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SUICIDE IN THE WORLD:TOWARD A POPULATIONINCREASE THEORY OFSUICIDEJIE ZHANGPublished online: 11 Nov 2010.

To cite this article: JIE ZHANG (1998) SUICIDE IN THE WORLD: TOWARD APOPULATION INCREASE THEORY OF SUICIDE, Death Studies, 22:6, 525-539,DOI: 10.1080/074811898201380

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é ù

` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `

SUICIDE IN THE WORLD: TOWARD A POPULATIONINCREASE THEORY OF SUICIDE

` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` ` `

JIE ZHANG

Department of Sociology, State University of New York College at Bu� alo, USA

U sing recent ly ob tained suicide rates and economic development indicators f or 60

countr ies, this s tudy investigates the e�ects of moderniz ation on suicide throughout

the w orld. R esults support the hypothes is that high suicide rates are related to mod-

erniz ation b ut w ith revisions. A lthough suicide is negatively correlat ed w ith popu-

lation g row th indicators and positively correlated w ith quality of lif e indicators, in

multiple reg ression analy ses w ith all other f actors controlled, the population grow th

factor is a much b etter predictor of suicide rates than the quality of lif e f actor. T his

® nding holds true f or b oth developing and developed countr ies w hen the tw o sub -

samples w ere tested separate ly . T he population increase theory of suicide is high-

lighted as an explanation of suicide rates in the w orld, and rami ® cations of the

theory are discus sed.

Modernization theory postulates that moderniz ation is a lengthy andirreversible progress through which all contemporary societiesincreasingly come to resemble one another ( Rostow, 1978) .According to this theory, modernized societies share such charac-teristics as nuclear families, secular religions, formal education,high mobility, and secondary group relations. As one of the earlyadvocates of modernization theory, Emile Durkheim (1951) attrib-uted suicides generally to the social factors that are basically theconsequences of modernization. Empirical evidence from sociologi-cal research since Durkheim has generally con® rmed the positive

R eceived 21 January 1997 ; accepted 21 A ugu st 1997.Part of the data for the researc h w ere p rov ided by the Popu la tion R eference Bureau in

its 1995 W or ld P opula tio n D ata S h e e t .A ddress corresp ondence to J ie Zhang , Departm en t of Sociology , S tate U niversity of N ew

Y ork Colleg e a t Bu� a lo, 1300 E lmw ood A venue, Bu� alo, N Y 14222-1 095.

Dea th Studies, 22 : 525± 539, 1998Copyright 1998 Tay lor & FrancisÓ

0748-1187 /98 $12.00 1 .00 525

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526 J . Z hang

correlation between modernization and suicide rates in the world.Nevertheless, countries modernized at the same level do not neces-sarily have the same suicide rate. One criticism of modernizationtheory is that it neglects the importance of culture and history in asociety’s economic development ( Wallerstein, 1974) . Because mod-ernization is usually measured by several di� erent social economicindicators, some indicators may be more strongly related to suiciderates than others. The purpose of this article is to conduct an ana-lytical study of the modernization factors that are exempli® ed indi� erent countries all over the world so as to investigate theire� ects on suicide rates.

The Theoretical Model

Modernization is understood as a social and economic processtoward industrialization, urbanization, and secularization. InDurkheim’s ( 1951) view, egoism and anomie are unavoidable con-sequences of modernization because industrialization, urban-ization, and secularization usually break ties between theindividual and group life. Speci® cally, the ensuing decline in sub-ordination of the individual to the group ( i.e., increased egoism)increases suicide potential, and the unleashed appetites for pro® tsin industrial capitalism lead to growing anomie and are, hence,important causes of anomic suicide (Durkheim, 1951 ; Stack, 1993) .

Durkheim’s notion that modernization is positively correlatedwith suicide rates has been evidenced in many cross-culturalstudies ( e.g., Ellner, 1977 ; Simpson and Conklin, 1989 ; Stack,1978, 1982) . Stack ( 1978) , for example, examined the relationshipbetween economic growth and suicide rates within a sample of 45nations and found that the higher female participation in the laborforce in an industrialized society causes role con¯ ict and, subse-quently, more male suicides. Generally, modern societies are char-acterized by improved living standards. It is not logical toconclude that better life causes depression or hopelessness thatleads to self-destruction. There must be something coming togetherwith modernization that makes people in a modernized society feelhopeless, depressed, or suicidal. Stack’s ( 1978) ® nding as aboveserves as an illustrative example.

