Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

© The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2018

Surat Basin population report, 2018

Introduction

The Surat Basin population report, 2018 provides estimates of the non-resident populations of local government areas and selected localities in the Surat Basin during the last week of June 2018, based on surveys conducted by Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO). Information regarding the supply and take-up of commercial accommodation by non-resident workers is also summarised.

The non-resident population represents the number of fly-in/fly-out and drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who were on-shift in the region at the time of collection. This group includes those involved in the production, construction, and maintenance of mining and gas industry operations, projects and resource-related infrastructure.

Non-resident workers are not included in estimated resident population (ERP) data released annually by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As a result, the full–time equivalent (FTE) population estimates presented in this report, which combine the resident and non-resident populations, provide a more complete indicator of total demand for certain services than either measure used alone.

Key findings

Key findings of this report include:

• The non-resident population of the Surat Basin was estimated at 3,625 persons at the end of June 2018, around 185 persons or 5% fewer than in June 2017.

• The FIFO/DIDO workforces of three large coal seam gas (CSG) projects account for most of the Surat Basin’s non-resident population. The number of non-resident workers on-shift declined in 2017–18 as construction of gas-gathering infrastructure continued to taper off, while CSG drilling and completions activities across the region remained strong.

• In June 2018, Western Downs (R) had the largest non-resident population of all LGAs in the Surat Basin (2,255 persons, representing 62% of the regional total). Maranoa (R) (1,170 persons or 32%) and Toowoomba (R) (205 persons or 6%) made up the balance.

• Of all urban centres and localities (UCLs) in the Surat Basin, Chinchilla had the largest non-resident population (595 persons), followed by Dalby (265 persons) and Miles (210 persons). More than half (59%) of the non-resident population of the Surat Basin was accommodated in rural areas rather than towns.

• In Western Downs (R) there was a slightly larger non-resident population counted in towns (1,175 persons or 52%) than in rural areas (1,075 persons or 48%) in June 2018, a reversal of the trend in recent years.

• Worker accommodation villages (WAVs) remain the principal type of non–resident worker accommodation used in the Surat Basin, housing 2,940 non-resident workers on-shift or 81% of the total in June 2018. Other accommodation, including hotels/motels, caravan parks and private rentals, made up the remainder (685 persons or 19%).

• The proportion of non-resident workers on-shift accommodated in WAVs in the Surat Basin decreased by five percentage points to 81% over the year to June 2018. This shift was driven by changes in Western Downs (R), where operations and projects are relatively close to towns, allowing for greater utilisation of other accommodation by non-resident workers.

• The proportion of hotel/motel rooms in the Surat Basin that were vacant and available fell from 49% in June 2017 to 44% in June 2018, in part due to increased demand from non-resident workers.

Figure 1 Surat Basin region

The Surat Basin – at a glance

The Surat Basin (Figure 1) is a major energy province, based on coal seam gas production, coal mining and electricity generation. The region comprises the local government areas (LGAs) of Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R) and Toowoomba (R).

Population at June 2018:

Non-resident population ....................................... 3,625

Resident population .......................................... 214,480

Full–time equivalent population ........................ 218,105

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 2

Surat Basin update, 2017–18

In 2017–18, the upstream activity of CSG operations located in the Surat Basin (Figure 3, Table 6) remained focused on sustaining gas supplies to the three major liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in Gladstone (R), as well as increasing supply to the domestic market. Drilling and completions activities across the region remained strong, while construction of gas-gathering infrastructure continued to taper off.

The Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG) project completed construction of the Charlie Field Compressor Station near Wandoan in February 2018, marking the end of major works at the ‘Charlie’ gas expansion project, with only minor commissioning works ongoing (QGC, 2018). ‘Project Ruby’, south of Chinchilla, continued to progress to schedule during the year, with 114 of 161 wells drilled by the end of May 2018.

