Support to the Sustainable Energy Program for Trinidad and Tobago (2014)

8/10/2019 Support to the Sustainable Energy Program for Trinidad and Tobago (2014)

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SupporttotheSustainableEnergyProgramme

(TT

L1023)

FinalReport

Onbehalfof

Inter AmericanDevelopmentBank

Barcelona,9.7.2014


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TheGovernmentoftheRepublicofTrinidadandTobago(GoRTT) is intheprocessof

developing a Sustainable Energy Program (SEP), which aims to manage its naturalresourcesinamoresustainableway,enhancingtheuseofRenewableEnergy(RE)andEnergyEfficiency(EE). Aspart of this process,the InterAmerican DevelopmentBank(IDB), who is supporting the SEP through a policy loan, has commissioned theconsortiumoftheCentreofPartnershipsforDevelopment(CAD),ProjektConsultandLKSIngenieriatodevelopconsultancyservicesinordertosupporttheimplementationoftheSEP.Thefollowingreportisasummaryofthemajorresultsofthisproject.

Thisreportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthevaluablecontributionofawiderange of stakeholders in Trinidad and Tobago. Especially, the RE and EE team of theMinistryofEnergyandEnergyAffairs,undertheleadershipofRandyMauriceandAnitaHankey,whoprovidedcontinuoussupportandinputinthepreparationofthisreport.In addition, the local consultancy firms, Energy Dynamics Limited, Smart Energy andTISSL,haveprovidedvaluableinputwithregardstotheimplementationofenergyauditsthroughouttheprocess.

We also would like to extend our special thanks to the following experts that have

authored different chapters of the report, Jochen Anrehm, Lauren Mia Britton,FernandoCasado,AndrewFerdinando,IndraHaraksingh,MichaelHoffmann,ChristophMenke,HerbertSamuelandWernerSiemers,aswellasitstwomaineditorsandprojectmanagers,JohannaKleinandDetlefLoy.

Lastly,wewouldliketothankIDBsEnergyDivisionfortheleadershiptheyareadoptingpromotingamoresustainableenergyenvironmentinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,especially Natacha Marzolf, Christiaan Gischler, Gerard Alleng, Edwin Malagn andAnaiteeMills.

CAD

Signature

LKS

Signature

ProjektConsult

Signature


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AboutCAD

CAD (Centre of Partnerships for Development) is a network of international expertsspecialized in international development, local economic development and public

privatepartnerships,withafocusonGreenEconomyandSustainableEnergy,SMEsindeveloping countries, entrepreneurship, Base of the Pyramid and Monitoring andEvaluationtoolsandmethods.

AboutProjektConsult

Projekt Consult is engaged in the management and execution of projects ininternational cooperation programs. Prime emphasis is given to the promotingenvironmentallysoundworkproceduresandparticipatoryapproaches,aswellastheapplication and transfer of needsoriented technology acceptable to the community.

ProjektConsultGmbH,working inclosecooperationwithdonoragenciesandprojectpartners, has developed comprehensive solutions whichcorrespondtotheparticularsocioeconomic,culturalandecologicalsituation.

AboutLKSIngenieria

LKS is an international engineering and consultancy cooperative which providesstrategicadvice,projectassessmentandprojectdevelopmentexpertiseinvariousareasincludingsustainabledevelopmentinwhichithasexpertsinrenewableenergies,energyefficiencyandclimatechange.


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CONTENT

1 ExecutiveSummary........................................................................................................1

2 Introduction...................................................................................................................8

2.1 LimitationsoftheReport.............................................................................................9

3 BaselineforElectricityGenerationandConsumption.................................................10

3.1 ObjectiveandScopeoftheBaseline.........................................................................10

3.2 TheTrinidadandTobagoEnergyMatrix....................................................................10

3.3 NaturalGasandDieselOil(FinalUse)appliedforElectricityGeneration.................12

3.3.1 AnnualDomesticConsumptionofNaturalGasandLNGExport.........................12

3.3.2 AnnualConsumptionofOil..................................................................................14

3.3.3 ProjectionsofNaturalGasforElectricityGeneration..........................................16

3.4 TypeandGenerationEfficienciesofExistingandFuturePowerPlants....................20

3.4.1 ProjectedTypeandGenerationEfficienciesofPowerPlants..............................21

3.5 LongertermDevelopmentofPowerGenerationCapacity.......................................22

3.6 PeakLoadsandPeakDemand...................................................................................23

3.7 PastandfutureDevelopmentofCO2EmissionsinthePowerSector.......................24

3.7.1 DevelopmentofpastCO2EmissionsinthePowerSector...................................24

3.7.2 EstimatedneartermDevelopmentofCO2Emissions(BaselineScenario)..........26

3.8 TypicalDailyLoadCurves...........................................................................................28

3.9 TransmissionandDistributionGridandPlansforReinforcementorExtension.......30

3.10 ElectricityGenerationCosts.......................................................................................33

3.11 Conclusionsofbaselinestudy....................................................................................34

4 EnergyPolicy................................................................................................................36

4.1 Mainactors................................................................................................................36

4.1.1 MinistryofEnergyandEnergyAffairs(MEEA).....................................................37

4.1.2 T&TECandIndependentPowerProducers..........................................................39

4.2 LegalandRegulatoryFrameworkandSupportingPolicies.......................................424.2.1 Statusquooftheregulatoryframework.............................................................42

4.2.2 AmendingoftheTrinidadandTobagoElectricityCommissionActandtheRICact..............................................................................................................................43

4.2.3 TargetsforRE.......................................................................................................44

4.3 InputtotheGreenPaper...........................................................................................46

4.3.1 ProposedadaptationstotheDraftoftheGreenPaperforEnergyPolicy..........47

4.3.2 Proposedchangesandclarificationstothepolicymeasures..............................48

4.3.3 Summarytableofallrevisions.............................................................................54

4.4 ElectricityTariffsandSubsidySchemes.....................................................................55


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4.4.1 TariffSchedule.....................................................................................................55

4.4.2 Subsidies...............................................................................................................59

4.5 AdaptationofcriteriaforusingtheGreenFund.......................................................62

4.6 FinancingofSEPprojects...........................................................................................62

4.7 Needsforcapacitybuildingandinstitutionalstrengthening....................................63

5 EnergyEfficiency..........................................................................................................65

5.1 EnergyEfficiencyPotential........................................................................................65

5.1.1 WhichTechnologieshavePotential?...................................................................65

5.1.2 TheViabilityofEnergysavingTechnologies........................................................67

5.1.3 HowisUptaketobeencouraged?.......................................................................69

5.1.4 AnoteonBehavior..............................................................................................69

5.2 ProposedEEProgrammes..........................................................................................70

5.2.1 ResidentialSector................................................................................................70

5.2.2 HotelSector..........................................................................................................75

5.2.3 Commercial&SmallIndustrialSector.................................................................79

5.2.4 Government.........................................................................................................81

5.3 EnergyEfficiencyActionPlan&Budget.....................................................................87

5.3.1 ExistingActivities..................................................................................................87

5.3.2 EnergyEfficiencyTargets,ActionPlanandBudgetPlan......................................88

5.4 EnergyPolicymeasureswithregardstoEE...............................................................92

5.4.1 GeneralrecommendationsforEEPolicies...........................................................92

5.4.2 ProposedTrinidadandTobagoEnergyAgency...................................................94

5.5 ESCOCertificationCommittee...................................................................................96

5.5.1 Background..........................................................................................................96

5.5.2 RecommendationsonESCODefinition,ProceduresandProtocol......................97

5.6 EnergyAudits...........................................................................................................102

5.6.1 Buildingselectionmethodology.........................................................................102

5.6.2 Auditorselection................................................................................................104

5.6.3 Auditsupport.....................................................................................................105

5.6.4 GuidelinesforEnergyAudits..............................................................................106

5.6.5 ResultsoftheAuditingProcess..........................................................................106

5.6.6 ShortcomingsandConclusionsoftheAuditingProcess....................................113

5.6.7 NextSteps..........................................................................................................115

6 RenewableEnergy.....................................................................................................118

6.1 Establishmentofmechanismsforfeedingenergyintothegrid..............................118

6.1.1 FeedinTariffs....................................................................................................118


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6.1.2 NetMetering.....................................................................................................120

6.1.3 NetBilling...........................................................................................................121

6.1.4 CompetitiveBidding...........................................................................................122

6.1.5 RenewablePortfolioStandards.........................................................................124

6.1.6 TheDevelopmentofPowerPurchaseAgreements...........................................124

6.2 GenerationCostsforOnshoreWindFarmsandSmallscalePVSystems...............125

6.2.1 LevelizedCostofEnergy(LCOE) Background..................................................125

6.2.2 WindPower........................................................................................................126

6.2.3 Photovoltaics......................................................................................................134

6.3 OffshoreWindEnergy..............................................................................................145

6.3.1 Statusofoffshorewindenergy..........................................................................145

6.3.2 Costsofoffshorewindpower............................................................................146

6.3.3 Offshorewindpowerandrisksofhurricanes....................................................147

6.3.4 Environmentalimpact........................................................................................147

6.3.5 Offshorelocationavailability.............................................................................147

6.3.6 Conclusionsandrecommendations...................................................................148

6.4 PotentialforSolarWaterHeating...........................................................................148

6.4.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................148

6.4.2 SolarResources..................................................................................................151

6.4.3 TechnologyofSolarWaterHeaters...................................................................155

6.4.4 ConsumptionofHotWater................................................................................157

6.4.5 Costs...................................................................................................................159

6.4.6 CostComparison................................................................................................159

6.4.7 EnvironmentalBenefits......................................................................................160

6.4.8 CurrentFiscalIncentivesforSWH......................................................................162

6.4.9 BarriersandRecommendations.........................................................................162

6.4.10 PotentialandOpportunitiesforLocalSWHManufacturing..............................165

6.4.11 CapacityBuilding................................................................................................165