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S uicide in the W orld 527

A country’s modernization level is commonly assessed by anumber of highly correlated variables. Some examples are GrossNational Product ( GNP) per capita, the percentage of total popu-lation living in urban areas, the percentage of women using contra-ceptives, life expectancy, birth rate, death rate, populat ion growthrate, and the percentage of population over 65 or below 15 years ofage. Instead of simply claiming that there is a linkage betweenmodernization and suicides, it is more meaningful to ® nd outwhether all of the indicators are directly related to suicide rates,and if not all, which ones are more likely to be related to suiciderates.

Method

Data for the analysis were from two di� erent sources : Diekstra’s( 1990) suicide rates in 62 countries and the World Populat ionData Sheet by the Population Reference Bureau ( 1995) . The unitof analysis in this research is the country.

Suicide rates ( per 100,000 population) in 1980± 1986 were pro-vided by Diekstra ( 1990) for 62 countries ( see Table 1) . Some tech-nical modi® cations were needed for the suicide rates. First,although published in 1990, Diekstra’s ® gures did not re¯ ect thepolitical reuni® cation of the Germanies. To be consistent with theWorld Population Data Sheet that includes statistics of oneGermany, an average suicide rate was calculated out of those ofthe Federal Republic of Germany and the German DemocraticRepublic. Second, the data sheet does not include information forScotland. Therefore, Scotland is removed from the list of 62 coun-tries. Third, although the suicide rate is listed for NorthernIreland, this country is considered to be part of the UnitedKingdom in the World Population Data Sheet. The suicide rate forthe United Kingdom is the average taken from the rates of North-ern Ireland, England, and Wales. Fourth, China was not on Die-kstra’s list, but suicide rates were available from the studies ofZhang ( 1996) , He and Lester ( in press) , and Phillips and Liu( 1996) . For the current study, the suicide rate for China ( 28.86 per100,000 population) was obtained from Phillips and Liu ( 1996) ,which is regarded as the most complete among the three studies. In

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TABLE 1 Suicide Rates ( per 100,000 of Population) in 62Countries : 1980± 1986 (Diekstra, 1990)

Country Rate

1 Hungary 45.32 Federal Republic of Germany 43.12 Sri Lanka 29.04 Austria 28.35 Denmark 27.86 Finland 26.67 Belgium 23.88 Switzerland 22.89 France 22.7

10 Suriname 21.611 Japan 21.212 German Democratic Republic 19.013 Czechoslovakia 18.914 Sweden 18.515 Cuba 17.716 Bulgaria 16.317 Yugoslavia 16.118 Norway 14.119 Luxembourg 13.920 Iceland 13.321 Poland 13.022 Canada 12.923 Singapore 12.724 United States 12.325 Hong Kong 12.226 Australia 11.627 Scotland 11.628 The Netherlands 11.029 El Salvador 10.830 New Zealand 10.331 Puerto Rico 9.832 Uruguay 9.633 Northern Ireland 9.334 Portugal 9.235 England and Wales 8.936 Trinidad and Tobago 8.637 Guadeloupe 7.938 Ireland 7.839 Italy 7.640 Thailand 6.641 Argentina 6.3

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S uicide in the W orld 529

TABLE 1 Continued

Country Rate

42 Chile 6.243 Spain 4.944 Venezuela 4.845 Costa Rica 4.546 Ecuador 4.347 Greece 4.148 Martinique 3.749 Colombia 2.950 Mauritius 2.851 Dominican Republic 2.452 Mexico 1.653 Panama 1.454 Peru 1.455 The Philippines .556 Guatemala .557 Malta .358 Nicaragua .259 Papua New Guinea .260 Jamaica .161 Egypt .162 Antigua and Barbuda Ð

sum, three countries were merged or removed from the list of 62,and one was added to it. Thus, 60 countries were analyzed for therelationship between suicide and modernization variables.

