Study on Large-Scale Disaster Risk Assessment And

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Int. J. Disaster R isk Sci. 2010, 1 (2): 1-8doi: 10.3974/j. issn 2095-0055.2010.02.001

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S t u d y on L a r g e - S c a l e D i s a s t e r R is k A s s e s s m e n t a n d

R i s k T r a n s f e r M o d e l s

P eiju n S hi 1 ,2 ,3 ,* ,J i a b i n g S h u a i l a, W e n f a n g C h e n l a, a n d Li l i L u 1'2

1State Key L aboratory of Ea rth Surface Processes and R esource Ecology, Beijing Norm al University, Beijing 100875, China2Key Laboratory of Env ironmental Change and N atural Disasters, Min istry of Education of China, Beijing Norm al University,

Beijing 100875, China3Academy of D isaster Reduction and E mergency M anageme nt, M inistry of C ivil Affairs and M inistry of E ducation of China,

Beijng 100875, China

A b s t r a c t T h is a r t i c le a n a ly z e s th e r i s k a s s e s s me n t a n d

r isk t rans fe r mode ls o f la rge-sca le d isas te rs in l ine wi th the

charac te r is t ics o f such d isas te rs . A la rge-sca le d isas te r r isk

a s s e s s me n t mo d e l b a s e d o n th e Re g io n a l D is a s te r Sy s te m

concept is deve loped: la rge-sca le d isas te r r isk (RL) is a func-

t ion o f the d isas te r t r igger ing h azard (H) , the vu lnerab i l i ty o f

the conce rned ob jec ts (V) , and the s tab i l i ty o f the con tex tua l

h a z a rd - fo rma t i v e e n v i ro n me n t (E ) , o r R L = f ( H , V, E). Based

o n o u r d i s c u s s io n s , we p ro p o s e th a t l a rg e -s c a le d i s a s te r r i s k

t ra n s fe r i n Ch in a s h o u ld b e s u p p o r te d b y g o v e rn me n ts a t a l l

l e v e ls , o p e ra te d b y in s u ra n c e c o mp a n ie s , a n d th e re s p o n s i -

b i l i t ies shou ld be shared by a l l s takeho lders . At the g loba l

leve l , la rge-sca le d isas te r r isk t rans fe r shou ld employ a un i -

fo rm d e f in i t i o n a n d b e c h a ra c te r i z e d b y g o v e rn me n t s u p p o r t ,

marke t opera t ion , pub l ic par t ic ipa t ion , d isas te r mi t iga t ion , and

r isk shar ing .

K e y w o r d s Ch in a , l a rg e -s c a le d i s a s te r risk, risk a s s e s s m e n t

mode l , r isk t rans fe r mode l

1 I n t r o d u c t i o n

A l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r ( LSD ) i s a n y s e r i o u s d i s a s t e r t h a t c a u s e s

h e a v y h u m a n c a s u a l t i e s , h u g e p r o p e r t y l o s s e s , a n d a f f e c t s

wi d e a r e a s ; i t i s b a s e d o n a n y h a z a r d t h a t o c c u r s a t i n t e r v a l s

o f 1 0 0 y e a r s o r l o n g e r a n d c a n n o t b e c o p e d wi t h b y t h e

a f f e c t e d a r e a s wi t h o u t e x t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n s ( Sh i a n d L i u

2 0 0 9 ) . R i s k a s s e s s m e n t o f l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r s i s t h e b a s i s

f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g a ri s k t r a n s f e r m o d e l o f s u c h d i s a s t e r s a s we l l

a s t h e k e y f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e i r r i s k g o v e r n a n c e m o d e l s .

G u i d e d b y t h e R e g i o n a l D i s a s te r S y s t e m c o n c e p t ( S h i 2 0 0 9 )

a n d s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l r i s k a s s e s s m e n t m o d e l

( RL = f ( H , V ) ) a n d t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e d i s a s t e r c h a i n

chara c te r i s t i cs o f l a rge-s ca le d i sas te r s (Shi 1991) , th i s a r t ic l e

e s t a b l i s h e s a r i s k a s s e s s m e n t m o d e l o f l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r s

t o a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e i n t e n s i t y o f h a z a r d s , t h e v u l n e r a b i l -

i t y o f t h e e x p o s e d , a n d t h e s t a b i l i t y o f h a z a r d - f o r m a t i v e

* Correspond ing au thor . E-ma i l : sp [email protected]

e n v i r o n m e n t . Ba s e d o n t h i s m o d e l , t h e n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r r i s k

t r a n s f e r m e a s u r e s t h a t h a v e b e e n t a k e n b y C h i n a a n d o t h e rc o u n t r i e s , a n d t h e v a r i o u s c a s e s o f l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r s

e n c o u n t e r e d i n Ch i n a i n r e c e n t y e a r s , t h e Ch i n e s e a n d g l o b a l

r i s k t r a n s f e r m o d e l s f o r l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r s a r e s e t f o r t h t o

p r o v i d e a r e f e r e n c e f o r r e g i o n s a n d c o u n t r i e s t o e s t a b l i s h t h e

f i n a n c i a l m a n a g e m e n t s y s t e m o f l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r r i s k s .

2 D i s a s te r R i sk A s s e s s m e n t

I n v i e w o f i n c r e a s i n g n a t u r a l d i s a s t e rs , r e l e v a n t o r g a n i z a t i o n s

a n d e x p e r t s a r o u n d t h e wo r l d h a v e c o n d u c t e d i n - d e p t h s t u d i e s

o f d i s a s t e r r i s k s . T h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s D e v e l o p m e n t P r o -

g r a m m e ( U N D P ) h a s e s t a b l i s h e d t h e D i s a s t e r R i s k I n d e x

( DRI ) , wh i c h i s a c o u n t r y - l e v e l d i s a s t e r r i s k a s s e s s m e n t i n d e x

wi t h a g l o b a l s c a l e a n d e m p h a s i z e s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t we e n

n a t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t a n d d i s a s t e r r i s k s ( U N D P 2 0 0 4 ) . T h e

DRI i s a m o r t a l i t y - c a l i b r a t e d i n d e x t h a t m e a s u r e s t h e r i s k o f

d i s as t e rs c a u s i n g h u m a n m o r t al i ty . B a s e d o n t h e 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 0 0

d a t a , t h e DRI i s u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e a v e r a g e m o r t a l i t y

r i s k c a u s e d b y l a r g e - a n d m e d i u m - s c a l e e a r t h q u a k e s , t r o p i c a l

c y c l o n e s , f l o o d s , a n d d r o u g h t s . As c a n b e s e e n f r o m t h e

f o r m u l a R - H • P o p • V u l ( R - d e a t h t o l l o f p o t e n t i a l d i s a s -

t e r s; H - h a z a r d s , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e f r e q u e n c y a n d i n t e n s i t y

o f h a z a r d s ; P o p - t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f a f f e c te d a r e a s ; V u l -

v u l n e r a b i l i ty , d e p e n d i n g o n t h e s o c ia l , p o l it i c a l , a n d e c o n o m i cs t a tu s o f a f f e c t e d a r e a s ), t h e DR I i s d e t e r m i n e d j o i n t l y b y

h a z a r d s , h a z a r d e x p o s u r e s ( a f f e c t e d p o p u l a t i o n ) , a n d v u l n e r -

a b i li t y , b u t l a c k s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e e f f e c t o f t h e h a z a r d -

f o r m a t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t i n t h e d i s a s t e r s y s t e m , a s we l l a s o f

t h e p r o p e r t y l o s s e s a n d t h e d a m a g e s t o t h e r e s o u r c e s a n d t h e

e n v i r o n m e n t r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e s e d i s a s t e r s . I n m u l t i - h a z a r d

a s s e s s m e n t , t h e DR I c a l c u l a t e s t h e s u m o f a l l d i s a s t e r l o s s e s

( 4 t y p e s i n t o t a l ) . Th e r e f o r e , i t i s a d i s a s t e r r i s k a s s e s s m e n t

i n d e x wi t h i n a d e q u a t e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f d i s a s t e r r i s k s , b u t it is

e a s y t o a p p l y d u e t o i t s l o w d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t .

