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Investment Research Presentation
Month Day, 20XX
1
Syneos Health, Inc.NasdaqGS: SYNH
Sector: HealthcareSenior Analyst: Jose GrullonJunior Analysts: Garbis Chekerdjian, Ignacio
Fimbres
Spring 2018
2
Valuation Summary
Recommendation BUY
Recommendation Summary
Company (Ticker) SYNH
Current Trading Price (04-12-2018) $ 37.60
Recommendation BUY
Target Price $ 57.46
Upside Potential 52.80%
3
Agenda
REIT’sINDUSTRY DEFINITION & BREAKDOWN
COMPANY OVERVIEW
INDUSTRY TREND ANALYSIS
COMPANY TREND ANALYSIS
RISK ANALYSIS
FINANCIAL VALUATIONS
SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATION
4
Contract Research Organizations (CROs)– Definition: firms that provide outsourced drug development services, regulatory & scientific support, and
physical & human capital to help provide fully outsourced research solutions.
Industry Definition: CRO Market
Sources – Capital IQ
End Markets
Pharma & biotech industries, as well as educational & government research institutions.
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.NYSE: CRLMkt. Cap: $5.09 billion
ICON, plc.NasdaqGS: ICLRMkt. Cap: $6.48 billion
PRA Health Sciences, Inc.NasdaqGS: PRAHMkt. Cap: $5.55 billion
Syneos Health, Inc.NasdaqGS: SYNHMkt. Cap: $3.95 billion
IQVIA Holdings, Inc.NYSE: IQVMkt. Cap: $20.35 billion
5
Industry Breakdown: CRO Market
11.6%
10.6%
13.6%
21.2%
9.9%
2.2%
0.7%
9.3%
8.0%
8.0%4.9%
CRO Product Segmentation
Preclinical
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Phase IV
Bioanalytics
HEOR
Pharmacovigilance
Sources – Capital IQ, Frost & Sullivan
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
CRO Market Revenue Forecast (billions)
Increased Drug Development Spending & Pricing Pressures will drive demand for outsourced R&D and
clinical trial services
User-Friendly & Advanced Bioinformatics Tools will drive demand for CRO services as more biometric
platforms and customized data systems are needed
Strong M&A Activity will continue to drive value as industry consolidates to provide more services to drug
manufacturing companies
Pharma-Emerging Economies will grow at a 7.5% CAGR, driving demand for clinical trial activity in Asia
Strong Demand for Early Stage & Late Stage Clinical Trials will drive market penetration from 30.5% to
46.5% by 2021
Drivers
6
Industry Breakdown: Revenue Generation Model
Sources – IBISWorld, PRAH Form 10-K, Amgen
Input Biotech / Pharma CRO
Clinical Trial Testing
Raw Materials
Organic/Inorganic Chemical
Manufacturing
Laboratory Essentials
Medical Testing Equipment
Preclinical Trial Testing
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Manufacturing
Master Cell Line Production
Gene & Protein Duplication
Protein Synthesis
Biologic Preparation
Patient
Phase IV
Increased outsourcing for clinical trial services, along
with increased R&D expenditures, will drive
future value in the industry
7
Company Overview: Syneos Health, Inc.
Sources – Frost & Sullivan, Company Data
Founded in 1985 as INC Research, Inc.
