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System Dynamics Group
Using Simulation-Based Learning Environments to Build Capacity
for Managing Complexity
Presented by: Babak BahaddinSUNY University at Albany
April 2015
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1. SBLEs
• CoastalProtectSim Model
• ReThink Model
The Context
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• A simulation-based learning environment is a package of materials and scaffolded exercises designed around a simulation model that can be used by learners with limited external facilitation.
• This is what we are talking about.
SBLE
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Last Colloquium I talked about SBLEs
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2) What we’ve done and what we’ll do• Classroom activity (published)• Workshop design for managers (the future)
3) NSF call• Our team has sent a proposal for the CyberSEES program
4) Our proposal has three objectives:• Helping the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) through the workshops• Evaluating the participant’s progress, in terms of managing complexities• Identifying a reusable framework for embedding domain knowledge with
simulation techs.
The Coastal Protection Problem
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• Aims to advance interdisciplinary research in which the science and
engineering of sustainability are enabled by new advances in computing, and in which computational innovation is grounded in the context of sustainability problems.
• One component of the National Science Foundation's Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) activities
• Full Proposal Deadline: February 24, 2015
Cyber-Innovation for Sustainability Science and Engineering (CyberSEES)
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USACE has agreed to facilitate meetings with three coastal communities where we can test our SBLE and workshop model
Avalon: one of the vulnerable places along the NJ coastline.
Corps has good relationship with Avalon’s mayor/local emergency response chief.
Workshop model:1 day: simulator, causal mapping, problem elicitation, BOTs, basic structure elicitation
Workshop in Avalon, NJ
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System Dynamics Group
Coastal Protect Sim Model Overview
(Pointe Claire Case)Michael Deegan
U.S. Army Corps of EngineersSeptember 30, 2014
9
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Coastal Protect:
10
Land Development
developmentdensity
newdevelopment
+
NaturalResources
resourcedecay
time toregenerate
-
time todecay
-
environmentaldecay from
development effect
-
developmentpressure for
tourism
+
+
NaturalResourcesin Decay
resourceregeneration
relocation
Protection in Planning
Protection in Development
Protection from MitigationProjects
planscompleted
projectimplementation
protectionrequested
Desired change inprotection with current
resources
taxes andrevenues fromdeveloped land
+
communitydemand for
new protection
ability to payfor desiredprotection
+
+
protectionfrom natural
resources
perceived protectionfrom naturalresources and
mitigation projects
protection topopulationat risk ratio
new developmentfrom perceived
risk effect
relocation fromperceived risk
effect
+
change inperceivedprotection
developmentto carrying
capacity ratio
+
projects indecay
regenerationtime from
developmenteffect
+
+
-
+
+
riskperception
-
-
level ofprotection
+
+
+
+
+
perceivedfraction
protected
+
taxrevenue
+
naturalprotection effectfrom open space
++
perceivedprotection +
If you build it, theywill come
R
Natural BarrierProtection
B
B
Protecting theCommunity
R
tourism pressure onland development
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Where is Pointe Claire?
The case is set in the Pointe Claire region on the Gulf Coast of the United States where community leaders are poised to engage the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in a long range planning effort.
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12
Control Panel: Policies, Scenarios, and Outputs
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13
Problem Statement: Revenues and Expenditures
•If we continue the path set forth by our current policies, development in this community will be unsustainable.
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14
Policies you can change
• Build Coastal Protection Mitigation Projects
• Enforce Stricter Building Codes
• Buyout properties in the floodplain
• Restrict zoning on future development
• Renourish beaches to maintain natural barriers
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Evaluation?
Why do we need to evaluate our work?
Jay Forrester: Learning and creation of new knowledge about complex systems is one of the main goals of system dynamics
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Some slides from reza
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System Dynamics Group
System Dynamics Group
• Semi-structured interviews to measure the prior knowledge of participating experts on topics such as causal impact of policy option
• Different fields• A baseline in critical areas
Pre-test
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• Questionnaires• Response efficacy
• Self-efficacy
• Response cost
Pre-test
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• Scaffolded exercise (graphs over time)
• Written products (causal relationship, tradeoffs, risk perception)
• SBLE: testing their hypothesis
Treatment
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• Interview (learning, satisfaction, change in perception
• Measures are self-reports
• Qualitative and objective analysis on baseline
Post-test
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• NASPAA’s 2015 Student Simulation Competition, held February 28, 2015, was a resounding success! 181 students from 93 schools participated at 5 regional sites.
• Employed the ReThink Model.
NASPAA Student Competition
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• System Modelers: Jack Homer, Gary Hirsch, Bobby Milstein, Laura Landy, Elliot Fisher, John Sterman, Christina Ingersoll, Leigh Scherrer
• Science Advisors: Elliot Fisher (chair) and ~10 others
• Financial Sponsors: This work was sponsored by investments from the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation and California HealthCare Foundation, along with a variety of organizational allies and scores of collaborators across the country.
Developers of the ReThink Health Model
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Prior to the event• Each student should have chosen 7 policies within the
given series of policies in public health
• Reading instructions about logistics, interface and material
Individual Self-Test
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Prior to the event• Choosing a name for their team
• Gathering the needed material
Group Self-Test
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• In their group, they will design a package of health policy and finance options.
• Describing the rationale• Impact on each of the five criteria• Pitfalls
Task 1
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• Using simulator• Testing their first assumptions• Trying to improve their policy package• Describing the learning process• How the elements worked synergistically• Pitfalls
Task 2
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• Stakeholder analysis• Assigning stakeholder roles• Criticizing task two solution• Modifying task two solution to meet stakeholder
needs
Task 3
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• Give a 15 minute presentation of their final solution to their peers and a judge
• Answering their questions
Task 4