Modernization variables for the countries were found in theWorld Population Data Sheet that lists all geopolit ical entities withpopulations of 150,000 or more and all members of the UnitedNations. Although a total of 227 geopolitical entities are availablefor analysis, only the data for the 60 nations that publish suiciderates were used for the current study. Variables selected for studyinclude birth rate, natural population increase ( annual %) , infantmortality rate, total fertility rate, the percentage of populat ionyounger than 15, the percentage of population older than 65, lifeexpectancy at birth, the percentage of urban population, the per-centage of married women using contraception, and per capitaGNP.

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Results

For the suicide rate for each of the 60 countries, please refer toDiekstra ( 1990) or see Table 1. Table 2 provides correlation coeffi-cients for all the variables involved and for the total sample of 60nations. As can be seen, all the modernization variables are highlyintercorrelated. In addition, most are strongly related to thesuicide rates recorded for the 60 countries. Although the percent-age of the population living in urban areas ( p 5 .372) is not signi® -cantly correlated with suicide at the .05 probability level, all othermodernization variables are related to the suicide rate at the .05probability level. Life expectancy, percentage of married womenusing contraception, and GNP per capita are all positively corre-lated with the suicide rate. Because the sample of suicide rates hasonly 60 cases but accounts for about one third of the nations of theworld, statistical signi® cance is less important here than in a trueprobability test, where the sample is comparatively large and theratio of the sample to the population is very small. Thus, compari-son of the strengths of coefficients is more important, and the corre-lation and regression coefficients are informative by themselves inthis study.

Modernization is characterized by a low birth rate, low naturalincrease of population, low infant mortality rate, low fertility rate,and low percentage of population younger than 15 years of age.These ® ve variables are all negatively correlated with the suiciderate. As other indicators of modernization, percentage of popu-lation older than 65 years of age, life expectancy, percentage ofurban population, percentage of married women using contra-ception, and per capita GNP are all positively correlated with thesuicide rate, although one of them (percentage of urbanpopulation) is not signi® cant at the .05 level. Almost all the coeffi-cients indicate that the more modernized a society is, the higher itssuicide rate tends to be.

Because of the high multicollinearity caused by the inter-correlation among all the independent variables, a multiple regres-sion with the suicide rate as its dependent variable will not yieldany reliable results. In striking contrast with what we can see inthe correlation matrix, the multiple regression performed for thesample of 60 nations, with all other independent variables being

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S uicide in the W orld 533

controlled, shows that only one independent variable ( the naturalincrease of populat ion, p 5 .0148) signi® cantly predicts the suiciderate ( df 5 10, F 5 5.83, signi® cant F 5 .0001) .

To better understand the nature of di� erent modernization vari-ables and identify their predictive ability, factor analysis was con-ducted to stratify these variables. The e� orts resulted in theextraction of only one factor with an eigenvalue of 7.623 for the tenvariables. With about 76.2% of the variance explained in themodel, this factor is an adequate construct of modernization. This® nding further con® rms the multicollinearity that exists among thevariables and ensures that a regression model cannot be run for thevariables as they are.

Lester and Stack ( 1989) suggested that the results of a study onsuicide rates and correlations may critically depend on the way inwhich the sample of nations is chosen. For example, the resultsfrom di� erent samples of nations by Stack ( 1983) and Lester( 1987) con¯ icted. To further illustrate this point, Lester and Stack( 1989) compared the results from the entire available sample and asample of all European nations. They found a strong associationbetween the suicide rate and the quality of life in the entire avail-able sample but not in the sample of all European nations. Toavoid the bias resulting from sampling, the current research strati-® ed the sample into two groups : developing and developednations.

Following the United Nations classi® cation, developed nationscomprise all of Europe and North America, plus Japan, SouthKorea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore, and NewZealand, while all others are classi® ed as developing nations( Population Reference Bureau, 1995) . Thus, out of the totalsample of 60 cases with suicide rates, 31 are developing nations and29 developed. Although the mean suicide rate for the total sampleis 11.9 per 100,000 of populat ion ( SD 5 9.78) , the rates for thedeveloping and developed nations are 7.4 ( SD 5 8.24) and 16.7( SD 5 9.10) , respectively. The trend is obvious that developedcountries tend to have higher suicide rates than the developingones. The correlation matrixes for the two subsamples are shown inTable 3 and Table 4 respectively.

