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Energy price outlook 2020

2020能源价格预测

ISSUE 44 WINTER 2017

Internet of things and power generation

Next Generation in Wind Turbine Technology power generating technology

Stopping corrosion in the utility industry

物联网和发电

新一代风力发电技术

混合型发电厂的优势

EditorialNicholas [email protected] Avison – Group Editorial [email protected]

DesignerMeng Xiangwei

ChairmanKoos Tesselaar

CEOMatthew Astill

Managing DirectorAdam Soroka

Advertising DirectorMike [email protected]

Expert AdvisorTrish Meek, Director of Product StrategyThermo Fisher Scientific

POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY

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本刊说明电力行业已进入一个即将发生巨大变革的时期，技术革新和能源政策将引发变革，从而导致电力行业更加绿色环保。电网级储能、机器人和物联网技术的问世就证明了这一点，这不但在改变着我们在这一行业的运营方式和投资方式，也在改变着我们与客户的关系。

例如，世界范围内需求响应技术的推广使用，就是新的积极运营方式和电力公司与用户之间新的积极关系的例证。带来这种变化的部分原因是，在整个电力行业价值链上，用物联网技术来装配设备取得重大进展，使该行业获得较前大得多的响应能力，来管理市场需求波动。

经济适用储能的出现正在改变可再生能源的市场经济效益，其因可再生能源发电成本大幅降低而获益匪浅。这从特斯拉（Tesla）所下的大赌注可窥见一斑，特斯拉决心在百日内安装一个电网级蓄电池储能，用作一座商业风电厂的部分装配。建成后，风电厂生产的过剩电力可以先储存在蓄电池内，在南澳大利亚州电力供应紧张的高峰时段补充供应。如果特斯拉取得成功，可能有更多的可再生能源方案配有电网级储能。

技术进步除了带来的其他效益外，它也使设立能源合作社更加切合实际、更经济适用；这一趋势在欧洲和北美地区尤其如火如荼。有了技术，当地商业团体主导的项目得以建设起来，满足当地需要，并惠及其成员。在德国，一些以商务为中心的合作社将此作为控制其耗能成本的方法，在英国，其被视为获得绿色能源的途径。

另外，无人机的使用也在改变着电力行业的作业方法。在这个问题上，我们将说明无人机如何为电网建设助力，因此减少施工成本，进一步保护施工工人的安全。

我们编纂的国际专题报道和最新信息，可使您籍以洞察电力行业的未来发展。

© COPYRIGHT 2017

CAVENDISH GROUP

POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY

www.powergenerationtechnology.net www.powergenerationtechnology.net

If the latest annual State of Exploration report from

Westwood Global Energy Group can be believed, the oil

and gas industry is out of the emergency room in 2017,

but it is not yet out of hospital. Even if oil prices recover

further, explorers will need to focus on finding low cost oil and gas profitable to develop at USD40 per barrel or less.

Companies will need to believe they have the

acreage portfolio, technology, people and processes to

deliver exceptional performance. This means an efficient exploration process with larger prospect portfolios and

fewer, better wells targeting bigger prospects at higher

commercial success rates.

The industry is emerging leaner and fitter from this latest down-cycle, but it must be able to remain disciplined

during the bull oil market to come, whenever that might

be. Decreased competition means lower access costs for exploration acreage and more opportunity to create value

from exploration for the accomplished explorer.

The analysis confirms that 2016 saw a nine-year low in oil and gas exploration in both wells drilled and

discoveries made, but it expects a brighter outlook with

exploration efficiencies starting to deliver resultsThe report revealed that commercial oil and gas

volumes discovered fell as the ‘lower for longer’ oil

price scenario caused companies to reduce exploration

programmes further, with less exposure to frontier,

especially deep water, and emerging play drilling.

The diminished 19 well frontier programme delivered

only one commercial success, a modest sized gas

discovery offshore India. Frontier oil exploration continues

to fail to replenish the emerging play prospect inventory,

which is acting as a break on future oil exploration

performance.

The commercial success rate was the highest in

nine years at 35 per cent, eight percentage points higher

than 2015, with success rates improved on the lower well

count in proven plays and proportionally fewer high risk

frontier wells.

电力技术

POWER GENERATION

TECHNOLOGY

电力技术

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Energy price outlook 2020

2020能源价格预测

ISSUE 44 WINTER 2017


Next Generation in Wind Turbine Technology power generating technology

Stopping corrosion in the utility industry

物联网和发电

新一代风力发电技术

混合型发电厂的优势

CPE_Cover.indd 1 2017/12/28 20:49:35

Updates

最新信息

4 PGT news roundup. For regular up to the minute news

stories, visit http://www.powergenerationtechnology.net/

新闻综述。访问http://www.powergenerationtechnology.net/，

可以定期了解最新的新闻信息

Features

专题报道

10 A LOOK AT WIND FARM DEVELOPMENTS

Current wind turbines are taller, have longer and lighter blades

and are more productive and less costly than their predecessors.

风电厂发展展望

与前几代相比，目前风机叶片的位置更高、长度更长、重量更

轻、发电能力更强且成本更低。

14 Sustainable: Energy storage could bolster electric grid

Energy and heat are two main forms of energy that can be stored.

可持续发展：储能可助力电网发展

电能和热能是可以储存的两种主要能量形式。

16 Internet of things and power generation

Takes a look at some of the applications of the internet of things

on power generation management and distribution

物联网和发电

简述物联网在发电管理和电力配送方面的一些应用。

19 Energy Co-ops

In some countries, there are an increasing number of community-

owned independent power producers, known as energy co-ops.

能源合作社

在一些国家，被称为能源合作社的独立社区电力生产者越

来越多。

22 Demand Response

Demand response technologies that allows utilities to better

manage the supply and demand for power in real time is

increasing in response to growth in renewable power and rising

demand for efficiency.

需求响应

随着可再生能源的增长和能源效率需求的不断提高，电力公

司采用需求响应技术，以便可以更好地实时管理电力供需。

25 Hybrid power plants

A hybrid power plant combines a dependable fossil fuel such as

diesel or gas generation, with a spasmodic renewable energy source

混合型发电厂

混合型发电厂混合使用柴油或汽油这类可靠的化石燃料和间

歇性可再生能源来发电。

28 Energy Predictions for 2030

A round-up of some global energy forecasts.

能源预测

全球能源预测综述

Events

行业内重大展会

32 An essential guide to your business planning

您商务规划的重要指南

26

Contents

Don’t just survive – thrive!

我们需要生存，更需要繁荣！

4

最新消息Updates

POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY | www.cavendishgroup.cn

特斯拉正在南澳修建全球首个电网规模的电池组。特斯拉

的电池组将与法国能源公司Neoen的风电场相连。一旦

投入运营，该项目将极大地考验特斯拉的技术和埃隆·

马斯克作为创新者的声誉。

自从取消火力发电转而采用间歇性的风力发电以来，南澳大利

亚州一直被频繁的停电所困扰，原因是本地电网无法确保充足的电

源备用能力。特斯拉代表在接受路透社采访时揭露，该项目的储电

能力将达到129兆瓦时，足以满足3万多个家庭的用电需求。由此可

见，采用特斯拉的电池技术将让南澳的电网具备充足的备用电能，

防止今后出现停电。

根据与南澳签订的合约，特斯拉必须在签订合约的一百天内交

付一个100兆瓦的锂电池组。如果特斯拉未能及时交付电池，该公司

承诺将免费提供这项技术。安装完之后，这个电池组将成为全球最

大的电池组。

“许多人都在关注我们，‘他们能在100天内完成这个项目

吗？’‘这个电池组能正常供电吗？’”马斯克先生告诉南澳首府

阿德莱德的记者时这么说道。“我们会竭力保证项目的成功。”

一旦南澳政府、特斯拉、Neoen和澳大利亚能源市场运营商签

订互联协议，百天期限即开始起效。马斯克先生表示，这个项目于

2017年12月准时交付。这个电池组旨在能源短缺时充当紧急备用电

源，被安装在南澳由法国可再生能源公司Neoen运营的一个风电场

上，该风电场已经开始向当地电网供电。n

Tesla is in the process of building the world’s first grid- scale

battery in South Australia. Tesla’s batteries are being linked

with a wind farm provided by the French energy company

Neoen. Once operational, this project will prove a major test for

both the technology and Elon Musk’s reputation as an innovator.

Since phasing out coal and adopting intermittent wind

power, the state of South Australian has experienced frequent

power cuts owing to the inability of the local grid network to

ensure adequate power back-up capacity. Speaking to Reuters, a

Tesla representative reveals that the project will have 129 MWh

of storage capacity, sufficient to light some 30,000 homes. The

adoption of Tesla’s battery technology should, therefore, enable

South Australia’s power grid to have sufficient back-up power and

prevent future power cuts.

The contract with South Australia requires Tesla to deliver a

hundred megawatt lithium ion battery within a hundred days of

the contract being signed. Should Tesla fail to deliver on time,

it promises to provide the technology free. Once installed, the

battery will be the world is largest of its type.

“There will be a lot of people that will look at this, ‘did they get

it done within 100 days?’ Did it work?’” Mr Musk told reporters in

South Australia’s capital city of Adelaide. “We are going to make

sure it does.”

Since then the hundred-day deadline has been activated, after

a connectivity agreement was reached between the South Australia

government, Telsa, Neoen and the Australian Energy Market

Operator. Mr Musk has delivered the project on time in December

2017. The battery, designed to provide emergency back-up power

if a shortfall in energy were predicted, is built next to a wind farm

operated by the French energy company Neoen in South Australia

where it has started to provide power to the local grid.

Tesla Enables Sustainable Energy in South Australia

特斯拉让南澳获得可持续能源

5POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY | www.cavendishgroup.cn

Updates最新消息

总部设在瑞士的仪表技术领先提供商兰吉尔

（Landis+Gyr）于2017年9月宣布，该公司赢得了一项

合同，向塔塔电力德里配电有限公司（Tata Power-

DDL）提供200,000只单相和三相智能电表，后者在印度联邦首府德

里有160万用户。

在拿下上述合同前，兰吉尔于2017年年初与Tata power-DDl签

订合同，向后者提供印度第一批由50万个端点组成的无线覆盖先进

电表基础设施（AMI）。AMI包括智能电表及相关基础设施，规模宏

大，将为Tata Power-DDL客户获得智能能源革命所带来的益处而提

供便利条件。

在最近一项合同签署前，兰吉尔与Tata Power-DDL合作设立了首

个示范工程，目的是在整个工程开展前获得相关监管部门的批准。

Tata Power-DDL首席执行官兼董事总经理PraveerSinha表

示：“我们致力于向北德里的客户提供最先进的AMI技术和解决方

案。我们与兰吉尔就印度第一个大型智能电表和无线波覆盖部署的

合作，全部覆盖Tata Power-DDL 150平方公里的运营面积，是我们

为将智能电网技术引入印度而努力的重要里程碑。此部署不仅可使

客户利用双向通信系统，还助力我们建设一个真正的智能电网——

世界水平的电力配送基础设施——打下重要基础。”

在谈到对用户的主要优势时，兰吉尔亚太地区执行副总裁Ellie

Doyle表示：“智能电表和AMI给终端客户带来很多利益，其中包括

为能源消费者线上计费及开通网上支付系统。”n

Landis+Gyr & Tata Power-DDL Partner to Deploy

Smart Metering Infrastructure in Delhi

兰吉尔和Tata Power-DDL Partner合作在德里部署智能电表基础设施

Landis+Gyr, a leading Swiss- based provider of meter

technology, announced in September 2017, that it had won

a contract to supply 200,000 single phase and three phase

smart metres to Tata Power Delhi Distribution Ltd (Tata Power-

DDL), a power distribution company with 1.6 million customers

in Delhi, the federal capital of India.

