Study of Economic Growth & Development

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    MAHATMA EDUCATION SOCIETYS

    PILLAI COLLEGE OF ARTS COMMERCE AND SCIENCENEW PANVEL

    RE-ACCREDITED BY NAAC WITH A GRADE

    A PROJECT

    ON

    STUDY OF PROCESS COSTING

    In the subject Economics of Development & Growth

    SUBMITED TO

    UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI,

    FOR SEMISTER-I OF

    MASTER OF COMMERCE

    BY

    PRIYAL SHAH.

    1917

    UNDER THE GUIDENCE OF

    PROF.AARTI SUKHEJA

    YEAR-2012-2013

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    MAHATMA EDUCATION SOCIETYS

    PILLAI COLLEGE OF ARTS COMMERCE AND SCIENCENEW PANVEL

    RE-ACCREDITED BY NAAC WITH A GRADE

    I, Miss. Priyal shah. student of M.Com Part-I Roll number 1917 hereby declare that the projectfor the Economic of Development & Growth titled,

    Study of Economic Growth & Development

    Submitted by Me for Semester-I During The academic year 2012-2013, is based on actual work

    carried out by me under the supervision of Prof.Aarti Sukheja.

    I further state that this work is original and not submitted anywhere else for any examination.

    Signature of student

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    MAHATMA EDUCATION SOCIETYS

    PILLAI COLLEGE OF ARTS COMMERCE AND SCIENCENEW PANVEL

    RE-ACCREDITED BY NAAC WITH A GRADE

    This is to certify that the undersigned have assessed and evaluated the project on

    Study Of Economic Growth & Development(between India & China)

    Submitted by Miss.Priyal Shah.Student of M. Com Part-I.

    This project is original to the best of our knowledge and has been accepted forInternal Assessment.

    Internal Examiner:- Principal:-

    Prof. Aarti Sukheja Dr.Dephne Pillai

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    MAHATMA EDUCATION SOCIETYS

    PILLAI COLLEGE OF ARTS COMMERCE AND SCIENCENEW PANVEL

    RE-ACCREDITED BY NAAC WITH A GRADE

    The successful completion of project involved the contribution of time andefforts. This project would never have been completed without the valuable help

    extended to us by the subject teacher and project guide Prof. Aarti Sukheja.

    Secondly would like to thank our Principal Dr. Daphne Pillai and Vice

    Principal Mr. A. N. Kutty for providing us such a prestigious institution.

    Last but not least I would like to thank our Parents for making us capable in

    doing this project and giving their continuous support and guidance.

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    ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH

    Introduction

    In recent years, there has come into existence a new branch of economics Known

    as the "Economics of Development". It refers to the problems of the economic

    development of underdeveloped or backward countries. In addition to the

    illuminating reports of the U.N.O. on the subject, some top ranking economists like

    Nurkse, Dobb, Staley, Buchanan, Rostow and Ellis have made some original

    contributions to the Economics of Development. The main reason for the growing

    popularity of "Economics of Development" as a separate branch of economic

    theory is the increasing tendency on the part of the newly independent countries of

    Asia and Africa to resort to developmental planning as a means to eliminate their

    age-old poverty and raise living standards.

    Meaning of Economic Development

    Economic development is a process whereby an economy's real national income

    as well as per capita income increases over a long period of time. Here, the process

    implies the impact of certain forces which operate over a long period and embody

    changes in dynamic elements. It contains changes in resource supplies, in the rateof capital formation, in demographic composition, in technology, skills and

    efficiency, in institutional and organisational set-up. It also implies respective

    changes in the structure of demand for goods, in the level and pattern of income

    distribution, in size and composition of population, in consumption habits and

    living standards, and in the pattern of social relationships and religious dogmas,

    ideas and institutions. In short, economic development is a process consisting of a

    long chain of inter-related changes in fundamental factors of supply and in the

    structure of demand, leading to a rise in the net national product of a country in thelong run.

