Support for RPP2 Housing Futures Review & Proposals R Emmanuel, K Baker, M PhillipsonGCU Feb 01, 2012

Support for RPP2 Housing Futures

Review & Proposals

R Emmanuel, K Baker, M Phillipson GCU Feb 01, 2012

Outline Background issues Review of RPP1 (devolved/non-devolved) General concerns Approaches for future (2022-2030 & beyond)

Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures 2

Background

Energy use in homes, housing stock

Key UK-wide trends Average household energy use has also fallen in real

terms from 22,235 to 18,639 kWh from 1970 to 2009, with the levelling off observed since 1995 Improvements in the Building Regulations, leading to a

consistent increase in SAP ratings Promotion and uptake of common energy efficiency

measures The changing climate – warmer winters Increase in occupants' expectations of thermal comfort, Rapid and sustained rise in energy demand for appliances

and consumer technology

4Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures

Key UK-wide trends . . . Other trends

Decline in energy use for water heating and cooking, related to the switch to gas

Ageing population Ageing housing stock and levels of maintenance Rapid increase in the number of employees working from

home Changes in the tenure mix – recent growth in the (less

energy efficient) privately-rented sector is a particular problem


Scottish Housing Stock

6

Age of dwelling

Fraction of national total

Type of dwelling (tonnes/yr) Emission by Age of dwelling (tonnes/yr)

Detached Semi-detached

Terra-ced

Tene-ment

Other flats

Pre-1919 19% 17.5 11.2 9.5 5.2 8.8 9.91919 – 1944

14% 15.7 8.1 6.1 4.2 4.4 7.0

1945 – 1964

22% 12.4 6.7 5.3 3.9 4.3 5.7

1965 – 1982

23% 9.2 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.9 5.9

Post-1982 22% 7.5 4.5 4.0 3.3 3.1 5.2ALL 100% 11.0 7.0 5.6 4.2 4.8 6.6

Mean CO2 emissions (tonnes /yr) in dwellings in ScotlandSource: SHCS, 2011

Baker et al., 2011 RPP2: Housing Futures

Type Application ResponsibilityFabric Grid de-

carbonisationNew build Existing Devolved Non-

devolvedPolicies

Smart meter X XCERT X X XCESP X X XEAP X X XHIS / UHIS X X XEnergy Stds. 2007/2010 X X X X XRHI X X

ProposalsFuel poverty & insulation X X XDomestic energy std 2013 X X X XRegulations en. efficiency X X XESSAC X X X XLocal Housing Strategies X X X XLESA X X XEPBD X X X XTolerable Std. X X XReduce emission from Social Housing

X X X

Loans to landlords X X XHSCCC X X XCCF X XGreen Deal X X X XECO X X X

RPP1 landscape


Review of RPP1

Devolved Issues

Insulation without compromising IAQ/Ventilation provision Thermal comfort improvement in under-heated housing

could have a positive health impact, particularly amongst elderly occupants

Reduction in dampness problems or resultant mould issues could benefit in terms of reduced risk of respiratory problems

Quality & performance of existing housing


‘The best UK exemplar in terms of providing both a comprehensive approach ... and to linking the fourth level of assistance to the energy inefficiency of the home.’ (Boardman, 2010)

In its first year the EAP along with HIS achieved the installation of 11,502 new heating systems and 26,110 measures, at a cost of £65.9 million

Effectiveness heavily dependent on retaining the engagement of households from stage to stage

EAP/HIS/UHIS


Main problems . . . Supply not being able to meet demand, particularly in rural

areas Contradiction between driving energy efficiency and reducing

fuel poverty Accessing of CERT for part of the funding (for EAP/HIS) may be

risky in the long term However, given the popularity and demand, expanding

these make sense

EAP/HIS/UHIS


Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2007-2013 Problems particular to housing in exposed locations

Addressing the urban / rural divide Problems particular to tenure

Triggering energy efficient renovation Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2013-2022

Is net zero carbon by 2016/17 still valid?

Other devolved issues


Review of RPP1

Non-devolved Issues

EPBD and EPCs CERT and CESP FiTs Green Deal / ECO

Key issues


Consultation on EPBD recast now closed No evidence that EPCs are driving up demand for energy

efficient buildings (or higher rentals) Needs awareness-raising and education - current proposals will

aid this Emphasis on giving consumers the best information, in

the best format, at the best time

EPBD and EPCs


CERT Issue of bias towards energy efficiency over microgen Support recommendations in RPP1 sections 4.56 to 4.58

CESP Problems with complexity Take up rate disproportionately low in Scotland (and London) Appears less successful with the fuel poor

Much useful evidence for informing future work Future initiatives should have wider scopes of measures

and maximise delivering packages of intervention measures

CERT and CESP


Have led to 100% growth in capacity in Scotland, but 360% in England and Wales

Marked difference in measures installed Scotland: wind and hydro; E&W: solar Reflects greater take up in rural areas

Need to increase take up in urban and fuel poor areas Problem of signals from Westminster to the industry and

investors

FiTs


Response to proposals given in the full report Causes for concern:

For households not connected to the gas grid there will be "no additional incentive" for heat pumps or low carbon heat over more traditional approaches (p. 74)

The proposals "do not intend to take account of “active comfort taking” in the savings estimates as the assessment is based on the physical performance of the building“ (p. 82)

"We do not propose to guarantee that the charge will be fully offset by the savings. This would be extremely difficult to either implement or enforce. However, there is nothing to stop organisations going further and guaranteeing that their measures will save customers money" (p. 106)

Support for energy efficiency, renewables and tackling fuel poverty should not be allowed to fall following the retirement of CERT

Any schemes should not ultimately lead to higher bills for the poor

Green Deal and ECO


General concerns

Cost vs. CO2 savings

20

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,0000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