This is in addition to winning a contract in early 2017 from

Tata power-DDl, to supply India’s first advanced metering

infrastructure (AMI) with radio frequency canopy, comprising

half a million endpoints. The AMI, consisting of smart meters

and related infrastructure is significant in size and will provide

the foundations for Tata Power-DDL’s customers to obtain the

benefits of the smart energy revolution.

Before this latest contract was awarded, Landis+Gyr working

with Tata Power-DDL, had set up a pilot project in order to obtain

relevant regulatory approvals before full project rollout.

Praveer Sinha, CEO and MD of Tata Power-DDL, stated, “we

are dedicated to bringing state- of –the- art AMI technology

and solutions to our customers in North Delhi. Our work with

Landis+Gyr on India’s first, large scale, smart meter and RF canopy

deployment, which covers the full 510 square kilometers of Tata

Power-DDL’s area of operation, marks a significant step in our

efforts to bring smart grid technology to India. This deployment

will not only empower our consumers by utilizing a two-way

communication system, but it will also help us to build an

important foundation for a truly smart grid, featuring world class

power distribution infrastructure.”

Outlining the advantages for customers, Ellie Doyle,

Landis+Gyr’s Executive Vice President of APAC, said, “smart

metering and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) can bring

so many benefits to the end customer, including online billing and

payment systems for energy consumers“

6 POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY | www.cavendishgroup.cn

Updates 最新消息

西门子正在开发全球首款使用酯类绝缘液的移相变压器。

西门子在变压器开发方面有悠久且骄人的历史，移相变

压器的开发使它又向前迈进了一步。移相变压器是能够

在复杂电网中进行负载流量管理及电网资产优化的专用变压器。可

再生能源发电对电网的影响越来越大，导致对供电负荷预测的难度

也越来越大。由于需要在不损害电网稳定性和灵活性的前提下减少

电路超载，市场对移相变压器的需求不断增加。

在人口密集的市区，尤其需要电网运营安全可靠。不过，安装

在这类地区的变压器需要极其安静。而且，他们在运作时也要极其

安静和环保。

为满足上述要求，西门子发明了首款移相变压器，这种变压器

使用酯类绝缘液替代白油。酯类绝缘液为有机、无毒绝缘液，可生

物降解，燃点极高。

结果，这使西门子能够在市区安装其最新发明的移相变压器。

2017年9月西门子宣布，正在为美国东海岸某市制造一台

138/138 KV移相变压器。这台移相变压器一旦安装后，它将管理电

力潮流并迅速调整影响电网的电力需求。

这台60赫兹300 MVA移相变压器的相位角为± 20°，并且在一个

箱体中有两个器身装置。

其整体设计确保电网在高度超载时安全可靠地运营。最大噪音

只有73分贝，仅稍高于洗衣机的标准噪音水平。预计这台移相变压

器将于年底交付给客户。n

Siemens is developing the world’s first

phase shifting transformer with ester

insulation liquid. This is the next step

by Siemens in its long and proud history of

transformer development. Phase shifters

are special transformers that enable cost-

effective load flow management and grid

asset optimisation in complex grids. The

growing impact of renewables on the grid

is resulting in an increasingly unpredictable

supply load. The demand by the market

for phase shifters continues to increase,

as circuit overloads need to be reduced

without compromising grid stability and

flexibility.

In densely populated urban areas, the

Siemens to develop world’s first phase-shifting

transformer with ester insulation fluid

西门子开发世界首款使用酯类绝缘液的移相变压器

need for safe and reliable grid operations is especially necessary.

However, such transformers that are to be installed in such areas

need to be extremely quiet. In addition, they need to be extremely

quiet and eco-friendly in their operations.

To satisfy these requirements, Siemens has come up with the

first phase shifter that is filled with ester oil instead of mineral

oil. Ester oil is organic based; non-toxic insulating liquid is

biodegradable with an extremely high flash point.

As a result, this enables Siemens to install its latest phase

shifter innovation in urban areas.

Siemens has announced in September 2017, that it is

manufacturing a 138/138 KV (kilovolt) phase shifter, for an East

Coast city of the United States. Once installed, it will manage the

power flow and rapidly adjust fluctuations in the power demand

affecting the power grid.

The 60 Hz 300 MVA (Mega Volt Amp) unit will feature a ± 20°

phase angle and will have two active plants in one tank.

The entire design ensures a high overload rating safe and

reliable operation and the maximum noise level of only 73(A),

which is only a little more than the noise level standard washing

machine. It is expected that this device delivered to customer at

the end of the year.


Updates最新消息

输电线路施工是项复杂且经常面临危险的任务。吊线——

将一根结实但质轻的缆绳送上去并固定到杆塔上——是

一项危险任务，常由直升机或工人攀到杆塔上来完成。

为了响应某电力公司提出的采用直接方法的要求，传感器系统

和云技术应用开发商Sharper Shape与无人机服务提供商SkySkopes

合作开发了Sharper A6 UAS（无人机系统）无人机。

为完成一项为675 kV线路进行吊线的施工工程，一家电力公司

主动寻求新的解决方案。Sharper Shape电厂事业部董事Paul Frey

解释道：“这家电力公司最初寻求帮助时，有许多未知因素。作

为一个工作团队，我们团结在一起，开发了实验方案，并执行了飞

行试验。我们进行了五次试飞，来测验将缆线穿过每个塔相，控

制‘PAC Man’并将缆线固定在中央放线滑轮上等多个相关目标能否

完成。”SkySkopes首席执行官Matt Dunlevy表示：“这个实践案例

表明，除了基本检查以外，在电力行业的许多应用中无人机是安全

有效的选择方案。”

这个案例展示了，无人机在简化吊线中几个重复固定缆绳的复

杂操作程序方面的应用价值，同样重要的是，其降低了施工工人受

伤的风险。Dunlevy表示：“这是无人机应用理念的一个很好的证

明——因为我们证明了，无人机可以把外侧缆线和中间缆线从杆塔

中相的中央穿过来。”

SkySkopes的无人机驾驶员训练有素，能使远程控制无人机来执

行困难的任务。他们常常操纵先进的重型多旋翼飞机，在不能实行

自动化的条件下精准地作业。

另外，在无人机上运用Sharper A6传感器组件，可提供自动分

析和可执行数据，有助于降低数百英里输配线路的检查成本。n

Transmission line construction is a complex and often-

dangerous task. Sock pulling, the dangerous task of flying

a strong and lightweight rope and attaching it to the

towers, is typically performed by helicopters or by workers

climbing pylons.

In response to a direct approach from a utility, Sharper Shape,

a developer of sensors systems and cloud- based applications and

SkySkopes, a provider of drone services, have jointly developed

the Sharper A6 UAS(unmanned aircraft systems) drone.

A utility, faced with stringing sock lines for a 675 kV line

construction project took the initiative in seeking a new approach.

Paul Frey, Director – Electric Utilities for Sharper Shape, explains:

“when the utility first reached out there were lots of unknowns.

Working as a team, we pulled together, developing a test plan, and

executing the flights. We ran five test flights to test a number of

objectives related to pulling the line through each of the tower

phases, triggering the “PAC Man” and setting the line on the

center pulley. ” Matt Dunlevy, CEO SkySkopes, states, “this use-case

highlights how drones are a safe and an effective option for many

applications in the utility industry beyond basic inspections.”

This case has demonstrated the value of drones in eliminating

the complex process of sock- pulling, which consisted of several

steps of re-attaching the rope, and equally important reducing

the risk of injury for construction crews. “This is a great proof of

concept for unmanned aircraft because we proved that they can

string both the outboard lines and the center line through the

middle of the center phase of a tower” said Dunlevy.

SkySkopes’ drone pilots are trained to remotely control

the drones for missions that are difficult in nature, often flying

advanced heavy-lift multirotor aircraft with precision where

automation is impractical.

In addition, using the Sharper A6 sensor package on the

drone, provides automated analysis and actionable data which

helps reduce the cost of inspecting miles of transmission and

distribution lines.

Sharper Shape and SkySkopes Successfully

Execute First Transmission Line Cable

Construction Mission using Drones

Sharper Shape和SkySkopes首次成功利用无

人机完成输电线路电缆施工任务



在德国西南部的460万名Netze BW公司客户成为ABB创新型

生态高效AirPlus气体的首批受益者，Netze BW公司的

31台开关柜中，有8台采用了这种新型气体。AirPlus气

体源于氟酮混合气体，与传统的强温室气体六氟化硫(SF6)相比，它

的全球变暖潜能值极低(GWP < 1)，可以忽略不计。

“我们很高兴能成为AirPlus在德国的第一个用户，并且有机

会与ABB合作建立这个试点工厂，通过这次合作我们能积累更多的

经验，同时为未来的运营收集必要的数据。”Netze BW电网专家

Marcel Engel表示，“以前Netze BW使用的是SF6气体绝缘开关柜，

使用时必须极度小心。”

对于Netze BW公司而言，引入AirPlus技术只需要对现有的开关

柜的设计稍作修改，而且Netze BW的客户对AirPlus技术的初步反馈

非常正面。Netze BW公司技术总监Martin Konermann博士表示：“

为了支持德国在2050年实现温室气体排放(GHG)的减排承诺，我们非

常重视对环境无害的电力供应。”他继续补充说，“我们也在尝试

将技术创新应用于标准电气设备。”

Netze BW将AirPlus气体与ABB的ZX2 AirPlus开关柜结合使

用，ZX2是一种专为初次配电设计的开关柜，旨在确保电网的可靠

性、高效率和安全性。ZX2开关柜符合国际电气技术委员会(IEC)的最

高36kV标准要求，短路电流为31.5kA，额定电流为2000A。ZX2为断路

器和母线提供了单独的气体舱室，适合单母线或双母线的应用。

AirPlus系列产品还包括ABB的SafeRing二级配电环网柜(RMU)，

本产品符合IEC规定的24kV最高电压标准，短路电流为16ka，额定电

流为630A。AirPlus SafeRing于2016年夏季推出，充分显示了RMU技

术在上述电压水平条件下的卓越突破。n

Netze BW’s, 4.6 million customers

in south-west Germany are

beneficiaries of the incorporation

of ABB’s innovative eco-efficient AirPlus

formula in eight of Netze BW 31 switchgear

panels. The AirPlus formula is derived

from a fluoroketone gas mixture, that has

negligible global warming potential (GWP

<1) as compared to traditional sulphur

hexafluoride (SF6), which is a potent

greenhouse gas.