I n r e s p o n s e t o s o m e o f t h e d e f i c i e n c i e s i n th e DR I , t h e

W o r l d B a n k a n d C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y ( D i l l e y e t a l . 2 0 0 5 )

© 2010 Be i jing Normal Un ivers ity ISSN 2095-0055 www . i jd rs .o rg



2 Int . J . Disa ster Risk Sc i . Vol . 1, No. 2, 201 0

i n t rodu c e d the H o t spo t s Inde x . The H o t spo t s p ro j e c t ma in ly

a ims to i de n t i fy h igh - r i sk a re a s o f d i f f e re n t d i sa s t er s on a

g loba l sc a l e a nd e spe c i a l ly on the na t iona l a nd re g iona l sc a l es

to p rov ide a ba s i s fo r de c i s ion ma k ing fo r d i sa s t e r r i sk r e du c -

t i on . In a sse ss ing d i sa s t e r r i sk s , t he H o t spo t s a sse ssme n t

inde x ma in ly t a ke s i n to a c c ou n t mor t a l i t y - re l a t e d r i sk s a nd

e c onomic r i sk s c a u se d by d i sa s t e r s . H a z a rds c ons ide re d inH o t spo t s i nc lu de s ix t ype s o f na tu ra l ha z a rds , t ha t i s, f l oods ,

hu r r i c a ne s , e a r thqu a ke s , d rou gh t s , l a nds l ide s , a nd vo lc a n ic

e ru p t ions ; r i sk i nd i c a to r s i nc lu de mor t a l i t y , t o t a l e c onomic

lo ss , a nd p ropo r t ion o f e c onomic lo ss i n G D P; the d i sa s t e r

impa c t i nd i c a to r i nd i c a te s t he a re a s a f fe c t ed by the se ha z a rds ;

the vu lne ra b i l i t y i nd i c a to r i s ob t a ine d by c a l c u la ting the l o ss

ra te of d i f fe rent na tura l d isaste rs , using the h isto r ica l loss da ta

o f 2 0 y e a rs ( 1 9 8 1 - 2 0 0 0 ) i n th e E M - D A T d a t ab a s e m a i n t a i n e d

by the C e n t re fo r R e se a rc h o n the Ep ide mio lo gy o f D i sa s t e r s

(C R ED ) . The u n i t a sse sse d by H o t spo t s i s t he 2 .5 ' × 2 .5 ' g r id .

H o t spo t s ha s e s t a b l i she d the mu l t i -ha z a rd r i sk i nde x , w h ic h i s

the su m o f the r i sk i nde xe s o f d i sa s t e r s g ra de d f rom 8 to 1 0,tha t i s , those wi th re la t ive ly h igh r isk s ignif icance , on the

ba s i s o f c l a ss i fy ing e a c h ha z a rd r i sk i nde x in to 1 0 g ra de s . The

H o t spo t s Inde x ha s ove rc ome the p rob le m in t he D R I , w h ic h

fa i l e d to c ons ide r t he e c onomic lo sse s c a u se d by d i sa s t e r s ,

a nd i t s spa t i a l r e so lu t ion ha s a l so be e n improve d to some

extent , bu t i t s t i ll fa i l s to take in to ac count the ro le the h azard-

fo rma t ive e nv i ronme n t p l a ys a nd s t i l l show s ina de qu a te

c onc e rns fo r t he r isk s c a u se d b y d i sa s t e r c ha in s .

In v i e w o f the a bove d i sa s t e r a sse ssm e n t i nde x sys t e ms ,

the N a t iona l U n ive r s i t y o f C o lu mbia a nd the In t e r -A me r i c a n

D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k h a v e j o i n t l y d e v e l o p e d a S y s t e m o f I n d i-

c a to r s (S I ) fo r d i sa s t e r r i sk ma na ge me n t ( ID E A 2 005) , w h ic h

c ons i s t s o f fou r i nde x g rou ps : t he D i sa s t e r D e f i c i t Inde x

(D D I) , t he Loc a l D i sa s t e r Inde x (LD I) , t he P re va l e n t Vu lne r-

a b i l i t y Inde x (PVI) , a nd the R i sk Ma na ge me n t Inde x (R MI) .

The S I a ims to c a r ry ou t a sy s t e m a t i c qu a n t i t a ti ve e va lu a t ion

o f the d i sa s t e r r i sk ma na ge me n t i n c ou n t r i e s o f the A me r i c a s

in 1 980 -2 000 . The S I ha s , in a r e l a t i ve ly c ompre he ns ive

ma nne r , c ha ra c t e r i z e d d i sa s t e r s a nd lo sse s a s w e l l a s t he

c a pa c i ty o f r e c ov e ry a nd re c ons t ru c t ion , bu t s t i l l g ive s i na d -

e qu a te c ons ide ra t ion to t he r e g iona l e nv i ronm e n ta l c ond i t i ons

o f t he a f fe c t ed a re a s a nd i s ma in ly a va i l a b l e fo r sma l l - a nd

me d iu m-sc a l e d i sa s te r s . The S I ha s a l so inc lu de d mu l t i -

ha z a rd d i sa s t e r r i sk a sse ssme n t , u s ing mu l t i -ha z a rd r i sk

a gg re ga t ion fo r c a l c u la tion .

T h e U . S . F e d er a l E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t A g e n c y

(FEM A ) a n d the U .S . N a t iona l In s t i t u te o f B u i ld ing Sc i e nc e s

(N IB S ) jo in t ly de v e lope d a mu l t i -ha z a rd d i sa s t e r r i sk a sse ss -

m e n t m e t h o d , H A Z U S ( H a z a r d s U n i t e d S t a t e s ) ( F E M A

2 004) . The H A ZU S d i sa s t e r r i sk a sse ssme n t sy s t e m i s a s t a n -

da rd i z e d mu l t i -d i sa s t e r l o ss a sse ssme n t sy s t e m c ommonly

u se d in t he U n i t e d S ta te s , w h ic h e s t ima te s l o sse s on the ba s i s

o f t he sc i e n ti f ic u nde r s t a n d ing o f ha z a rds su c h a s e a r thqu a ke s ,

f l oods , a nd hu r r i c a ne s . The H A ZU S so f tw a re pa c ka ge i s

ba se d on r i sk a na ly s i s t oo l s on a G e ogra ph ic In fo rma t ion

Sys t e m s (G IS) p l a t fo rm. I t c on ta in s se ve n so f tw a re modu le s :

the po te n t i a l ha z a rds ( e a r thqu a ke s , f l oods , a nd hu r r i c a ne s ) ,

t he ha z a rd e xposu re da t a ba se , d i r e c t l o ss (p rope r ty l o ss ) ,

i nd i re c t l o ss (non -p rope r ty l o ss ) , soc i a l l o ss (hu ma n c a su a l -

t ies , evacuat ion and she l te r , e tc .) , d i rec t economic loss ( the

d i re c t lo ss o f t he f i na nc ia l ma rke t ) , a nd ind i re c t e c onom ic

lo ss ( t he i nd i rec t e c ono mic lo ss o f t he f i na nc ia l ma rke t ) .

H A ZU S c a n p rov ide ba s i c a nd de t ai l e d lo ss e s t ima te s o f t hea f fe c te d a re a s a nd m ore d e t a i le d lo ss e s t ima te s o f the bu i ld -

ings . C ompa re d to t he D R I , H o t spo t s , a nd S I , H A ZU S ha s

a s t ronge r c a pa b i l i t y o f ha nd l ing d i f f e re n t l o ss e s t ima te s o f

d i sa s t e r s a nd pa ys spe c i a l a t t e n t ion to d i sa s t e r c ha in s a nd

indirec t losses. I t s t i l l uses aggrega t ion for mul t i -hazard loss

e s t ima te s . In t e rms o f d i sa s t e r r i sk a sse ssme n t , i t ha s s t r i ct l y

fo l low e d the qu a n t i t a t ive m ode l a n d g ive n fu l l c ons ide ra t ion

to hazard , exposure , and vu lnerabi l i ty , bu t i t s t i l l g ives

l e ss c ons ide ra t ion to t he ha z a rd - fo rma t ive e nv i ronme n t i n a

d i sa s t e r sy s t e m.

