Supertrends

MIS 524 1

Supertrends

MIS 524 2

Agenda

• IT Management In Context• Supertrends

Richness vs. Reach Age of Access Death of Distance Summing It up

MIS 524 3

IT Management in Context

A survey of trends and issues that affect how you manage, why you

manage and who cares

MIS 524 4

Topics• Your Context• How You Manage• What You Need to Prepare Yourself with• How Technology helps and hinders.

MIS 524 5

How YouManage

SocietalInfluences

and Trends

PersonalInfluences

and Trends

TechnicalInfluences

and Trends

Effects ofThe Way

You Manage

MIS 524 6

How YouManage

The tools you useThe techniques you employThe attitudes you adoptThe skills you developThe knowledge you acquire

MIS 524 7

SocietalInfluences

and Trends

Social Roles of IndividualsEconomic SituationPolitical InstitutionsDemographicsKnowledge ProductionPopular Culture

=

MIS 524 8

PersonalInfluences

and Trends

Your skill profileYour demographic profileYour relationship to your jobYour goals in life and jobHow you weather CHANGE

=

MIS 524 9

TechnicalInfluences

and Trends

Information TechnologyCommunication TechnologyWork EnvironmentTechnology in GeneralKnowledge level of Society

=

MIS 524 10

Effects ofThe Way

You Manage

What your employees doWhat your company doesWhat future expectations areWhat you get from your jobWhom you interact withWhere you work and how

=

MIS 524 11

How YouManage

Effects ofThe Way

You Manage

Technicaltrends that cut

across boundaries

E-commerceIntranets

ERPProcess

ReengineeringOutsourcing

Communications

MIS 524 12

How YouManage

Effects ofThe Way

You Manage

Socio-Economic and

Culturaltrends that cut

across boundaries

TransformationPrivatizationWorkplacelegislation

GlobalizationUrbanization

MIS 524 13

Supertrends to Watch For

Richness breaking free of ReachAccess overcoming Ownership

&The Death of Distance

MIS 524 14

Content, space, use, and time are being confounded

• Modern ICTs work in many ways to confuse things that used to be certain: The content-space connection seemingly has

been broken The space-use connection has definitely been

broken In addition, a third trend is happening: the use-

time connection is being eroded Also, the time-meaning/value connection is

challenged.

MIS 524 15

The Good Ole Days

In the past, these were certain:There was a fixed relationship between content and

where it could be distributed;There was a fixed relationship between a physical object

and where it could be used;There was a fixed relationship between use and when

use could take placeThere was a fixed relationship between when something

could be used and what its use meant.Thus: content meant something, and little else.

MIS 524 16

Breaking These Bonds

• Now, content, space, use, time and meaning are all independent. Any content can be distributed anywhere Any content can be used by anyone Any content can be used any time Any content can be used in any way, for any

reason. How does this anarchy affect YOU?

MIS 524 17

Overcoming Space

In the past, the amount of content has been limited by our geographical ability to distribute it. This is called the RICHNESS-REACH connection.

This has now been broken.Almost limitless richness is available to distribute

to everyone on earth (potentially, soon)

MIS 524 18

The Richness-Reach Tradeoff-1

Reach: Distribution RangeRic

hnes

s: V

arie

ty a

nd D

epth

of C

onte

nt

In the past, the cost of

communication limited the amount of

information we could distribute

over a given territory

Today, via inter-, intra- and extranets, we can distribute almost limitless variety and amounts of information over a given range, even worldwide.

MIS 524 19



hnes

s: V

arie

ty a

nd D

epth

of C

onte

nt

Each distribution

channel has its own

characteristic Richness-

Reach tradeoff curve

Attempting to increase

distribution range incurs costs, which

lower the available richness.

MIS 524 20



hnes

s: V

arie

ty a

nd D

epth

of C

onte

nt

Attempting to increase

richness incurs costs, which

lower the available

distribution reach

MIS 524 21



hnes

s: V

arie

ty a

nd D

epth

of C

onte

nt

The new media BREAK the relationship between richness and

reach. No reasonable move to increase richness or reach will have any real cost

and hence no effect on the other characteristic.

MIS 524 22

Overcoming Use

In the past, use of an item was restricted to owners, who only made use of things part of the time. This is called the USE-OWNERSHIP connection.

Now the strict relationship between use and ownership has been broken everywhere replacing ownership with “access”

Now everyone owns a piece of time of an object.

MIS 524 23

Forms of Access-Ownership

• Leases• Franchises• Time-shares• Licenses• Membership• Sectional Title

Bill

Me

Tom, Harry

Time

Acc

ess

Me

MIS 524 24

The Age of Access-1

Jeremy Rifkin’s new book The Age of Access examines what is happening to capitalism as it shifts its essential emphasis from (private) property and the working of assets to produce gain to access and the working of intellectual resources for gain. He discusses three major ideas: Networks are supplanting markets, ownership is giving way to access, and ownership is giving way to use. The implications are enormous and it seems all to depend on information (systems) phenomena

PROPERTY ACCESS

MIS 524 25

The Age of Access-2

First, there is the replacement of markets (which replace hierarchies and their peculiar structural implications) with networks. In networks, there is no “moment of exchange”; rather people “stay in touch”. Instant organisations (Rifkin terms this the “Hollywood Organizational Model”) is changing the notion of “organization” perhaps irrevocably.

