SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE

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SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE. David Banister Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford. The Big Issues. From John Beddingtons lecture at Oxford University 23 rd June 2009. The Facts tCO 2 2006 Total Transport - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTLOOKING INTO THE FUTUREDavid BanisterTransport Studies UnitSchool of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford

  • The Big IssuesFrom John Beddingtons lecture at Oxford University23rd June 2009

  • The New Imperative

    Estimates of 390 CO2 ppmv 2009The Facts tCO2 2006Total TransportGlobal 4.371.07EU279.282.53US19.456.80Target2.000.75China4.070.45India1.070.10

  • A Pathway to 90% Reduction by 2050

  • 2080s 50% probability level: central estimate Change in annual mean temperature (C) Medium emissions = +3.5CChange in summer precipitation (%) Medium emissions = - 21-31%Change in winter precipitation (%) Medium emissions= +19-21%UKCIP09 Projections

  • Oxford CO2 emissions by sector (2002) and from transport (2003)Rajat Gupta (2005) Oxford Climate Change Action Plan, November

  • Action at the LTP LevelTop down international agreement v bottom up implementation and actionStakeholders and responsibilities public and private sectorsTechnological optimism and behavioural change climate change fatigueShort term immediacy and longer term speculation

  • TRIPSSubstitute or not make themDISTANCEShorten trip lengths Land use planningMODEUse of public transport, walk and cycleEFFICIENCYLoad factorsFuelsEfficiencyDesign Sustainable mobility explores ways of travelling less rather than travelling more, to overcome the problems of capacity, and also to address the environmental imperative.Sustainable Mobility Paradigm

  • 1. Reducing the need to travel substitution Trip no longer made replaced by non travel activity or substituted through technology

  • 2. Transport Policy Measures Modal Shift Promotion of walk and cycle Slowing down of urban traffic Demand management Investment in public transport Flexible use of streets No rebound effects

  • 3. Land Use Policy Measures Distance ReductionBuild sustainable mobility into patterns of urban form and layoutIncrease densities and concentration mixed use developments, housing locationThe New Oxford Cancer Centre at the Churchill and Susan Roafs Eco Home

  • 4. Technological Innovation Efficiency IncreaseBest available technology lean burn and plug in hybridsAlternative fuels renewable electricity and Biofuels (?)Restrictions clean parts of the cityEcological driving and slower speedsIncrease load factors

  • Role for TransportTransport = 25% CO2 and rising to 66% by 2050?Policy Objective Reductions in CO2 emissions and less carbonSlower TravelLess motorised travelVirtuous PathwaysKyoto 2 TargetsTransport Contributing Fully to the -80% 2050 TargetFewer AccidentsEnvironmental BenefitsIndividual and Societal BenefitsMore Active TransportHealth Benefits Less ObesityLess Pollution Health BenefitsIndividual and Societal BenefitsIndividual and Societal Benefits

  • Strategic ChallengesClimate change challenge links to current travel patterns in Oxfordshire.Increases in mobility impacts of transport investments on travel and location decisions on transport.Balance between economic, social and environmental elements of sustainability.

    This is equivalent to the two degrees target (400 CO2 ppmv) and 450 is the 3C targetSusan Roafs Eco Home 26 Blandford Road OxfordSusan Roafs Eco Home 26 Blandford Road OxfordSusan Roafs eco home 26 Blandford Road Oxford Oxford Cancer Centre opened May 2009