Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachia...Prepared on behalf of the Appalachian Regional Commission Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachia Technical Report Fritz Boettner,

Prepared on behalf of the Appalachian Regional Commission

Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachia

Technical Report

FritzBoettner,EvanFedorko,EvanHansenDownstreamStrategies911GreenbagRoadMorgantown,WV26508www.downstreamstrategies.com

StephanJ.Goetz,YicheolHanTheNortheastRegionalCenterforRuralDevelopmentThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity7ArmsbyBuildingUniversityPark,PA16802-5602

08Fall

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSReportAuthorsandContributors

WethankthefollowingAdvisoryTeammembersforparticipatingincallsandprovidingvaluablefeedback:

JimBaldwin,CumberlandPlateauPlanningDistrictCommissionShannonBlevins,UniversityofVirginia’sCollegeatWiseDeeDavis,CenterforRuralStrategiesEricDixon,AppalachianCitizenLawCenterPeterHille,MountainAssociationforCommunityEconomicDevelopmentDebraHorne,MayorofTownofDungannon,VALeashaJohnson,MingoCountyRedevelopmentAuthorityJustinMaxson,MaryReynoldsBabcockFoundationLeslieSchaller,AppalachianCenterforEconomicNetworksJenniferSimon,OhioUniversityBarbaraWycoff,OneFoundation

We thank the following Focus Group participants for theirvaluableinsight:

JimmieAdkins,LENOWISCOPDCPhilippaBelsches,JustTransitionFundShannonBlevins,UVa-WiseOfficeofEconomicDevelopmentDeeDavis,CenterforRuralStrategiesEricDixon,AppalachianCitizensLawCenterPeterHille,MACEDGinnyKidwell,TennesseeInstituteofPublicHealthJenniferSimon,OhioUniversityAdaSmith,AppalshopKentSpellman,RailstoTrailsConservancy

Wethankthefollowinginterviewees:

JonathanBelcher,VirginiaCoalfieldEconomicDevelopmentAuthorityDeeDavis,CenterforRuralStrategiesTaEnos,PennsylvaniaWildsCenterAnthonyFlaccavento,RuralScaleMichelleFoster,TheGreaterKanawhaValleyFoundationPeterHille,MountainAssociationforCommunityEconomicDevelopmentWilliamIsom,SustainableandEquitableAgriculturalDevelopmentTaskForceLeashaJohnson,MingoCountyRedevelopmentAuthorityJakeLynch,WestVirginiaCommunityDevelopmentHubDeborahMarkley,CenterforRuralEntrepreneurshipErikPages,EntreWorksConsultingLeslieSchaller,AppalachianCenterforEconomicNetworksAdaSmith,AppalshopKentSpellman,Rails-To-TrailsConservancyBonnieSwinford,TennesseeChapteroftheSierraClubTomTorres,AppalshopBoardExecutiveCommitteeStephanieTyree,W.VCommunityDevelopmentHubThomasWatson,RuralSupportPartnersBarbaraWycoff,OneFoundation

ChristineGyovaiEmilyCarlson,AlexandriaSentillesDialogue+DesignAssociates2573PeaRidgeRoadCharlottesville,VA22901www.dialogueanddesign.com

FritzBoettner,EvanFedorko,EvanHansenDownstreamStrategies911GreenbagRoadMorgantown,WV26508www.downstreamstrategies.comAlanCollins,BrianneZimmermanWestVirginiaUniversityDownstreamStrategiesconsultants

StephanJ.Goetz,YicheolHanTheNortheastRegionalCenterforRuralDevelopmentThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity7ArmsbyBuildingUniversityPark,PA16802-5602https://aese.psu.edu/nercrd

TABLEOFCONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.........................................................................................................................................I

LISTOFTABLES.....................................................................................................................................................II

LISTOFFIGURES...................................................................................................................................................II

ABBREVIATIONS..................................................................................................................................................III

EXECUTIVESUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................1

1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................5

2. THECOUNTY-LEVELDETERMINANTSOFECONOMICRESILIENCE..................................................................72.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................................72.2 PROCEDURES....................................................................................................................................................72.3 THEDETERMINANTSOFRESILIENCE:MODELSPECIFICATION.......................................................................................72.4 VARIABLES,DATA,ANDTHEIRSOURCES................................................................................................................11

2.4.1 Demographic/Mobilityvariables............................................................................................................112.4.2 Economic/Industryvariables..................................................................................................................122.4.3 Community/Healthvariables.................................................................................................................15

2.5 RESULTS........................................................................................................................................................152.5.1 Demographic/Mobilityvariables............................................................................................................152.5.2 Economic/Industryvariables..................................................................................................................152.5.3 Community/Healthvariables.................................................................................................................162.5.4 Theentiremodel....................................................................................................................................16

2.6 SENSITIVITYANALYSES......................................................................................................................................182.7 ANALYSISOFRESIDUALS....................................................................................................................................19

3. THECOUNTY-LEVELSPILLOVEREFFECTSOFECONOMICRESILIENCE...........................................................223.1 SPATIALECONOMETRICANALYSIS:PREDICTINGTHESPILLOVEREFFECTS......................................................................223.2 SPATIALMODELRESULTS...................................................................................................................................233.3 RESULTS:IMPORTANTINDIRECTEFFECTSANDTOTALEFFECTSESTIMATES....................................................................25

3.3.1 Demographic/Mobilityvariables............................................................................................................253.3.2 Economic/Industryvariables..................................................................................................................273.3.3 Community/Healthvariables.................................................................................................................28

3.4 COUNTYRELATIONSHIPSANDPOLICYSTRATEGIES...................................................................................................293.4.1 Localorstrictlycounty-levelimpacts.....................................................................................................293.4.2 Cooperativeregionalpolicystrategies...................................................................................................293.4.3 Competitiveregionalpolicystrategies...................................................................................................30

3.5 IDENTIFICATIONOFHIGHLYRESILIENTCOUNTIES....................................................................................................30

4. QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFRESILIENCE......................................................................................................32

5. CASESTUDYSELECTION..............................................................................................................................35

6. CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................................43

REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................................................44

APPENDIXA:FOCUSGROUPMATERIALS............................................................................................................48

APPENDIXB:INTERVIEWSUMMARY..................................................................................................................66

APPENDIXC:ADVISORYTEAMCALLSUMMARIES...............................................................................................89

APPENDIXD:PRACTITIONERSURVEY.................................................................................................................98

APPENDIXE:REGRESSIONRESULTSWITHQUADRATICTERMS.........................................................................132

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APPENDIXF:REGRESSIONRESULTSWITHINTERACTIONTERMS.......................................................................133

APPENDIXG:EMPLOYMENTFORCOUNTIESWITHHIGHRESIDUALSINTHEOLSMODEL..................................136

APPENDIXH:EMPLOYMENTFORTOPCOUNTIESBASEDONRESILIENCEINTHEOLSMODEL............................139

APPENDIXI:TOPCOUNTIESBASEDONRESIDUALSINTHEOLSMODELTHATARESELF-EMPLOYMENTDOMINANT 142

LISTOFTABLESTable1:Demographic/mobilityvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics..........................13Table2:Economic/industryvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics................................13Table3:Community/healthvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics................................14Table4:Regressionresultsforthethreesubcategoriesofvariables................................................................17Table5:Top24countiesrankedbasedonregressionresiduals.......................................................................21Table6:ComparisonofdirecteffectsandOLSresultswithbetaestimates.....................................................24Table7:Spatialeconometricregressionestimateresultsforeconomicresilience...........................................26Table8:RankedorderofpositiveandnegativeimpactsofstatisticallysignificantSDMbetacoefficients......27Table9:Policiescategorizedbyimpactandimplicationsforsurroundingcounties.........................................30Table10:Top15highlyresilientcountiesbasedonresidualvalues.................................................................31Table11:Most-resilientcountiesintheAppalachianRegion............................................................................31Table12:Top24countiesbasedonresilienceintheOLSmodel......................................................................37Table13:Potentialcasestudyareasidentifiedinthequalitativeresearch......................................................38Table14:Thetencasestudycounties...............................................................................................................42Table15:Regressionresultswithquadraticterms,Models1through6........................................................132Table16:Regressionresultswithinteractionterms,Models1through4......................................................133Table17:Regressionresultswithinteractionterms,Models5through10....................................................134Table18:Regressionresultswithinteractionterms,Models11through14..................................................135Table19:Topcountiesbasedonresidualsandself-employmentdominant..................................................142

LISTOFFIGURESFigure1:CoalproductioninAppalachiaandCentralAppalachia........................................................................5Figure2:Regionaleconomicchangefromamajorshockandconceptsofdropandrebound...........................8Figure3:ResiliencevaluesforcountiesacrosstheUnitedStates.......................................................................9Figure4:ResiliencevaluesforcountiesintheAppalachianRegion..................................................................10Figure5:Summaryofqualitativeresearchactivities.........................................................................................34Figure6:The112candidatecasestudycounties..............................................................................................36Figure7:Thetencasestudyareas.....................................................................................................................41

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ABBREVIATIONSARC AppalachianRegionalCommissionCH community/healthDM demographic/mobilityEI economic/industryOLS ordinaryleastsquaresPOWER PartnershipsforOpportunityandWorkforceandEconomicRevitalizationSDM SpatialDurbinModelUSCB UnitedStatesCensusBureauUSDA UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureUSDC UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerceUSDL UnitedStatesDepartmentofLabor

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EXECUTIVESUMMARYTheeconomiesofmanycountiesandsubregions intheAppalachianRegionhavehistoricallydependedonafew dominant industries, such asmining ormanufacturing. In recent years, Appalachian coal production—particularly production in the Central Appalachian coal basin—has plummeted. Coal companies have gonebankruptandjobshavebeenlost,withdevastatingimpactsonfamilies,communities,counties,andstates.

TheStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesproject,sponsoredbytheAppalachianRegionalCommission,wasconductedbyDownstreamStrategies,PennState,Dialogue+DesignAssociates,andotherpartners.Thepurposeofthisprojectwastoquantifyeconomicresilienceandunderstandtheunderlyingfactorsthatexplainhowcommunitiescanbuffereconomicshocks.Usingthesefactors,ourteamexploredanddocumentedthestrategiesandpolicieslocalleaderscanusetoenhancethefutureeconomicprospectsofcoal-impactedcommunitiesthroughouttheAppalachianRegion.Thefourkeycomponentstothisresearchprojectwereto:1)developacomprehensive,quantitativeframeworktoexploreeconomicresilience;2)identifyaseriesofbest-practicestrategiesforstrengtheninglocaleconomicresilience;3)conduct10in-depthcasestudies;and4)produceaconciseguidebookthatinterpretsandintegratesfindingsoftheresearch,writtenspecificallyforlocaleconomicdevelopmentpractitioners.Ourmultidisciplinaryresearchteamperformedseverallinkedanalyses.

Theseanalysesexploreeconomicresilience:alocalcommunity’scapacitytoabsorb,resist,andrecoverfromaneconomicshock,suchasaneconomy-widerecessionorindustryrestructuring.Weperformedtwostatisticalanalysesthatillustratetheindependenteffectsofalternativedeterminantsofresilience.

Thefirst,aconventionalordinaryleastsquaresanalysis,assesseseachcountyacrosstheUnitedStatesinisolation.Atotalof35variablesareincludedinthisanalysis,whicharedividedintodemographic/mobility,economic/industry,andcommunity/healthvariables.Severalstatisticallysignificantvariablesprovideinsightsintothetypesofpoliciesandpracticesthatcanbeimplementedinlocalcommunitiestopromoteeconomicresilience.

Forthedemographic/mobilityvariables,greaterresilienceisfoundincountieswithalargerproportionofyoungadults,wheremorepeoplemigrateinandfewerpeoplemigrateoutofthecounty,wheremorepeoplecommuteoutofthecounty,wherethecountyhasahigherpopulation,andwhereagreaterportionofthecounty’sresidentshaveearnedcollegedegrees.

Fortheeconomic/industryvariables,severalvariablesarefoundtobepositivelyassociatedwitheconomicresilience,includinglaborforceparticipation,innovationpotential,andindustrydiversity.Othervariablesarefoundtobenegativelyassociated.Theseincludebusinessdensity;poverty;knowledgediversity;andfarming,coal,andmanufacturingemployment.

Finally,manycommunity/healthvariablesarefoundtobepositivelyassociatedwitheconomicresilience,includingavailabilityofeducationalfacilities,broadband,andrecreationalopportunities(employmentinarts,entertainment,andrecreation),aswellasagritourismanddirectfarmsales.Incontrast,socialcapitalunexpectedlyhasastrongandsignificantnegativeeffect.

Thesecondstatisticalanalysis,aspatialeconometricmodel,extendsthefirstmodelbyallowingforspilloversofeconomicprocessesacrosscountylines.Thisrepresentsasensitivityanalysisthatallowsformorenuancedrelationships.Thesamesetof35variablesareinvestigated.Again,severalstatisticallysignificantvariablesprovideinsightsintothetypesofpoliciesandpracticesthatcanbeimplementedinlocalcommunitiestopromoteeconomicresilience.

Whenmakingpolicyrecommendationsbasedontheobservedvariables,onemustconsiderthatapolicyimplementedinagivencountymayimpactsurroundingcounties.Whilecertainpoliciesarebestdealtwithas

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single-countyissues,othersmaybemoreefficientlyimplementedasajointeffortwithsurroundingcounties(orevenatthestatelevel).Thevariablesimpactingresiliencemayalsopointtodifferentstrategiesneededtoaddressapolicyissue.Basedontheresultsofthespilloveranalysis,policiesmaybecomplementary(cooperative)orcompetitiveacrosscountylines.Cooperativestrategiesstrengthentheresilienceofsurroundingcounties,whilecompetitivestrategiesweakentheirresilience.Thisanalysisalsoallowspoliciesthatsupportstatisticallysignificantvariablestobecategorizedasstrictlycounty-level,cooperative,altruistic-cooperative,competitive,andultra-competitive.

Forexample,asillustratedinTableES-1,policiesthatincreasethediversityofindustriesandinnovationpotential,andpoliciesthatincreaseparticipationoftheworkforce,werefoundtohavestrictlycounty-levelimpacts.Theseapproachesneitherhelpnorhurtresilienceofneighboringcounties.

Cooperativeandaltruistic-cooperativepolicies,suchasthosethatincreasecountypopulationsizeorprotectorenhancenaturalamenities,wouldhelpneighboringcounties—notjustthecountyimplementingthepolicy.

Ontheotherhand,competitiveandultra-competitivepoliciesinacountytendtoreducetheresilienceofsurroundingcountiesandthetotalregion.Examplesofsuchpoliciesincludethosethatattractcollege-educatedpeopleandthosethatincreasetheportionofthepopulationaged65andover.

TableES-1:Policiescategorizedbyimpactandimplicationsforsurroundingcounties

Strictlycounty-level Regional-levelimpactsimpacts Cooperative Altruistic-cooperative Competitive Ultra-competitive

PoliciesthatincreasethediversityofindustriesandinnovationpotentialPoliciesthatincreaseparticipationoftheworkforce

PoliciesthatincreasecountypopulationsizePoliciesthatdecreasethepovertyratePoliciesthatreducetheout-migrationofcounty-levelpopulation

PoliciesthatprotectorenhancenaturalamenitiesPoliciesthatincreasethenumberofbusinessespercapitawithinacountyPoliciesthatincreasefarmemployment

Policiesthatattractcollege-educatedpeoplePoliciesthatattractyoungerworkers(25to44)

Policiesthatincreasetheportionofthepopulationage65+PoliciesthatencouragedirectfarmsalesPoliciesthatincreasetheemploymentinthearts,entertainment,andrecreationPoliciesthatincreasecommunitycollegeemploymentPoliciesthatincreasemanufacturingemployment

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Wealsoperformedaqualitativeanalysisbyconductinginterviews,afocusgroup,andasurveytogatherfeedbackfromeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,electedofficials,andothersonbestpracticesandstrategiesforgrowingeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion.WealsosolicitedfeedbackfromanAdvisoryTeam.Resultsweresynthesizedintoeightbestpractices,withassociatedstrategies:

1. Investineducation,technology,infrastructure,andbroadband.2. Engagethecommunityoverthelongterm.3. Createcommunitieswherepeoplewanttolive.4. Growyouthengagementandnext-generationleadership.5. Identifyandgrowtheassetsinthecommunityandregion.6. Buildnetworksandfostercollaboration.7. Movemultiplesectorsforwardforeconomicdevelopmentandgrowvaluechains.8. Cultivateentrepreneursanddevelopresourcesforbusinessstart-ups.

Tencasestudyareas—seveninsidetheAppalachianRegionandthreeinotherpartsofthecountry—wereselectedtoprovidefurtherinsightintohowcommunitiesareevolvingtheirapproachtoeconomicdevelopment(SeeFigureES-1).Thesecasestudies,alongwithmoredetailsonthebestpracticesandstrategies,areprovidedinanaccompanyingpractitionerguidebook,whichisdesignedforusebyeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,localgovernmentofficials,nonprofitorganizations,andothersworkingintheAppalachianRegion.