MARKETS NETWORKS

MIS 524 26

The Age of Access-3

Next, organizations are divesting themselves of assets and becoming “weightless” meaning they are not burdened with the effort of owning things. Real estate, assets, money, and savings are not necessary as all can be borrowed. A primary example is the trend towards franchising. A franchisee doesn’t actually own anything and may have no real freedom in how the things apparently controlled are used. The major “asset” in a franchise is a brand

OWNERSHIP BORROWING

MIS 524 27

The Age of Access-4

It is the intangible assets that are adding value; intellectual property is replacing property itself. Ideas are becoming commodities. Even culture is becoming commoditized and sold (eg, tourism). The culture business is the biggest business on earth. There are numerous implications to this in the legal, social and economic arenas.

OWNERSHIP BORROWING

MIS 524 28

The Age of Access-5

Finally, goods are giving way to services; there will be, he says, no more sales, only service. There is ample evidence of this through licensing, giving away of software or items to be replaced for income purposes with after sales services. No longer do people buy things, they are buying the services that go along with things.

GOODS SERVICES

MIS 524 29

The Age of Access -6

Rifkin doesn’t specifically point to explanations of these phenomena, but does interrelate them (theory). However, it is clear that information (about products, processes, people and environments), networking, and increased computer usage drives much of what is happening. These phenomena at least make Rifkin’s ideas plausible. Other possible explanations include demographics, shift from wartime to peacetime economies, and the “death” of communism.Info

Networking

Computer Usage

The AgeOf Access

MIS 524 30


Weightless economy, society

Relationships based on connections

Information-enabled relationships

People don’t own anything, including information about themselves

People participate in fleeting relationships through computer-mediated connections including businesses, families, etc.

Information ABOUT objects motivates services, franchising, leasing rather than ownership.

MIS 524 31


It’s interesting to see that the supposed “causes” can also be thought of as “effects”. Technology doesn’t exist independently of forces in society, or does it? A theory of this sort requires rather wide data. Another question is the level of aggregation concerned: firm, industry, society, world? Rifkin’s ideas are about capitalism rather than a geographical entity and changes in such a complex mode of behavior do not take place all at once. Is this a stable phenomenon he is talking about? How is it changing the way you manage or interact with employees or your employer or clients?

MIS 524 32

Age of Access:Summary

Changes in Capitalism

Ownership

Access

Products

Services

Ideas

Commodities

Markets

Networks

MIS 524 33

Overcoming Space-2

In the past, our ability to interact was limited by our physical and geographical “strength”: speed, power, size.

This relationship now been broken.Almost limitless reach is available to interact with

almost everyone on earth

MIS 524 34

Death of DistanceEffects of Distance

1. Error / Slowness2. Need for Coordination3. Reach/Richness Tradeoff4. Localization5. Fixed Community6. Fixed Roles7. Mass Production8. Size9. Fixed Asset Investment10. Fixed markets

Distance puts a premium on precise communication,

coordination, and rules in order to combat noise, delays

and error.

Rules and roles grow naturally out of an attempt to bring order to an expensive and

threatening process.

Conventions -- a sort of least common denominator -- arise

to favor bigness and dedicated assets

MIS 524 35

Death of Distance

What if Distance is no longer a concern, no

longer dictates criteria for communication, but

instead represents “reach”, an asset rather

than a liability?

Effects of Death of Distance1. Frictionless Markets2. “Democratic” Connections3. Information Overload4. Globalization5. Community of Practice6. More Mobility of Role7. Mass customization8. Irrelevance of Size9. Investment in Intellectual Assets10. Instant Niches

Effects of Distance1. Error / Slowness2. Need for Coordination3. Reach/Richness Tradeoff4. Localization5. Fixed Community6. Fixed Roles7. Mass Production8. Size9. Fixed Asset Investment10. Fixed markets

MIS 524 36

Death of DistanceEffects of Death of Distance

1. Frictionless Markets2. “Democratic” Connections3. Information Overload4. Globalization5. Community of Practice6. More Mobility of Role7. Mass customization8. Irrelevance of Size9. Investment in Intellectual Assets10. Instant Niches

?

MIS 524 37

The New Cosmology

Content

Space

Use

Time

BusinessAnd

Management

ICTValue

MIS 524 38

Question: How Does This Affect You?

• Your Job• Your Employees• Your Clients• Your Profession• Yourself

Easier…………..………..Harder

More Fun………..…….Less Fun

Longer term…….…Shorter Term

More important….Less important

More demanding.Less demanding

Nicer……………………..Nastier

MIS 524 39

Sources

• Rifkin, Jeremy. The Age of Access, 2000• Wurster, Philip, and Thomas Evans. Blown

to Bits. Harvard University Press, 1999. • Cairncross, Frances. The Death of

Distance 2.0. Harvard University Press, 2000

Documents

Supertrends