Ongoing drilling activity continued across the Gladstone LNG (GLNG) project acreage. GLNG remained on schedule to drill around 300 wells in 2018, with a fourth drilling rig commencing operations in May 2018 (Santos, 2018a). The Scotia CF1 project near Wandoan was completed in the June quarter, with 83 wells online. An additional workover rig was mobilised to the Fairview field during the June quarter to assist with offline wells, while production from the Arcadia field remained steady. Work on the 480-well Roma East development commenced during early 2018, with 51 wells drilled by the end of June (Santos, 2018a; Santos, 2018b).

The Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project continued development of its existing gas fields in 2017–18. It also engaged in various exploration activities during the year, including the commencement of front-end engineering and design (FEED) for the Ironbark 1 project (Origin, 2018b). APLNG completed the transition of its gas field workforce from the Condabri Central and Talinga accommodation camps in Western Downs (R) to town-based accommodation in November 2017 (Origin, 2018a). These camps were due to close towards the end of 2017 (APLNG, 2017).

Other gas projects also contributed to resource industry activity during 2017–18. In Maranoa (R), Senex Energy delivered 30 appraisal wells with associated infrastructure as part of its Western Surat Gas Project (Senex Energy, 2018), while Armour Energy successfully drilled the first well of its 2018 Kincora gas project drilling campaign (Armour Energy, 2018a; Armour Energy 2018b). Arrow Energy was engaged in continuing activity at existing operations in Western Downs (R) and Toowoomba (R), as well as commencing FEED for the Tipton Expansion, part of Arrow’s phased development activity for the Surat Gas Project (Arrow Energy, 2018). The Reedy Creek Wallumbilla pipeline was also under construction during the year, with the bi-directional pipeline officially opening in June (APLNG, 2018).

Four thermal coal mines were operating in the Surat Basin during 2017–18: Cameby Downs, Commodore, Kogan Creek, and New Acland. Activity in the region was also boosted by a number of civil works projects, including the continued construction of the Toowoomba Second Range Crossing (Nexus Infrastructure, 2018) and the ramp up of field investigations for the Inland Rail project (ARTC, 2018).

There were also four renewable energy projects under construction in the Surat Basin as at June 2018. Coopers Gap Wind Farm (AGL, 2018) and the Darling Downs Solar Farm (APA, 2018) were under construction in Western Downs (R), and the Oakey Solar Farm (Canadian Solar, 2018) and Yarranlea Solar Farm (Risen Energy, 2018) were under construction in Toowoomba (R).

Non-resident population

The non-resident population of the Surat Basin was estimated at 3,625 persons at the end of June 2018, around 185 persons or 5% fewer than in June 2017 (Table 1).

Most of the non-resident workers on-shift in the region were counted in the LGA of Western Downs (R) (2,255 persons or 62%), with around one-third counted in Maranoa (R) (1,170 persons or 32%), and the remainder in Toowoomba (R) (205 persons or 6%).

The non-resident populations of both Western Downs (R) and Maranoa (R) decreased over the year to June 2018. The number of non-resident workers on-shift in Western Downs (R) fell by 150 persons or 6%, while Maranoa (R) experienced a decline of 85 persons, or 7%.

In contrast, the non-resident population of Toowoomba (R) increased by 55 persons (or 36%) between June 2017 and June 2018. Compared with the other two Surat Basin LGAs, Toowoomba (R) had a smaller proportion of workers directly related to the CSG industry. In June 2018, non-resident workers in Toowoomba (R) were engaged in work for civil projects, including road and rail projects, and a range of support services for the CSG and mining industries.

Non-resident population

The non-resident population is the number of fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who are living in the area of their workplace at a given point in time, but who have their usual place of residence elsewhere.

