Succession Politics in Indonesia

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Succession Politicsin IndonesiaThe 1998 Presidential Elections and theFall of Suharto

Bilveer SinghAssociate ProfessorNational University of Singapore

First published in Great Britain 2000 by

MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-41696-7 ISBN 978-0-230-51356-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230513563

First published in the United States of America 2000 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010

ISBN 978-0-312-22914-3

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Singh, Bilveer, 1956-Succession politics in Indonesia : the 1998 presidential elections and the fall of Suharto I Bilveer Singh. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-22914-3 I. Indonesia-Politics and govemment-1966-1998. 2. Indonesia­-Politics and govemment-1998- 3. Soeharto, 1921- . I. Title. DS644.4.S5824 1999 320.9598'09'049-dc21 99-38753

CIP

© Bilveer Singh 2000 Soft cover reprint of the hard cover 1st edition 2000 978-0-333-77602-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WI P OLP.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.

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CONTENTS

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ix

PREFACE xiii

INTRODUCTION 1

1. The 'Succession Debates' and Scenarios inIndonesia, March 1993-March 1998 12

2. The May 1997 Indonesian General Electionsand Changes in ABRI Leadership in theContext of the Presidential Elections 32

3. Political Manoeuvres Prior to the PresidentialElections and the March 1998 MPR Session 50

4. Post-MPR Politics and the Fall of Suharto 77

5. Contending Explanations of Suharto's Fall:A Peoples' Power Revolution or a PoliticalConspiracy? 99

6. Post-Suharto Indonesia: The Potential andLimits of Habibie' s Reforms 155

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CONTENTS

7. Habibie' s Foreign Policy 237

CONCLUSION

Prospects for the Future: Whither Indonesia? 262

SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY 280

INDEX 290

Vlll

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABRI

APEC

ASEAN

ASEM

ASPRI

BABINSA

Angkatan Bersenjata Republik Indonesia(Armed Forces of the Republic of Indonesia)

Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Asia Europe Meeting

Assisten Presiden(Presidential Assistants)

Bintara Pembina Desa

BAKIN

BIA

CIDES

(Village Development Non-Commissioned Officer)

Badan Kordanasi Intelijen Negara(National Intelligence Co-odinatingAgency)

Badan Intelijen ABRI(ABRI's Intelligence Agency)

Centre for Information and DevelopmentStudies

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CSIS

DPA

DPR

FKI

GBHN

Centre for Strategic and InternationalStudies

Dewan Pertimbangan Agung(Supreme Advisory Council)

Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat(House of Representatives)

Forum Kerja Indonesia(Indonesia Working Forum)

Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara(Broad Outline of State Policy)

GESTAPU

GNP

GOLKAR

G-15

ICMI

Gerakan September Tiga Puluh(30th September Movement)

Gross National Product

Golongan Karya(Functional Group)

Group of 15

Ikatan Cendekiawan Muslim Indonesia(Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals' Association)

IKD

IMF

Institut Kajian Dasar(Institute of Policy Studies)

International Monetary Fund

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

KKN Korupsi, Kolusi, NepotismCorruption, Collusion, Nepotism

KOPKAMTIB Komando Operasi Pemulihan Keamanandan Ketertitan(Operation Command for the Restorationof Security and Order)

KOSGORO Koperasi Serba Guna Gotong Royong(Multipurpose Co-operatives for MutualAssistance)

KOSTRAD Komando Strategic Angkatan Darat(Army Strategic and Reserve Command)

LEMHANNAS Lembaga Pertahanan Nasional(National Defence institute)

MAR Majlis Amanah Rakyat(Council for People's Mandate)

MPR Majlis Permusyawaratan Rakyat(People's Consultative Assembly)

NAM

NGO

NU

OPSUS

Non-Aligned Movement

Non-governmental Organisation

Nahdatul Ulama

Operasi Khusus(Special Operations)

PAP People's Action Party

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

PDI Parti Demokratik Indonesia(Indonesian Democratic Party)

PKI Parti Komunis Indonesia(Communist Party of Indonesia)

PSI Parti Sosialis Indonesia

(Indonesian Socialist Party)

SAF Singapore Armed Forces

SUPERSEMAR Surat Perintah Sebelas Maret(Letter of Instruction of 11 March)

UMNO United Malay National Organization

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PREFACE

Politics is the exercise of state power and those whowield such powers can affect policy constructs of thestate and affect lives of people living therein. In the

case of Indonesia, of all the political offices, the Presidency isthe single most important political office and wields the mostpower. Even President B. J. Habibie, the present incumbentwas frank enough to admit this, arguing that 'according to therules of the game of Indonesian politics, the President is oneof the most powerful man in the country', something whichthe incumbent finds rather disturbing as 'this can be simplytoo dangerous'.* The responsibilities of the President havebeen enshrined in the 1945 Constitution, providing the ChiefExecutive with immense powers, including being the Head ofState, Head of Government, Mandataris of the Peoples' Con-sultative Assembly and Supreme Commander of the ArmedForces. As an Asian country with a great political past, theactual powers of the Chief Executive are written as well asfound in unwritten conventions and practices, and thus, thePresident is actually more powerful than can be expected. Withso much at stake, the contest for the Presidency is extremely im-portant in Indonesia, all the more since the country had, untilMarch 1998, experienced only two 'presidential successions',and that too, during turbulent times with great loss of lives.

Author's interview with President of the Republic of Indonesia, Profes-sor B. J. Habibie on 3 October 1998.

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PREFACE

In this study, succession refers to the way in which politi-cal power passes or is transferred from one individual to an-other. Narrowly, it is the orderly arrangements made for thetransfer of power and how a regime manages the transitionperiod. The ability to make transition of this kind peacefullyover a period of time is taken as one of the many indicators ofpolitical stability. While in most political systems, successioncan take place in the highest to the lowest office, in this study,the concern is essentially with the Presidency and to some ex-tent, the Vice-Presidency. Succession is necessary due to thephysiological existence of man - the only certainty about manis his mortality, making succession something that is inevita-ble, regardless of how powerful a man may be. The only un-known is when and how this will take place. Succession cancome through renewal or through the forcible removal of theincumbent and where a new 'contract' would have to be workedout between the Ruler and the Ruled.

In this context, the challenge of the March 1998 Presidentialelections in Indonesia was whether the process and mecha-nism established would be able to meet the challenges thrownup by the manifold crises confronting the country. Here, oneof the key questions was what it would mean for the future ofIndonesian politics in the even of Suharto's re-election to thePresidency for the seventh term. In view of Suharto's ripe ageand various medical problems, on the one hand, and the im-mense political, economic and social problems facing thecountry, on the other, the key question was whether Suhartowould eventually transfer power to his successor in an orderlyand peaceful manner or would this be undertaken in turbulenceas had been undertaken by his predecessors, especially if hisre-election was opposed by various political groups.

In the end, even though Suharto was re-elected for therecord seventh term, his Presidency was a beleaguered onewith the contraction of the economy, unleashing political and

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PREFACE

social challenges that were to culminate in the May 1998Revolution that ultimately forced Indonesia's 'strongman' toresign in favour of his Vice-President, B. J. Habibie. With that,Indonesia precipitously entered into the post-New Order, post-Suharto era, one full of uncertainties and crises. It is against thisbackdrop that this study aims to analyse the politics of succes-sion in Indonesia and try to provide some answers as how aman, dubbed the 'best son of the soil' and elected overwhelm-ingly by a well-oiled political machinery, was eventually forcedto resign 72 days later.

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