Marcel Engel, Netze BW Grid expert,

stated that “we are delighted to be the

first user of AirPlus in Germany and to have

the opportunity to build this pilot facility in

partnership with ABB, where we can gain more

experience and gather essential data for future

operations. “ Previously Netze BW had used

SF6 gas-insulated switchgears, which had to

German utility gives green light to AirPlus

德国公用事业公司首用AirPlus环保型开关柜

be handled with extreme care.

For Netze BW, the introduction of AirPlus technology,

required only small modifications to existing switchgear

design and initial feedback from Netze BW customers

on the AirPlus technology has been positive. Dr Martin

Konermann, Netze BW’s Director of Technology, commented

that , “we place great value on an environmentally sound

supply of electricity, in order to support Germany’s

commitment to make the country largely greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions-neutral by 2050. “ He adds, “We are also

attempting to apply technological innovations to standard

electrical equipment.”

Netze BW is using the AirPlus formula in conjunction with

ABB’s ZX2 AirPlus switchgear, designed for primary power

distribution, which helps to ensure grid reliability, efficiency and

safety. The ZX2 is available in an International Electro Technical

Commission (IEC) rating of up to 36 kV, with 31.5 kA short-

circuit and 2,000 A nominal current. It features individual gas

compartments for the circuit breaker and busbars, for either single

or double busbar applications.

The AirPlus range also includes ABB’s SafeRing secondary

distribution ring main unit (RMU), available in IEC ratings up to 24

kV, with 16 kA short-circuit and 630 A nominal current. Launched

in summer 2016, the AirPlus SafeRing represents a technology

breakthrough for a RMU at this voltage level.


Updates最新消息

GE Power win another South Asian gas power

plant contract

GE Power再次拿下订单，为即将由ShapoorjiPallonji

Group（SP Group）在孟加拉国Bhola开发的220 MW双燃料联合

循环发电厂提供电厂技术。作为工程成套设备（EEP）的一部

分，Bhola电厂将使用通用的F级燃气轮机。

这将是通用在Bhola提供服务的第二个电厂，第一个具同样容量

的电厂于2015年试运营。第二个合同的宣布维持了通用在为南亚电

力客户提供创新技术和先进设备方面的区域领导地位，巩固了通用

在印度、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡已经建立的客户基础。通用南亚燃气

电力系统首席执行官Deepesh Nanda表示：“通用的技术优势和在

南亚的当地的办事处使我们在满足该地区客户需求方面处于领先地

位。”

这笔订单是独立电力生产商SP Group为提高孟加拉国电力生产

能力所做的部分努力。GE Power将为该工程提供全套的工程成套设

备，包括两台6F.03燃气轮机、两台热回收蒸汽发生器（HRSG）、

一台蒸汽涡轮发电机、冷凝器和联合控制系统。通用还将在工程安

装阶段提供技术专业知识。Bhola电厂一旦建成，将成为通用重型

6F.03燃气涡轮机的领头舰，有先进的气路，实现只有在大容量电厂

中才可见的高效率、高灵活性和高可靠性。

SP Group已与孟加拉电力发展委员会签订了为期22年的电力购

买协议。Bhola电厂的运营利用双燃料技术，以天然气为主，柴油

备用，预计于2019年12月实现商业运营。这项工程将为孟加拉国

200,000个家庭提供充足的电力供应。n

GE Power has won an order

to supply power plant

technology for the upcoming

220 MW duel-fuel Combined Cycle

Power Plant to be developed by the

Shapoorji Pallonji Group (SP Group)

at Bhola in Bangladesh. The Bhola

power plant will use GE’s F-class

gas turbines as part of engineered

equipment package (EEP).

This will be GE’s second power

plant in Bhola of the same capacity

with the first being commissioned in

2015. The announcement continues

GE’s regional leadership in delivering

innovative technologies and state-

of-the-art equipment to its power

generation customers in South Asia,

GE Power再次赢得南亚燃气发电厂合同

firming GE’s installed base in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

“GE’s technology advantage and local presence in South Asia

gives us an edge in addressing the needs of our customers in the

region,” said Deepesh Nanda, CEO of GE’s Gas Power Systems in

South Asia.

This order is part of Independent Power Producer SP Group’s

efforts to improve Bangladesh power generation capacity. GE

Power will supply the full suite of engineered equipment package

(EEP) for the project, including two 6F.03 gas turbines, two heat

recovery steam generators (HRSG), one steam turbine generator,

condenser and associated control systems. GE will also provide

technical expertise during the installation phase of the project.

Once completed, Bhola power plant will be the fleet leader for GE’s

heavy-duty 6F.03 gas turbine with advance gas path, delivering

higher levels of efficiency, flexibility and reliability typically only

seen in large capacity power plants.

The SP Group has signed a 22-year Power Purchase Agreement

with Bangladesh Power Development Board. The power plant will

operate on duel-fuel technology, making using natural gas as the

primary fuel, and diesel as back up, and is expected to achieve

commercial operations by December 2019. This project will supply

sufficient power for 200,000 homes in Bangladesh.

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English Eybrow

自从Dong Energy于2007年以150英镑/兆瓦小时的成本完

成其在爱尔兰海的Burbo Bank项目一期以来，英国的风

电容量增长了一倍。与前几代相比，目前风机叶片的位

置更高、长度更长、重量更轻、发电能力更强且成本更低。

设计、材料和制造技术的改进及物联网技术的应用，使风机较

前更加智能化。结果，海上风力成本下降至85英镑/兆瓦小时以下，

低于欣克利角（Hinckley Point）核电站计划的92.50英镑/兆瓦小

时。正是上述因素加强了对英国海上风电的预期增长。来自工业集

团Renewable UK的Emma Pincheck预计：“我们预计英国海上风电容

量将快速增长，到2020年将从目前的5 GW增长至10 GW，维持我们在

全球的领先地位。”

风电厂发展展望Wind power capacity in the UK has doubled since Dong

Energy completed the first phase of its Burbo Bank project

in the Irish Sea in 2007 at a cost of £150 per megawatt

hour. Current wind turbines are taller, have longer and lighter blades

and are more productive and less costly than their predecessors.

Wind turbines are smarter as a result of improvements in design and

materials, manufacturing techniques and the application of Internet

of Things technology . Consequently, offshore wind costs have fallen

below £85 per megawatt hour compared with £92.50 for the proposed

Hinkley Point nuclear power station. It is factors such as these, which

underpin the expected rise in offshore wind in the UK. Emma Pincheck,

from industry group Renewable UK, predicts that “we’re set to see a

rapid expansion in the UK’s offshore wind capacity, doubling from 5

gigawatts now to 10 GW by 2020, maintaining our global leadership.”

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES

WIND TURBINE BLADES

Turbine blades account for between 30 to 40 percent of the

A LOOK AT WIND FARM DEVELOPMENTS

11

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先进技术

风机叶片

风机叶片约占海上风电厂总投资的30%至40%。减少叶片成本并

提高其效能是叶片研究和制造的“圣杯”。其中，方法之一是制造

更大但重量更轻的叶片，以便减少作用于其他组件如动力传动系统

上的空气动力和地心引力，同时减少材料成本。美国通用电气公司

丹麦子公司艾尔姆风能叶片制品有限公司（LM Wind Power）就是个

很好的案例。该公司利用独特的碳纤维、玻璃纤维及其他混合材料

制造出世界上重量最轻、长度最长（达300英尺（88.4米））的风机

叶片。这些巨型叶片目前被安装在美国罗德岛对岸的Block Island

海上风电厂。

另外一个方法是设计——借助于较新的3D打印技术的指引。

在美国能源部风电水电技术办公室（Wind and Water Power

Technologies Office）主任Jose Zayas表示：“我们在识别制造成

本的情况下保留能改进叶片设计灵活性的方案。”另外，包括橡树

岭国家实验室（Oak Ridge National Laboratory）在内的美国研究

所正在研究3D打印能否真正制造风机叶片模具，使减少成本、缩短

模具制造时间成为可能。

total investment in offshore wind farms. Reducing their cost and

increasing their efficiency is the Holy Grail of blade research and

manufacture. One approach, is to make bigger but lighter blades, in

order to reduce aerodynamic and gravity forces on other components

such as the drivetrain and reduce material costs. A good example, is

that of General Electric’s Danish subsidiary LM Wind Power, which

manufactures the lightest and longest wind turbine blades in the

world at 300 feet (88.4 meters) from a unique blend of carbon and

glass fibre and other materials. These enormous blades are currently

being installed at the Block Island offshore wind farm off the coast

of Rhode Island in the United States.

Another approach is design- led with the help of the

relatively new technology of 3D printing. In the US, Jose Zayas,

director of the US Department of Energy’s Wind and Water

Power Technologies Office says “we’re identifying cost and

saving options with manufacturing blades while improving their

design flexibility.” In addition, US research institutes including,

the Oak Ridge National Laboratory are investigating whether 3D

printing can actually make turbine blade moulds which offers

the prospect of reduced costs and mould manufacture time.

Over the last 30 years, blades have grown 15 times in size

– able to harvest more energy than ever. The first commercial

wind turbines had a capacity of 30 kW with 5 m rotor blades.

By comparison, today’s Siemens 8 MW wind turbines feature a

75 m blade, a number that corresponds to the wingspan of an

A380 airplane. This results in a rotor diameter of 154 m.

An innovative approach, employed by Sandia National

Laboratories, uses Segmented Ultralight Morphing Rotor (SUMR)

technology load- alignment, to see if that could reduce peak

stress and fatigue on rotor blades and make such a gigantic blade

feasible. In order to achieve this, the blades must be segmented,

in order to adjust to the strength and direction of the wind, and

reduce mechanical stresses without losing stiffness. For instance,

in high winds, the SUMR blades are stowed and align with the

wind direction so that they are less exposed to cantilever force

damage. In low winds, the blades fan out for greatest wind

energy harvesting. Professor Eric Loth of the University of

Virginia eloquently illustrates the blade’s action as follows: “like

a flower, the petals are spread out, and we reach out and grab

as much wind as we can. When winds blow with hurricane force

the blades would contract, almost like a claw.”

SMART WIND TURBINES

The integration of internet of things technologies including,

‘connected’ embedded sensors and data processing algorithms,

is producing smart turbines, able to adjust to different strengths

of wind and changes in direction. “This adaptive ability is a

game-changer because it allows the turbine to maximise the

power it produces, while ensuring the reliability of the turbine

is maintained,” says Douglas Adams, professor of mechanical

过去30年来，叶片长度增加了15倍——能够捕获的能量比以前

任何时候都多。第一批商用风力涡轮机容量为30千瓦，转子叶片长5

米。相比之下，现今西门子8MW风力涡轮机叶片长75米，相当于A380

飞机翼展的长度，相应地转子直径长154米。

桑迪亚国家实验室（Sandia National Laboratories）的一项

创新方法，利用分段超轻变形风轮（SUMR）技术负载校准，来研究

其是否可以减少作用于转子叶片上的峰值应力和疲劳破坏力并使这

种巨型叶片切实可行。为达此目标，叶片必须分段，以便随着风力

和风向的变化来校准，在损坏硬度的情况下减少机械应力。比如，

在风力很大时，分段超轻变形风轮叶片收起，与风向保持一致，这

样能减少叶片受悬臂力损伤的风险。在风力小时，叶片张开，最大

限度地捕获风能。

“这种校准能力改变了游戏规

则，因为它允许涡轮机最大限

度地生产电能，同时确保涡轮

机的可靠性得到维持。”

——普渡大学机械工程教授

Douglas Adams



engineering at Purdue University.