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FigureES-1:Thetencasestudyareas

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1. INTRODUCTIONTheeconomiesofmanycountiesandsubregionsintheAppalachianRegionhavehistoricallydependedonafewdominantindustries,suchasminingormanufacturing.Inrecentyears,Appalachiancoalproduction—particularlyproductionintheCentralAppalachiancoalbasin—hasplummeted(seeFigure1).Coalcompanieshavegonebankruptandjobshavebeenlost,withdevastatingimpactsonfamilies,communities,counties,andstates(See,forexample,Hodge,2016;Hansenetal.,2016;MaherandFrosch,2015;Farrell,2016;OfficeoftheGovernor,2015;HalsandRucinski,2016).

Figure1:CoalproductioninAppalachiaandCentralAppalachia

Source: United States Energy Information Administration (2017). Note: Appalachian coal production includes Central Appalachian coal production.

Recognizingtherecentdeclineinthecoalminingindustryandbroaderenergytransitions,theUnitedStatesEconomicDevelopmentAdministrationandtheAppalachianRegionalCommission(ARC)arecollaboratingtoassistcoal-impactedcommunitiesinAppalachiathroughthefederalPartnershipsforOpportunityandWorkforceandEconomicRevitalization(POWER)Initiative.Grantssupporteffortstoincreaseeconomicdiversity,enhancejobtraining,createnewjobs,andattractnewsourcesofinvestment(ARC,2017).

OnecriticalaspectofthePOWERInitiativeisunderstandinghowcoal-impactedcommunitiescantransformanddiversifytheireconomiesandbuildresilienceagainstfutureeconomicshocks.Economicresilienceisdefinedasalocalcommunity’scapacitytoabsorb,resist,andrecoverfromaneconomicshock,suchasaneconomy-widerecessionorindustryrestructuring.Inthisresearch,weexaminecounty-leveldatatoassesslocalcommunityresilience.Thisprojectinvestigatesbestpractices,strategies,andpoliciesthatlocalleaderscanusetoenhancethefutureeconomicprospectsofcoal-impactedcommunitiesthroughouttheAppalachianRegion.

Ourmultidisciplinaryresearchteam—whichincludesexpertsfromDownstreamStrategies,Dialogue+DesignAssociates,theNortheastRegionalCenterforRuralDevelopmentatthePennsylvaniaStateUniversity,andWestVirginiaUniversity—performedseverallinkedanalyses.Weconductedtwostatisticalanalysesthat

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illustratetheindependenteffectsofalternativedeterminantsofresilience.Thefirst,aconventionalordinaryleastsquares(OLS)analysis,assesseseachcountyinisolation(seeChapter2).Thesecond,aspatialeconometricmodel,extendstheOLSmodelbyallowingforspilloversofeconomicprocessesacrosscountylines.Thisrepresentsasensitivityanalysisthatallowsformorenuancedrelationships(seeChapter3).

Wealsoperformedaqualitativeanalysisbyconductinginterviews,afocusgroup,andasurveytogatherfeedbackfromeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,electedofficials,andothersonbestpracticesandstrategiesforfosteringeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion.WealsosolicitedfeedbackfromanAdvisoryTeam,consistingoflocaldevelopmentpractitionersandrepresentativesfromcommunitygroups,philanthropicorganizations,anduniversities.Chapter4documentstheseeffortsandidentifieseightbestpracticesforincreasingeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion.

Inaddition,weusedtheresultsfromouranalyses,alongwithfeedbackfromARC,toselect10casestudyareas(seeChapter4).ThesecasestudiesprovidefurtherinsightintohowcommunitiesareevolvingtheirapproachtoeconomicdevelopmentbothinsideandoutsidetheAppalachianRegion.

Thistechnicalreport,oneoftworeportsforthisproject,focusesontheprocessusedbytheresearchteamtoconductthequalitativeandquantitativeanalyses.Thesecondreport,aguidebook,providesbestpractices,strategies,andcasestudiesforusebyeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,localgovernmentofficials,nonprofitorganizations,andothersworkingintheAppalachianRegion.

SeveralrecentARCreportssetthestageforthisanalysisofeconomicresilience.Hodge(2016)providesanoverviewofthecoalindustryecosystem,includingproduction,powergeneration,andsupplychainlinkages,andpresentsthemostcurrentdataandtrendsoncoal-relatedindustries.ApreviousanalysisofeconomicdiversityintheAppalachianRegioncalculatedeconomicdiversitytrendsinAppalachiancountiesandsub-regionsusingfourdiversityindices:industrial,functional,occupational,andknowledge.Tencasestudieswerepresentedthatidentifiedsuccessfuldiversificationapproaches(UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign’sRegionalEconomicsApplicationsLaboratoryandtheCenterforRegionalEconomicCompetitiveness,2014).A2012analysisof10distressedandformerlydistressedAppalachiancountiespresentedstrategiesforeconomicimprovement,basedonbothqualitativeandquantitativeresearch(Ezzelletal.,2012).

OtherrecentARCreportsinvestigatedtrendsintheRegionsince1965(CenterforRegionalEconomicCompetitivenessandWestVirginiaUniversity,2015),householdwealthandfinancialsecurity(Jacobsenetal.,2013),accesstocapitalandcredit(Silveretal.,2013),andentrepreneurialopportunities(RuralSupportPartners,2013).Whiletheseareallimportantvariablesrelatedtodifferentaspectsofeconomicresilience,ourstudyfocusesspecificallyonresiliencerelatedtototalnumberofjobs.Wesuggestthat,althoughitisnotwithoutlimitations,employmentisabettermeasurethanunemployment,whichinadynamiceconomyismoresensitivetoworkersenteringanddroppingoutoftheworkforcethanunemployment.Inarecentstudy,BrownandGreenbaum(2017)usedunemploymentratestabilitytoreflectresilience.

Ourstudyintroducesanovelsetofpotentialexplanatoryvariablesintotheregressionanalysisandusesstate-of-the-artspatialeconometricstocapturelocalspillovereffects.Wefocusonthemeasurementandexplanationoffactorsimpactingeconomicresilienceatthecountylevel.Ourmeasurementofeconomicresilienceincludesthreefactors:(1)timeofimpactorbeginningofrecessionandhowitwasspreadandexperienced,(2)theresponseofaffectedcounties,and(3)therelationshipbetweenrecessionandrecovery.Toexplaineconomicresilience,threesetsofexplanatoryvariableswereutilized:demographic/mobility,economic/industry,andcommunity/health.Thesevariablesprovidealternative,potentiallycompetingpredictorsofresilienceinacommunity,identifiedbothfromtheliteratureandinformedbyourinterviewswithkeyknowledgeablecommunity-basedstakeholders.Byexplainingeconomicresiliencewiththesevariables,wecanassesstheimpactsofpotentialpoliciesonlocalaswellasregionalresilience.

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2. THECOUNTY-LEVELDETERMINANTSOFECONOMICRESILIENCE

2.1 Introduction

Thissectionofthereportdescribesthestatisticalanalysisshowingtheindependenteffectsofalternativedeterminantsofresilience.Here,weexaminetherelationshipbetweendifferentvariablesthatarehypothesizedtobeassociatedwiththeabilityofcountiesnotonlytoresistbutalsotoreboundfromshocks.Byusingstatisticalmethods,weisolatetheeffectsofindividualvariableswhileholdingothersconstant,andthereforeplacecountiesonthe“sameplayingfield.”Forexample,wecanstudytheeffectofeducationonresilience,whileholdingconstantthecounty’sindustrialstructure.

Inthischapter,webeginwithaconventionalordinaryleastsquares(OLS)analysis,wherebyindividualcountiesareviewedinisolation.Thefollowingchapterpresentsaspatialeconometricmodel,whichextendstheOLSmodelbyallowingforspilloversofeconomicprocessesacrosscountyandstatelines.Thisrepresentsasensitivityanalysisthatallowsformorenuancedrelationshipsamongtheexplanatoryanddependent(resilience)variables.

2.2 Procedures

Weproceedasfollowswiththeanalysis.First,wespecifyandthenestimatearegressionmodelwitheconomicresilienceasthedependentvariable.Thisrevealsthegeneral,averagedeterminantsofresilienceacrosstheUnitedStatesinresponsetothe2008GreatRecession,1whichinturnprovidesinsightsintostrategiesthatlocalcommunitiesmaybeabletofollowtoincreasetheireconomicresilience.Wechosetheregressorsfromexistingliteratureandbyapplyingwhatwehavelearnedfromtheinterviewsandsurveysofknowledgeablecommunityleaders(seeAppendicesA-D).Thisservesbothto“groundtruth”ourmodelandtoverifywhetherthefactorsmentionedbypractitionersinthefieldhaveindependentmeasurableeffectsinthestatisticalmodel.Second,followingthisanalysis,theresultsofwhichwealsoreviewwithcommunityleaderssurveyed,weuseresidualsfromtheregressionequationtoidentifythoseAppalachiancountiesthatareperformingbetterintermsofresiliencethantheyshouldbe,basedontheirlocalconditions.

Inadditiontocomparingourlistoftopresidualcountieswiththelistemergingfromtheinterviews,weexaminethetop24suchcountiesingreaterdetailtodevelopanarrowerlistofcandidatecasestudycounties.Someofthesewereeliminatedimmediatelyfromfurtherconsiderationiftheirhigher-than-expectedresilienceisduetosomeuniquecircumstance.Forexample,countiesthatarehometoastate’sland-grantuniversityorthatbenefitedfromtherecentshalegasdevelopmentboomarenotofinterest,becausetheseconditionsarenotlikelytobeeasilyreplicatedelsewhere.

2.3 Thedeterminantsofresilience:Modelspecification

Aliteraturereviewfindsveryfewstudiesthathaveattemptedtomodelresilienceusinganeconometricmodel(Sherriebetal.,2010;Hilletal.,2012;Augustineetal.,2013;Tsaietal.,2015).Inpart,thismaybeduetothefactthatasystematicmeasureofresilience,definedastheemploymentreboundinresponsetoashock,hasbeendevelopedonlyrelativelyrecently(HanandGoetz,2015).EventherecentstudybyBrownandGreenbaum(2017),publishedafterthisprojectwasinitiated,usesthenotionofunemploymentstabilityratherthantheideaofarecoveryfollowingashock.HanandGoetz(2015)calculatedresilienceastheamountofdeclinerelativetotheexpectedemployment,andtheamountofrecoveryrelativetothelowestpost-shockemployment(seeFigure2).OneearlierstudyofpotentialrelevancewaspreparedbyExperianfortheUnitedKingdom;itidentifiedasetoffourfactorshypothesizedtounderlieresilience.Alsopotentially

1 The Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017).

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relevanttothisworkarePender’sstudies(Penderetal.,2014)onruralwealthandarecentARCreport(Feseretal.,2014)ondiversity.

Figure2:Regionaleconomicchangefromamajorshockandconceptsofdropandrebound

Source: Han and Goetz (2015).

Forourdependentvariable,weusetheresiliencemeasurethatwasdevelopedbyHanandGoetz(2015),withtheslightmodificationthatwealsoconsidertherateofgrowthintheperiodleadinguptothepeakandsubsequentdecline.Inaddition,weupdatethismeasurewithdatathroughMarch2016.Asintheoriginalwork,weapplyaseasonaladjustmentfiltertothemonthlydatatosmoothentheseries.Figure3illustratestheseresiliencevaluesforcountiesacrosstheUnitedStates,andFigure4focusesonthecountiesintheAppalachianRegion.

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Figure3:ResiliencevaluesforcountiesacrosstheUnitedStates

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Figure4:ResiliencevaluesforcountiesintheAppalachianRegion

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Inthisreport,wedevelopthreesetsofvariablesthatpotentiallyaffecttheresilienceofacommunity:demographic/mobility(DM),economic/industry(EI),andcommunity/health(CH).Thesearealternative,potentiallycompetingpredictorsofresilienceinacommunity,identifiedbothfromtheliteratureandinformedbyourinterviewsandsurveysofknowledgeablecommunity-basedstakeholders.Becausetheindividualvariablesinthethreesetstendtobehighlycorrelated,weenterthemseparatelyaswellasjointly(X=DM,EI,CH)intoaregressionequation.Thisprovides:

Equation1

𝑦! = 𝑋!𝛽 + 𝜀! = 𝐷𝑀!𝛽! + 𝐸𝐼!𝛽! + 𝐶𝐻!𝛽! + 𝜀!

where,inadditiontothevariablesdefinedearlier,ymeasuresresilience,βisavectorofparameters,εisanerrortermthatisassumedtobenormallydistributed,andiindexesoneoftheover3,000U.S.counties.Wealsoincludestatefixedeffectsinthemodel.

2.4 Variables,data,andtheirsources

Whereverpossiblewemeasuretheseindependentvariablesbefore2008,toreflecttheconditionsinthecountiesintheperiodleadinguptotheGreatRecession.Thespecificvariablesincludedineachofthesub-vectorsaredescribedbelow.Summarystatistics,variabledefinitions,anddatasourcesareshowninTable1.

AllvariablesarestandardizedintheOLSandspatialmodels.Withdatastandardization,thecoefficientestimatesareimputedasz-scorevaluessuchthateconometricestimationprovidesstandardizedcoefficients.Standardizationallowsfordirectcomparisonsofthemagnitudeofcoefficientsbetweenvariables.2

2.4.1 Demographic/Mobilityvariables

Amongthedemographic/mobilityvariables,weincludetheagedistributionofthecounty’spopulation,itsethnicdiversity,mobilityasreflectedinmigrationandcommuting,shareofpopulationborninstateofresidence(thisisavailableonlyatthestatelevel,notthecountylevel),populationsizeandlandarea,aswellascollegegraduationrates.Wehypothesizethatcountieswithalargershareofyoungerworkers(age25-44)wouldbemoreresilientbecausethiscohortismoreflexibleintermsofemploymentorcareershiftsduringeconomicdownturns.Greaterethnicdiversity,asmeasuredbyAlesinaandFerrara(2005),hasbeenshownelsewheretoleadtogreaterresilienceaswellasfastereconomicgrowth(MontalvoandReynal-Querol,2005;Rupasinghaetal.,2000;RupasinghaandGoetz,2007).

Forpopulationmobility,ourliteraturereviewsuggeststhatgreaterreturnmigrationofformerresidentsisassociatedwithgreaterresilience(Adgeretal.,2002).Whileweareunabletomeasurewhetheramigrantformerlylivedinthecounty,wedocontrolforpopulationshareborninthestateofresidence,whichisalsoexpectedtohaveapositiveeffectbothbecausesuchresidentsknowtheircommunitybetterandbecausetheymayhaveagreaterattachmenttotheplace.Justasin-migrationisassociatedwithgreaterresilience—asin-migrantsbringwiththemresources,knowledge,andinsightsfromelsewhere—theoppositeisexpectedforout-migration.Migrationismeasuredfrom1995-2000,intheperiodbeforetheGreatRecession.Thus,itreflectslonger-standingpatterns,includingabeliefamongout-migrantsthattheyarebetteroffelsewhere(weareunabletoseparateoutretireeswhoaremovingawayforpurposesotherthanemployment,butthisgroupisunlikelytoaffecttheresultsinamajorway).

2 Standardized coefficients are further explained here: http://www.bwgriffin.com/gsu/courses/edur8132/notes/Notes8h_RegressionStandardizedCoefficients.pdf. As an example, the coefficient for the “Age 25 to 44” variable in Table 4 is 0.194. An increase in the percentage of the population between the ages of 25 to 44 by one standard deviation (a statistical measure of variation in the variable) impacts economic resilience by increasing it by 0.194 of a standard deviation.

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Communitiesthatattractmorein-commutersareexpectedtobemoreresilient,andthesameisexpectedofcommunitieswithmoreout-commuters(Goetzetal.,2010;GoetzandHan,2015).Thehypothesizedreasonisthatcommutersareattractedtoplacesthatoffergreaterandmorerobustemploymentopportunities.Bythesametoken,thein-flowofearningsbycommutersfromotherplacesalsohasastabilizingportfolio-typeeffect.Commutingalsofacilitatesinformationflowsintoandoutofcounties,withpotentialideasforsolvinglocalproblemsthathavepublicgoodcharacteristics.Commutingcanalsofacilitatestartingnewbusinesses.

Holdinglandareaconstant,weexpectcommunitieswithgreaterresidentpopulationstobemoreresilientbecauseofgreateragglomerationbenefits,aswellasmoreopportunitiestogeneratenewideas.Forthesamereason,weexpectcollegegraduateratestoexertthesamepositiveinfluenceonresiliencelevelsinacommunity.

2.4.2 Economic/Industryvariables

AmongthesetofEconomic/Industryvariables,weincludedistancefrommajorpopulationcentersofatleast250,000persons.Totheextentthatthehousing-relatedrecessionof2008waslargelyanurbanphenomenon(Chernicketal.,2011),greaterdistanceisexpectedtohaveinsulatedmoreruralcommunitiesfromtheshock.Thedensityofbusinessesperworkingagepopulationaswellasself-employmentratesarebothexpectedtobeassociatedwithgreaterresilience,becauseofagreatercapacitytocopewithandadapttoaneconomicshock(StephensandPartridge,2011).Communitieswithlowerpovertyrates,thosewithhigherlaborforceparticipationrates,aswellasinnovationpotential(GoetzandHan,2017)andindustrydiversity(Feseretal.,2014),areeachexpectedtoexhibitgreaterlevelsofresilienceinresponsetoashock.Theinnovationpotentialmeasureusestheinput-outputtableandspatiallocationsoffirmsindifferentindustriestomeasureopportunitiesbothforprocess(supplier-based)andproduct(buyer-based)innovation;weexpectthistohaveapositiveeffect.Inthecaseofindustrydiversity,weexpectastabilizingportfolio-typeeffect.

