Subsidies for a better Labour Market

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Subsidies for a better Labour Market

António Murta

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2

Agenda

1- Introduction

2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model

3- The impact of technology

4- Demographics and longevity

5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts?

6- My own perspective

7- A look into the future


3

Introduction

AS-IS Labour Market

TO-BE Labour Market

Regulatory pressures

Individual awarenessThe forces

that shape it

Challenge: what can we do to make the labour market a better one?


4

The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model

Social change

Technology

GlobalizationLabour Market

Energy resources Demographics and longevity

5

1

2

4 3


5


Social change

Technology



5

1

2

4 3

• Cloud services/ PAAS• Convergence (Digital)• High added-value automation• Internet of Things: quantum digital leap


6


Social change

Technology



5

1

2

4 3

• 24x7• $: old-rich → new-rich• Education powerhouses: China + India• Urbanization ↑


7


Social change

Technology


Energy resourcesDemographics and longevity

51

2

4 3

• Words population growth ↑↑ (!)• Demographic paterns of the old-rich ↓• Longevity ↑• Wellfare state = non-sustainable in the present form


8


Social change

Technology



51

2

4 3

• Energy prices ↑• Sustainability emerging as a key trend• Need for a massive transformation of the energy value chain


9


Social change

Technology



51

2

43

• Role of women as leaders• Lack of trust on institutions (including democracy)• Family (reinvented)• Growing social awareness


10

The impact of technology

Man – machine divide line and the effect of innovation (over time) on it

The effect of innovation over time+

-

-

+

Man – machine divide line

Man Territory

MachineTerritory

Cost of human labour

• Kurtzweil: singularity = 2045?


11


Cloud services: creation of a truly global labour market

P1 P1

P2

input output input output

• Location does not matter (customer, worker)• Virtual value chains• Quality = Y (costs, levels of service)


12


Unified Umbrella brand and digital interface

VOICE DATA INTERNET TV MOVIES

MUSIC MAGAZINES BOOKS TICKETS HOME CONTROL

ENERGY SECURITY WELL BEING HEALTH CARE EXPENSES

Digital convergence: 3-Play 20-Play(from Telco to Digital Distribution)


13

Demographics and longevity

7 Billion people

9 Billion people

2010 2050

Simply the biggest threat that we all face

!!!Earth

Earth


14

Demographics and longevity

The European wellfare state is not sustainable anymore….

• No growth or limited growth

• Demographics working against it

• Implications on immigration policy

• Danger of generational clashes(David Willets =2030?)


15

What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts?

SHIFT 1

SHIFT2

SHIFT3

From generalist to expert (IP Focus)

From isolated competition to active networker

From unbalanced consumer to passionate producer


16

My own perspective

Flexibility (to gain time)

Personal awareness

Change Management on the

Labour Market

Global regulation

1

24

3

Politics

How can we diminuish the risks of isolation/ Social

exlusion?

Expanded entrepreneurship


17

My own perspective



Personal awareness

Change Managment on the

Labour Market

Global regulation

1

24

3

Politics

• Gerhard Schroder• Protection of employment• Attitude change: entrepreneurs + workers• You can only do it if you can fund it (previous savings)!


18

My own perspective



Personal awareness


Labour Market

Global regulation

1

24

3

Politics

• Continuous education• To save for the end of the life (back to history)• Work for a longer total time• Opportunities for the seniors


19

My own perspective



Personal awareness


Labour Market

Global regulation

1

24

3

Politics

• Global adoption of a level of wellfare state (OMT/OMC)• Upper limits (Max) on salary bandwidth• If we do not regulate it .… we will get proteccionism (by zones)


20

My own perspective



Personal awareness


Labour Market

Global regulation

1

24

3

Politics

• Entrepreneur ≠ worker• Levels of entrepreneurship• SMES, lots of them• Eco-systems with large numbers of affiliated SMES


21

A look into the future

Alibaba Publicetendering

MedicalMedia- Center?

RoboticsNeurosurgeon

ProductMetadata

Repositories …


22

Bibliography

1. “The Shift”, Lynda Gratton, 2011, Hapercollins

2. “The new division of labour”, F. Levy and R. Murnane, 2004, Princeton Press

3. “The singularity is near”, R. Kurtzweil, 2009

4. “The future of work”, T. Malone, 2004, Harvard Press

5. “Employment: a fix that functions”, R. Atkin, M. Steinglass, 04/08/2011, Financial Times

6. “The age of specialization”, T. Malone, R. Laubacher, T. Johns, July-August 2011, Harvard Business Review

7. “Special Report: The future of jobs”, The Economist, September 10th 2011

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Subsidies for a better Labour Market