6.4.12 StandardsforSWHSystemsinT&T...................................................................165

6.4.13 Conclusions........................................................................................................167

6.5 WastetoEnergy(WtE)............................................................................................169

6.5.1 LimitationsofthisChapter.................................................................................169

6.5.2 CurrentSituationofWasteManagementinTrinidad.......................................170

6.5.3 InvestigatedTechnologies..................................................................................175

6.5.4 SuggestedTechnology.......................................................................................178

6.5.5 EconomicFeasibilityofWtE...............................................................................181


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6.5.6 CurrentObstaclesfortheImplementationofWtEprojects..............................185

6.5.7 SuggestedImplementationStrategy..................................................................186

6.5.8 WtEinotherIslandCountries............................................................................188

6.5.9 SuggestedFollowUps........................................................................................190

6.5.10 Conclusions........................................................................................................191

6.6 BioenergyUseforElectricityGeneration................................................................192

6.6.1 EnergyPotentialofdifferentResources............................................................192

6.6.2 ManufacturingCapacity.....................................................................................202

6.6.3 ProposalsforPilotProjects................................................................................203

6.6.4 GridAvailabilityandGridCapacity.....................................................................203

6.6.5 TrainingandEducation......................................................................................204

6.6.6 BaselineCO2Emissions......................................................................................204

6.7 OceanEnergyforElectricityGenerationanditsApplicabilityforT&T....................205

6.7.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................205

6.7.2 PowerGenerationfromTideandCurrent.........................................................208

6.7.3 OceanThermalEnergyConversion(OTEC)........................................................211

6.7.4 ConclusionsandRecommendations..................................................................213

6.8 ApplicabilityofConcentratedSolarPower..............................................................215

6.8.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................215

6.8.2 CurrentandfutureCostDevelopmentofCSPTechnology................................216

6.8.3 SummaryandRecommendations......................................................................217

6.9 RenewableEnergyActionPlan................................................................................218

7 LongtermScenarios................................................Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.1.1 ProjectionsforPopulationandGDPGrowth...Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.2 BusinessasUsualProjectiontill2032...................Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.2.1 ProjectedOilProduction&Consumption........Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.2.2 ProjectedNaturalGasProduction&ConsumptionFehler! Textmarke nicht

definiert.

7.2.3 AdjustedGDPProjectionforrecordedNaturalGasReservesanddeclineinCrude

OilProduction.................................................................Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.2.4 ProjectedElectricityDemand(Businessasusual)Fehler! Textmarke nichtdefiniert.

7.2.5 ProjectedCO2EmissionsfromPowerGenerationFehler! Textmarke nichtdefiniert.

7.3 Scenario1:IntroductionofEnergyEfficiencyMeasures........Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.4 Scenario2:IntroductionofREcovering2.5%ofGeneratedPowerby2020....Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.


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7.5 Scenario3:IntroductionofREcovering4.0%ofpowergenerationby2020....Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.6 Scenario4:CombinationofScenarios1&2...........Fehler!Textmarkenichtdefiniert.

7.7 Scenario5:CombinationofScenarios1&3...........Fehler!Textmarke

nicht

definiert.

8 Conclusions................................................................................................................219

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................245

APPENDICES..............................................................................................................................259

AppendixA: LoadCurvesofT&TEC......................................................................................259

AppendixB: MapsofTransmissionandDistributionGrids.................................................262

AppendixC: MethodologyforResidentialBaselineandSavingsEstimates........................264

AppendixD: HighlightsoftheMyEnergy,MyResponsibilityCampaign.........................269

AppendixE: EstimateofCosts&Benefitsof150%TaxAllowanceProgram.......................271

AppendixF: StreetLightingPilotProject.............................................................................276

AppendixG: SupporttotheESCOcommittee MeetingNotes..........................................277

AppendixH: GuidelinesforEnergyAudits...........................................................................282

AppendixI: InternationalExamplesofMarketbasedFinancialMechanismsforEEandRE

MeasuresintheResidentialSector.........................................................................287

AppendixJ: CurrentElectricityGenerationCostsforOnshoreWindFarms......................291

AppendixK: SolarWaterHeating.........................................................................................292

AppendixK: WastetoEnergy Contacts.............................................................................294AppendixL: PowerOutputofthePelamisSystem..............................................................295


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LISTOFTABLES

TABLE1:CUSTOMERFORECASTBYRATECATEGORY.............................................................................................. 17

TABLE2:ELECTRICITYSALESTOEACHRATECATEGORY.......................................................................................... 17TABLE3:POWERGENERATIONPLANTSINT&T(2012).......................................................................................... 21

TABLE4:FUTUREPLANSOFPOWERGENERATIONCAPACITYINT&T(INCLUDINGRETIREMENTOFPOSPLANTIN2015)....23TABLE5:MINIMUMANDMAXIMUM'ACTUALSYSTEMLOAD'VALUESINTHEWEEK28DEC2012.................................30TABLE6:CONVERSIONCOSTSANDSPECIFICFUELCOSTSOFT&TPOWERPLANTSIN2013............................................33TABLE7:ELECTRICITYGENERATIONCOSTS............................................................................................................ 34TABLE8:RESPONSIBILITYFORTHEENERGYSECTORINT&T..................................................................................... 36TABLE9:ELECTRICITYRATESINT&T................................................................................................................... 56TABLE10:PROPOSEDELECTRICITYTARIFFSUNTIL2016......................................................................................... 58TABLE11:EETECHNOLOGIESANDTHEIRUPTAKE.................................................................................................. 66TABLE12:AVERAGEHOUSEHOLDELECTRICITYCONSUMPTION,2010...................................................................... 71TABLE13:HOUSEHOLDELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONWITHAIRCONDITIONING,2010.................................................71TABLE14:PROPOSEDEEPROGRAMMESINTHERESIDENTIALSECTOR........................................................................ 73

TABLE15:ESTIMATEDRESIDENTIALSECTORSAVINGSFROMREPLACEMENTOFBASELINETECHNOLOGIESWITHENERGYEFFICIENTTECHNOLOGIES......................................................................................................................... 74

TABLE16:RECOMMENDEDPROGRAMMESFOREEINHOTELS................................................................................. 77TABLE17:ELECTRICITYSALESTOCOMMERCIALANDINDUSTRIALCATEGORIES,2011..................................................80TABLE18:PERFORMANCERISKANDPAYBACKPERIODSASSOCIATEDWITHEETECHNOLOGIES.........................................80TABLE19:RECOMMENDEDPROGRAMMESFOREEINCOMMERCIAL&SMALLINDUSTRYSECTOR..................................81TABLE20:EXISTINGEEMEASURESIMPLEMENTEDANDFUNDEDBYGORTT............................................................... 87

TABLE21:SUMMARYOF5YEARBUDGETS,ESTIMATEDSAVINGSANDCO2AVOIDED...................................................88TABLE22:PROPOSEDRESIDENTIALSECTOREEMEASURESTOBEIMPLEMENTEDBYGORTT..........................................89

TABLE23:PROPOSEDHOTELSECTOREEMEASURESTOBEIMPLEMENTEDBYGORTT..................................................91TABLE24:PROPOSEDCOMMERCIALSECTOREEMEASURESTOBEIMPLEMENTEDBYGORTT........................................92

TABLE25:TYPICALRESPONSIBILITIESOFANENERGYMINISTRY................................................................................ 94

TABLE26:SUMMARYOFENERGYAUDITPROCEDURESANDREPORTINGPROTOCOLS...................................................100TABLE27LISTOFPRESELECTEDBUILDINGS......................................................................................................... 104TABLE28:SUMMARYOFAUDITFINDINGS.......................................................................................................... 109TABLE29:PREDICTIONOFLEVELIZEDCOSTOFWINDENERGYINUS$/MWH............................................................ 133TABLE30:ASSUMPTIONSFORLCOECALCULATION............................................................................................. 133TABLE31:LCOEFORPVSYSTEMSINTRINIDADANDTOBAGO............................................................................... 143TABLE32:CARBONABATEMENTFROMSOLARWATERHEATINGINSELECTEDCOUNTRIES.............................................161TABLE33:WASTECOMPOSITIONATTHETHREELANDFILLSITES(1995)COMPOSITION1995.....................................172TABLE34:WASTECOMPOSITION2010............................................................................................................ 173TABLE35:COMPARISONOFTHERMALCONVERSIONTECHNOLOGIES....................................................................... 178TABLE36:PRODUCTIONOFKEYCOMMODITIES .................................................................................................. 193TABLE37:PRODUCTIONOFCOMMERCIALAGRICULTURALGOODS........................................................................... 194

TABLE38:TRINIDADLANDCOVER.................................................................................................................... 195TABLE39:SUMMARYOFSOLIDBIOMASSPOTENTIALS.......................................................................................... 195TABLE40:ANIMALPOPULATIONINT&T........................................................................................................... 196TABLE41:PIGPOPULATIONINT&T................................................................................................................. 196TABLE42:NUMBERANDTYPEOFBUSINESSINT&T............................................................................................. 198TABLE43:DIFFERENTCOMMODITIESANDPRODUCTIONFIGURES........................................................................... 199TABLE44:POTENTIALSFORBIOGAS.................................................................................................................. 200TABLE45:SUMMARYMATRIXFORBIOMASSUSE................................................................................................. 202TABLE46:REINVESTMENTPLAN20142020................................................................................................... 219TABLE47:ENERGYSAVINGCOSTOFEETECHNOLOGIES....................................................................................... 268TABLE48:ESTIMATEDLIGHTINGCONSUMPTION,COST&SAVINGSFORHDCHOUSES..............................................268TABLE49:COMMERCIALANDINDUSTRIALTARIFFCATEGORIESANDSALES(2011)...................................................272

TABLE50:ESTIMATESOFCUSTOMERUPTAKEANDEXPENDITUREONTHE150%TAXALLOWANCEPROGRAM.................273TABLE51:COST(TAXESFOREGONE)OFACTIVITYUNDER150%TAXALLOWANCEPROGRAM.....................................274TABLE52ESTIMATEDBENEFITOFACTIVITYUNDERTHE150%TAXALLOWANCEPROGRAM........................................275