Lessobviousistheexpectedeffectofgreaterknowledgediversity(holdingcollegegraduatesharesconstant).Suchcommunitiesmaybebetterabletoaddressthefalloutfromarecession,ontheonehand,buttheymayalsobemorevulnerabletoashockthataffectstheextremesoftheknowledgedistribution,ontheother,allelseequal.3

Wealsoincludeinthissub-vectortheemploymentsharesinkeyblue-collartypeindustries,rangingfromfarming,oilandgas,coalmining,andmanufacturing.TheseareimportantindustrieswithintheAppalachianRegionandtheyhavebeenprofoundlyaffectedbothby(environmental)policyandbyglobalizationaswellaslaborsavingtechnologicalchange(Partridge,Stephens,andGoetz,2017).Wemeasurethesevariablesin2005,whichwouldnotyetreflectthecurrentshalegasboom.

3 In our analysis, we also consider two other diversity measures: functional and occupational diversity (Feser et al., 2014). Because they are highly correlated with the industry and skills diversity measures, we cannot use them in the model.

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Table1:Demographic/mobilityvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics

Variable Definition Source Mean Std.Dev. Min MaxAge25to44 %ofpopulation25-44yearsinage20+population,2005 USCB,2005b 34.45 4.99 17.6 54.5Age65andup %ofpopulation65yearsormoreinage20+population,2005 USCB,2005b 20.57 5.04 3.9 42.9EthnicDiversity Ethnicdiversityofminorities(exceptwhite),2000 USCB,2000a 0.04 0.1 0 0.83MobilityIn-Migration %ofin-migration(#in-migrants/#population),2000 USCB,2000a 18.54 6.57 0 65.12MobilityOut-Migration %ofout-migration(#out-migrants/#population),2000 USCB,2000a 18.05 6.21 0 100

MobilityIn-Commuting %ofin-commuting(#in-commuting/#employment),2000 USCB,2000aUSCB,2005a 31.21 16.58 2.02 100

MobilityOut-Commuting %ofout-commuting(#out-commuting/#employment),2000 USCB,2000aUSCB,2005a 50.12 32.14 1.47 100

ResidenceBorn %ofpopulationwhoborninstateofresidence,2000 USCB,2000a 69.66 14.79 14.32 96.51Population Population,2005,log USCB,2005b 4.45 0.62 1.85 6.99LandArea Landareainsquaremiles,2000 USCB,2000b 953.7 1,309.41 1.99 20,052.5College %ofpopulationage25+withbachelordegreeorhigher,2000 USCB,2000a 16.54 7.84 4.9 63.7

Table2:Economic/industryvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics

Variable Definition Source Mean Std.Dev. Min MaxDistancetoCity Distance(miles)toacountywithmorethan250,000population,2005 Author 83.46 76.35 0 565.86BusinessDensity #establishmentsper1,000age20-64population,2005 USCB,2005a 42.09 16.06 0 181.05Self-Employment %Nonfarmproprietorsemployment,2005 USDC,2005 21.48 7.75 3 61.8Poverty %ofpovertyallages,2005 USCB,2005c 15.33 6.52 2.5 51Participation %ofparticipation,2000 USCB,2000a 60.59 7.04 22.6 86.1InnovationPotential Potentialforeconomicinnovation,2005 Author 0.32 0.1 0.01 0.77

IndustryDiversity Industry-basedeconomicdiversity Feseretal.,2014 4.53 0.53 0.91 5.60

KnowledgeDiversity Knowledge-basedeconomicdiversity Feseretal.,2014 2.44 0.007 1.88 2.69

Farming %ofemploymentinFarming,2005 USDC,2005 7.92 7.92 0 57.67Oil&Gas %ofemploymentinOilandGasextraction,2005 USCB,2005a 0.26 1.89 0 69.87Coal %ofemploymentinCoalmining,2005 USCB,2005a 0.33 2.4 0 49.65Manufacturing %ofemploymentinManufacturing,2005 USCB,2005a 16.53 12.59 0 69.33

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Table3:Community/healthvariables,definitions,datasources,andsummarystatistics

Variable Definition Source Mean Std.Dev. Min Max

PrimaryandSecondary EmploymentinElementaryandSecondarySchools(NAICS6111)per1,000age5-19population,2005,log

USCB,2005aUSCB,2005b 0.64 0.56 0 2.78

CommunityCollege EmploymentinCommunitycollege(NAICS611210)per1,000age20-64population,2005,log

USCB,2005aUSCB,2005b 0.13 0.42 0 3.34

Broadband %ofpopulationwholivewithinoneormorebroadbandserviceareas,2010 USDC,2007 76.94 19.04 0 100

Child/ElderCareEmploymentinchilddaycareservices(NAICS62441)per1,000age5-populationortheelderlyandpersonswithdisabilities(NAICS61412)per1,000age65+population,2005,log

USCB,2005aUSCB,2005b 1.66 0.5 0 3.22

HealthPractitioner Employmentinofficesofphysicians,dentists,andotherhealthpractitioners(NAICS6211-3)per1,000population,2005

USCB,2005aUSCB,2005b 8.31 6.55 0 99.02

RecreationalOpportunity Employmentinarts,entertainment,andrecreation(NAICS71)per100Kpopulation,2005,log

USCB,2005aUSCB,2005b 0.61 0.36 0 2.76

NaturalAmenity Naturalamenity USDA,2005 0.07 2.29 -6.4 11.17SocialCapital Socialcapitalindex,2005 NERCRD 0 1.39 -3.9 14.38FederalFunds TotalamountofFederalfundspercapita,2005,log USDA,2005 3.39 0.39 2.24 5.21VotingCompetitiveness %ofmargininU.S.Presidentialelectionsvoting,2008 Leip,2008 25.82 18.07 0.01 87.73Agritourism Agritourismreceipts($)perAgritourismoperations USDA,2007 7,095.9 21,088 0 428,000DirectFarmSales Directfarmsales($)/Farmswithdirectsales,2007 USDA,2007 5,903 8,244 0 130,688

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2.4.3 Community/Healthvariables

Forthefinalgroupofvariables,weincludeamongtheCommunity/Healthvariablesemploymentinprimaryandsecondaryeducationalinstitutions,aswellasemploymentincommunitycollegesandbroadbandaccess.Eachoftheseisexpectedtobeassociatedwithgreaterresilience.Wealsoincludeavailabilityofbothelderandchildcarefacilities;healthcarepractitioners;andemploymentshareinarts,entertainment,andrecreation,alongwiththeU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture/EconomicResearchServicenaturalamenitiesindex.Recentlytherehasbeenconsiderableexcitementabouttheeffectofsuchcreative/recreationactivities,andthesewerealsoidentifiedintheinterviewsofkeycommunityleadersandstakeholders.

Wealsoincludesocialcapitalstocks,whichhavebeenshowntobeimportanttoeconomicsuccess(Rupasinghaetal.,2000),federalfundingpercapita,andvotingcompetitiveness.ThelattermeasurestheabsolutevalueofthedifferenceinthepercentofthepopulationvotingRepublicanorDemocraticinthe2008federalelection.Thehypothesishereisthatthegreaterthisnumber,thelessthedegreeofpoliticalcompetitioninthecounty,andthelesslikelyitisthatincumbentsseekingreelectionwillworkhardfortheirconstituents.Finally,tomeasurecommunitycohesionasrelatedtolocalagriculturalactivities,weincludeagritourismanddirectfarmsalesactivities.Whileevidenceonthenetbenefitoftheseintheliteratureismixed(Brownetal.,2014),theyalsohavebeenmentionedinexpertinterviewsasleadingtogreaterresilience.

2.5 Results

Wefirstdiscussregressionresultsforthethreeindividualsub-categoriesofvariables;inallcasesweincludestatefixedeffects(seeTable4).


Amongthedemographicandmobilitymeasures,theyoungeragecohort,aswellasbothin-andout-migrationmeasures,havetheexpectedsignsandarestatisticallysignificantatthe1percentlevel.Out-commuting,ortheabilitytorelyonothernearbycommunitiesforemployment,likewisehasapositiveeffect.Placeswithlargerpopulationsandgreatersharesofcollegegraduatesalsoaremoreresilient,asexpected.Remarkably,ethnicdiversityhasnostatisticallysignificantassociationwithresilience,whenweconsideronlythesedemographicandmobilityvariables,whichiscountertoexpectationsandotherfindingsintheliterature.


Turningnexttotheeconomicandindustryvariables,distancefromlargerpopulationcentershasnoeffect,whilegreaterbusinessdensityhasanunexpectednegativeeffectintheseinitialsub-regressions.Forpovertyandlaborforceparticipation,thedirectionofeffectsisasexpected,andstatisticallydifferentfromzeroatthe1percentlevel.Greaterinnovationpotentialandindustrydiversityareassociatedwithgreaterresilience,whilegreaterdiversityofknowledgehasanegativeassociation,forreasonsworthyoffurtherexploration.Inparticular,thefindingthatplaceswithagreaterdiversityofskillssetsarelessresilientisunexpected.Thissuggeststhatcountieswithmorelow-andhigh-skilledworkersaremorevulnerabletoshocksorhavemoredifficultyreboundingintermsofemployment.ThismayberelatedtolayoffsofscientistsandotherPh.D.degreeholdersinresearchanddevelopmentdepartmentsduringdownturns,withspilloverstolower-skilledworkerssuchasjanitorsandentry-levelclerks.Communitiesthatrelyrelativelymoreonfarming,coal,andmanufacturingemploymentarelessresilient,asexpected,whilenostatisticaleffectisdetectedforoilandgasemploymentwhich,again,ismeasuredintheperiodbeforetheshalegasboomand,assuch,doesnotmeasureactualparticipationin,andbenefitsfrom,theboom.

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Inthethirdblockofvariables,availabilityofeducationalfacilities,broadband,recreationalopportunities(employmentinarts,entertainmentandrecreation),aswellasagritourismanddirectfarmsales,areallassociatedpositivelywithresilience,andinastatisticallysignificantmanner.Incontrast,socialcapitalunexpectedlyhasastrongandsignificantnegativeeffect,whilechild/eldercare,healthcarepractitioners,naturalamenities,federalfunding,andpoliticalcompetitivenesshavenoeffect.

2.5.4 Theentiremodel

Turningtothelastcolumnofresults,whichincludesallregressorsatthesametime,weseethatthecommunity/healthvariablesareimpactedtothegreatestdegreebyincludingtheotherregressors.Thereisinsufficientindependentvariationinanumberofthesevariables,onceweincludethedemographicandeconomicfactors,toallowthemtoexhibitstatisticallysignificanteffectsonresilience.Beyondthat,thefollowingvariablesremainstatisticallysignificantintheoverallmodelandallowustomakeinitialpolicyrecommendationsaboutfactorsunderlyingeconomicresilienceincommunities.

Havingaproportionatelyyounger(age25-44)workforce,moreethnicdiversity,morein-andlessout-migrationaswellasmorein-commuting,andalargerpopulationwithgreatersharesofcollegegraduatesareallimportantfactorsassociatedwithgreaterresilience.Ethnicdiversityaswellasin-commutingsharesbecomestatisticallysignificantwhenweaddtheeconomic/industryandcommunity/healthvariables(whileout-commutingsharesarenolongersignificant).Someofthesestatisticallysignificantfactorsmaymorereadilybeinfluencedbyeconomicdevelopmentstrategiesthanothers.Forexample,whiletheavailabilityofchildandeldercareisnotstatisticallyafactor,communitiescouldseektodevelopconditionsthatsupportyoungercareercouples(thoseage25-44,whoaremorelikelytoberaisingsmallchildren)byprovidingmoreofthekindsofresourcesthatwouldappealtothem(e.g.,excellentschools)aswellastheirchildren(e.g.,opportunitiesforrecreationandsports).

Beingwelcomingofdifferentethnicities,includingindividualsfromothercountries,ishelpful,asistryingtorecruitformerresidentswhomovedaway.Thismayincludethosewhomaynowseektoretire(althoughthepopulationshareof65yearsplusisnotsignificant),aswellasyoungerworkerswhomayhavepickedupimportantbusinessskillselsewhereandcouldperhapsmovebacktostarttheirownbusinesses.Likewise,eitherattractingcollegegraduatesorencouraginglocalresidentstopursuecollegetrainingandremaininthecounty,totheextentthatisfeasible,wouldbeanimportantstrategy.

Inthefullmodel,distancefrommajormetropolitanareasisassociatedwithgreatereconomicresilience,whereasneitherself-employmentsharesnorbusinessdensitymatterinthisspecification.Beforedismissingtheselattertwofactorsascentralstrategiesforachievingresilience,however,itisimportanttotestfornon-linearitiesaswellaspotentialinteractions.Wedothisinasensitivityanalysis,withresultsreportedbelow.Whileloweringpovertyratestoachievegreaterresilienceisimportantbutnoteasilyaccomplished,recognizingtheimportanceoflaborforceparticipationandinnovationpotentialinthecommunityaswellasseekinggreaterdiversificationoftheindustrialbasewouldbeimportantstrategies.Infact,manyleadersintheAppalachianRegionarestartingtorecognizetheadvantagesofadiversifiedeconomicportfoliooverrelianceonasingleindustrysuchascoalmining(e.g.,Gunn,2017).Suchstrategiescouldincludemorelocaltourism-typeactivities,forexample.Somewhatsurprisingly,greaterdiversityoftypesandlevelsofknowledgeisassociatedwithlowerresilience.4Thisshouldbeexploredingreaterdetailinfutureresearch.Ourregressionanalysisalsoconfirmsthatcoalcounties(asmeasuredbyahighshareofemploymentinthecoalindustry)werelessresilientintherecentdownturn.Theeffectsoffarmingandoilandgasarepositive,

4 The ARC report defines this as (Feser et al., 2014, p. 8) “…employment in twelve broad groups of occupations, with the groups reflecting the different types and levels of knowledge required for success in various professions. This produces a measure of knowledge-based economic diversity (or knowledge diversity).”

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whilemanufacturingdominancehadnegativeeffectsonresilience;however,thesevariablesarenotstatisticallysignificantinourmodel.

Table4:Regressionresultsforthethreesubcategoriesofvariables

Demographic/

mobility Economic/

industry Community/

health

EntiremodelVariable beta t beta t beta t beta tDemographic/mobility Age25to44 0.194*** 5.12 0.099** 2.43Age65andup 0.055 1.39 -0.033 -0.69EthnicDiversity 0.006 0.27 0.086*** 3.13MobilityIn-Migration 0.107*** 3.75 0.119*** 4.02MobilityOut-Migration -0.073*** -2.94 -0.089*** -3.7MobilityIn-Commuting 0.013 0.51 0.058** 2.04MobilityOut-Commuting 0.097*** 4.07 0.014 0.43ResidenceBorn -0.002 -0.09 0.004 0.15Population 0.213*** 6.38 0.279*** 4.58LandArea -0.002 -0.1 -0.032 -1.5College 0.207*** 7.04 0.107*** 2.85 Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.037 0.87 0.147*** 3.22BusinessDensity -0.169*** -7.19 0.036 1.02Self-Employment -0.004 -0.22 0.007 0.27Poverty -0.103*** -3.48 -0.111*** -3.03Participation 0.188*** 6.27 0.085** 2.1InnovationPotential 0.149*** 6.27 0.06** 2.2IndustryDiversity 0.153*** 4.94 0.092* 1.93KnowledgeDiversity -0.092*** -4.4 -0.051** -2.38Farming -0.066** -2.01 0.059 1.44Oil&Gas 0.022 0.66 0.044 1.29Coal -0.069*** -4.21 -0.063*** -3.82Manufacturing -0.113*** -6.08 -0.03 -1.36 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary 0.068*** 3.28 -0.007 -0.34CommunityCollege 0.033** 2.02 -0.026* -1.76Broadband 0.134*** 5.49 -0.035 -1.35Child/ElderCare 0.018 0.87 0.004 0.17HealthPractitioner -0.039 -1.60 -0.095*** -4.51RecreationalOpportunity 0.109*** 4.62 -0.022 -0.9NaturalAmenity 0.003 0.09 0.006 0.17SocialCapital -0.102*** -4.07 0.004 0.1FederalFunds -0.033 -1.46 -0.008 -0.3VotingCompetitiveness 0.028 1.17 -0.007 -0.29Agritourism 0.056*** 3.48 0.016 1.13DirectFarmSales 0.076*** 4.00 0.027* 1.7 Constant *** 2.81 *** 11.28 *** 19.66 *** 2.71N 3,054 3,053 3,050 3,049 AdjustedR2 0.2250 0.2112 0.1173 0.2577 Note: Table shows robust standardized coefficients with state fixed effect. Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower.