Due to shift arrangements, not all members of the non-resident workforce are present in the local area at one time. For that reason, the non-resident population refers to the number of non-resident workers on-shift at a given point in time, rather than the total non-resident workforce.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 3

Table 1 Non-resident population, Surat Basin LGAs, June

LGA

2017 2018 Change, 2017 to 2018

— persons — persons %

Maranoa (R) 1,255 1,170 –85 –7

Toowoomba (R) 150 205 55 36

Western Downs (R) 2,405 2,255 –150 –6

SURAT BASIN TOTAL 3,810 3,625 –185 –5

Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest five; see Notes at end of report for details.

Source: QGSO estimates

As time series data in Figure 2 show, the non-resident population of the Surat Basin increased to a peak of 14,490 persons in June 2014, due to the presence of large temporary FIFO/DIDO construction workforces associated with three large CSG/LNG projects. As these projects transitioned from construction to production, the number of non-resident workers on-shift declined rapidly, falling by 10,675 persons between June 2014 and June 2016.

Since 2016, there has been relatively little change in the Surat Basin’s non-resident population, with only 195 fewer non-resident workers on-shift in June 2018 (3,625 persons) than in June 2016 (3,820 persons). During this period, the CSG industry in the Surat Basin focused on increasing gas supply for domestic and overseas markets. With construction of major infrastructure and pipeline networks largely complete, CSG activity mostly comprised expanded drilling programs for existing projects and new drilling projects that make best use of existing infrastructure. Companies also engaged in various exploration activities for both existing and new gas projects.

In June 2018, the Surat Basin's non-resident population mainly comprised FIFO/DIDO workers involved in CSG production, maintenance and drilling activities. Although there was ongoing construction activity, there were no major CSG infrastructure projects underway following the completion of the ‘Charlie’ gas expansion earlier in the year. Non-resident workers in the region were engaged also in the construction of renewable energy projects and civil works, such as road and rail projects.

Figure 2 Non-resident population, Surat Basin LGAs, June

Note: Estimates for 2008 do not include Toowoomba (R). Estimates for 2009 are extrapolated from 2008 data.

Source: QGSO estimates

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pers

ons

Maranoa (R) Toowoomba (R) Western Downs (R)

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 4

Figure 3 Surat Basin LGAs and selected UCLs

Source: QGSO 2016

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 5

FTE population estimates

In June 2018, the Surat Basin had an estimated FTE population of 218,105 persons, comprising 214,480 residents and 3,625 non-resident workers on-shift (Table 2). Non-resident workers on-shift made up slightly less than 2% of the region's FTE population.

At the LGA level, Toowoomba (R) had the region's largest FTE population (167,225 persons), with the non-resident component making up less than 1% of the total. Non-resident workers on-shift accounted for 6% of the Western Downs (R)’s FTE population of 36,735 persons, and 8% of Maranoa (R)'s FTE population of 13,940 persons.

Table 2 FTE population estimates, Surat Basin LGAs and selected UCLs, June 2018

LGA Location(a) UCL

Resident population(b)

Non-resident population

FTE population

— persons —

Maranoa (R) In town Injune 315 40 360

Roma 6,940 40 6,980

Other towns(c) 1,405 30 1,440

Rural areas 4,105 1,055 5,165

Maranoa (R) total 12,770 1,170 13,940

Toowoomba (R) In town Toowoomba 103,845 165 104,005

Other towns(c) 39,550 40 39,590

Rural areas 23,835 0 23,835

Toowoomba (R) total 167,225 205 167,430

Western Downs (R) In town Chinchilla 6,155 595 6,750

Dalby 12,205 265 12,470

Jandowae 1,240 60 1,300

Miles 1,220 210 1,430

Wandoan 345 45 390

Other towns(c) 1,245 0 1,245

Rural areas 12,075 1,075 13,155

Western Downs (R) total 34,485 2,255 36,735

SURAT BASIN TOTAL 214,480 3,625 218,105

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for explanation of ‘in town’ and ‘rural areas’. (b) QGSO unpublished data. (c) UCLs with only one accommodation provider or fewer than 20 non-resident workers are aggregated in ‘Other towns’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Non-resident population by location

Several urban centres and localities (UCLs) in the Surat Basin housed non-resident workers on-shift in June 2018 (Table 2). Three UCLs in Western Downs (R) had non-resident populations of 200 or more – Chinchilla (595 persons), Dalby (265 persons) and Miles (210 persons).

