Sustainability of GroundwaterResources in the North China Plain

Jie Liu, Guoliang Cao, and Chunmiao Zheng

AbstractThe North China Plain (NCP) has one of the most depleted aquifers in the worlddue to over-pumping to meet the needs of fast economic growth and intensive irri-gation. With limited and temporally uneven precipitation, nearly 70% of the totalwater supply in the NCP comes from groundwater to maintain its food basket rolein China and to support the fast economic development and population growth. Thiscauses continuing water table declines and results in adverse consequences such asland subsidence, sea water intrusion, drying up of rivers and wetlands, and deteri-oration of the ecosystem. This chapter first provides an overview of general waterresource information for the NCP and then discusses the methodologies and toolsthat can be used to address the questions pertinent to sustainability of groundwaterresources. A regional groundwater flow model covering the entire NCP is presentedto quantify the groundwater flow system and overall flow budgets. The groundwa-ter flow model will be a useful tool for future impact assessment of a wide rangeof water resource management options for the NCP. The findings and insights fromthis study will have important implications for other parts of the world under similarhydrogeologic conditions.

KeywordsNorth China Plain • NCP • Groundwater modeling • Sustainable water management

C. Zheng (�)College of Engineering, Center for Water Research, PekingUniversity, Beijing, China; Department of Geological Sciences,University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USAe-mail: czheng@ua.edu

Introduction

North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP), also referred as theHuang–Huai–Hai Plain, is a common name for theplain areas of three major river basins in northernChina, namely, the Huang (Yellow), Huai, and HaiRiver Basins. It covers an area of 320,000 km2 witha total population in excess of 200 million and is thelargest alluvial plain of eastern Asia (Kendy et al.,

69J.A.A. Jones (ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources, International Year of Planet Earth,DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_5, © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

70 J. Liu et al.

2003). From the viewpoint of water resource manage-ment and economic importance, a narrower definitionof the NCP is more commonly used – the region bor-dering on the north by the Yan Mountains, on thewest by the Taihang Mountains, to the south by theYellow River, and to the northeast by the Bohai Gulf(Fig. 1). This region includes all the plains of HebeiProvince, Beijing Municipality, Tianjin Municipality,and the northern parts of the plains in Shandongand Henan Provinces. The total area of this narrowlydefined NCP is 136,000 km2 with a population around111 million. In the subsequent discussions of thischapter, the NCP refers to the narrower definitiondescribed above. It was in the NCP that the ancientChinese civilization originated as a society developedfrom agriculture and has since flourished for morethan 4,000 years (Postel, 1999). Till today, the NCPremains the predominant national center of wheat andmaize production and an extremely important eco-nomic, political, and cultural region of China, pro-ducing 10% of the nation’s foodstuff and 12% of thenation’s GDP.

In the NCP, water is the most vital and limitingresource (Kendy et al., 2003). On average, the annualprecipitation is around 500 mm, which accounts foronly 335 m3 of renewable water resources per capitaper year (China Geological Survey, 2005). This is onlyone-third the threshold value of 1,000 m3 per capitaadopted in the widely used Falkenmark indicator or“water stress index” (Falkenmark et al., 1989), denot-ing a region experiencing water scarcity. In addition,precipitation fluctuates widely from one year to thenext, with 50–80% of the total annual precipitationconcentrated in the summer monsoon months (Julyto September). Finite clean surface water is divertedinto cities for municipal use, leaving industries andagriculture to compete over a diminishing groundwa-ter resource. Average annual groundwater pumpingfrom the shallow aquifer shows an obvious increas-ing trend (Fig. 2), and in the year 2000, approximately74% of the annual water supply comes from ground-water pumping. Due to surface water interceptionby reservoirs and groundwater over-pumping, natu-ral streams and rivers have almost completely ceased,

Fig. 1 Location of the North China Plain

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 71

Fig. 2 Annual groundwater pumping from the shallow aquifer of the NCP from 1990 to 2000

wetland areas have been shrinking, groundwater lev-els are declining steadily, salt water is intruding intowhat were previously fresh water aquifers, and in manyplaces, the land surface is subsiding (Kendy et al.,2003).

