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Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas Purpose of this brief
1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website.
2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends.
3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website.
4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area.
5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017.
Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County Durham County Council
Key Messages
6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period.
7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths).
8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people.
9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 16.8%/9,812 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 15.5%/6,239 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people over the same period.
10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise).
11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (677 fewer children, 18.2% fall) and the Teesdale AAP (662 fewer children, 15.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,098 children, a fall of 10.9%.
12. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing decreases in the 0 to 15 age group has fallen from eight to five areas with the East Durham AAP seeing a small rise in this period of 0.2%.
13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001. However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP have seen an increase in this group, with increases of 4.8% and 1.4% respectively.
14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since 2001. The largest percentage increase was in the Weardale AAP (in part due to small numbers) which increased by 53.0%, an increase of 820 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,879/46.7% people aged 65 and over since 2001.
15. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and Middridge nearly trebling between 2001 and 2017, rising from 246 to 675 people, an increase of 172.8%. East Durham AAP has the largest number of people aged 85+ with 2,039 people.
Population change by AAP Area
Age group: Overall
16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 5.0%/935 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1.
Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area.
17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 15.5% and 16.8% respectively with the 4 Together AAP showing the highest percentage decrease of 5.0% over the same period.
18. Since 2011 the highest growth has been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 7.4% and 5.9% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (in the cases of 4 Together, East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Weardale AAP with falls of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
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Durham AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
3 Towns Partnership AAP
Spennymoor AAP
Stanley AAP
East Durham Rural AAP
County Durham
Mid Durham AAP
Weardale AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
Teesdale AAP
Chester-le-Street & District AAP
East Durham AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
2001 Base
4 Together Partnership AAP
Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2017
Population Number change % change
2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011
from 2001
from 2011
3 Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,204 2,616 351 11.6% 1.4% 4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17,629 -935 -31 -5.0% -0.2% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,760 1,393 502 3.4% 1.2% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54,326 647 210 1.2% 0.4%
Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,526 6,239 1,575 15.5% 3.5%
Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 68,279 9,812 4,714 16.8% 7.4%
East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93,474 786 -152 0.8% -0.2%
East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,882 2,030 552 8.5% 2.2%
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26,824 127 -130 0.5% -0.5%
Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,710 1,737 889 5.4% 2.7%
Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,955 1,899 1,224 9.5% 5.9%
Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,734 2,744 965 8.9% 2.9%
Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 25,017 558 8 2.3% 0.0%
Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8,342 320 -8 4.0% -0.1%
County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1%
North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9%
England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6%
Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates
Age group: 0 to 15
19. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the Derwent Valley AAP (645 more children, 8.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (495 children, 8.3% rise). The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.2%/677 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,098 children since 2001, a fall of 10.9%.
Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area.
80%
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% c
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Stanley AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
3 Towns Partnership AAP
Spennymoor AAP
Durham AAP
East Durham Rural AAP
2001 Base
County Durham
Mid Durham AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
Weardale AAP
East Durham AAP
Chester-le-Street & District AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
Teesdale AAP
4 Together Partnership AAP
20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to nine with three areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7%, in the Mid Durham AAP there was an increase of 2.1% short term and decline of 5.6% long term and in the East Durham Rural AAP there was growth of 0.2% short term compared to a decline of 10.9% long term.
21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population. All AAP areas have also seen falls of between 3.0 and 0.1 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest fall in the Teesdale AAP area of 3.0 percentage points, falling from 17.5% in 2001 to 14.4% in 2011 of the areas total population.
22. The Stanley AAP area had the lowest fall of 0.1 percentage points over this period and now has the highest proportion of its population aged 0 to 15 out of the fourteen AAP areas at 19.2%. In 2001 the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP had the highest portion of children with 21.6%, this has now fallen to 18.8%. Table 2 below summarises some of these changes.
Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 population between 2001, 2011 and 2017
Population Number change % change Proportion
2001 2011 2017 from 2001
from 2011
from 2001
from 2011 2001 2017
3 Towns Partnership AAP 4,459 4,536 4,803 344 267 7.7% 5.9% 19.7% 19.1%
4 Together Partnership AAP 3,714 3,043 3,037 -677 -6 -18.2% -0.2% 20.0% 17.2%
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 8,439 7,734 7,785 -654 51 -7.7% 0.7% 20.4% 18.2%
Chester-le-Street & District AAP 10,332 9,288 9,054 -1,278 -234 -12.4% -2.5% 19.2% 16.7%
Derwent Valley AAP 7,812 8,011 8,457 645 446 8.3% 5.6% 19.4% 18.2%
Durham AAP 8,682 8,336 9,042 360 706 4.1% 8.5% 14.8% 13.2%
East Durham AAP 19,188 17,062 17,090 -2,098 28 -10.9% 0.2% 20.7% 18.3%
East Durham Rural AAP 4,651 4,564 4,696 45 131 1.0% 2.9% 19.5% 18.1% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 5,757 5,174 5,037 -720 -137 -12.5% -2.6% 21.6% 18.8%
Mid Durham AAP 6,086 5,628 5,745 -341 116 -5.6% 2.1% 19.0% 17.0%
Spennymoor AAP 3,662 3,636 3,904 242 269 6.6% 7.4% 18.3% 17.8%
Stanley AAP 5,967 6,054 6,462 495 408 8.3% 6.7% 19.3% 19.2%
Teesdale AAP 4,275 3,832 3,613 -662 -219 -15.5% -5.7% 17.5% 14.4%
Weardale AAP 1,287 1,262 1,174 -113 -88 -8.8% -7.0% 16.0% 14.1%
County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,899 -4,412 1,739 -4.7% 2.0% 19.1% 17.2%
North East 500,900 462,200 471,260 -29,640 9,060 -5.9% 2.0% 19.7% 17.9%
England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,197,231 702,031 611,231 6.7% 5.8% 20.0% 19.2%
Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates
Age group: 16 to 64 (Working age definition)
23. Since 2001 nine AAP areas have seen increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64). However, since 2011 this trend has reversed with only two of the previous nine AAPs seeing an increase in their working age population: Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP.
Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by AAP area
24. The largest increases were in the Derwent Valley AAP, 13.3%/3,380 people rising to 28,748 and the Durham AAP, 13.4%/5,573 people rising to 47,045. The largest percentage fall was in the Weardale AAP with a fall of 7.5%/388 people, with the largest number fall seen in the Chester-le-Street AAP of 1,599 people, a fall of 4.6%.
25. Since 2011 and as mentioned above only the Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP have seen increases in their working age population, increases of 4.8%/2,171 and 1.4%/181 respectively. The largest percentage fall was again in the Weardale AAP with a fall of 7.4%/384 people indicating that the majority of the areas decrease since 2001 has been over the last seven years.
26. Since 2011 the largest number fall was in the East Durham AAP with a fall of 1,627 people, a fall of 2.7%. This large fall in number is in part due to falling number of children, people aging into retirement and outward migration1 from the area. Since 2011 the figures show that 404 more people migrated out of the area than in to it and it is one of only two AAPs to show a net outward migration since 2011, along with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP which had net outward migration of 113 people.
27. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.4%. A similar pattern is seen across thirteen of the AAP areas except for the East Durham AAP which has shown a slight improvement in this latest data release.
1 Migration figures are derived from a best fit approach of MSOAs to AAPs. As these boundaries are not co-terminus there is a great deal of overlap and repetition within neighbouring AAPs. Therefore these figures are indicative only as it is possible that the data in a particular overlapping MSOA refers to a neighbouring AAP.
85%
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Durham AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
3 Towns Partnership AAP
Stanley AAP
County Durham
Spennymoor AAP
East Durham Rural AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
Mid Durham AAP
East Durham AAP
2001 Base
Teesdale AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
Chester-le-Street & District AAP
4 Together Partnership AAP
Weardale AAP
28. Since 2001 only the East Durham AAP has seen an increase in the proportion of its working age population, an increase of 0.2 percentage points despite seeing the number of people in this age group fall as detailed above. The Weardale AAP had the largest fall in proportion of 7.1 percentage points since 2001, falling from 58.3% in 2016 to 57.6% in 2017. Table 3 below summarises some of these changes.
Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 (working age) population between 2001, 2011 and 2017
Population Number change % change Proportion
2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011
from 2001
from 2011 2001 2017
3 Towns Partnership AAP 14,039 15,851 15,303 1,264 -548 9.0% -3.5% 62.2% 60.7%
4 Together Partnership AAP 11,496 11,175 10,746 -750 -429 -6.5% -3.8% 61.9% 61.0%
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 25,707 26,929 26,286 579 -643 2.3% -2.4% 62.1% 61.5%
Chester-le-Street & District AAP 35,046 34,544 33,447 -1,599 -1,097 -4.6% -3.2% 65.3% 61.6%
Derwent Valley AAP 25,368 28,876 28,748 3,380 -128 13.3% -0.4% 63.0% 61.8%
Durham AAP 41,472 44,874 47,045 5,573 2,171 13.4% 4.8% 70.9% 68.9%
East Durham AAP 57,717 59,995 58,368 651 -1,627 1.1% -2.7% 62.3% 62.4%
East Durham Rural AAP 15,451 16,106 15,875 424 -231 2.7% -1.4% 64.8% 61.3% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 17,007 17,032 16,226 -781 -806 -4.6% -4.7% 63.7% 60.5%
Mid Durham AAP 20,594 21,237 20,853 259 -384 1.3% -1.8% 64.4% 61.9%
Spennymoor AAP 13,172 13,372 13,553 381 181 2.9% 1.4% 65.7% 61.7%
Stanley AAP 19,848 21,086 20,774 926 -312 4.7% -1.5% 64.0% 61.6%
Teesdale AAP 15,459 15,558 14,859 -600 -699 -3.9% -4.5% 63.2% 59.4%
Weardale AAP 5,189 5,185 4,801 -388 -384 -7.5% -7.4% 64.7% 57.6%
County Durham 317,565 331,820 326,884 9,319 -4,936 2.9% -1.5% 64.3% 62.4%
North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,658,564 38,564 -23,136 2.4% -1.4% 63.8% 62.9%
England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,873,584 3,350,384 584,684 10.0% 1.6% 64.0% 63.2%
Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates
Age group: 65+
29. As with the county and other areas across the country all AAP areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with the largest percentage increase in the Weardale AAP of 53.0%/820 people.
Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by AAP area
30. However the largest increases in the number of older people have been in the Durham AAP which increased by 3,879 people to 12,192, an increase of 46.7% and the Chester-le-Street AAP which increased by 3,524 people to 11,825, an increase of 42.5%.
31. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.4% of the county total population. All AAP areas have seen increases of between 2.1 and 9.1 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 9.1 percentage points seen in Weardale AAP, however it is important to note that this AAP had the lowest number of people aged 65+ in 2017 with 2,367 people, increasing the proportion in this area to 28.4% from 19.3% in 2001.
32. Although the Durham AAP had the largest increase in number in the age group this AAP still has the lowest proportion of its population in this group 17.9% in 2017, up from 14.2% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.
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165%
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Weardale AAP
Durham AAP
Chester-le-Street & District AAP
Stanley AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
Spennymoor AAP
Teesdale AAP
Mid Durham AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
County Durham
East Durham Rural AAP
3 Towns Partnership AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
4 Together Partnership AAP
East Durham AAP
2001 Base
Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017
Population Number change % change Proportion
2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 from 2001
from 2011 2001 2017
3 Towns Partnership AAP 4,090 4,466 5,098 1,008 632 24.6% 14.1% 18.1% 20.2%
4 Together Partnership AAP 3,354 3,442 3,846 492 404 14.7% 11.7% 18.1% 21.8%
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 7,221 7,595 8,689 1,468 1,094 20.3% 14.4% 17.5% 20.3%
Chester-le-Street & District AAP 8,301 10,284 11,825 3,524 1,541 42.5% 15.0% 15.5% 21.8% Derwent Valley AAP 7,107 8,064 9,321 2,214 1,257 31.2% 15.6% 17.6% 20.0%
Durham AAP 8,313 10,355 12,192 3,879 1,837 46.7% 17.7% 14.2% 17.9%
East Durham AAP 15,783 16,569 18,016 2,233 1,447 14.1% 8.7% 17.0% 19.3% East Durham Rural AAP 3,751 4,660 5,312 1,561 651 41.6% 14.0% 15.7% 20.5% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 3,933 4,748 5,561 1,628 813 41.4% 17.1% 14.7% 20.7%
Mid Durham AAP 5,293 5,956 7,112 1,820 1,156 34.4% 19.4% 16.6% 21.1%
Spennymoor AAP 3,221 3,723 4,497 1,276 775 39.6% 20.8% 16.1% 20.5%
Stanley AAP 5,175 5,629 6,498 1,323 869 25.6% 15.4% 16.7% 19.3%
Teesdale AAP 4,725 5,619 6,545 1,820 926 38.5% 16.5% 19.3% 26.2%
Weardale AAP 1,547 1,903 2,367 820 463 53.0% 24.3% 19.3% 28.4%
County Durham 81,813 93,014 106,879 25,066 13,865 30.6% 14.9% 16.6% 20.4%
North East 419,200 452,600 514,903 95,703 62,303 22.8% 13.8% 16.5% 19.5%
England & Wales 1,017,500 9,296,100 10,673,780 9,656,280 1,377,680 949.0% 14.8% 1.9% 18.3%
Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates
Age group: 85+
33. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic and are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. All AAP areas have seen increases since 2001, although due to the smaller number involved the percentage changes range from increases of 4.6% to 174.4%.
Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by AAP area
34. The largest increase in this group was in the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP, an increase of 174.4% from 2001 which increased the number of people aged 85 and over from 246 to 675 in 2017. The 3 Towns AAP only increased by 4.6% over the same period, an increase of 25 people.
35. This trend is also seen over the shorter term period since 2011 except for the 3 Towns AAP and the 4 Together AAP which are the only areas to see this age group fall over this period, falls of 4.0%/23 and 3.3%/14 people respectively since 2011. The Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP increase by 35.8%/178 people over this same period. The table below summarises these changes.
36. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population and apart from the 3 Towns AAP a similar pattern can be seen across the other AAP areas. Across the 3 Towns AAP the proportion of the population aged 85 and over remained steady at 2.2%, slightly down from 2.4% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.
85%
95%
105%
115%
125%
135%
145%
155%
165%
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Weardale AAP
Durham AAP
Chester-le-Street & District AAP
Stanley AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
Spennymoor AAP
Teesdale AAP
Mid Durham AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
County Durham
East Durham Rural AAP
3 Towns Partnership AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
4 Together Partnership AAP
East Durham AAP
2001 Base
Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017
Population Number change % change Proportion
2001 2011 2017
from 2001
from 2011
from 2001
from 2011 2001 2017
3 Towns Partnership AAP 532 580 557 25 -23 4.6% -4.0% 2.4% 2.2%
4 Together Partnership AAP 354 422 408 54 -14 15.3% -3.3% 1.9% 2.3%
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 759 989 1,007 248 18 32.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 897 1,058 1,268 371 210 41.4% 19.8% 1.7% 2.3% Derwent Valley AAP 843 1,073 1,147 304 74 36.1% 6.9% 2.1% 2.5%
Durham AAP 942 1,202 1,452 510 250 54.1% 20.8% 1.6% 2.1%
East Durham AAP 1,455 1,790 2,039 584 249 40.1% 13.9% 1.6% 2.2%
East Durham Rural AAP 389 542 561 172 19 44.1% 3.6% 1.6% 2.2%
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 246 497 675 429 178 174.4% 35.8% 0.9% 2.5%
Mid Durham AAP 538 715 829 291 114 54.0% 15.9% 1.7% 2.5%
Spennymoor AAP 298 445 484 186 39 62.6% 8.6% 1.5% 2.2%
Stanley AAP 579 703 708 129 5 22.3% 0.7% 1.9% 2.1%
Teesdale AAP 543 740 839 296 99 54.5% 13.4% 2.2% 3.4%
Weardale AAP 198 218 240 41 22 20.8% 10.0% 2.5% 2.9%
County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,214 3,640 1,240 42.5% 11.3% 1.7% 2.3%
North East 43,000 56,300 63,819 20,819 7,519 48.4% 13.4% 1.7% 2.4%
England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,433,633 416,133 165,033 40.9% 13.0% 1.9% 2.5%
Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates
How does this topic link to our strategies and plans?
The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the
County Durham Partnership website.
