Suffrage and Turnout

POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith

Office Hours

• When– Today 11-12– Weds 10-2– And by appointment

• Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes I

• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings

• Chapter 2: Suffrage and Turnout (Flanigan)

• Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Chapter 3.

NON VOTINGWhat about the 50% that don’t vote

Why Americans Don’t Vote

• Institutional Factors

• Demographic Factors

• Behavioral Factors

Why People Don’t Vote:

Institutions

Registration

• Registration is a large restriction on voting

• States control this power

• Once you register, you are more likely to vote

Other Institutional Barriers

• Restrictions on suffrage

• Electoral Competition

WHY PEOPLE DON’T VOTEDemographics

Why Young People Don’t Vote

• Are Unfamiliar with the system-

• Are one step above Gypsies

• Have less formal and political education

Traditional Demographics

• Race

• Gender

• Region

Low Turnout Because of Behavioral Factors

Low Social Capital

• Writings of Robert Putnam

• We are not connected to the community

• As a Result, we don’t participate in politics

Low turnout because of partisanship

• Fewer People Identify with one of the parties

• Increasingly difficult to target voters

• Partisan districts depress turnout

Mobilization and turnout in 2008

• Voter Contacts and support

• The Long Campaign in 2008 advantaged Obama.

Campaign Contact

HIGH AND LOW STIMULUS ELECTIONS

The Saw-tooth Pattern

Presidential elections

• Why Higher

• What is the Result- the exciting saw-tooth pattern

Midyear Tends to be boring

THE RATIONAL VOTER MODELShould We Vote?

Normative Democratic Theory

• The Classical View of Voting

• How We should Participate

Rational Choice Theory of Voting

• When Should We Vote?

• Who should We Vote For?

The Purpose of an Election is Simple

• A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies

or• A call for the opposition

to Change things

Our Choices are Simple

1. Abstain

2. Vote for Our Favorite Party

3. Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance

4. Vote For a Party at Random

WHY WE ABSTAINStay at home

Rational Abstention

• The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting

• The costs often outweigh the benefits

• The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)

Why Abstainers are important

• Parties have no idea who is going to abstain

• Parties cannot ignore these people

• There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance

• Their abstention often does not harm them

The Problems of Abstaining

• Democracy Cannot Exist

• The costs of democracy are too high

• The benefits are too low.

SHOULD I VOTE OR ABSTAIN?

The Rational Voting Calculus

• C= Cost of participation• B= Benefit of voting• P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term

C> PB +D We Stay At HomeC< PB +D We Vote

Voting is Not Costless

• Time Costs

• Information Costs

• Monetary Costs

Information Costs

• The costs of becoming an informed voter

• Learning who is running

• Understanding the Differences between candidates

• Information costs are especially high

Time Costs

• Registration

• Travel

• The vote itself

• Ways that we have reduced these over time?

The Monetary Costs of Voting

• Poll Taxes- Not any more

• Costs of not working

• Opportunity Costs

The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout

• Not all costs are born equally

• Those who vote less have less political power

• This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”

High Costs can deter voters, even if they have a preference

BP +DBenefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty

Probability of Deciding the Election (P Term)

• How Close you believe the election to be

• How Many People are expected to vote

• If no one votes, democracy collapses

Does the P Term Matter?

• Some Say No

• Examine the Cumulative Effect

• We do not vote for the sake of casting the tie-breaking ballot

Benefits From Voting (B Term)

• Direct benefits

• Policy Benefits

• Desire to see one side win

Civic Duty (D Term)

• Democracy is the reward for voting

• If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote

• It can be a long term investment

The Rational Voting Calculus

C> PB +D We Stay At Home

C< PB +D We Vote