Greater experience of wind farms has improved

understanding of the importance of location and performance.

Research has demonstrated that wind turbine’s placed

downwind of nearby installations can be adversely affected by

being in the aerodynamic wake of upstream turbines. Therefore,

“understanding the evolution of the wind turbine wakes within

the wind plant, and its dependence on the atmospheric stability

and turbulence, are keys to improving performance and reducing

the cost of energy in the coming years,” states, Shreyas Ananthan,

wind program aerodynamicist for the UK’s Department of

Energy. Furthermore, connected devices in the wind turbine can

help reduce damaging structural loads to equipment and predict

the best time for preventative maintenance.

Constructing a unified digitized wind farm enables better

management and co-ordination of individual turbines thereby

reducing turbulence and increasing productivity, whilst

advanced computer modelling enables operators to reduce

aerodynamic problems and maximise the turbine’s ability to

capture wind power. Advanced technology and sophisticated

blade design and manufacturing techniques have overseen a

revolutionary reduction in the cost of wind power.

弗吉尼亚大学教授Eric Loth将叶片的动作生动地阐明为：“如

花的花瓣绽放一样，叶片展开以最大限度地捕获风能，当出现飓风

时，叶片收缩成爪子状。”

智能风机

包括“连接”嵌入型感应器和数据处理算法的物联网技术的应

用，可生产智能涡轮机，能够根据风力的不同和风向变动进行校

准。普渡大学机械工程教授Douglas Adams说：“这种校准能力改变

了游戏规则，因为它允许涡轮机最大限度地生产电能，同时确保涡

轮机的可靠性得到维持。”

随着风电厂办厂经验的积累，人们越来越理解位置选择和风机

性能的重要性。研究显示，风机放置在附近装置的下风，由于处在

上风风机产生的尾迹涡流中，可能受到负面影响。因此，英国能源

部风电项目空气动力学家Shreyas Ananthan表示：“了解风电厂内

风机尾际涡流的演变，对大气稳定性及紊流的依赖，对将来提高风

机性能、减少能源成本至关重要。”再者，风机中连接的装置不但

有助于减少对设备有害的结构负荷，还有利于预测预防性维修的最

佳时间点。

建设一体化的数字化风电厂有助于各个涡轮机之间的协调和管

理，由此减少紊流，提高生产力；同时，先进的计算机制模可使运

营商减少空气动力问题，将涡轮机捕获风能的能力最大化。先进技

术和精湛的叶片设计及制造工艺已革命性地降低了风电成本。n

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Lux Research表示，截至2050年，全球固定式能源市场可达28

亿美元，相比市值达500亿美元的电动车市场，其市场规模仍

然不大。引领固定式能源应用的是住宅应用。受太阳能电力

并网推动，住宅应用标志着固定式储能应用的最大商机——市场规

模将从目前的不足1亿美元跃升至2020年的12亿美元。

储能形式

市场上存在多种储能形式，包括化石储能、机械储能、以及热

化学储能。下文简要描述储能市场最新动态。

在南澳大利亚州，特斯拉（Telsla）正在为该州安装容量为

129兆瓦小时的锂离子电池储能装置，竣工后，其容量将为世界最

大。这座电池储能装置建在詹姆斯镇附近，位于该州的中北部，将

According to Lux Research, the stationary global energy

market is likely to reach some $2.8 billion by 2050;

this is small in comparison to the electric vehicle

market, which is set to reach $50 billion. Residential leads

stationary applications. Driven by solar integration, residential

represents the biggest opportunity in stationary energy storage

applications – leaping from less than $0.1 billion to $1.2 billion

in 2020.

Types of energy storage

There are many types of energy storage on the market;

these include fossil, mechanical, thermal and chemical storage.

Generally, when one thinks of energy storage, one usually thinks of batteries, in fact, there are many technologies available on the market including pumped storage hydro, thermochemical storage and batteries. Energy and heat are two main forms of energy that can be stored. Whatever the energy, energy is stored for a variety of reasons including to surplus power, for later use, or for trading purposes.

Sustainable: Energy storage could bolster electric grid

可持续电力：储能可支持电网稳定

提到储能，人们一般最常想到蓄电池。事实上，市面上存在多种储能技术，抽水储能装置、热化学储能装置和蓄电池就是其中的几种。其中两种主要的储能形式是能和热。无论什么能量，储能的原因有多种，其中包括电力过剩、以备后用、以及为赚取差价。



Here is a snap shot of recent developments.

In South Australia, Telsla is installing a 129MWh the South

Australian lithium ion battery, which will become the largest

in the world. The battery will be built near Jamestown, in the

state’s mid-north, and will be paired with Neoen’s Hornsdale

windfarm to provide stability for renewable power being fed

into the grid. Elon Muck has been reported by the Guardian

March 2017, it would help stabilise the grid and help bring

down prices for consumers. The lithium ion batteries Tesla are

using makeup 94.2% of energy storage systems installed in Q2

2017 in the US. The rest used flow batteries at 5% and the

rest used reports the A recent edition of GTM Research and

the Energy Storage Association’s jointly-published US Energy

Storage Monitor, which gives quarterly updates on deployment

figures, notable projects, market design and policies, found

94.2% of energy storage systems installed in Q2 2017 in the US

used lithium batteries. Around 5% of the remainder were flow

battery projects and a further 0.5% used lead acid.

In California, Google is planning a prototype energy storage

project using molten salt. Researchers working at the ‘moon-

shot’ lab of Google’s parent company Alphabet want to store

renewable energy using salt - and they’ve codenamed the

plans ‘Malta’. Once proven it aims to provide anew solution for

storing surplus energy now currently wasted. For example, in

the first half of 2017, California wasted 300,000 MW of energy

produced by solar panels and wind farms, while China wasted

17 per cent of its energy produced, according to Bloomberg

New Energy Finance.

In Germany, pumped storage hydro, along established

technology continues to be used. It is a type of hydroelectric

energy storage used by electric power systems for load balancing.

The method stores energy in the form of gravitational potential

energy of water, pumped from a lower elevation reservoir to a

higher elevation. Low-cost surplus off-peak electric power is

used to run the pumps. During periods of high demand, the

stored water is released through turbines to produce electric

power. Although the losses of the pumping process makes the

plant a net consumer of energy overall, the system increases

revenue by selling more electricity during periods of peak

demand, when electricity prices are highest. Pumped-storage

hydroelectricity allows energy from intermittent renewables,

or excess electricity from continuous base-load sources (such

as coal or nuclear) to be saved for periods of higher demand.

That so-called pumped storage requires the right geography.

In Germany a redundant coal mine in the German state of

North Rhine-Westphalia is being turned into a 200 MW facility

reports the Guardian March 2017.

Making use of hydrogen created from using excess power

from wind or solar would drive electrolysis, separating water

into its component hydrogen and oxygen elements. The

配合Neoen的Hornsdale风电厂，提高其可再生电力并网的稳定性。

《卫报》2017年3月对Elon Muck的进展做了报道。报道称，该储能

装置有助于稳定电网，使消费者享受优惠电价。在2017年第二季美

国安装的储能系统中，特斯拉所使用的锂离子电池储能装置占比达

94.2%。其他所使用的液流电池占5%。GTM Research和美国储能联盟

（Energy Storage Association）联合发布的最新一期美国储能监

测报告（US Energy Storage Monitor）表示，2017年第二季度，美

国安装的储能系统94.2%使用锂电池，余下的约5%为液流电池项目，

还有0.5%使用铅酸电池。美国储能监测报告为季度性刊物，报道能

源市场最新的装机数据、大型能源项目、市场设计及能源政策。

在加利福尼亚州，谷歌正计划利用熔盐来组建储能项目样机。

在谷歌母公司Alphabet ‘moon-shot’实验室工作的研究人员，打

算用盐来储存可再生能源——他们将该计划的代码命名为“Malta”

。一旦获得验证，其目标是为目前浪费的过剩能源提供新的储能方

案。以2017年上半年为例，彭博新能源财经报道，加利福尼亚州浪

费了300,000兆瓦太阳能和风电生产的能量，另外，中国这一比例更

是为17%。

在德国，抽水储能技术仍和其他传统技术一起使用。电力系统

使用这种水电储能，旨在负载平衡。这种储能方法以水的引力势能

的形式储存能量，将水从低位水库抽到高位水库。水泵用的是非高

峰时段低成本过剩电力。在需求高峰时段，通过涡轮机释放存水产

生电力。尽管抽水过程使用电力，让电厂成为了能源的净消耗者，

但是通过在需求高峰时段以最高电价销售更多电力，电厂使用该系

统增加了收入。抽水储存水电，可将来自间歇性可再生能源、基底

负荷来源（如煤电或核电）的过剩电力储存起来，以备高峰时所

需。所谓的抽水储能，要求有合适的地理条件。《卫报》2017年3月

报道，德国北莱因-威斯特伐利亚州有座过剩煤矿，目前正在将这座

煤矿建成一座200兆瓦的储能装置。

利用来自风电厂和太阳能电厂生产的过剩电力，来生产氢气，


Updates最新消息

hydrogen captured by that process

could, whenever needed, feed

natural gas power plants or fuel

cells to make electricity. Industrial

plants like oil refineries can

also use hydrogen for chemical

processes. Hydrogen storage is

attractive because it preserves

energy for longer periods.

According to Bomber September

2017, hydrogen has attracted the

interest of big energy companies

including Shell, Total SA, Engie SA,

Toyota Motor Corp., Bayerische

Motoren Werke AG, Audi and the

Japanese industrial gas supplier

Iwatani Corp. General Motors Co.

They’re supporting research into

how the element can be used to

store energy for weeks or even

months beyond what lithium-ion

batteries can manage.

