Formal Political Analysis

Approaches to International Security

Prof. Robert F. Trager

Yale University

robert.trager@yale.eduFall Term, 2015

Office: Rosenkranz HallSeminar: R 1:30 3:20

Hours: T 3:00-4:00Syllabus

This course introduces students to major approaches and central topics in the field of international security. Topics considered include: the construction of international political orders, the causes of war, diplomatic negotiation, the reciprocal influence of domestic and international political processes, the sources of state preferences, and the evolution of the international system. The course focuses on contemporary theories and evidence. It will enable students to better understand the international events of the day without focusing directly on them. We shall examine theoretical discussions and statistical relationships, sweeping historical accounts and fine-grained analyses of particular events. Assessment Participation (40%): Coming to class prepared is something you do not just for yourself, but also for your fellow participants. A lively discussion with trenchant commentary is a public good! In addition to active participation in seminar, at least 1 hour before class each week, students must post two questions for the class to discuss or offer a brief critical comment on the readings to the class website.

Two Short Papers (20%): Approximately 5 pages in length, each weeks papers are due at the beginning of class. Students will choose weeks to write the papers, which should critically examine a set of arguments in the weeks readings, appraise a controversy in the literature, and/or discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the research designs employed. These papers must engage with and make an argument about the readings, not summarize them.Final Paper (40%): Students will write a 12-15 page paper that identifies a particular theoretical or empirical puzzle and then marshals argument and evidence to support the authors explanation. The most compelling alternative explanations for the phenomenon should be addressed explicitly. Students should plan to read some material from outside of the syllabus, but the paper is not expected to be exhaustively researched. Instead, the paper will be assessed on the quality of evidence cited, as well as the strength of the research design and the clarity of the argument. All relevant material from the syllabus should be addressed. Students are advised to discuss their topics with me well before beginning to write and to begin early. The paper is due on the last day of reading week.Laptop Policy The use of laptops in class is discouraged because an authoritative body of research shows that (1) when notes are taken on them, the material is retained less well than when notes are taken with pen and paper, and (2) unavoidable, mammalian responses to stimuli mean that laptops disrupt attention in spite of ones best intentions. So, students may use laptops to view pdfs of the readings, but for no other purpose during class discussions. Outline of the CourseWeek 1: Introduction

No Reading

Week 2: Motivations for WarFearon, James D. "Rationalist explanations for war." International Organization 49.03 (1995): 379-414. Architecture of Doom, Parts 1 through 5, available on YouTube. Search for Architecture of Doom Part 1 etc. Mearsheimer, John, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Chapter 9Braumoeller, Bear, Systemic Politics and the Origins of Great Power Conflict, American Political Science Review, 102.01 (2008): 77-93.Week 3: Managing Trust and PerceptionJervis, Robert.Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press, 2015. Pages 58-94.Kydd, Andrew H.Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton University Press, 2005, Chapter 3. (Try to understand and evaluate the graphs on pages 65 and 74.)

Kahneman, Daniel, and Jonathan Renshon. "Why Hawks Win."Foreign Policy (2007): 34-38. Israel and the Arabs: Elusive Peace, PBS Documentary, available on YouTube, Sections.Week 4: World War IRich, Norman. Great Power Diplomacy: 1814-1914. McGraw-Hill, 1992. Pages 408-445. Trager, Robert F. "Long-Term Consequences of Aggressive Diplomacy: European Relations after Austrian Crimean War Threats."Security Studies21.2 (2012): 232-265.Minutes of the Austrian Ministerial Council Meeting, July 7th, 1914. http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/austriancouncilmeeting.htmTrachtenberg, Marc. The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914.International Security(1990): 120-150.Week 5: Legitimating Principles and WarWimmer, Andreas.Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the Modern World. Cambridge University Press, 2012. Chapters 1, 3, 4.

Anonymous, The Mystery of ISIS. New York Review of Books, v. LXII, n. 13, August 13, 2015. Week 6: The Diplomacy of ViolenceSchelling, Thomas, Arms and Influence, Chapter 2.Trager, Robert F. "Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters."American Political Science Review104.02 (2010): 347-368.