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TABLE53:SWHINCENTIVESINBARBADOS........................................................................................................ 292TABLE54:POWEROFTHEPELAMISSYSTEM(INKW)ANDITSINFLUENCEBYHEIGHTANDPERIODOFWAVES..................295


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LISTOFFIGURES

FIGURE1:ENERGYFLOWTRINIDADANDTOBAGO................................................................................................. 11FIGURE2:DISTRIBUTIONOFFINALCONSUMPTIONBYSECTOR.................................................................................. 11

FIGURE3:NATURALGASUTILISATIONINT&T19902013.................................................................................. 12FIGURE4:OVERVIEWOFNATURALGASCONSUMERSINT&T,INCLUDINGLNGEXPORT,2012.....................................13FIGURE5:TOTALOILPRODUCTIONANDCONSUMPTIONINT&T,20002011.........................................................14FIGURE6:CRUDEOILPRODUCTIONINT&T,19902011.................................................................................... 15FIGURE7:NATURALGASRESERVESINT&T,19992010..................................................................................... 19FIGURE8:NATURALGASDEMANDINT&T,20052015..................................................................................... 20FIGURE9:PEAKDEMANDINT&T19902012.................................................................................................... 24FIGURE10:GROSSELECTRICITYGENERATIONT&T................................................................................................ 25FIGURE11:DEVELOPMENTOFPASTCO2EMISSIONS(INMT)FROMELECTRICITYGENERATIONINT&T............................26FIGURE12:POSSIBLEDEVELOPMENTOFFUTURECO2EMISSIONSFROMELECTRICITYGENERATIONINT&T(INMT),BASELINE

SCENARIO............................................................................................................................................. 28FIGURE13:EXEMPLARYDAILYLOADCURVEINT&T:WEEKDAY................................................................................ 29FIGURE14:EXEMPLARYDAILYLOADCURVEINT&T:WEEKEND................................................................................ 29FIGURE15RENEWABLEENERGYANDENERGYEFFICIENCYATTHEMEEA................................................................... 38FIGURE16ORGANIZATIONALCHARTPROPOSEDFORTHEMEEA.............................................................................. 39FIGURE17:OPERATIONALSTRUCTUREOFT&TEC................................................................................................. 41FIGURE18:EUROPEANUNIONMEMBERSRESHAREIN2012VS.2020COMMITMENTS............................................46FIGURE19:ELECTRICITYTARIFFSINSELECTEDCARIBBEANCOUNTRIES...................................................................... 57FIGURE20:HENRYHUBNATURALGASPRICE(US$/MMBTU)MAY2011MAY2014............................................59FIGURE21:GLOBALLNGPRICES,JULY2013....................................................................................................... 60FIGURE22:NATURALGASPRICEPROJECTIONS..................................................................................................... 61FIGURE23:USEESUPPLYCURVE2020(FROMMCKINSEY)................................................................................ 68

FIGURE24:AVERAGEHOUSEHOLDELECTRICITYCONSUMPTION,2010..................................................................... 72

FIGURE25: HOUSEHOLDELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONWITHAIRCONDITIONING,2010................................................72FIGURE26: ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONBYENDUSEINHOTELSOFBARBADOS...........................................................76FIGURE27:PROPOSEDORGANISATIONCHART,T&TENERGYAGENCY...................................................................... 96FIGURE28:SUMMARYOFTHE150%TAXALLOWANCEPROCESS(DRAFT)................................................................. 98FIGURE29SELECTIONPROCESS........................................................................................................................ 102FIGURE30:GLOBALCUMULATIVEINSTALLEDWINDCAPACITYFROM19962013...................................................126FIGURE31:WINDPENETRATIONRATESINDIFFERENTCOUNTRIES........................................................................... 127FIGURE32:HISTORICALWINDENERGYCAPITALCOSTSINTHEUNITEDSTATES........................................................... 128FIGURE33:DISTRIBUTIONOFCAPITALCOSTOFAWINDTURBINEBYSECTORS............................................................ 129FIGURE34:ANNUALAVERAGEWINDSPEEDDISTRIBUTION.................................................................................... 131FIGURE35:SCENARIOSOFLCOEDEVELOPMENT................................................................................................ 132FIGURE36:AVERAGEINSTALLEDPRICEBYMARKETSEGMENTINTHEUS,Q22011Q22013....................................136

FIGURE37:EVOLUTIONOFPHOTOVOLTAICCELLEFFICIENCIESUNDERLABORATORYCONDITIONS..................................137FIGURE38:CONTRIBUTIONSTOINSTALLEDCOSTOFRESIDENTIALANDCOMMERCIALPVSYSTEMSINTHEU.S. (FIRSTHALFOF

2012)................................................................................................................................................ 139FIGURE39:HISTORICALGROWTHOFTHEGLOBALOFFSHOREWINDMARKET.......................................................... 145FIGURE40:REPORTEDCAPITALCOSTSFORGLOBALOFFSHOREWINDPROJECTOVERTIME........................................146FIGURE41:ANNUALINSTALLEDCAPACITYOFGLAZEDSOLARCOLLECTORSWORLDWIDE..............................................149FIGURE42:TOTALCAPACITYOFGLAZEDFLATPLATEANDEVACUATEDTUBECOLLECTORSINOPERATION,ENDOF2011.....150

FIGURE43:SOLARWATERHEATINGPENETRATIONINCARICOMSTATES............................................................... 151FIGURE44:WORLDMAPOFPOTENTIALSOLARPOWER(SOLARINSOLATIONINKWH/M2/DAY......................................151

FIGURE45:SOLARINSOLATIONMAPOFTHECARIBBEANDIRECTNORMALIRRADIANCE............................................152FIGURE46:SOLARINSOLATIONMAPOFTHECARIBBEANGLOBALSOLARRADIATIONTILTEDATLATITUDE....................153

FIGURE47:AVERAGEDAILYSOLARRADIATIONATUWI,TRINIDAD........................................................................ 154

FIGURE48:AVERAGESOLARRADIATIONONAHORIZONTALSURFACEINEACHMONTH...............................................154FIGURE49:AVERAGESOLARRADIATIONONANINCLINEDSURFACEINEACHMONTH.................................................155


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FIGURE50:DIMENSIONSOFSWHSYSTEMS....................................................................................................... 157FIGURE51:COSTCOMPARISONOFVARIOUSWATERHEATINGSYSTEMS................................................................... 160FIGURE52:LOCATIONSOFSWMCOLLANDFILLS................................................................................................ 171FIGURE53:PLANVIEWOFBEETHAMLANDFILL.................................................................................................. 171

FIGURE54:TYPICALDISPOSEDMSWINPORTOFSPAIN...................................................................................... 173FIGURE55:DISPOSEDMSWATBEETHAMLANDFILL........................................................................................... 174FIGURE56:ORGANICLOADSFROMPLANTATIONS,MARKETSANDGARDENSCANEASILYBESEPARATEDFROMREMAINING

WASTE................................................................................................................................................ 174FIGURE57:SCHEMATICCROSSSECTIONOFAMOVINGGRATEINCINERATOR........................................................... 180FIGURE58:SUGGESTIONFORAMANUALPRESORTINGAREA............................................................................... 180FIGURE59:SUGGESTEDLOCATIONOFFIRSTINCINERATIONPLANT......................................................................... 187FIGURE60:DEVICEWORKINGONTHEOVERTOPPINGPRINCIPLE............................................................................. 206

FIGURE61:VOITHTURBO500KWPLANTINISLAY,SCOTLAND............................................................................. 206FIGURE62:PELAMISPROTOTYPEINCONSTRUCTIONANDOFFTHECOASTOFTHEORKNEYISLESINEARLY2012...............207

FIGURE63:SEASURFACEVARIATIONDUETOLUNARTIDESINMETERS..................................................................... 209FIGURE64:SEAGENTIDALSTREAMPLANTINSTRANGFORDLOUGH,SCOTLAND........................................................210

FIGURE65:TEMPERATUREPROFILEGENERATEDWITHDATAFROMTHEATLANTICOCEANATLAS..................................212FIGURE66:YEARLYSUMOFDNIINTHEWORLD................................................................................................. 215

FIGURE67:CONCENTRATINGSOLARTHERMALPOWERINSTALLEDCAPACITY,19842012........................................216FIGURE68:LCOEOFCSPDEPENDINGONTECHNOLOGYANDRADIATION................................................................ 216FIGURE69:POPULATIONFIGURESFORTRINIDADANDTOBAGOFROM1990TO2030...............................................229FIGURE70:GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT(GDP)INREALVALUESFORTRINIDAD&TOBAGO,19902032....................230FIGURE71:PROJECTEDCRUDEOILPRODUCTION&CONSUMPTIONUPTO2032.......................................................231FIGURE72:PROJECTEDNATURALGASPRODUCTIONANDCONSUMPTION................................................................. 232FIGURE73:GDPPROJECTIONANDADJUSTMENTFORDECLINEINCRUDEOILANDNATURALGASPRODUCTION.................233FIGURE74:PROJECTEDELECTRICITYDEMANDBUSINESSASUSUAL................................................................... 234FIGURE75:PROJECTEDCO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONBUSINESSASUSUAL.....................................234FIGURE76:FOSSILFUELBASEDELECTRICITYGENERATIONSCENARIO1.................................................................. 236

FIGURE77:CO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONSCENARIO1................................................................... 236FIGURE78:FOSSILFUELBASEDELECTRICITYGENERATIONSCENARIO2................................................................... 237FIGURE79:CO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONSCENARIO2................................................................... 238FIGURE80:FOSSILFUELBASEDELECTRICITYGENERATIONSCENARIO3.................................................................. 238FIGURE81:CO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONSCENARIO3.................................................................... 239FIGURE82:FOSSILFUELBASEDELECTRICITYGENERATIONSCENARIO4................................................................... 239FIGURE83:CO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONSCENARIO4.................................................................... 240FIGURE84:FOSSILFUELBASEDELECTRICITYGENERATIONSCENARIO5................................................................... 240