In Holland, the energy sector

makes use of gas storage to ensure

用氢气来促进电解，将水分解为氢元素和氧元素。电解过程获得的

氢元素，可在需要时用作天然气电厂或燃料电池的原料，用来生产

电力。炼油厂等工业厂房也可在化学反应中使用氢气。储氢具吸引

力的原因是其储能时间更长。根据Bomber 2017年9月报道，储氢

技术吸引了大型能源公司的兴趣，其中包括壳牌、道达尔、Engie

SA、丰田汽车、宝马汽车公司、奥迪、日本工业天然气供应商岩谷

产业株式会社、以及通用汽车公司等等。这些大公司都在支持将氢

气储存数周或数月技术的研究，来弥补锂离子电池储能的不足。

荷兰能源业利用鹿特丹GATE液化天然气终端或Bergermeer项目

来储存天然气，确保向电厂安全供应。GATE终端每年天然气储气容

量为120亿立方米，Bergermeer项目，由过剩气田建成的一座储气设

施，其天然气储气容量约41亿立方米。

英国伍尔弗汉普顿附近、谢菲尔德大学的Willenhall蓄电池储

能实验室，正在实验欧洲飞轮电池混合动力项目，项目的目标是促

进电网供需平衡。这是英国第一项电池飞轮储能系统装置，与爱

尔兰和英国电网并网。参与该项目的工程师来自英国谢菲尔德大

学、Schwungrad Energie、Adaptive Balancing Power和Freqcon。

这座价值400万欧元的储能项目，其中290万欧元来自欧盟“地

平线2020”项目，将开发新型飞轮电池混合储能系统，来缓解欧

洲现有电网基础设施的压力。飞轮系统最大装机容量为500千瓦，

储能容量10千瓦时。Freqcon GmbH首席执行官Norbert Hennchen表

示：“可再生能源渗透率越来越高，对全球电网稳定构成重大挑

战，利用领先的大功率变流器，我们公司走在开发创新型电网支持

解决方案的前列。”

随着储能成本进一步降低，尤其是蓄电池储能与可再生能源发

电并网，毋庸置疑的是，储能技术市场很可能出现爆炸性增长。n

secure supplies for its power plants, either at the GATE LNG

terminal at Rotterdam or at the Bergermeer project. The GATE

Terminal is able to process 12 billion m3 per annum, while the

Bergermeer project, which is a redundant gas field that has

been turned in a gas storage facility, holding some 4.1 billion

cubic meters of gas.

In the UK, Europe’s hybrid flywheel battery project is

being piloted at the University of Sheffield battery facility at

Willenhall near Wolverhampton, in order to balance supply

and demand on the grid. This facility is the UK’s first battery

flywheel system, and is connected to both the Irish and UK

grids. It involves engineers from Britain’s University of Sheffield,

Schwungrad Energie, Adaptive Balancing Power and Freqcon.

This €4 million euro project, with €2.9 million coming from the

EU’s Horizon2020 scheme, will develop an innovative flywheel

battery hybrid energy storage system aimed at stabilising

pressure on the existing grid infrastructure in Europe. The

flywheel system will be capable of a peak power of 500kW

and able to store 10kWh of energy. Norbert Hennchen, CEO

of Freqcon GmbH, said: “Increasing renewable penetration is a

huge challenge for grid stability worldwide, and our company

is at the forefront of developing innovative grid support

solutions, based on our leading-edge power converters.

What is clear as cost continue to fall for energy storage,

especially batteries integrated with renewables the market for

such technology is likely to explode.

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为响应不断进行的市场改革、法规修改和如物联网等先进

技术的问世，全球电力行业正在发生相应变化。如今，

电力公司处在一个全新的世界，他们的生存再也不能依

靠需求增长。因此，电力公司不得不改变其商业模式。而正是物联

网装备的技术在帮助电力公司调整他们面对市场和政府监管的现实

要求。物联网是一组技术和相关商务程序的集合，可使‘连接’的

装置将数据和信息持续实时地传输给电力运营商和其经理们。本文

将简述物联网在发电管理和电力配送方面的一些应用。

能源管理

纽约电力局（NYPA）下属的通用电气电力公司（GE Power），

正在安装传感器和预测分析工具，以减少意外停机时间，同时提高

其16个发电设施和逾1,400英里输电线路的效率。将于奥尔巴尼建立

的纽约电力局能源管理中心（EMC）将管理纽约州逾20,000座公共

建筑，节约能源。基本上，能源管理中心能够向每座建筑的能源管

理系统发出指令，通过自动调低供暖或制冷系统，在使用率低企期

间，如周末、夜晚或学校放假期间，实现节能。将来，能源管理中

心还可根据占用率自动匹配热负荷或冷负荷。纽约电力局估计，这

物联网和发电

The global power sector is evolving in response to

ongoing market reforms, changes in regulations and

the arrival of technological advances, such as the

internet of things. Today’s, power companies are living

in a new world one, in which they can no longer depend

on growth in demand. As a result, power companies have

had to change their business model and it is the internet

of things equipped technologies that are helping

utilities to adjust to the realities of the marketplace and

government regulations . The internet of things, is a set

of technologies and associated business processes that

enable ‘connected ‘ devices’ to continuously transmit

data and information in real-time to utility operators

and managers. This feature takes a look at some of the

applications of the internet of things on power generation

management and distribution.

Energy Management

GE Power, the New York Power Authority (NYPA), is installing

sensors and predictive analytics to reduce unplanned downtime

and make it’s 16 generating facilities and over 1,400 circuit-

miles of transmission lines more efficient. The NYPA’s energy

management centre (EMC), to be established in Albany ,will

control over 20,000 of the state’s public buildings to save energy

. Essentially, the EMC will be able to send commands to each

building’s energy management system drive energy savings

by lowering heating or cooling systems autonomously during

periods of low use e.g. at weekends, evenings or school breaks.

In the future, the EMC could automatically match the heat or


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项为公共建筑配备的新系统每年可为纳税人节省逾1亿美元，并计划

向商业和工业用户推广其服务。

生产方面

生产方面，物联网技术可帮助电厂提高灵活性，减少成

本。Auto grid Systems、西门子和通用等公司目前正在推出虚拟电

厂解决方案，该方案将推出的工具和专业技术可使电力公司、私人

公司和上市公司及国内用户提高其能源效率。

通用的数字化电厂（Digital Power Plant），以专有的Predix

工业互联网操作软件为基础，给现实电厂创建了一个“虚拟双胞

胎”并对其进行实时模拟。因此，通用首席数据官Ganesh Bell表

示：“这可监控电厂中的任何一项资产，提供智能响应和行动。”

该虚拟电厂平台不仅可优化现有基础设施，提高效率和产量，而且

还可以十分灵活地整合可再生能源电力供应，由此提高电网的稳定

性。通用称，其数字化电厂可在一座新建的联合循环电厂的寿命期

内节省约2.30亿美元，在现存联合循环电厂的寿命期内节省0.5亿美

元，这是一笔非同小可的数目。从全美电力行业整体来看，节省数

额可达750亿美元。

cool load to occupancy levels. The NYPA estimates that the new

system for public buildings will save taxpayers more than $100

million a year and plans to extend its services to business and

industrial customers.

Production Side

On the production side, internet of things technologies

can help to improve power plant flexibility and reduce costs.

Companies such as Autogrid Systems, Siemens and GE are

currently launching virtual power plant solutions, which can

provide tools and expertise that allow utilities, private and

public companies, and domestic users to increase their energy

efficiency. GE’s Digital Power Plant, is based on proprietary

Predix operating software for the industrial internet , creates a

“virtual twin” and provides a real-time simulation of a physical

power plant. Therefore, according to Ganesh Bell, GE chief digital

officer, “ it can monitor any asset in a plant, providing intelligent

response and actions.” This virtual power plant platform not

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only optimises existing infrastructure for

greater efficiency and output but, is sufficiently

flexible to integrate renewable power supply

and thereby improve grid stability. GE claims

that its Digital power plant offers potential

savings of around $230 million over the

lifetime of a new combined-cycle gas power

plant and for an existing combined-cycle power

plant, a not insignificant $50 million of savings.

This could amount to savings of $75 billion for

the industry as a whole across the US.

Power grid

Internet of things technologies are also

helping to better manage the grid. A good

case in point, is that of the Bonneville Power

Administration (BPA), the largest hydropower

utility in the US, which provides the Pacific

Northwest region with up to 12 GW of

cheap and plentiful electricity. Charged with

protecting the Columbia River basin’s fish

stocks ,which constrain dam operations,

BPA is balancing about 4,700 megawatts of

intermittent wind power in its system and has

a growing share of solar power to manage as

well. To better manage demand in future, BPA

approached AutoGrid systems. Specifically,

BPA needed a system to enable it to be better

电网

物联网技术还有助于改善电网管理。一个典型的好案例就是美

国最大的水电厂美国邦纳维尔电力局（BPA），该电力局向太平洋西

北地区提供高达12GW廉价充裕的电力。其肩负的保护哥伦比亚河流

域鱼群的责任掣肘了河坝电站的运营，因此，邦纳维尔电力局在其

系统中以约4,700兆瓦的间歇性风电来补充，太阳能发电在其管理中

的比例也越来越高。为了在未来更好地管理需求，邦纳维尔电力局

利用了Auto Grid系统。具体而言，邦纳维尔电力局需要利用该管理

系统来提高其需求响应能力，使其不但能够减少电力负载来提高电

网均衡性，还能降低输电阻塞。发电业同行通常需要提前一天和提

前一小时通知才能做出需求响应，但是邦纳维尔电力局要求其资源

能够在10分钟或更短的时间内做出响应。该公司还需要制定一个平

台解决方案，在同一个控制室内既可以从公共和私有聚合器多个来

源调用电力，还可以配送其水电资源和入网电厂的电力。自2月开始

运营以来，其系统为500兆瓦时的电网进行了20次配送，每次配送18

兆瓦到30兆瓦不等，均衡负载下降。Bonneville客户执行主任John

Wellschlager表示：“要取得成功，需求响应必须实现三个目标：

一个具有高度的可靠性，二个成本效益好，三是易用易调配。”他

补充道：“虽然需求响应作为一个概念很好理解，但是作为一个可

靠性工具来使用时，它却是一项极其复杂的产品。”

有一点是很清楚的，物联网的采用正在改变电力行业在整个价

值链（从能源的起始到最终被用来煮一杯清茶）中的运行方式。n

at demand- response, to be able to curtail power loads for

better grid balance as well as reduce transmission congestion.

Unlike the customary day-ahead and hour-ahead demand-

response of its peers across the US, Bonneville wanted its

resources to be able to respond in 10 minutes or less. It also

required a platform solution, that can bring in power from

multiple resources, both public and private aggregators, in

the same control rooms where it dispatches its hydro-power

resources and participating power plants. Since becoming

operational in February, the system has dispatched some 20

events to shed between 18 and 30 megawatts at a time, for a

total of 500 megawatt-hours of grid-balancing load drop. “To

succeed, demand-response (DR) has to meet three objectives:

it has to be highly reliable, it has to be cost-effective, and it

has to be easy to use and deploy,” states John Wellschlager,

Bonneville account executive. Adding, “While DR is pretty

well understood as a concept, it’s an immensely complicated

product to be used as a reliability tool.”

One thing is clear. The adoption of the internet of things is

changing how the power sector operates throughout its value

chain- from origination of energy - to its final usage in boiling

a cup of tea.

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在欧洲，尤其是丹麦、德国和瑞典，合作社形式的独立发

电厂并不是一个新的概念，这些发电厂主要由农场主、

本地居民或企业所有。

仅在德国一国，通过天然气，或沼气、太阳能或风能等更为常

在一些国家，发电事业往往由国有机构如南非Eskom公司，或私营独立电厂如RWE和 E.ON主导。然而，在一些国家，社区所有的独立发电厂即能源合作社却在不断涌现。

能源合作社

Co-op independent power producers are not a new

concept in Europe, in particular, in Denmark, Germany

and Sweden where they are owned by farmers, local

residents or businesses.