Merged with InVentiv Health, Inc. in August 1, 2017
Rebranded as Syneos Health, Inc. in January 4, 2018
Top 3rd CRO, #1 CCO
Operates through its Clinical Solutions and Commercial Solutions segments to deliver end-to-end services to its customers
Syneos Health is the only fully integrated biopharmaceutical solutions organization.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Syneos Health Service Revenue (thousands)
Oncology
Central Nervous System
Cardiovascular
Infectious Diseases
12%
3%
4%
5%
4%
5%
6%
7%17%
37%
Market Share Analysis
Syneos Health
WuXi AppTec
Charles River Laboratories
ICON
PPD
PRA Health Sciences
Parexel International
Covance
QuintilesIMS
Others
8
Company Overview: Business & Financial Profile
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17
Syneos Health Quarterly Adjusted Revenue (thousands)
Clinical Solutions Commercial Solutions
YoY Growth of 2.6% due strong bookings partially offset by higher cancellations
Commercial Solutions Segment declined 16.4% due to lower FDA approvals in 2016, higher cancellations, and lower YoY new business awards
Better segment integration & cross-selling opportunities will drive future growth
Increasing drug approvals and lower DFA regulation will drive biopharmaceutical funding
31%
23%16%
4%
3%
11%
12%
Ending Backlog by Therapeutic Area
Oncology
CNS
General Medicine
CV & Met
Respiratory
FSP
Other
28%
13%
59%
Customer Concentration
Top 5 6-10 Remainder
Portfolio and customer diversity,
a healthy drug pipeline, and
integrated solutions, give Syneos
Health competitive advantage
over its peers
Sources – Company Data
9
Company Overview: Revenue Generation Model
Consulting
Communications
Selling Solutions
Medical Adherence
CROProduct Development
CCOCommercialization
Cu
sto
mer
Phase I
Full Service Phases II-IV
FSP
Real World Evidence
Data Analysis
Better integration between both segments will enable more cross-selling opportunities to customers, and will decrease operating costs in
the long run
Sources – Company Data
10
Industry Trend: Backlog Conversion Rates have Slowed Down
CRO Industry Backlog Conversion Rates
CRO Industry Revenue by Therapeutic Area
Oncology
Infectious Diseases
CNS Disorders
CVD
Metabolic Disorders
Respiratory & Allergy
Others
29%
14%
15%
13%
11%
13%5%
KEY TAKEAWAYIncreasing complexity of clinical
trials has reduced backlog conversion rates across the
industry, yet Syneos Health is able to maintain above-average
performance
Syneos Health Remains Healthy
• Therapeutic diversity encourages stable
revenue stream and backlog conversion in the
future
• Startup time 20% faster than average
• Backlog conversion rate of 14.5% vs. industry
average of 11.2%
Increased Complexity of Clinical Trials
• Rising popularity of rare diseases
• Slow growth in R&D spending
• Patient recruitment challenges
Sources – Company Data, Credit Suisse, Frost & Sullivan
11
Company Trend: Expected Realized Synergies Drive Growth
Management estimates annual cost synergies to be $125 M by 2020
Merger Summary
Deal Value: $4.6 billion
Current Realized Synergies: $13.2 million
Expected 2018 Realized Synergies: $65 - $70 million
Share Allocation: 53% INC Research / 47% InVentiv Health
Expand Integrated Solutions Platform to enable cross-selling opportunities
Improve commercial expertise and integrate these services across the
firm to customers of all sizes
Continued investments in big data
KEY TAKEAWAY
Rapid realization of synergies will drive costs down and fully
integrate service platform to deliver more value to the firm’s