FIGURE85:CO2EMISSIONSFROMPOWERGENERATIONSCENARIO5................................................................... 241FIGURE86:T&TECRESIDENTIALCUSTOMERDISTRIBUTIONCURVE,2010..............................................................266

FIGURE87:GRAPHICALCHRONOLOGYOFANNUALSWHINSTALLATIONSINBARBADOS..............................................293FIGURE88:CUMULATIVEINSTALLEDSWHSTORAGEINBARBADOS(19742002)..................................................293


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ABBREVIATIONSandACRONYMS

ADO AutomotiveDieselOil

AE AlternativeEnergyAEP AnnualEnergyProduction

AOE AnnualOperatingExpenses

BOE TrinidadandTobagoBoardofEngineers

BOOT BuildOwnOperateTransfer

BOT BuildOperateTransfer

CAD CentrodeAlianzasparaelDesarrollo(CentreofPartnershipsfor

Development)

CaO CalciumOxide

CCGT CombinedCycleGasTurbine

CEN EuropeanCommitteeforStandardizationCFL Compactfluorescentlamp

CHENACT CaribbeanHotelsEnergyEfficiencyActionProgramme

CHP CombinedHeatandPower

CO2 CarbonDioxide

CREC CaribbeanRenewableEnergyCentre

CRF CapitalRecoveryFactor

CSP ConcentratedSolarPowerDNI DirectNormalIrradiance

ECC ESCOCertificationCommittee

ECPA EnergyandClimatePartnershipoftheAmericasEE EnergyEfficiency

EEC EnergyEfficiencyCommittee

EPC EnergyPerformanceContracting

ESCO EnergyServiceCompany

EU EuropeanUnion

EVO EfficiencyValuationOrganization

FCR FixedChargeRate

GDP GrossDomesticProduct

GEF GlobalEnvironmentFacility

GHG GreenhouseGasesGoRTT TheGovernmentoftheRepublicofTrinidadandTobago

HDC TrinidadandTobagoHousingDevelopmentCorporation

ICC InstalledCapitalCost

IDB InterAmericanDevelopmentBank

IEA InternationalEnergyAgency

IMF InternationalMonetaryFund

IPP IndependentPowerProducerIRENA InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

ISO InternationalStandardsOrganisation

LCOE LevelizedCostofEnergy

LED Lightemittingdiode


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LNG LiquefiedNaturalGas

LPG LiquidPetroleumGas

MEEA MinistryofEnergyandEnergyAffairs

MPE MinistryofPlanningandtheEconomyMSW MunicipalSolidWaste

NEC NationalEnergyCorporation

NG NaturalGas

NIMBY Notinmybackyard

NPMC NationalPetroleumMarketingCompany

NREL NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

O&M OperationandMaintenance

OTEC OceanThermalEnergyConversion

OWC OscillatingWaterColumn

PBL PolicyBasedLoanPowerGen PowerGenerationCompanyofTrinidadandTobagoLimited

PSC ProductionSharingContract

PPA PowerPurchasingAgreement

PV Photovoltaic

RDF RefuseDerivedFuel

RE RenewableEnergy

REC RenewableEnergyCommittee

REEEP RenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiencyPartnership

RIC RegulatedIndustriesCommission

RO ReversalOsmosis

ROI ReturnonInvestment

SCGT SimpleCycleGasTurbine

SEP SustainableEnergyProgram

SME SmallandMediumSizedEnterpriseSWH SolarWaterHeater

SMCOL TheTrinidadandTobagoSolidWasteManagementCompany

T&T TrinidadandTobago

T&TEC TheTrinidadandTobagoElectricityCommission

TDC TourismDevelopmentCompanyofTrinidadandTobago

TGU TrinidadGenerationUnlimited

ToR TermsofReference

TTBS TrinidadandTobagoBureauofStandards

TTEA TrinidadandTobagoEnergyAgency

THA TobagoHousingAssembly

U.S.EPA UnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgency

ULSD UltraLowSulphurDieselPlant

UNDP UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

UNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme

UNIPET UnitedIndependentPetroleumMarketingCompanyLimited

USct currency,centsinUSDollar

USDA UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture


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USDOE UnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergyUWI UniversityoftheWestIndies

VAT ValueAddedTax

WACC WeightedAverageCostofCapitalWtE WastetoEnergy

UNITS

bcf billioncubicfeet

GJ Gigajoule,109Joule(energy)

GWh Gigawatthours

ha Hectare

kW,kWh kilowatt,kilowatthours(electricalpowerandwork)MMBTU MillionBritishThermalUnits

MMSCF/D MillionsofStandardCubicFeetperday

MW,MWh Megawatt,Megawatthours(electricalpowerandwork)

Nm3,m3 Normcubicmeter,cubicmeter

t,kt ton,103tons

t/a tonsperyear

t/d tonsperday

tcf trillioncubicfeet

TWh Terawatthours


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1 ExecutiveSummary

TheGovernmentoftheRepublicofTrinidadandTobago(GORTT)hasreceivedaPolicyBasedLoan

(PBL)(TTL1023)fromtheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB).ThisPBLfortheSustainableEnergyProgramconsistsofthreedifferentoperations,eachwithspecificinstitutionalandpolicygoals.TheIDBhiredtheconsortiumofCentreofPartnershipsforDevelopment(CAD),ProjektConsultandLKSin2012 to support the Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs (MEEA) with technical assistance in the

developmentofpoliciesandactivitiesthatwillpromotethedeploymentofRenewableEnergy(RE)andtheimplementationofEnergyEfficiency(EE)measures.

Thefollowing istheFinalReportoftheconsultancyservicesundertaken.Itdefinesthebaselineforelectricity generation and carbon dioxide emissions, provides recommendations on policies for aSustainableEnergyfuture,assessesthepotentialforEEinT&TandanalysestheoptionsfordifferentREtechnologiesandtheirpossibleuptakeinT&T.

BaselineforElectricityGenerationandCarbonDioxideEmissions

In2010,TrinidadandTobagogenerated8.5TWhofelectricitywithCO2emissionsof700gforeverykWhgenerated.Whencomparedtointernationalbenchmarksfor2010,thesefiguresdemonstrateahighelectricityconsumptionandCO2emissionspercapitafromenergyrelatedactivitiesatnearly2.5

times the world average.1 Plans are identified to improve the efficiency of the existing electricity

generatingplantsaswellasan intentionto incorporateasmallpercentageofREbased generationoverthecomingyears.

Theelectricitygenerationistoalmost100%basedonnaturalgas.ThecontributionofREgenerationisnegligiblewithonlyafewresidentialandcommercialmicroscalesystemsconnectedtothegridoroperatingasstandalonesystems.

T&Thaslargenaturalgasreservesandgasextractionhasincreasedsignificantlyoverthepast22yearsfrom177bcfin1990to811bcfin2011.Therehasbeennoshortageofgasforlocalconsumptionand

duetoasubstantialincreaseintheindustrialnaturalgasuse,powergenerationonlyaccountsfor8%oftheannualgasproduction,with56%beingexportedasLNG(liquefiednaturalgas).Thisabundanceaccompaniedbylowpriceshasmadegastheobviouschoiceofenergyforelectricitygenerationupto

nowandforthemediumtermfuture.

However,arapidlyincreasingdemandforelectricityinallsectorsinlinewithGDPgrowthandreduced

exportationofCrudeOilwillresultinalargerproportionofgasbeingdesignatedtopowergeneration,

withtheconsequentincreaseinlocalCO2emissions.ItisthereforeessentialthatconcertedeffortsaremadetointroduceahigherpercentageofREintothepowergenerationequationalongwithparallel

EEimplementationatboththegenerationandenduselevel.

Basedonthegrowthratesseenoverthepast20years(average4.4%perannum)itisexpectedthatby2020,T&T'sgrosspowergenerationoutputwillbe13.0TWh,equivalenttoaround10,000kWh

percapita,farhigherthaninmanyindustrializedcountries,unlessdemandcurbingmeasuresarebeingintroduced.2 The projected increase in consumption needs to be tackled accordingly. Whenextrapolating this further to 2032, T&T's gross power generation output could reach almost 16.8

1 InternationalEnergyAgency:CO2Emissionsfromfuelcombustion,2012

2 E.g.7,081kWh/cap.InGermanyand5,516kWh/cap.intheUnitedKingdomin2011.See: ttp://wdi.worldbank.org/table/5.11


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TWh, equivalent to around 12,000 kWh per capita, under a businessasusual scenario. However,

industrializednationsexperienceasaturationofelectricityconsumptionatsomepoint.

An elevated electricity demand will need to be more efficiently generated in order to avoidaugmentingcarbonemissionsfromincreasedfuelconsumption.Thethermalefficiencyoftheexistingeightpowerplantsislow.Theproposedmeasures,whichconsistmainlyinsubstitutingsimplecycle

gas turbines with combinedcycle plants could achieve a 45% efficiency improvement by 2020, asignificantstepforwardagainstcurrentefficiencyratesofanaverageofabout27%.Moreover,lookingasfaras2032,suchenergysavingmeasureswillenablethenaturalgasproductionsectortoincreaseits share of exports, generating increased revenue compared to the costinefficient and subsidized

domesticmarket.

EEmeasuresimplementedinbuildingsandindustrialprocessescouldsignificantlylowerthedemandforelectricityandrelatedgasconsumption,whichinturnwouldleadtoreducedCO2emissions.