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Amongthecommunityandhealthfactors,onlytheexpansionofdirectfarmsalesremainsasonepotentiallocalstrategyforenhancingresilience.However,beyondmakingfarmersandconsumersawareofthispossibilitythrougheducationandmarketingoradvertising,itisnotobvioushowtodothis.Instead,thisvariablelikelyispickingupsomekindofcommunitycohesioneffectthatisuniquetotheindividualslivingthereandcouldbedifficulttoreplicateorexpandthroughpolicy.Evenso,itisworthhighlightingthesekindsofsuccessfulcommunitiesifonlytoshowotherswhatispossiblethrougheffectiveleadership.Itisalsonoteworthyfromourlastequationthattheeffectofcommunitycolleges(stillpositiveinthestandaloneregressionforcommunity/healthfactors)turnsnegativeoncewecontrolfortheotherinterveningfactors.Thiswouldsuggestthatpromotingthenumberofcommunitycollegesisnotnecessarilyaworkablestrategyforincreasingresilience.

Likewise,whileregionalmedicalhubscanbeimportantdrivers–especiallyinremotecommunities,asourexpertpanelalsohassuggested–ourmodelsuggeststhatgreateremploymentofhealthcarepractitionersisdetrimentaltoresilience.Beforedismissingthedevelopmentofhealthcarehubsasapotentialstrategy,thiswouldwarrantfurtherinvestigation.Itisalsopossiblethatwearepickingupareversecausationinthatalesshealthypopulationorworkforce,whichrequiresmoremedicalcare,isinherentlylesslikelytobeabletosupportarobustandresilienteconomy.Wealsonotethatemploymentintheprimary/secondaryeducationsector,broadbandavailability,child/eldercareavailability,recreationalopportunities,naturalamenities,socialcapital,federalfundssecured,votingcompetitiveness,andagri-tourismhavenoeffectonresilienceinthismodel.5Weexaminesomeofthesevariablesingreaterdetailinsubsequentsensitivitytestsdiscussedbelow.

2.6 SensitivityanalysesBeforedismissingaltogethersomeofthekeyvariablesthatwerehypothesizedtobesignificantbutturnedoutnottobe,orhadunexpectedsigns,weconductaseriesofsensitivitytestsinvolvingnon-lineareffects(quadraticterms)aswellasinteractionsbetweenselectedvariables(seeAppendixEandFfordetailedresults).

Whenweincludeaquadratictermforself-employment,thelineartermispositive(0.158)whilethequadratictermisnegative(−0.145),withbothbeingstatisticallysignificant.Thisindicatesthattheeffectofself-employment(ourproxyforentrepreneurship)ispositiveatlowerlevelsofself-employment,increasesuptoamaximumself-employmentrateof54.5percent,andthenbecomesnegativeatevenhigherlevelsofself-employment(indicatingtoomuchofa“goodthing”).Onlyninecountiesoutoftheover3,000currentlyhaveself-employmentsharesabovethismaximum(>54.5percent).Thus,astrategyofpromotingself-employmenttoenhanceeconomicresiliencewouldbemosteffectiveincommunitiesstartingoutwithlowerlevelsofself-employment.Thisemphasisonhomegrownentrepreneurshipisimportant,becauseitwasstressedrepeatedlybythepanelofexperts.

Wealsoexploreinteractionsamongkeyvariables.Forexample,apositiveeffectofsocialcapitaloncounty-levelresilienceoccurswithsmallersharesof25-44-year-olds;withsmallersharesofin-commuters;withsmallertotalpopulations;andwithgreaterdistancefromlargepopulationcenters.Eachoftheseresultsisplausibleandcanbeexplainedasfollows.Individualsinthe25-44-year-oldcategoryaremorelikelytobelaunchingcareersandraisingyoungfamilies.Thus,theeffectsofanysocialcapitalinthecommunityarelesslikelytobeamplifiedorleveraged(comparedtocommunitieswithproportionatelylargersharesofolderworkers,whomayhavemorefreetime)intermsofenhancingresilience.Whilecommuting(andmigration)canentailbenefitsintermsofgreaterinformationflows(GoetzandHan,2015),commutersalsohavelessatstakeintermsofthegeneralsocialwellbeingofthecommunitiestowhichtheycommute;theyaremorelikelytoexpendtheirsocialcapitalinthecommunitieswheretheylive.Asaresult,theweakenedeffectof 5 Digression on model results for ARC region only: when we estimate the regression equations for only the 412 counties of the ARC region, only in-migration rates, distance from major metros, and voting competiveness show up as statistically significant, with the latter carrying an unexpected positive sign.

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socialcapitalincommunitieswithlargein-commutersharesisnotsurprising.Incommunitieswithsmallertotalpopulations,andthataremoredistantandisolatedfromlargercities,thefeelingofcohesionandself-reliance(“wehavetosolveourproblemsonourownandcannotrelyonhelpfromelsewhere”)maybegreater,andthusexistingsocialcapitalcanbeleveragedtogreatereffect.Thegeneralconclusionfromthissupplementalanalysisisthatsocialcapitaldoesmatterforresilience,butonlyundertherightconditions.Thisfindingisimportantbecauseanumberoftheexpertsinterviewedforthisprojectindicatedthatsocialcapitalwaskeytoeconomicresilienceinacommunity.

Similarly,wefindstatisticallysignificantinteractionsbetweenself-employmentratesandanumberofvariables.Notableamongtheseisthatself-employmentbecomesmoreeffectiveasaresilience-enhancingstrategyincountieswithlargerpopulations(perhapsbecausethesebusinessescanfindmorecustomers).Conversely,itbecomeslesssuccessfulasdistancetomajormetropolitanareasdeclines,perhapsbecausetheyhavefeweropportunitiestosellgoodsandservicesintocities.Also,itislesssuccessfulasthelaborforceparticipationrateandemploymentinfarmingeachincrease.Thereasonsforthislatterfindingcouldbeexploredfurther.Again,ratherthandismissingthepromotionoflocalentrepreneurship,anotherkeyfactoridentifiedbytheexperts,policymakersandplannersneedtoprobemoredeeplytoassesswhethertherightconditionsexistlocally.

Federalfundingismoreeffectiveinfurtheringresilienceincommunitiesthathavesmallersharesofin-commuters,perhapsbecausethebenefitsofsuchfundingdonotremaininthecommunityifmoreworkersleaveattheendofeveryday.Havingmorechild/eldercarefacilitiesimprovesprospectsforresilienceincommunitieswithlowerlevelsofindustrydiversity.Votingcompetitivenessmattersmoreforresilienceastherateofin-migrationdeclines.Thiscouldreflectthefactthatitismoredifficultforin-migrantswhoarenewtoanareatoconnectwithelectedleaders(andthoseseekingoffice)toexpresstheirpreferences.Recreationalopportunitiesandbusinessdensityalsointeractnegatively,indicatingthathavingagreaterbusinessdensitytogetherwithgreaterrecreationalopportunitiesisdetrimentaltoeconomicresilience;aplausibleexplanationisthatthebusinesseshavetoomanydistractions,orthatiftherearefewerbusinesses,therecreationalopportunitiesgetusedmore,therebycontributingtogreaterresilience.6

Thisdiscussionhasraisedmorequestionsforfurtherresearchanddoesnotprovidedefinitiveanswers.Ourmainpurposeforincludingtheseresultsofthesensitivityanalyseshereistocautionagainstdismissinganyoneofthestrategiesidentifiedsimplybecausethevariablewasnotstatisticallysignificantintheregressionmodel.Instead,amorenuancedandsubtleanalysisisneededtounderstandthefullrangeofeffectsandconditionsunderwhichtheyworkbest.

AnadditionalformofsensitivityanalysisisincludedinChapter3,whichpresentsaspatialeconometricanalysisofeconomicresiliencevariablesandtheirspilloverinfluencesbeyondcountyboundaries.

2.7 Analysisofresiduals

Theresultsoftheregressionanalysisreportedabovearevaluableforunderstandingtheindependenteffectsofvariousfactorshypothesizedtoenhanceeconomicresilience.However,theregressionisalsovaluableinthatithighlightsthosecountiesthatperformmuchbetter(orworse)intermsofresiliencethantheyareexpectedto,controllingforthelistofexplanatoryfactors.Thesecountiesliefarabove(orbelow)theregressionlinewhenthepredictedvalueofthedependentvariableisplottedagainsttheactualvalue(resilience);thesecountieshaveverylargepositive(ornegative)residuals.

Residualsareusefulinidentifyingcountiesforfurtherstudy,becausethosewiththehighestresidualsmayholdlessonsinstrengtheningeconomicresilienceforcountiesacrosstheAppalachianRegion.Whenwe

6 Fan et al. (2016) find that human capital and natural amenities individually and jointly increase wage growth, but in our study, such an effect is not observed for resilience.

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selectthesecountiesforfurtherstudy,wewanttoruleoutthosethathaveauniqueconditionthatcannotbeeasilyreplicatedelsewhere.Forexample,acountymayhaveexperiencedatemporaryconstructionboomduetoaninfusionofoutsidemoney.Aftertheboomisover,employmentreturnstothepreviouslevel,andthiscountyisnotonasustainablegrowthpath.Oracountymaybehometothestate’sland-grantuniversity,whichisnoteasilyreplicatedelsewhereinthestate.

Thelistoftop-rankedresidualsgeneratedbytheregressionmodelidentifiesthosecountiesthatperformedbetterthanexpectedaftertheGreatRecession,consideringthelistofvariablesincludedasexplanatoryfactors(seeTable5andAppendixG).Forexample,whereonewouldexpectcountieswithgreatersharesofcollegegraduatestobemoreresilientthanthosewithsmallershares,somecountiesmaybeevenmoreresilientthantheyshouldbegiventheirshareofcollegegraduates.Inthisexample,somethingishappeninginthesecommunitiesthatmakesthemmoreresilientthanexpected.Whateverthatfactoris,itisnotcapturedintheregressionmodel,andbyidentifyingit(orthem)wemaygainadditionalinsightsintothedeterminantsofresilience.Forexample,somecommunitiesmayhaveevenstrongercivicleadershipcapacitythanisreflectedinoursocialcapitalmeasure,andothercommunitiesmayhavemorefarmersmarkets.

Table5showsthetop-rankedcountiesintermsoftheresilienceresidual,calculatedfromtheregressionequation.Kemper,MShasthehighestresidual.Furtherinvestigationshowsthatthiscountybenefitedfromconstructionofalignitepowerplantaround2008-10,andthehighresidualreflectsthetemporaryboomintheconstructionsector,asemploymentsubsequentlyfellbacktotheearlierperiod.Employmentgrowthinconstructionaccountedforthree-quartersofthepost–GreatRecessionjobboostinthiscounty.Thus,weexcludethiscountyfromfurtherconsideration.

Usingasimilarargument,weexcludeDoddridge,WV,whichbenefitedfromtheshalegasboom,andweexcludeMonongalia,WV,whichishometoWestVirginiaUniversityandhasenjoyedsteadygrowththankstothatinstitution.Ontheotherhand,Taylor,WV,whichbordersMonongalia,WV,hasexperiencedaninterestingreboundnotjustassociatedwithspilloverhousingdevelopment.Therefore,understandingwhathashappenedherethroughcommunityleadershipmayprovefruitfulinthatitcanbereplicatedelsewhere.

Foreachoftheothercounties,welistthesectorthatcontributedthemosttothehigher-than-expectedresilienceinthatcounty,aswellasthepercentoftheoverallcountyjobgrowththatisaccountedforbyexpansioninthissector(s).Inthreecases(Taylor,WV;Morgan,TN;andBledsoe,TN),multiplesectorsplayedimportantroles.Weinvestigatethisfurtherwiththegoalofidentifyingapossiblestrategythatbuildsondiversification.Itisalsonoteworthythatfourcountiessawincreasesinmanufacturingasthesourceoftheirhigher-than-expectedresiliencelevels.

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Table5:Top24countiesrankedbasedonregressionresiduals

Rank CountyPopulation(2015) Resilience Residuals Dominantsectorinrecovery

Percentofjobgrowth

accountedforbythissector

1 Kemper,MS 10,551 1.081 0.490 Construction 75.4%2 Swain,NC 13,463 0.908 0.379 Localgovernment 88.3%3 Doddridge,WV 7,808 0.901 0.323 Naturalresources&mining 45.5%4 Taylor,WV 16,318 0.828 0.254 N/A N/A5 Monongalia,WV 88,424 0.844 0.253 Education&healthservices 25.7%6 Jackson,GA 50,607 0.895 0.227 Trade,transportation,&utilities 44.2%7 Harrison,WV 67,989 0.794 0.221 Education&healthservices 45.9%8 Union,MS 26,569 0.807 0.204 Manufacturing 62.0%9 Chenango,NY 51,154 0.75 0.204 Manufacturing 59.4%10 Choctaw,MS 9,026 0.708 0.198 Localgovernment 62.8%11 Morgan,TN 20,959 0.784 0.195 N/A N/A12 Holmes,OH 41,630 0.812 0.181 Manufacturing 51.3%13 Bledsoe,TN 12,685 0.852 0.176 N/A N/A14 Washington,PA 205,359 0.762 0.165 Professional&businessservices 38.4%15 Harrison,OH 15,907 0.652 0.154 Trade,transportation,&utilities 50.5%16 Pickett,TN 4,997 0.737 0.153 Trade,transportation,&utilities 58.1%17 Cortland,NY 49,330 0.678 0.145 Leisure&hospitality 51.6%18 Bradley,TN 93,024 0.806 0.130 Professional&businessservices 22.8%19 Madison,KY 78,732 0.762 0.123 Manufacturing 32.7%20 Itawamba,MS 23,254 0.71 0.122 Manufacturing 93.1%21 Buncombe,NC 221,642 0.745 0.118 Education&healthservices 26.9%22 Grayson,VA 16,153 0.694 0.116 Stategovernment 81.2%23 Oktibbeha,MS 43,985 0.746 0.110 Leisure&hospitality 40.5%24 Butler,PA 179,522 0.756 0.109 Professional&businessservices 30.5%

Source: USDL (2015). Note: The data is not seasonally adjusted.

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3. THECOUNTY-LEVELSPILLOVEREFFECTSOFECONOMICRESILIENCE

3.1 Spatialeconometricanalysis:Predictingthespillovereffects

Thischapterexpandsupontheregressionanalysisthroughapplicationofspatialeconometrictechniquestoidentifyanypossiblespillovereffectsoccurringbetweencountiesinregardstofactorsinfluencingeconomicresilience.Spillovereffectsexistwheneconomicactivitiesorpoliciespursuedinonecountyinfluencetheemploymentlevelsinsurroundingcounties.Previousliteraturehasexaminedchangesinlocalinfrastructureandfacilitieslikeroads(Pfaffetal.,2007)oruniversities(Anselinetal.,2000)andtheirspillovereffects.Thisliteraturealsoexaminedspilloversinitiatedwithchangesindevelopmentsuchastheruralimpactsofurbansprawl(ThomasandHowell,2003;HeimlichandAnderson,2001;CarruthersandVias,2005;andByunetal.,2005).Spilloverscanhaveeitherpositiveornegativeimpactsonsurroundingcommunities.Byimplementingregionalapproachestoaddressdevelopmentstrategies,publicpoliciescanminimizenegativespillovereffectsand/ormaximizepositivespillovereffects(PenderandReeder,2011).

Inthisanalysis,weutilizeaSpatialDurbinModel(SDM)tomeasurespillovereffectswhilepredictingcounty-leveleconomicresiliencetothe2007-2009GreatRecession.TheSDMisageneralformformeasuringglobalspillovereffects(LeSage,2014).TherearethreemajoradvantagestousingtheSDM.First,itproducesglobalspillovereffects,whichmaybepreferredwithanationalmodel.Thismodelutilizesanassumptionthattheexplanatoryvariableeffects,onaverage,aresimilarthroughouttheentireobservedregion(thecontinental48U.S.states).Theestimatedspillovereffectsconsidertheeffectsonthecountiespasttheidentifiedweightmatrix,somewhatlikearippleeffect.Conversely,modelswithlocalspillovereffectsonly(suchasaspatiallagmodel)considertheeffectswithinthesurroundingcountiesidentifiedwithintheweightmatrix.ThesecondmajoradvantageisthattheSDMcontrolsforomittedvariablebiaswhenomittedvariablesarecorrelatedwiththedependentvariable(LeSageandPace,2009).Becauseasolidtheoreticalfoundationhasnotbeenestablishedforexplainingcounty-leveleconomicresilience,omittedvariablesarelikelytooccurwithinourestimation.Thefinaladvantageisthatitcontrolsforomittedspatially-correlatedvariablesthatarecorrelatedwiththeexplanatory/predictorvariable.

ThestructureoftheSDMisasfollows:

Equation2

𝑌 = 𝜌𝑊𝑌 + 𝑋𝛽 +𝑊𝑋𝜃 + 𝜀

whereY(Nx1)isourcounty-levelresiliencemeasureandX(NXK)isamatrixofstandardizedexplanatoryvariables(LeSage,2014).Nrepresentsthenumberofcounty-levelobservations,andKrepresentsthenumberofexplanatoryvariablesincludedwithinthemodel.Xiscomposedofthesamethreecategoriesofvariablesdescribedinthepreviouschapter:demographic/mobility,economic/industry,andcommunity/health.Weobservethejointeffortsofthesevariablesonpredictingresilience,whilecontrollingforthespatialdependenceintheexplanatoryvariables.