customers via cross-selling opportunities
Sources – Company Data, Reuters
12
Risk Analysis
REIT’s
• Total debt of $2.98 billion
• Debt / Equity ratio of 98.7% vs. peer average of 94.8%
• Debt / EBITDA ratio of 5.13x vs. peer average of 2.92x
Ability to Meet Debt Obligations
• Larger currency fluctuation risks and transaction risks in the future
• Greater operating costs as a result of different regulations across the globe
Globalization of Clinical Trials
• Recent biopharmaceutical M&A activity may impair Syneos Health’s ability to gain new customers and new business awards
• May result in slower revenue growth and lower backlog conversion ratesProject Cancellations
Growing market penetration and peer competition, along with rising debt obligations, may threaten Syneos Health’s ability to remain competitive
Sources – Company Data, Frost & Sullivan, MarketLine, Credit Suisse, FactSet
13
Financial Valuations: Comparable Companies Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis
LTM data (04-12-2018)
Company Ticker EV Market Cap Revenue EBITDA Net Income P / E EV / EBITDA EV / Revenue
Syneos, Health, Inc. SYNH $ 6,608.6 $ 3,946.8 $ 3,102.0 18.7% 7.70% 16.5x 11.4x 2.1x
PRA Health Sciences, Inc. PRAH $ 6,349.8 $ 5,191.3 $ 1,948.5 18.6% 11.23% 23.7x 17.5x 3.3x
Medpace Holdings, Inc. MEDP $ 1,484.6 $ 1,262.9 $ 386.5 28.0% 15.65% 20.9x 13.7x 3.8x
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. CRL $ 5,879.7 $ 4,905.5 $ 1,793.6 21.6% 6.89% 39.7x 15.2x 3.3x
High 39.7x 17.5x 3.8x
Mean 28.1x 15.5x 3.5x
Median 23.7x 15.2x 3.3x
Low 20.9x 13.7x 3.3x
EV / EBITDA
LTM EBITDA $580.07
Implied Price Target $58.51
Upside (Downside) % 56%
EV / Revenue
LTM Revenue $3,102.0
Implied Price Target $70.51
Upside (Downside) % 90%
P / E
LTM EPS $ 2.28
Implied Price Target $ 53.99
Upside (Downside) % 44%
14
Financial Valuations: Discounted Cash Flow Model
REIT’s
Forecasted
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EBIT $ 558.72 $ 604.17 $ 661.29 $ 696.97 $ 748.66
- Taxes (178.79) (193.33) (211.61) (223.03) (239.57)
$ 379.93 $ 410.84 $ 449.68 $ 473.94 $ 509.09
+ D&A 85.20 89.93 94.60 98.23 101.56
- CAPEX (107.06) (101.15) (105.71) (106.84) (109.47)
- Δ in NWC (42.81) (45.47) (58.63) (35.46) (55.34)
Unlevered FCF $ 315.25 $ 354.14 $ 379.94 $ 429.87 $ 445.84
Net Present Value $ 1,521.57
Perpetuity Growth Method
Growth Rate 2.50%
Undiscounted TEV $ 8,492.07
Discounted TEV $ 5,811.42
DCF Value $ 7,333.00
Equity Value $ 4,671.24
Share Price $ 44.50
Implied Exit Multiple 9.99x
Exit Multiple Method
EBITDA Multiple 13.9x
Undiscounted TEV $ 11,818.12
Discounted TEV $ 8,087.55
DCF Value $ 9,609.12
Equity Value $ 6,947.37
Share Price $ 66.18
Implied Growth Rate 3.96%
Key Assumptions
Cost of Debt 3.53%
Cost of Equity 11.17%
WACC 7.88%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%
Exit Multiple 13.9x
Tax Rate 32.00%
15
Summary & Recommendation
Recommendation Summary
Company (Ticker) SYNH
Current Trading Price (04-12-2018) $ 37.60
Recommendation BUY
Target Price $ 57.46
Upside Potential 52.80%
Valuation Summary
Method Price Weight
Discounted Cash Flow
Perpetuity Growth Method $ 44.50 30%
Exit Multiple Method $ 66.18 30%
Comparable Company Analysis
P/E $ 53.99 10%
P/EBITDA $ 58.51 20%
EV/Sales $ 71.52 10%
Target Price $ 57.46
BUY
Rising demands for outsourced drug development services, along with rapid
realization of merger synergies and platform integration, will increase Syneos Health’s market share in the CRO industry, placing the firm above its peers as a profitable long-term investment.