T h e E u r o p e M u l t i- R i s k A s s e s s m e n t ( E U - M R A ) m o d e l

de ve lope d by the Eu rop e a n U n ion a sse sse s r i sk s o f na tura l

a nd t e c hn ic a l ha z a rds w i th in t he a sse sse d re g ion a nd c a r r i e s

ou t r isk e va lu a t ion o f t he d i sa s t e r sy s t e m u s ing the w e igh te d

su m me tho d (D e lph i Me thod ) (G re iv ing 2 006) . The in t e g ra t e d

d i s as t e r ri s k a s s e s s m e n t o f E U - M R A i n c lu d e s t h e c o m p i l a -

t i on o f s ing le -ha z a rd ma ps , i n t e g ra t e d ha z a rd ma ps (D e lph i

Me thod ) , i n t e g ra t e d vu lne ra b i l i t y ma ps ( c ompre he ns ive ly

c ha ra c t e r i z e d u s ing re g iona l pe r c a p i t a G D R popu la t ion

de ns i ty o f t he a f fe c t e d a re a s , r e g iona l na tu ra l f r a gme n ta t ion ,

a nd na t iona l pe r c a p i t a G D P) , a nd in t e g ra t e d r i sk ma ps (by

c la ss i fy ing in t e g ra t e d ha z a rd a nd in t e g ra t e d vu lne ra b i l i ty i n to

5 g ra de s r e spe c t ive ly t o fo rm a 5× 5 ma t r ix a nd the n a dd ing

u p to 9 i n t e g ra t e d r i sk g ra de s ; t he r e su l t is ma ppe d ) . B e i j i ng

N o r m a l U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i n a a l s o a d o p t e d a s i m i l a r m e t h o dto l a u nc h se ve ra l mu l t i -ha z a rd r i sk a sse ssme n t p ro j e c t s i n

diffe rent a reas (Shi e t a l . 2006; Wang e t a l . 2008) .

Th i s r e v i e w show s tha t r a p id p rog re ss ha s be e n a c h ie ve d

in the a sse ssme n t o f d i sa s t e r r i sk s . H ow e ve r , w i th r e ga rd

t o d e e p e n i n g t h e u n d e r s t an d i n g o f m e c h a n i s m s a n d p r o c e s s es

o f r isk fo rm a t ion o f r e g iona l d i sa s t e r sy s t e ms , p rob le m s s t il l

exist in three ma in a reas. Fi rst , r i sk eva lua t ion o f d isaste r

sys t e ms l a c ks c ons ide ra t ion o f the ha z a rd - fo rma t ive e nv i ron -

me n t . H a z a rd - fo rma t ive e nv i ronme n t s ha ve impor t a n t i n f lu -

e nc e s on d i sa s t e r fo rma t ion . Espe c i a l ly i n t he r i sk a sse ssme n t

o f d i sa s t e r c ha in s , i t i s e x t re me ly im por t a n t t o t a ke the ha z a rd -

fo rma t ive e nv i ronme n t i n to a c c oun t . Fo r i n s t a nc e , t he oc c u r -

re nc e o f a n e a r thqu a ke in a mou n ta inou s a re a i s l i ke ly t o t r ig -

ge r se c onda ry ge o log ic a l d i sa s t e r s su c h a s f a l l i ng roc ks a nd

la nds lide s . The sp a t i a l - te mpo ra l c om bina t ion o f ha z a rds , e x -

p o s u r e s a n d h a z a r d - f o r m a t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t s m a y a l s o

a mpl i fy o r r e du c e the se ve r i t y o f d i sa s t e rs . Th e fa c t t ha t t he

2 008 sou the rn C h ina snow sto rm be c a me a l a rge - sc a l e d i s -

a s t e r in t he sou the rn low -m ou n ta in a nd h i l l y a re a s w a s du e to

the c om bina t ion o f t he se t h re e f a c to r s . Se c ond , i na de qu a te

c ons ide ra t ion ha s be e n g ive n to d i sa s t e r c ha in s . Fo r a ny

ser ious na tura l d isaste rs , a long wi th the main d isaste r , there

u su a l ly a re a se r ie s o f se c ond a ry d i sa s t e r s, fo rm ing d i sa s t e r

c ha in s o f d i f f e re n t c ompos i t i ons . Va r iou s t ype s o f d i sa s t e r



Shi e t a l . S tudy on Large-Sca le D isas ter Risk Ass essm ent and Risk Trans fer Models 3

_ _ j 1 . . . . . t . . . . . ~ 2 = 1 ~

/

P o p u l a t i o n P L 1

i irope r t i e s P P l

N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s

A s s e t s N R A 1

P o p u l a t i o n PL 2

P rope r t i e s PP 2

N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s

A s s e t s N R A 2

F ig u r e 1 . S o c ia l a n d n a t u r a l s t a t e b e f o r e a n d a f te r t h e im p a c t o f re g io n a l m u l t i - h a z a r d s

c h a i n s e x p a n d t h e s c o p e o f a f f e c t e d a re a s , e x a c e r b a t e t h e

s e v e r i t y o f d i s a s t e r s , a n d a f f e c t t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f d i s a s t e r

l o s s e s . To e s t i m a t e a n y l o s s e s c a u s e d b y d i s a s t e r c h a i n s , i t i s

n e c e s s a r y t o c l e a r l y d e f in e t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a o f e a c h h a z a r d

d u r i n g a l a r g e - s c a l e d i s a s t e r a n d t o m o r e a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e

t h e l o s s e s c a u s e d b y d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s . Th i r d , d e s p i t e o f t h e

a t t e n t i o n g i v e n t o m u l t i - h a z a r d d i s a s t e r e s t i m a t i o n , a p p l i c a -

t i o n o f a s im p l e s u m o r w e i g h t e d s u m m e t h o d i s a c o m m o n

p r a c t i c e i n e s t i m a t i n g l o s s e s , a n d i t c a n h a r d l y r e f l e c t o b j e c -

t i v e l y t h e l o s s e s a r i s i n g f r o m m u l t i p l e h a z a r d s . Th e r e a s o n i s

t h a t i t f a i l s t o c o n s i d e r wh e t h e r o n e h a z a r d , h a p p e n i n g i n a

s p e c i f i c t i m e p e r i o d , h a s a n y i m p a c t o n t h e l o s s c a u s e d b y

t h e n e x t h a z a r d . I f th e i n t e r v a l b e t w e e n t h e t w o i s s h o r t, a s

t h e l o s s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s h a z a r d r e d u c e s t h e t o t a l

n u m b e r o r q u a n t i ty o f t h e e x p o s e d , t h e q u a n t i ty o f t h e

e x p o s e d s h o u l d b e a d j u s te d w h e n a s s e s s i n g t h e l o ss c a u s e d b y

t h e s u b s e q u e n t h a z a r d ; o t h e r wi s e , i t w i l l n o t b e n e c e s s a r y t o

c o n s i d e r th e c h a n g e o f th e e x p o s e d b e t w e e n t h e t w o e v e n t s .

Th u s , t o c a r r y o u t a n y r e g i o n a l d i s a s t e r r i s k a s s e s s m e n t ,

i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e f r e q u e n c y a n d i n t e n s i t y o fh a z a r d s , t h e s p a t i a l - t e m p o r a l d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f

t h e e x p o s e d , a s we l l a s t h e s t a b i l it y o f t h e h a z a r d - f o r m a t i v e

e n v i r o n m e n t , a n d t h e c o m b i n a t i o n a n d o v e r l a p p i n g o f t h e

t h r e e . I t is a l s o n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e d i s a s t e r r i s k r e s u l t in g

f r o m a s i n g l e h a z a r d a s we l l a s t o p a y c l o s e a t t e n t i o n t o

t h e r i s k r e s u l t i n g f r o m m u l t i p l e h a z a r d s , e s p e c i a l l y t h e r i s k

r e s u l t i n g f r o m a d i s a s t e r c h a i n f o r m e d d u r i n g m a j o r d i s a s t e r s .

I t is e q u a l l y n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f t h e

e x p o s e d i n th e f a c e o f a p a rt i c u la r h a z a r d o r g r o u p o f h a z a rd s

i n a sp e c i f i c t im e p e r i o d a s we l l a s t h e p o s s i b l e s u d d e n c h a n g e

i n th e v u l n e r a b i l i ty o f th e e x p o s e d d u e t o t h e f o r m a t i o n o f

d i s a s t e r c h a i n s c a u s e d b y t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f m u l t i p l e h a z a r d s

wi t h i n a s h o r t t i m e p e r i o d o r a s t r o n g h a z a r d .

3 R e g i o n a l M u l t i- H a z a r d a n d D i s a s t e rC h a in R i s k A s s e s s m e n t

S h i ( 2 0 0 9 ) h a s p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d h o w t o c o n d u c t m u l t i -

h a z a r d a n d d i s a s t e r c h a i n r i s k a s s e s s m e n t a n d e s t a b l i s h e d a

p r e l i m i n a r y c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l o f m u l t i - h a z a r d a n d d i s a s t e r

c h a i n a s s e ss m e n t . B a s e d o n t h e c o n c e p t u a l m o d e l ( R =

f(H, V, E)) a n d t h e a b o v e a n a l y se s , w e p r o p o s e a n e w m e t h o d

f o r r i s k a s s e s s m e n t o f m u l t i - h a z a r d s a n d d i s a s t e r c h a i n s .

