System S Project | IBM Research

© 2007 IBM Corporation – All Rights Reserved

MARIO MARIO Mashup Automation for Realtime Invocation & OrchestrationMashup Automation for Realtime Invocation & Orchestration

Energy Trading CaseEnergy Trading Case

System S Project | IBM Research

© 2007 IBM Corporation – All Rights Reserved

Illustrative Example: Fear and Opportunity in the Gulf

News Flash: Hurricane Dean Upgraded to

Category 5 Path Projected through Gulf Oil Stocks Uniformly Down

News Flash: Hurricane Dean Upgraded to

Category 5 Path Projected through Gulf Oil Stocks Uniformly Down

Others are up, showing recovery even beforethe storm hits

…the live tickers tell a different story

Properties with significant assets in path are still down

More affected companies have been identified(a bit late, no?)

Same story, viewed 2 hours later.The story’s the same, but…

• If you saw it coming, because you watched for more primal data…

• Like hurricane path predictions from NOAA• Or even weather satellite and/or sensor data• Real-time equities trade data

• If you’ve been accumulating intelligence on the location (and value) of company assets that could be in the path…

• If you could apply such analysis before the news cycle…

• You could take advantage – in both directions…Oil company stocks down, based on early fears.

System S Project | IBM Research

© 2007 IBM Corporation – All Rights Reserved

Web Zero platform

Capture weather sensor data, analyses hurricane predicted path

Estimate impact on portfolios

Recommendations Based on Hurricane Forecast

Compute portfolio market indicators

(low latency) Make recommendations

and notify

Capture market data

(high volume)

System S platform

DHTML Result rendering

Real-time projections of hurricane path

Dynamically updated risk assessment

for assets in projected path

Correlate combined risk and trade VWAP to

determine buy/sell recommendations