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Surface Water Transport of Radioactivity from the Fukushima
Nuclear Power Plant Incident
William B. Samuels, Ph.D and Rakesh Bahadur, Ph.DScience
Applications International Corporation
Center for Water Science and EngineeringMcLean, Virginia
American Meteorological Society 92nd Annual MeetingJanuary
22-26, 2012
New Orleans, LA
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure2
CATS7WEarthquake epicenter and nuclear plant locations
9.0
Epicenter
Fukushima Nuclear Plant
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
CATS7WInstrumental Intensity (A scale of earthquake intensity
based on observed effects and ranging from I (detectable only with
instruments) to XII (causing almost total destruction).
Epicenter9.0
Fault PlaneSurface
Instrumental Intensity > VII
Population at Risk Intensity > VII
Tokyo
Sendai
Seismic monitoring
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Overview
• Development of Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM)•
Benchmarking of Flow Model• ICWater Model Application for
Fukushima• Interface to SHARC
4
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure5
Riverine Modeling
• CONUS • ICWater
• OCONUS • GeoSFM • ICWater
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure6
GeoSFM Overview
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Riverine Hydrodynamic Methods
7
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
LandSurface
WaterBody
Soil
Groundwateraquifer
Streamchannel
Watershed discharge
infiltration
Baseflow
Overland flow and interflow
GeoSFM
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Rainfall from CMORPH
8
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)
9
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Terrain Analysis
Terrain River DelineationBasins
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
USGS Landuse/Land Cover
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Digital Soils Map
12
Soil Depth
Texture
Hydraulic Conductivity
Soil Water Holding Capacity
Maxcover
Runoff Curve Number
Soil Map Soil Attributes
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Flow Model
Global Runoff Data Centre Observation Points
Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP
Buffer Zone 50 Km
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Benchmarking of Flow Model
GRDCObservationStation
ObservedFlow (CMS)
Modeled Flow (CMS)
2588650 140.87 118.6
2588651 124.5 92.3
2588652 107.46 71.8
2588653 64.85 46.3
2588654 25.51 31.6
2588655 27 17.7
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Transport and Dispersion using ICWATER
Rainfall – Runoff Relationship
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Properties and Dose Information in ICWater I-131 and Cs-137
16
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Dilution and Travel Time
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Rainfall Data (CMORPH) April 24, 2011
50 Km Buffer
Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Cs137 concentration April 24
50 Km Buffer
Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Source Term and Downstream Trace
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Breakthrough Curves
Breakthrough Curve @ Location 1North River
Breakthrough Curve @ Location 2South River
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© 2008 Science Applications International Corporation. All
rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Model-to-Data ComparisonICWATER Source Location 1 and Offshore
Stations 07MAY2011
Cesium-137
Representative snapshot of 137Cs predicted activity
on 07MAY2011
Bq/L< 0.10.1 11 1010 100>100
Note: Sampling activities on 07MAY were curtailed due to
inclement weather. Riverine discharge at Location 1 was transported
to the north and nearshore stations did not intersect with the
material. At offshore station S-1, model predictions were below the
detection limit.
9
S3
S1 Representative snapshot of 137Cs predicted activity on
09MAY2011
Bq/L< 0.10.1 11 1010 100>100
NS6
NS1
NS2
NS4NS5
NS3
NS13
NS7
NS8
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rights reserved. SAIC and the SAIC logo are registered trademarks
of Science Applications International Corporation in the U.S.
and/or other countries.
Energy | Environment | National Security | Health | Critical
Infrastructure
Summary and Next Steps
Summary• River model built for Japan• Benchmarking of modeled
flows with observations• Travel times and dilution factors
calculated• Source term investigation initiated• Downstream tracing
and breakthrough curves calculated• Export to SHARC
Next Steps• Data sharing with other modeling groups• Improve
source term• Perform additional model runs and validation
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Slide Number 1Slide Number 2CATS7W�Instrumental Intensity (A
scale of earthquake intensity based on observed effects and ranging
from I (detectable only with instruments) to XII (causing almost
total destruction).�OverviewSlide Number 5Slide Number 6Riverine
Hydrodynamic Methods�Rainfall from CMORPHPotential
Evapotranspiration (PET)Terrain AnalysisUSGS Landuse/Land
CoverDigital Soils MapFlow ModelBenchmarking of Flow ModelTransport
and Dispersion using ICWATERProperties and Dose Information in
ICWater � I-131 and Cs-137Dilution and Travel TimeRainfall Data
(CMORPH) �April 24, 2011Cs137 concentration �April 24Source Term
and Downstream TraceBreakthrough CurvesModel-to-Data Comparison�
ICWATER Source Location 1 and Offshore Stations 07MAY2011
�Cesium-137Summary and Next Steps