16
Appendix
17
Historical Forecasted
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Revenue 3,241.3 3,102.0 3,478.0 3,671.0 3,862.0 4,010.0 4,146.0
% growth -4.3% 12.1% 5.5% 5.2% 3.8% 3.4%
COGS (excl. D&A) (2,194.3) (2,101.0) (2,347.2) (2,475.1) (2,601.0) (2,698.7) (2,788.7)
% of Revenue 67.70% 67.73% 67.49% 67.42% 67.35% 67.30% 67.26%
Gross Profit 1,047.0 1,001.1 1,130.8 1,195.9 1,261.0 1,311.3 1,357.3
% Margin 32.3% 32.3% 32.5% 32.6% 32.7% 32.7% 32.7%
SG&A (446.8) (419.5) (486.9) (501.8) (505.1) (516.1) (507.1)
% of Revenue 13.78% 13.52% 14.00% 13.67% 13.08% 12.87% 12.23%
EBITDA 600.2 581.6 643.9 694.1 755.9 795.2 850.2
% Margin 18.5% 18.7% 18.5% 18.9% 19.6% 19.8% 20.5%
Total Depreciation (78.4) (76.0) (85.2) (89.9) (94.6) (98.2) (101.6)
Total Operating Expenses (525.2) (495.5) (572.1) (591.8) (599.8) (614.3) (608.6)
Operating Income (EBIT) 521.8 505.6 558.7 604.2 661.3 697.0 748.7
% Margin 16.1% 16.3% 16.1% 16.5% 17.1% 17.4% 18.1%
Interest Expense (243.8) (144.7) (123.8) (123.8) (123.8) (123.8) (123.8)
Interest Income 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Net Interest Inc. (Exp) (243.5) (143.5) (123.1) (123.1) (123.1) (123.1) (123.1)
EBT Excl. Unusual Items 278.3 362.1 435.6 481.1 538.2 573.9 625.6
% Margin 8.6% 11.7% 12.5% 13.1% 13.9% 14.3% 15.1%
Income Tax Expense (96.9) (122.9) (139.4) (153.9) (172.2) (183.6) (200.2)
Net Income to Company 181.3 239.2 296.2 327.1 366.0 390.2 425.4
Minority Int. in Earnings - - - - - - -
Net Income 181.3 239.2 296.2 327.1 366.0 390.2 425.4
% Margin 5.6% 7.7% 8.5% 8.9% 9.5% 9.7% 10.3%
EPS $ 1.72 $ 2.28 $ 2.78 $ 3.07 $ 3.44 $ 3.67 $ 4.00
Income Statement
18
Income StatementHistorical Forecasted
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash And Equivalents 103.1 322.0 491.0 698.9 932.7 1,216.3 1,578.4
Accounts Receivable 385.3 1,016.0 1,139.1 1,202.3 1,264.9 1,313.4 1,357.9
Total Receivables 385.3 1,016.0 1,139.1 1,202.3 1,264.9 1,313.4 1,357.9
Inventory - - - - - - -
Prepaid Exp. 34.2 84.2 94.1 99.2 104.3 108.2 111.8
Total Current Assets 522.6 1,422.2 1,724.2 2,000.5 2,301.8 2,637.9 3,048.1
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 122.0 277.8 384.8 486.0 591.7 698.5 808.0
Accumulated Depreciation (63.6) (97.3) (182.5) (272.5) (367.1) (465.3) (566.9)
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 58.3 180.4 202.3 213.5 224.6 233.2 241.1
Goodwill 552.5 4,292.6 4,292.6 4,292.6 4,292.6 4,292.6 4,292.6
Other Intangibles 114.5 1,286.1 1,286.1 1,286.1 1,286.1 1,286.1 1,286.1
Deferred Tax Assets, Current & LT 14.7 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2
Other Long-Term Assets 25.9 84.5 84.5 84.5 84.5 84.5 84.5
Total Assets 1,288.5 7,285.9 7,609.8 7,897.3 8,209.7 8,554.4 8,972.5
Accounts Payable 23.7 58.6 65.4 69.0 72.5 75.2 77.7
Accrued Exp. 153.6 500.3 580.7 598.5 602.5 615.5 604.7
ST Debt 11.9 25.0 27.9 29.5 30.9 32.1 33.2
Total Current Liabilities 189.1 583.9 674.1 696.9 705.9 722.8 715.7
Long Term Debt 485.8 2,945.9 2,945.9 2,945.9 2,945.9 2,945.9 2,945.9
