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Study Results
Northwest Firmed Resource Option
This slide deck contains results from the 2012 TEPPC Study Program related to the Northwest Firmed Resource Option Studies. The generation results for the associated transmission expansion projects follow immediately along with flow information for the added transmission.
Hydro FirmingModeling Goal
• Compare different hydro dispatches in different wind conditions given various modeling techniques
• Compare path flows and production costs
Implementation StepsStart with 2022 PC23 NW Resource Option (+12,000 GWh)
1. Increase WECC annual energy demand 8%
2. Add 12,000 GWh of renewables to NW
3. Under the purview of high wind in a particular region, investigate how a nearby region’s hydro responds based on different types of modeling
4. Investigate how the changes listed above impact path flows
Add: 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS
Add transmission
Renewable Options Under High Load
Firmed Cases
Increase WECC-wide load 8%
1
2
4
For these regions
3 Add: firming resource
Gas
Hydro
Pumped storage
Increase WECC-wide load 8%1
2010 2022800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
Western Interconnection Annual Energy (GWh)10-Year Study Comparison
Common Case LRS
An
nu
al E
ner
gy
(GW
h)
8%
8% increase to peak and energy
10%
10% decrease to energy
Higher Load = Additional RPS Energy
Calculate ratios of planned renewables in TEPPC 2022 Common Case • Do not include existing resources• Do not include DG• IRP and LRS data
Apply ratio to study build-out of 12,000 GWh• Concept: development trends are best representation of
what could be added to each state • More resources available than what is identified in WREZ• More granular information from CPUC/CAISO
Locate resources using WREZ peer-analysis tool
Extrapolation Method
Add 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS 2
10-Year Study ResultsEC27a – NW Firming Study AEC27b – NW Firming Study B
Hydro
NW Firmed Resource CasesComparing Four Cases
Revelstoke
Shrum
Mica
+12,000 GWh (mostly wind)
+12,000 GWh (mostly wind)
+12,000 GWh (mostly wind)
Revelstoke
Shrum
Mica
Revelstoke
Shrum
Mica
Shrum
PC1-5High Load
PC23NW Resource Option
PC27aNW Firmed Resource
PC27bNW Firmed Resource
No added resources
Standard HTC modeling
+12,000 GWh resources +12,000 GWh resources
Fixed shape hydro from PC1-5 (no resources)
+12,000 GWh resources
Standard HTC modeling HTC modeling with price signals from a windy Northwest
Revelstoke
Mica
Compare
CompareCompare
Results1. Generation2. Hydro impact3. Path Flows
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(600,000) (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC23 Northwest vs. 2022 PC27a
GWh
Production cost decreased $27 M (.15%)
Dump energy increased 397 GWh (93%)
Emergency Energy decreased 6%
CO2 Emissions decreased 0%
AZ, OR, CA, WA
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC23 Northwest vs. 2022 PC27a
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
PC23 vs. PC27aNormal hydro Fixed hydro
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC23 Northwest vs. 2022 PC27b
GWh
Production cost decreased $6 M (.032%)
Dump energy increased 80 GWh (19%)
Emergency Energy decreased 0%
CO2 Emissions decreased 0%
AL, BC
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC23 Northwest vs. 2022 PC27b
Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
PC23 vs. PC27bNormal hydro NW $ Hydro
Conventional Hydro
Pumped Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration
IC
Negative Bus Load
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC27a vs. 2022 PC27b
GWh
Production cost decreased $22 M (.125%)
Dump energy increased 478 GWh (1649%)
Emergency Energy decreased 6%
CO2 Emissions decreased 0%
Alberta
Arizon
a
British
Colu
mbia
Califo
rnia
Colora
do
Idah
o
Mex
ico
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Texas
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC27a vs. 2022 PC27bHydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine
Cogeneration Renewable Other
GWh
PC27a vs. PC27bFixed hydro NW $ hydro
0 292 584 876 1168 1460 1752 2044 2336 2628 2920 3212 3504 3796 4088 4380 4672 4964 5256 5548 5840 6132 6424 6716 7008 7300 7592 7884 8176 8468 87600
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
BC - Hydro GenerationPC27a PC27b PC23 PC27a (Year Shape) PC27b (Year Shape)
PC23 (Year Shape)
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Energy moved
7560 7575 7590 7605 7620 7635 7650 7665 7680 7695 7710 7725 7740 7755 7770 7785 7800 7815 7830 7845 7860 7875 7890 7905 79200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
BC Hydro – 2 weeks in NovemberPC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
5760 5775 5790 5805 5820 5835 5850 5865 5880 5895 5910 5925 5940 5955 5970 5985 6000 6015 6030 6045 6060 6075 6090 6105 61200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