For the developing countries, as can be seen in Table 3, most ofthe modernization variables are signi® cantly correlated with one

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S uicide in the W orld 535

another, as we see in the total sample ( Table 2) . However, onlyfour of the ten modernization variables ( birth rate, natural popu-lation increase rate, fertility rate, and percentage of populat ionyounger than 15 years of age) are signi® cantly related to suiciderates. On the other hand, for the developed countries as can beseen in Table 4, the modernization variables are less likely to gotogether than in the developing countries. Furthermore, only onevariable, the natural population increase rate, is signi® cantlyassociated with the suicide rate. Obviously, modernization vari-ables are better predictors of the suicide rate in developing than indeveloped nations.

Although there is only one factor extracted from all the modern-ization indicators for the whole sample of 60 nations, factoranalysis with orthogonal rotation for the sample of the developingcountries (N 5 31) yielded two factors. Factor 1 comprises all thevariables relevant to population growth, while Factor 2 consists ofthe rest of the variables that are about the quality of life. Table 5also illustrates the results of factor analyses with orthogonal rota-tion for the developed countries ( N 5 29) . Four factors wereextracted from the sample for the developed countries. In additionto population growth and the quality of life factors found in thedeveloping countries, two other factors appeared. Fertility wasextracted from population growth and urbanization was out fromquality of life. The factor di� erences between the developing anddeveloped nations in these analyses could be interpreted in light ofDurkheim’s theory of social structure. Preindustrial societies arecharacterized by simplicity and homogeneity, whereas industrial-ized societies share the characteristics of complexity and heter-ogeneity (Durkheim, 1964) .

Orthogonal rotations were used in the factor analyses to assumethat the factors are independent of each other. Multiple regressionsusing the orthogonal rotated factors as independent variablesshould not have the multicollinearity concerns as in the multipleregression analyses using the original modernization indicators.Multiple regressions were conducted for each subsample with theidenti® ed factors as independent variables. In the multiple regres-sion analysis for the developing countries ( N 5 31) , the two inde-pendent variables were population growth and quality of life. Inthe multiple regression analysis for the developed countries

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TABLE 5 Results of the Factor Analyses for Both Developing and DevelopedCountries

Eigenvalues and rotated factor loadings for the developing countriesPopulation Quality of

Growth Life( Factor 1) ( Factor 2)

Eigenvalue 6.69907 1.36808Birth rate .85869 2 .47042N. increase .96121 2 .15781Fertility rate .81504 2 .52513% age , 15 .85928 2 .43547% age 651 Ô .93902 .05267Infant mortality .58233 Ô .71051Life expectancy 2 .46493 .79805% urban 2 .41529 .63072% m. women 2 .12190 .74420

contraceptionPer capita GNP 2 .05607 .75851

Eigenvalue and rotated factor loadings for the developed countriesQuality Populationof Life Growth Fertility Urbanization

( Factor 1) ( Factor 2) ( Factor 3) ( Factor 4)

Eigenvalue 3.90960 2.75336 1.40700 1.13632Infant mortality Ô .90389 .14343 .17302 2 .20859Life expectancy .95381 .03273 2 .11757 .08420Per capita GNP .90534 2 .18861 .11559 .03733N. increase .19793 .94520 .17787 .12119% age , 15 2 .41077 .77562 .39807 .07923% age 651 .43883 Ô .84372 .21159 2 .04487Birth rate 2 .08613 .58840 .76458 .17933Fertility rate 2 .06338 .00141 .95681 .06314% urban .14468 .10198 2 .09918 .92232% m. women .09230 .08800 .35433 .83719

contraception

( N 5 29) , the four independent variables were quality of life,population growth, fertility, and urbanization. Table 6 presents theresults of both analyses. For the sample of developing countries,about 36% of the variance in the suicide rate is explained by thetwo factors in the model ( df 5 2, F 5 4.86, signi® cant F 5 .02) .Although both population growth and the quality of life are nega-tively associated with suicide rates, only populat ion growth is sig-

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S uicide in the W orld 537

TABLE 6 Results of Multiple Regressions for Both Developing andDeveloped Countries

