SWMCB DIVERSION RESEARCH STUDIES

Commercial and Organics Recycling

Lisa SkumatzSkumatz Economic Research Associates Inc (SERA)

762 Eldorado Drive, Superior CO 80027(303)494-1178 skumatz@serainc.com

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OUTLINE Scope of work Brief discussion of baseline generation

and diversion Goals and measurement Recommended strategies Q and A

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PROJECT SCOPE Two research topics:

Organics (food/paper) recycling (comm. and res.) Commercial recycling

Three project steps Secondary research- tools, goals, mandates, other

issues Review MPCA goals and strategies Provide recommendations

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BASELINE DATATotal Recycling

Problem Materials*

Waste Processing

Landfill Total Trash

TOTAL MSW Managed**

1,344,267 69,375 862,290 811,028 1,673,318 3,057,333 * Not managed by recycling or at processing facilities ** Total of recycling, problem materials, and trash, minus 29627 tons recycling at processing facilities to avoid double-counting

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BASELINE DATA- STREAMS

Total Organics in trash going to landfill / WTE

Total Divertible Organics in trash going to Landfill / WTE

Total Diverted in 2010 (From SWMCB 2010 SCORE)

Res. Organics 312,700 181,800 719 Commercial Organics 295,700 147,000 126,647 Total Organics 608,400 328,800 127,366

Total Recyclables in trash going to landfill / WTE (Recyclables only, no SSO)1

Recycling Tons Diverted 2010 (Recyclables only, no SSO) (From SWMCB 2010 SCORE)

Residential 272,300 295,900 Commercial 279,800 886,700 Total 552,100 1,215,9002

1 Calculated using 1999/2000 waste characterization material estimates. 2 Includes 33,300 tons of mechanical / hand-sort recycling which is not included as a line item category.

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PROCESSING CAPACITY Recycling- Reported (county interviews) not to

be a limiting factor Organics-Capacity may be a factor,

transportation and location is a challenge Facility Type Tons/year % of Capacity Food to people 500 0.3% Food to animals (direct) 11,900 6.0% Food to animals (feed) 75,300 38.3% Organics composting facilities 109,000 55.4% Total 196,700 100.0%

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GOALS AND MEASUREMENTMPCA recommended goals

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GOALS (N. America) Edward Island – goal 65% diversion (currently 61%) Metro Vancouver, BC – 70% diversion from landfill an WTE by 2015

(currently 55%) Portland Metro- 64% recovery goal by 2009 (currently 57%) Regional District of Nanaimo, BC- 75% by 2010, Zero Waste long

term (currently 61%) Marion County, OR- 55% diversion goal (currently 58%) Tompkins County, NY- 75% by 2016 (currently 60%) Alameda County Stopwaste, CA- 75% landfill diversion (state goal)

(currently 68%) San Francisco, CA – Zero waste by 2020 (currently 77%) Sunnyvale, CA - 75% landfill diversion (currently 66%) Santa Barbara, CA- 75% landfill diversion (currently 66%) Markham, ONT- 70% goal (currently 66%) Nantucket, MA (currently 92%)

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GOALS (N. America) Commercial Recycling (50-75% diversion, +80% part.) in

highest achieving communities (San Francisco, Seattle, Alameda County, Metro Vancouver, BC Portland, OR, Owen Sound, ONT, Prince Edward Island)

Organics Diversion- Average overall diversion 52%, Residential- 7-9lbs/hh/week (food & paper) (25-30 with YW), Businesses- 20-90% of targeted stream Renton, WA- 42% Kirkland, WA- 43% Castro Valley Sanitation District- 34% Enumclaw, WA – 34% Edmonds, WA (Diversion is for food scraps / food soiled

paper alone) – 13%

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Is the 60% Recycling Goal Realistic for the SWMCB Region?

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GOALS (COMMERCIAL)Source separated organics diverted from the waste stream and

the source reduction and yard waste credits are not included in the recycling calculations.