However, there are currently various barriers, which do not incentivize the implementation of EEmeasuresandtechnologies;oneofthesearetheexistinglowtariffsforelectricity.Duetothereducedratesforlocalgasconsumption,electricitycustomersinT&Tenjoyverylowtariffsincomparisontoother countries in the region, with prices seven times lower than the Caribbean average. Negative

consequences include potential discouragement of both supplyside and demandside efficiency

improvements,thepromotionofnoneconomicconsumptionofenergy.Finallyandimportantlyinthecontextofthisassignment,fossilfuelenergysubsidieshinderthedevelopmentofREtechnologiesbymakingthemeconomicallyuncompetitive(WB,2010).

IncreasingthepercentageofREinT&T'selectricitygenerationmixwillbevitalinreducingoverallCO2emissions. There are a number of zero carbon technologies available, which could potentially be

appliedbothatanationalandlocalscaletogenerateemissionfreeelectricityandreducethecountryscarbonfootprint.GoRTThasexpressed itsplantoincreasetheshareofREbasedpowergeneration

and has envisaged a respective target of 60 MW RE capacity by 2020 as part of its Green Paper.Althoughsmall(around2.5%ofoverallpowergenerationcapacity)itwillbeastepforwardinreducingoverallemissionsandisafoundation,onwhichfurtherREprojectscanbebuilton.

LegalandRegulatoryFrameworkandSupportingPolicies

The most important policy is the Green Paper on Sustainable Energy that is currently underdevelopment andwill befed into anational consultationprocessforfurtherdiscussion.TheGreenPaperwillprovidetheoverallguidelinesforimplementationofEEandREmeasuresinthefuture.While

thedraftGreenPaperenvisagestoincreasetheshareofREtoabout2.5%ofoverallpowergenerationby2020,theconsultantsrecommendraisingthistargettoatleast4%tocreatesufficientmarketsizethatcouldthenleadtolowerspecificcostsandastrengthenedbusinesssector.AsunderthisscenariosufficientmarketsizetomakeREmoreattractivewouldhavebeenreached,itisexpectedthata0.5%

increaseperyearinthefirst8yearsupto2020,followedbya1%increasethereafter,yieldinga16%shareofREelectricityby2032.

InordertocreatethelegalandregulatoryrequirementsforREinT&Titwillbenecessarytoamend

theTrinidadandTobagoElectricityCommissionActthatcurrentlydoesnotallowforwheelingorthefeedingofelectricityfrom independentoperators intothegridwithoutconsentofthestateownedutility.Oncethelegalframeworkisinplace,itissuggestedtoconcentrateonthedevelopmentoffeed

intariffsforgridconnectedsmallerscaleREfacilities,namelysolarPVandsmall,assourcesofREwith

thelargestpotential.Theintroductionofanetmeteringornetbillingschemesarenotadvisableunder

the current conditions with highly subsidized consumer tariff rates, as PV investments would need


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significantadditionalfinancialandfiscalincentivestobecompetitive.Forutilityscalewindandsolar

plants, competitive bidding is recommended, which will allow site and capacity planning that fits

generationexpansionplansandusesexistingresourcesadequately.TostimulatetheinitialuptakeofhouseholdPVsystems,itisrecommendedthata100roofsprogrambedeveloped.

Lowelectricitytariffsareonemajorreasonfor lowenergyefficiency inT&T.Inordertoexploitthe

potential of EE and RE in the country, electricity tariffs need to be further increased. Other policyrecommendationsthatcouldhaveavisibleimpactonenergyefficiencyincludetheenactmentofanEnergy Efficiency Law, as well as demandsidemanagement programs, a market ban of inefficientconsumer products, such as incandescent light bulbs, the development of minimum efficiency

standards and labelling programs, as well as the introduction of energyrelated building standards,includingthemandatoryuseofsolarwaterheatersatleastinspecificcases.ItisalsorecommendedtoexpandtheinfrastructureinawaythatSMEscanbenefitfromdirectsupplyofnaturalgasandto

installsmartmeters.

EnergyEfficiency

(EE)

It iswidely acceptedthat EE is oneofthe leastcost ways of satisfying growing demand forenergyservices. No comprehensive study has previously been made of the EE potential in Trinidad and

Tobago,butourreviewindicatesauniquecaseintheCaribbean:verylowretailenergyprices;aper

capitaenergyconsumptionexceedingNorthAmericanandmostEuropeanlevels;andalowappetiteforEEtechnologiesandpracticesacrosstheboard.

ThemostimportantbarrierstoEEuptakearethecountryslowretailenergyprices(whicharelargely

a consequence of price subsidies employed by the Government) and low levels of public energyawarenessandliteracy.UnlikeelsewhereintheCaribbean,limitedaccesstofinancingisnotafactor

ofsignificance.

Inrelationtopolicysetting,theuptakeofEEtechnologieswillbeinfluencedbythespecificmixofand

interactionbetween:informationprovided,incentivessetandregulationsimposedbytheauthorities.Policyinturnmusttranslateintospecificprogramsineachsectorasproposedbelow.

The residential sector is almost fully electrified and consumes 29% of total electricity. Average

householdconsumptionisthehighestintheCARICOMregion,anditisconsideredthatthereisalarge

potentialforenergysavingsthroughefficiency inthesector.Fourmainresidentialenergyefficiencyinterventionsarerecommended,aimedat:

Reducingtheuseofelectricityforwaterheating; Encouragingtheuseofenergyefficientappliancesandlighting;

Reducingenergyconsumptioninthesocialhousingsector;

Engagingandmotivatingconsumerstoadoptnocost,durableenergysavingsbehaviours.

Overthefirstfiveyears,estimated savings fromtherecommended residentialEEmeasures, wouldamount to 930 GWh of electricity worth US$ 46.5 million at current electricity rates; and avoided

emissionsofsome651ktofcarbondioxide(CO2).

TrinidadandTobagohasover6,300hotelrooms,withatotalannualelectricityconsumptionestimated

at76GWh.It isrecommendedthatthehotelsector invests inEE interventionsaspartofaholisticsustainability strategy,aimed at increasing overall sector performance. In this context, we proposefourgeneralprograminterventions,to:


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Improveairconditioningefficiency;

Usemoreefficientlightingandcontrols;

Usemoreefficientequipmentandappliances;

Encouragegreenhotelcertification.

Based on an assessment, implementation of these measures can allow the hotel sector to achieveaggregatesavingsof10.3GWhofelectricityoverafiveyearperiod.

Overall,thecommercialandindustrialsectorconsumedsome5,600GWhofelectricityin2011,which

was twothirds of the countrys total electricity consumption. In the absence of specific industrial

sectorenduseconsumptiondata,itcanreasonablybeassumed,thatelectricmotors,processheating,

cooling,ventilationandlightingaresignificantendusers.TherelevantEEinvestmentsthatprocessingandmanufacturingfirmsshouldmakeinclude:

RetrofitofmotorswithVariableFrequencyDrive(VFD)systems3;

Processheatingretrofits;

Installationofhighefficiency,chilledbeamairconditioningsystems; Lightingreplacements/retrofitsandimplementationoflightingcontrolsystems.

Itisestimatedthatoverthefirstfiveyears,amodesttotalof224commercialandindustrialcustomerswilltakeadvantageoftheproposedEnergyServiceCompany(ESCO)150%TaxAllowanceProgram,resultinginacumulativesavingsovertheperiodofapproximately33GWhofelectricity.

TheuptakeofviableEEtechnologieswillbeinfluencedbythespecificmixofinformation,incentives

andregulations,deliveredundertheumbrellaofGovernmentpolicy.GoRTThasalreadycommencededucationandawareness programs,aswellas incentivesforpromotingEE.Continuedgovernment

actioninfourareasisrecommended:

Deliveryofinformation;

Designandimplementationofincentives;

Enactingandenforcementofregulations; Designand implementationofspecificprojects(suchasenergyauditsand interventionson

highprofilegovernmentbuildings).

Inrelationtoinstitutionalarrangements,theestablishmentofaTrinidadandTobagoEnergyAgency(TTEA)isrecommended;withresponsibilityforensuringthepromotionofREandEE,supportingtheMEEAbyoutsourcingactivitiesthatarenotpartofthecorefunctionsoftheMinistry.

GivenGoRTTsmaintenanceofasystemofsignificantpricesubsidies,themarketsituationdoesnotencourageprivate investment inEEand it isrecommendedthatGoRTTmust leadbyexamplewithspecificinitiatives.

Aspartofthisintervention,GoRTT,withsupportfromexternalenergyexperts,hasundertakenenergyaudits inpublicbuildings.Results indicatethatenergysavingpotentialsarehigh inalltheselectedbuildings. Energy savings of over 22% can be achieved through the implementation of energy

conservationand/orrenewableenergymeasureswithapaybacktimeoflessthanfiveyears.Beside

thesepromisingsavingpotentials,theauditsalsoresultedinanumberofinterestinglessonsforthe

3 AVariableFrequencyDrive(VFD)orVariableSpeedDrive(VSD),isanelectroniccontroldeviceusedinelectromechanicaldrivesystemstocontrolthespeedandturningforceofalternatingcurrentmotors,byvaryingthemotorinputfrequencyandvoltage.VFDs

areusedinapplicationsrangingfromsmallappliancestothelargestmotorsandcompressors,andallowsignificantenergysavings

comparedtooperationinfixedspeedmode.


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MEEAandtheESCOCertificationCommittee(ECC).Theseincludedtheneedforcapacitybuildingof

auditors,andtheneedforanincreasedfocusonpassivesolutionswithregardtobuildingenvelope

improvements.

The proposed fiveyear

budget plan for the implementation of all EE measures estimates an

expenditureofUS$23.3million,resultingincumulativeenergysavingsof972.9GWh,costsavingsofUS$48.6millionandavoidedemissionsof681ktofCO2overtheperiod.

To promote EE in the housing sector, a full Global Environment Facility (GEF) proposal has beendeveloped.TheProjectInformationForm(PIF)wasapprovedasofearly2014.TheGEFprojectintents

tofocusonpromotingEEinthesocialhousingsector,assistingtheirlowincomeuserstosaveasmuch

energyandexpendituresaspossible.Itisexpectedthattheexperiencesgainedinthisprojectwillalsohaveconsiderableeffectonthehousingmarketanddomesticsectoringeneral.