In many countries, state-owned agencies like South Africa’s Eskom or private independent power producers, such as RWE and e.on that tend to dominate power production. However, in some countries, there are an increasing number of community-owned independent power producers, known as energy co-ops.

Energy Co-ops

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In Germany alone, there are believed to be over 800 energy co-

operatives fuelled by gas or more commonly renewables, such as

biogas, solar or wind. Energy co-ops own 9 percent of Germany’s

renewables sector and around 90 percent of Germany’s energy

co-ops are fuelled by solar energy which has a lower initial

investment requirement and the project development – installing

solar PV panels compared with wind turbines – is less risky. Around,

150 of the 800 or so energy co-ops in Germany are in district

heating systems.

Horb Ecumenical Energy Co-operative in Stuttgart, which

has several solar power plants and Oldham Community Power

in London, which has placed solar panels on community and

public buildings are two examples of this development. Energy

co-operatives are not a new idea and were established in the

mid -19th century out of mutual need. In contrast, people today

come together for different reasons, primarily out of a desire for

self-governance and participation. Some energy co-operatives are

seen as a social alternative to the market of unknown investors,

since they enable members to follow their own agenda instead of

being dependent on others.

The benefits

The co-op model is often sufficient to overcome “ not-in-

my-back-yard “ objections to new power projects and is therefore

favoured by governments and utilities seeking an increase in

power supplies. Essentially, if a local power project is community-

owned, it is usually easier to overcome any local opposition. “What

we have learnt – the central message we share all over the world

for community energy – is why it is important to have community

or citizen energy projects.” Without community involvement,

states Dr Andreas Wieg of the -Deutsche Genossenschafts- und

Raiffeisenverband e.V. (DGRV), the Federation for German co-

operative, acceptance of renewable energy is harder. It is the sense

of ownership that makes them work”.

The community of neighbours, farmers and businesses can also

be direct beneficiaries from sourcing their own power, obtaining

a new income stream and the opportunity to invest for income,

in a local project of benefit to the whole community whilst

demonstrating support for renewable energy and the environment.

In addition, it is a great way to reduce costs by offsetting the high

cost of electricity, is by the use of energy storage technologies

such as batteries, that can help during blackouts, help stabilise the

network and reduce CO2 emissions.

Business models

Energy co-ops generally operate in one of three basic business

models. One is the right to sell power directly to consumers. By

selling direct, small electricity producers are able to charge more per

unit and buyers could pay less than current market rates. In short,

a win-win for both parties. This is a model commonly found in

见的可再生能源发电的能源合作社就有800多家。在德国可再生能源

行业中，能源合作社占有9%的份额，其中约90%通过太阳能发电，

其中的原因是太阳能发电只需安装太阳能光伏面板，而非风力涡轮

机，所以初始投资更低，项目开发的风险也更低。在这800多家能源

合作社中，约150家被纳入地区采暖系统。

斯图加特的Horb Ecumenical能源合作社和伦敦Oldham

Community Power就是其中的两个上佳案例，前者拥有几家太阳能

电厂，后者为社区和公共建筑物安装了太阳能面板。能源合作社并

非一个新的概念，早在19世纪中期，为了满足双方的需求，这个概

念就已提出。相比之下，当今的人们总是出于不同的原因而走到一

起，主要是为了满足自治和参与的欲望。一些能源合作社被视为为

不知名投资者提供的另类市场，因为能源合作社让成员得以按照自

己的日程（而不是其他人或单位所规定的日程）来进行发电。

优点

合作社的模式一般都可以克服以“事不关己”为由反对实施新

的电力项目这种情况，因此备受政府和希望增加电力供应的公用事

业公司的青睐。重要的是，如果一个本地电力项目归社区所有，往

往可以更容易地克服本地的反对意见。“我们学到的经验是社区或

公民能源项目至关重要的原因，这也是我们在全球共享的有关社区

能源的核心信息。”德国合作社协会Deutscher Genossenschafts-

und Raiffeisenverband e.V.（DGRV）的Andreas Wieg博士表

示：“缺乏社区的参与，让人们接受可再生能源将变得难上加难，

因为正是基于社区的主人翁精神，能源项目得以顺利开展。”

在一个能让整个社区受益的本地项目中，相邻社区、农场主和

企业也可以是直接受益人，因为项目让他们可以购买自身所需的电

力、获得新的收入来源及投资的机会，同时还能对可再生能源和环

境提供支持。除此之外，这也是通过抵消高昂的电力成本来削减成

本的绝妙办法，同时电池等能源储备技术的使用还能在停电时供

电，并稳定电网、减少二氧化碳排放。

业务模式

能源合作社共有三个基本的业务模式，其中的一个普遍模式是

直接向消费者售电的权利。通过直接售电，小型发电厂能够收取更

能源储备将让能源合作社在最

佳的时间在能源批发市场上销

售冗余电力，并提高所供应电

力的安全性。

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Germany.

Two, the

selling power to

the grid model.

Here the income

earned is based

on the feed-in

tariffs set by the

g o v e r n m e n t ’ s

r e g u l a t o r .

People then buy

the electricity

at wholesale

rates from

power utilities.

This model is

commonly used

in the UK.

Three, there is

Denmark’s “right

to invest” model,

in which project

developers are

required to give

local residents priority when it comes to financing a community

energy scheme.

Prospects

Generally, the subsidies that governments provide for

renewables have made it harder to establish new energy co-ops.

As a result, there has been a slow-down in the creation of such

organisations in many countries including the UK and Germany.

Nevertheless, despite a less favourable business climate for

such schemes, new ways of funding including share sales to local

investors, local banks and governments or even crowd-funding

have enabled some projects to go ahead. For example, in the UK a

co-op share offering raised £660,000 to build 12 X 2.5MW Nordex

N100 Gamma Wind Turbines for the Spirit of Lanarkshire Wind

Energy Co-operative in Scotland. Likewise, in Germany, Dresden-

based Econeers, successfully crowd-funded more than 1.2 million

euros in its first year of existence, reporting an average investment

of 1,252 euros by 1,000 individuals. In general, crowd-funding

platforms accept investments starting from as little as 25 euros.

Another prospect for growth is the arrival of energy storage,

which will enable energy co-ops to trade surplus power at

optimum times in the wholesale power markets and improve the

energy security of supply for customers. Joe Warren, managing

direct of Power Vault points to the value of co-op energy for

housing associations, community buildings and community-

funded energy storage.

多的单位电费，而用户则可以支付低于当前市场费率的电费。简言

之，这是一个双赢模式，也是德国市场上非常普遍的一个模式。

其次，电网售电模式。在该模式下，发电厂主要基于国家监管

机构制定的上网电价来获得收入。用户则以批发电价从电力公用事

业公司购电。该模式在英国非常普遍。

第三，丹麦的“投资权”模式。在该模式下，如果要向社区能

源方案提供资金，项目开发企业需要优先向本地居民售电。

前景

总体而言，政府提供的可再生能源补贴使设立能源合作社变得

步履维艰。因此，在许多国家，比如英国和德国，能源合作社的建

设步伐纷纷放缓。

尽管商业环境对能源合作社方案不太有利，但是新的融资模

式，比如向本地投资者、本地银行和地方政府销售股权，或甚至众

筹，却让一些项目得以顺利开展。比如，在英国，苏格兰的Spirit

of Lanarkshire Wind Energy Co-operative能源合作社通过销售

股权筹集了66万英镑来修建Nordex的12 X 2.5兆瓦N100 Gamma系列

风力涡轮机。同样，在德国，总部位于德累斯顿的Econeers公司在

运营第一年就通过众筹成功筹集了120多万欧元。据该公司称，这相

当于1000名个人每人投资了1,252欧元。简言之，众筹平台接受低至

25欧元的投资。

能源储备也为能源合作社创造了增长前景。能源储备将让能源

合作社在最佳的时间在能源批发市场上销售冗余电力，并提高所供

应电力的安全性。Power Vault公司董事总经理Joe Warren指出了能

源合作社所供应的能源对房屋住宅协会、社区建筑物和社区资助的

能源储备带来的价值。n

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DR technologies were pioneered in North America,

and Global Industry Analysts forecast sales of such

technologies to reach $475 million by 2020, with the

main growth in demand coming from Asia.

How is it used?

In the UK, the National Grid has reached an agreement

with many of its large energy customers including, steel plants,

hospitals and universities, to cut back on their demand for mains

electricity during times of tight supplies in exchange agreed rates

of remuneration. Essentially, large industrial customers might

switch off some machinery or switch to their on-site generators

or tap into energy storage to replace grid power imports. At other

An increasing number of power companies are adopting demand response (DR) technologies that allows utilities to better manage the supply and demand for power in real time is increasing in response to growth in renewable power and rising demand for efficiency. When a utility has the means to match supply and demand with a software package, the requirement for standby power is not only reduced but it can even save on capital investment in additional power plants.

需求响应技术最初在北美问世，Global Industry

Analysts预计，到2020年需求响应技术销售额将达到

4.75亿美元，其中需求增长主要来自亚洲。

随着可再生能源的增长和能源效率需求的不断提高，越来越多的电力公司采用需求响应技术，以便可以更好地实时管理电力供需。如果借助于软件包，电力公司有办法平衡供需，那么不仅可减少对备用电力的要求，而且可节省对新建电厂的资本投资。

需求响应的优势Demand Response

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需求响应的优势

times, customers with surplus power can sell power to the grid

and gain additional revenue.

Why does a utility want customers to take part in these

programmes?

Originally, DR technologies were used by utilities to reduce

their need to use their expensive and uneconomic peaking plants,

many of which might operate for as little as 10 days year. For

example, commercial and industrial customers in New York could

when required, give up around 543 megawatts of grid power, the

equivalent of a medium-sized power plant! In effect, adoption

of DR by utilities is seen as a more efficient form of investment

since it could save the need for an additional power plant. It is

customer friendly if the experience of California is anything to go

by where any additional power plant capacity has to be paid for

by customers in the form of higher bills.

How is demand response different from energy efficiency?

DR differs completely from energy efficiency. The latter is

focused on cutting the overall use of energy. In contrast, demand

response management focuses on cutting energy consumption at

specific times of the day, based on the incentive of price, which can

vary over time. For the utility, demand management helps stabilise

the grid and potentially offers savings in capital investment whilst

the customer enjoys lower monthly power bills.

Who are important providers of demand response?

Whilst major utilities have devised and operate their own

demand-response programmes, other utilities employ third-

party companies such as EnerNoc, Converge, and Power to install

control equipment at their customer’s sites and manage the curbs

based on price signals from the grid operators.

EnerNoc, for example, manages energy demand and energy

trading activities on behalf of its many worldwide clients from

a central headquarters. A case in point is that of EnerNoc, which

recently signed a 150 MW DR deal with the Alberta Electric System

Operator to maintain the stability of the regional grid.