3 .1 R e g i o n a l M u l t i- H a z a r d L o s s A s s e s s m e n t M o d e l

M u l t i - h a z a r d s r e f e r t o t h e p h e n o m e n o n t h a t a n a r e a c a n

e n c o u n t e r s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s i n a c e r t a i n p e r i o d o f ti m e .

Assuming the a rea i s P , P a t t ime 7 '1 i s in i t s in i t i a l s t a t e ,

t h e i n i t ia l v a l u e s o f th e c o n c e r n e d o b j e c t s , o r t h e e x p o s e d ,

a r e : p o p u l a t i o n = PL1 , t o t a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e = PP1 , n a t u r a l

r e s o u r c e s a s s e t s = NRA 1 . M u l t i - h a z a r d i m p a c t e v a l u a t i o n i s

c o n d u c t e d a t ti m e T2. Th e d i s a s t e r - a f f e c t e d s t a t e o f a r e a P i s:

p o p u l a t i o n = PL2, t o t a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e = PP2 , n a t u r a l r e s o u r -

c e s a s s e t s = NRA2 . As s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 , t h e o v e r a l l i m p a c t

o f m u l t i - h a z a r d s i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e d i f f e re n c e b e t w e e n s t a te

P(T2) a n d s t a te P(T1), wh i c h i s e x p r e s s e d i n f o r m u l a ( 1 ) :

L m ul ti -h . . . d = P ( T 1 ) - - P ( T 2 ) E q . 1

L m u l t i - h . . . . d r e p r e s e n t s t h e l o s s r e s u l ti n g f r o m m u l t i - h a z a r d s

wi t h i n t h e t i m e s e g m e n t ( 7'1, T : ), P(T1) r e p r e s e n t s t h e s o c i a l

a n d e c o n o m i c s t a t e ( p o p u l a t i o n , t o t a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e , a n d

n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a s s e t s ) o f a r e a P a t t h e m o m e n t o f T1 , t h a t

i s t h e p r e - d i s a s t e r i n i t i a l s t a t e , P ( T : ) r e p r e s e n t s t h e s o c i a la n d e c o n o m i c s t a t e o f a r e a P a t t h e m o m e n t o f T :. Ge n e r a l l y ,

Lmulti_hazard ~ 0 .

A s s u m i n g t h e h a z a r d s e n c o u n t e r e d b y a r e a P a r e A , B , a n d

C, F i g u r e 2 s h o w s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e t h r e e h a z a r d s b y t i m e

a n d i n t e n s i t y i n t h e t i m e s e g m e n t ( T1 , T2 ). O n t h e h o r i z o n t a l

a x i s , d i f f e re n t h a z a r d s a l t e r n a t e ; o n t h e v e r t i c a l a x i s , d i s a s t e r

i n t e n s i t y ( v a l u e s o f t h e v e r t i c a l a x i s a r e r e l a t i v e i n t e n s i t y )

d i f fe r s . Ea c h d i s a s t e r s h o w s a d i f f e r e n t s c o p e o f i m p a c t .

F i g u r e 3 s h o w s t h e s c o p e o f i m p a c t o f m u l t i -h a z a r d s

( d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s , a r e a s c o v e r e d

. ~ 1 0

s

6

4 • •

2 • •• • •

T1 tl t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t: t8 t9

H a z a r d s

, A

l l B

A C

T2

Time

F ig u r e 2. D is t r i b u t io n o f m u l t i - h a z a r d s in a r e a P b y tim e a n d

in tens i ty



4 In t . J . D is aste r R isk Sci . Vol . 1 , No. 2, 201 0

. . . . : : " . . . : : : :: : : . .: : : : : : : ~ . . : . : : . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. .. . : : : : ;: : : ~ ? : : : ; : : ; : ; : : : : : : ~ ; , ,/ , , ~ . . , . . . : : . ~ : . . ? ; : : ~ : . : . . : : . . : . . . . . : : ~ . : . : . ; : : ~ . ~ . . : . ; : : . . : . ~ . . . : , .

~ . . . . .. . . ) : . . . . : . . .. ) . . . . . q . . . ~ . . . : . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . , q . . . . . . . . . . • . .% . . . . . , . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . / . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

: . : . : : :: ~ . . : : : : ~ . ~ , : . : : : : ~ : : . : . : : : : : :. : . : : : : :: : : : : . : ; :: ~ x : : : : : A 2, . . . ~ . . / . . . . , . . . / . . . . , . . . / , . . . , ~ . . . , . . . % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . , . .. . . . .

: . : , . . : . . : . : ,. " . .: : . : . : , . > : . : . : , . : : : . : . : , . ? " . . : . : , . : ' : . . : . : . : . . . . : . : . : . , . . : . : . .. : . . : : , ~ : . . : : , . : : . . : : . . . . : . . . : : . . : . . . . : : . . . : . : . . , . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

" - : : : . .' : , : : :: ~ " , : : : : ? " , : : : : . . ~ " , : " . , " . . . : , " ' B 1~" :' :~: ?i::,i..i : ! :-: : :

, ~&x'-v,~x',,'%~',,'-~

• , . . : . .: " 5 . : ' : . . ; : . . .

~ . , . . : : . . - : . . . : : , . . . . . . .: : . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . , . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . .. , . . .

~ ' , . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , , - ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . :

= = = = = = = = == = = = = = = = == = = = = = = == = = = " z : : x " " ~ : ". . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . % . . . . .

• . . . , . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . , . . . . . , . . , . . , . . . . . . . . .

:~: ;ii::; ;iii:i?:iiiii ;i?,:, . , . . . . . . . , . . . . . . , . . . •

. . . . .

F i g u r e 3 . I l l u s tr a t i o n o f m u l t i - h a z a r d a f f e c t e d a r e a s i n

a r e a P

r e p r e s e n t t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a s , a n d A, B , a n d C r e p r e s e n t t h r e e

h a z a r d s ) . Th e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t we e n t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a s o f

d i f f e r e n t d i s a s te r s f a l l s i n t o t wo c a t e g o r i e s : o n e i s t h e s p a t i a l

o v e r l a p p i n g o f t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a s , s u c h a s t h e c a s e o f A2, B1,

a n d C~ . I m p a c t o f s u c h o v e r l a p p i n g o n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t o t a l

l o s s e s c a n b e f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o t wo t y p e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e

d i f f e r e n t t i m e i n t e r v a l s b e t we e n t h e o c c u r r e n c e s "

( 1 ) Fo r d i s a s t e r s wi t h e x t r e m e l y s h o r t t i m e i n t e r v a l , i t i s

i m p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e l o s s c a u s e d b y d i f f e r e n t d i s a s t e r s

wi t h i n th e o v e r l a p p i n g a r e a . Th e t o t a l l o s s f r o m A2, B~, and C~

c a n b e e x p r e s s e d a s :

L o s s ( A 2 ~ B 1 ~ C 1 ) - L o s s ( A 2 ) + L o s s ( B 1 ) + L o s s ( C 1 )

- L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ) - L o s s ( A 2 ~ C ~ )

- L o s s ( B 1 ~ C 1 )

+ L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ~ C ~ ) E q . 2

I n Eq . 2 , L o s s ( A 2 k _) B~ ~ C I ) r e p r e s e n t s t h e t o t a l l o s s

caused col l ec t ive ly by A2, B~ , and C~; L o s s ( A 2 ) , L o s s ( B ~ ) ,

a n d L o s s ( C ~ ) r e p r e s e n t i n d i v i d u a l l y t h e l o s s f r o m A2, B1,

and C~; L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ), L o s s ( A 2 ~ C ~ ), L o s s ( B ~ ~ C I ) , a n d

L o s s ( A 2 0 B~ ~ C~) r e p r e s e n t t h e p o r t i o n o f d u p l i c a t e d

c a l c u l a t i o n i n wo r k i n g o u t t h e l o s s e s f r o m A2, B1, and C~.

