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Supersymmetric Dark Matter in Light of Recent Results from LHC, Xenon100 and Fermi Data

Leszek Roszkowski*

National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ)Warsaw, Poland

(On behalf of BayesFITS group)

*On leave of absence from University of Sheffield

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Outline• The big picture• Supersymmetric dark matter in the CMSSM• Impact of LHC 1/fb results• Impact of XENON100 limit• Prospects for DM direct detection search• Impact of FermiLAT dSphs data• Prospects for DeepCore• Summary Based on:

•Fowlie, Kalinowski, Kazana, Roszkowski, Tsai (arXiv:1111.6098)•Roszkowski, Sessolo, Tsai (arXiv:1202.1503)

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The Big Picturehep-ph/0404052

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Waiting for ``SUSY Spring’’

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Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM)

G. L. Kane, C. F. Kolda, L. Roszkowski andJ. D. Wells, Phys. Rev. D 49 (1994) 6173

figure from hep-ph/9709356

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Hide and seek with SUSY

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Statistical approachCentral object: Likelihood function

Limits:

• Smear out bounds.• Can add theory error.

Positive measurements:

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Bayesian statistics

Bayes theorem:

• Prior: what we know about hypothesis BEFORE seeing the data.• Likelihood: the probability of obtaining data if hypothesis is true.

• Evidence: normalization constant, crucial for model comparison.

• Posterior: the probability about hypothesis AFTER seeing the data.

If hypothesis is a function of parameters, then posterior becomes posterior probability function (pdf).

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Hide and seek with SUSY

Limits

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LHC: Currently best limits from CMS

twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMSPublic/PhysicsResultsSUS

Last week: limits from 4.4/fbhttp://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1430715

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Reproduce alpha_T limitPoisson distribution to characterize counting experiments. 

CMS alphaT 1.1/fb 95% lower limit

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CMS 95% LIMIT!

(arXiv:1111.6098)

SUSY events: generate MC simulations. Apply the same kinematical cuts as CMS. Obtain approximate efficiency and likelihood maps.

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Numerical scans Perform random scan

over 4 CMSSM +4 SM parameters simultaneously

Use Nested Sampling algorithm to evaluate posterior

• Very wide ranges:

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Impact of CMS alpha_T limit on CMSSMBefore LHC (1/fb) After LHC (1/fb)

• Favored (high posterior) regions (stau coan., A-funnel) are pushed up.• Light Higgs funnel region is excluded.• Focus point/horizontal branch region gets enhanced and pushed out.

A-funnel

h-funnel

(arXiv:1111.6098)

FP/HB

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Stau coannihilation

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Impact on DM direct detectionXENON(2011) limit not applied (arXiv:1111.6098)

• LHC limit pushes sigma_p down, mostly below XENON100 limit.• One-tonne detector reach:

sigma_p~2x10^-11 pb.

One will need 1 tonne DM detectors to probe favored ranges.Leszek Roszkowski, Rencontres de Moriond14 March 12

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Impact of XENON100 limit• Add XENON100 90%CL • LHC alpha_T limit: already

strong impact on CMSSM, sigma_p

• Error on evaluating sigma_p is ~ factor of 10:– Local density ~2

– Hadronic matrix elements ~5-10:

Weak effect.Mostly in focus point region.

LHC limits on CMSSM are stronger

arXiv:0801.3656

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Extend CMSSM scan to FP/HB

Our Likelihood maps allow us to go beyond the regime of published alphaT limit.

Big high posterior probability region in focus point/hyperbolic branch region.

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Impact on Direct Detection of DM

Wider scan (m_0<4 TeV)

• Add XENON100 Narrower scan (m_0<2 TeV)

Reducing theory error to tau=1 almost no effect.

Currently XENON100 explores FP/HB region.But, because of large theory error, it cannot really constrain it!

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Impact of FermiLAT dSph gamma• Add FermiLAT dSph 90%CL limit • FermiLAT assumed NFW

Conclusions rather strongly depend on assumed halo profile.If NFW generic DM profile, then FermiLAT gamma limit has almost no effect.

arXiv:1108.3546

Allowing DM profile to vary strongly weakens the impact.

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SUSY: <sigma v> will be hard to constrain.

arXiv:1108.3546

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CMSSM DM: Prospects for DeepCore

IceCube contained events: slightly worse.

DeepCore will be sensitive to FP/HB region.

DeepCore will rule out WW annihilation channel.

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Summary• With 1.1/fb at LHC: improved limits on SUSY particle masses.• Our Bayesian analysis includes all relevant constraints via likelihood function.• The CMSSM has become severely constrained but not excluded.• Constraints from direct detection of dark matter are currently weaker than from LHC even in the FP/HB region, due to large theoretical uncertainties.• Prospects for direct detection of DM: need 1 tonne targets.• FermiLAT’s diffuse gamma-radiation data from dSphs probe FP/HB region. Impact depends on assumed halo profile.• DeepCore will also be sensitive to the FP/HB region.

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Backup

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Biggest challenges to the CMSSM

• Light Higgs

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SUSY DM before and after LHC(1/fb)

arXiv:0705.2012 with updates

Before LHC

After LHC(1/fb)

XENON(2011) (not applied)

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