July 16th, 2019

Findings, Insights and Recommendations

Survey: Israel Victory Project

Methodology

• Online Panel of 703 likely voters, 18+

• Statistically representative sample of Jewish

population

• Margin of error: +/- 3.7%

• Survey conducted: 7-11 July

• Data Collection: New Wave Research

• Survey conducted in Hebrew

2

Demographics

3

5

13

21

28

12

11

9

Judea and Samaria

South

Tel Aviv

Centre

Haifa

North

Jerusalem

Region

17

14

15

19

21

14

65+

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

18-24

Age

14

14

17

21

26

8

Refused

Well below average

A bit below average

About average

A bit above average

Well above average

Income

46

24

30

University

High school and above

High school and below

Education

11

12

34

43

Ultra-Orthodox

Religious

Traditional

Secular

Religiosity

11

4

85

Post-1989

Pre-1989

No

Aliyah from the former USSR

April 2019 Election

4

Which party did you vote for in the April 2019 elections? (%)

27 27

6 65

4 4 4 43 3

4 4

26 26

6 6

34 4 4

34 4

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Likud Blue andWhite

Shas UTJ NewRight

Labour UnitedRight

Meretz Zehut YisraelBeteinu

Kulanu Other I didn’t vote

Survey Actual Results

Contents

• Part 1: The Conflict

• Part 2: “Israel Victory”

• Part 3: Policies

• Part 4: Messaging

• Moving forward: Takeaways & Recommendations

5

Part 1: The Conflict

Lack of optimism about end of conflict

7

What do you think the chances are of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict coming to an end in the next twenty years? (Total)

4

18

50

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Very Unlikely

78%22%

Palestinian ‘Rejectionism’ the main cause

8

In your opinion, what is the primary reason that agreements between Israel and the Palestinians starting in 1993 have not yet achieved their goal? (Total)

20

5

5

16

47

0 20 40 60

The conflict is unsolvable

Israeli inflexibility on issues such as WestBank settlements

Israel’s refusal to recognise the Palestinian’s right to their own state

Palestinian inflexibility on issues such asJerusalem and the right of return

The Palestinian refusal to recognise theexistence of the Jewish State of Israel

Plurality: Convince Palestinians they lost

9

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? (Total)

24

30

41

0 20 40 60

It will end only through a negotiatedsettlement. We must restart thediplomatic process immediately

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot besolved. We must focus on ways to

manage it

It will end only when the Palestiniansgive up their dream of eliminating Israel.We must use our power to convince the

Palestinians they have lost

Modern-Orthodox most receptive

10

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? (by Religiosity)

31

44

58

49

2529

33

46

39

20

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Secular Traditional Religious Ultra-orthodox

Convince Palestinians they lost Manage Conflict Restart Diplomatic Process

Lower support for message in South

11

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? (by Region)

42

48

4138

4037

27 27

22

37

26

38

24 23

33

22

27

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jerusalem North Haifa Centre Tel Aviv South

Convince Palestinians they lost Manage Conflict Restart Diplomatic Process

Support decreases when focus is solution

12

Which of the following is the best way to achieve Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish state? (Total)

2018

33

9

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Restart negotiations Economic developmentof WB and Gaza

Crush Palestinian will tokeep fighting

Military operations likeCast Lead and Protective

Edge

DK

Even among target groups ≤ 50%

13

Which of the following is the best way to achieve Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish state? (Target Groups)

612

6

1916

12 13 15

50

40

49

32

1014 13

10

19 21 1924

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Convince Palestiniansthey lost

Likud + RW Voters Religious Traditional

Restart negotiations Economic development of WB and GazaCrush Palestinian will to keep fighting Military operations like Cast Lead and Protective EdgeDK

The Conflict: Summary

• Scepticism about chances for end of conflict, but not all out

negativity

• Israel Victory narrative strongest, but never among a majority

• No compelling counter narrative – rather uncertainty and

scepticism conflict can be solved

• IV narrative stronger as a diagnostic tool than as a solution

14

Part 2: “Israel Victory”

‘Winning’ important, especially on the right

16

How important is it to you to achieve victory in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Target Groups)

72

65

72

64

58

21

24

21

24

26

7

11

7

12

16

0 20 40 60 80 100

Convince Palestinians they lost

Other Right Wing Voters

Likud Voters

Traditional, Religious & Ultra-Orthodox

Total

Very Important Somewhat Important Not Important

But 2/3 say nobody currently winning

17

Who do you believe is currently ‘winning’ in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? (by April 2019 Vote)

21

34

21119 6

12 8

6556

64

77

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Likud Voters Other Right WingVoters

Blue and WhiteVoters

Israel Palestinians Neither

No clear view on meaning of victory

18

How do you define an Israeli victory in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? (Total)