Capital Leases & Current Portion - 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8
Unearned Revenue, Non-Current 277.6 559.3 559.3 559.3 559.3 559.3 559.3
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. 8.3 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8
Other Non-Current Liabilities 26.2 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6
Total Liabilities 987.0 4,263.3 4,353.5 4,376.4 4,385.3 4,402.3 4,395.1
Common Stock 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Additional Paid In Capital 573.2 3,414.4 3,414.4 3,414.4 3,414.4 3,414.4 3,414.4
Retained Earnings (230.0) (370.5) (136.8) 127.9 431.3 759.1 1,184.4
Treasury Stock - - - - - - -
Comprehensive Inc. and Other (42.3) (22.4) (22.4) (22.4) (22.4) (22.4) (22.4)
Total Common Equity 301.5 3,022.6 3,256.3 3,520.9 3,824.4 4,152.1 4,577.5
Minority Interest - - - - - - -
Total Equity 301.5 3,022.6 3,256.3 3,520.9 3,824.4 4,152.1 4,577.5
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,288.5 7,285.9 7,609.8 7,897.3 8,209.7 8,554.4 8,972.5
19
Statement of Cash FlowsHistorical Forecasted
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Income 181.3 239.2 296.2 327.1 366.0 390.2 425.4
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 78.4 76.0 85.2 89.9 94.6 98.2 101.6
Less: Change in Net Working Capital - (285.9) (42.8) (45.5) (58.6) (35.5) (55.3)
Less: Capital Expenditures - - (107.1) (101.2) (105.7) (106.8) (109.5)
Operating Cash Flow 259.7 29.3 231.5 270.4 296.2 346.2 362.1
Initial Cash Balance - 38.6 322.0 491.0 698.9 932.7 1,216.3
Cash Available for Investors 259.7 67.8 553.5 761.4 995.2 1,278.8 1,578.4
Debt Additions (Repayments) (0.9) 1,780.5 - - - - -
Equity Additions (Share Repurchase) (64.5) - (62.5) (62.5) (62.5) (62.5) -
Historical Cash Adjustment (155.8) (1,526.3) - - - - -
Ending Cash Balance 38.6 322.0 491.0 698.9 932.7 1,216.3 1,578.4
20
DCF - Perpetuity Growth Sensitivity
WACC
– 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10%
Term
inal G
row
th
Rate
3.5% $ 101.12 $ 82.35 $ 68.47 $ 57.80 $ 49.36 $ 42.52 $36.88 $32.14
3.0% $ 84.10 $ 69.95 $ 59.07 $ 50.47 $ 43.50 $ 37.75 $32.92 $28.83
2.5% $ 71.46 $ 60.38 $ 51.61 $ 44.50 $ 38.64 $ 33.72 $29.54 $25.96
2.0% $ 61.71 $ 52.77 $ 45.53 $ 39.55 $ 34.54 $ 30.28 $26.62 $23.45
1.5% $ 53.96 $ 46.57 $ 40.48 $ 35.37 $ 31.03 $ 27.30 $24.07 $21.25
1.0% $ 47.65 $ 41.43 $ 36.22 $ 31.80 $ 28.00 $ 24.71 $21.83 $19.29
DCF - EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple Sensitivity
WACC
– 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10%
Term
inal E
BIT
DA
Mu
ltip
le
15.9 x $ 83.66 $ 81.47 $ 79.34 $ 77.27 $ 75.26 $ 73.30 $71.39 $69.54
14.9 x $ 77.72 $ 75.66 $ 73.67 $ 71.73 $ 69.84 $ 68.00 $66.22 $64.48
13.9 x $ 71.77 $ 69.86 $ 68.00 $ 66.18 $ 64.42 $ 62.71 $61.04 $59.42
12.9 x $ 65.83 $ 64.05 $ 62.32 $ 60.64 $ 59.01 $ 57.42 $55.87 $54.37
11.9 x $ 59.88 $ 58.24 $ 56.65 $ 55.10 $ 53.59 $ 52.13 $50.70 $49.31
10.9 x $ 53.94 $ 52.44 $ 50.98 $ 49.56 $ 48.18 $ 46.83 $45.53 $44.25
Sensitivity Analysis