The NCP aquifer system has become one of themost overexploited in the world (Ministry of WaterResources of PRC et al., 2001; Kendy et al., 2003;Liu et al., 2008). In 2007, American newspaper NewYork Times reported on the water scarcity problem inthe NCP and stated that the aquifers below the NCPmay be drained within 30 years (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/09/28/world/asia/choking_on_growth_2.html). The water scarcity problem in theNCP has drawn great attention from all over the world,because many areas in other countries are experiencingthe same problem. For example, the Ogallala Aquiferin the USA, the Northern Sahara Aquifer System, theKaroo Aquifers in South Africa, and the aquifers inYemen, India, and Mexico are all being drained todangerously low levels. The study of the sustainabilityof groundwater resources in the NCP will not onlyhelp identify ways for alleviating water scarcity of thisspecific region but also provide a good case study forsimilarly water stressed regions in other parts of theworld.

Purpose and Organization

The direct motivation for this research arises from theurgent needs to address the serious water and environ-mental stresses caused by extensive over-pumping ofgroundwater and competitive water uses in the NCP.The purpose is to better understand the water scarcityproblem in the NCP and use case study to illus-trate how the sustainability or the lack thereof can bequantified and addressed through numerical modeling.This study of the NCP is also intended to provide anillustrative example for similar regions, such as north-west India, parts of Pakistan, western USA, and theMiddle East, which serve as the bread baskets andrice bowls for local economies but are all experiencingover-pumping of groundwater.

A clear understanding of the aquifer system andthe water resource situation is a prerequisite for sus-tainable development and management of groundwa-ter resources. Therefore, the hydrogeology and waterresources of the NCP will first be introduced. Then themethodologies and tools that can be used to addresssustainability and sustainable groundwater develop-ment and management will be reviewed. Finally, theconcepts and techniques of groundwater sustainabilityanalysis are illustrated through the development of aregional groundwater flow model for the NCP.

72 J. Liu et al.

Hydrogeology and Water Resources

Climate

The NCP is situated in the warm temperate, semi-arid,monsoon climatic zone of Eurasia, characterized bycold, dry winters (December to March) and hot, humidsummers (July to September). The average annual pre-cipitation is 500–600 mm, with 50–80% of the totalconcentrated in the summer monsoon months (July toSeptember). Precipitation fluctuates widely from oneyear to the next, less than 400 mm in dry years andmore than 800 mm in wet years (Fig. 3). Spatially,the coastal area has relatively more precipitation thanthe average (600–650 mm), while the central plain hasan annual average precipitation of less than 500 mm,because of the rain shadow effect of mountains andthe subsidence of airflow from the north (Zhang et al.,2006).

The average annual temperature is 10–15◦C, withthe lowest temperature of –1.8 to 1◦C appearing inJanuary and the highest temperature of 26–32◦C inJuly. The annual total sunshine hours are around2,400–3,100 h and the frostless period is about 200days. The annual evaporation from water surface is900–1,400 mm, being steady in January and February,starting to increase in March, accelerating from

April to May, reaching the maximum from June toSeptember, and decreasing after October. Evaporationincreases with temperature and decreases with increas-ing latitude. This unevenly distributed precipitationand evaporation, spatially and temporally, have a directimpact on the distribution of groundwater resourcesand saline lands (Zhang et al., 2006).

Surface Water and Aquifer System

Besides the three major river systems – the YellowRiver, the Hai River, and the Luan River – there arenearly 60 small rivers like the Tuhai and the MajiaRiver in the NCP. However, with the decrease of pre-cipitation and the interception by reservoirs upstream,most of the river channels in the NCP are perenni-ally drying up or only have short-term flows during theflooding season.

The Yellow River is the second largest river inChina, located along the southern boundary of theNCP. The length of the Yellow River within the NCPis 755 km, among which about 345 km in HenanProvince and about 410 km in Shandong Province.The Yellow River is well known for its high sedi-ment content and the downstream is usually called the“aboveground river,” with the elevation of the river

Fig. 3 Precipitation variations from 1956 to 2000 on the Hai River Basin including NCP. (Hai River Commission, 2000)

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 73

bed 3–7 m higher than the surrounding ground sur-face. It constitutes the divide of both surface waterand groundwater watersheds. The runoff of the YellowRiver is uneven within a year, mostly concentrated inthe flooding season. Based on the data from 1980 to1989 at Huayuankou Station, the annual average waterlevel of the Yellow River is 92.12 m. The “above-ground” characteristic of the Yellow River providesfavorable condition for laterally recharging groundwa-ter (Zhang et al., 2006).