( 2 ) Fo r o c c u r r e n c e s wi t h r e l a t i v e l y l o n g t i m e i n t e r v a l t h a t

e x c e e d s t h e r e c o v e r y t i m e o f t h e e a r l i e r d i sa s t e r s , i t i s p o s s i b l e

t o i d e n t i f y t h e l o s s f r o m d i f f e r e n t d i s a s t e rs . T h e t o t a l l o s s d u e

to A2, B1, a n d C~ c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d w i t h t h e f o r m u l a :

L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ~ C ~ ) - L o s s ( A 2 ) + L o s s ( B ~ ) + L o s s ( C ~ ) E q . 3

T h e o t h e r c a t e g o r y i s th e n o n - o v e r l a p p i n g o f a ff e c te d

a r e a s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e c a s e o f A~ , B2, a n d C2. Th e t o t a l l o s s o f

t h e t h r e e d i s a s t e r s c a n b e e x p r e s s e d a s "

L o s s ( A ~ ~ B 2 ~ C2) - L o s s ( A ~ ) + L o s s ( B 2 ) + L o s s ( C 2 ) E q . 4

T h e m u l t i -h a z a r d l o s s e s o f a r e a P c a n b e e x p r e s s e d a s :

L O S S = L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ~ C I ) + L o s s (A ~ ~ B 2 ~ C2)

- L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ~ C ~ ) + L o s s ( A ~ ) + L o s s ( B 2 )

+ L o s s (C 2 ) E q . 5

W h e r e , w h e n d u e t o t h e v e r y s h o r t i n t e r v a l b e t w e e n t h e

o c c u r r e n c e o f A2, B1, and C~ i t i s imposs ib le to ident i fy the

l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m d i f f e r e n t d i s a s t e r s i n t h e o v e r l a p p i n g

are as ,

L o s s ( A 2 ~ B 1 ~ C 1 ) - L o s s ( A 2 ) + L o s s ( B 1 ) + L o s s ( C 1 )

- L o s s ( A 2 ~ B 1 ) - L o s s ( A 2 ~ C 1 )

- L o s s ( B ~ ~ C I ) + L o s s ( A 2 ~ B ~ ~ C~);

W h e n t h e r e l a t iv e l y l o n g i n t e rv a l b e t w e e n t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f

A2, B1, a n d C~ e x c e e d s t h e r e c o v e r y t i m e o f e a r l i e r d i s a s t e r s ,

i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m d i f f e r e n t

d i sas te r s ,

L o s s ( A 2 ~ B 1 ~ C 1 ) - L o s s ( A 2 ) + L o s s ( B 1 ) + L o s s ( C 1 ) .

W i t h e q u a t i o n 5 , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o a s s e s s t h e l o s s e s o f

r e g i o n a l m u l t i - h a z a r d s .

3 . 2 R e g i o n a l D i s a s t e r C h a i n L o s s A s s e s s m e n t

D i s a s t e r c h a i n s r e fe r t o t h e p h e n o m e n o n o f a s e r ie s o f d i s a s -t e r s c a u s e d b y a n o t h e r d i s a s t e r ( Sh i 1 9 9 1 ) . W e h a v e p r o p o s e d

f o u r c o m m o n t y p e s o f d is a s te r c h a in s : t y p h o o n - s t o r m , c o l d

a i r m a s s e s , d r o u g h t s , a n d e a r t h q u a k e s ( Sh i 2 0 0 2 ) . D i s a s t e r

c h a i n s h e r e i n r e f e r t o t h e n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r c h a i n s , wh i c h h a v e

t h r e e f e a t u r e s . ( 1 ) I n d u c i b i l i t y : a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s

b e t we e n d i s a s t e r c h a i n c o m p o n e n t s , t h a t i s , o n e o r s e v e r a l

t y p e s o f d i s a s t e r s a r e i n d u c e d b y a n o t h e r t y p e o f d i s a s t e r .

Co n s i d e r i n g t h i s i n d u c i b l e e f f e c t , d i s a s t e r c h a i n s a r e c l a s s i -

f i e d a s e i th e r s e q u e n t i a l d i s a s t e r c h a i n s o r c o n c u r r e n t d i s a s t e r

c h a i n s ( Sh i 1 9 9 1 ) . M u l t i p l e d i s a s t e r s wi t h o u t s u c h c a u s a l

r e l a t i o n s h i p d o n o t c o n s t i t u t e a d i s a s t e r c h a in . ( 2 ) T i m e s c a le :

d u e t o t h e i n d u c i b l e e f f e c t w i t h i n a d i s a s t e r c h a i n , d i s a s t e r s

t a k e p l a c e i n s e q u e n c e , t h a t i s , a m a i n d i s a s t e r c o m e s b e f o r e

s e c o n d a r y d i s a s t e r s . S o m e d i s a s t e r s m a y i n d u c e a n o t h e r

d i s a s t e r s e v e r a l y e a r s , d e c a d e s , a n d e v e n h u n d r e d s o f y e a r s

l a te r . Du e t o t h e i r e x c e s s i v e l y l o n g t i m e s c a l e , s u c h i n d u c i b l e

e f f e c t s c a n b e i g n o r e d a n d t h e s e d i s a s t e r s c a n b e t r e a t e d a s

s e p a r a t e d i s a s t e r s t o b e a s s e s s e d s e p a r a t e l y i n s t e a d o f b e i n g

t r e a t e d a s p a r t o f a d i s a s t e r c h a i n . Th e t i m e s c a l e o f d i s a s t e r

c h a i n s i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y s h o r t . ( 3 ) Sp a t i a l s c a l e : a s e r i o u s

d i s a s t e r wi l l o f t e n g e n e r a t e s e c o n d a r y d i s a s t e r s a n d i t s

a f f e c t e d a r e a w i l l b e e x p a n d e d . D i f f e r e n t h a z a r d - f o r m a t i v e

e n v i r o n m e n t s s h o w d i f f e r e n t s e n s i t i v i t y t o d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s ,

w h i l e s o m e e n v i r o n m e n t s a r e b a s i c a l l y i n s e n s i t i v e t o a

s p e c i f i c h a z a r d . Th e r e f o r e , d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s h a v e d i f f e r e n ta f f e c t e d a r e a s . F i g u r e 4 i s a n i l lu s t r a t i o n o f th e a f f e c t e d a r e a

o f a d i s a s t e r c h a i n , i n wh i c h A r e p r e s e n t s t h e m a i n h a z a r d , B ,

C , a n d D r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t s e c o n d a r y h a z a r d s , a n d E l , E2 ,

a n d E 3 r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d - f o r m a t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t s .

Af t e r t h e m a i n h a z a r d A t o o k p l a c e , i t s a f f e c t e d a r e a f a l l s

i n E l , E2 , a n d E3 . As d i f f e r e n t e n v i r o n m e n t s h a v e d i f f e r e n t

s e n s i t i v i t y t o d i f f e r e n t h a z a r d s , A m a y i n d u c e t h e s e c o n d a r y

h a z a r d B i n E~ , wh o s e a f f e c t e d a r e a i s n o t l i m i t e d t o t h a t o f A .

W h e n B h a s h a p p e n e d i n i t s e n v i r o n m e n t , a s u b - s e c o n d a r y

h a z a r d m a y b e i n d u c e d , a n d s o o n . S i m i l a r l y , t h e i n t e r a c t i o n

b e t we e n A a n d E2 o r E3 i n d u c e s t h e s e c o n d a r y d i s a s t e r s D

a n d C .



S h i e t a l. S t u d y o n L a rg e - S c a l e D i s a s t e r R i s k A s s e s s m e n t a n d R i s k T r a n s f e r M o d e l s 5

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I I i a I i I I

' . I i . r 5, , . ' " ~ f : 2. ' i I / i D / •

F i g u re 4. I l l u s tra t i o n o f t h e sp a t i a l r e l a t i o n sh i p s b e t w een

d i s a s t e r -c h a i n a f f e ct e d a r e a s a n d t h e e n v i r o n m e n t

B a s e d o n t h e t h r e e f e a t u r e s o f t h e d i s a s t e r c h a i n s , w e

d e v e l o p e d a g e n e r a l m e t h o d f o r d i s a s t e r c h a i n a s s e s s m e n t a s

p r e s e n t e d b e l o w .

3 . 2 . 1 A f f e c te d A r e a o f D i s a s t e r C h a i n s

D e t e r m i n i n g t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a o f a d i sa s t e r c h a i n i n v o l v e s

a s s e s s i n g h a z a r d H a n d e n v i r o n m e n t E a n d t h e i r i n te r a c t i o ns .

T h e i n t en s i t y i n d i ca to r o fh az a r d H i s H ; = { / -/1 , H 2 , /- /3 , . . . , H , }

( i = 1 , 2 , 3 , . . ., n ) , i t i n d i ca t e s t h e s t r en g th o f t h e h aza rd . T h e

o v era l l e n v i r o n m en t E c an b e d iv id ed in to E ; = {E l , E 2 , E 3 , . .. ,

E , } ( i = 1 , 2 , 3 , . .. , n ) . W h e n E en co u n te r s an i n i t i a l d i sa s t e r A ,

t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a w i l l d i f f e r w i t h t h e d i f f e r e n t i n t e n s i t y o f HAg.