Figure 1.9: Tons Needed to Reach 60% Goal1 (Available Recycling Tons 552,1002)

Target Year Target Number Total Tons Needed Tons above 2010 (Recycling Only)

% of Stream

2015 45% - 48% 1,375,800-1,467,500 159,900 - 251,600 29% - 46% 2020 47% - 51% 1,436,900 - 1,559,200 221,100 - 343,400 40% - 62% 2025 49% - 54% 1,498,100 - 1,651,000 282,200 – 435,100 51% - 79%

2030 54%- 60% 1,651,000 - 1,834,400 435,100 - 618,500 79% - 112%

1 Estimates are based on 2010 SCORE data. Changes in populations and waste generation are not included in the calculations due to challenges in making accurate estimates of generation into the future. For example, while population has grown in Minnesota over the last decade (7.8% increase from 2000 to 2010) waste generation in the SWMCB Region has decreased by an average annual rate of -.9% (much of this can be attributed to the economic recession). Estimates of generation growth need to include not only population and past solid waste trends, but also a host of other economic factors and future trends. 2 Available recyclables calculated using 1999/2000 waste characterization study and 2010 reported disposal/diversion.

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GOALS AND IMPACTSTons Needed to Reach Recycling Goal by Year (Recycling Only) (Available Commercial Recycling Tons 279,800)

Year: 2015 (45% - 48%)

Tons above current level % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available If 100%1 from Commercial 159,900 – 251,600 57% - 90%

If 50% from Commercial 80,000 – 125,800 29% - 45% Year: 2020 (47% - 51%)

Tons above current level % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available If 100% from Commercial 221,100 – 343,400 79% - 123% If 50% from Commercial 110,500 – 171,700 40% - 61%

Year: 2025 (49% - 54%)

Tons above current level % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available

If 100% from Commercial 282,200 – 436,100 101% - 156% If 50% from Commercial 141,100 – 217,500 50% - 78%

Year: 2030 (54%- 60%)

Tons above current level % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available

If 100% from Commercial 436,100 – 618,500 156% - 221% If 50% from Commercial 217,500 – 309,300 78% - 111%

1 It may be the case that the residential sector ends up contributing 75% of the tons to meet the goal if the residential secto r incorporates aggressive programs, or the commercial sector may contribute 75%. The 50% and 100% estimates are included to allow the Region to scale the tons as needed.

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Is the 15% SSO Recycling Goal Realistic for the SWMCB Region?

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GOALS (SSO)

Facility capacity is an issue at 10.5% SSO diversion if no new facilities open

Year Goal ‘New’ Tons Needed % of Divertible Tons Available1

% of Total Organics Stream2

2015 3% - 6% None3 to 56,000 None to 16% None to 7%

2020 4% - 8% None to 117,200 None to 34% None to14%

2025 6% -12% 56,000 to 239,500 16% to 70% 7% to 28%

2030 9% -15% 147,800 to 331,200 43% to 97% 17% to 38%

1 Food scraps and food soiled paper 2 All organics including non-divertible SSO materials 3 No new tons are needed to meet the 3% or 4% goals.

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Recommended Strategies

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STRATEGY RESEARCH Examined existing in-house data from

organics programs (recent BMPs research for EPA Region 5)

Used in-house data to identify high performing commercial programs

Identified communities using the MPCA Plan strategies

Used existing data, interviews, published literature to identify programs with strong potential

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RECOMMENDATIONS Those that have the ‘biggest bang’ for the

Region Those that can increase access to

diversion for more generators As well as those that can be implemented

quickly/easy

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RECOMMENDATIONSUsed SERA WDAM to develop impact

estimates

Two ‘Packages’ of strategies1) High impact / low cost per ton2) Lower impact / higher cost per ton but

avoid mandates

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PACKAGE 1 ORDINANCE- Commercial fees embedded in trash

bills/mandatory pay for program (organics and recycling)

OUTREACH- Social marketing campaign, business technical assistance, targeted materials/generators (focus on Comm. SSO)

ORDINANCE/CONTRACTING- Curbside residential SSO with costs embedded for all. Switch to every-other-week trash

ORDINANCE- Require haulers to report tons collected and diverted for all sectors

ORDINANCE (Optional)– Mandatory Recycling and SSO or disposal ban

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% of Total Tons (Comm'l Recy) -

NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Comm'l

organics) - NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Resid'l organics)

- NEW tons

Cost/Ton Range - City

Cost/Ton Range-Generator

1 year Gov't Budget (in Thous $, across all SWMCB) Notes

Recommended Package 1 - High Diversion, Low City Cost Per Ton

$1000-3000

$25-150

$750-1500

PACKAGE 1

$1000-3000

$25-150

==> IF high diversion not met, trigger with Mandatory SSO / Ban for commercial recycling and/or organics 7.2% - 8.9% 5.6% - 8.1% 5.1% - 7.7% $0-$25

$350-500 for organics;

<$150/ton incl. YW $750-1500

Includes cost of inspecting random loads at faciliites to enforce; can ramp down / up if needed.