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    Definitions of Economic Development

    The term 'economic development' is generally used in many othersynonymous

    terms such as economic growth, economic welfare, secular change,social

    justiceand economic progress. As such, it is not easy to give any precise and clear

    definition of economic development. But in view of its scientific study and its

    popularity, a working definition of the term seems to be quite essential.

    Economic development, as it is now generally understood, includes

    thedevelopment of agriculture, industry, trade, transport, means of irrigation,

    power resources, etc. It, thus, indicates a process of development. The sectoral

    improvement is the part of the process of development which refers to the

    economic development. Broadly speaking, economic development has beendefined in different ways and as such it is difficult to locate any single definition

    which may be regarded entirely satisfactory. Below given definition of UNEC

    1. United Nations Expert Committee(UNEC)According to this Committee, "Development concerns not only

    man'smaterial needs but also the improvement of the social condition of his

    life.Development is, therefore, not only economic growth, but growth plus

    changesocial, cultural and institutional as well as economic". This

    definitionencompasses economic and non-economic aspects of development.Thisdefinition stresses on the expansion of development variables, and also

    improvingthe quality of those variables. For example, capital is a

    development variable.Not only the increased quantity of capital is needed

    but the improvement in itsproductivity is also required for development.

    Similar instances can be given inrespect of other development variables. The

    central point of this definition isthat quantitative and qualitative changes in

    development variables are consideredessential ingredients of economic

    development.

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    Characteristics of Developing Countries

    1. Low life expectancy is measured against the average age that theindividual is expected to reach

    2. Low standard of education- Education and training determine thestandard according to which the population of a country functions andproduces goods and services. One must remember that there are

    approximately 80 million children in the poor South who do not go to

    school at all, therefore one can understand why poor countries are faced

    with unemployment. Without the necessary training people cannot be

    prepared for a vocation. This means that such people have no chance of

    improving their own conditions.

    3. Poor health care-The percentage of a countrys budget that is allocated to health serviceslargely determines the standard of health care in that country. If we

    consider the average percentage of 4% in developing countries as opposed

    to the 96% in developed countries as shown on the graph on page 12, it is

    easy to understand why the hospitals in many poor countries are in such a

    shocking condition. There are simply not enough doctors and facilities for

    the number of inhabitants of the countries.

    4. Unemployment-Over-population and low literacy are some of the main causes of

    unemployment. Everybody would like to have a job in order to make

    money to earn a living. People who are unemployed cannot be self-

    supporting and therefore they are unable to make any contribution to the

    economy of the country.

    5. Poor nutrition and limited access to safe water-Only 43% of the worlds food production comes from countries that

    accommodate 80% of the global population. This, together with the low

    life expectancy and inadequate education and training, as well as

    insufficient industries, provides a recipe for malnutrition (a condition thatarises when people do not eat enough nourishing food). Approximately

    30% of the children in the poor Countries do not have enough food to eat

    every day.

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    In developing countries many people are dependent on a stream or a river

    for their daily supply of fresh water. The water from these sources is not

    always safe and clean and if people use the water just as it is, it could lead

    to outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, which cause many deaths every

    year.

    Threats to Developing Countries:

    1.Significance of Industrial Sector-Most of the developed countries in the world have given much

    importanceof the development of industrial sector. They have large capacities

    to utilise resources of production, to maximise national income and to provide

    employment for the jobless people. As we are quite aware that these

    countriesreceive the major portion of their national income from the non-

    agriculture sectors which include industry, trade, transport, and communication

    For instance,England generally receives nearly 50% of her national income

    from industrialsector, 21% from transport and commerce, 4% from agriculture

    and 25% from other sectors. The same case is with the U.S.A., Japan and other

    West European countries. But in India and other developing countries

    agriculture contributes, say, 35 to 40 percent, to their national income.

    2.High Rate of Capital FormationDeveloped countries are generally very rich, as they maintain a high

    levelof savings and investment, with the result that they have huge amount of

    capitalstocks. The rate of investment constitutes 20 to 25 percent of the total

    nationalincome. The rate of capital formation in these countries is also very

    high.Besides this, well-developed capital market, high level of savings,

    broaderbusiness prospects and capable entrepreneurship have led to a high

    growth ofcapital formation in these economies.

