Sustainable Energy for the Northeast - Connecticut Attainment Planning Committee Boston, ... • Crude Oil • CNG • LPG Exports ... • Washing machines

Sustainable Energy and Air Quality Sustainable Energy and Air Quality Planning for the Northeast USPlanning for the Northeast USApplication of a MultiApplication of a Multi--Pollutant Policy Pollutant Policy

Analysis Framework at the RegionalAnalysis Framework at the Regional--scalescale

Gary KleimanGary KleimanNESCAUM Attainment Planning CommitteeNESCAUM Attainment Planning Committee

Boston, MA Boston, MA ●● January 30, 2008January 30, 2008

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastCelebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Northeast

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Contributors• Michelle Manion• Jason Rudokas• IRG, Ltd.

Sponsors• U.S. EPA• NOAA• Oak Foundation• Energy Foundation• H. W. Pierce

Charitable Trust• Member States


Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Environmental context for multi-p planning

• Policy context for multi-p planning• Overview of regional-scale, multi-

pollutant policy analysis framework• Examples of energy and environmental

trade-offs/interactions and their economic implications

• Putting it all together: regional wedges


Rationale for thinking about Rationale for thinking about alternative energy sourcesalternative energy sources

(What are the challenges to, and opportunities for,

sustainable air quality management?)


Climate Change in the NortheastClimate Change in the Northeast

Source: UCS NECIA

Alternative energypathways can makea difference in our future climate change“commitment”


Southeast

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120M8hO3 (ppb)

CDF

200120502050_np

Small increase in O3 due to climateSubstantial decrease in O3 due to planned emission controls

Northeast

00.20.40.60.8

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

M8hO3 (ppb)

CD

F

200120502050_np

Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 1 (Link 1 -- The Impact)The Impact)

Georgia Tech/NESCAUM/MIT STAR Grant, 2006


Reductions in Ozone Season Power Industry NOReductions in Ozone Season Power Industry NOxxEmissions and 8Emissions and 8--Hour Ozone, 2002 versus 2004Hour Ozone, 2002 versus 2004


Acid DepositionAcid Deposition

Before Title IV After Title IV

Source: NAPAP, 2005


Fine Particles and HealthFine Particles and Health


Fine Particles and VisibilityFine Particles and Visibility

Acadia National Park, Maine Acadia with high PM2.5 loading


Mercury Emissions Contribute to Exposure to Mercury

• The primary pathway of human exposure to mercury in the U.S. is through eating contaminated fish.• Power plants emit approximately 48 tons of mercury and are the largest source of mercury emissions in the U.S.

(approximately 41%).

Wet and Dry Deposition

Emissions and

Speciation

AtmosphericTransport and

Deposition

Ecosystem Transport, Methylation, and Bioaccumulation

Consumption Patters Human Exposure

Fishing• commercial• recreational • subsistence

Mercury transforms into methylmercury in soils and water, then can bioaccumulate in fish

Atmosphericdeposition

Impacts• Best documented impacts

on the developing fetus: impaired motor and cognitive skills

• Possible cardiovascular, immune, and reproductive system impacts

Humans and wildlife affected primarily by eating contaminated fishEmissions to

the Air

Ocean

methylation

Lake

methylation


Diesel/Black CarbonDiesel/Black Carbon


Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 2 (Link 2 -- The Opportunity)The Opportunity)

A Low Carbon Future Could Mean…• Low NOx future• Low SO2 future• Low Hg and other toxic metals future• Low Diesel/Black Carbon future…A more sustainable Future

Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Planning


Regional Policy ContextRegional Policy Context


Air Quality Management IssuesAir Quality Management Issues

• Acid Deposition• Mercury Deposition• Fine Particles (Health & Visibility)• Ozone• Air Toxics• Climate Requires 10

Or more SIPs!


MultiMulti--Pollutant PlanningPollutant Planning

• June 2007: the federal Clean Air Act Advisory Committee recommended that governments adopt a comprehensive statewide air quality planning process and move from a single to a multiple pollutant approach in managing air quality


MultiMulti--Pollutant Policy Analysis Pollutant Policy Analysis Framework (MPAF)Framework (MPAF)


Regional Integrated Regional Integrated Assessment FrameworkAssessment Framework

Policy Goal

Energy Model

Economic Model

KeyEconomic Indicators

Air Quality Modelemissi

ons

expenditures

Wet/DryDeposition

Ambient Concentrations

Health Benefits Model

Health EffectsIncidence and Cost/Benefit

Meteorology Health/ValuationFunction

Regional-ScaleClimate Model

ClimateImpacts Models

Costs,Benefits, Adaptations

due to Climate

Global ClimateModel


MultiMulti--pollutant Policy pollutant Policy Analysis FrameworkAnalysis Framework

for the Northeast USfor the Northeast US

Policy Goal

NE-MARKAL

12-State REMI

KeyEconomic Indicators

CMAQemissi

ons

expenditures

Wet/DryDeposition

Ambient Concentrations

BenMAP

Health EffectsIncidence and Cost/Benefit

Meteorology Health/ValuationFunction

UNH RCMS

ClimateImpacts Models

Costs,Benefits, Adaptations

due to Climate

Global ClimateModel


NENE--MARKAL: Links Energy and MARKAL: Links Energy and Air QualityAir Quality

Air Pollution

Contribution to anthropogenicemissions:

NOx ~ 95%SOx ~ 89%CO ~ 95%Hg ~ 87%

Air Quality Concerns:OzonePM2.5Acid depositionToxics

Today’s Energy System

Uranium

Natural Gas

Oil

Oil

Refining

Coal

Renewables

Electricity Generation

Industry

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Automobiles

Source: EPA ORD


NE9/12 NE9/12 Data Development ProcessData Development ProcessEIA surveys, NEMS, EGRID

Regional base technology characterizations and end-use

fuel shares

EIA SEDS

2002 State-level fuel consumption data

Base year state-level systemcharacterization

NEMS/DOE technology

options

AEO2006 demand

projections

State & regional policies

Reference case evolution

AEO2006 fuel price

projections


NENE--9 9 DemandDemand SectorSectorss RepresentationRepresentationResidential Space Heating, Cooling, Clothes Washers,

Dish Washers, Water Heating, Cooking, Clothes Dryers, Refrigeration, Freezing, Lighting, Personal Computers, Television, Furnace Fans, Other Appliances, Secondary Heating

Commercial Space Heating, Cooling, Water Heating, Cooking, Ventilation, Refrigeration, Lighting, Office Equipment, Other

Industrial Steam, Process Heat, Machine Drive, Electro-Chemical, Other, Feedstocks, Non-Energy, and captive CHP in each ofChemicals, Durables, Glass-Cement, Metals, Paper, Other

Transportation Light and Heavy Duty Vehicles, Other(Aircraft, Marine, Rail available, but not yet implemented)


NENE--9 Reference Scenario9 Reference Scenario

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

Tbtu

COM - KER COM - GSL COM - LPG COM - COA COM - BWD COM - RFO COM - DSL COM - ELC COM - NGA IND - MSW IND - HYD IND - GSL IND - LPG IND - BWD IND - RFO IND - BPL IND - DSL IND - COA IND - ASP IND - COK IND - PFS IND - OPP IND - ELC IND - NGA RES - COA RES - KER RES - LPG RES - BRW RES - ELC RES - DSL RES - NGA TRN - BDL TRN - CNG TRN - AVG TRN - ELC TRN - LUB TRN - RFO TRN - JTF TRN - DSL TRN - GSL CON - DSL CON - BWD CON - CWS CON - CIM CON - MSW CON - RFO CON - NGA CON CAP

Future projection of energy use by fuel


Examples of energy and air Examples of energy and air quality interactionquality interaction


Rapid Deployment of Renewable Rapid Deployment of Renewable EnergyEnergy

• Working with other energy modelers across U.S. (REMAP project)

• Examining the implications of requiring 20% renewable generation by 2025

• Looking at the viable opportunities and their costs

• We are one of the few regional models participating


NE9 Regional Renewable Generation Reference Case

02468

101214

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

GW

NE9 Regional Renewable Generation Reference Case

02468

101214

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

GW

NE9 CO2 Reductions Under REMAP 20% Relative to the Reference Case

-60000-50000-40000-30000-20000-10000

010000

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

NE9 NOx Reductions Under REMAP 20% Relative to the

Reference Case

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

NE9 S02 Reductions Under REMAP 20% Relative to the

Reference Case

-600

-400

-200

0

200

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Thousands of Tons

Renewable Energy in the NortheastRenewable Energy in the Northeast

REMAP


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

GW

Biomass Landfill Gas Solar Wind

Renewable Generation with 20% RPSRenewable Generation with 20% RPS

Assumption:Cost and market potential for biomass?

Assumption:siting potential for wind?


Examining Tradeoffs in the RESExamining Tradeoffs in the RES

Renewables• Biomass• Wind

– On/Off Shore– Classes 6-7

• Hydro• Solar

– Centralized– Commercial– Residential

Imports• Coal

– Western– Appalachian

• Natural Gas• Crude Oil• CNG• LPG

Exports• Bio-fuels (future

option)• Electricity

Fuel Processing• Oil Refining• Bio-fuel

production• Transportation

Electric Generation• Traditional fossil

fuel based• Renewable• IGCC• Carbon

sequestration• Fuel cells• Combined heat &

power

Industry• Boilers

– CHP Plants• Machines

Commercial• CFLs • Centrifugal

Chillers• Furnaces

Residential• GS Heat Pumps• Washing machines• Personal

Computers

Transportation• LD / HD Vehicles• Railway• Airplane• Ship

Industry• Steam Demand• Motor Drive

Commercial• Heating • Cooling• Lighting

Residential• Heating• Close Washing• Computing

Transportation• VMT• Take-offs

Primary EnergyConversion

TechnologiesEnd-Use Devices

End-Use Energy Demand

Attributes:•Technical Potential•Capital Cost•Associated Emissions

(including upstream)•Lifetime•Discount/hurdle rate


Energy Efficiency in NEEnergy Efficiency in NE--MARKALMARKAL(Implicit Representation)(Implicit Representation)