Other links: www.durhaminsight.info
Durham Insight: Population and Deprivation
Sub-county profiles (under ‘Area Reports’)
Author: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team
Approver: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team
Published: November 2018
Review: November 2019
Data sources:
http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates
Appendix 1
Table 1: Population change by AAP - 2001 to 2017
Number (% change from 2001)
3 Towns Partnership AAP
4 Together Partnership AAP
Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP
Chester-le-Street & District
AAP
Derwent Valley AAP
Durham AAP East Durham
AAP County Durham
2001 22,588 18,564 41,367 53,679 40,287 58,467 92,688 493,689
2002 22,550 (-0.2) 18,388 (-0.9) 41,024 (-0.8) 53,875 (0.4) 40,664 (0.9) 58,230 (-0.4) 92,132 (-0.6) 493,538 (0.0)
2003 22,750 (0.7) 18,466 (-0.5) 41,257 (-0.3) 53,694 (0.0) 41,122 (2.1) 57,970 (-0.9) 91,868 (-0.9) 493,931 (0.0)
2004 23,175 (2.6) 18,594 (0.2) 41,260 (-0.3) 53,677 (0.0) 41,605 (3.3) 57,600 (-1.5) 91,812 (-0.9) 495,147 (0.3)
2005 23,472 (3.9) 18,652 (0.5) 41,527 (0.4) 53,623 (-0.1) 42,034 (4.3) 57,803 (-1.1) 92,233 (-0.5) 497,218 (0.7)
2006 23,759 (5.2) 18,573 (0.0) 41,412 (0.1) 53,833 (0.3) 42,401 (5.2) 58,792 (0.6) 92,463 (-0.2) 499,348 (1.1)
2007 24,162 (7.0) 18,317 (-1.3) 41,744 (0.9) 53,811 (0.2) 43,186 (7.2) 60,045 (2.7) 92,859 (0.2) 502,960 (1.9)
2008 24,517 (8.5) 18,050 (-2.8) 41,925 (1.3) 53,715 (0.1) 43,709 (8.5) 60,776 (3.9) 93,366 (0.7) 505,617 (2.4)
2009 24,649 (9.1) 17,910 (-3.5) 41,850 (1.2) 53,993 (0.6) 44,010 (9.2) 60,990 (4.3) 93,682 (1.1) 507,311 (2.8)
2010 24,717 (9.4) 17,774 (-4.3) 42,086 (1.7) 54,015 (0.6) 44,513 (10.5) 62,698 (7.2) 93,587 (1.0) 510,628 (3.4)
2011 24,853 (10.0) 17,660 (-4.9) 42,258 (2.2) 54,116 (0.8) 44,951 (11.6) 63,565 (8.7) 93,626 (1.0) 512,994 (3.9)
2012 24,811 (9.8) 17,570 (-5.4) 42,265 (2.2) 54,308 (1.2) 45,216 (12.2) 64,131 (9.7) 93,621 (1.0) 514,348 (4.2)
2013 24,885 (10.2) 17,504 (-5.7) 42,375 (2.4) 54,228 (1.0) 45,270 (12.4) 65,676 (12.3) 93,606 (1.0) 515,957 (4.5)
2014 25,011 (10.7) 17,547 (-5.5) 42,461 (2.6) 54,434 (1.4) 45,714 (13.5) 66,002 (12.9) 93,542 (0.9) 517,773 (4.9)
2015 25,107 (11.2) 17,675 (-4.8) 42,616 (3.0) 54,451 (1.4) 45,961 (14.1) 66,283 (13.4) 93,550 (0.9) 519,695 (5.3)
2016 25,313 (12.1) 17,714 (-4.6) 42,703 (3.2) 54,411 (1.4) 46,187 (14.6) 67,500 (15.4) 93,557 (0.9) 522,143 (5.8)
2017 25,204 (11.6) 17,629 (-5.0) 42,760 (3.4) 54,326 (1.2) 46,526 (15.5) 68,279 (16.8) 93,474 (0.8) 523,662 (6.1)
Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.
