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Subsidies for a better Labour Market. António Murta. Agenda. 1- Introduction 2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model 3- The impact of technology 4- Demographics and longevity 5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? 6- My own perspective 7- A look into the future. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Subsidies for a better Labour Market
António Murta
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Agenda
1- Introduction
2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model
3- The impact of technology
4- Demographics and longevity
5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts?
6- My own perspective
7- A look into the future
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Introduction
AS-IS Labour Market
TO-BE Labour Market
Regulatory pressures
Individual awarenessThe forces
that shape it
Challenge: what can we do to make the labour market a better one?
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resources Demographics and longevity
5
1
2
4 3
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resources Demographics and longevity
5
1
2
4 3
• Cloud services/ PAAS• Convergence (Digital)• High added-value automation• Internet of Things: quantum digital leap
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resources Demographics and longevity
5
1
2
4 3
• 24x7• $: old-rich → new-rich• Education powerhouses: China + India• Urbanization ↑
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resourcesDemographics and longevity
51
2
4 3
• Words population growth ↑↑ (!)• Demographic paterns of the old-rich ↓• Longevity ↑• Wellfare state = non-sustainable in the present form
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resources Demographics and longevity
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2
4 3
• Energy prices ↑• Sustainability emerging as a key trend• Need for a massive transformation of the energy value chain
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The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model
Social change
Technology
GlobalizationLabour Market
Energy resources Demographics and longevity
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2
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• Role of women as leaders• Lack of trust on institutions (including democracy)• Family (reinvented)• Growing social awareness
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The impact of technology
Man – machine divide line and the effect of innovation (over time) on it
The effect of innovation over time+
-
-
+
Man – machine divide line
Man Territory
MachineTerritory
Cost of human labour
• Kurtzweil: singularity = 2045?
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The impact of technology
Cloud services: creation of a truly global labour market
P1 P1
P2
input output input output
• Location does not matter (customer, worker)• Virtual value chains• Quality = Y (costs, levels of service)
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The impact of technology
Unified Umbrella brand and digital interface
VOICE DATA INTERNET TV MOVIES
MUSIC MAGAZINES BOOKS TICKETS HOME CONTROL
ENERGY SECURITY WELL BEING HEALTH CARE EXPENSES
Digital convergence: 3-Play 20-Play(from Telco to Digital Distribution)
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Demographics and longevity
7 Billion people
9 Billion people
2010 2050
Simply the biggest threat that we all face
!!!Earth
Earth
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Demographics and longevity
The European wellfare state is not sustainable anymore….
• No growth or limited growth
• Demographics working against it
• Implications on immigration policy
• Danger of generational clashes(David Willets =2030?)
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What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts?
SHIFT 1
SHIFT2
SHIFT3
From generalist to expert (IP Focus)
From isolated competition to active networker
From unbalanced consumer to passionate producer
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My own perspective
Flexibility (to gain time)
Personal awareness
Change Management on the
Labour Market
Global regulation
1
24
3
Politics
How can we diminuish the risks of isolation/ Social
exlusion?
Expanded entrepreneurship
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My own perspective
Expanded entrepreneurship
Flexibility (to gain time)
Personal awareness
Change Managment on the
Labour Market
Global regulation
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24
3
Politics
• Gerhard Schroder• Protection of employment• Attitude change: entrepreneurs + workers• You can only do it if you can fund it (previous savings)!
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My own perspective
Expanded entrepreneurship
Flexibility (to gain time)
Personal awareness
Change Managment on the
Labour Market
Global regulation
1
24
3
Politics
• Continuous education• To save for the end of the life (back to history)• Work for a longer total time• Opportunities for the seniors
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My own perspective
Expanded entrepreneurship
Flexibility (to gain time)
Personal awareness
Change Managment on the
Labour Market
Global regulation
1
24
3
Politics
• Global adoption of a level of wellfare state (OMT/OMC)• Upper limits (Max) on salary bandwidth• If we do not regulate it .… we will get proteccionism (by zones)
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My own perspective
Expanded entrepreneurship
Flexibility (to gain time)
Personal awareness
Change Managment on the
Labour Market
Global regulation
1
24
3
Politics
• Entrepreneur ≠ worker• Levels of entrepreneurship• SMES, lots of them• Eco-systems with large numbers of affiliated SMES
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A look into the future
Alibaba Publicetendering
MedicalMedia- Center?
RoboticsNeurosurgeon
ProductMetadata
Repositories …
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Bibliography
1. “The Shift”, Lynda Gratton, 2011, Hapercollins
2. “The new division of labour”, F. Levy and R. Murnane, 2004, Princeton Press
3. “The singularity is near”, R. Kurtzweil, 2009
4. “The future of work”, T. Malone, 2004, Harvard Press
5. “Employment: a fix that functions”, R. Atkin, M. Steinglass, 04/08/2011, Financial Times
6. “The age of specialization”, T. Malone, R. Laubacher, T. Johns, July-August 2011, Harvard Business Review
7. “Special Report: The future of jobs”, The Economist, September 10th 2011
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