    3.Use of High Production Techniques and SkillsHigh production techniques and skills have become an essential partofeconomic development process in the developed countries. The new

    techniqueshave been used for the exploitation of the physical human resources.

    Thesecountries have, therefore, been giving priority to the scientific research,

    so asto improve and evolve the new and technique of production.

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    Consequently,these countries find themselves able to produce goods and

    services of a betterequality comparatively at the lesser cost. It is because of the

    use of highproduction techniques and latest skills, that the countries like Japan,

    Germanyand Israel could have developed their economies very rapidly, though

    theyhave limited natural resources.

    4.Low Growth of PopulationThe developed countries, like the U.S.A., the U.K. and other

    WesternEuropean countries have low growth of population because they have

    lowlevel of birth rate followed by low level of death rate. Good health

    conditions,high degree of education and high level of consumption of the

    people have ledto maintain low growth of population followed by low level of

    birth and deathrates. The life expectancy in these countries is also very high.

    The high rate ofcapital formation on the one hand and low growth of

    population have resultedin high level of per capita income and prosperity inthese countries. Consequently,the people in these countries enjoy a higher

    standard of living and work togetherunitedly for more rapid economic and

    industrial development of the nations.Besides this, the entire society, its

    structure and values are found to be Economic dedicated to the goal of rapid

    economic and industrial development. The positionof individuals in the society

    is decided by the ability of the persons and not bytheir birth, caste or creed.

    Dignity of labour is maintained. The economic motiveand strong desire to lead

    a better social life always inspire people to contributeto the process ofdevelopment. The main objective of rapid economicdevelopment, particularly

    in the developed economies is to achieve the level ofstagnant economic

    growth, so that they may maintain the existing economicstatus and exercise

    control over business cycle.

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    Economic Development and Economic Growth

    Normally in economic textbooks, growth and development are used

    synonymously, and this usage is widely acceptable. However, in particular, thetwo

    terms have been distinguished by different economists as follows;

    1. To some economists, economic development refers to the process

    ofexpansion of backward economies, while economic growth relates to that of

    advanced economies.

    2. Schumpeter, however, uses the term "economic development" as

    aspontaneous and discontinuous change in the stationary state which disturbs the

    equilibrium state previously existing. And the term "economic growth" is used to

    denote a steady and gradual change in the long run which comes through a generalincrease in the rate of saving and population in a dynamic Economy

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    Factors Affecting Economic Growth

    The process of economic growth is a highly complex phenomenon and I

    influenced by numerous and varied factors such as political, social and

    culturalfactors. As such economic analysis can provide only a partial explanation

    ofthis process. To repeat here the remark of Prof. Ragnar Nurkse in thisconnection,

    "Economic development has much to do with human endowments,social attitudes,

    political conditions and historical accidents. Capital is a necessary but not a

    sufficient condition of progress". The supply of natural resources, the growth of

    scientific and technological knowledge-all these too have a strong bearing on the

    process of economic growth. We shall briefly notice some of these factors one by

    one.

    A. Economic Factors

    The following are the important factors which determine the economic

    growth of an economy.

    1. Natural Resources

    The principal factor affecting the development of an economy is the natural

    resources. Among the natural resources, we generally include the land area and the

    quality of the soil, forest wealth, good river system, minerals and oil resources,good and bracing climate, etc. For economic growth, the existenceof natural

    resources in abundance is essential. A country deficient in natural resources may

    not be in a position to develop rapidly. In fact natural resourcesare a necessary

    condition for economic growth but not a sufficient one. Japanand India are the two

    contradictory examples. As pointed out by Lewis, "otherthings being equal man

    can make better use of rich resources than they can ofpoor". In less developed

    countries, natural resources are unutilized, underutilizedor misutilised. This is one

    of the reasons of their backwardness. There is littlereason to expect naturalresource development if people are indifferent to the products or service which

    such resources can contribute. This is due to economicbackwardness and lack of

    technological factors.