Table 1: Continued
Number (% change from 2001)
East Durham Rural AAP
Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP
Mid Durham AAP
Spennymoor AAP
Stanley AAP Teesdale AAP Weardale AAP County Durham
2001 23,853 26,697 31,973 20,055 30,990 24,459 8,023 493,689
2002 24,003 (0.6) 26,834 (0.5) 31,775 (-0.6) 20,251 (1.0) 31,029 (0.1) 24,638 (0.7) 8,145 (1.5) 493,538 (0.0)
2003 24,194 (1.4) 26,604 (-0.3) 31,697 (-0.9) 20,323 (1.3) 31,166 (0.6) 24,734 (1.1) 8,086 (0.8) 493,931 (0.0)
2004 24,322 (2.0) 26,782 (0.3) 31,535 (-1.4) 20,409 (1.8) 31,396 (1.3) 24,854 (1.6) 8,125 (1.3) 495,147 (0.3)
2005 24,426 (2.4) 26,764 (0.3) 31,566 (-1.3) 20,471 (2.1) 31,575 (1.9) 24,870 (1.7) 8,202 (2.2) 497,218 (0.7)
2006 24,466 (2.6) 26,611 (-0.3) 31,874 (-0.3) 20,476 (2.1) 31,536 (1.8) 24,928 (1.9) 8,224 (2.5) 499,348 (1.1)
2007 24,722 (3.6) 26,665 (-0.1) 32,001 (0.1) 20,525 (2.3) 31,750 (2.5) 24,870 (1.7) 8,303 (3.5) 502,960 (1.9)
2008 24,873 (4.3) 26,623 (-0.3) 32,221 (0.8) 20,541 (2.4) 32,074 (3.5) 24,915 (1.9) 8,312 (3.6) 505,617 (2.4)
2009 24,852 (4.2) 26,744 (0.2) 32,364 (1.2) 20,635 (2.9) 32,217 (4.0) 25,088 (2.6) 8,326 (3.8) 507,311 (2.8)
2010 25,129 (5.4) 26,840 (0.5) 32,640 (2.1) 20,623 (2.8) 32,476 (4.8) 25,144 (2.8) 8,386 (4.5) 510,628 (3.4)
2011 25,331 (6.2) 26,954 (1.0) 32,821 (2.7) 20,730 (3.4) 32,769 (5.7) 25,009 (2.2) 8,351 (4.1) 512,994 (3.9)
2012 25,427 (6.6) 27,015 (1.2) 32,777 (2.5) 20,963 (4.5) 32,856 (6.0) 25,057 (2.4) 8,331 (3.8) 514,348 (4.2)
2013 25,449 (6.7) 26,822 (0.5) 32,871 (2.8) 21,086 (5.1) 32,929 (6.3) 24,971 (2.1) 8,285 (3.3) 515,957 (4.5)
2014 25,566 (7.2) 26,774 (0.3) 32,994 (3.2) 21,265 (6.0) 33,025 (6.6) 25,178 (2.9) 8,260 (3.0) 517,773 (4.9)
2015 25,684 (7.7) 26,820 (0.5) 33,367 (4.4) 21,468 (7.0) 33,332 (7.6) 25,079 (2.5) 8,301 (3.5) 519,695 (5.3)
2016 25,776 (8.1) 26,895 (0.7) 33,444 (4.6) 21,698 (8.2) 33,591 (8.4) 24,986 (2.2) 8,368 (4.3) 522,143 (5.8)
2017 25,882 (8.5) 26,824 (0.5) 33,710 (5.4) 21,955 (9.5) 33,734 (8.9) 25,017 (2.3) 8,342 (4.0) 523,662 (6.1)
Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.
Appendix 2
Long Term (2001 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level
1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2017.
2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration.
3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,706 additional people between 2001 and 2017, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 236 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,470.
4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 36.7%, (an increase of 3,723 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,674 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 951 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.
5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 871 people and the Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 676 people during this period, falls of 12.9% and 8.4% respectively.
6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (236 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (635 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,148 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 472 to its population.
7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2017 with 951 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,674 out of all 66 MSOAs.
8. The area of Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 819 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.
Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA
Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by MSOA
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HordenAcre Rigg and Peterlee Central
BlackhallsPassfield and Shotton
Cockton Hill and Etherley DeneCornforth and Ferryhill
Belmont and CarvilleEasington Colliery South and Eden Hill
Beamish Ouston and UrpethDalton-le-Dale and Deneside
Spennymoor North and TudhoeEasington Colliery North
ShildonNewton Aycliffe East
Chester-le-Street SouthBournmoor and Great Lumley
Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe SouthFishburn and Trimdons
Henknowle and Woodhouse CloseLangley Park Cornsay and Satley
Coundon and Willington SouthBowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale
Hamsterley and StaindropSpennymoor-Green Lane and Dean…
Newton Aycliffe CentralThornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll
Chilton and Ferryhill StationLanchester
Chester-le-Street NorthPelton and Grange Villa
BrandonMidridge and Woodham Village
Stanhope and WolsinghamAnnfield Plain South and South Moor
Annfield Plain North and Dipton SouthDawdon and Seaham Harbour
Chester-le-Street West and Pelton FellBurnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie
Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor WestSherburn and West Rainton
Barnard Castle and StartforthBearpark and Witton Gilbert
Brasside and Newton HallSacriston and Waldridge
Bishop Middleham and SedgefieldMedomsley and ShotleyBowburn and Shincliffe
Hutton Henry and WingateFramwellgate Moor and Pity Me
Shotton CollieryStanley North and Kip Hill
Bishop Auckland and South ChurchCassop and Coxhoe
Crook North Howden-le-Wear and…Crook South and Willington North
Gilesgate MoorSeaham North and Seaton
Craghead and South StanleyByers Green and Spennymoor
Murton South and South HettonConsett West and Castleside
St Helens Auckland and West AucklandDelves and Leadgate South
Leadgate North and Consett EastLangley Moor and Nevilles Cross
Durham City
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Net NaturalChange
Migration
Medium Term (2011 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level
9. At a more local level, just under two thirds (41) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2017.
10. Around half of MSOAs (32) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 44 had positive net migration.
11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,833 additional people between 2011 and 2017, an increase of 18.0% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 75 and high positive migration into the area of 1,758 more people moving into the area than leaving.
12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 13.7%, (an increase of 1,666 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 2,026 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 360 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.
13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 500 people and Passfield and Shotton area (MSOA E02004329) which fell by 253 people during this period, falls of 7.8% and 3.7% respectively.
14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (133 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (367 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Passfield and Shotton was also due to net outward migration from the area (173 more people moving out of the area than in) and negative natural change with 80 more deaths than births during this period.
15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population between 2001 and 2017 (see above), showed no change between 2011 and 2017 with positive natural change of 178 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 178 more people moving out of the area than in.
16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2017 with 411 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 554.
17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 2,026 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 538 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.
Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA
Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by MSOA
-1,0
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HordenPassfield and Shotton
Newton Aycliffe CentralSpennymoor North and Tudhoe
Easington Colliery South and Eden HillBournmoor and Great Lumley
Leadgate North and Consett EastBelmont and Carville
Cornforth and FerryhillBeamish Ouston and Urpeth
Chester-le-Street NorthBlackhalls
Chester-le-Street SouthBowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale
Easington Colliery NorthBrandonShildon
Fishburn and TrimdonsHamsterley and Staindrop
Cockton Hill and Etherley DeneNewton Aycliffe East
Bishop Middleham and SedgefieldDalton-le-Dale and Deneside
Stanhope and WolsinghamAcre Rigg and Peterlee Central
Hutton Henry and WingateSeaham North and Seaton
Bearpark and Witton GilbertHenknowle and Woodhouse Close
Midridge and Woodham VillageThornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll
Langley Park Cornsay and SatleySherburn and West Rainton
Crook North Howden-le-Wear and…Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South
LanchesterAnnfield Plain North and Dipton South
Burnopfield Dipton North and TantobieCrook South and Willington North
Stanley North and Kip HillBarnard Castle and Startforth
Annfield Plain South and South MoorCoundon and Willington South
Bishop Auckland and South ChurchMurton South and South Hetton
Dawdon and Seaham HarbourChilton and Ferryhill Station
Sacriston and WaldridgeMedomsley and Shotley
Chester-le-Street West and Pelton FellPelton and Grange Villa
Framwellgate Moor and Pity MeSt Helens Auckland and West Auckland
Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor WestDelves and Leadgate South
Cassop and CoxhoeBrasside and Newton Hall
Shotton CollierySpennymoor-Green Lane and Dean…
Bowburn and ShincliffeCraghead and South Stanley
Gilesgate MoorByers Green and Spennymoor
Consett West and CastlesideDurham City
Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross
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Net NaturalChange
Migration