Factors b se b b t sig. t

Developing countriesPopulation Growth 2 8.96 2.95 2 .59 2 3.04 .00Quality of Life 2 2.50 3.64 2 .13 2 .69 .50( constant) 7.70 3.10 2.49 .02

Developed countriesQuality of Life 2 2.61 2.18 2 .25 2 1.20 .25Population Growth 2 6.69 2.45 2 .57 2 2.74 .02Fertility 2 .35 1.89 2 .04 2 .19 .86Urbanization 2 .37 1.89 2 .04 2 .19 .85( constant) 18.71 1.94 9.64 .00

N ote . For dev elop ing countries, M u ltiple R 5 .60, R 2 5 .36, A dju stedR 2 5 .29, d f 5 2, F 5 4.86, S ign i ® cance of F 5 .02. For develop ed cou ntries,M u ltiple R 5 .70, R 2 5 .49, A d justed R 2 5 .33, df 5 4, F 5 3.07, and signi ® -cance of F 5 .05.

ni® cant at .05 level. On the other hand, four factors account forabout 49% of the variance in the suicide rate for developed nations( df 5 4, F 5 3.07, signi® cant F 5 .05) . Among the four predictivefactors for developed nations, only populat ion growth is signi® cantat the .05 probability level. Thus, for both samples, populat iongrowth stands out as the strongest factor predicting suicide rates inthe world.

Discussion and Conclusions

Four patterns are revealed by the three correlation matrixes. First,the population growth variables are negatively related to suiciderates ( the faster the rate of growth, the lower the suicide rate) ,while the quality-of-life variables tend to positively correlate withsuicide rates. Second, for the total sample of 60 nations, the popu-lation growth variables are more strongly related to suicide thanthe quality-of-life variables ( see Table 2) . Third, for developingcountries, population growth variables are more likely to be signi® -cantly related to suicide rates than are quality-of-life variables ( seeTable 3) . Fourth, in the sample of developed countries, only one

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variable, the natural increase of population, is signi® cantly relatedto suicide ( see Table 4) . In sum, suicide rates increase along withthe modernization of a society, and population growth is one of thebest predictors of lower suicide rates. For example, developingcountries enjoy faster population growth but lower suicide rates.Although most quality-of-life variables are not signi® cantly corre-lated with the suicide rate, they tend to be positively related to it.

Correlation analyses supported the modernization theory ofsuicide. At the same time, they revealed that between the twomodernization measures, the quality of life is not as strong as popu-lation growth in predicting suicide. This ® nding is further con-® rmed in the multiple regression models. Generally, themodernization level in a society is a good predictor of its suiciderate, but all the aspects of modernization are not equally strongpredictors. The best predictors of low suicide rates were found tobe a high birth rate, fast natural population increase, high fertilityrate, more people younger than 15 years of age, and less popu-lation over 65 years of age. The construct constituted by these vari-ables is called population growth, carrying the meaning ofpopulation increase. Societies with high populat ion increase ratesare generally characterized by a higher proportion of youngpeople. Obviously, the low suicide rate in a developing country ismore related to the larger proportion of young people than to thehigher living standards enjoyed by its people.

One possible interpretation of these ® ndings is that people withchildren living at home are less likely to commit suicide. Thisrelationship has been established earlier by Durkheim (1951) in hisfamily density theory of suicide. The family density theory arguesthat the larger the size of the family, the less chance for an individ-ual in the family to commit suicide (Durkheim, 1951) . However, inthe current macrolevel data, family size is not available, and whatis salient as the e� ect is the younger population. Large family sizeand younger populat ion may overlap to some extent, but the latteris a broader concept that is contributed by several populat iongrowth variables in this study.

It is fairly simplistic to predict suicide rates in the world usingthe modernization level. It might not be the e� ect of moderniza-tion as a whole, but the e� ect of certain indicators of moderniza-tion that works. It may be argued that the relationship between

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the population growth and the suicide rate is spurious becausemodernization or modernity can be viewed as a third variable thatin¯ uences both of them. However, no relationship can be foundbetween quality of life and suicide rates although both of them areassumed to be a consequence of modernization. The relationshipbetween populat ion growth and suicide rates is both unique andsolid, with empirical evidence from both modernized and preindus-trial societies.

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