ThepotentialofdifferentREtechnologiesinT&T

AllpossibletechnologiesforRE inT&Tthatcouldtheoreticallybeapplied,havebeenassessed.PV,

SWHandonshorewindenergyarethemostpromisingtechnologies.Tosupportagenerousuptakeofthesetechnologies,detailedtechnicalstudiesarenecessary,suchasadetailedwindmeasurementtoassessthepotentialelectricityyieldatconcretesites.

WindPower

WhilewindpowerisnotusedinT&Tatpresent,theGoRTTplanstoinstallawindcapacityequivalentof5%ofthetotalgenerationcapacityby2020.T&Tliesinanareawithstrongwindsallyearroundand

theGoRTTiscurrentlyundertakingawindassessmenttodefinetheexactpotentiallocationsforwind

farms.BasedonexperiencesinotherCaribbeanislandsitseemslikelythatacapacityfactorofatleast35%canbeachieved.

It is relevant to note that when it comes to the cost of installing wind turbines in T&T, it is more

expensivethaninmostothercountries,duetothelackofroadinfrastructuretocopewithoversized

trucks,etc.Anothermajorconstraintisthelikelyunavailabilityoflargecranesnearthesiteandthelackoftrainedassemblycrews.AsmorewindturbinesareinstalledintheCaribbeanaswellasinT&T

thosecostswillreduceveryquickly;however,itisacostfactorthatneedstobetakenintoaccount.

Tobeabletocapitalizeontheexistingpotentialforwindfarms,legislationthatallowswindfarmstobeoperatedbyindependentpowerproducersneedstobeestablishedandasubsidyschemeforthepromotionofwindfarmswouldneedtobeestablished.

Offshorewindpowerwillbeasignificantsourceofelectricityinthefuture,butbeforeTrinidadcanstarttoexplorethisresource,theonshoremarketshouldbe developed,asexperience gainedwithwind turbines on land is essential. At the same time, as offshore wind power is still in its earlydevelopment,itrequiresstrongandlonglastingtechnologysupportschemesbygovernments,aswell

asverystrongengineeringskillstoovercometechnicalchallenges.ItisthereforenotadvisableforT&Ttouseitsresourcesonventuringintooffshoredevelopmentatthecurrentstage.

SolarPV

In the case of Trinidad and Tobago, it is relevant to note that hardware costs are no longer the

determining factor for the overall installed costs. Particularly for small residential systems, the socalledsoftcostsforsalestaxes,permissionfees,labour,transaction,etc.byfaroutnumberthosefor

thecombinedcostsofmodules,inverterandcabling,astheanalysisoftheU.S.marketdemonstrates.


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This means that a high percentage of the total value chain is raised, and remains within the local

economy,despitethefactthatmosthardwareneedstobeimported.

TheexampleofGermanywithaverymaturephotovoltaic(PV)marketshowsthatsoftcostscanbefurtherloweredwithincreasedexperienceandmarketpenetration.ThisisthemainreasonforanearlystartintoPVapplicationatabroaderscale,evenifgenerationcostsmaynotbefullycompetitivewith

othersupplyoptionsatthemoment.

With price levels experienced in Germany today, it would be possible to achieve levelized costs inTrinidadandTobagoofbetweenUS$ct8.8to13.5perkilowatthour(kWh),dependingonthesizeof

thesystem.Basedonmoreconservativeparameters,takingintoaccountthepracticallynonexisting

PVmarketinTrinidadandTobago,levelizedcostshavebeencalculatedtobebetweenUS$ct14.0and28.8perkWhat2012prices.

Various examplesfrom the Dominican Republic, St.Kitts, Cayman Islands, Puerto Rico and Jamaica

show that solarelectricity isnowbecoming acommon feature intheelectricitysupply sector.Thisrangesfromsmallresidentialrooftopsystemsto largegroundmountedsolarfarmswith20MWormore. This also demonstrates that integration of such large solar plants with fluctuating electricitygeneration into relatively small generation systems is technically possible. Those PV plants can

therefore compete with traditional fossil fuel power generation, if electricity is rated at full costs,

excludingalldirectandindirectsubsidies.

SolarWaterHeating

IncomparisontootherislandsintheCaribbean,thedeploymentofSWHinT&Tisverylimited.ItisestimatedthatthereareonlyafewhundredSWHsystemsintheentirecountry.AllSWHsystemsin

T&Tareimportedmodelsastherearecurrentlynolocalmanufacturers.However,besidesitslimitedapplication,thepotentialforSWHisextremelyfavourable,assolarinsolationlevelsarehighandDNI

values are close to the global irradiance values on an inclined surface, which guarantees optimal

performanceofsolarenergysystems.

ToencourageuptakeofSWH,theGoRTThasdevelopedanumberoffiscalincentives,suchasa25%

taxcredit,0%VATonSWH,a150%wearandtearallowance,aswellasconditionaldutyexemptions

formanufacturers.Whiletheseincentiveshavestimulatedsomegrowth,generaluptakehasbeenslow

fromacommercial,aswellasfromadomesticuserperspective.

ThemajorbarrierfortheuptakeofSWHremainstobefinancing.Thelowcostofelectricity,coupledwithinsufficientincentivesmakethecostofSWHprohibitive,especiallyforpoorerhouseholds.Atthe

sametime,thereisonlyverylimitedpublicawarenessaboutSWHandtheiradvantagesandqualityofservicewithregardstodesign,installationandmaintenanceisstillpoor.

In order to reach significant impact a penetration of about 10,000 SWH systems would need to be

realized.Usinganadequateincentivescheme,asadoptedbyBarbados,T&TcouldseeasimilargrowthasBarbadosdid inthe1980s.Toachievethisobjective,thedevelopmentofaspecificgovernmentprogramcombiningincentives,capacitybuilding,awarenessraising,standardsandtestingwouldbenecessary.

WastetoEnergy

Likemostislandcountries,T&TfacesincreasingproblemswithitsdisposalofMunicipalSolidWaste(MSW).Theexistingdisposalfacilitiesaresimpledumpsiteswithoutproperenvironmentalprotection,


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leading to increasing pollution of surrounding surface and ground water. At the same time, the

establishmentofnewlandfillsisamajorchallengeduetolimitedlandavailability.

AnidealsolutiontosolvetheMSWproblemwhileprovidingT&TwithanadditionalsourceofREoralternativeenergywouldbetheconversionoftheMSWintoenergy.Afirstfeasibilityanalysisshowsthatamovinggrateincineratorcombinedwithsteamturbinesforelectricitygenerationmightbethe

optimalsolutionforT&T,asitisalongestablishedandwellunderstoodtechnology.

TheMSWinT&Tisdrywastethatdoesnotrequirespecifictechnologiesforpretreatmentandtherearealargenumberofindustrialengineersinthecountrythatcouldeasilybetrainedtooperatethe

incinerator. Under the current estimations, a WtE project is not economically feasible. Further

investigation to develop an appropriate economic model would be necessary and the possibleutilizationofsteamforproductivepurposesshouldbeinvestigated.

Majorexistingobstaclesarethelowpriceforelectricitygeneration,aswellasverylowwastedisposal

fees.Theexistinginformalsectorwouldneedtobeintegrated,asaWtEplantwouldeliminatetheirsourceofincome.However,WtEprojectscannotonlybeassessedontheireconomicfeasibility,butneedtotaketheoverallwastemanagementsituationinacountryintoaccount.

Itisrecommendedtoundertakeacomprehensivewastecharacterizationstudy,aswellasastudyof

thecompositionandstatusofthewasteattheexistinglandfills.Ithasalsotobeanalysed,inhowfaranincineratorplantcouldbebuiltlocallyandhowmuchoftheequipmentwouldneedtobeimported.

Bioenergy

Thepotentialforbioenergysources inT&T is limited.There isalso limitedscopeformanufacturing

capacityinthesegmentofsolidbiomassenergy.Atmaximumoneplantwouldberequired,howeverall components would need to be imported. Large biogas plants face the same problem, as thepotentialforreplicationwouldbeverylimited.Atotaloffourdemonstrationprojectcouldbepossible,

beinglocatedatthelocaldistillery,aswellasthethreeexistinglargepigfarms.

Othertechnologies

Most ocean power technologies are still in their infancy and none of the existing technologies is

perfectlysuitedforapplicationinT&T.Duetomaturityoftechnologyandlocation,onlytidalpower

streamplantsmaypresentasensibleopportunity.OceanThermalEnergyConversion(OTEC)hasgreatpotential and an international or at least a regional approach in the Caribbean should be sought.However,withnolargerprojectsgloballyinexistence,OTECstillneedsasignificantR&Dpushbeforeitcanprovideasizablecontribution.


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2 Introduction

TrinidadandTobago(T&T)isatwinislandstatecoveringanareaof5,128kmwithatotalpopulation

of1.3million,mostlylocatedinTrinidad,thelargerofthetwinisles,with4,820km,andabout95%ofthetotalnumberofinhabitants.

T&T has a long history in the exploitation of fossilenergyresources. Itsoil industry hasone of thelongesthistoricrecordsintheworld,andthecountryhasmorerecentlybecomeasupplierofgasto

itsnationalindustryandpowersector,andisnowalsoamajorexporterofLiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG).

AccordingtoBPs2013StatisticalReview,totalprimaryenergyconsumption(TPEC)inT&Twasabout842trillionBtuin2012.4Naturalgasconsumptionaccountedforapproximately92%andconsumption

ofpetroleumproductswasjustunder8%ofTPEC.Theuseofrenewablefuelswasnegligible.

Due to a highly energyintensive industry, low energetic efficiency in almost all sectors and theexclusiveuseoffossilfuels,T&ThasveryhighCarbonDioxide(CO2)emissionsfromenergyuseinthe

rangeof52millionmetrictonnesperyear(2011).With40tonnesCO2percapitathoseemissionsare

amongthehighestintheworld.