    According to Professor Lewis, A country which is considered to be poor in

    resources may be considered very rich in resources some later time, not merely

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    because unknown resourcesare discovered, but equally because new methods are

    discovered for the knownresources". Japan is one such country which is deficient

    in natural resources but it is one of the advanced countries of the world because it

    has been able todiscover new use for limited resources.

    2. Capital Formation

    Among several economic factors, capital formation is another important

    factor for development of an economy. Capital may be defined as the stock

    ofphysical reproducible factors of production. Capital accumulation and

    capitalformation, both of these terms carry the same meaning which may be

    understoodsimply by the stock of capital. As we know, capital formation is

    cumulative and self-feeding and includes three interrelated stages; a) the existence

    of realsavings and rise in them; b) the existence of credit and financial institutions

    tomobilise savings and to divert them in desired channels; and c) to usethesesavings for investment in capital goods.

    3. Technological Progress

    The technological changes are most essential in the process of economic

    growth. Adam Smith, the father of political economy, pointed out the great

    importance of technological progress in economic development. Ricardo visualised

    the development of capitalist economies as a race between technological progress

    and growth of population. The great importance of technological progress incapitalist development was recognised by Karl Marxtoo.

    4. Human Resources

    A good quality of population is very important in determining the rate of

    economic progress. Instead of a large population a small but high quality of human

    race in a country is better for development. Thus, for economic growth,investment

    in human capital in the form of educational and medical and such other social

    schemes is very much desirable.

    5. Population Growth

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    Labour supply comes from population growth. But the population growth

    should be normal. A galloping rise in population retards economic progress.

    Population growth is desirable only in a under-populated country. It is,

    however,unwarranted in an overpopulated country like India. In fact, a high

    populationgrowth at the rate of 2.5 percent per annum is very much detrimental to

    the economic growth of our country.

    6. Social Overheads

    Another important determinant of economic growth is the provision of social

    overheads like schools, colleges, technical institutions, medical colleges,hospitals

    and public health facilities. Such facilities make the working populationhealthy,

    efficient and responsible. Such people can well take their country economically

    forward.

    7. Organisation

    In the process of growth, organisation is very important. It is organization

    that emphasises maximum use of the means of production in production.

    Orginisation is complementary to capital and labour and helps production to reach

    the maximum level. In the modern economic system, the entrepreneur performs the

    duty of an organiser and bears all risks and uncertainties. Hence,entrepreneurship

    is an indispensable part in the process of economic growth.For instance, the

    Industrial Revolution in England succeeded because of the entrepreneurship.

    B. Non-Economic Factors

    Both of the economic or noneconomic factors do play an important role in

    the process of economic growth. In this regard, socio-economic, cultural,

    psychological and political factors are also equally significant as are

    economicfactors in economic development of the LDCs Cairncross rightly

    observes :

    "Development is not just a matter of having plenty of money, nor is it purely

    an economic phenomenon. It embraces all aspects of social behaviour; the

    establishment of law and order; scrupulousness in business dealings,

    includingdealings with the revenue authorities; relationships between the family,

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    literacy,familiarity with mechanical gadgets and so on". We discuss here some of

    the essential noneconomic factors which determine the economic growth of an

    economy.

    1. Political Factors

    Political stability and strong administration are essential and helpful

    inmodern economic growth. It is because of political stability and

    strongadministration that the countries like the U.K. the U.S.A., Germany,

    Franceand Japan have reached the level of highest economic growth in the world.

    But in most of the poor countries there is political instability and weak

    administration which have largely influenced their economic development

    programmes. It is, therefore, essential for their faster economic development to

    have a strong, efficient and incorrupt administration. In conclusion, we cansay thata clean, just and strong administration can put an economy on the wayto rapid

    economic development. Lewis rightly comments that "no country hasmade

    progress without positive stimulus from intelligent governments".

    2. Social and Psychological Factors

    Modern economic growth process has been largely influenced by social and

    psychological factors. Social factors include social attitudes, social valuesand

    social institutions which change with the expansion of education and

    transformation of culture from one society to the other. The Industrial

    Revolutionof England and other Western European countries in the 18th century

    was largely influenced by the spirit of adventure and the expansion of education

    which led to new discoveries and inventions and consequently to the rise of thenew

    entrepreneurs. Social attitudes, values and institutions changed. Joint familysystem

    was replaced by the new single family system which further led to therapid

    economic development in these countries.