The aquifer system in the NCP is composed ofporous Quaternary formations (Fig. 4). Accordingto the Institute of Hydrogeology and EnvironmentalGeology (IHEG), Chinese Academy of GeologicalSciences (CAGS), the deposits can be divided intofour major aquifer layers (I–IV in Fig. 4) with thethickness of each between 20 and 350 m. All aquiferunits are composed of permeable sand and gravellayers interbedded with fine sand and silt aquitardlayers. The first aquifer unit from the top is uncon-fined, while the other three are confined but may con-vert to unconfined when significant drawdown occurs.The top two layers are traditionally called “shallowaquifer” and the bottom two are referred to as “deep

aquifer”. Hydraulically they are connected and pump-ing wells have been extracting groundwater from bothof them. Porous Quaternary deposits provide favor-able conditions for vertical groundwater recharge, andthe infiltration from precipitation constitutes the mostimportant groundwater recharge source in the studyarea. The piedmont area of the Taihang Mountains,which lies along the western boundary of the studyarea, is an important source of lateral groundwaterrecharge. According to the “Water Resources Bulletin”released in 2006 by the Ministry of Water Resources ofChina, the available groundwater resource in the NCPin the year of 2006 is 15.7 billion m3.

Water Resources in the NCP

The Ministry of Water Resources of China releasesthe “Water Resources Bulletin” of major river basinsin China every year. The water resources informationof the NCP was extracted from the latest availableWater Resources Bulletin (2006) for the Hai RiverBasin, which includes both the plain areas discussedin this study and the mountain terrains. The total water

Fig. 4 Cross section of the North China Plain in the west–east direction showing the general hydrogeological settings (modifiedfrom Chen et al., 2005)

74 J. Liu et al.

Table 1 Water resource statistics (in the year of 2006) for the Hai River Basin that includes the North Chain Plain (unit: 109 m3)

Region Beijing Tianjin Hebeia Henan Shandong Total

Total area (km2) 16,800 119,20 171,624 15,336 30,942 246,622

Precipitation 7.527 5.580 74.326 8.033 14.454 109.92

Total availablewater resources

Surface water 0.667 0.662 4.044 1.109 0.552 7.034

Groundwater 1.816 0.443 9.067 1.985 2.37 15.68

Total 2.483 1.105 13.11 3.094 2.922 22.71

Water supply Surface Water 0.636 1.610 3.845 1.532 4.846 12.469

Groundwater 2.434 0.676 16.230 2.666 1.832 23.838

Other 0.36 0.010 0.066 0.002 0.083 0.521

Total 3.43 2.296 20.142 4.200 6.761 36.829

Water use Agricultural 1.205 1.343 15.036 2.851 5.781 26.216

Industrial 0.620 0.443 2.609 0.819 0.363 4.854

Municipal 1.443 0.461 2.379 0.453 0.577 5.313

Ecological 0.162 0.049 0.117 0.077 0.039 0.444

Total 3.430 2.296 20.142 4.200 6.760 36.828

Waterconsumption

27.052

aHebei Province listed above includes not only the plain areas but also the mountain terrains. Data source: Water Resources Bulletinof 2006 for the Hai River Basin that includes the NCP.

resources amount, water supply, water use, and waterconsumption can be summarized in Table 1.

The statistical data in Table 1 are for the entireHai River Basin, which as mentioned above, includesthe NCP as defined in this study (136,000 km2) plusmountain terrains to the west of the NCP (approxi-mately 110,000 km2). Therefore, the total availablewater resource of about 22 billion m3 is actually over-estimated for the NCP as defined in this study. Thewater uses, including agricultural, industrial, munici-pal, and ecological, however, are mainly concentratedon the plain area. Therefore, the total water uses (over36 billion m3) reasonably reflect the actual situationin the NCP. Even if water consumption is consid-ered, that is, water uses minus the return flows to thehydrologic system, the net value of 27 billion m3 isstill greater than the total available water resources.From Table 1 it can be seen that the water usesare nearly equal to the water supply, because the“supply-decided” water use model has been adoptedin China to coordinate the relationship between waterresources and social/economic development. However,actual consumptive water uses are more than the totalavailable water resources (by approximately 5 billion

m3 or nearly 22% of total available water resources).This indicates that the NCP is using water resourceseither from the groundwater storage or from outsidesources. The numbers in Table 1 show that groundwa-ter accounts for approximately 62% of the total watersupply.