G i v e n t h e h a z a r d H o f m a i n d i s a s t e r A a n d E ; i n it s a f f e c t e d

a rea , H h as a c r i t i ca l v a lu e H o g. W h e n H > H og , i t w i l l r e su l t

i n s e c o n d a r y d i s a s t e r B . I n a s i m i l a r w a y , w e c a n a s s e s s t h e

a f f e c t e d a r e a o f H ; a n d E ; o f s e c o n d a r y d i s a s t e r B , a n d t h e

a f f e c t e d a r e a o f th e e n t i r e d i s a s t e r c h a i n , w i t h t h e p r o c e d u r e

s h o w n i n F i g u r e 5 .

I n p r a c t i c e , a c a l c u l a t i o n c a n b e m a d e f o r e a c h g r i d t o

d e t e r m i n e t h e h a z a r d i n t e n s i t y a n d e n v i r o n m e n t t y p e i n t h e

g r i d i n o r d e r t o d e f i n e t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a o f d i sa s t e r s. W i t h

l i m i t e d d a t a t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a c a n a l s o b e c o m p u t e d o n a

c o u n t y b a s i s .

3 . 2. 2 L o s s A s s e s s m e n t b y A r e a s a n d H a z a r d s

W i t h i n t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a s o f d is a s t e r c h a i n s , s o m e a r e a s a r e h i t

b y a s i n g le h a z a r d a n d s o m e b y m u l t i - h a z a r d s . T h e r e f o r e , l o s s

a s s e s s m e n t o f d i s a s te r c h a i n s n e e d s t o b e u n d e r t a k e n b y a r e a s

a n d b y h a z a r d s . A s s h o w n i n F ig u r e 4 , t he l i g h t g r e y a r e a s a r eh i t b y a s i n g l e h a z a r d , t h e d a r k g r e y a r e a s b y t w o h a z a r d s , a n d

th e l o s s f ro m each h a za rd A , B , C , an d D i s:

Aloss =f(E o, V~, HA + H ~ + H ~ + H ~ )

Bloss =f (E , , v~, H~ + H ~ )

Closs-f(E~, Vc, Hc + H~ )

D l o s s - f ( Q , V~, H ~ + H ~ ) E q . 6

' L : : : ; : / -

i /',",.,5.,:. '," ...

/ :~ ..... .. , A

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~" " ~ / E N~ / / . . . ." 7, / "-

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F i g u r e 5 . A s s e s s m e n t p r o c e d u r e f o r a f f ec t e d a r e a s o f d i s a s t e r c h a i n s




In equat ion 6 , E0 = E1A + EZA + E3A.

The to ta l loss of a d isaste r cha in is :

L O S S = f ( E , V , H A + H , + H c + t i p + H A . + H A c + HA D ) E q . 7

In e qu a t ion 7 , E- Eo + E1 + E2 + E3; V - VA + V , + Vc + VD.

For the a re a s h i t by mu l t i -ha z a rds , t he mu l t i -ha z a rd

a sse ssme n t me thod i s u se d , w h i l e fo r t he a re a s h i t by as ing le -ha z a rd , t he s ing le -ha z a rd a sse s sme n t me thod i s u se d .

3 . 3 R e g i o n a l D i s a s t e r R i s k A s s e s s m e n t

B a se d o n the l o ss a sse ssme n t o f r e g iona l mu l t i -ha z a rds a nd

d i sa s t e r c ha in s , t he oc c u r re nc e f r e qu e nc y a nd in t e ns i ty o f

ha z a rds w i th in t he r e g ion , a nd the c ha ng ing t r e nd o f r e g iona l

ha z a rd e xposu re a nd ha z a rd - fo rma t ive e nv i ronme n t , r e g iona l

d i sa s t e r r i sk c a n be a sse sse d . In p ra c t i c e , w e ne e d to f i r s t

i de n t i fy the t ype s o f ha z a rds i n t he r e g ion w i th in a spe c i f i e d

t ime pe r iod a nd the t ype s o f the ha z a rd - fo rma t ive e nv i ron -

me n t , a nd ide n t i fy t he t ype s o f t he r e g iona l d i sa s t e r c ha in s

a c c o rd ing ly . Se c ond , ba se d on obse rva t ion da t a o f ha za rds ,

w e ne e d to c a l c u la t e t he e xc e e da nc e p roba b i l i t y o f d i f f e re n t

ha z a rds a t d i f f e re n t l e ve l s. Th i rd , t h ro u gh c o r re l a t ion a na ly s i s

o r e xpe r ime n t a n d s imu la t ion , w e ne e d to p re pa re t he vu lne r -

a b i l it y c u rve s t o d i f f e re n t ha z a rds . Fou r th , by m e a ns o f G IS ,

w e ne e d to p re pa re h igh spa t i a l - t e mpora l r e so lu t ion ma ps o f

ha z a rd e xposu re s ( su c h a s popu la t ion , p rope r ty , r e sou rc e s ,

a nd so on ) . B a se d on the a bove , w e c a n a sse ss t he r e g iona l

disaste r r i sk (Rr = f (Hr, Vr, Er)).

4 R i s k T r a n s f e r M o d e l o f L a r g e - S c a l e

D i s a s t e r s

In l ine w i th t he p ra c ti c e o f LSD r i sk gove rna nc e in C h ina ,

w e ha ve p ropose d to i n t e g ra t e sa fe ty bu i ld ing (d i sa s t e r

p ro t e c t ion ) , d i sa s t e r r e l i e f , e me rge nc y ma na ge me n t , a nd r i sk

t r a ns fe r to fo rm the s t ru c tu ra l sy s t e m o f LS D r i sk gove rna n c e

a nd c oo rd ina t e p re pa re dne ss , e me rge nc y re sponse , r e c ove ry ,

a nd re c ons t ru c t ion to fo rm the fu nc tiona l sy s t e m o f LS D r i sk

gove rna nc e (Sh i 1 991 ) . F rom the se d i sc u ss ions , w e c onc lu de

tha t e s t a b l i sh ing a r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l o f LSD i s o f c r it i c al

impor t a nc e in t he s t ru c tu ra l sy s t e m a s w e l l a s t he fu nc t iona l

s y s t e m o f L S D r i s k g o v e r n an c e . L o s s e s c a u s e d b y n a t ur a l

d i sa s t e r s show c l e a r r e g iona l va r i a t i ons . Sma l l ha z a rds c a n

c a u se hu ge da ma ge s a nd v i c e ve r sa . N a tu ra l ha z a rds a l so

ha ve t e mpora l va r i a t i ons . H igh - in t e ns i ty e ve n t s oc c u r a t

l ow e r f r e qu e nc y , l ow - in t e ns i ty e ve n t s oc c u r a t h ighe r f r e -

qu e nc y . The re fo re , i t i s ne c e ssa ry to e xp lo re t he t r a ns fe r

mode l s fo r d i f f e re n t d i sa s t e r r i sk s , e spe c i a l ly t he t r a ns fe r

a pp roa c h o f LS D r i sk s . Fo r a ny reg ion , t he fo rma t ion o f

LSD r i sk s i s o f t e n c lo se ly a ssoc i a t e d w i th t he ove r l a pp ing

o f mu l t i -ha z a rds a nd the oc c u r re nc e o f d i sa s t e r g rou ps a nd

d i sa s t e r c ha in s , w h ic h i s one imp or t a n t r e a son tha t w e d i sc u ss

mu l t i -ha z a rd a nd d i sa s t e r c ha in r i sk a sse ssme n t .

In v i e w o f t he e xpe r i e nc e s a nd l e ssons o f C h ina in c op ing

w i th LS D s , i t i s c ru c i a l t o e s t a b l i sh LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l s

a long w i th c a r ry ing ou t a f fo rda b le d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion , d i s -

a s t e r r e l ie f , a nd e me rge n c y ma na g e m e n t ba se d on the c u r re n t

l e ve l o f e c onom ic de ve lopme n t . H ow e ve r , du e to t he a gg ra-

va t ing r e g iona l d i spa r i t y i n e c onomic de ve lopme n t a nd the

u rba n - ru ra l d iv ide in C h ina , d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion l e ve l s a l so

show a c l e a r r e g iona l d i f f e re nc e , ove ra l l d i sa s t e r r e l i e f c a pa c -

i t y i s s t i l l c ompa ra t ive ly l ow , a nd e me rge nc y ma na ge me n tha s ju s t s t a rt e d . The re fo re , on the ba s i s o f e xa min ing the LSD

r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l s e s t a b l i she d in the W e s te rn c ou n t r ie s , i t i s

ne c e ssa ry to de ve lop LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l s su i t a b l e fo r

the s i tua t ions in China . In addi t ion , fu r ther deve loping and

improv ing the g loba l LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l s su i t a b l e fo r

d i f f e re n t na t iona l , r e g iona l , a nd g loba l c ond i t i ons ba se d on

the c ha ra c t e r is t i c s o f LSD s i s a n impor t a n t t a sk o f c l ima te

c ha nge a da p ta t ion a nd d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion a nd re du c t ion a t t he

globa l leve l .