2

12

14

32

32

0 10 20 30 40

The current situation, as in it’s already happened

Israel is treated like an ordinary countryby the international community

The Arab states recognise Israel

Palestinians give up their goal ofeliminating the State of Israel

Peace agreement with the Palestiniansand an end to the conflict

Diplomatic ‘win’

Left clearer on meaning than right

19

How do you define an Israeli victory in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

45

17

54

22

73

1926

38

20

41

8

49

23

36

1926

17

25

0

20

40

60

80

Secular Religious B&W + LWparties

Likud + RWparties

End with Peacedeal

Convince Palsthey lost

Peace deal Palestinians give up Diplomatic

“Israel Victory” resonates with around ½

20

How does the term “Israel Victory” in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict sound to you? (Total)

26

2017

5

32

0

10

20

30

40

Sensible Inspiring Dangerous Terrifying Don’t Know

Fair with target groups, but not clear

21

How does the term “Israel Victory” in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict sound to you? (Target Groups)

58 5954

50

59

13 11 14 1712

29 31 32 32 30

0

20

40

60

80

Convince Palsthey lost

Likud Voters Other RightWing Voters

Traditional Religious

Sensible/Inspiring Dangerous/Terrifying Don't Know

“Israel Victory”: Summary

• Winning is important to the Israeli public – especially our

target groups

• Majority - nobody currently winning, moderate partisanship

• 3 way split on what victory means between peace, end of

rejectionism and diplomacy. Left much clearer on narrative

• “Israel Victory” – slogan with potential, limited negatives, but

not fully understood

22

Part 3: Policies

PA divides public; Hamas unites

24

In general, do you feel that the government is too tough, too soft or about right in its policies towards…? (Total)

103

49

82

22

5

1810

0

20

40

60

80

100

The PA in the West Bank Hamas in the Gaza Strip

Too tough Too soft About right Don’t Know

And 2/3 disapprove of government policy

25

To what extent do you approve of…? (Total)

3

19

35 35

4

21

3236

0

10

20

30

40

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disaprove Strongly Disaprove

Current government policy towards Hamas The recent ceasefire with Hamas

22% / 25% 70% / 68%

Strongly influenced by partisanship

26

To what extent do you approve of current government policy towards Hamas?

2541 43 43

29

32

43 32 2939

0

20

40

60

80

100

Likud Voters Other RWVoters

B&W + LWVoters

Secular Traditional,Religious +

Ultra-orthodox

Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove

Opposition to ceasefire strongest in N & S

27

To what extent do you approve of the recent ceasefire with Hamas? (by Region)

27 28 27 29

18 19

56

64 65 67

75 77

0

20

40

60

80

Jerusalem Haifa Tel Aviv Centre South North

Approve Disapprove Almost 50% strongly disapprove

50% want to eliminate Hamas

28

Which of the following would you most like to see the government do with regard to Hamas ? (Total)

14

5

14

18

49

0 20 40 60

None of the above

Continue the current policy, includingallowing Qatari funds into Gaza

Find a way to cooperate with Hamas

Stop supplying Gaza with food, water,fuel, and medicines

Eliminate Hamas

Targeted assassinations - preferred deterrence

29

Which, if any, of these policies do you think should be used to deter Hamas terrorist attacks from Gaza? (Total)

12

2

2

6

8

18

19

33

0 10 20 30 40

None of the above

Bury anonymously bodies of terrorists killed duringattacks

Build more settlement homes

Cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza

Cut off water, fuel, food, and medicine to Gaza

Use overwhelming force

Death penalty for convicted terrorists who committedmurder

Targeted assasinations

But death penalty popular among youth

30

Which, if any, of these policies do you think should be used to deter Hamas terrorist attacks from Gaza? (By Age – Top 3)

25

38 38

32

16

8

15

1922

0

10

20

30

40

18-34 35-54 55+

Targeted Assasinations Death Penalty Overwhelming Force

Policies: Summary

• Verdict split on government policy towards PA, but virtual

unanimity that too weak on Hamas

• Government attacked on Hamas from left and right

• Eliminating Hamas popular – but doesn’t break 50%

• Targeted assassinations and death penalty for terrorists

(among youth) popular measures of deterrence

31

Part 4: Messaging

“Win-win” the strongest message

33

To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? (Total)

33

35

37

50

67

46

35

39

32

24

0 20 40 60 80 100

Israel’s security establishment is too timid vis-à-vis the Palestinians

It’s time to stop managing the conflict and begin winning it

Negotiations with the Palestinians should take placeonly after they consistently show they accept Israel

Palestinian rejection of Israel is the source of theconflict

The Palestinian people will benefit when they stopmaking war on Israel

Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat

Especially among target groups

34

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

“The Palestinians will benefit when they stop making war on Israel“ (Target Groups)

6781 75 71 75

2416

18 22 17

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Convince Palsthey lost

Other RW Voters Likud Voters Religious

Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat

Thank You