Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L5.pdf · 2005 World Total: 59,322 MW 2005 Installations : 11,679 MW Growth rate: 25% 2020 Prediction:

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center

Sustainable Energy:

The Solar Strategy(Continued from Lecture 4)


1980 1990 2000

Wind Energy PotentialGlobally: 27% of earth’s land surface is class 3 (250-300 W/m2 at 50 m) or greater

- potential of 50 TW

4% utilization of > class 3 land area will provide 2 TW

US: 6% of land suitable for wind energy development - 0.5 TW

US electricity consumption ~ 0.4 TW

Off shore installations provide additional resource

Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Stanford University, 2005


Global Wind Energy Growth


2005 World Total: 59,322 MW

2005 Installations : 11,679 MW

Growth rate: 25%

2020 Prediction: 1,245,000 MW*

Equivalent to 1000 Nuclear power plants

12% of world electricity generation

Global Wind Energy

Country 2005 MW % of total

Germany 18,428 31.0

Spain 10,027 16.9

United States 9,149 15.4

India 4,430 7.5

Denmark 3,122 5.3

Italy 1,717 2.9

United Kingdom 1,353 2.3

China 1,260 2.1

Japan 1,231 2.1

Netherlands 1,219 2.1

* According to Wind Force 12


Wind Power

GE WIND1.5 MW

GE WIND3.6 MW


Boeing 747-200

GE 3.6 MW

Large Scale Wind Turbine


Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h45

30

15

Wind Energy Costs Trends

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: June 2002


States with most wind energy installed, by capacity (MW)

1 California - 2,096 MW 2 Texas - 1,293 MW 3 Minnesota - 615 MW 4 Iowa - 632 MW 5 Wyoming - 285 MW

US Wind Energy Installations

Largest wind farms operating the U.S. (MW)

1 Stateline, Oregon-Washington - 300 MW 2 King Mountain, Texas - 278 MW 3 New Mexico Wind Energy Center, New Mexico - 204 MW 4 Storm Lake, Iowa - 193 MW 5 Colorado Green, Colorado - 162 MW 6 High Winds, California - 162 MW


Biomass is a widely used term referring to a number of biosolids and organic materials. Depending on the geographical and political context, the term “biomass” is also used for different purposes.

Biomass can be defined as: - Plant and other growing species capable of being used as fuel.-Organic material mainly composed of carbohydrateand lignin compounds, the building blocks of which are the elements carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.-Stored form of solar energy relying on the process of photosynthesis

Some examples of biomass are:

Fuel wood; Tree barks; Sugar cane bagasse, Wheat straw

Switch grass; Corn cobs; Rice hull; Vineyard pruning

Coconut shells and Almond shell

Biomass

Source: http://www.energy.kth.se/compedu/webcompedu/index.html

http://www.energy.kth.se/compedu/webcompedu/Glossary/C/Carbohydrates.htm

http://www.energy.kth.se/compedu/webcompedu/Glossary/L/Lignin.htm

http://www.energy.kth.se/compedu/webcompedu/Glossary/P/Photosynthesis.htm


Miscanthus as Feedstock

20 tons/acre? (20 tons/acre? (www.bical.netwww.bical.net))1010--30 tons/acre (30 tons/acre (www.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdfwww.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/MASGC.pdf))

http://www.bical.net/


Biomass

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

12

9

6

3

0

Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001

CO

E c

ents

/kW

hBiomass


Other Renewable Energy

Tidal energy:

The power of the tides is harnessed by building a low dam or barrage in which the rising waters are captured and allowed to flow backthrough electricity generating turbines.

Geothermal energy:

Heat from within the earth is the source. Hot rocks near the surface can heat water in underground aquifers to provide hot water or steam.

Biomass 750 km2

Geothermal 0.3 km2

Wind 79 km2

Photovoltaics 12 km2

Solar thermal 8 km2

Surface area required to produce 100 MW


Electricity Generation Costs

Current energy

cost

US cents/kWh

Potential future

energy cost

US cents/kWh

Turnkey investment

cost

US $/kWh

Biomass 5-15 4-10 900-3000

Geothermal 2-10 1-8 800-3000

Wind 5-13 3-10 1100-1700

Solar

Photovoltaics

Concentrating Solar

Power

Low temperature heat

10-25

5-15

3-10

3-15

3-10

2-5

5000-10000

3000-4000

500-1500

Renewable

Energy


Source: Exxon Mobil, 2002 and modified by AK

Electricity Production Cost

Residential consumer cost of electricity in 2005

*

* Integrated gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) with Capture and Sequestration


Large

Small

Fossil-Fueled Renewable-Fueled

Hybrids

• Diesels• Microturbines• Fuel Cells

• Coal-fired Boilers

• Coal-fired Fluid Bed

• Combined Cycle

• Combustion Turbine

• Solar Central Receiver

• Wind Farms• Solar Trough

• Biomass• Wind Machines

• Solar Dish• Photovoltaics

• Energy Efficiency

Storage

Source: Mervin Brown, NREL

Fossil and Renewable Energy Domains


MicropowerA

vg. G

ener

atio

n C

ost,

$/M

W

1990 1980

50 200 600 1,000

1930

1950

1970

Optimal generation plant size for a single plant based on cost per megawatt [MW], 1930-1990

Source: Charles E. Bayless, “Less is More: Why Gas Turbines Will Transform Electric Utilities.” Public Utilities Fortnightly 12/1/94

Plant Size (MW)