Projected Water Demands, Water Supply,and Deficit

Future water demands have been projected based onthe increasing rate of population, economic develop-ment, and ecological water requirements. The waterdemands in three major categories (municipal, rural,and ecological water demands) were projected for theyears of 2010 and 2030 (Table 2). Compared with thesituation in 1998, municipal water demand will be dou-bled by 2030, and ecological water demands will alsohave an obvious increase, while rural water demandswill decrease slightly (Fig. 5).

By recycling wasted water, implementing new watersupply projects, and utilizing sea water (shown as “oth-ers” in Table 3 and Fig. 6), the total surface water

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 75

Table 2 Projected water demands for 2010 and 2030 compared with the 1998 data (unit: 109 m3)

Regions Municipal Rural Ecological Total

1998 2010 2030 1998 2010 2030 2010 2030 1998 2010 2030

Beijing 1.99 2.60 3.27 1.89 1.79 1.59 3.88 4.39 4.86

Tianjin 1.24 2.16 2.72 2.29 2.22 2.13 3.53 4.38 4.85

Hebei 2.73 4.71 6.84 13.79 12.73 12.49 16.52 17.43 19.32

Henan 0.69 1.02 1.44 1.99 1.89 1.76 2.68 2.91 3.20

Shandong 0.71 1.14 1.60 7.22 6.94 6.90 7.93 8.08 8.51

NCP 7.36 11.63 15.87 27.18 25.57 24.87 6.58 10.01 34.54 43.78 50.75

Note: The data are from the report of the Ministry of Water Resources (1998).

Fig. 5 Projected water demands for three main water sectors in 2010 and 2030

Table 3 Projected annual water supply in 2010 and 2030 (unit: 109 m3)

Region Surface water Groundwater Othersa Total

1998 2010 2030 1998 2010 2030 1998 2010 2030 1998 2010 2030

Beijing 1.44 1.51 1.46 2.20 2.37 2.15 0.21 0.45 0.62 3.84 4.33 4.23

Tianjin 1.67 1.78 1.79 0.65 0.60 0.56 0.63 0.51 0.54 2.95 2.89 2.89

Hebei 5.53 5.38 5.53 10.76 10.35 10.20 1.88 2.63 3.08 18.17 18.37 18.81

Henan 1.18 1.28 1.18 1.62 1.60 1.54 0.6 0.62 0.68 3.40 3.50 3.40

Shandong 0.64 0.58 0.58 2.40 2.50 2.50 3.66 3.70 3.82 6.70 6.78 6.90

NCP 10.46 10.53 10.54 17.63 17.42 16.95 6.98 7.91 8.74 35.06 35.87 36.23

Note: The data are from the report of the Ministry of Water Resources (1998).aOthers represent the water supply diverted from the Yellow River, recycled wasted water, and sea water.

supply will have slightly increased by the year of 2010and 2030. But compared with the increasing trendof the total water demands, total water supply is notprojected to increase significantly. Moreover, ground-water supply may decrease slightly. The projected

annual water supply of the five provinces and munic-ipalities in 2010 and 2030 is summarized in Table 3(Ministry of Water Resources of PRC, 1998). Overall,the municipal water demands are projected to be morethan doubled while the rural water demands would be

76 J. Liu et al.

Fig. 6 Projected water supply from various sources in 2010 and 2030

either steady or slightly decrease. The ecological waterdemands would have a significant increase, reflecting anew awareness on environmental protection.

Based on Tables 2 and 3, it can be seen that thedeficit between water demands and water supply isaround 7.9 billion m3 by 2010 and will grow to 14.5billion m3 by 2030. Even though the middle route ofthe South-to-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project, aplan to divert water from the upper, middle, and lowerreaches of the Yangtze River to the northern and north-western parts of China, is planned to divert 13 billionm3 water to the NCP by the year 2050 and play a pos-itive role in alleviating the water shortage there in thelong run, the transferred water will only target limitedareas and mainly for municipal and industrial wateruses (Ruan et al., 2004). Therefore, the deficit betweenthe growing water demands and the finite water supplywill become more and more acute.

Key Issues in Water Resources Developmentand Management

It is an undisputed fact that the NCP is facing seri-ous water shortage. Most rivers have been drying upor been changed to seasonal rivers. The groundwa-ter table declines continuously and brings a seriesof adverse consequences – land subsidence, seawa-ter intrusion, wetland loss, and pumping cost increase.Competition for water resources among different water

use sectors becomes more and more intense. Besidesthe challenges in finite water quantity, water qualitydegradation is another important issue. According tothe “Water Resources Bulletin” of the Hai River Basinin 2006, the discharged wastewater amount had beendoubled from 1980 to 2000. The surface water qualityshows an obvious trend of deterioration, and the pol-lutants gradually enter groundwater, with an obviousincrease of some important water quality indexes likeNH4-N, NO3-N, and Cl–. How to sustainably utilizeand manage the finite water resources to meet vari-ous demands as well as maintain an acceptable waterquality and eco-environment is a huge challenge. Inaddition, the middle route of the SNWT project isplanned to divert 13 billion cubic meters water to theNCP region by 2050. To what degree will it alleviatethe water shortage in the NCP and how will it impactthe eco-environment of this area will be an importantissue as well.

Methodologies and Tools to AddressSustainability

General Definition of GroundwaterSustainability

Sustainability is a complex subject which inte-grates the considerations from social, economic, andenvironmental aspects. In a broader sense, sustainable

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 77

development includes conservation of the environ-ment, economic efficiency, and social equity. The best-known definition of sustainability or sustainable devel-opment is by the World Commission on Environmentand Development in 1987, which defines sustainabil-ity as “forms of progress that meet the needs of thepresent without compromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their needs.” This definition sets anideal premise and a general concept but is not specificenough for real application.

Kinzelbach et al. (2003) brought forward the def-inition of sustainable water management, which is amanagement practice that generally avoids irreversibleand quasi-irreversible damage to the water resourceand the natural resources linked to it and conservesin the long term the ability of the resource to extendits services. They stated that usually it is easier todefine what is unsustainable than what is, and non-sustainable is a practice which is hard to change butcannot go on indefinitely without running into a crisis.Non-sustainability shows in (1) depletion of a finiteresource, which cannot be substituted; (2) accumula-tion of substances to harmful levels; (3) unfair alloca-tion of a resource leading to conflict; and (4) runawaycosts. The specific definition of groundwater sustain-ability can be specified as (1) abstraction rate less thannatural replenished rate; (2) limitation of drawdowns;(3) guarantee of minimum downstream flow; and (4)prevention of groundwater pollution (Kinzelbach et al.,2003).

In this study the authors mainly explore the sus-tainability of groundwater resources in the NCP fromthe consideration of natural science. Interdisciplinarystudy to explore sustainability comprehensively isindispensible, but a clear understanding of the naturalgroundwater resources underlying physical flow sys-tems is a prerequisite for comprehensive sustainabilityanalysis.

Methodologies and Scientific Toolsfor Sustainability Studies

Since sustainability is a complex, multi-faceted con-cept, which may be defined anew for specific circum-stances, the methodologies for sustainability studiesmay also depend on each specific case. However, somemethodologies have been commonly used and serveas the basis for sustainable groundwater management.

Those include (1) using models (flow and/or transport)and experimental methods to describe the physical sys-tem; (2) integrating with surface and soil water toexplore the entire hydrologic system; (3) optimiza-tion and prediction; (4) possibly coupling with eco-nomic and societal preferences; and (5) coping withuncertainty (Kinzelbach et al., 2003). Groundwatermodeling is considered an essential tool of waterresources studies. Groundwater models can repro-duce the historical hydrodynamics, predict the futurevariations, optimize the water resources development,and test different water resources management sce-narios in a convenient and economical way. Yet thecurrent methods of analysis and complexity of thesystems often cause uncertainty that casts doubts onthe credibility of modeling. Thus independent datasources for model calibration and verification areindispensible. Experimental methods and remote sens-ing techniques are essential supplementary means tomodeling.

Socio-economic Considerations

It is recognized that sustainable development includesthree “pillars” – environmental, economic, and social.The scope of social and economic considerationswithin sustainable development concept is obviouslyvery wide; however, it is becoming increasingly clearthat there is a need for more integration and bal-ance among the pillars of sustainable development. AsKinzelbach et al. (2003) mentioned, “Natural sciencehas to interface to economics and implementation inorder to be really useful.” The sustainable developmentconcept is not a simple project of the natural sciences,instead it needs broad and cross-disciplinary analysis.The most important part of sustainable developmentis how to practically put sustainability principles intoactions in the real world.