4 .1 A C h i n e se L S D R i s k T r a n s fe r M o d e l

In o rde r t o mo t iva t e t he gove rnme n t , t he pu b l i c a nd loc a l

c ommu ni t i e s , a nd in su ra nc e c ompa n ie s t o be a c t ive ly

i n v o l v e d in L S D r i s k m a n a g e m e n t a n d c o n s i d e ri n g t h e w e a k

r i sk a w a re ne ss , l ow in su ra nc e c ove ra ge , r e l a t i ve ly l ow d i s -

a s t e r p ro t e c t ion l e ve l s , a nd ge ne ra l ly h igh na tu ra l d i sa s t e r

r i s ks t h a t h av e b e e n c o m m o n l y o b s e r v e d i n C h i n a , w e h a v e

p ropose d , a s a ne w LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l , t ha t LSD r i sk

t ra ns fe r shou ld be su ppor t e d by gove rnme n t s a t a l l l e ve l s ,

ope ra t e d by in su ra nc e c ompa n ie s , a nd the bu rde n sha re d by

a l l s t a ke ho lde r s . G ove rnme n t su ppor t s i nc lu de de ve lop ing

d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion me a su re s o f a c e rt a in s t a nda rd in c omm u -

n i t i e s , g ra n t ing c e r t a in p re miu m su bs id i e s t o po l i c y ho lde r s ,

e xe m pt ing in su ra nc e bu s ine sse s f rom re l e va n t t a xa t ion , g ra n t -ing in t e re s t d i sc ou n t s t o r e in su ra nc e c ompa n ie s fo r e xc e ss

o f l o ss, a nd s t i pu la ting c om pu l so ry in su ra nc e a re a s o f LS D s

th rou gh l e g i s l a t i on . In su ra nc e c ompa n ie s shou ld de t e rmine

re g iona l p re miu m l e ve l s fo r d i f f e re n t ha z a rds ( su c h a s

e a r thqu a ke s , t yphoons , f l oods , a nd d rou gh t s ) a nd e s t a b l i sh

in su ra nc e se rv i c e s fo r LS D s a c c o rd ing to ma rke t -ba se d ru l e s ;

r e in su ra nc e c om pa n ie s shou ld u nde r t a ke r e in su ra nc e se rv i c e s

fo r LSD s fo r i n su ra nc e bu s ine ss ; r e s ide n t s a nd o rga n iz a t ions

(e n te rp r i se s , i n s t i t u t i ons , a nd so on ) shou ld pu rc ha se LSD

insu ra nc e . A s a r e su l t , sma l l - sc a l e d i sa s t e r r i sk ma na ge me n t

w i l l r e ly on c ommu ni t i e s , me d iu m-sc a l e d i sa s t e r r i sk ma n-

a ge m e n t w i l l r e ly on loc a l gove rnme n t s , se r iou s d i sa s t e r r i sk

w i l l be sha re d by the c e n t ra l gove rnme n t , l oc a l gove rnm e n t s ,

i n su ra nc e po l i c y ho lde r s (na tu ra l pe r sons o r l e ga l pe r sons) ,

a nd in su ra nc e a nd re in su ra nc e c ompa n ie s , a nd LSD r i sk

w i l l be sha re d by the c e n t ra l gove rnme n t , i n su ra nc e po l i c y

ho lde r s , i n su ra nc e a nd re in su ra nc e c ompa n ie s , a nd o the r

in t e rna t iona l f i na nc ia l i n s t i t u t ions ( su c h a s ba nks a nd

securi t ies companies) (Shi , Wang, Wang, e t a l . 2009) .

4 .2 E s t a b l i s h i n g a G l o b a l L S D R i s k T r a n s f e r M o d e l

In r e c e n t ye a r s , some in t e rna t iona l o rga n iz a t ions ha ve pa id

spe c i a l a t te n t ion to the e s t a b l i shm e n t o f LS D r i sk t r a ns fe r



S h i e t a l. S t udy on L a rge -S c a l e D i s as t e r R is k A s s es s m en t and R i s k T rans f e r M ode l s 7

m o d e l s . T h e O r g a n i s a t i o n f o r E c o n o m i c C o - o p e r a t i o n a n d

D e v e l o p m e n t ( O E C D ) o r g a n i ze d L S D f i n a n c ia l m a n a g e m e n t

c onsu l t a n t s a nd e xpe r t s t o c ompi l e t he book Financial Man-

agement of Large-Scale Catastrophes ( O E C D 2 0 0 8 ) , w h i c h

d i s cu s s e s f in a n c ia l m a n a g e m e n t m o d e l s o f L S D s f o r O E C D

c ou n t r i e s a nd non -OEC D c ou n t r i e s a nd foc u se s on the i n t e r -

a c t ion o f r isk r e du c t ion a nd in su ra nc e in r e du c ing the imp a c to f LSD s , a nd the imp or t a nc e o f s t r a te g i c gove rna nc e a ga in s t

u n fo re se e a b le LS D s . R e se a rc h fe l l ow s o f the In t e rna t iona l

In s t it u t e fo r A pp l i e d Sys t e ms A na lys i s ( I IA S A ) foc u se d on

the gove rna nc e o f LSD r i sk s by u s ing f ina nc ia l i n s t ru me n t s

a nd e nha nc ing LSD a id (L inne roo th -B a ye r , Me c h le r , a nd

Pf lu g 2 005) . The Sw iss R e re in su ra nc e c ompa ny p ropose d to

i s su e LSD bonds a nd to de s ign d i f f e re n t LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r

mod e l s fo r d i f f e re n t g ra de s o f d i sa s t e r r isk s c a u se d by va r iou s

ha z a rds (Sh i , W a ng , W a ng , e t a l. 2 009 ) . B a se d on the e xpe r i -

e nc e s a nd l e ssons o f C h ina in c op ing w i th LSD s , w e p ro pose

to e s t a b l i sh the fo l low ing g loba l LS D r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l .

F i r s t , pa y c lo se a t t e n t ion to t he t r e nd o f c l ima te c ha nge

and c l imate mit iga t ion and instabi l i t ies in the g loba l c l imate

sys t e m: th rou gh e ne rgy sa v ing , e miss ion re du c t ion , a nd

s ink e nha nc e me n t , m i t iga t e g loba l w a rming a nd re du c e the

ma gn i t i t u de o f i n s t a b i li t y o f the g loba l c l ima te sy s t e m ( su c h

a s e x t re me d ry a nd w e t w e a the r s , e x t re me c o ld a nd w a rm

w e a the r s , a nd inc re a s ing f r e qu e nc y o f d i sa s t rou s w e a the r a nd

c l imate events) . To th is end, on a g loba l sca le , s t rengthen the

de ve lopme n t o f a g re e n e c onomy a nd inc re a se t he ve ge ta t ion

c ove r o f t he e a r th su r fa ce to s low the t r e nd o f g loba l w a rm ing

a nd re du c e va r i a b i l i ti e s i n t he c l ima te sy s t e m.

Se c ond , de c ide on the de f in i t ion o f LSD s: m a ke u se o f

the a va i l a b l e da t a obse rve d on ma jo r ha z a rds a nd se t fo r th

the LSD - indu c ing in t e ns i ty i nd i c a to r o f ha z a rds ; ma ke u se o fa va i l a b le d i sa s t e r l o ss da t a a nd se t fo r th i nd i c a to r s fo r hu m a n

c a su a l t i e s , p rope r ty l o sse s , a nd re sou rc e s da ma ge du e to

LSD s; u se d i f f e re n t e a r th obse rva t ion t e c hno log ie s a nd G IS

a nd G PS t e c hno log ie s a nd se t fo r th i nd i c a to r s fo r t he ge o -

g ra ph ic sc ope o f d i sa s t e r -a ffe c t e d a nd d i sa s t e r - s tr i c ke n a re a s

du e to LSD s . B y in t e g ra t ing the a bove th re e se ts o f i nd ic a to r s ,

w e c a n de f ine LSD s . A t p re se n t , some f ina nc ia l i n s t i t u t ions

de f ine LSD s on ly by the l o sse s c a u se d by the c onc e rne d

d i sa s t e r s , w h ic h c a n ha rd ly be ge ne ra l i z e d in c ou n t r i e s a nd

re g ions w i th ma jo r d i f f e renc e s i n i nc ome , t e r r i t o ri a l a re a , a nd

de g re e o f d i sa s t e r impa c t . In r e sponse , w e ha ve p ropo se d tha t

LSD i s a ny ha z a rd tha t ha s a one -hu ndre d ye a r r e c u r re nc ein t e rva l ( inc lu d ing e a r thqu a ke s w i th a ma gn i t i t u de o f a bove

7 .0 ), de a th s o f ove r 1 0 ,000 pe r sons , d i r e c t e c onom ic lo sse s

o f 1 0 b i l l i on Eu ros , o r 1 00 ,000 kn ] 2 o f se r iou s a nd e x t re me ly

se r iou s d i sa s t e r- s t r i c ke n a re a s . A s long a s a ny tw o o f t he fou r

s t a nda rds a re me t , a na tu ra l d i sa s t e r c a n be de f ine d a s a LSD

(Shi , Wang, Xu, e t a l . 2009) .