BC Hydro – 2 weeks in AugustPC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
0 292 584 876 1168 1460 1752 2044 2336 2628 2920 3212 3504 3796 4088 4380 4672 4964 5256 5548 5840 6132 6424 6716 7008 7300 7592 7884 8176 8468 8760
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
P03 Northwest-British Columbia - FlowsPC27a PC27b PC23 PC27a (Year Shape) PC27b (Year Shape)
PC23 (Year Shape)
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Congestion
Less S-N flow
S-N
5760 5775 5790 5805 5820 5835 5850 5865 5880 5895 5910 5925 5940 5955 5970 5985 6000 6015 6030 6045 6060 6075 6090 6105 6120
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
P03 Northwest-British Columbia – 2 weeks in AugustPC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
7560 7575 7590 7605 7620 7635 7650 7665 7680 7695 7710 7725 7740 7755 7770 7785 7800 7815 7830 7845 7860 7875 7890 7905 7920
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
P03 Northwest-British Columbia – 2 weeks in NovemberPC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
5760 5775 5790 5805 5820 5835 5850 5865 5880 5895 5910 5925 5940 5955 5970 5985 6000 6015 6030 6045 6060 6075 6090 6105 61200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
BC Hydro – 2 weeks in August
PC27a PC27b PC23 NW Wind
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
kk
7560 7575 7590 7605 7620 7635 7650 7665 7680 7695 7710 7725 7740 7755 7770 7785 7800 7815 7830 7845 7860 7875 7890 7905 79200
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
BC Hydro – 2 week in November
PC27a PC27b PC23 NW Wind
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
kk
0 292 584 876 1168 1460 1752 2044 2336 2628 2920 3212 3504 3796 4088 4380 4672 4964 5256 5548 5840 6132 6424 6716 7008 7300 7592 7884 8176 8468 87600
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Revelstoke - Entire Year w/ Year Shape Plot
PC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
PC1-5 (Year Shape) PC27a (Year Shape) PC27b (Year Shape) PC23 (Year Shape)
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
0 292 584 876 1168 1460 1752 2044 2336 2628 2920 3212 3504 3796 4088 4380 4672 4964 5256 5548 5840 6132 6424 6716 7008 7300 7592 7884 8176 8468 87600
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Gordon M. Shrum - Entire Year w/ Year Shape Plot
PC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
PC1-5 (Year Shape) PC27a (Year Shape) PC27b (Year Shape) PC23 (Year Shape)
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
0 292 584 876 1168 1460 1752 2044 2336 2628 2920 3212 3504 3796 4088 4380 4672 4964 5256 5548 5840 6132 6424 6716 7008 7300 7592 7884 8176 8468 87600
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Mica - Entire Year w/ Year Shape Plot
PC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
PC1-5 (Year Shape) PC27a (Year Shape) PC27b (Year Shape) PC23 (Year Shape)
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
2352 2366 2380 2394 2408 2422 2436 2450 2464 2478 2492 2506 2520 2534 2548 2562 2576 2590 2604 2618 2632 2646 2660 2674 26880
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Gordon M. ShrumPC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
2-weeks in April
6720 6734 6748 6762 6776 6790 6804 6818 6832 6846 6860 6874 6888 6902 6916 6930 6944 6958 6972 6986 7000 7014 7028 7042 70560
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Gordon M. Shrum PC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
2-weeks in October
2352 2366 2380 2394 2408 2422 2436 2450 2464 2478 2492 2506 2520 2534 2548 2562 2576 2590 2604 2618 2632 2646 2660 2674 26880
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Mica PC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
6720 6734 6748 6762 6776 6790 6804 6818 6832 6846 6860 6874 6888 6902 6916 6930 6944 6958 6972 6986 7000 7014 7028 7042 70560
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
MicaPC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
2352 2366 2380 2394 2408 2422 2436 2450 2464 2478 2492 2506 2520 2534 2548 2562 2576 2590 2604 2618 2632 2646 2660 2674 26880
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
RevelstokePC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
6720 6734 6748 6762 6776 6790 6804 6818 6832 6846 6860 6874 6888 6902 6916 6930 6944 6958 6972 6986 7000 7014 7028 7042 70560
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
RevelstokePC1-5 PC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
6840 6855 6870 6885 6900 6915 6930 6945 6960 6975 6990 7005 7020 7035 7050 7065 7080 7095 7110 7125 7140 7155 7170 7185 7200
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Category " P03 Northwest-British Columbia ", 20/23 of YearPC27a PC27b PC23
Hour of Year
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Questions or thoughts on this study?