Source: Mervin Brown, NREL


Centralized Power System Distributed Power System

Future Power System


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Wind

PV

Fuel Cells

Microturbines

Small Turbines

Diesel Engines

Conventional GasEngines

KW

FutureToday

Sources: Arthur D. Little, 01/2000;Resource Dynamics Corp. 02/2001and UTC estimates

Power Output Ranges


0

1000

2000

3000

Average U.S.fossil fuel plant

Microturbine Fuel cell Combinedcycle gasturbine

Fuel cell(with co-

generation)

(Pounds of CO2 per 1000 kWh)

Source: UTC estimates

CO2 Emissions


Sustainable Electricity

Power Generation requirements:

1. More power with less primary energy through efficiency improvements – Technology

2. Affordable and reliable power for every one – Technology & governments

3. Reduced dependency on fossil fuel – Citizens & governments4. Environmentally friendly and sustainable solutions – Technology

& governments 5. Comply with national policies – governments 6. Economically competitive solutions (effects standard of living) –

Technology & governments


US CO2 Emissions in 2000


Transportation Energy Consumption

Quadrillion Btu

Source: Annual Energy outlook - 2004, Energy Information Administration


Light Duty Vehicles by Fuel Type

Thousands of Vehicles sold

Source: Annual Energy outlook - 2004, Energy Information Administration


Transportation Fuel Efficiency


Performance


Vehicle Life Time Energy Consumption


Vehicle Total Energy Use


Fossil Fuel Use

Legend Legend EtoHEtoH = Ethanol; = Ethanol; AlloAllo.= Allocation ; .= Allocation ; DispDisp.= Displacement.= DisplacementSource: Biofuels by Source: Biofuels by VinodVinod KhoslaKhosla


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Gasolin

eDies

elNap

thaCNG

Methan

ol

FischerT

ropsc

h Dies

el

Compresse

d Hyd

rogen

Liquid Hyd

rogen

Electro

lysis

Hydro

genE85

(cell

ulose)

Ethanol (c

ellulose

)

Non-FossilFossil

BTU

per

Mill

ion

BTU

Fue

l Del

iver

ed

Petroleum Natural GasRenewable/Electricity

Source: Source: ““Well-To-Wheel Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Analysis”, Norman Brinkman, GM Research & Development

Well to Tank Energy Consumption


US Biomass Resource


US Biomass

…or ~30% of U.S. transportation fuel supply!!

Turning South Dakota into…

Farm acres

Tons/acre

Gallons/ton

Thousand barrels/day

Today Tomorrow

…a member of OPEC?!

44 Million

5

60

857

44 Million

15

80

3,429

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Nigeria

Thousand barrels/day

2,011

2,376

1,515

2,509

Qatar

Saudi

UAE

818

9,101

2,478

South Dakota 3,429

Source: Ceres Company PresentationSource: Ceres Company Presentation


Farmer EconomicsPer acre economics of dedicated biomass crops vs. traditional row crops

Biomass Corn WheatGrain yield (bushel) N/A 162 46Grain price ($/bushel) N/A $2 $3Biomass yield (tons) 15 2 2Biomass price ($/ton) $20 $20 $20Total revenue $300 $364 $178

Amortized fixed costs $36 $66 $36Variable costs $84 $168 $75

Net return $180 $120 $57

Source: Ceres Company PresentationSource: Ceres Company Presentation


Wind Turbine

PV Array

Short-term Energy Storage

BalancerLoad

Heat Recovery

Electric line

H2 piping

Heat stream

Legend

Off-siteLoads

Hydrogen StorageH2

FuelingElectrolyzer

LocalLoads

Fuel Cells and Engines

Renewable H2 Energy System


Water

Oxygen

Electrolysis

Energy Hydrogen

CO2

ConventionalFuels

Biomass

HydrogenStorage

Hydrogen

FuelProcessor

Oxygen (air)

Water

Fuel CellEnergy

HydrogenStorage

Hydrogen Economy

http://www.ecomall.com/biz/wind.gif

http://jin.jcic.or.jp/access/energy/media/energy_03.jpe


Summary

Edison anticipated a highly dispersed electricity system, with individual businesses generating their own power - Renewable energy is ideally suited to realize this goal.

The cost gap between renewable energy and conventional power continues to close.

New business models will evolve around renewable and micropowertechnologies.

Biofuels made from cellulosic biomass will become significant energy source for transportation sector.


Home workDue on September 19, 2006

1. Compare the total purchase costs of a nominally 2.5 kW (peak) photovoltaic system for the following three choices of solar modules:

a) First generation crystalline silicon modules of 15% energy conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $240/m2;

b) Second generation thin film modules of 10% conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $50/m2;

c) Third generation polymer modules of 50% conversion efficiency at a projected cost of $80/m2.

Assume balance of system components, include everything in a photovoltaic system other than the photovoltaic modules, is about 60% of the total module cost.

(Solar modules are normally given a rating under “peak” sunlight, corresponding to 1 kW/m2 intensity)


Home work

2. Estimate the area required to generate 50 MW peak power using the second generation thin film PV modules. Calculate the kWh cost for such an installation.

3. The city of Tallahassee is contemplating to support the construction of a conventional coal plant. Given the health and environmental costs of about $0.07/kWh, and the cost of today’s electricity being $0.14/kWh, determine whether the option of using 2nd generation PV modules make economic sense.

Documents

Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L5.pdf · 2005 World Total: 59,322 MW 2005 Installations : 11,679 MW Growth rate: 25% 2020 Prediction: