Sustainability: a long-term journey

René Kemp

MERIT & DRIFT

On sustainability Sustainability is about protection and creation Requirements of sustainability are multiple and

interconnected Pursuit of sustainability hinges on integration Core requirements and general rules must be

accompanied by context-specific elaborations: Diversity is necessary Surprise is inevitable Transparency and public engagement are key

characteristics of decision making for sustainability

Explicit rules and processes are needed for decisions about trade-offs and compromises

The end is open

Key elements of SD strategy

policy integration common objectives, criteria, trade-off

rules and indicators information and incentives for practical

implementation programmes for system innovation (with

transition policies)(Kemp, Gibson and Parto, 2004)

Innovation is part of SD-- this is accepted by the European Commission

The Commission emphasises the role of policy at the EU scale, to generate major public and private investments in crucial sustainability-related areas – including the development and application of new, “environmentally-friendly” technologies – and more broadly to be catalyst for “institutional reform”, changes in corporate and consumer behaviour, and “innovative solutions” that create new, high-quality jobs (EC 2001b:2-3).

But innovation is different thingsPolicy innovationTechnological innovationNew sociotechnical systemsthat are interrelated

SD is a non-ending process of adaptive change involving multiple transitions

Policy should be concerned with “managing” transitions

A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)

Transitions are multi-level processes

Take off

Breakthrough

Predevelopment

Stabilisation

Time

Magnitude of societal change

The Dutch model of Transition management

…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and

visions… in which different visions and routes are explored:

system innovation and optimisation

Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic

Political margins for

change

State of development of solutions

Societal goals

Sustainability visions

Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)

Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)

Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.

... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and control policies

2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’

2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic

2003 2 à 3 %

‘Transition Paths’

C. Biofuels

B. Pyrolysis

A. Gasification

ExpvEO

SExp

Exp EOS: experiments : R&D

No definitive choice is made as to technological means

Different routes are investigated Decisions are made in an interative way Support is temporary Each option has to proof its worth Technology choices are made at the

decentralized level

1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to

overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)

3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)

4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability

5. Less domination by vested interests: opening up of policy process

What’s new about transition management?

  Incrementalism Goal-oriented modulation —of which transition management is an example

Planning

Key actors Private and public actors

Private and public actors

Bureaucrats and experts

Steering philosophy

Partisan mutual adaptation

Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator

Hierarchy

Structuring form

Polyarchy Heterarchy 

Hierarchy

Role for anticipation

Limited (no long-term goals)

Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction

Future is anticipated and implemented

Type of learning

First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills

Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring)

First-order (instrumental)

Mechanism for coordination

Markets and emergent institutionalisation

Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent)

Hierarchy (top-down)

Degree of adaptivity

Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity

Hardly adaptive

Role for strategy and plans

Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation.

Plans with steps

Interest mediation/ conflict resolution

Individual gains for everyone

Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics

Little mediation (implementation and enforcement)

Type of change that is sought

Incremental, non-disruptive change

System innovation and system improvement

Predetermined outcome