Trager, Robert F., Diplomacy. Cambridge University Press, 2016. Excerpts from Chapters 1 and 2.Schultz, Kenneth, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, Cambridge University Press, 2001. Chapter 4.Fearon, James, Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes, American Political Science Review, 88.03 (1994): 577-592.Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961-63, Volume 5, Soviet Union, Memorandum of Kennedy-Khrushchev meeting in Vienna, June, 1961, Excerpts.

Week 7: Maintaining (Moral) Orders in the International SystemSimon, Steven. "The price of the surge."Foreign Affairs. 87.3 (2008).Kuperman, Alan J. 2008. The Moral Hazard of Humanitarian Intervention: Lessons from the Balkans. International Studies Quarterly 52(1): 49-80.

Fortna, Virginia Page. "Interstate Peacekeeping: Causal Mechanisms and Empirical Effects." World Politics56.04 (2004): 481-519.Leeds, Brett Ashley. Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes.American Journal of Political Science47.3 (2003): 427-439.Fair, C. ChristineandSumit Ganguly, An Unworthy Ally: Time for Washington to Cut Pakistan Loose, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2015.Week 8: Peace among DemocraciesOneal, John R., and Bruce Russett. "The Kantian peace: The pacific benefits of democracy, interdependence, and international organizations, 18851992." World Politics52.01 (1999): 1-37.

Dafoe, Allan. 2011. Statistical critiques of the democratic peace: caveat emptor. American Journal of Political Science 55(2): 247 262. Tomz, Michael R., and Jessica LP Weeks. "Public opinion and the democratic peace."American Political Science Review107.04 (2013): 849-865.Downes, Alexander and Jonathan Monten. 2012/13. Freedom by Force: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Democratization, International SecurityWeek 9: World War II: Agency or Context?Tooze, Adam.The Wages of Destruction: the Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy. Penguin, 2008. Chapter 3.Weisiger, Alex.Logics of War: Explanations for Limited and Unlimited Conflicts. Cornell University Press, 2013. Chapters 1, 4. Kertzer, Joshua D., et al. "Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Attitudes."The Journal of Politics76.03 (2014): 825-840. Week 10: What Causes Civil Wars?

Fearon, James and Laitin, David. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War,

American Political Science Review 97: 75-90.

Collier, Paul. 2009. War, Guns, and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places.

New York: Harper-Collins, pp.103-39.

Bates, Robert. 2008. When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century

Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.15-32, 97-128.

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min. 2010. Why Do Ethnic

Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis, World Politics 62(1): 87-119.Week 11: Revolutions in the International System

The Square, a documentary available on Netflix, in the library, and in a grainy

version, on YouTube.

Michael McFaul, Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution, International Security, Fall 2007, Vol. 32, No. 2: 4583.

Colgan, Jeff D. Domestic Revolutionary Leaders and International Conflict. World Politics65.04 (2013): 656-690.

David Carterand Hein Goemans, The Making of the Territorial Order: New Borders and the Emergence of Interstate Conflict, International Organization65.02 (2011): 275-309.Week 12: Terrorism and Nuclear ProliferationKydd, Andrew H., and Barbara F. Walter. "The Strategies of Terrorism." International Security31.1 (2006): 49-80.Lyall, Jason, Graeme Blair, and Kosuke Imai. "Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan."American Political Science Review107.04 (2013): 679-705.Gavin, Francis J. "Strategies of Inhibition: US Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation."International Security(2015).Kroenig, Matthew. "Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance."American Political Science Review103.01 (2009): 113-133.Davenport, Kelsey and Daryl G. Kimball, An Effective, Verifiable Nuclear Deal With Iran, Arms Control Association, July 14, 2015.Week 13: Are Global Norms of Violence Changing? Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature, Chapters 4, 5.Zacher, Mark W. "The territorial integrity norm: International boundaries and the use of force."International Organization55.02 (2001): 215-250.Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Michaela Mattes. "Alliance politics during the Cold War: aberration, new world order, or continuation of history?"Conflict Management and Peace Science24.3 (2007): 183-199.Entous, Adam, Gordon Lubold and Julian E. Barnes, U.S. Military Proposes Challenge to China Sea Claims, Wall Street Journal, 5/12/2015.CNN Exclusive on US-China confrontations in South China Sea, available here: http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/20/politics/south-china-sea-navy-flight/index.html