Th i rd , l e t bo th the ma rke t a nd the gove rnme n t l e a d

the p roc e ss : t h rou gh ma rke t me c ha n i sms , de f ine r e a sona b le

p re miu ms fo r LSD in su ra nc e ; a nd th rou gh the gove rnme n t ,

i nc re a se t he d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion l e ve l o f i n su ra nc e t a rge t s .

A n y LSD in su ra nc e ou gh t to fo l low the "ma jo r i t y ru le . " Thu s ,

the p ro t e c t ion c a pa c i ty o f ta rge t s a f fe c t e d by h igh inc ide nc e

mu s t be improve d . Fo r e xa mple , fo r a g r i c u l tu ra l d i sa s t e r

in su ra nc e in C h ina , e xpe r i e nc e s show tha t on ly w he n c rops

a nd a n ima l hu sba nd ry d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion r e a c he s t he l e ve l

tha t p re pa re d fo r d i sa s t e rs o f 1 0 -2 0 y e a r r e c u r re nc e in t e rva l,

o r ru ra l hou s ing d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion r e a c he s t he l e ve l t ha t

p re pa re d fo r d i sa s t e r s o f 2 0 - 50 ye a r r e c u r re nc e in t e rval , c a n

d i sa s t e r i n su ra nc e p rodu c t s be de s igne d . A s fo r t he w or ld ,on ly u pon re a c h ing the l e ve l o f LS D s c a n g loba l LSD in su r-

a nc e p rodu c t s (on hu ma n de a th , p rope r ty l o ss , r e sou rc e s da m-

age , and so on) be establ ished. To th is end, i t i s c ruc ia l to

de p loy a de qu a te ly t he f i na nc ia l r e sou rc e s o f gove rnm e n t s a nd

inc re a se t he d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion l e ve l o f t a rge ts t o be i n su red .

Fou r th , a t t a c h g re a t impor t a nc e to t he d ive r s i f i c a t ion

o f fi na nc ia l ma na ge m e n t i n s t ru me n t s fo r LSD r i sk s : w h i l e

m a k i n g u s e o f L S D i n s ur a n c e a n d r e in s u r an c e , L S D b o n d s ,

a nd LSD op t ions , a de qu a te ly mob i l i z e t he pa r t i c ipa t ion o f

fu nds a nd c om me rc i a l ba nks . I t i s a l so ne c e ssa ry to ma k e u se

o f dona t ions a nd va r iou s nongove rnme n ta l o rga n iz a t ions

su c h a s vo lu n te e r o rga n iz a t ions t o i nc re a se t he soc i e t a l

c a pa c i ty i n LS D r i sk t r a ns fe r.

B a se d on the a bove fou r p roposa l s , w e be l i e ve tha t a

ma tu re m ode l o f g loba l LSD r i sk tr a ns fe r shou ld be c ha ra c -

t e r i z e d by a c ons i s t e n t de f in i ti on o f LSD s , go ve rnm e n t

su ppor t , ma rke t ope ra t ion , pu b l i c pa r t i c ipa t ion , d i sa s t e r

mi t iga t ion , a nd r i sk sha r ing . I t r e qu i res t ha t a u n i fo rm g loba l

de f in i t ion o f LSD s i s a g re e d u pon ; t ha t t he re i s a de qu a te

f ina nc ia l su ppor t f rom na t iona l gove rnme n t s i n i nc re a s ing

d i sa s t e r p ro t e c t ion l e ve l s ; t ha t t he ope ra t iona l c a pa c i ty o f

d i f f e ren t f i na nc ia l i n s t i tu t ions i nc lu d ing in su ra nc e c omp a n ie s

i s a de qu a te ly de p loye d ; t ha t pu b l i c a nd c o mm u ni ty pa r t ic ipa -

t i on i s mo b i l i z e d in a c tions o f LSD r i sk ma n a ge m e n t ; a nd

tha t the d i sa s t e r r i sk i ndu c ing a nd p rom ot ing e f fe c t s o f hu ma nact iv i t ies i s energe t ica l ly reduced, and the in tegra ted d isaste r

p re ve n t ion a nd re du c t ion c a pa c i ty i s i nc re a se d , i n o rde r t o

fo rm a g loba l i n t e g ra t e d LS D r i sk t r a ns fe r sy s t e m o f d i sa s t e r

r i sk a nd de ve lopme n t a c h ie ve me n t s sha r ing .

5 C o n c l u s i o n

W e p r o p o s e d a n e w L S D r i s k a s s e s s m e n t m o d e l b a s e d o n a

sc ru t iny o f the s t a tu s qu o o f d i sa s t e r r isk a sse ssm e n t , w h ic h

inc lu de s e nv i ronm e n t s t a b i l i t y so t ha t t he im pa c t o f t he

e nv i ronme n t on d i sa s t e r l o sse s a re t a ke n in to a c c ou n t . Losse va lu a t ion mode l s o f mu l t i -ha z a rds a nd d i sa s t e r c ha in s w e re

a l so de ve lope d , w h ic h w i l l f a c i l i t a t e r e g iona l LSD r i sk

a sse ssme n t by c ons ide r ing a l l t he ha z a rds t ha t c a n poss ib ly

oc c u r i n a r e g ion , t he vu lne ra b i l i t y o f t he e xpose d , a nd the

c ond i t i ons o f the e nv i ronm e n t .

LS D in su ra nc e i s one o f the e f fe c t ive w a ys to t r a ns fe r

LSD r i sk s . W e s tu d ie d C h ina ' s p ra c t i c e i n gove rn ing LSD

r i sks a nd p ropose d the LSD r i sk t r a ns fe r mode l fo r C h ina :

LSD in su ra nc e shou ld be su ppor t e d by gove rnme n t s a t a l l

l e ve ls , ope ra t e d by in su ra nc e c om pa n ie s , a nd re spon s ib i l i ti e s

shou ld be sha re d by a l l s t a ke ho lde r s . W i th th i s mode l , t he

gove rnme n t , bu s ine sse s , c ommu ni t i e s , a nd ind iv idu a l s a re




s u p p o s e d t o p l a y s e p a r a t e b u t e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e s i n m i t i-

g a t i n g L S D r i sk s . M e a n w h i l e , t h e g l o b a l L S D r i s k t r a n s f e r

m o d e l s h o u l d b e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a c o n s i s t e n t d e f i n i t i o n

o f L S D s , g o v e r n m e n t s u p p o r t s , m a r k e t o p e r a t i o n , p u b li c

p a r t i c i p a t i o n , d i s a s t e r m i t i g a t i o n , a n d r i s k s h a r i n g , w h i c h

m o t i v a t e s n a t i o n a l g o v e r n m e n t s , b u s i n e s s e s , a n d c i t i z e n s t o

i m p r o v e c a p a c i t ie s i n d is a s t e r p r e v e n t i o n a n d r e d u c t io n .

A c k n o wle d g m e n ts

T h i s r e s e a r c h w a s s p o n s o r e d b y t h e I n te r n a t i o n a l ( R e g i o n a l )

E x c h a n g e P r o j e c t o f t h e N a t i o n a l N a t u r a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n

o f C h i n a , C a s e S t u d y o n C o r e S c i e n c e P r o j e c t s o f I H D P - I R G

( 4 0 8 2 1 1 4 0 3 5 4 ) a n d th e I n t e rn a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i o n P r o j e c t o f

t h e M i n i s t r y o f S c ie n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y , G l o b a l C l i m a t e

C h a n g e a n d C a t a s tr o p h e G o v e r n a n c e ( 2 0 0 8 D F A 2 0 6 4 0 ) .

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