470

533

33

933

1964-82 CWH - Loft insl

1048

484

1577

626

2848

1982 TFH - 100% LEL

666

3758

Installation Cost (£)

CO

2 S

avin

gs (

kg/y

ear)

Note: SF – Solid Wall Flat; CWH – Cavity Wall House; TFH – Timber Frame House

WA GSHP – Warm Air Ground Source Heat Pump; Combined = insulation + lighting + boiler replacement + GSHP


Micro/distributed generation

21

Supply Limits in Scotland

Installed micro- and distributed-generation in Scotland

Technology Number Peak Capacity1 (kW)

Energy (MWh/yr) Date of Source2

Solar PV 95 414 352 Aug 2008Micro-CHP 16-81 561 - Dec 2006Wind 410 771 676 Dec 2007Micro-Hydro 21 262 1,148 Aug 2008Solar Thermal 10,700-11,100 22,400-23,400 14,400-15,000 Jul 2008Biomass 196 3,920 3,360 Aug 2008GSHP 1,057 6,871 18,091 Aug 2008ASHP 96 416 1,643 Aug 2008

2007 shares in generation

Supply limits in 2020

Maximum MinimumWave 0 0 10.5Tidal - 0 5Onshore wind 5.5 5 35Offshore wind 0 2 15Nuclear 25.6 0 20CCGT 26.2 0 25Pulverised fuel 28.7 0 35Hydroelectric 12.2 0 15Biomass 1.8 0 5Pulverised fuel with CCS - 0 35CCGT with CCS - 0 25


Source: Element Energy, 2008

Source: Allan et al., 2011

Renewables and distributed generation

22

Fundamental need for new infrastructure New developments New build Retrofitted Networks for microgeneration Networks for renewable heat Low voltage networks In the long term – the Supergrid

Ownership Technological mix How to bridge the demand gap?


Others

23

Modelled performance vs. Post Occupancy Evaluation Actual insulation performance is often less than expected

(poor workmanship, unrealistic assumptions about stock . . .) Occupant behaviour (‘take back’) Model limitations

Behaviour change, adaptation and community empowerment Smart meters Energy efficiency advice services Using ‘what works’ in behaviour change Engaging communities Funding, monitoring and evaluating


Approaches for the future

2022-2030 & beyond

Our recommendations

25

Accelerate the fabric improvement programmes, especially covering Hard-to-Treat (HtT)

Decarbonise the grid at community scale Use smart meters for better energy management Enable better understanding of and support for changing

attitudes and behaviour, and better adaptation to change


Not all buildings are suitable for cavity wall insulation Those without cavity wall Conventional cavity wall with high exposure Consequence of cavity fill due to concerns re. cavity

Internal insulation Need to consider electrical sockets / service penetrations Interstitial condensation risk Reduction in internal space dimensions

Rendered external wall insulation and insulated over-cladding Generally more expensive option

HtT Properties


HtT Properties . . .

27

Insulate and ventilate correctly External insulation

Changing the appearance of properties (positive for urban regeneration)

Covering over existing thermal bridges Improving the weather tightness of buildings

Backcourt insulation Stairwell insulation Concentrate on ‘fuel hungry’ households


Decarbonise the grid

28

Renewable heat is as much a priority as renewable electricity

Community scale solutions are cost and carbon effective To sell micro-generation, sell efficiency first

Tighter regulations Changes to planning system

Heat mapping / exemplar DH solutions / pilot schemes Longer term – significant potential for anaerobic digestion


Decarbonise the grid: barriers

29

CERT Buy Back

RO LCBP FIT 2016 Zero Carbon Target

CSH Plan

EconomicInvestment riska X X XCost—capital and operationalb

X X X

Long pay-back periodc XLack of value to stakeholdersd X X X X X X X XLack of customer demand green energy/DRES

X

OrganisationIndustrial inertia(house-building and energy industries)e

X X X

Lack of ESCOs X X XAccess to gridInformationLack of accreditation system for products and service providers

X

Knowledge transfer


Source: Williams, 2010.

Prioritisation of research and development of intelligent energy management systems ('smart' smart meters) to best facilitate their integration into both the built environment and human lifestyles

Capitalising on the cumulative benefits of smart meter technologies that have uses beyond energy saving Remote control of building services and appliances Bridging gaps between the physical and social sciences to solve

problems relating to human factors Addressing public concerns over the collection and use of

energy data

Smart meters for effective energy mgmt.


Behaviour & attitudinal change priorities

31

Adaptive behaviours favour greater thermal comfort over lower energy use

Greater control over indoor environments should result in more optimal energy use, which aids energy efficiency

Adopting more energy efficient behaviours will reduce household energy consumption But these behaviours are complex, and are the products of

underlying attitudes and behaviours Understand ‘what works’ and use a bigger toolbox

Communities have key roles Normalising (and delivering?) behaviour / lifestyle change


References:

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Allan G, Eromenko I, McGregor P, Swales K. 2011. The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies, Energy Policy, 39, pp. 6–22

Baker K, Emmanuel R, Phillipson M. 2011. Final Report: Support for RPP2 Housing Futures. CXC1109-01. Report submitted to Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) (on behalf of ClimateXChange). Available at: www.climatexchange.org.uk

Element Energy, 2008. Numbers of Microgeneration Units Installed in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Report to BERR. Available at: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49151.pdf

SHCS 2011. Scottish House Condition Survey: Key Findings 2010. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/23172215/0

Williams J. 2010. The deployment of decentralised energy systems as part of the housing growth programme in the UK, Energy Policy, 38, pp. 7604–7613


http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49151.pdf

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/23172215/0

Documents

Support for RPP2 Housing Futures Review & Proposals R Emmanuel, K Baker, M PhillipsonGCU Feb 01, 2012