Systems Modeling Overview

Next Generation Science Standards

(NGSS)

Systems Association of Fish and Wildlife

Agencies

Sustainable Tomorrow: A Teachers’ Guidebook for Applying Systems

Thinking to Environmental Education Curricula

Educators

Prior to working through this presentation:

• Download Sustainable Tomorrow: A Teachers’ Guidebook for Applying Systems Thinking to Environmental Education Curricula from the Moodle site.

• Download and Print:

Educators are required to include the study of Systems

(NGSS Framework)

Dimensions of the

Framework

–Scientific and Engineering Practices

–Crosscutting Concepts

–Disciplinary Core Ideas

Educators: Systems is one of 7 Crosscutting Concepts (NGSS)

1. Patterns

2. Cause & effect: Mechanism & explanation

3. Scale, proportion, & quantity

4. Systems & system models

5. Energy & matter: Flows, cycles, & conservation

6. Structure & function

7. Stability and change

Value of Using Systems as a Crosscutting Concept

Educators: Below are excepts describing the value of “Systems and System Models” in NGSS (2011) that will guide the development of state science standards.

Using systems to understand complexity: The natural and designed world is

complex; it is too large and complicated to investigate and comprehend all at once. Scientists and students learn to define small portions for the convenience of investigations. The units of investigations can be referred to as ‘systems’ (National Science Education Standards).

Using systems to model or mathematically represent complexity: A model

of a system under study is a useful tool for representing the complexity of the system, gaining an understanding and communicating that understanding of a system to others.

Using system models to examine complexity: Models are useful for

predicting a system’s behavior or in diagnosing problems in the functioning of the system

NGSS – K12 Framework

General Definition: A system is an organized group of related objects or components that form a whole. Systems can consist, for example, of organisms, machines, fundamental particles, galaxies, ideas and numbers. Systems have boundaries, components, resources, flow, and feedback (NGSS-K12SES: 4-7)

Educators: The NGSS systems definition requires learners to address boundaries, components (variables), resources (stocks) flow (inputs and outputs) and feedback (negative/balance and positive/causal) found in the AFWA ‘Sustainable Tomorrow” guide.

Educators: Another resource for educators on how systems can be integrated into science learning:

System Definition: from *Art Sussman’s Guide to Science

A system exists whenever parts combine or connect with each other to form a whole. The whole is QUALITATIVELY more than the sum of its parts (*Page 23). Questions to ask about systems (*Page 35): 1.What are the parts of the system? 2.How does the system function as a whole? 3.How is the system part of larger system? 4.Does the system do anything when given input? *Dr Art’s guide to Science: Connecting Atoms, Galaxies and Everything in Between. Art Sussman 2006. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, CA www.guidetoscience.net

KEY SYSTEMS SCIENCE PRINCIPLES

• A system is a group of interacting parts that functions as a whole.

• Systems change over time.

• Changes in systems can be short, slow, or cyclic.

• Interactions within a system may not always be obvious.

• Systems have boundaries.

• Scientists do not yet know enough about Earth systems to determine which elements are essential and which are not.

• Systems are parts of larger systems, which are parts of still larger systems.

• Systems are made up of subsystems, which in turn are made up of still smaller subsystems.

• Systems have inputs and outputs.

Cary Sneider, Richard Golden, Katherine Barrett A New World View http://www.lhs.berkeley.edu/GSS/

Educators:

Which of the following are

systems or parts of

systems. Why or why

not? Use the Systems

Science Principles to

justify your answer.

•Battery

•Box of staples

•Lungs

•Leaf

http://www.lhs.berkeley.edu/GSS/

KEY SYSTEMS SCIENCE PRINCIPLES

• A system is a group of interacting parts that functions as a whole.

• Systems change over time.

• Changes in systems can be short, slow, or cyclic.

• Interactions within a system may not always be obvious.

• Systems have boundaries.

• Scientists do not yet know enough about Earth systems to determine which elements are essential and which are not.

• Systems are parts of larger systems, which are parts of still larger systems.

• Systems are made up of subsystems, which in turn are made up of still smaller subsystems.

• Systems have inputs and outputs.

Cary Sneider, Richard Golden, Katherine Barrett A New World View http://www.lhs.berkeley.edu/GSS/

Educators:

Which of the following are

systems or parts of

systems. Why or why

not? Use the Systems

Science Principles to

justify your answer.

•Battery

•Box of staples

•Lungs

•Leaf

The Battery, lungs and leaf

are all systems. The box

of staples is not a system

because it does not have

interacting parts that

function as a whole.

http://www.lhs.berkeley.edu/GSS/

9-12

6-8

3-5

K-2

Educators: Learners are expected to progress in their depth of understanding of systems at each grade band

Systems: A Progression of Explanatory Ideas

Inputs, Outputs, Boundaries & Flows:

Complex Systems:

Part – Whole Relationships:

Predictability and Feedback:

Systems

Why use Systems Thinking?

Systems is a crosscutting concept in NGSS

Which Systems?

Physical Systems

Earth/Space Systems

Living Systems

Big Idea:

Systems thinking makes it possible to analyze and

understand complex phenomena.