TOTAL PACKAGE 1 (without Mandatory) 3.0% - 5.5% 1.7% - 5.2% 3.5% - 6.5% $12 $227 $1.2-3.7 mill.TOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR PACKAGE 1 (without Mandatory, thousands) 50 - 92 29 - 87 58 - 109

Total tons div erted: 140K-

290K (rounded)

TOTAL PACKAGE 1 (with Mandatory) 7.2% - 11.6% 5.6% - 8.6% 5.1% - 7.2% $1.9-5.2 millionTOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR PACKAGE 1 (with mandatory, thousands) 121 - 194 94 - 143 86 - 121

Total tons div erted: 300K-

460K (rounded)

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% of Total Tons (Comm'l Recy) -

NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Comm'l

organics) - NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Resid'l organics)

- NEW tons

Cost/Ton Range - City

Cost/Ton Range-Generator

1 year Gov't Budget (in Thous $, across all SWMCB) Notes

Recommended Package 1 - High Diversion, Low City Cost Per Ton

Commercial Program Fees Embedded in Trash Bill OR mandatory pay for service - Recycling AND organics 2.5% - 4.0% 1.5% - 4.0% - $2-$6

-$25 to $500 (higher for small

generator, lower (with potential

savings) for large $200-600

Excludes (relatively low) cost for administration / auditing

Commercial Technical Assistance and Social Marketing to reach out; target outreach on sectors and high volume materials (OCC, paper, organics) in appropriate (targeted) sectors 0.5% - 1.5% 0.2% - 1.2% - $50-$100

-$25 to $500 (higher for small

generator, lower (with potential

savings) for large $1000-3000

Depends on budget assigned by city - well-designed technical assistance can continue to pull more tons from the sector at reasonable cost/ton.

Residential organics service added with embedded fee, trash switched to every other week (organics waste diversion incidental to yard waste collection, but only organics waste reported here). Establishes curbside yard / organics collection. - - 3.5% - 6.5% Low

$350-500 for organics;

<$150/ton incl. YW $25-150

Adds more than double these tons in addition as yard waste diversion, which lowers effective cost per ton to $100-200/ton for generators.

Hauler reporting of tonnages to track progress, ability to audit books of haulers to assure they are offering / providing the required services (above) 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% Low $0

Costs assume less than 1 day of City staffer FTE per hauling company to request, analyze data; assume 5 firms per county. (less than $30K for 6 counties)

==> IF high diversion not met, trigger with Mandatory SSO / Ban for commercial recycling and/or organics 7.2% - 8.9% 5.6% - 8.1% 5.1% - 7.7% $0-$25

$350-500 for organics;

<$150/ton incl. YW $750-1500

Includes cost of inspecting random loads at faciliites to enforce; can ramp down / up if needed.

TOTAL PACKAGE 1 (without Mandatory) 3.0% - 5.5% 1.7% - 5.2% 3.5% - 6.5% $12 $227 $1.2-3.7 mill.

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PACKAGE 1 ADD-ON

More expensive, but complementary programs to Package 1 Pgm #s

% of Total Tons (Comm'l Recy) -

NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Comm'l

organics) - NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Resid'l

organics) - NEW tons

Cost/Ton

Range -

City

Cost/Ton Range-

Generator

1 y ear Gov 't

Budget (in

Thous $,

across all

SWMCB) Notes

Residential social marketing to outreach on organics / yard (and recycling) - only organics tons reported here. O1 - - 0.8% - 1.5% $250-500 n/a $3000-$8,000

Small businesses (1CY) may use residential recycling program with no fee C7,O2 0.5% - 0.7% - - $200-300 n/a $2000-3000

May be spread over several years; costs arise because many businesses, small percent of tons.