Unconstrained Commercial Sector Market Penetration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

% o

f Sec

tor

Dem

and

Met

By

Adv

ance

d Te

chno

logi

es

Space Heating Water Heating

Range of technologyefficiencies are

already representedin the model

Commercial Sector Energy Efficiency

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

Effic

ienc

y

Space Heating Unconstrained Water Heating UnconstrainedSpace Heating Reference Water Heating Reference

Entrance of advanced technologiesautomatically increases efficiencies


Energy Efficiency in NEEnergy Efficiency in NE--MARKALMARKAL(Explicit Representation)(Explicit Representation)

• Points represent bundles of efficient technologies and practices and are modeled as distinct technologies in MARKAL.

• For Example:– Bundle 1

• Smart Thermostats• Duct Sealing

– Bundle 2• EE training programs for

building managers– Bundle 3

• Insulation / Shell Improvements– Bundle 4Quantity

of Efficiency

Price of Efficiency Bundle

Key point is to avoid overlap of EEbundles and implicit

technologies


Residential Heating: Single House Insulation EconomicsResidential Heating: Single House Insulation Economics• 2500 Square feet single

family house• Using Oil Radiator• South Central NH• 2 Stories

– Basement– Attic

• Initial base house had small amount of above ground insulation

• Insulated house upgraded to meet DOE recommended levels for NE.

• Insulation Cost $2,840• Lines represent different

interest rates assumptions for a 7 year loan program to pay for insulation.

– 52.4% implicit discount rate

Net Savings From Adding Insulation Under Different Payment Plans

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Net

Sav

ings

Up Front 3% 20% 50% 52.40%

Net Savings (2002 dollars) From Insulation Estimated by DOE eQUEST Simulation Tool


Fuel Expenditure Reductions Relative to Reference Case

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

% E

xpen

ditu

re R

educ

tions

REF52 vs Unconstrained REF52 vs High 2 Low REF52 vs Low 2 High

In the unconstrained In the unconstrained case rapid case rapid investments in investments in insulation up to the insulation up to the technical potential technical potential cause the residential cause the residential heating sector to heating sector to rapidly become much rapidly become much more efficient.more efficient.

Residential Heating: Regional Insulation EconomicsResidential Heating: Regional Insulation Economics(Direct Savings)(Direct Savings)

Regional Reduction in Fuel Expenditure


0

10

20

30

40

50

Unconstrained High to Low Low to High

Empl

oym

ent I

ncre

ase

(Tho

us)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

GR

P In

crea

se (B

ill 2

000

$'s)

Residential Heating: Regional Insulation EconomicsResidential Heating: Regional Insulation Economics(Indirect Benefits: Gross Regional Product, Employment)(Indirect Benefits: Gross Regional Product, Employment)


Combined Heat and PowerCombined Heat and Power• Our study examined how CHP deployment in

Massachusetts is affected by standby charges under 3 different scenarios.– Aggressive C02 cap on power sector

• 30% of 2002 emissions by 2029– Increasing natural gas prices between 2008 and 2029– Power sector C02 cap & high natural gas prices

• We also highlight key changes in the energy infrastructure as CHP deployment changes.– Power sector fuel switching – CO2 emission levels


Projected CHP Installed Capacity in MA (2005-2025)

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

Reference Case (FullStandby Charge)

No Standby No Standby / 225$ kw Grant

MW


Implications for Climate PolicyImplications for Climate Policy

Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

CO2

(Mill

ion

TPY

)Regional WedgesRegional Wedges

CA LEV?

Insulation

BAU +RPS+RGGI

+REMAP


Typical Analysis StepsTypical Analysis Steps

• Review technology characterizations, emission factors, and other inputs

• Joint development of reference scenario; input assumptions and policy constraints appropriate to a particular study

• Initial focus on a couple specific measures• This ultimately results in full description

of a menu of options to meet multi-p needs


ImplicationsImplications• Clear advantages to multi-pollutant planning

(using climate motivation to achieve air and energy goals)

• Analytical framework to look at wide range of opportunities across sectors in regional context (i.e. interactions across pollutants/sectors)

• Need to better define state engagement for analytic support and coordination of policy approach that would allow MPAF to serve a role in future AQM plans


Data Wish listData Wish list

• Actual Electricity Trade in 2002, 2005• Capacity transfer limits MD, DE, DC• Emission factors for HD vehicles/Buses• Major mercury source emission factors• Policy assumptions and criteria pollutant

constraints for reference scenario• Data for aircraft, marine, rail sources if

target of analysis


Thank You!Thank You!

Harmonizing environmental, public health, economic and societal goals

The Clean Air Association of the Northeast States

Documents

Sustainable Energy for the Northeast - Connecticut Attainment Planning Committee Boston, ... • Crude Oil • CNG • LPG Exports ... • Washing machines