    3. Education

    It is now fairly recognised that education is the main vehicle of

    development. Greater progress has been achieved in those countries, where

    education is wide spread. J.K. Garlbraith in his book "Economic Development"has

    rightly stressed the role of education as an engine of economic growth.

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    4. Urbanisation

    Another noneconomic factor promoting development is the process

    ofurbanisation. In poor agrarian economies, the structural change must begin with

    the change in the size of population in rural and urban sectors.

    5. Religious Factors

    Religion plays a great role in economic growth. It may give rise to a peculiar

    sense of self-satisfaction. For example, the Hindu religion encouragesfaith in fate

    and prevents people from working hard. They are educated to remain satisfied with

    their lot and to hate risk and enterprise. Then our religiongives a higher place to

    spirit than matterObstacles to Economic Development

    Broadly speaking, the features of an under developed economy create

    obstacles in the way of economic development, and hamper economicprogress.These features emerge out of economic, social, political, religious and

    institutionalfactors. It would be wrong to conclude that only economic factors are

    responsiblefor poverty or economic backwardness of a country. Non-economic

    factors are equally responsible for the under development of an economy. The

    factorsdiscouraging economic development may be classified into economic and

    noneconomic factors which are as under.

    The important economic factors which obstacles to economic development

    are:

    Vicious Circles of Poverty

    Most important feature of underdeveloped countries is their dependence on

    vicious circles of poverty which may be considered as the highest bottleneckin the

    process of their economic development. Poverty is not only distressing but it is

    also demoralising. A poor man is one who is regarded as a disgrace tothe society

    and a cause of humiliation to himself, and who is unable to have proper food and a

    suitable house. Neither he helps himself, nor he is able to serve others. He is

    burden on society. A poor man always finds himself havingbeen caught in a

    vicious circle of poverty. Since he lacks the means to prosper,he remains

    poor.What is true to an individual, is also true to the country as a whole.Since an

    underdeveloped economy lacks the proper and modern means of economic

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    development, its economic development becomes an uphill task. Since its rate of

    investment and growth potential is so little, it has to remain poor.

    We find circular relationships, known as the "vicious circles of poverty

    which reveal the low level of economic development in Less Developed

    Countries (LDCs). Prof. Nurkse defines the concept of "Vicious Circles ofPoverty" in these words: "It implies a circular constellation of forces tending toact

    and react upon one another in such a way, as to keep a poor country in a state of

    poverty.... A country is poor because it is poor."

    The vicious circles operate in an underdeveloped economy on the supply as

    well as on the demand side. On the supply side deficiency of capital and

    lowvolume of savings, create vicious circles whereas low purchasing power

    createsvicious circle on the demand side

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    Difference between Economic Development and Economic Growth

    in India and China:-

    Introduction:-

    India and China are the most growing and developing nations of Asia. Thesetwo countries are the most powerful country in coming future. There growth and

    development are largely affected due to their highest number of population. But

    theses country were managing and increases their world trade with many different

    nations and emerging as a Most Developing Nations.

    Difference between Economic Growth in India and China:

    In the inevitable comparisons that economists and businesspeople make

    between Asia's two rising giants, China and India, China nearly always comes out

    on top.

    The Chinese economy historically outpaces India's by just about every

    measure. China's fast-acting government implements new policies with blinding

    speed, making India's fractured political system appear sluggish and chaotic.

    Beijing's shiny new airport and wide freeways are models of modern development,

    contrasting sharply with the sagging infrastructure of New Delhi and Mumbai. And

    as the global economy emerges from the Great Recession, India once again seemsto be playing second fiddle. Pundits around the world laud China's leadership for

    its well-devised economic policies during the crisis, which were so effective in

    restarting economic growth that they helped lift the entire Asian region out of the

    downturn.

    Now, however, India may finally have one up on its high-octane rival.