More than half (59%) of the non-resident population of the Surat Basin in June 2018 was counted in rural areas rather than in towns. Workers in rural areas were predominantly engaged in CSG drilling and production activities, and were almost all accommodated in WAVs located close to their place of work. In Maranoa (R), FIFO/DIDO workers in rural areas (1,055 persons or 90% of the non-resident population) far outnumbered those staying in towns (110 persons or 10%). In contrast, Western Downs (R) recorded a slightly smaller proportion of non-resident workers on-shift in rural areas (1,075 persons or 48%) than in towns (1,175 persons or 52%), while the entirety of the non-resident population of Toowoomba (R) was counted in towns (205 persons).

Full–time equivalent population

The FTE population measure is the sum of the resident population (people who live in the area permanently) and the non-resident population (i.e. the number of non-resident workers on-shift).

The FTE population measure provides a more complete estimate of total demand for certain services and infrastructure in regions with a high incidence of FIFO/DIDO workers.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 6

As Figure 4 shows, the geographical distribution of the Surat Basin’s non-resident population has varied across the region. In Maranoa (R), rural areas have historically accounted for the majority of the non-resident population due to the remote nature of much of the work. This trend continued between June 2017 and June 2018, despite a small decline in the number of non-resident workers on-shift in both rural areas (–50 persons) and in towns (–35 persons). Some of the non-resident population decline in rural areas can be attributed to a shift in the location of some gas gathering and drilling activity, which moved into neighbouring Bowen Basin LGAs.

In Western Downs (R), the reported difference between the size of the rural and in-town non-resident populations has generally been smaller than in Maranoa (R). Although the proximity of CSG activity to towns has seen a larger number of non-resident workers on-shift staying in towns in Western Downs (R), historically, the majority has been counted in rural areas. In June 2018, Western Downs (R) recorded a larger non-resident population in town than in rural areas – reversing the trend seen in recent years. The number of non-resident workers on-shift in rural areas fell by 430 persons over the year to June 2018, influenced by decreased CSG activity near Wandoan, as well as the closure of some rural WAVs and the related movement of workers into town-based accommodation. The number of non-resident workers on-shift in towns increased by 280 persons over the same period, due to workers engaged in CSG operations, coal mining, power station maintenance and construction of renewable energy projects.

Figure 4 Non-resident population by location(a), Maranoa (R) and Western Downs (R), June

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for explanation of ‘in town’ and ‘rural areas’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Non–resident worker accommodation

WAVs remain the principal type of non–resident worker accommodation used in the Surat Basin, housing around eight in ten non-resident workers on-shift (2,940 persons or 81% of the total) in June 2018 (Table 3). Other accommodation, including hotels/motels, caravan parks and private rentals, made up the remainder (685 persons or 19%).

The proportion of non-resident workers accommodated in WAVs has decreased markedly in the last two years (down 12 percentage points since June 2016). Company policies requiring more of their non-resident workers to stay in local towns while on shift have resulted in an increased uptake of other accommodation, such as hotels/motels and rented houses. In June 2018, the increased use of other accommodation types was also driven by demand from non-CSG workers, such as construction workers for renewable energy projects and maintenance workers for power stations.

This shift from WAVs to other accommodation types has occurred largely in Western Downs (R), where operations and projects are relatively close to towns, allowing for greater utilisation of other accommodation by non-resident workers. Due to the remote location of gas field development in Maranoa (R), the proportion of non-resident workers on-shift staying in WAVs has been relatively consistent over the past two years.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018

Maranoa (R) Western Downs (R)

Pers

ons

In town Rural areas

Worker accommodation villages (WAVs)

WAVs are commonly used to house unaccompanied non-resident workers. WAVs typically consist of demountable dwellings arranged in a village, with common dining, laundry and recreational facilities.