Regional Groundwater Flow Modeling

In this section, we describe the development of aregional groundwater flow model for the NCP. Sucha model is essential for understanding the groundwaterflow system in the NCP and for evaluating the variousoptions for sustainable management of groundwaterresources in the NCP. The focus of this section is

78 J. Liu et al.

to present the results of model construction and cali-bration. An overall flow budget for the NCP will bequantified and discussed. However, a more comprehen-sive analysis of various management options for NCPgroundwater resources will be presented elsewhere inthe future.

Conceptual Model

The NCP groundwater system can be describedas three-dimensional, heterogonous, anisotropic, andtransient flow system. As described in section“Surface Water and Aquifer System”, the Quaternary

Fig. 7 (a) Horizontal discretization of the model domain and boundary conditions and (b) vertical discretization

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 79

formations in the NCP can be divided into four majoraquifer units. The first and second units are referred toas the “shallow aquifer” and the third and fourth unitsas the “deep aquifer.” The horizontal groundwater flowis dominant in the NCP because of the wide hori-zontal distribution and large thickness of the aquiferlayers, whereas the vertical flow is only significantin areas with large pumping. During the simulationperiod (2000–2008) the aquifer system of NCP is notat equilibrium and the source/sink terms of the model

fluctuate seasonally. Spatially, the hydraulic propertiesof the aquifer are highly heterogeneous.

Numerical Model Construction

Spatial and Temporal DiscretizationThe entire model domain is discretized into 320 rowsand 323 columns, and the grid cells are uniformlyspaced (Fig. 7) with a size of 2×2 km. Vertically the

Fig. 8 Model-calculated head distributions for the shallow aquifer in 2000

80 J. Liu et al.

Fig. 9 Model-calculated head distributions for the deep aquifer in 2000

model is discretized into 3 layers (Fig. 7), resulting in atotal of 292,500 grid cells. Layer 1, containing the firstand second physical aquifer units, represents the shal-low aquifer; layer 2 represents the third aquifer unit;and layer 3 represents the fourth one.

Simulations are carried out under transient condi-tions for 108 stress periods that began on January 1,2000, and ended on December 31, 2008. The length ofeach stress period is 1 month.

Boundary ConditionsThe boundary conditions determine the locationand quantity of flow coming into or out of the

model domain; therefore, the selection of the app-ropriate boundary type is a major concern inmodel construction. The northern and western lateralboundaries of the shallow aquifer accept flow fromthe Yan Mountains and the Taihang Mountains. Theseboundaries thus are defined as specified flow bound-aries. The southern and southwestern lateral bound-aries receive leakage from the Yellow River and arealso defined as specified flow boundaries. The spec-ified head condition is used to represent the easternlateral boundary bordering the Bohai Gulf. The lat-eral boundaries of the deep aquifer and the base of thefourth aquifer are simulated as no-flow boundaries.

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 81

Fig. 10 Model-calibrated horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the shallow aquifer

Recharge and DischargeThe primary recharge to the shallow aquifer is the infil-tration of precipitation. Other recharge items of thisregion include returning flow from irrigation, leakageof surface water, and lateral recharge from the moun-tainous terrains. Groundwater pumping is the primarydischarge from the aquifer system. Evapotranspirationand lateral discharge to the Bohai Gulf are two othertypes of discharge in the shallow aquifer.

Initial ConditionThe initial condition represents the head distribution atthe beginning of the transient simulation. The initialcondition for the transient model is developed in thisstudy through a quasi-steady-state model that reflectsthe head field immediately prior to the start of thetransient model. The results of the calibrated quasi-steady-state model as shown in Figs. 8 and 9 are usedas the initial condition for the transient simulation.

82 J. Liu et al.

Fig. 11 Model-calibrated specific yield for the shallow aquifer

Model Calibration

Because of the large scale (136,000 km2) of theNCP, the available data set does not justify a detailedmodel calibration. In this study the primary objectiveof the model calibration is to adjust the hydraulicconductivities and specific yields to achieve an overallagreement between the simulated and measured heads.The computed water budget from the flow model is

also used as an important consideration in judging thequality of the overall model calibration.

Figures 10 and 11 show the final calibratedhydraulic parameters. Distribution and values of theseparameters are supported by relevant literatures andprevious studies (e.g., Dong, 2006; Kendy et al., 2003;Shimada et al., 2006; Wang, 2006; Zhang et al., 2006).Calculated groundwater levels are compared with theobserved values at available observation locations asshown in Fig. 12.