Equation3

𝑋 = [𝐷𝑀,𝐸𝐼,𝐶𝐻]

Thescalarρisthemeasureofspatialdependencebetweencounties,andW(NxN)isthespatialweightmatrix.Bothβandθareparametervectors(Kx1).Theresidualerrortermisrepresentedbyε(Nx1).WYmeasures

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thespatiallaginthedependentvariable,andρWYrepresentsthespatialautoregressiveterm.WXmeasuresthespatiallagintheexplanatoryvariables.Thespatialweightmatrix,W,isdefinedbyjnearestneighbors.

OurSDMproducescoefficientestimatesatthreelevels:direct,indirect,andtotaleffects.Theseestimatesprovideanaverageeffectfortheentirestudyregion.Thedirecteffectmeasures,onaverage,howachangeinanexplanatoryvariableincountyiaffectsresilienceincountyi.TheinterpretationofthedirecteffectfollowsstandardOLScoefficientinterpretation.Theindirecteffectisthedifferencebetweenthetotaleffectandthedirecteffect.Itmeasurestheaverageimpactfromanexplanatoryvariableincountyionresilienceinjcountiessurroundingcountyi,alsoknownasthespillovereffect.Thetotaleffectisthesumofthedirectandindirecteffects.Thetotaleffectcanbeinterpretedastheaveragetotalimpactonresilienceineverycountyresultingfromachangeinanexplanatoryvariablewithinanindividualcountyi.Thescalarρestimatesthelevelofspatialdependenceinthesedata.Interpretationoftheindirectandtotaleffectsisprovidedforthestatisticallysignificantvariablesbelow.

3.2 Spatialmodelresults

Initially,wecomparethedirecteffectcoefficientestimatesfromtheSDMwiththecoefficientsfromtheentiremodeloftheOLSregression.TheOLScoefficientsareshowninTable4,andtheyarecomparedwiththedirecteffectcoefficientsinTable6.Statefixedeffects(coefficientsnotshown)androbuststandarderrorestimatesareincludedaspartoftheOLSregression.BothmodelshaveasimilarlevelofexplanatorypowerwithadjustedR2valuesofapproximately0.25,explainingone-quarterofthevariationinthedependentvariable.TheOLSmodeldoeshaveaslightlyhigheradjustedR2value.

Formostexplanatoryvariables,theβcoefficientestimatesaresimilarbetweentheOLSmodelandthedirecteffectsoftheSDM.Basedoncoefficientestimatesfromeithermodel,thelargestpositiveinfluencesonresiliencecomefrompopulationsize,distancetocities,mobilityin-migration,andpercentageofthepopulationaboveage25withacollegedegree.Percentageofpopulationinpovertyhasthestrongestnegativeinfluenceonresilienceinbothmodels.

Afewvariables,however,havedifferentsignsbetweentheOLSregressionandSDMdirecteffects:childandeldercare,socialcapital,andvotingcompetitiveness.Noneofthesevariableshavecoefficientestimatesthatarestatisticallydifferentfromzeroineithermodel.Theethnicdiversity,diverseknowledge,communitycollege,anddirectfarmsalevariableshavestatisticallysignificantcoefficientsinOLSmodel,buttheircoefficientsarenotstatisticallysignificantintheSDM.However,thecommunitycollegeanddirectfarmsalevariablesareonlystatisticallysignificantatthe10percentlevelintheOLSmodel.Conversely,thefarmingandbroadbandvariableshavestatisticallysignificantdirecteffectsintheSDMregression,butarenotstatisticallysignificantintheOLSmodel.TheSDMcontrolsforspatialdependence(bias)intheexplanatoryvariables,buttheOLSmodelcannot.

ThedirecteffectcoefficientsinTable6suggestseveralconclusions,including,forexample:

• Thedistancetoacityofmorethan250,000hasapositivedirecteffectonresilience,significantatthe99percentlevel.Asthisdistanceincreasesbyonestandarddeviation,economicresiliencewithinthecountywillalsoincreaseby0.146standarddeviationsfromthemean.

• Povertyhasanegativedirectinfluenceonresilience,atthe99percentlevel.Asthepercentageofthepopulationwholiveinpovertyincreasesbyonestandarddeviation,theeconomicresilienceofthecountywilldecreaseby-0.086standarddeviationsfromthemean.

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Table6:ComparisonofdirecteffectsandOLSresultswithbetaestimates

Variables OLSresults DirecteffectDemographic/mobility Age25to44 0.099** 0.098**Age65andup -0.033 -0.013EthnicDiversity 0.086*** 0.070MobilityIn-Migration 0.119*** 0.124***MobilityOut-Migration -0.089*** -0.082***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.058** 0.061***MobilityOut-Commuting 0.014 0.017ResidenceBorn 0.004 0.021Population 0.279*** 0.291***LandArea -0.032 -0.037College 0.107** 0.127*** Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.147*** 0.146***BusinessDensity 0.036 0.032Self-Employment 0.007 0.014Poverty -0.111*** -0.086***Participation 0.085** 0.077**InnovationPotential 0.060** 0.068**IndustryDiversity 0.092* 0.081***KnowledgeDiversity -0.051** -0.045Farming 0.059 0.061***Oil&Gas 0.044 0.048Coal -0.063*** -0.051***Manufacturing -0.030 -0.010 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.007 -0.011CommunityCollege -0.026* -0.020Broadband -0.035 -0.031*Child/ElderCare 0.004 -0.017HealthPractitioner -0.095*** -0.083***RecreationalOpportunity -0.022 -0.013NaturalAmenity 0.006 0.010SocialCapital 0.004 -0.012FederalFunds -0.008 -0.002VotingCompetitiveness -0.007 0.014Agritourism 0.016 0.012DirectFarmSales 0.027* 0.009 Constant *** -AdjustedR2 0.2577 0.2410Note: Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower.

TheρvaluefortheSDM,whichidentifiesspatialdependencewithinthesecounty-leveldata,isstatisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel(seeTable7).Thissuggeststhatestimationwiththespatialeconometricmodelisappropriate.Becauseρispositive,ourmodelidentifiesthateconomicactivitiesorpoliciesincountyithatinfluenceresiliencehaveasimilarspilloverincountyj.

Aspatialweightmatrixofsixnearestneighborsproducedthelargestmaximumlikelihoodvalue.Thismeansthespatialdependenceofacountyextendstothesixclosest,neighboringcounties.Distancebetweencountiesisbaseduponthedistancebetweenthecentrallocationsofeachcounty,knownasacentroid.The

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SDMincorporatesaglobaleffectbyallowingfora“rippleeffect”fromchangesatasinglecountylevel,whichimpactssixneighboringcounties,eachofwhichalsoimpactssixneighboringcounties,andsoon.

Fortheestimationofcounty-levelresilience,spatialeconometricmodelsprovideanumberofadvantagesininterpretationanddiscussioncomparedtotheOLSregressionmodel.Economicresilienceisnotjustacounty-levelphenomenon.Forexample,achangeinonecounty’sabilitytogenerateeconomicresiliencethroughpoliciesthatimpactthemagnitudeofavariable(suchasanincreasedcollege-educatedpopulation)willhaveamulti-countyresponse.Spatialeconometricmodelsaccountfortheobservedspatialdependencewithinthesedata.Inaddition,basedonthedirect,indirect,andtotaleffectestimates,wecanidentifypolicyissuesthataremostappropriatelyaddressedaslocalissues(thosewithminorspillovereffects)versusthosethatarebestaddressedasregionalorstatewideissues(thosewithlargespillovereffects).

Basedonthesignsofthedirectandindirectcoefficients,wecanalsoidentifyvariablesthatprovideeithercompetitiveorcooperativestrategies.Competitivestrategiesimpactindependentvariablesthathavetheoppositesignsfordirectandindirectcoefficientestimates.Inotherwords,thestrategyincountyiwouldpromoteresilienceincountyi,whiledetractingfromresilienceincountyj.Cooperativestrategiesimpactindependentvariablesthathavethesamecoefficientsignsforbothdirectandindirectcoefficients.Thesestrategieshavethesameinfluenceonresiliencebothwithinandoutsideacounty.

3.3 Results:Importantindirecteffectsandtotaleffectsestimates

Table7presentstheresultsofthespatialeconometricmodel.Themagnitudeofthesecoefficientestimates(positiveandnegative)arerankedinTable8.Thefollowingdiscussionprovidesourinterpretationoftheestimatedcoefficientsforthestatisticallysignificantvariablesineachcategory.


Thecharacteristicsofacounty’spopulationinfluenceitsresilience.Populationsizehasthelargestpositivedirectandtotaleffectsonresilienceplusthesecond-largestindirecteffect(bothstatisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel).Asthepopulationincreaseswithinacounty,thecountyitself,aswellascountiesinthesurroundingregion,willincreaseinresilience.Thus,onaverage,largerpopulationspromotegreaterresilience.

Theagedistributionofthepopulationalsoinfluencesacounty’sresiliencelevel.Thepercentageofpopulationage25to44hasapositivedirecteffect,whiletheindirectandtotaleffectsarenegative,althoughthetotaleffectisthesmallestofallnegativecoefficients.Asthisportionofthepopulationincreaseswithinacounty,theresilienceofthatcountywillincrease.However,attractionofyoungerworkerstocountyicausesdeclinesinresiliencewithinsurroundingcountiesaswellasthetotalregionaleffect.Thisimpactmightbeexplainedbyacompetitiveeffectofbusinessesandfirmsbeingmorelikelytolocateinproximitytothe25-to-44-year-oldsegmentoftheworkforce.Thepercentofpopulationage65anduphasthelargestnegativeindirectandtotaleffects(significantatthe99percentlevel);astheolderpopulationincreaseswithinacounty,resilienceofnearbycountiesandthetotalregiondecreases.Lastly,theeducationalattainmentofthepopulationalsoinfluencesaregion’sresilience.Collegeeducationamongthepopulationhasapositivedirecteffectbutanegativeindirecteffectonresilience(bothsignificantatthe99percentlevel).Asthepercentofthepopulationwithabachelordegreeorhigherincreaseswithinacounty,theresilienceofthatcountyincreaseswhiletheresilienceofsurroundingcountiesdecreases.Thus,county-levelstrategiesthatattractmoreofacollege-educatedpopulationarecompetitivewiththeeconomicresilienceofsurroundingcounties.

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Table7:Spatialeconometricregressionestimateresultsforeconomicresilience

Direct Indirect TotalVariable Coefficient t-stat Coefficient t-stat Coefficient t-stat Demographic/mobility Age25to44 0.098 6.308*** -0.148 -6.427*** -0.050 -1.661*Age65andup -0.013 -0.333 -0.296 -2.906*** -0.309 -2.834***EthnicDiversity 0.070 1.507 0.074 0.616 0.144 1.142MobilityIn-Migration 0.124 4.724*** 0.054 0.946 0.178 3.077***MobilityOut-Migration -0.082 -3.147*** -0.127 -2.058** -0.209 -3.211***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.061 2.767*** 0.118 1.979** 0.179 2.724***MobilityOut-Commuting 0.017 0.683 -0.290 -4.376*** -0.273 -3.694***ResidenceBorn 0.021 0.712 0.064 0.727 0.085 0.887Population 0.291 10.425*** 0.394 6.471*** 0.685 11.015***LandArea -0.037 -0.628 -0.084 -0.580 -0.122 -0.774College 0.127 4.989*** -0.125 -2.599*** 0.002 0.042 Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.146 4.462*** 0.016 0.190 0.162 1.848*BusinessDensity 0.032 0.662 0.103 1.524 0.135 3.129***Self-Employment 0.014 0.398 0.010 0.115 0.025 0.258Poverty -0.086 -3.627*** -0.201 -2.758*** -0.287 -3.622***Participation 0.077 2.177** 0.021 0.236 0.098 1.051InnovationPotential 0.068 2.047** -0.051 -0.568 0.017 0.180IndustryDiversity 0.081 3.410*** -0.002 -0.031 0.079 1.031KnowledgeDiversity -0.045 -1.006 0.109 0.885 0.064 0.482Farming 0.061 2.909*** 0.521 8.572*** 0.582 8.606***Oil&Gas 0.048 1.356 0.053 0.633 0.101 1.116Coal -0.051 -2.844*** -0.042 -1.025 -0.092 -2.161**Manufacturing -0.010 -0.590 -0.078 -1.758* -0.089 -1.850*** Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.011 -0.529 0.029 0.507 0.018 0.289CommunityCollege -0.020 -1.007 -0.104 -2.033** -0.124 -2.236**Broadband -0.031 -1.723* -0.045 -0.889 -0.075 -1.367Child/ElderCare -0.017 -0.750 -0.051 -0.917 -0.069 -1.166HealthPractitioner -0.083 -4.419*** -0.102 -1.877* -0.185 -3.175***RecreationalOpportunity -0.013 -0.539 -0.118 -1.647* -0.132 -1.657*NaturalAmenity 0.010 0.454 0.105 1.691* 0.116 1.698*SocialCapital -0.012 -0.341 -0.063 -1.104 -0.075 -1.439FederalFunds -0.002 -0.052 0.040 0.511 0.038 0.469VotingCompetitiveness 0.014 0.584 -0.090 -1.574 -0.076 -1.276Agritourism 0.012 0.582 0.042 0.947 0.053 1.195DirectFarmSales 0.009 0.539 -0.190 -3.795*** -0.181 -3.256***Note: Significance levels: Different from zero at 10%*, 5%**, and 1% or lower***. Spatial Durbin Model, six nearest neighbors. Dependent variable = Resilience. R2 = 0.2585. Rbar-2 = 0.2410. sigma2 = 0.7222. log-likelihood = -2786.655. Nobs, Nvars = 3,049, 71. ρ = 0.220 ***.

Fourvariablesmeasuringmobilityareincludedwithinthisanalysis:in-migration,out-migration,in-commuting,andout-commuting.In-migrationhaspositivedirectandtotaleffects(significantatthe99percentlevel).Asmorepeoplemigratetoacounty,resilienceofthecountyandthesurroundingcountiesincreases.Ascommunitiescreateplaceswherepeoplewanttolive,thepopulationsofthesecommunitieswillincrease,aswilltheresilience.Conversely,out-migrationhasnegativedirect,indirect,andtotaleffectsonresilience(directandtotalsignificantatthe99percentlevel).Aspeopleleaveacounty,presumablyforjobsandeconomicopportunitieselsewhere,resiliencedeclinesthroughouttheentireregion.Thus,out-migrationhasnegativeimpactsontheresilienceforthecounty,surroundingcounties,andtheregionasawhole.

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Table8:RankedorderofpositiveandnegativeimpactsofstatisticallysignificantSDMbetacoefficients

Direct Indirect TotalPositive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative

PopulationDistancetoCityCollegeMobilityIn-MigrationAge25to44IndustryDiversityParticipationInnovationPotentialFarmingMobilityIn-Commuting

PovertyHealthPractitionerMobilityOut-MigrationCoalBroadband

FarmingPopulationMobilityIn-CommutingNaturalAmenity

Age65andupMobilityOut-CommutingPovertyDirectFarmSalesAge25to44MobilityOut-MigrationCollegeRecreationalOpportunityCommunityCollegeHealthPractitionerManufacturing

PopulationFarmingMobilityIn-CommutingMobilityIn-MigrationDistancetoCityBusinessDensityNaturalAmenity

Age65andupPovertyMobilityOut-CommutingMobilityOut-MigrationHealthPractitionerDirectFarmSalesRecreationalOpportunityCommunityCollegeCoalManufacturingAge25to44

Note: Variables are listed from highest to lowest impact.

In-commutingmobilityhaspositivedirect,indirect,andtotaleffectsoneconomicresilience(significantatthe99percentlevel).Asthenumberofpeoplewhocommuteintoacountyforemploymentincreases,theresilienceoftheentireregionalsoincreases.Anincreaseinthenumberofin-commuterswillincreaseparticipationinthelocaleconomy.Highin-commutinglevelsalsoindicatea“wealthy”region,fullofemploymentopportunitiesandothereconomicresources.Out-commutinghasstatisticallysignificantnegativeindirectandtotaleffectsonresilience(significantatthe99percentlevel).Asout-commutingincreasesfromthecounty,theresilienceofthesurroundingcountiesandthetotalregiondecreases.Oneexplanationforthisoutcomemaybethatemploymentlevelsincountiessurroundingthosecountieswithhighpercentagesofout-commutingdidnotreboundtothesamelevelaftertheGreatRecessionbecausepeoplecommutingfromoutofthecountyforemploymentarelesslikelytoreturntoemploymentinsurroundingcountiesaftertherecessionreceded.


Theregionalplacementofthecountyaswellasitspovertyrateandbusinessdensityallinfluencetheresilienceofacounty.Asthedistancetoalargecityincreases,theresilienceofacountyandthetotalregionincreases.Thisresultcontrastswiththeestimatedpositivecoefficientforthepopulationvariable.Anincreaseinbusinessdensityinacountyhasapositiveimpactontheresilienceoftheentireregion(statisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel).Theindirecteffectisthreetimeslargerthanthedirecteffect,sothatthisvariablehasalargerimpactonaregionalbasiscomparedtoacountybasis.Povertyhasthelargestnegativedirecteffect,thethird-largestindirecteffect,andthesecond-largesttotaleffect(each

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statisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel).Theportionofthepopulationinpovertywithinacountyhasanimportantinfluenceontheresilienceoftheentireregion.Aspovertyincreasesinacounty,theresilienceofthecounty,itssurroundingcounties,andtheentireregionwilldecrease.