    Though India still can't compete on top-line economic growth the World Bank

    projects India's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 6.4% in 2009, far short

    of the 8.7% that China announced in mid-January India's economy looks to be

    rebounding from the downturn in better shape than China's. India doesn't appear to

    be facing the same degree of potential dangers and downside risks as China, which

    means policymakers in New Delhi might have a much easier task in maintaining

    the economy's momentum than their Chinese counterparts. "The way I see it is that

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    the growth in India is much more sustainable" than the growth in China, says Jim

    Walker, an economist at Hong Kongbased research firm Asianomics.

    Indias edge is due to the different stimulus programs adopted by the two

    countries to support growth during the downturn. China implemented what Walker

    calls the biggest stimulus program in global history. On top of governmentoutlays for new infrastructure and tax breaks, Beijing most significantly counted

    on massive credit growth to spur the economy. The amount of new loans made in

    2009 nearly doubled from the year before to $1.4 trillion representing almost

    30% of GDP. The stimulus plan worked wonders, holding up growth even as

    Chinas exports dropped 16% in 2009.

    But now China is facing the consequences of its largesse. Fears are rising

    that Beijings easy-money policies have fueled a potential property-price bubble.

    According to government data, average real estate prices in Chinese cities jumped

    7.8% in December from a year earlier the fastest increase in 18 months. The

    credit boom has also sparked worries about the nations banking system. Many

    economists expect the large surge in credit to lead to a growing number of

    nonperforming loans (NPLs). In a November report, UBS economist Wang Tao

    calculates that if 20% of all new lending in 2009 and 10% of the amount in 2010

    goes bad over the next three to five years, the total amount of NPLs from Chinas

    stimulus program would reach $400 billion, or roughly 8% of GDP. Though Wang

    notes that the total is small compared with the level of NPLs that Chinese banks

    carried in the past, she still calls the sum staggering. Policymakers in Beijing are

    clearly concerned. Since December, they have introduced a series of steps to cool

    down the housing market and restrict access to credit by, for example,

    reintroducing taxes on certain property transactions and raising the required level

    of cash that banks have to keep on hand in an effort to reduce new lending.

    India, meanwhile, isnt experiencing nearly the same degree of fallout from

    its recession-fighting methods. The government used the same tools as every otherto support growth when the financial crisis hit cutting interest rates, offering tax

    breaks and increasing fiscal spending but the scale was smaller than in China.

    Goldman Sachs estimates that Indias government stimulus will total $36 billion

    this fiscal year, or only 3% of GDP. By comparison, China s two-year, $585

    billion package is roughly twice as large, at about 6% of GDP per year. Most

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    important, India managed to achieve its substantial growth without putting its

    banking sector at risk. In fact, Indias banks have remained quite conservative

    through the downturn, especially compared with Chinese lenders. Growth of credit,

    for example, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008. As a result, economists see

    continued strength in Indias banks. A January report by economic-research outfit

    Centennial Asia Advisors noted that based on available data, there was no sign

    that domestic banks nonperforming assets were deteriorating materially. Nor do

    analysts harbor the same concerns that Indias monetary policies are sending prices

    of Indian real estate to bubble levels. Indias growth, though less stellar, does

    have the reassuring factor that the [risks of] asset price bubbles are less, says

    Rajat Nag, managing director general of the Asian Development Bank in Manila.

    India maintained robust growth without Beijings hefty stimulus in part

    because it is less exposed to the international economy. China s exportsrepresented 35% of GDP compared with only 24% for India in 2008. Thus India

    was afforded more protection from the worst effects of the financial crisis in the

    West, while Chinas government needed to be much more active to replace lost

    exports to the U.S. More significantly, though, Indias domestic economy provides

    greater cushion from external shocks than Chinas. Private domestic consumption

    accounts for 57% of GDP in India compared with only 35% in China. Indias

    confident consumer didnt let the economy down. Passenger car sales in India in

    December jumped 40% from a year earlier. What we see [in India] is a

    fundamental domestic demand story that doesnt stall in the time of a global

    downturn, says Asianomics Walker.

