SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTLOOKING INTO THE FUTURE

David Banister

Transport Studies Unit

School of Geography and the Environment

University of Oxford

The Big Issues

From John Beddington’s lecture at Oxford University

23rd June 2009

The New Imperative

Estimates of 390 CO2 ppmv 2009

The Facts – tCO2 2006

Total TransportGlobal 4.37 1.07EU27 9.28 2.53US 19.45 6.80Target 2.00 0.75China 4.07 0.45India 1.07 0.10

A Pathway to 90% Reduction by 2050

2080s 50% probability level: central estimate

Change in annual mean temperature (ºC) Medium emissions = +3.5C

Change in summer precipitation (%) Medium emissions = - 21-31%

Change in winter precipitation (%) Medium emissions= +19-21%

UKCIP09 Projections

Oxford – CO2 emissions by sector (2002) and from transport (2003)

Rajat Gupta (2005) Oxford Climate Change Action Plan, November

Action at the LTP Level

• Top down – international agreement v bottom up – implementation and action

• Stakeholders and responsibilities – public and private sectors

• Technological optimism and behavioural change – climate change fatigue

• Short term immediacy and longer term speculation

TRIPSSubstitute or not

make them

DISTANCEShorten trip lengths Land use planning

MODEUse of public

transport, walk and

cycle

EFFICIENCYLoad factors

FuelsEfficiency

Design

Sustainable mobility explores ways of travelling less rather than travelling more, to overcome the problems of capacity, and also to address the environmental imperative.

Sustainable Mobility Paradigm

1. Reducing the need to travel – substitution

• Trip no longer made – replaced by non travel activity or substituted through technology

2. Transport Policy Measures – Modal Shift

• Promotion of walk and cycle

• Slowing down of urban traffic

• Demand management

• Investment in public transport

• Flexible use of streets

• No rebound effects

3. Land Use Policy Measures – Distance Reduction

• Build sustainable mobility into patterns of urban form and layout

• Increase densities and concentration – mixed use developments, housing location

The New Oxford Cancer Centre at the Churchill and Susan Roaf’s Eco Home

4. Technological Innovation – Efficiency Increase

• Best available technology – lean burn and plug in hybrids

• Alternative fuels – renewable electricity and Biofuels (?)

• Restrictions – clean parts of the city

• Ecological driving and slower speeds

• Increase load factors

Role for TransportTransport = 25% CO2 and rising to 66% by 2050?

Policy Objective Reductions in CO2 emissions and less carbon

Slower Travel

Less motorised travel

Virtuous Pathways

Kyoto 2 Targets

Transport Contributing Fully to the -80% 2050

Target

Fewer Accidents

Environmental Benefits

Individual and Societal Benefits

More Active Transport

Health Benefits Less Obesity

Less Pollution Health Benefits

Individual and Societal Benefits

Individual and Societal Benefits

Strategic Challenges

1. Climate change challenge – links to current travel patterns in Oxfordshire.

2. Increases in mobility – impacts of transport investments on travel and location decisions on transport.

3. Balance between economic, social and environmental elements of sustainability.