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 83

Fig. 12 Comparison of themodel-calculated heads withthe observed heads for allobservation locations from2000 to 2008

Model Results

The NCP groundwater flow model successfullysimulates the groundwater flow pattern and the cal-culated water budget compares favorably with inde-pendent estimates from other sources. Figures 13and 14 show the groundwater levels in the shallowaquifer and the deep aquifer, respectively. The con-tour maps of calculated heads in the unconfined aquifershow that groundwater flows from the mountain frontalong the north and west boundaries of the plaintoward the central part of the plain and Bohai Gulf.In several large metropolitan areas near the westernmountain front, such as Beijing, Baoding, and Xingtai,over-exploitation has led to extensive groundwaterdepression cones (Fig. 13). In the central part of theNCP, groundwater is mainly exploited from the deepaquifer, which has resulted in several large groundwa-ter depression cones around Dezhou, Cangzhou, andTianjin (Fig. 14).

The water balance during the simulation periodis analyzed and presented in Table 4 and Fig. 15.The various inflow and outflow items are generallyconsistent with those from previous studies (e.g.,Dong, 2006; Wang, 2006). The average annual ground-water recharge is around 18 billion m3, while theaverage annual groundwater pumping is about 22 bil-lion m3. The discrepancy of approximately 4 billionm3 is compensated from the groundwater storage. Thisindicates unsustainable groundwater development inthe NCP, which causes continuous groundwater leveldecline and subsequent negative environmental con-sequences. The basin-scale groundwater flow modelconstructed in this study will provide a useful toolfor regional groundwater resource evaluation and sus-tainable groundwater management. Various scenariosrelated to climatic changes and human activities willbe evaluated and presented elsewhere in a futurepublication.

84 J. Liu et al.

Fig. 13 Model-calculated head distributions for the shallow aquifer in 2008

Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North China Plain 85

Fig. 14 Model-calculated head distributions for the deep aquifer in 2008

Fig. 15 Calculated annuallyaveraged groundwater budgetsbetween 2000 and 2008

86 J. Liu et al.

Table 4 Calculated annual water budget from the NCP groundwater flow model between 2000 and 2008

Budget items Volume (109 m3) Percentage (%)

Inflow

Groundwater recharge 12.73 71.08

Irrigation return flow 3.60 20.10

Mountain front lateral flow 1.47 8.21

Leakage from Yellow River 0.11 0.61

Total 17.91 100.00

Outflow

Pumping 21.57 99.37

Lateral flow to Bohai Gulf 0.14 0.63

Total 21.71 100.00

Storage depletion 3.52

Summary and Conclusions

The urgency and the significance of studying NCPwater problems are obvious. The assessment of sus-tainability of groundwater resources in the NCP isnot only needed for mitigating the conflicts betweenlimited water resources and the increasing waterdemands from various sectors, but is also instructivefor many similar places looking for means of sustain-able groundwater development and management.

In this case study, a finite difference numericalmodel has been developed for the NCP based onthe MODFLOW (Harbaugh et al., 2000) groundwa-ter modeling system. The model was calibrated againstgroundwater levels in the shallow and deep aquifersand by comparing with flow budgets observed orinferred in previous studies. The simulated ground-water levels in the aquifer system show an overallagreement with the historical records. The total waterbudgets indicate that there is more outflow than inflow,causing the aquifer storage to be depleted continuouslyand suggesting unsustainable groundwater resourcedevelopment.

The regional groundwater flow model provides auseful tool for analyzing various groundwater devel-opment and management scenarios. However, thereis no scenario alone that can solve the groundwaterdepletion problem in the NCP (Liu et al., 2008). Thesustainable development of groundwater resources inthe NCP requires an integrated planning that considerswater resources, land use, and climate change as wellas the social and economic factors (Kendy et al., 2007).This study is only the first step toward a comprehensive

effort to develop effective management strategies thatensure long-term, stable, and flexible water suppliesto meet growing municipal, agricultural, and industrialwater demands in the NCP while simultaneously mit-igating negative environmental consequences. In thefuture, interdisciplinary studies to integrate natural sci-ence, economic, and social considerations should bepursued.

Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the finan-cial support from the National Basic Research Program ofChina (the “973” program) (no. 2006CB403404), from theNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (no.40911130505), and from NSFC Young Investigator Grant (no.40802053). The authors have also benefited from numerousdiscussions with Wenpeng Li of China Institute of Geo-environmental Monitoring, Li Wan of China University ofGeoscience (Beijing), Hao Wang and Yangwen Jia of ChinaInstitute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research.

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