    The Indian economy is not immune to risks. The government has to contend

    with a yawning budget deficit, and last years weak monsoon rains will likely

    undercut agricultural production and soften rural consumer spending. But rapid

    growth is expected to continue. The World Bank forecasts Indias economy will

    surge 7.6% in 2010 and 8% in 2011, not far behind the 9% rate it predicts for

    China for each of those years. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, whenspeaking about his countrys more plodding pace of economic policymaking, has

    said that slow and steady will win the race. The Great Recession appears to have

    proved him right.

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    Difference between Economic Development of India and China:-

    On May 1, World Expo 2010 will open its doors in Shanghai, China. Thetheme of the exposition is "Better City - Better Life" and signifies Shanghai's newstatus in the 21st century as a major economic and cultural center. More than 190countries and more than 50 international organisations have registered toparticipate, and China expects to receive almost 100 foreign leaders and some 70million people - the largest number of visitors in the history of the world's fairs interms of gross numbers.

    What could be a more fitting venue for this World Expo than China - thecountry expected shortly to overtake Japan's prized position as the second largestmarket in the world described by economist Jeffrey Sachs as the most successfuldevelopment story in world history. The size of the economy has doubled everyeight years for three decades - the fastest rate for a major economy in recorded

    history. A recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts that China couldovertake the US economy as early as 2020.

    But China is not alone. India is also among the world's fastest growingeconomies and together with China, has contributed nearly 30% to globaleconomic growth as the balance of economic power continues to shift from Westto East. Contrary to popular belief, both China and India are not emergingeconomies, they are actually "re-emerging." China and India have particularstrengths and competitive advantages that have allowed each of them to weatherthe global financial crisis better than most countries and to gain ground in the

    "catching-up game" with the developed world.

    Beware the sleeping giant

    India, often referred to as the "sleeping giant", has emerged as the fourthlargest market in the world when its GDP is measured on the scale of purchasingpower parity. Both economies are increasing their share of world GDP, attractinghigh levels of foreign investment, and are recovering faster from the global crisisthan developed countries. Each country has achieved this with distinctly differentapproaches - India with a "grow first, build later" approach versus a "top-down,

    supply driven" strategy in China.

    Although China's income per head is still low at about $3,566, less than one-tenth of what Americans have, it is more than three times higher that of Indians(just over $1,000). China is currently the fifth fastest-growing consumer economyin the world, and is on course to become the third-largest by 2020, with India closebehind and expected to move into the fifth position by 2025. Chinese consumers

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    are indeed putting into practice Deng Xiaoping's famous quote, "It is glorious toget rich". The country recently surpassed the United States to become the world'slargest automobile market and has huge potential remains in terms of futurepurchasing power.

    China is also the first country in the world to have met the poverty reduction

    target set in the U.N. Millennium Development Goals, and enjoys the remarkablesuccess of having lifted more than 400 million people out of poverty. Thiscontrasts sharply with India, where 456 million people (42% of the population) stilllive below the poverty line, defined by the World Bank at $1.25 a day.

    Different means, same end

    The two countries' economic performance has been very differentlyorchestrated. China's growth has been mainly investment and export-driven,focusing on low-cost manufacturing, with domestic consumption as low as 36%

    percent of GDP. On the other hand, India's growth has mostly been derived from astrong services sector and buoyant domestic consumption. India is also much lessdependent on trade than China, relying on external trade for about 20% of its GDPversus 56% for China.

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    Conclusion

    Chinese economy has grown at much faster rate than Indian, but India seems to becatching up. The average estimated productivity growth rate of China (5.9%) ismore than double that of India (2.4%). The dierence between same-deator average growth rates of India and China reducessignicantly (by as much as 70%) for manufacturing sector. Both import and exportare signicantly correlated of with trends in growth rate of output-per-worker andproductivity for India and China pointing towards presence of conventional Trade-Growth link. While increased growth of spending are accompanied by increase thegrowth rate of productivity in China, in India the correlation is negative. For India,service sector growth trend is more strongly correlated with government spendingand infrastructure.