Theindustrycompositionofacountyalsoreflectsitsresilience.Farming,coal,andmanufacturingemploymenteachhavestatisticallysignificanteffects.Employmentinfarminghaspositivedirect,indirect,andtotaleffects(eachstatisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel).Asfarmingemploymentgrowsinacounty,resilienceofthatcounty,surroundingcounties,andthetotalregionwillincrease.Farmingemploymenthasauniqueeffectonresilience.Farminghasaverysmallpositivedirecteffectatthecountylevel;however,itincreasesresilienceinthecountiesoftheentireregionbyamagnitudeofoverninetimesgreaterthanforthecountyitself(thelargestpositiveindirecteffect).Employmentinthecoalindustryhasanegativedirecteffect(statisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel)andtotaleffect(statisticallysignificantatthe95percentlevel).Asemploymentinthecoalindustryincreasesinacounty,resilienceoftheentireregionwilldecrease.Manufacturingemploymenthasslightlynegativeindirectandtotaleffects(statisticallysignificantatthe90percentlevel).Asmanufacturingemploymentincreaseswithinacounty,resilienceforthesurroundingcountiesandtotalregiondecreasesslightly,asthecoefficientsaresmall.


Communityandhealthvariablesinfluenceresilienceatboththecountyandregionallevels.Variablesreflectingemploymentopportunitiesthatsupportthecommunityandthenaturalresourcebasewithinacommunityhavestatisticallysignificanteffects.Employmentincommunitycollegeshasnegativeindirectandtotaleffects(statisticallysignificantatthe95percentlevel).Employmentincreasesincommunitycollegesmayreflectthefactthatmoreofthepopulationinsurroundingcountiesiscontinuingtheireducationinsteadofenteringtheworkforce.Employmentinhealthcarehasnegativedirect,indirect,andtotaleffects(statisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevelfordirectandtotaleffects).Ifacountyhasahigherlevelofemploymentinthehealthcarepractitionerfield,thismayreflectthatthecountyandsurroundingcountypopulationsarelesshealthy,creatingalowerpercentageofthepopulationbeingemployed.Thus,whilecountiesmayobservetheeconomicgainsofprovidinghealthcareservices,theemploymentlossesassociatedwithmorepeopleusinghealthcareservicesisnotasreadilyobserved.

Employmentinarts,entertainment,andrecreationhasnegativeindirectandtotaleffectsonresilience(significantatthe95percentlevel).Asrecreationopportunitiesincreaseinacounty,resilienceinthesurroundingcountiesandtheentireregiondecreases.Whiletheseresultsaredifficulttoexplain,recreationalemploymenttendsnottobeparticularlystableduetotheseasonalityoftheseoccupations.Afterarecession,employmentlevelswithinthisindustrymaynotreboundaswellasotherindustries.Conversely,naturalamenitieshavepositiveindirectandtotaleffectsonresilience.Acountywithhighqualitynaturalamenitiesprovidespositivespillovereffectsonthesurroundingcountiesandtotalregionresilience.Thus,preservationofnaturalamenitieswithinacountyisimportanttoresilienceofalargerregion.Directfarmsaleshavenegativeindirectandtotaleffects(statisticallysignificantatthe99percentlevel).Asdirectfarmsalesincreasewithinacounty,resilienceofsurroundingcountiesandthetotalregiondecrease.Thus,anyresiliencybenefitsofdirectfarmsalestendtostaywithinthehostcounty,thoughnotatastatisticallysignificantlevel.

Directfarmsalesdohavenegativespillovereffectsinsurroundingcounties.However,thisvariabledoesnotindicatethesizeofthefarmingindustryinacounty.Thisvariablereflectstheaveragefarmsalesvalueperfarm.Countiessurroundinglargemetropolitanareastendtohaveahighervalueofdirectfarmsalesthancountiesinpredominantlyruralareas.Thus,thesecoefficientestimatesmayreflectmetropolitanlocationratherthandirectfarmsalesthemselves.

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3.4 Countyrelationshipsandpolicystrategies

TheOLSresultsonlyexaminetheimpactofcounty-levelvariablesoneconomicresiliencewithintheirowncounty.However,aspatialeconometricmodelprovidesamulti-dimensionalanalysisthatexplorescounty-levelvariableimpactsontheirownplusneighboringcounties’resilience.

Whenmakingpolicyrecommendationsbasedontheobservedvariables,onemustconsiderthatapolicyimplementedinagivencountymayimpactsurroundingcounties.Whilecertainpoliciesarebestdealtwithassingle-countyissues,othersmaybemoreefficientlyimplementedasajointeffortwithsurroundingcounties(orevenatthestatelevel).Thevariablesimpactingresiliencemayalsopointtodifferentstrategiesneededtoaddressapolicyissue.Basedontheresultsofthespilloveranalysis,policiesmaybecomplementary(cooperative)orcompetitiveacrosscountylines.Cooperativestrategiesstrengthentheresilienceofsurroundingcounties,whilecompetitivestrategiesweakentheirresilience.

3.4.1 Localorstrictlycounty-levelimpacts

Variablessuchasthelabormarketparticipationrate,potentialforeconomicinnovation,andindustrialdiversityallhavepositivedirecteffectsonresilienceatthecountylevelonly(seeTable9).Theseapproachesneitherhelpnorhurtresilienceinneighboringcounties.Thesevariablessupportthebeststrategyandpracticeofmovingmultiplesectorsforwardforeconomicdevelopmentdiscussedinthequalitativeanalysis.Policymakerscantakecounty-levelapproacheswithouttheconcernofhowthesepolicieswillaffectthesurroundingregions.

3.4.2 Cooperativeregionalpolicystrategies

Basedonourresults,weidentifytwotypesofmulti-countypolicyapproaches:cooperativeandaltruistic-cooperative(seeTable9).Cooperativepolicystrategiesincludevariableswithstatisticallysignificantcoefficientsfordirectandindirecteffectsthathavethesamesigns.Policiesinthisclassificationincludethosethatincreasepopulation,decreasepoverty,andreduceout-migration.Ifwetakethebestpracticefromthequalitativeanalysisofengagingthecommunityoverthelong-term,aspovertyisalleviated,resiliencewillbepromotedbothwithinacountyandinsurroundingcounties.

Altruistic-cooperativepoliciesincludevariableswithstatisticallyinsignificantdirecteffectsbutstatisticallysignificantpositivecoefficientsfortheindirectand/ortotaleffects.Policiesinthisclassificationincludethosethatprotectorenhancenaturalamenities,increasethenumberofbusinessespercapita,andincreasefarmemployment.Identifyingandgrowingtheassetsinthecommunityandregionislistedasabestpracticewithinthequalitativeanalysis;however,amenitieshaveastrongerregionalimpactoneconomicresiliencethanacounty-levelimpact.Thus,uniquenessshouldbeviewedmorebroadlythansolelyatthecountylevel.

Cultivatingentrepreneursanddevelopingresourcesforbusinessstart-upsisalsolistedasoneofthebestpracticesinthequalitativeanalysis;however,cultivatingbusinessesinacommunityisbeneficialforeconomicresilienceofsurroundingcounties,too.Farmingisincludedinthealtruistic-cooperativecategoryduetoitsverysmall(althoughstatisticallysignificant)directeffect,butverylargeindirectandtotaleffects.

Growingvaluechainsisoneaspectofanotherbestpracticeidentifiedinthequalitativeanalysis.Farmingemploymenthasastrongereffectasaregionalmarketthanasamarketjustatthecountylevel.

Ifcounty-levelpolicymakerstakeanisolatedapproachtothesealtruistic-cooperativepolicyissues,thecountywillnotreceivemeasurablebenefitsfromthesepolicies,accordingtoourmodel.Thus,regionalorstatewideapproachesaremostappropriatewhenfocusingonthesestrategiestoimproveresilience.

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3.4.3 Competitiveregionalpolicystrategies

Basedonourmodelresults,wecanidentifytwolevelsofcompetitivestrategies:competitiveandultra-competitive(seeTable9).Competitivepolicystrategiesincludevariableswithstatisticallysignificantcoefficientsfordirectandindirecteffectswithoppositesigns.Policieswithinthisclassificationincludethosethatrelatetooraffectthepercentofpopulationage25to44aswellasthepercentofpopulationwithacollegedegree.Growingyouthengagementandnextgenerationleadershipisanotherbestpracticeidentifiedinthequalitativeanalysis.Ascountiesseektoattractthesepeople,whoarehighlyengagedintheworkforce,theresilienceofthecountywillincrease.However,theresilienceofsurroundingcountiesandthetotalregionwilldecline,accordingtoourmodel.

Ultra-competitivestrategiesincludevariableswithstatisticallyinsignificantcoefficientsfordirecteffectsbutstatisticallysignificantnegativecoefficientsforindirectortotaleffects.Strategieswithinthisclassificationincludethosethatincreasetheamountofelderlypopulation,increasedirectfarmsales,increaserecreationalopportunity,andincreaseemploymentatcommunitycollegesandmanufacturingfacilities.

Table9:Policiescategorizedbyimpactandimplicationsforsurroundingcounties

Strictlycounty-level Regional-levelimpactsimpacts Cooperative Altruistic-cooperative Competitive Ultra-competitive

PoliciesthatincreasethediversityofindustriesandinnovationpotentialPoliciesthatincreaseparticipationoftheworkforce

PoliciesthatincreasecountypopulationsizePoliciesthatdecreasethepovertyratePoliciesthatreducetheout-migrationofcountylevelpopulation

PoliciesthatprotectorenhancenaturalamenitiesPoliciesthatincreasethenumberofbusinessespercapitawithinacountyPoliciesthatincreasefarmemployment

Policiesthatattractcollege-educatedpeoplePoliciesthatattractyoungerworkers(25to44)

Policiesthatincreasetheportionofthepopulationage65+PoliciesthatencouragedirectfarmsalesPoliciesthatincreasetheemploymentinthearts,entertainment,andrecreationPoliciesthatincreasecommunitycollegeemploymentPoliciesthatincreasemanufacturingemployment

Note: Strictly county-level impacts include variables with statistically significant coefficients for direct effects but no indirect or total effects. Cooperative impacts include variables with statistically significant coefficients for direct and indirect effects with the same signs. Altruistic-cooperative impacts include variables with statistically insignificant coefficients for direct effects but statistically significant positive coefficients for indirect or total effects. Competitive impacts include variables with statistically significant coefficients for direct and indirect effects with opposite signs. Ultra-competitive impacts include variables with statistically insignificant coefficients for direct effects but statistically significant negative coefficients for indirect or total effects. “Policies that increase farm employment” is included in the altruistic-cooperative category due to its very small (although statistically significant) direct effect but very large indirect effect.

3.5 Identificationofhighlyresilientcounties

HighlyresilientcountiesareidentifiedbasedontheresidualvaluesestimatedforeachcountyfromtheanalysisoftheSDM.ResidualvaluesarecalculatedasthedifferencebetweenobservedresiliencevalueandthepredictedresiliencefromtheSDM.Countieswithapositiveresidualgreaterthan2.5standarddeviationsfromthemeanareidentifiedashighlyresilient.TheSDMidentified72countiesacrosstheUnitedStatesthatover-performedwithhighlevelsofresilience;Table10ranksthetopfifteenofthese72counties.OverhalfofthesecountiesarefromNorthDakotaandTexas,whereemploymentwassignificantlyimpactedbytheexpansionofshaleoilandgasproduction.

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Ofthe72countiesidentifiedashighlyresilient,fivearelocatedwithintheAppalachianRegion.Table11ranksthesecountiesbasedonthehighestresidualvalue.ThreeofthefivecountiesarelocatedwithinWestVirginia.

Table10:Top15highlyresilientcountiesbasedonresidualvalues

County FIPS Resilience ResidualAppalachian

RegionDunn,ND 38025 1.48 6.76 NoGrant,OK 40053 1.30 6.44 NoFairfield,SC 45039 1.28 6.02 NoTwiggs,GA 13289 1.25 5.99 NoKarnes,TX 48255 1.31 5.92 NoWilliams,ND 38105 1.42 5.60 NoDimmit,TX 48127 1.17 5.20 NoMountrail,ND 38061 1.27 5.10 NoRockwall,TX 48397 1.31 4.85 NoLyon,IA 19119 1.16 4.80 NoMcKenzie,ND 38053 1.32 4.77 NoCuster,NE 31041 1.12 4.74 NoKendall,TX 48259 1.27 4.63 NoCameron,LA 22023 1.11 4.35 NoKemper,MS 28069 1.08 4.24 Yes

Table11:Most-resilientcountiesintheAppalachianRegion

County FIPS Resilience ResidualKemper,MS 28069 1.08 4.24Doddridge,WV 54017 0.90 3.10Bledsoe,TN 47007 0.85 2.24Monongalia,WV 54061 0.84 2.22Taylor,WV 54091 0.83 2.22

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4. QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFRESILIENCEOurqualitativeanalysisofresilienceincludedinterviews,afocusgroup,anAdvisoryTeam,andasurvey(seeFigure5).

AnextensiveliteraturereviewforthequalitativeanalysiswasconductedfromNovember2016throughJanuary2017tohighlightpotentialbestpractices,strategies,andpossiblecasestudiesfortheproject,whichweresharedwithprojectteammembers.

ThesesuggestionswerethenpresentedtotheAdvisoryTeamfortheprojectonitsfirstcallonFebruary6,2017forfeedbackandideageneration,whichisavailableinAppendixC.FeedbackwasalsosharedviaemailbothbeforeandaftertheAdvisoryTeamcall.

InitialinterviewswereheldbyphonebetweenJanuaryandMarch2017.Whileinterviewswereconfidentialandallresultskeptanonymous,summariesweredraftedfromeachinterview.Then,initialbestpracticesandstrategiesweredevelopedaskeythemesemergedfromtheinterviewsandwerehighlightedintheInterviewSummary.TheInterviewSummarywassharedwithintervieweesandAdvisoryTeammembersattheconclusionoftheinterviewprocess.AppendixBsummarizestheideasfromtheinterviewsunderthethemes:

• bestpracticesandrelatedstrategies,• tools,• resources,• pointsofinspiration,• challenges,• guidebookformatIdeas,• ideasofotherstoreachoutto,and• potentialcasestudylocations.

AppendixBalsoincludesalistofintervieweesandinterviewquestions.InitialintervieweeswereselectedwithprojectteamandARCfeedbacktorepresentabalancedvarietyofbackgrounds,affiliations,geographies,experiences,andknowledgesets.Intervieweesforthesecondroundofinterviewswereselectedbasedonfocusgroupfeedback,withthegoalofroundingouttheinitiallistofintervieweesforbackgroundandsectorrepresentation.

AfocusgroupmeetingwasthenheldwithkeythoughtleadersinAppalachia,includingAdvisoryTeammembers,inApril2017tosolicitfeedbackonthedraftbestpracticesandstrategies,withbothvideoandin-personmeetingparticipationoptions(themeetingwasheldinDuffield,Virginia,attheLENOWISCOPlanningDistrictCommissionoffice).AppendixAincludesasummaryofthefocusgroupmeetingandacopyofthepresentationthatwassharedduringthefocusgroup,withinitialqualitativeandquantitativefindings.Focusgroupparticipantsprovidedextensivefeedbackduringthemeetingaswellasfollowingthemeetingviaemailandphone,whichlargelyconfirmedthedraftbestpracticesandstrategies.Onenewbestpracticewasadded,andtwowerecombined.Inaddition,focusgroupparticipantssuggestedthatadditionalinterviewsbeconductedwithkeysectors.

Next,asecondroundofinterviewswereheldinAprilandMay2017tovetthedraftpracticesandstrategies,gatheradditionalfeedback,andcontinuetorefinetheinitialbestpracticesandstrategies.

Finally,apractitionersurveywassharedinlateMaythroughearlyJune2017withpractitionersacrosstheAppalachianRegiontoprioritizethedraftbestpracticesandstrategiesandsolicitnewideas.Atotalof151responseswerereceivedfromacrosstheregion.ThesurveyisshowninAppendixD.Surveyresponsesconfirmedthedraftbestpracticesandstrategiesidentifiedbythequalitativeteamandhighlightedseveralspecificideasandneeds.

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AfinalAdvisoryTeamcallwasheldinJune2018tosharefinalbestpractices,strategies,andquantitativeanalysisfindings,andideasweresharedabouthowtosynthesizethequantitativeandqualitativefindings.AppendixCsummarizesthisAdvisoryTeamcall.

ResultsfromtheaforementionedstepsweresynthesizedintoeightbestpracticesforgrowingeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion:


Theguidebook,acompanionreporttothistechnicalreport,expandsuponeachofthesebestpracticeswithprioritizedstrategies,highlights,casestudies,andeconomicstrategies.

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Figure5:Summaryofqualitativeresearchactivities

LiteratureReview,Nov.