In contrast, Opower offers utilities an alternative DR technology

based on real-time smart meter data. Essentially, Opower uses

Honeywell and Nest two-way smart meters and thermostats,

which allow both the utility and customer to manage actual

power needs and supply, either in real time or automatically. It is

now being suggested, that the ability of customers to personalise

their demand over the mobile phone or tablet, will help extend the

market for DR technology to the residential customer segment.

Direct and vastly improved communication between utilities

and their customers is likely to enable more efficient utilisation of

DR technologies and better target spikes in demand.

如何使用需求响应？

在英国，英国国家电网公司与包括钢厂、医院和大学在内许多

能源大户达成协议，在电力供应紧张时段减少其对干线电力的需

求，换之以事先商定好的一定比例的补偿。基本上，工业大用户

可能关掉一些机械或转用现场发电机或利用储能来替代电网电力输

入。在其他时段，有过剩电力的用户可将电力出售给电网并获得额

外收入。

为什么电力公司欢迎用户参与这类方案？

最初，电力公司利用需求响应技术来减少其对成本高昂且不经

济的调峰电厂的使用，这些调峰电厂许多可能一年只运营10天。举

例来说，纽约的商业和工业用户可根据约定减少消费约543兆瓦特电

网电力，该数额相当于一个中型发电厂的容量。事实上，电力公司

采用需求响应被视为一种效率更高的投资，因为这可省去再建一座

电厂的需要。如果消费者不得不为再建一座电厂的容量支付更大的

账单，那么加利福尼亚的经验表明，采用需求响用技术给消费者带

来了实惠。

需求响应与能源效率的区别在哪儿？

需求响应与能源效率大相径庭。后者将重点放在减少能源使用

总量上。与之相反，需求响应管理将重点放在减少对某日特定时段

的能源消费上，其基础是随时段而变的价格激励。对电力公司而

言，需求管理有助于稳定电网，并可能节省资本投资，同时消费者

每月的电费也下降了。

需求响应的重要供应商有哪些？

尽管主要电力公司设计并运营他们自己的需求响应方案，其他

类型的电力公司雇佣第三方公司如EnerNoc、Converge和Opower在其

客户那里安装控制设备，依据来自电网运营商的价格信号来实现对

限电的管理。

例如，EnerNoc从中心总部代表世界各地的许多客户管理能源

需求和能源交易活动。一个典型案例是，EnerNoc最近与Alberta

Electric System Operator签署了一项150 MW的需求响应交易，维

护区域电网的稳定。

相比之下，Opower基于实时智能电表数据向电力公司提供需求

响应替代技术。Opower基本上利用霍尼韦尔和Nest的双向智能表和

对可再生能源在美国、欧洲及

其他地区进一步渗透而言，需

求响应技术不但是必要的响

应，而且是推进力量。

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恒温器，这样电力公司和用户都可以实时或自动管理实际电力需要

和供应。有建议认为，如果客户能够在手机或平板电脑上定制其个

人需求，这将有助于把需求响应技术市场拓展到住宅用户的领域。

电力公司和其用户直接交流得到极大改善，这可促进需求响应

技术提高使用效率，促进管理需求高峰目标的实现。

需求响应对可再生能源的影响

对可再生能源在美国、欧洲及其他地区进一步渗透而言，需求

响应技术不但是必要的响应，而且是推进力量。在美国，美国邦纳

维尔电力局（Bonneville Power Administration）有一水坝和风电

厂集团，这些电厂偶尔产生电力高峰。为了在接到临时通知后马上

就吸收过剩电力，EnerNoc提议使用蓄热，通过这种方法把过剩的可

再生能源用于加热瓷砖室内加热器，将过剩电力以热能形式储存起

来以备后用。

在欧洲，电网运营商也面临平抑风电和太阳能发电产出上下波

动的挑战。正在研究改装诸如热水器甚至电动车辆等设备来吸收过

剩电力。因为这类技术可在需要时储存大量电能，以便在可再生能

源电力输出中避免电压突降和浪涌。

需求响应面临的挑战

采用提高能源效率的方案实际上可能减少对需求响应技术的需

要。但是，物联网的问世使需求响应技术自动化成为可能，因此提

高了其对电力公司、企业和零售客户的吸引力。n

The impact of demand-response on renewables

DR technologies are both a necessary response and a facilitator

of increasing penetration of renewables in the US, Europe and

elsewhere. In the US, Bonneville Power Administration has a fleet

of dams and wind farms, which occasionally generate power

surges. To absorb this surplus power at short notice, EnerNoc

proposed the use of thermal heat storage, whereby surplus

renewable energy is used to heat ceramic brick room heaters to

store the excess electricity as heat for later exploitation.

In Europe, grid operators also face the challenge of integrating

fluctuating wind and solar power output. Devices such as water

heaters and even electric vehicles, which can be adjusted to absorb

surplus power, are being investigated. For, such technologies could

provide massive grid-scale opportunities to store energy when

needed to back- up dips and surges in renewable output.

Challenges facing demand- response

Oddly enough, adoption of improved energy efficiency

programmes could actually reduce the need for demand response

technologies. In the meantime, the arrival of the internet of things

allows for automation of demand response technologies and thus

widens their appeal to utilities, business, and retail customer

segments.

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然而，混合型发电厂目前仍处发展初期，预计截至2019

年，全球市场规模为19.2亿美元。随着可再生能源科技

生产率不断提高、成本越来越低，从而推动了混合型发

电厂的发展。目前这类电厂常见于市区和边远地区，是一个自给自

或许我们都听说过混合动力汽车和混合动力公交车，由汽油、柴油和电池混合起来提供动力。混合型发电厂的运营也在采用同样的发电方法。混合型电厂常常将可再生能源如太阳能和风力与化石燃料发电结合在一起。这类电厂设计的目的在于克服现代可再生能源间歇性（导致的电力供应波动）。

混合型发电厂

But, still in its infancy, the global market is forecast to reach

$1.92 billion by 2019. This is facilitated by increasingly

productive renewable technology and falling costs.

These plants are to be found as stand-alone power systems in

We have perhaps all read of hybrid cars and buses powered by a amalgamation of petrol or diesel with batteries. The same method to making electricity is being taken in the operation of hybrid power plants. Such plants often combine renewables, such as solar or wind power with fossil fuel generation. They are designed to overcome the intermittency of modern renewable energy.

Hybrid power plants

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足独立的电力系统，在发展中国家尤其如此，常常用太阳能和风能

来为成本高昂的柴油作补充。截至2020年，太阳能和柴油混合型发

电厂将占全球混合型电厂的一半稍多。

混合动力定义

正常情况下，混合型发电厂混合使用柴油或汽油这类可靠的化

石燃料和间歇性可再生能源来发电。这种方法不但可增加系统效

益，还可提供均衡性更好的能源供应。尽管有些方案仅仅使用风力

和太阳能可再生能源，不过绝大多数混合使用一种可再生能源和传

统的化石燃料发电，最普遍的是混合使用柴油和风能或太阳能。不

过，在许多工程中天然气日益取代了柴油。而且，随着蓄电池成本

的降低，混合型发电厂可采用蓄电池来储蓄过剩电力以备后用。

混合动力的效益

混合动力方案带来许多效益，其中包括降低对成本高昂的柴油等

urban and remote areas, particularly in developing countries

where, very often, they supplement expensive diesel with solar

or wind power. By 2020, combined solar and diesel plants will

account for just over half of the world’s hybrid plants.

Hybrid power defined

Normally, a hybrid power plant combines a dependable fossil

fuel such as diesel or gas generation, with a spasmodic renewable

energy source. This is done to increase system effectiveness and

provide a better balance of energy supply. Whilst some schemes

solely use renewables like wind and solar power, the majority

combine conventional fossil-fuel generation with a renewable,

most commonly diesel with wind or solar energy. However,

increasingly gas is replacing diesel in many projects. In addition,

with the decreasing cost of batteries, hybrid power plants may

include batteries to store surplus power for later use.

Its Benefits

Hybrid power schemes offer a range of benefits including

reduced the need on fossil fuels such as costly diesel alongside

lower operating and maintenance costs. Above all, hybrid power

plants provide energy security through a diversity of energy

sources and responsiveness to load fluctuations. They ensure a

reliable electricity supply for both private and public customers.

Now are three examples that highlight the current possibilities

for using hybrid power plants. One, the Danish city of Aarhus, is

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化石燃料的需求，及减少运营和维护成本。最重要的是，混合型发

电厂通过多样化能源来源和增强对负载波动的响应能力来保证能源

安全。这种方案确保向私人客户和公共客户提供可靠的电力供应。

下面用三个案例来简要说明目前使用混合型发电厂方案的可能

性。第一个案例是丹麦城市奥尔胡斯，该市正在将其所有的可再生

能源和余热发电机组并入到现有的传统电力系统。奥尔胡斯市这样

做的目的是为了提高能源自给，进而将剩余电力输出到电网。第二

个案例在南非，几家南非矿井已经通过单独增加或混用风能和太阳

能，将其现有柴油机发电厂改装成混合型电力运营。以Crominet矿

井为例，这家矿井增加了太阳能光伏来提供60%运行这家边远矿井

需要的1.6兆瓦电力。这种改装为运营商每年节省300万公升柴油的

成本。第三个案例是位于智利的意大利国家电力公司（Enel）的

Ollague混合型发电厂，这家电厂混合使用太阳能、风能、柴油和电

池。白天，多余的可再生电力给蓄电池充电。夜晚，蓄电池电力耗

尽时就用柴油。

Altresco Companies首席执行官William Ross Williams称发电

行业已经在经历一场革命。威Williams说：“10年前需要1000万美

元的电网控制中心来进行的工作，现在在笔记本电脑上就可轻松完

成。”相对于传统的单一模式系统而言，如单一的柴油发电机组，

设备、处理方面的工业进步和经验的积累使混合型发电厂的成本稳

步下降。但即使这样，安装合适的控制系统并优化设备来生产价格

具竞争力的能源仍是挑战。n

integrating all its renewable and heat generation units with existing

conventional power systems. Aarhus is doing this in order to

improve energy self-sufficiency, and export surplus power to the

grid. Another, is in South Africa, where several mines have converted

their existing diesel generation plants into hybrid power operations

by adding wind and solar singly or in combination. The Crominet

mine, for example, has added solar PV to provide 60 percent of

the 1.6 megawatts of power needed to run this remote mine. This

conversion has saved the operators the cost of 3 million litres of

diesel fuel a year. Thirdly, in Chile, Enel’s Ollagüe hybrid power plant

incorporates a combination of solar, wind and diesel inputs as well

as batteries. During the day, surplus renewable power charges the

batteries. At night, when battery power is exhausted, diesel kicks in.

According to William Ross Williams, CEO Altresco Companies,

power generation has undergone a revolution. Williams says, “What

would have been a 10 million dollar grid control centre a decade

ago can now fit on a laptop?” Industrial advances in equipment,

computing and growing experience are steadily improving the

costs of hybrid power plants over more conventional one-mode

systems such as diesel alone. Even so, installing the right control

systems and optimising the equipment to produce competitively

priced energy remains a challenge.