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 7

Table 3 Non-resident population by accommodation type, Surat Basin LGAs, June

LGA

WAVs Other(a) Total Non-resident population in WAVs

2018 2016 2017 2018

— persons — — % —

Maranoa (R) 1,095 70 1,170 96 91 94

Toowoomba (R) 0 205 205 0 0 0

Western Downs (R) 1,840 410 2,255 94 90 82

SURAT BASIN TOTAL 2,940 685 3,625 93 86 81

(a) ‘Other’ includes hotels/motels, caravan parks and other accommodation. Refer to Notes at end of report for additional information.

Source: QGSO estimates

There were 47 WAVs operating in the Surat Basin in June 2018 (Table 4). Nine of these were located in towns, with the majority dispersed across rural areas (38 WAVs). Around two-thirds of all WAVs in the Surat Basin in June 2018 were small establishments with a capacity of less than 100 beds (32 WAVs), of which 30 were in rural areas.

The total number of WAVs in the region fell by seven between June 2017 and June 2018, with decreases in the number of small establishments (–6 WAVs) and large establishments (–1 WAV) in rural areas. This change was due to the closure of APLNG WAVs, as well as changes to the configuration of drilling and gas gathering camps that allowed a reduced number of camps to provide a similar bed capacity.

Table 4 WAVs by size and location(a), Surat Basin, June

WAV size

2017 2018

In town Rural areas Total WAVs In town Rural areas Total WAVs

— WAVs —

Small (<100 beds) 2 36 38 2 30 32

Medium (100–499 beds) 5 6 11 5 6 11

Large (500+ beds) 2 3 5 2 2 4

Total WAVs 9 45 54 9 38 47

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for explanation of ‘in town’ and ‘rural areas’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Across the Surat Basin, the availability of hotel/motel rooms fell from 49% in June 2017 to 44% in June 2018 (Table 4). This followed a larger decline of 12 percentage points the previous year, with the availability of rooms across all LGAs falling between June 2016 and June 2017. The availability of rooms in Western Downs (R) continued to decrease in the year to June 2018, due in part to increased demand from non-resident workers on-shift. Maranoa (R) recorded an increase in vacant and available rooms to 56% in 2018, although the proportion remained below the proportion of vacant and available rooms recorded in 2016 (66%).

Table 5 Vacant and available hotel/motel rooms, Surat Basin LGAs, June

LGA

Occupied by non-resident

workers Vacant and available(a) Balance(a)

Total hotel/motel

rooms(a) Vacant and available hotel/motel rooms

2018 2016 2017 2018

— rooms — — % —

Maranoa (R) 65 360 225 650 66 49 56

Toowoomba (R) 160 590 890 1,640 50 37 36

Western Downs (R) 300 565 290 1,160 72 63 49

SURAT BASIN TOTAL 525 1,520 1,405 3,450 61 49 44

(a) Refer to Notes at end of report for explanation of ‘vacant and available’ and ‘balance’.

Source: QGSO estimates

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 8

Table 6 Existing resource operations(a), Surat Basin, June 2018

Category Operation name Company name LGA

CSG APLNG drilling and completions APLNG(b) Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)

CSG APLNG Surat operations and gas gathering APLNG(b) Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)

CSG Arrow Energy Surat operations Arrow Energy Western Downs (R)

RI Braemar Power Station Alinta Energy Western Downs (R)

RI Braemar 2 Power Station Arrow Energy Western Downs (R)

CM Cameby Downs mine Yancoal Australia Western Downs (R)

CM Commodore mine Millmerran Power Partners Toowoomba (R)