2016-Jan.2017• Initalbestpractces,strategies,andpossiblecasestudies

AdvisoryTeamcall,Feb.2017

• Documentssentinadvanceforreview;feedbacksharedduringcallandauerviaemail

FirstRoundofInterviews,Jan.-March2017,withkeythoughtleadersacross

Appalachia

• Draubestpractces,strategies,andcasestudyideasaresynthesizedfrominterviewsinaninterviewsummarydocumentandpreparedforapresentatontoafocusgroup

FocusGroupMee^ng,April2017,withkeythoughtleadersinAppalachiaandAdvisory

Teammembers

• Suggestonforchangeofonebestpractceandforadditonalinterviewstobeconductedbythefoucsgroup

SecondRoundofInterviews,April-May2017,tovetdraubestpractcesandstrategies

• Finalbestpractcesandstrategiesweresynthesizedfromadditonalinterviewsandfocusgroupfeedbackviaemail

Survey,lateMay-earlyJune2017,tosharedraubestpractces,strategies,andadditonalquestons

• 151responseswerereceivedandresponsesconfirmeddraubestpractceandstrategyidentficatonbyqualitatveteam

FinalAdvisoryTeamcall,June2018,tosharefinalbestpractces,strategies,and

quanttatveanalysisfindings.

• Ideasweresharedabouthowtosynthesizethequanttatveandqualitatvefindings

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5. CASESTUDYSELECTIONTheguidebookproducedforthisprojectincludes,amongotherthings,10casestudies.Selectionofthesecasestudieswasinformedbythequalitativeandquantitativeanalyses,aswellasbestprofessionaljudgmentfromtheprojectteamandARCstaff.

Casestudyselectionwasaniterativeprocess.Intotal,thethreeprongsoftheresiliencestudyresultedinalistof112candidatecounties7forcasestudies.

Theteamthendevelopedasystemofreviewthroughwhichthisnumbercouldbereduced.Theresearchteam,withinputfromARCstaff,establishedgeneralcriteriaforcasestudyselection.Idealcasestudyareaswould:

• beidentifiedashighlyresilientfromoneorbothofthequantitativeeconomicanalyses;• besuggestedbymultipleintervieweesinthequalitativeanalysis;• haveahighdegreeofapplicabilitytotheAppalachianRegion;• ideally,exhibitcollaborativeplanningforeconomicdevelopmentand/orcommunity

development;and/or• relatetomultiplebestpracticesand/orstrategies;

Thequantitativeresearchteamsindependentlyevaluatedtheirrespectiveresultsandengagedincursoryresearchtoselectcandidatesfromtheirtopresults.Manycountieswereremovedatthisstagebasedonbestprofessionaljudgment.Thesecountieswereremovedforseveralreasons,butlargelyifthehighresilienceoftheareawasdueto:

• factorslargelyinapplicabletoAppalachia,• non-repeatablefactors,or• asingle,largeeconomicdevelopmentprojectthatoccurredatpreciselythecorrectpointintimeto

influencethatcounty’soutcomeintheanalysis.

Twenty-fourhighlyresilientcountieswereidentifiedbasedontheirresiliencevalueresultfromtheOLSmodel(seeTable12).Thesecountieswereconsideredforinclusionascasestudies.AppendixHshowsemploymentchartsforthese24counties.

AsshownaboveinTable5,anothersetof24countieswereidentifiedbasedontheirhighresidualsintheOLSmodel.Theresilienceexhibitedbythesecountieswasgreaterthanexpectedbythemodel.AppendixGshowsemploymentchartsforthese24counties.Thesecountieswerealsoconsideredforinclusioninthecasestudies.SomeofthehighlyresilientcountiesidentifiedinTable12alsohavehighresidualsandareincludedinTable5.

7 Multiple scales—towns, counties, or groups of counties—were considered for case study selection. Ultimately, nine of the selected case studies are counties, and one is a two-county area.

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Figure6:The112candidatecasestudycounties

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Table12:Top24countiesbasedonresilienceintheOLSmodel

CountyPopulation(2015) Resilience

Netgrowth Dominantsectorinrecovery

Sectorgrowth

Percentofjobgrowth


Kemper,MS 10,551 1.08 1,206 Construction 909 75.4%Swain,NC 13,463 0.91 2,801 Localgovernment 2,473 88.3%Doddridge,WV 7,808 0.90 402 Naturalresources&mining 183 45.5%Jackson,GA 50,607 0.90 7,675 Trade,transportation,&utilities 3,389 44.2%Bledsoe,TN 12,685 0.85 1,056 N/A N/A N/AMonongalia,WV 88,424 0.84 9,033 Education&healthservices 2,318 25.7%Taylor,WV 16,318 0.83 459 N/A N/A N/AHolmes,OH 41,630 0.81 3,781 Manufacturing 1,939 51.3%Union,MS 26,569 0.81 3,127 Manufacturing 1,939 62.0%Bradley,TN 93,024 0.81 9,133 Professional&businessservices 2,084 22.8%Harrison,WV 67,989 0.79 2,088 Education&healthservices 959 45.9%Morgan,TN 20,959 0.78 424 N/A N/A N/AForsyth,GA 137,643 0.77 19,190 Professional&businessservices 3986 20.8%Madison,KY 78,732 0.76 6,349 Manufacturing 2,077 32.7%Washington,PA 205,359 0.76 9,491 Professional&businessservices 3,642 38.4%Butler,PA 179,522 0.76 7,908 Professional&businessservices 2,412 30.5%Sevier,TN 81,275 0.76 9,022 Leisure&hospitality 5554 61.6%Chenango,NY 51,154 0.75 2,773 Manufacturing 1,648 59.4%Oktibbeha,MS 43,985 0.75 3161 Leisure&hospitality 1,278 40.4%Buncombe,NC 221,642 0.75 18,048 Education&healthservices 4,856 26.9%Cherokee,GA 182,128 0.75 12,677 Trade,transportation,&utilities 3,314 26.1%Hall,GA 160,979 0.74 14,859 Manufacturing 4,697 31.6%Pickett,TN 4,997 0.74 248 Trade,transportation,&utilities 144 58.1%St.Clair,AL 72,596 0.73 3331 Manufacturing 1,504 45.2%Source: USDL (2015). Note: The data is not seasonally adjusted.

OthercandidatecountiesforfurtherstudyfromtheOLSmodelarethosethathaveahighresidualandalsohavehighself-employmentshares.ThetopsixsuchcountiesareshowninAppendixI.Fourofthesesixcountieswerealreadyidentifiedashavinghighresilienceand/orhighresiduals.Twocounties—Fannin,GAandAlcorn,MS—werenotpreviouslyidentified.

Table10,above,liststhetop15highlyresilientcountiesidentifiedintheSDMbasedonresidualvalues.

AsillustratedinTable13,53areaswereidentifiedinthequalitativeresearch.Mostoftheseareasincludesinglecounties,butseveral,suchasthePennsylvaniaWildsareainPennsylvania,aremulti-countyareas.

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Table13:Potentialcasestudyareasidentifiedinthequalitativeresearch

County1 Elkhart,IN2 Jacksonville,FL3 BritishColumbia4 EastCentralVT(Addison,Orange,Rutland(particularly),Windsorcounties)5 SouthwestVA(Wise,Russell,Scott,Tazewellcounties;townsofWiseandNorton)6 AthensCounty,OH7 Chattanooga,TN8 CoastalFisheries,ME(York,Cumberland,Sagadahoc,Lincoln,Knox,Waldo,

Hancock,Washingtoncounties)9 PennsylvaniaWilds,PA(countiesofCameron,Centre,Clarion,Clearfield,Clinton,

ElkForest,Jefferson,Lycoming,McKean,Potter,Tioga,andWarren)10 Rutland,VT11 Beckley,WV12 Morganton,NC13 MingoCountyWV14 Gilbert,WV15 Asheville,NC16 Greenbrier,WV17 EasternKYCounties(especiallythetownofWhitesburg)18 Fayetteville,WV19 Charleston,WV20 Huntington,WV21 Tri-Cities:JohnsonCity,TN,Bristol,TN,andKingsport,VA22 Danville,PA23 Bloomsburg,PA24 Columbia,PA25 Ohiopyle,PA26 FayetteCounty,PA27 Tupelo,MS28 Oxford,MS29 Florence,MS30 MussellShoals,MS31 Bucksport,ME32 DickinsonCounty,IA33 Cleveland,OH34 Sparksville,MO35 Columbus,MO36 Roanoke,VA37 Blacksburg,VA38 Louisville,KY39 Marion,VA40 Moorehead,MN41 Belfast,ME42 Damariscotta,ME43 Pittsburgh,PA44 RockCastleCounty,KY45 Lawrence,KS46 BeckwithCounty,KS47 Buckhannon,WV48 Grafton,WV49 Wheeling,WV50 Williamson,WV51 Princeton,WV52 Fairmont,WV53 Bellingham,WA

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Wealsocategorizedeachcountyaccordingtoitspatternoftotalemploymentacrossthetimeperiodofconcern(2000-2016),withanemphasisonhowemploymentrespondedtotheGreatRecession.Thiscreatedaconsistentbaselineuponwhichtoconsidertheresilienceofthesecommunitiesand,pairedwiththequantitativedefinitionofresilience,offeredanopportunitytoquicklyremovethosecountiesthatdidnotmeetthecriteriaofbeingidentifiedasresilient.Ourcategoricalbreakdownofcountieswasasfollows:

A. Noemploymentshockorveryminimalemploymentshockin2008B. Employmentdeclinepre-dating2008C. Shockinemploymentevidentin2008,noemploymentrecoverysinceD. Shockinemploymentevidentin2008,recoveryevidentsince

ThosecountiesinCategoryDwereofparticularinteresttotheresearchteam,becausetheymostclearlyexhibitedevidenceofrecoveryfollowingashock.Thosecountieswithseriousemploymentdeclineandnosubsequentrecovery(CategoryC)wereeffectivelyremovedascasestudycandidatesatthispoint,aswerethosecountiesinCategoryB.Atthistime,noCategoryAcountieswereincludedasprospectivecasestudycounties.

Afternarrowingdownthelistofcountiesbasedonthefactorsdescribedabove,40oftheoriginal112candidatecountiesremained.Wethenengagedinadeeperresearcheffortontheremaining40counties,whereinwemorecarefullyexaminedallavailabledata.Wereviewedthemodelvariabledataand,whereavailable,draftcasestudyinformationdraftedbythequalitativeteam.Weresearchedconditionsthatmightsupportornegatetheinclusionofthesecounties,basedonthecasestudycriteria.Thiseffortallowedustoquicklydiscountanumberofcountiesbasedonoutlierconditions,suchasevidencethateconomicrecoverywastiedtotheopeningofasingle,largeemployersuchasaprisonorpowerplant.Theseentities,whilevaluableforemployment,arenotgenerallyrepeatableorapplicabletoothergeographiesandareoutsidetheaimofthebestpractices.Welookedspecificallyforevidenceofintentionaleconomicand/orcommunityplanningthatreflectedrecommendedbestpractices,aswellasexistingconditionsthatreflectedthosebestpractices.

Theresearchteamconvenedtoreviewthisanalysisandmakerecommendationsonnextsteps.Astrongcasewasmadebyseveralresearchteammemberstomorecloselyexamineanumberofothercounties—especiallyanumberofthosewithinCategoryA(noemploymentshockorveryminimalemploymentshockin2008).Forallcategories,iftheindependentresearchofanyteammembersresultedinastrongcaseforinclusionofcountiesfromCategoriesA,B,orC,thosecountieswereincludedinsubsequentresearch.AsmallnumberofCategoryBandCcountieswerealsoaddedinthismanner.Teammembersrecommendedspecificcountiesaswellassomerevisionstothereviewmethodologyandweengagedinasecondaryroundofresearch.

Thesecondroundofresearchspecificallyaddressedmanyofthecasestudyselectioncriteriaandincluded41counties;thisincluded14additionsto,and13deletionsfrom,thepreviouslistof40counties.

Inthisphase,certaincountieswereincludedifwethoughtthatthecountywaspoisedtobecomeeconomicallyresilient.Thesecounties,whichwerefertoas“cuspcommunities”intheselectioncriteria,werealsoconsideredascandidatesforplace-basedexamplesintheguidebook.Theseareasmayhaveallthefactorsinplacetobecomeresilientinthecoming4-6years,butmaynothaveachievedalevelofresiliencethatwarrantsconsideringthemasfullcasestudylocations.

Basedonbestprofessionaljudgment,theprojectteamthennarrowedthelisttothestrongest32candidatecountiesandprovidedallreviewinformationaswellasinteractivewebmaptoARCstaffforreview.

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ARCstaffselectedthefinalgroupofcasestudiesaftercarefulconsiderationofmaterialsprovidedtothembytheresearchteamaboutthecandidatecounties,whichincludedresultsofthequantitativeanalysisaswellasbackgroundinformation.ThestaffmembersatARCweighedthefollowingfactorswhiledeterminingthelocationsofthecasestudies:

1) resultsofthequantitativemodelmeasuringeconomicresiliency;2) historicalcontextaboutthecommunity,suchasinformationaboutthespecificemploymentshock

andrecoveryefforts;3) socioeconomiccharacteristicsofthecommunities;4) geographiccoveragethroughouttheAppalachianRegion;and5) ifoutsideofAppalachia,whetherthecommunityisrelatable—andwhetherlessonslearnedwould

beapplicable—totheRegion.

Basedonthesequantitativeandqualitativeconsiderations,ARCstaffselectedadiverseandbalancedgroupofcasestudylocations(seeFigure7andTable14).BecausetheAppalachianRegion,whichspans13statesandishometomorethan25millionpeople,isheterogeneousinnature,thegoalwastoselectasetoflocationsdiverseenoughsothatmost—ifnotall—communitiesthroughouttheRegionwouldbeabletoidentifywiththeexperiencesofthecasestudies.

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Figure7:Thetencasestudyareas

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ThesecasestudyareasincludefourcountiesconsideredduetotheirmodeledresiliencyfromtheOLSmodelandfivecountiesconsideredduetotheirresidualsfromtheOLSmodel.NoneofthesefinalcasestudyareasweresourcedfromtheSDM.Fourofthefinalcasestudycountieswereidentifiedinthequalitativeresearch,andoneother(Flathead,MT)wasaddedbasedoninputfromARCstaff.

Table14:Thetencasestudycounties

County(ies) FIPS

Highresilience(OLS)

Highresidual(OLS) Qualitative? Cusp?

Dickinson,IA 19059 X NoFannin,GA 13111 X MaybeFlathead,MT 30029 MaybeSt.Clair,AL 01115 X NoMcCracken,KY 21145 X YesHolmes,OH 39075 X X NoChenango,NY 36017 X X NoHarrison,WV 54033 X X NoMcKean,PA 42083 X MaybeLeeandItawamba,MS 28081,28057 X X Yes

Theguidebook,whichisthesecondreportforthisproject,includesdetaileddescriptionsofeachofthe10casestudyareas.

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6. CONCLUSIONInthisproject,weappliedintegratedquantitativeandqualitativeresearchtoidentifypolicies,bestpractices,andassociatedstrategiesforgrowingeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion.

Thefirstquantitativeanalysis,aconventionalOLSanalysis,assesseseachcountyacrosstheUnitedStatesinisolation.Thesecond,aspatialeconometricmodel,extendsthefirstmodelbyallowingforspilloversofeconomicprocessesacrosscountylines.Bothoftheseanalysesinvestigatethesamesetof35variables.

Thequalitativeresearchincludedinterviews,afocusgroup,anAdvisoryTeam,andasurvey.Itgroundedthestatisticalresultswithinformationfrompractitioners.

ResultsweresynthesizedintoeightbestpracticesforgrowingeconomicresilienceintheAppalachianRegion:


Throughouranalysis,wealsoidentified10casestudyareasfromwhichwegainedfurtherinsightintohowcommunitiesareevolvingtheirapproachtoeconomicdevelopmentandresilience,bothinsideandoutsidetheAppalachianRegion.

Whilethistechnicalreportdocumentsdetailsofouranalysis,theotherreport,aguidebook,providesbestpractices,strategies,andcasestudiesforeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,localgovernmentofficials,nonprofitorganizations,andothersworkingintheAppalachianRegion.

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CenterforRegionalEconomicCompetitivenessandWestVirginiaUniversity.2015.AppalachiaThenandNow:ExaminingchangestotheAppalachianRegionsince1965.PreparedforARC.February.https://www.arc.gov/assets/research_reports/AppalachiaThenAndNowCompiledReports.pdf

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Goetz,StephanJ.,YicheolHan,JillL.FindeisandKathrynJ.Brasier.2010.“U.S.CommutingNetworksandEconomicGrowth:MeasurementandImplicationsforSpatialPolicy,”GrowthandChange41(2):276-302.

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Goetz,StephanJ.andYicheolHan.2015.SocialCapital,CountyInformationNetworksandPovertyReduction.ChapterinS.DellerandJ.Halstead(eds),SocialCapitalattheCommunityLevel,Routledge,UK.