Systems-Speak K-3

Parts & Wholes

Function of the Part

Predict

Systems-Speak 4-5

Subsystems & System

Inputs & Outputs

Functions & Predictions

Systems-Speak 6-8

Inputs & Outputs Boundaries & Flow

Open and Closed Systems

Systems-Speak 9-12

Positive Feedback

Negative Feedback

Equilibrium

Educators: Here is another representation systems understanding for of learners at each grade band

Courtesy: Mark Watrin, Education Service District 112 Science Coordinator , Washington State

Making the system visible

• NGSS Chapter 4-7: Models can be valuable in predicting a system’s behavior or in diagnosing problems in its functioning. A good system model for use in developing scientific explanations or engineering designs must specify not only the parts or subsystems, of the system but how they interact with one another. It must also specify the boundary of the system being modeled. In complex systems it is important to ask what interactions are occurring –like predator-prey relationships in an ecosystem – and to recognize that they all involve transfers of energy, matter, and sometimes information among parts of the system.

Model the systems

• Students can model their system through diagrams, words and mathematical relationships (NGSS-K12SES 4-8).

• The systems models provide a graphical representation indicating the mathematical relationships between the parts of the system.

• NGSS: (page 4-8). Students models should incorporate a

range of mathematical relationships among variables and some analysis of the patterns of those relationships.

Make the system visible

• Represent the interactions between the parts of the system through the following systems models

Behavior over time graphs (page 10)

Causal loop diagrams (page11- 14)

Input/output diagrams (page 15)

Iceberg Model (page 19- 22)

Educators: Each of the systems models will be described next.







Educators: Check the Behavior Over Time systems model on page 10 and identify the mathematical trend (increase, decrease or equilibrium)

Educators: Look at the behavior over time graph which demonstrates

the mathematical trends observed by scientists: read an explanation

on page 10 and page 17 of Sustainable Tomorrow

Mule Deer Population

1950----------------------------2012

Educators: For example the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife scientists study why Mule Deer Populations have declined over the past decades. The Behavior over time graph is a mathematical representation of the system trend.

Modeling the system is important in engineering (including natural

resource management) to support developing design (and management)

ideas, and sharing, testing and refining them (NGSS 2011)

Go to the SYSTEMS MODELING ACTIVITY PAGE:

ACTIVITY 1: Represent at least one study that your state

fish and wildlife agency currently conducts that can be

explained by a Behavior Over Time graph. What are the

parts of the system (variables) focused on by your state

agency that change over time & needs to be managed?







Educators: Check the Causal Loop/Feedback systems model on pages 11-14 and identify the mathematical relationship (increase, decrease, positive & negative feedback)

A system is changing when one variable in the system is changing in the same (s) direction (increase or decrease) as another variable. This is a self reinforcing (R) or positive causal feedback loop

Input/Event: Wildlife Population ↑

Simplified positive reinforcing causal loop:

Output: Wildlife Births ↑

A system is in balance (B) or equilibrium when one part of the system is increasing ↑ while another part is decreasing ↓. This is a balancing loop (page 14), typical of Predator Prey relationships







Educators: Check the Input/Output systems model on the page 15 and identify the mathematical relationship (increase, decrease)

Model for System Flow with Inputs & Outputs

Input Output

↓ ↓

[Deer Births] → {Number of Deer} → [Deer Deaths]→

Go to the SYSTEMS MODELING ACTIVITY PAGE :

ACTIVITY 2: Represent the system you modeled

with the Behavior Over Time Graph by using a

system flow model that shows inputs and outputs.

The trends are made more visible by modeling the input and output

flow of the system (Pages18).







Educators: Check the Iceberg Model on pages 19-22, linking system events, with system patterns, system structures and mental models.

Mental Model: We need to regulate fishing to ensure future generations have fish

Structure: State agencies manage populations: hunting & fishing regulations

Pattern: Ecosystem Balance – carrying capacity stable

Events: People catching and releasing fish at local pond Observable behaviors

Recurring events over time

Elements in a system that drive behavior

Held beliefs & assumptions that give rise to structures & behaviors

Story of State Fish and Wildlife Agencies and Programs

Observable behaviors: What we see

Recurring events over time: What we see over time

Elements in a system that drive behavior: What supports what we see

Held beliefs & assumptions that give rise to structures & behaviors: What we believe.

Mental Model:

Structure:

Pattern:

Events:

Go to the SYSTEMS MODELING ACTIVITY PAGE :

ACTIVITY 3: Create an iceberg model representing some concern you are dealing with in your professional situation.

Systems Analysis in 6 Steps

Look at issues in your professional situation through the lens of systems.

Use the 6 steps for Systems Analysis described in Sustainable Tomorrow pages 8-21

Practice Systems Analysis using your environmental & sustainability education lessons. These lesson typically include both science and social science disciplines

Inputs & Outputs

The parts of the system that change over time

Relationship between parts of the system

Educators: You can apply the 6 steps of systems analysis to issues

you address through your profession.

Conclusion

• The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) expects STEM education to include the study of systems and applying systems analysis to problem solving.

• Biologists and natural resource managers apply systems understanding and systems analysis in their role as professionals for agencies, business and industry.

Documents

Systems Modeling Overview