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A Presentation by Mr. Dimitris MezartasoglouHead of Research, IENE
INSTITUTE OF ENERGY
FOR SOUTH EAST EUROPE
Supply Prospects and Market Realitiesin Advancing Gas Use in SE Europe
19th International Energy ConferenceSwissotel The Bosphorus Istanbul
September 21, 2018
European Gas Demand and Production Gap
2
Source: Gazprom Export
Natural Gas Imports to EU
3
Source: McKinsey Energy Insights
4Source: DEPA
European Gas Network: SEE EU Needs Additional Import Routes
NB.: The TANAP and TAP gas pipelines as well as Turkish Stream are under construction, with IGB at an advanced planning stage with FID already taken. The IAP, theIGI Poseidon in connection with East Med pipeline and the Vertical Corridor and the IGF are still in the study phase. Blue Stream and Trans Balkan are existingpipelines.
An Expanded South Gas Corridor
Source: IENE (February 2018)
The TANAP-TAP System (Under Construction)
Source: TAP AG
TAP
Length 878 km
Diameter 48-inch (1,200 mm) pipes
Capacity 10-20 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2020
TANAP
Length 1,850 km
Diameter 48-or-56-inch (1,200 or
1,400 mm) pipes
Capacity up to 31 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2019
6
Turkish Stream (Under Construction)
Source: Gazprom
Turkish Stream
Length 1,100 km
Diameter
Outer diameter of 32 inches (812.8 mm) and
will be installed in water depths up to 7,220 ft
(2,200 m).
CapacityTwo stretches: Each stretch will have a
capacity of 15.75 bcm/y.
Anticipated Operational Date
2020
7
East Med and Interconnector Greece-Italy (IGI) Poseidon (Conceptual Stage)
Source: DEPA
East Med
Length1,300 km (offshore)600 km (onshore)
Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) and 48-
inch (1,200 mm) pipes
Capacity up to 15 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2025
IGI
Length 216 km
Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) pipes
Capacity 14-20 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2020
8
Main Recent Gas Discoveries in Offshore Eastern Mediterranean – Gross Mean Resources (bcm)
Sources: European Parliament, Financial Times
9
Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) (Implementation Stage)
Source: ICGB AD
IGB
Length 182 km
Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) pipes
Capacity 3-5 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2020
10
Ionian Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) (Conceptual Stage)
Source: Independent Balkan News Agency
IAP
Length 540 km
Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) pipes
Capacity up to 5 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2023
11
Vertical Corridor and BRUA (Conceptual Stage)
Source: IENE
Source: European Commission
BRUA
Length 843 km
Diameter 32-inch (813 mm) pipes
Capacity
5 bcm/y transport capacity towards Bulgaria
and 4.4 bcm/y towards Hungary
Anticipated Operational Date
2023
Interconnector Greece-FYROM (IGF) (Conceptual Stage)
Sources: ENTSO-G map and ECA recommendations
IGF
Length 115 km
Capacity 1.5 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2020
13
South Kavala Underground Gas Storage (Conceptual Stage)
Source: ENTSO-G
South Kavala UGS
Storage Facility Type Aquifer
Capacity 0.36 bcm/y
Anticipated Operational Date
2022
14
Current Expansion of Revithoussa LNG Terminal (2nd Upgrade)
Source: DESFA
Expansion of Revithoussa LNG
Capacity
Storage capacity: 225.000 m3 (currently, 130.000 m3)Max Ship size: 260.000 m3
(currently, 140.000 m3) with the addition of a 3rd
tank
Anticipated Operational Date
2018
15
Existing Land-based and FSRU Terminals in SE Europe
Source: IENE
Country Terminal Start StorageRegasification
capacity/yearOwners Concept
Greece Revithoussa 2000130,000
m3 LNG5.0 billion m3 DESFA (100%) Onshore
Turkey
Aliaga LNG 2006280,000
m3 LNG6.0 billion m3 Egegaz (100%) Onshore
Marmara
Ereglisi1994
255,000
m3 LNG8.1 billion m3 Botas (100%) Onshore
ETKI LNG 2017145,000
m3 LNG7.1 billion m3
Etki Liman Isletmeleri
Dolgalgaz Ithalat ve
Ticaret (100%)
FSRU
Botas-
Dörtyol2017
131,000
m3 LNG5.3 billion m3 Botas (100%) FSRU
16
Selected Planned FSRU Terminals in SE Europe
Source: IENE
Country LocationStorage capacity
(cm)
Annual capacity
(bcm)Technology
Croatia Krk island 2x180,000 4-6 FSRU
Greece Alexandroupolis 170,000 5.5-8.3 FSRU
Turkey Gulf of Saros 125,000-263,000 9-10 FSRU
17
The Alexandroupolis FSRU Project
Source: IENE study, “Gas Supply in SE Europe and the Key Role of LNG”, (M46), Athens, December 2017
Anticipated Gas Volumes Through Greece(2020-2030)
19
Anticipated Gas Consumption (bcm) in Selected European Countries (2020, 2025 and 2030)
Source: European Commission
Country 2020 2025 2030
Austria 7,5 7,3 7,1
Bulgaria 4,0 4,2 4,3
Greece 5,0 5,2 5,41
Croatia 3,7 3,8 3,9
Hungary 11,0 10,5 10,0
Italy 71,3 79,2 83,8
FYROM 0,1 0,1 0,13
Romania 13,0 13,5 13,5
Slovenia 1,2 1,2 1,3
Slovakia 7,0 7,2 7,3
Serbia 2,2 2,25 2,3
Turkey 60,0 65,0 70,0
Ukraine 35,8 36,0 36,5
Total gas consumption 221,8 235,45 245,54
20
Turkmenistan’s Gas Supplies to Europe via Turkey Now More Likely
Source: Interfax Global Energy
21
European Gas Hubs and Exchanges
22
Today, there is not a single gas trading hub east and south east of Vienna whose CEGHcould act as a pivot for organizing gas trading in this region.
Source: Interfax Global Energy
Gas Hubs in Greece and Turkey Can Coexist
Source: IENE study, “The Outlook For a Natural Gas Trading Hub in SE Europe”, (M19), Athens, September 2014
Proposed Road Map for the Development of a Natural Gas Hub Based in Greece
24Source: DESFA
The Creation of a Natural Gas Hub Based in Turkey
After the successful completion of a five-month testing phase, starting on April 1, thespot gas trading system in Turkey officially went online.
On July 27, EPİAŞ began to publish gas transmission data through its online transparencyplatform. It also started to share transport nomination, virtual trade, capacity, reserve,actualization and stock amounts, on a daily basis.
EPİAŞ launched its spot gas trading system on the energy stock exchange in earlySeptember 2018.
Source: EPİAŞ
25