GoRTTisintheprocessofdevelopingaSustainableEnergyProgram(SEP),whichwillmaximizetheuseofitsnaturalresources,anddeveloptheuseofrenewableandsustainableenergy,includingEnergy

Efficiency(EE).

TheProgramwillfocuson:

(i) Developingasustainableenergyframework;

(ii) Institutional strengthening of Government entities for the formulation andimplementation of policies oriented towards Sustainable Energy, supporting the

widespreaduseofAlternativeEnergy;

(iii) Promotingsmallenergybusinesses,whichwillforgelinkswithothersectors,suchas

servicesandmanufacturing.

SpecificprovisionswillbemadetodeterminenationalRenewableEnergy(RE)potentials,encouragerenewableelectricitytechnologies,suchaswind,solar,hydro,biomassandgeothermal,andtosupport

EEandconservationinitiatives.

ToimplementanddeveloptheSustainableEnergyProgram(SEP),GoRTThasreceivedaPolicyBasedLoan(PBL)(TTL1023)fromtheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB).ThisPBLfortheSEPconsistsofthreedifferentoperations,eachwithspecificinstitutionalandpolicygoals.

TheIDBhiredtheconsortiumofCentreofPartnershipsforDevelopment(CAD),ProjektConsult,andLKStosupporttheMinistryofEnergyandEnergyAffairs(MEEA)inthedevelopmentofpoliciesandactivitiesthatwillpromotethedeploymentofREandtheimplementationofEEmeasures.

AsstatedintheTermsofReference,thegeneralobjectiveofthisassignmentisthepromotionofRE

andEEprograms,toensuresustainabledevelopmentinT&T,andtoprovidealternativestominimizethedependencyonfossilfuels.

4 AccordingtoU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationstatisticsitwas930billionbtuin2013(EIA,2013).


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Thisincludesthe:

(i) SupporttothepreparationanddevelopmentoftheprogrammaticPBLfortheSEP;

(ii) ProvisionoftechnicalassistancetoGoRTT,i.e.theCentralGovernmentofTrinidadandTobago,andtheTobagoHouseofAssembly,intheareaofEE;and

(iii) Exploration of options for RE, together with the funding of specific RE pilot projects.ParticularfocuswillbegiventoTobagoinordertopromotesustainableenergyuse.5

2.1 LimitationsoftheReport

Oneofthemajorlimitationsofthisreportistheavailabilityofdata.WhiletheConsultants,aswellasthelocalCADrepresentationandtheMEEAhavemadeeveryefforttoreceiveallthenecessarydatato analyze the situation in T&T in as much detail as possible, a number of challenges have been

encounteredthroughouttheprocess:

1) Existenceofdata:Duetothelowenergycosts,inT&Tanumberofsectorssuchasthetourismsector,donotrecordtheaverageenergyconsumption,asenergyisnotarelevantcostfactor.

2) Accesstodata:

Ithasproventobealongandcomplicatedprocesstoreceivethenecessarydatafromtherelevantorganizations,suchastheTrinidadandTobagoElectricityCommission(T&TEC).TheConsultants,aswellastheMEEA,havetriedtosourcethenecessaryenergydata.Althoughvariousintents,such

aswrittenandformalrequests,directvisitsandfollowupbyphonewereundertaken,itwasnot

possibletoretrieveallexistingdata.

InordertotreatwiththeabovelimitationstheConsultantshavemadeassumptionswhereverpossible.IneachoftheChaptersandAppendixes,themethodfordevelopingandcalculatingtheassumptions

hasbeenexplained.

Forsomeofthedata,ithasnotbeenpossibletodevelopassumptions,asnocomparabledatawereavailable.

5 TermsofReference,SupporttotheSustainableEnergyProgram


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3 BaselineforElectricityGenerationandConsumption

3.1 ObjectiveandScopeoftheBaseline

Thefollowingchapterestablishesabaseline(businessasusual),intermsofelectricitygenerationandconsumption,aswellasassociatedcarbondioxideemissionsinordertodocumenttheeffectivenessofanysignificantfutureREcontributionandEEmeasuresandestablishenergyforecastscenarios.Thebaselinefocusesontheelectricitysectorandincludesthefollowingfactors:

1) Amountofnaturalgasanddieseloil(finaluse)appliedforelectricitygeneration(chapter3.3);

2) Typeandgenerationefficienciesofexistingandfuturepowerplants(chapter3.4);

3) Longerterm development of power generation capacity (fossil fuel baseline without RE),includingreservecapacity(chapter3.5);

4) Pastandprojectedfinalelectricitydemand(residential,industrialetc.,includinginformationabout electricity consumption in public buildings and hotels) and peak loads; prospectivebaseline scenarios without EE measures will be based on adequate and reasonable

assumptions(chapter3.6);

5) PastandfuturedevelopmentofCO2emissionsinthepowersector(chapter3.7);

6) Typicaldailyloadcurves(chapter3.8);

7) TransmissionanddistributiongridandplansforreinforcementorextensioninT&T(chapter3.9);

8) Electricitygenerationcosts,costcoverageandsubsidiesinthepowersector(chapter3.10).

3.2 TheTrinidadandTobagoEnergyMatrix

TheenergysectorisoneofthemostimportantsectorsinT&T.Itamountsto45.3%ofnationalGDP(2011), provides almost 60% of government revenue and is the most important export commoditywith83%ofmerchandiseexports,mainlyrefinedoilproducts,liquefiednaturalgas(LNG),andnatural

gasliquids(IDB,2013).T&TisthemainexporterofoilintheCaribbean,aswellasthemainproducerofLNGinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.

While the following chapter mostly focuses on the baseline for electricity, Figure 1 provides anoverviewoftheprimaryenergymatrixandenergyflowsinT&T.

T&Texportsthemajority(58%)ofitsnaturalgasintheformofLNG.In2012,T&Twasthe6thlargestLNGexporter intheworld(IEA,2012c).Therest isuseddomestically inthepetrochemical industry(28%),theelectricitysector(8%)andother(7%),(IDB2013).

T&Talsoproducesaround80,000barrelsofoilperday(2012).20%oftotalproductionareconsumed

locally,mainlybythetransportsector(IDB,2013)


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Figure1:EnergyFlowTrinidadandTobago6

Finalconsumptionisdominatedbygasandpetroleumextractionindustryandothers(whichincludes

nonenergyconsumptionandtheproductionofderivates,65%),followedbyindustry(25%),transport

(7%)andtheresidentialandcommercialsectorwith3%.7

Figure2:Distributionoffinalconsumptionbysector

6 CR&W=Combustibles,RenewablesandWaste

7 OwnelaborationbasedonEnergyFlowTrinidadandTobago

25%

7%

2%

1%

65%

Industry Transport Residential Commercial Other(derivateproduction)


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T&Twithitshydrocarbonbasedeconomy,whileonlycontributingto0.1%ofglobalCO2emissions,has

oneof thehighest percapita CO2 emissions in theworld. It currently ranks 2ndwithregardstopercapitaemissionsandproducesanestimatedamountof52millionmetrictonsofCO2annually(UNEP,2011;IEA2011).

BasedondatafromtheUniversityofTrinidadandTobago(UTT),thecontributionoftheenergysectorandpetrochemicaloperationstoCO2emissionsisaround80%,andthetransportsectoraccountsfor6%(TrinidadExpress,2013).

WhilethereportfocusesonthepotentialforCO2emissionsreductionsinthepowersector,aswellas

throughenergyefficiencyandtheuseofrenewableenergy,italsoneedstobenotedthattheGoRTTis starting to focus on the use of CNG in the transport sector, as another strategy to reduce CO2emissionsinthecountry.

3.3 NaturalGasandDieselOil(FinalUse)appliedforElectricityGeneration

3.3.1 AnnualDomesticConsumptionofNaturalGasandLNGExport

AsillustratedinFigure3,theannualdomesticconsumptionofnaturalgasinT&Thasrisenbetween

theyears1990and2013, from167 bcf to599 bcf an increase of 359% overthe timeframeof23

years.8

Figure3:NaturalGasUtilisationinT&T1990 2013

Source:MEEA

Theunderlyingreasonsofthisgrowthinnaturalgasconsumptionincludethefollowingfactors:

8 In2010domesticconsumptionpeakedat616bcfandthereafterdecreased.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billionft

Year

LNG

Domestic

consum tion


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Availabilityofnaturalgasfor localmarket:significantincreaseof localextractionofnatural

gasoverthelast22years:from235bcfin1990to1,514bcfin20139 anincreaseof644%.

Thegastooilproductionratioalsoconfirmstheimportanceofnaturalgasforthelocalmarket,

given that it increased from1:1 (energyequivalent) in1998 to5:1 in2007 (GASCO,2011).

Furthermore,the increasedavailabilityof localnaturalgasat leastuntil2010 isalsodueto

investmentsinlocalgasinfrastructure,whichwasinturnfacilitatedbyasignificantincreasein

energyrevenuesdueto,forinstance,oilpriceincreasesintheearly1980s(GASCO,2011).

Priceofnaturalgasforlocalmarket:thepriceismuchlowerthanelsewhere(seeFigure21,

page),which,inturn,hasbeenthemaincontributingfactor(alongwithsuitableinfrastructure

developedbytheGovernment)tothedevelopmentofindustriesthatareintensiveusersof

gas.10T&TEC,forexample,currently(2012)paysUS$1.2538perMMBTUfornaturalgas.This,

however,isnotthemarketpriceforgas,giventhatgasissoldatvaryingpricestodifferent

domesticcompaniesandforeignbuyersbasedonanumberofcriteria(T&TEC,2013).

