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Sustainability at MSL: Slide 1Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Realizing SustainableNanotechnology
Thoughts on Research Needs
Randolph KirchainMIT Materials Systems Laboratory
http://msl.mit.edu
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 2Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Critical Questions and Other Issues
•Materials Availability– Are there sufficient quantities of low availability
materials (e.g. In, Te) readily available for producing nanostructured devices and products on a large scale?
•Promising Candidates– Are there certain nanotechnological products or
systems that should be encouraged as replacements for current systems because the benefits are large in comparison to the potential environmental impacts?
•Other issues– Data availability
– Workforce Capacity
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 3Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Question 1: Materials Availability / Scarcity
•Basic answer– We won’t run out of
anything
•Don’t worry, be happy?
•Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky
•Scarcity occurs when:– We don’t have
anymore– Total cost to extract
exceeds market value
Will we run out of key raw materials for nanotechnology?
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 5Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Details of the Societal Scarcity Argument, But What about Local Impacts?
•Scarcity occurs when:Total cost to extract exceeds market value
•Isn’t this a problem?– NO: Don’t forget about
the power of • Technology• Efficiency• Substitution
– YES: Some things can’t be substituted
• Basic life needs (e.g., water)
• Environmental services
•Assuming that nanotech impact is
– Net positive or
– Small relative change…
Don’t worry, be happy?
•Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky
•Even if effects of scarcity don’t adversely effect societal welfare …
… local effects can be significant
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 6Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
A Historic Example of Local Impacts from Materials Constraint: Cobalt in the Late 1970’s
•Zaire compared to World in 1977– Population 0.04%– GDP 0.09%– Cobalt resources
40%
•Small scale rebellion in 1977 led to:– Short term constraint– Global speculation
Sources: Adelman, K. L. R. Afr. Soc. 1978, v77. Blechman and Sloss. National Security and Strategic Minerals, 1985. Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1886-2004. and USGS Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summary 1932-2006,
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 7Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Outcomes from Cobalt Crisis:Some Transitory, Some Permanent
• Supply constraint led to price increase that led to changes in ..
– Operations• Recycling• Stockpiling
– Technology• Process efficiency• Materials substitution
– Geography• Supply relocation
• Even though price changes were temporary, effects to firms were permanent
• Research Questions– Can we identify supply
chains that are at risk?
– How should a firm respond to such a risk?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Rea
l Pri
ce o
f Co
('000
s 98
$/t)
Primary Outcome: Price Increase
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 8Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Simple metrics provide
insight, but do not capture
interrelated aspects of
materials use
Screening for Risk
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 9Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
An Example of a Simple Risk Metric Institutional inefficiency: Geographic Concentration
China
Australia
Congo
Chile
S.Africa
China
Chile
China
U.S.A.
Russia
Peru
China
S.Africa
China
Russia
Guinea
Zambia
U.S.A.
Australia
Australia
Australia
Canada
Chile
U.S.A.
Mexico
Indonesia
Russia
Australia
Canada
Jamaica
Australia
Indonesia
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
China
Russia
China
Canada
China
Peru
Canada
Peru
Aluminum
Bauxite
Cobalt
Copper
Gold
Lead
Lithium
Magnesium
Molybdenum
Nickel
Silver
Tin
Platinum
Zinc
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Cumulative Fraction of Global Primary Production (2004)
Screening for Risk
Sources: Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries 2007.
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 10Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Can We Identify Materials at Risk?Simple Metrics Fall Short, Models Provide Novel Insights
•Simple metrics– provide some
insight
– do not capture interrelated aspects of materials use
•Modeling materials system provides insight into – sources of risk
– impact of strategies to address it
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 11Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Model-based Conclusion:Value of Recycling as a fast-responding supply
0
20
40
60
80
0.7 0.8 0.9 1Fraction of Base Case Recycling
Ave
rage
Pri
ce ($/
g)
High Levels of Recycling in Platinum Materials System– Reduces use of primary supply - slows down ore
degradation
– Stabilizes inventory of metal and hence price
– Reduces supply chain risk
Derived from data in: International Aluminium Institute: Life Cycle Assessment of Aluminium, March 2003
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 12Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Preliminary Results Show Economic Benefits of Recycling
Model results indicate that a system with significant recycling
– Experiences less significant price effects from supply disruption
– Recovers more quickly from supply disruption
– Lowers downstream
•Materials expenditure•Risk
0 10 20 30 40 500
20
40
60
Pri
ce
($
/g)
Time (Year)
75% Recycling 90% Recycling Base Case
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 13Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Research Needs on Materials Availability
•Supply– Characterization of available resources
– Technology and economics of extraction• Current and future expansion
•Production– Consumption per unit of product delivered
•Market– Expected demand
– Price elasticity
•Recovery– Technical and economic potential
•Substitutes
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 14Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Question 2: Promising Candidates
Products that…– Meet basic human needs
• Clean water• Food
– Involve the Use of toxics
– Create most burden during the use phase
• Efficient transport, electronics, lighting• Reduced need for water transport and/or hot
water
What applications should be encouraged because the potential net benefits are large?
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 15Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
When Identifying Promising Candidates Life-Cycle Perspective is Critical: Common LC Hotspots
Extraction
Use
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 16Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Other Issue 1: Data Availability / Data Quality
Everyone (who hasn’t previously worked on LCA)…Overestimates data availability
…Underestimates the cost of data collection– Although we have made tremendous progress,
quality data is scarce for all forms of LCA
Franklin
ETH
EcoinventIDEMAT
Current databases–Largely point estimates
(or are treated as such)
–Incompletely documented
–Not regularly updated
Current databases–Largely point estimates
(or are treated as such)
–Incompletely documented
–Not regularly updated
International Primary Aluminium Institute: LCI of the Worldwide Aluminium Industry with Regard to Energy Consumption…, May 2000 Database values: Aluminum 0% recycled ETH U. PRe Consultants, Aluminum, primary, liquid, at plant; www.ecoinvent.ch. Aluminum ingots I; IDEMAT 2001, Aluminum can, FAL; Franklin Associates.
Sustainability at MSL : Slide 17Materials Systems Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division
Other Issue 2: Workforce Capacity
•Knowledge gaps are not the only issue that holds back environmentally conscious design
•Real need for more – LCA specialist
– LCA knowledgeable
• Product designers• Process designers
Courtesy: S Fredholm, PE Americas