Boost efficiency at 2x pace since 2000
• Advance technologies to reduce emissions (e.g. CCS)
• Accelerate adoption of digital enablers to boost productivity and value
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other
Renewables
Biomass
Quadrillion BTUs
Global primary energy demand
Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1900-1960)
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy mattersAs the world’s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040,
we are challenged to help improve living standards everywhere.
We expect that progress will be powered by human ingenuity
and the energy that helps make better lives possible.