RI Condamine Power Station QGC Western Downs (R)

RI Daandine Power Station Arrow Energy Western Downs (R)

RI Darling Downs Power Station Origin Energy Western Downs (R)

CSG GLNG drilling and completions GLNG(c) Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)

CSG GLNG Surat operations and gas gathering GLNG(c) Maranoa (R), Western Downs (R)

CM Kogan Creek mine CS Energy Western Downs (R)

RI Kogan Creek Power Station CS Energy Western Downs (R)

RI Millmerran Power Station InterGen Toowoomba (R)

CM New Acland mine New Hope Group Toowoomba (R)

RI Oakey Power Station ERM Power Toowoomba (R)

CSG QCLNG drilling and completions QCLNG(d) Western Downs (R)

CSG QCLNG Surat operations and gas gathering QCLNG(d) Western Downs (R)

RI Roma Power Station Origin Energy Maranoa (R)

CSG Western Surat Gas Project Senex Energy Maranoa (R)

CM = coal mine CSG = coal seam gas RI = related infrastructure

(a) Includes coal mining operations, CSG operations, and other resource industry related infrastructure as at June 2018. Operations that are in care and maintenance are not included in this list.

(b) Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) is a joint venture between Origin Energy, ConocoPhillips and Sinopec.

(c) Santos Gladstone LNG (GLNG) is a joint venture between Santos, PETRONAS, Total and KOGAS.

(d) Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG) is a joint venture between QGC, CNOOC and Tokyo Gas.

Source: QGSO unpublished

Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 9

Notes

(R) – Regional Council UCL – Urban Centre/Locality

Data in this report are derived from surveys conducted by QGSO in 2018 and other sources. The Survey of Accommodation Providers counted non-resident workers staying in worker accommodation villages (WAVs), hotels, motels, caravan parks and other commercial accommodation on a medium to long-term basis during the last week of June 2018. Short-term and overnight visitors are not regarded as non-resident workers. The Resource Employment Survey collected workforce information from all resource companies with existing operations and projects in the Surat Basin as at June 2018.

Non-resident workers are people who fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) to work and live in the area temporarily while rostered on, and who have their usual place of residence elsewhere. Non-resident workers include FIFO/DIDO mining and gas industry employees and contractors, construction workers and associated sub-contractors. Figures in this report refer to the number of non-resident workers on-shift, or present in the area at a given point in time, and should not be confused with total non–resident workforce numbers.

Non–resident population data presented in this report are a point in time measure, based on the best information available at the time of the surveys. Non–resident worker numbers may vary in response to changing production demands, prevailing weather and industrial disputes. At the time of the 2018 surveys, the number of non-resident workers on-shift in the Surat Basin was unaffected by adverse weather events or widespread industrial action.

Resident population estimates for 2018 are QGSO estimates.

‘In town’ includes populations counted in defined urban centres and localities (UCLs), as well as non-resident workers housed within 5km of town. ‘Rural areas’ include populations outside of defined UCLs, including non-resident workers more than 5km from town.

‘Other’ accommodation includes hotels/motels, caravan parks and other private rental accommodation.

‘Vacant and available’ refers to hotel/motel rooms that were not occupied by non-resident workers or other guests, and were vacant and available on the night of the survey. ‘Balance’ includes hotel/motel rooms occupied by short-term visitors, held for non-resident workers under permanent booking arrangements but not actually occupied on the night of the survey, or otherwise unavailable to prospective guests.

Figures in tables have been rounded to the nearest five. As a result of rounding, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals. Percentages and other calculations are made prior to rounding of figures and discrepancies might therefore exist between these calculations and those that could be derived from the rounded figures.

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APA (2018) Newsletter #3 Darling Downs Solar Farm, March 2018 https://www.apa.com.au/globalassets/documents/our-current-projects/ddsf/ddsf_newsletter-03_015.pdf

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Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Surat Basin population report, 2018 10

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