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PACKAGE 2 ORDINANCE- Haulers must ‘offer’ recycling and SSO to all

accounts POLICY / CONTRACT- Small businesses may use residential

recycling services (with same fee) INCENTIVE /OUTREACH- Recycling co-ops (commercial) OUTREACH- Social marketing campaign, business technical

assistance, targeted materials/generators (focus on Comm. SSO)

POLICY / INCENTIVE– Continue / expand schools programs ORDINANCE- Require haulers to report tons collected and

diverted for all sectors

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Pgm #s

% of Total Tons (Comm'l Recy) -

NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Comm'l

organics) - NEW tons

% of Total Tons (Resid'l

organics) - NEW tons

Cost/Ton Range - City

Cost/Ton Range-Generator

1 year Gov't Budget (in Thous $, across all SWMCB) Notes

Optional Package 2 - Avoid Mandates

Require haulers to "OFFER" recycling and organics service, with fees NOT embedded in trash rates. C9, O5 0.1% - 0.3% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% $4- $50

-$25 to $500 (higher for small

generator, lower, with

potentiall more savings, for

large) $70 - $250Small businesses (1 CY) may use residential recycling program WITH fee (same as res cost & containers) C7 0.1% - 0.2% - - Low $300-$600 LowRecycling Cooperatives, to help aggregate tons from multiple small businesses to make it practical for haulers to collect materials from these businesses. C8 0.1% 0.3% $0-$50 n/a $100-200Commercial Technical Assistance and Social marketing to reach out on new program initiatives for Commercial sector

C1, C2, C3, O1, O2, O10 0.5% - 2.0% 0.3% - 1.5% - $50-$100-$25 to $500 (higher for small generator, lower, with potentiall more savings, for large) $1000-3000

Continue and expand schools organics diversion programs O8 - 0.1% - 0.2% - $200-$400 n/a $500-1000

Hauler reporting of tonnages to track progress, ability to audit books of haulers to assure they are offering / providing the required services (above) C6, O4 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% Low $0

Costs assume less than 1 day of City staffer FTE per hauling company to request, analyze data; assume 5 firms per county. (less than $30K for 6 counties)

TOTAL PACKAGE 2 0.8% - 2.7% 0.5% - 1.9% 0.1% - 0.2% $17 $37 $1.6-4.4 mill.TOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR PACKAGE 2 (thousands) 13 - 45 8 - 32 1 - 3 Total tons diverted = 22K-80K

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GOALS AND IMPACTS

Pkg 1: Commercial 58,000 to 117,000 If mandated / banned 121,000 to 194,000Pkg 2: 13,000 to 45,000

Year: 2015 Tons above current level % of Recycling Tons Available If 100% from Commercial 159,900 – 251,600 57% - 90% If 50% from Commercial 80,000 – 125,800 29% - 45% Year: 2020

Tons above current level % of Recycling Tons Available If 100% from Commercial 221,100 – 343,400 79% - 123% If 50% from Commercial 110,500 – 171,700 40% - 61% Year: 2025

Tons above current level % of Recycling Tons Available If 100% from Commercial 282,200 – 436,100 101% - 156% If 50% from Commercial 141,100 – 217,500 50% - 78% Year: 2030

Tons above current level % of Recycling Tons Available

If 100% from Commercial 436,100 – 618,500 156% - 221%

If 50% from Commercial 217,500 – 309,300 78% - 111%

Impacts of Package 1 (no mandate) 58K-117K tons

Impacts of Package 1 (with mandate) 121K –194K

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GOALS AND IMPACTFigure 1.18: Organics Recycling Goals and Impacts of Programs

Year Goal ‘New’ Tons Needed % of Divertible Tons Available1 % of Total Organics Stream2 2015 3% - 6% None3 to 56,000 None to 17% None to 7%

2020 4% - 8% None to 117,200 None to 36% None to14%

2025 6% -12% 56,000 to 239,500 16% to 73% 7% to 28%

2030 9% -15% 147,800 to 331,200 45% to 101% 17% to 39%

Several strategies presented themselves as programs

1 Food scraps and food soiled paper 2 All organics including non-divertible SSO materials 3 No new tons are needed to meet the 3% or 4% goals.

Impacts of Package 1 (no mandate) 87K-196K tons

Impacts of Package 1 (w/ mandate) 180K-264K tons Pkg 1: Organics 87,000 to 196,000

If mandated / banned 180,000 to 264,000Pkg 2: 9,000 to 25,000

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INCLUDED IN REPORT Detailed information on each program

(where, how, advantages, pitfalls) and more programs (comm.(14) SSO (17)

Discussion of mandatory recycling / bans

Example cities / programs Expanded inventory of commercial

and organics programs identified

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QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION:

Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D. Principal, SERA, Inc.Juri FreemanSr. Analyst762 Eldorado Drive, Superior, CO 80027Phone: 303/494-1178 email: skumatz@serainc.com freeman@serainc.com