Increase

in

industrial

natural

gas

consumer

base:connection

of

local

manufacturing

businesses

(includingsmallones)tothenaturalgasgrid(GASCO,2011).Inthiscontext,FIGURE4provides

anoverviewofthedifferenttypesofnaturalgasconsumers:

Figure4:OverviewofNaturalGasConsumersinT&T,includingLNGexport,2012

Owngraph;Source:MEEA,2012b

IncreaseinGDPandindustrialactivity:T&T'sGDPpercapitahasincreasedby400%between

1990 (4,170currentUS$)and2011 (16,699currentUS$) (WB,2013);atthesametimethe

valueaddedofthe industryhasincreasedfrom47%ofGDP in1990to60%ofGDPin2011

(WB,2013).

Increase inelectricityproductionfromnaturalgas:Thegrosselectricitygeneration (in turn

almost exclusively from natural gas, with electricity from oil or REbased electricity being

9 Productionhaspeakedin2010at1580bcf.

10 With11ammoniaplantsandsevenmethanolplants,T&Tistheworldslargestexporterofammoniaandthesecondlargestexporter

ofmethanol,accordingtoIHSGlobalInsight.

8,0%

15,0%

13,6%

2,0%2,9%

0,2%

0,6%

0,8%

0,3%

56,6%

PowerGeneration

AmmoniaProduction

MethanolProduction

Refinery

Iron&Steel

CementProduction

AmmoniaDerivates

GasProcessing

SmallConsumers

LNG


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negligible,i.e.accountingforlessthan1%)hasgoneupfrom3.6TWhin1990,to8.5TWhin

2010 anincreaseof137%over20years(IEA,2012a).

Asfortheshareofnaturalgasusedtogenerateelectricity,thisfigurehasdecreasedfrom13.6%in2000(MEEA,2011a)to8.0%in2012and7.9%in2013.ThemainreasonforthisdevelopmentistheincreasedimportanceofLNGexports(whichhavegoneupfrom31.7%ofthetotaluseofnaturalgas

in2000,toalmost57%in201211).T&ThasbeentheworldssixthlargestLNGexporterin2012.

3.3.2 AnnualConsumptionofOil

Betweentheyear1990and2011,andasillustratedinFigure5below,theannualconsumptionofoilinT&Thasincreasedfrom20,400barrelsperday(bpd)to50,000bpd12 anincreaseof145%overaperiodof22years.AsfortheproductiondatainFigure5,thiscoverstotaloilproduction,which aspertherelevantIEAdefinition includes"productionofcrudeoil includingleasecondensate,natural

gasplant

liquids

and

other

liquids

and

refinery

processing

gain

(loss)". Oil production peaked at179,000 bpd in 2006, however it has declined yearoveryear since 2008. The declines have been

attributed to maturing oilfields and operational challenges. According to (EIA, 2013), total oilproductionhasfallento119,315bpdin2012,whileconsumptionstoodat43,686bpd.

Figure5:TotalOilProductionandConsumptioninT&T,2000 2011

Owngraph;Source:MEEA,2014

Inthiscontext,FIGURE9alsoshowscrudeoilproduction,whichhasbeenbelow100,000barrelsper

day since 2010. In 2012, the production had fallen to 81,735 barrels per day (EIA, 2013; MEEA,

11 57.4%in2013

12 AccordingtoEIA,2013,itwasonlyabout40,000bpdin2011.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Thousandbarrels/day

Year

TotalOilProduction&Consumption

inTrinidad&Tobago,19902011

Production

Consumption


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ConsolidatedMonthlyBulletin2012);in2013,thedailyaveragewas81,157bpd(MEEA,Consolidated

MonthlyBulletin2013).T&Thad728millionbarrelsofprovencrudeoilreservesasofJanuary2013

(EIA,2013).

Theunderlying

reasons

of

the

growth

in

oil

consumption

include

the

following

factors:

Increase inGDPand industrialactivity:asalreadymentioned intheprevioussection,T&T's

GDPpercapitahasincreasedby400%between1990(4,170currentUS$)and2011(16,699

currentUS$);atthesametimethevalueaddedoftheindustryhasincreasedfrom47%ofGDP

in1990to60%ofGDPin2011(WB,2013).

IncreaseinenergyintensityperunitofGDP:asalreadymentionedintheprevioussection,the

totalprimaryenergyintensityinT&Thasrisenby38.2%between1990(16,663Btuper2005

US$)and2012(25,496Btuper2005US$)(EIA,2013).

Growth

of

high

oil

consumption

industry

sectors:two

relevant

factors

in

this

context

are:

i)

growthofindustrialsectorsasapercentageofGDP,whichhasincreasedfrom47%in1990to

60%in2011(WB,2013)withmanufacturingbeingtheonlyeconomicsector,thatdespitethe

global financialcrisis,hasatnopointsince2007experiencednegativegrowthrates (CBTT,

2012); and ii) increase in consumption and conversion (refinery) of the locally extracted

petroleum: increase inoilandnaturalgasrefiningbyalmost500%between1995and2009

(CSO,2013).

Figure6:CrudeOilProductioninT&T,1990 2013

Owngraph,Source:MEEA,2014

Increaseinresidentialoilconsumption:asaresultofthe10.7%populationgrowthinT&Tover

thelast22years,thetransportationsectorisconsideredtohavegrownaccordingly,aswell.

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

OIL PRODUCTION (BOPD)


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Thepercentageofthetotalconsumptionofdieseloilusedtogenerateelectricityisnegligible,given

that in the past diesel has only been utilized for electricity generation for the two power plants in

Tobago, with a combined installed capacity of 86 MW, accounting for 3.5% of the total powergeneration capacity, and for the startup phase of gas powered plants. Diesel oil use thereforeaccounted for less than 1% of the primary fuel used for electricity generation in T&T (as of 2012).Furthermore, the Cove diesel/gas power plant in Tobago switched to operate on natural gas inNovember2013.Duetothoserecentchanges,thisreportapproximatesdieselgenerationtozero.

3.3.3 ProjectionsofNaturalGasforElectricityGeneration

Intermsofprojectingtheelectricitygenerationintothefuture,andtherefore,theamountofnaturalgastobeusedforit,thefollowingfactorsneedtobetakenintoaccount:

a) Factors determining the demand for electricity, i.e. projected development of electricity

demand in the commercial and industrial sector, development of Gross Domestic Product

(GDP)andtheresidentialsector(developmentofpopulationsizeandhouseholds);

b) Projectedpowergenerationmix,i.e.typesofplants,fueltypesandthermalefficiencies;

c) Availabilityoftheunderlyingprimaryfuel,i.e.naturalgasreserves.

3.3.3.1 ElectricityDemand

Factorsdeterminingthedemandforelectricityarethefollowing:

Projected

GDP

growth:theInternationalMonetaryFunds(IMF's)mostrecentprojectionsforthedevelopmentoftheGDPinT&Tarepositive withrealGDPgrowthratesprojectedtobearound+2.2%in2013,and+3.0%in2017(IMF,2012b).

Increaseofresidentialenergyconsumerbase:T&Tspopulationhasgrown10.8%overthelast

22years,i.e.from1.21millionin1990to1.35millionin2011(WB,2013);ThecrudebirthrateforT&Thasbeenrelativelyconstantforalmosttwodecades(since1995:between1416per

1,000 asper WB, 2013),and there are nonegative indicators in terms of apotential lower

immigrationorhigheremigrationrate.However,UNDESA,aswellasUNDPPopulationFigures

expect a stabilization in population by around 2025, at approximately 1.4 Million people.

Anotherfactortobetakenintoaccountinthiscontextisthatthenumberofhouseholdsmayincreaseatahigherrateduetothetendencyforlessoccupancyperhousehold.

Increaseofnonresidentialenergyconsumerbase:accordingtotheforecastbyT&TEC(2011),

thenumberofnonresidentialelectricitycustomersuntil2016isexpectedtoincreaseinevery

UltraLowSulphurDieselUnit(ULSD)AspartoftheSEP,theGoRTTisimplementingaULSD.InJuly2013,theconstructionprogressoftheULSDprojectwasnegativelyaffectedbyfinancialconstraintsandpoorplanningand outofsequencework,whichledtosignificantamountofrework.Nevertheless,asatJuly2013,totalEPCprojectprogresswas96.6%, whileengineeringwas 98.9%,andconstructionwas 96.7% complete. Thenew ULSDPlantwill

enablePetrotrintomeetstringentnewdieselqualityspecifications(sulphurandaromatics)inthelocal,regionalandinternationalmarketandispartofPetrotrinscleanenergyprogram.TheULSDisdesigned

toprocess40,000BPSD(barrelsperstreamday)ofdieselboilingrangefeedstockstoproduceadieselproductthatwillreduce: sulphurcontentfrom>1000ppmto8ppm;aromaticsfrom>45%to


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rateclasswiththeexceptionofmostofthelargeandverylargeindustrycustomers(whose

numberisexpectedtoremainstable) asillustratedinTABLE1.

Table1:CustomerForecastbyRateCategory13

Owntable;Source:T&TEC,2010

Increaseinelectricityconsumptionacrossmostratecategories:accordingtoforecastinT&TEC(2011),theelectricityconsumptionisexpectedtoincreaseinmostratecategoriesuntil2016

asillustratedinTABLE2.

Table2:ElectricitySalestoEachRateCategory14

Owntable;Source:T&TEC,2010

InlinewithT&T'saverageelectricityoutputgrowthbetween1990and2010(IEA,2012a),itisassumedthatT&T'sannualpowergenerationoutputwillkeepincreasingatasimilarrateuntil2020,i.e.around4.4% per annum. As a result, gross output is expected to increase to nearly 13.0 TWh in 2020

equivalenttoaround10,000kWhpercapita.Thispercapitavalue,inturn,isfarhigherthaninmanyindustrializedcountries15.Anincreaseinenduseefficiencyof10%,forinstance,wouldalreadyhaveasignificantimpact.

3.3.3.2

ProjectedPowerGenerationMix

Intermsofprojectedpowergenerationmix,i.e.typesofplants,fueltypesandthermalefficiencies,

thefollowingfactorsneedtobeconsidered:

13 ForratecategorydescriptionseeTable5.At30thApril2013,T&TECha

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