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Predicting the direction, let alone the degree of change in energy prices is tricky and revisions are common. Transport, power and industry, as the major consumers of fossil fuels will be the major beneficiaries of any reduction or plateauing of oil and gas prices. Coal- fired power output has been flat for several years but it is still the world’s number one. Coal’s share of the global power mix was 41 percent in 2001 falling just slightly to 39 percent in 2016. Increasing electrification and tighter regulations on pollution should favour gas at the expense of coal. In response, oil majors have noticeably increased gas as a proportion of their output.

燃煤发电产量近几年来持平，但在全球电力产量中仍稳居

第一。2001年燃煤发电产量在全球电力结构中的比例为

41%，至2016年仅小幅下降至39%。电气化日益加深及

预测能源价格的走向已是棘手的事，预测其变化幅度的难度更可想而知了，而且预测后往往有修正。交通、电力和工业，作为化石燃料消费大户，将成为石油和天然气价格下降或持平的主要受益者。

2020能源价格预测A

ccording to the IEA outlook, renewable energy will grow

by about 1000 GW by 2022, meaning that the share of

renewables in the world’s electricity mix will increase

from about 24 percent in 2016 to 29 percent by 2022. In

terms of marginal growth, coal is losing out to gas and rising

renewables, which now account for the majority of growth in

global electricity output. The cost of renewable technology is

expected to fall and this, together with its scalability and speed

of build, boosts its attractiveness.

COAL

Institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF differ

in their projections for the direction of coal prices in 2020.

The World Bank expects the price of coal to fall from $60 per

metric tonne today to $55.4 whilst the IMF sees coal prices

ENERGY PRICE OUTLOOK 2020

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治理污染的法规越来越严格，从而使天然气受益，对煤炭不利。因

此，大型石油生产商显著增加了天然气在其产量中所占的比例。根

据国际能源署的展望，截至2022年，可再生能源将增加约1000 GW，

rising to $63.1 per metric tonne. The availability and cheapness

of coal, low carbon prices, and a big legacy of coal- fired plants

ensures that coal remains a major feedstock despite efforts

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这意味着可再生能源在全球电力结构中所占的比例将从2016年的约

24%上升至2022年的29%。

就边际增长而言，煤炭正让位于天然气及如日中升的可再生能

源，后者目前在全球电力产量增量中所占比例最大。可再生能源科

技的成本预计将下降，加之其可大规模建设且建设速度快，其吸引

力将越来越大。

煤炭

世界银行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）等机构在对2020年煤炭价

格走向的预测上各持己见。世界银行预计，煤炭价格将从现今的60

美元/公吨下降至55.4美元/公吨，然而国际货币基金组织却预测煤

炭价格将上涨至63.1美元/公吨。尽管欧洲、中国以及最近的印度

都采取了措施抑制碳排放，然而由于煤碳低廉且容易开采，碳价低

企，燃煤电站大量存在，这些因素都决定了煤仍然是主要燃料。相

比之下，美国修改了现有法规的提案打算增加煤产量，抑制煤价。

天然气

欧洲天然气价格大约在5美元/百万英热单位（MMBtu）左右，国

际货币基金组织和世界银行不约而同地预测天然气价格将出现小幅

上涨，截至到2020年，两家机构分别预计天然气价格将升至5.57美

元和5.63美元。近年来对液化天然气厂的投资热潮及对需求的乐观

预期对目前的供给过剩和价格低迷起了一定作用，以目前产量规模

来计，供给过剩预计将持续到本世纪20年代初，何况即将投产的新

产能。然而，液化天然气价格低企一段时期后，可能在新市场和非

洲及其他地区以液化天然气为动力的项目中创造需求。尽管如此，

未来数年中燃气电厂可能越来越多地受到在成本上具竞争力的可再

生能源的排挤。

原油

欧佩克最新报告显示，随着产量削减及全球需求增长对长期

过剩供给的消化，市场对石油价格将从2016年低位反弹的信心

增强。10月份，布伦特原油（Brent crude）价格升至接近60美

元/桶，尽管10月份以来价格出现小幅下滑。国际能源署预计，2018

年原油市场供需基本平衡，然而根据瑞信和摩根士丹利预计，产量

上升加之美国原油出口，可能将布伦特原油价格压在60美元/桶以

下。国际货币基金组织7月份发布的《初级产品预测》预计，到2020

年原油价格会跌至53.5美元/桶。由于能源利用效率不断提高以及

预计的回岸可能导致海上运输量减少，从而使电力行业石油消费下

降，这项预测可能更贴近实际。

可再生能源

可再生能源价格降幅之大、生产率提高之快使多数行业分析师

为之惊叹。全球清洁能源顾问公司Greentech Capital Advisors合

伙人Jim Long表示：“以2010年为例，当年在加利福尼亚州建设一

座太阳能发电厂的成本是5500万美元。如今建造相同规模的太阳能

发电厂可能只需1500万美元，而且发电量至少增加40%。”据彭博

新能源财经报道，由于越来越多的国家放弃保证发电机固定价格的

高额补贴，转而采用竞价拍卖或投标，预计未来数年可再生能源价

格可能进一步下跌。2015年以来，可再生能源发电拍卖额已增长两

倍，太阳能电力价格大幅下降。

to curb carbon emissions in Europe, China, and latterly India.

In contrast, in the US, proposed changes in regulations are

intended to boost coal output and hold up price.

GAS

Gas prices in Europe are around $5 per MMBtu and are

projected to rise slightly by both the IMF and World Bank to

$5.57 and $5.63 respectively by 2020. The investment boom in

LNG plants of recent years and optimistic demand projections

have contributed to the current supply glut and depressed

prices, which are expected to continue into the early 2020s on

current output, never mind new capacity coming on stream. A

period of low LNG prices may yet create market demand in new

markets and LNG-to-power projects in Africa and elsewhere.

Nevertheless, gas- fired power is likely to be squeezed by

increasingly cost competitive renewables in coming years.

CRUDE OIL

Opec’s latest report shows growing confidence that oil

prices will recover from their lows of 2016 as production cuts

and rising global demand erode chronic oversupply. The cost of

a barrel of Brent crude reached nearly $60 in October though

it has since fallen back slightly. The IEA forecasts a roughly

balanced oil market in 2018 but increasing output and exports

of US crude may keep Brent crude at below $60 a barrel

according to both Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley forecasts.

The IMF’s Primary Commodities Projections released in July,

forecast oil at $53.5 a barrel by 2020. This could be realistic

given a decline in the power sector’s consumption of oil, by

ongoing improvements in energy efficiency and anticipated

reshoring which could cut maritime freight traffic.

RENEWABLES

The dramatic reduction in price and rise in productivity of

renewables has surprised most industry analysist. “For instance,

in 2010 it cost $55 million to build a solar farm in California

.Today a similarly sized installation is likely to cost just $15

million and it will produce at least 40 percent more energy,”

says Jim Long, a partner at Greentech Capital Advisors, a global

clean energy advisory firm. According to Bloomberg New

Energy Finance, the cost of renewables is likely to fall even

further over the coming years as an increasing number of

countries abandon expensive subsidies guaranteeing set prices

for generators in favour of competitive auctions or tenders.

Already, the amount of renewable power that is auctioned has

tripled since 2015 and the price of solar has crashed as a result.

GRID- SCALE BATTERIES

Grid- scale battery prices are expected to fall by up to 30

percent by 2020 according to Enel. This price reduction should

31

Chinese Eyebrow

English Eybrow


improve the economics of solar and wind, since surplus power

could be stored for later sale to the grid at higher prices. In a

joint project, due for completion in a 100 days on 7 January

2017, Tesla is providing a grid-scale battery linked to the

315 MW Hornsdale Wind Farm to make good on his claim to

supply sufficient power for the coming summer and relieve

the inhabitants of South Australia from frequent power

shortages. Should Tesla prove successful, this will further boost

the economics of solar and wind in power generation.

Absolute and comparative prices of different fuels,

government policy, and technology are the crucial factors in

shaping supply and demand and ultimately price.

电网规模蓄电池

根据意大利国家电力公司预测，截至2020年电网规模蓄电池价

格跌幅预计将高达30%。价格下跌可能提高太阳能和风力发电的经济

效益，因为过剩电力可以先蓄存到电网上，以后以较高价格出售。

在一项预计于2017年1月7日，100天内完工的合作项目中，特斯拉将

提供电网规模蓄电池，连接到315MW的Hornsdale风电厂，实现于来

年夏季提供足够电力供应的承诺，使南澳大利亚洲居民不再忍受频

繁停电之苦。如果特斯拉取得成功，这将进一步提高太阳能和风能

发电的经济效益。

各种燃料的绝对和相对价格、政府政策和科技是决定供需并最

终决定价格的至关重要的因素。n

32 Oil & Gas Technology | www.cavendishgroup.cn

Professional diary2018January 2018

24 JAN - 25 JAN

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Energy Summit

Brussels, Belgium

Organisers: Active Communications

International

Email: [email protected]

URL: www.wplgroup.com

30 JAN - 01 FEB

NextGen SCADA Europe 2018

Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Organisers: Phoenix Forums


URL: www.nextgenscada-europe.com

31 JAN - 01 FEB

Energy Storage 2018

Cologne, Germany


International



February 2018

07 FEB - 08 FEB

5th National Conference on Next

Generation Demand Response

San Diego, CA, USA


International



07 FEB - 08 FEB

Nuclear Decommissioning & Waste

Management Summit

London, UK


International


ESSENTIAL DATES FOR PROFESSIONALS WORKING IN THE POWER GENERATION SECTOR


14 FEB - 15 FEB

Renewable India 2018

New Delhi, IndiaOrganisers: Green World

Conferences

URL: www.greenworldconferences.com

14 FEB - 15 FEB

Hydropower Caspian & Central Asia

Tbilisi, GeorgiaOrganisers: Vostock Capital


URL: www.hydropowercongress.com

20 FEB - 21 FEB

Africa Energy Indaba

Johannesburg, South Africa

Organisers: Africa Energy Indaba


URL: www.africaenergyindaba.com

March 2018

06 MAR - 07 MAR

Hydro 2018

Tucson, AZ, USA

Organisers: CEATI International


URL: www.ceati.com

07 MAR - 08 MAR

Developing Onshore Wind Farms Summit

London, UK

Organisers: Active Communications International



13 MAR - 14 MAR

Solar PV Ireland

Ireland

Organisers: Solar Media Ltd


URL: ireland.solarenergyevents.com

18 MAR - 22 MAR

WM2018

Phoenix, AZ, USA

Organisers: WM Symposia Inc


URL: www.wmsym.org

19 MAR - 22 MAR

Electric Power Conference & Exhibition 2018

Nashville, TN, USAOrganisers: Access Intelligence


URL: 2018.electricpowerexpo.com

21 MAR - 22 MAR

European Fuels Markets & Refining Strategy

Conference 2018

Venice, ItalyOrganisers: Active Communications

International



27 MAR - 29 MAR

South-East European Exhibition & Conference

on Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EE

& RE)

Sofia, Bulgaria

Organisers: Via Expo Ltd


URL: https:

28 MAR - 29 MAR

Gasification 2018

Frankfurt, GermanyOrganisers: Active

Communications International



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