______________________.2017.TheInnovationPotentialofLocalEconomies.(Underreview)

Gunn,Dwyer.2017.HowtoSaveCoalCountry:ForgetDonaldTrump'spromisestobringbackminingjobs.There'saneweconomicstrategyatworkinAppalachia.March2.https://newrepublic.com/article/141013/save-coal-country

Hals,TomandTracyRucinski.2016.CoalminerAlphaemergesfrombankruptcyamiddoubtsonoutlook.Reuters.http://www.reuters.com/article/us-alpha-natural-bankruptcy-idUSKCN1062Q0

Han,YicheolandStephanJ.Goetz.2015.“TheeconomicresilienceofUScountiesduringtheGreatRecession,”TheReviewofRegionalStudies45(2):131-149.

Hansen,Evan,JosephJames,JerryColeman.2016.Allofoureggsinonebasket?AnupdateonthedeclineofCentralAppalachiancoalandincreasingbudgetwoesinWestVirginia.January6.http://www.downstreamstrategies.com/documents/reports_publication/update-on-decline-of-capp-coal.pdf

Heimlich,RalphandW.Anderson.2001."Developmentattheurbanfringeandbeyond:impactsonagricultureandrural,"EconomicResearchService,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.AgriculturalEconomicReportNo.803,Washington,D.C.

Hill,Edward,TravisSt.Clair,HowardWial,HalWolman,PatAtkins,PamelaBlumenthal,SarahFicenec,AlecFriedhoff.2012.Economicshocksandregionaleconomicresilience.Buildingresilientregions:Urbanandregionalpolicyanditseffects4:193-274.

Hodge,Dan.2016.Appalachiancoalindustry,powergenerationandsupplychain.HodgeEconomicConsulting.PreparedforARC.March.https://www.arc.gov/assets/research_reports/CoalIndustryPowerGenerationandSupplyChainReport.pdf

Jacobsen,LindaA.,MarleneLee,andKelvinPollard.2013.HouseholdwealthandfinancialsecurityinAppalachia.PopulationReferenceBureau.PreparedforARC.November.https://www.arc.gov/assets/research_reports/HouseholdWealthandFinancialSecurityinAppalachia.pdf

LeSage,JamesP.2014."Whatregionalscientistsneedtoknowaboutspatialeconometrics.”TheReviewofRegionalStudies44(1):13-32.

LeSage,JamesP.andR.KelleyPace.2009.IntroductiontoSpatialEconometrics.CRCPress.

Leip,Dave.2008.DaveLeip'sAtlasofU.S.PresidentialElections.http://uselectionatlas.org/

Maher,KrisandDanFrosch.2015.CoalDownturnHammersBudgetsinWestVirginiaandWyoming.TheWallStreetJournal.Dec22.http://www.wsj.com/articles/coal-downturn-hammers-budgets-in-west-virginia-and-wyoming-1450822015

Montalvo,JoseG.,MartaReynal-Querol.2005.“Ethnicdiversityandeconomicdevelopment,”JournalofDevelopmenteconomics76(2):293-323.

NationalBureauofEconomicResearch.2017.USBusinessCycleExpansionsandContractions.http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

OfficeoftheGovernor.2015.GovernorTomblinAnnouncesReductioninFiscal2016Budget.October5.http://www.governor.wv.gov/media/pressreleases/2015/Pages/Governor-Tomblin-Announces-Reduction-in-Fiscal-2016-Budget.aspx

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Partridge,MarkD.,HeatherM.Stephens,andStephanJ.Goetz.2017.“TheEconomicStatusofRuralAmericaintheTrumpEra,”(inprogress).

Pender,JohnL.,BruceA.Weber,ThomasG.Johnson,andJ.MatthewFannin.2014.Ruralwealthcreation.RoutledgePubl.,U.K.

Pender,John,andRichardJ.Reeder.2011.ImpactsofRegionalApproachestoRuralDevelopment:InitialEvidenceontheDeltaRegionalAuthority.EconomicResearchService,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.EconomicResearchReportNo.119,Washington,D.C.

Pfaff,Alexander,JuanRobalino,RobertWalker,StevenAldrich,MarcellusCaldas,EustaquioReis,StephenPerzetal.2007."Roadinvestments,spatialspillovers,anddeforestationintheBrazilianAmazon,"JournalofRegionalScience47(1):109-123.

Rupasingha,Anil,StephanJ.Goetz,DavidFreshwater.2000.“Socialcapitalandeconomicgrowth:acounty-levelanalysis,”JournalofAgriculturalandAppliedEconomics32(3):565-572.

Rupasingha,Anil,andStephanJ.Goetz.2007.“SocialandPoliticalForcesasDeterminantsofPoverty,”JournalofSocio-Economics36(4):650-671.

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Silver,Josh,ArchanaPradhan,andSpencerM.Cowan.2013.AccesstoCapitalandCreditinAppalachiaandtheImpactoftheFinancialCrisisandRecessiononCommercialLendingandFinanceintheRegion.NationalCommunityReinvestmentCoalition.PreparedforARC.July.https://www.arc.gov/assets/research_reports/AccessToCapitalAndCreditInAppalachia-July2013.pdf

Stephens,HeatherM.andMarkD.Partridge.2011.“DoEntrepreneursEnhanceEconomicGrowthinLaggingRegions,”GrowthandChange42(4):431-465.

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______________________.2000b.Geography,TIGERproducts.https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/data/tiger.html

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______________________.2005b.PopulationandHousingUnitEstimates.https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html

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UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA).2007.FoodEnvironmentAtlas.https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-environment-atlas/

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APPENDIXA:FOCUSGROUPMATERIALS

StrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesproject–FocusGroupmeeting

April11,2017

MeetingSummaryFocusGroupoverviewandhighlights

A Focus Group meeting was held on April 11, 2017 at the LENOWISCO Planning District Commission office in Duffield, VA to review the draft findings of the Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachian Communities project. The agenda can be found at this link, and a list of participants may be found at the end of the summary. A series of initial interviews were held in January - March of 2017 to develop the draft best practices and strategies, in tangent with the economic analysis for the project [and another round of interviews have taken place since the Focus Group meeting on the draft findings as well]. The initial Interview Summary document is available at this link, and will be updated with another round of interviews that will be held after the Focus Group meeting. The interviews captured key questions on how communities can grow economic resilience in Appalachia and ideas for best practices, strategies and case studies. The initial findings for both the qualitative and quantitative analyses were shared during the Focus Group meeting to look at what is missing, to hear priorities as well as feedback from participants. The project team shared their initial findings thus far, asking Focus Group members for feedback, in a presentation that is available at this link. Key areas of feedback are bolded throughout the document, with the following emerging as key points of Focus Group feedback:

• Address equality and engaging underrepresented populations should be a core focus of the project.

• Identify more precisely the audience for the guidebook in order to direct focus and language.

• Focus more directly on issues including investing in education, technology, and public water/sewer infrastructure and their effects on economic resilience.

Projectbackground

The Strengthening Economic Resilience in Appalachian Communities project, sponsored by the Appalachian Regional Commission, is being conducted by Downstream Strategies, Penn State, Dialogue + Design, and other partners, will explore and document strategies and policies local leaders can use to enhance the future economic prospects of coal-impacted communities throughout the Appalachian Region. There are four key components to this research project: 1) develop a comprehensive, quantitative framework to explore economic resilience; 2) identify a

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series of best-practice strategies for strengthening local economic resilience; 3) conduct up to 10 in-depth case studies; and 4) produce a concise guidebook that interprets and integrates findings of the research, written specifically for local economic development practitioners.

PurposeandIntroductions

After participant introductions, Christine Gyovai of Dialogue + Design Associates reviewed the Focus Group purpose. Fritz Boettner of Downstream Strategies then introduced the project. Fritz noted that the project team has been employing both qualitative and quantitative methods to create an economic analysis, conduct a literature review and interviews, and create synthesis of factors for strategies, best practices and case studies around economic resilience, with the guidebook and report complete by September 2017. Questions and responses about the project overview included:

• A participant asked about the audiences for the guidebook. Would it be for officials? o Fritz replied that the intended audience would be a cross-section from officials

to economic development leaders to community organizers, but its intended audience is for economic development practitioners across Appalachia.

o Christine offered that the team has been asking for feedback on formats for the website from interviewees with ideas on how to make the guidebook as accessible and relevant as possible to economic development practitioners in Appalachia.

• Another participant asked what format will the guidebook take?

o Print and digital version, as well as linking to videos, tools, and resources, and a strong focus on storytelling have all been considered (as well as other tools).

• A participant asked if there would be enough time to review the potential case studies

during the Focus Group meeting, and asked about equity issues, noting that at the Appalachian Funders Network, they are trying to be sensitive to equity, race, and genders issues. She has been wondering if the team is looking at resilience as part of economic balance in measures.

o The team noted that the best practice 8 includes engaging the underengaged community members currently, but this is the type of feedback they are looking for around what needs to be reflected in this project.

DraftBestPracticesandStrategies

Christine then introduces the draft best practices and strategies, beginning with a quick look at the

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word cloud produced from the interview summary where words like: “people,” “communities,” “grow,” “work,” “possible,” and “stories” emerge as prominent elements of discussion. The draft eight best practices, at right, emerged from a combination of the literature review, the Advisory Team call, and interviews, and there may need to prioritize or develop guiding principles and further refine develop the best practices and strategies.

Stephan Goetz of Penn State explained the asterisks next to the best practices represent the overlap between qualitative research and their economic analysis, looking at what is measurable yet important. Before diving into strategies, Christine asked if Focus Group participants had any initial feedback from list of draft best practices (BP). Feedback included (with the list of Best Practices are listed first):

Best Practices for growing economic resilience in Appalachia 1. Cultivate entrepreneurs and develop resources for business start-ups 2. Identify and grow the assets in the community and region 3. Connect to markets regionally and develop value chains 4. Move multiple sectors forward for economic development 5. Grow youth engagement and next generation leadership 6. Build networks and foster collaboration 7. Create communities where people want to live 8. Engage the community over the long-term

o Surprise that no BPs address technology. BPs 1 and 7 could include technology, but

investing in information/technology infrastructure such as broadband, is not explicit. Christine replied that it didn’t emerge recently, but that the feedback was good. Three participants agreed that they were also surprised by the absence of technology in the BPs.

o Pre-K through higher education are the key to everything: health, economic development, opioid addiction. It needs to be front page, BP1. BP 5 hints at addressing these issues.

o Are the BPs for communities or for whom? This could tilt the balance of what’s on the list, which should be based on the audience. We should figure out the audience, and then prioritize accordingly.

o Entrepreneurship is a big term seen in different ways. There is national decline in the retail sector, and we might want to make a distinction between business start-ups and traditional retail. Traditional retail is consolidated, and we might need a deeper explanation of this. For example, it would be kind of crazy to encourage retail start-ups without looking at the market risk.

o One participant noted that when they work with traditional economic developers and officials, their definition of economic development does not include entrepreneurial development. Part of the job is making that a priority and communicating the value of entrepreneurship.

Christine then offered that the BPs and strategies don’t necessarily reflect the implicit challenges, but recognize that challenges are present. Christine then reviewed the draft best practice and affiliated list of draft strategies. Feedback included:

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• A participant noted that examples may need to be given for BP 3 around value chain to clarify its meaning as it currently seems more abstract than the others.

• Another strategy should be added under BP 4 around energy efficiency and renewables. • Under BP 7, consider looking at Jonesborough, TN which is well-known for storytelling.

Its proximity to Johnson City and its education challenges could make it useful to examine (noting that it is like Asheville but hidden).

• Megatrends include that technology is eliminating a lot of jobs in urban areas, but this technology also poses opportunities to attract people that are losing these jobs to the region.

• Under BP 8, one participant noted that we should look at where change comes from and use community listening as a key strategy and best practice.

EconomicAnalysisDiscussion

Stephan then led the presentation of economic analysis findings. They had examined data from 300 counties looking at what factors they could measure such as, ability to rebound in terms of employment, which is more important to policymakers than income. The economics team hadn’t looked at specific population’s ability to rebound (alluding to equality sensitivity), but they do control for these variables.

EconomicAnalysisFindings

• The literature has indicated three categories: demographic/mobility, economic/industry, and community/health.

• They found that communities with a lot of people ages 25-44 are more resilient. • College education seems to always be significant, that education IS key to everything. • Other indicators of resilience are workforce participation. • Poverty certainly makes it difficult to be resilient. • Proximity to firms does not increase resilience. • Ability to innovate has a strong positive effect on resilience. • Diversity of industry is important. • Some variables seem to cancel each other out such as effects of community colleges and

broadband access lose significance when dominated by college effects. • Child and elder care does not appear significant, but recreational opportunity is a

positive. • Social capital seems to be a surprising negative, which Stephan attributed to the higher

rate of retirees that might add social capital, but might not be active in the economic arena.

• Self-employment may be a proxy for entrepreneur; it turns out that self-employment only increases resilience at low levels, but diminishes the county’s resilience at higher levels. Stephan pointed back to the earlier point made about retail: we need to be careful about what they’re doing and competing with.

Stephan described how they control for variables, for example looking into the effect of age or college education into the economic analysis. They are looking at correlation not causation. For example, migration could be important before resilience is measured; looking at the structure

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of the economy before measuring resilience to claim causation. However, some are harder to separate, and are more associations than causations. One participant suggested that it is important to look at how the 2008 economic recovery was supported. It may have more to do with whether the community was well-positioned to receive recovery assistance. Bigger industries were the bigger winners. Stephan offered that not all counties experienced the downturn, but that this is a good point. In conclusion, Stephan shared a slide with the core findings. More resilient counties are:

• bigger, with more young workers and greater ethnic diversity, more in-migration and less out- migration, and more college-educated;

• more remote from metros, have less poverty, more labor force participation, innovation potential, more industry- but less knowledge diversity, less coal dependence; and

• less dependent on employment in community colleges, fewer health practitioners, more active in terms of direct farm sales.

He then shared some of the subtler findings:

• Self-employment matters but at a diminishing rate; • Self-employment effect stronger in places with more population, or that are more

remote; • Social capital has stronger positive effects if the 25-40 year old cohort is smaller; • Federal funding is more effective when there are fewer in-commuters; and • Recreational opportunities matter when the density of existing business is lower.

Alan Collins then discussed the econometric analysis that his team has been working on as part of the economic analysis. Their team has looking at regional impacts and resilience where they found that some variables have a larger impact than others, and these will be part of the economic analysis.

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Case Studies and Focus Group feedback The project team then introduced online mapping tool that included the quantitative variables and helped Focus Group participants identify possible case studies. The team then discussed the process of how case studies are being selected. 113 locations have been explored as possible case study locations that have emerged from both the qualitative and quantitative analyses. The team noted that ARC has asked that they look outside of Appalachia as well as in the region, and at various scales, noting that data is most easily accessible at the county-level. After reviewing map with possible case study locations, the project team asked Focus Group participants to consider two primary questions:

• What are we missing? • What arises as a priority?

Closing questions and comments

• One participant noted that said she was interested in the comment about the regression analysis related to self-employment, and wanted to look at how we could relate that back to value-chain strategies. In Ohio they worked with auto suppliers, and notice that as they take on more employees, they become more tied into the value chain, which can affect them negatively. She was surprised by the potential effect of retirees affecting social capital. Maybe we could look at more positive stories such as youth in West Virginia. She gave the example of a youth-oriented Rotary Club that’s young and active, and an important anchor in Athens, OH. She also suggested that we look more specifically at innovation since economic resilience is such a broad term to expand and clarify it, further noting that recreation opportunities may improve the quality of life, attract younger people, but also can come with low wages. She wants to understand these wages more, and advocated that wages are an indicator of economic resilience. In Athens, OH, companies have focused on technology (from GED to PhD levels).

• Another participant noted that capital/angel investment is important for small businesses, but is not flowing to rural regions. How is this accounted for in the analysis (if it is accounted for)?

• Another Focus Group member noted that more time for the Focus Group meeting would be helpful as 1 ½ hours wasn’t enough time to get into depth or discuss many of the points in depth. The project team welcomed comments by phone or email after the Focus Group meeting as well. There were also concerns about the interviewees who were all white, and additional suggestions for interviewees were made.

• A Focus Group participant noted that all these solutions are exciting, and could help some members of the community but could create other problems. How do we create solutions without creating more problems?

• Another participant would like to see more women in the workforce. There are huge efforts at putting coalminers back into the workforce that have largely floundered. We should be looking at more opportunities for younger people and women.

• A Focus Group member added that we need to be making a connection between Best Practices 1, 3, and 4 connecting markets with opportunities for entrepreneurs.

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After the closing feedback from Focus Group participants, the in-person participants continued to meet for a brief discussion around the suggestions for next steps. Feedback included:

• One participant noted that we might want to see what is already being done. Two participants have worked on a grant for the National Public Health Institute where they recently concluded seven Focus Groups in Virginia and Tennessee which were data-rich and focused on multi-sectors, gathering a lot of background on economic development policy. They were funded again and are setting up a population health network focusing on diabetes, bringing economic developers to the table and using community health rankings as a competitive incentive.

• Another attendee added that they could help make connections with targeting underrepresented folks to broaden perspective if helpful.

• Another participant noted that having more diverse interviewees would be important to ensure that a broad range of knowledge is represented. Christine responded, “Will the digital engagement help? (some nods), pointing to the need to expand the engagement period of the project.

• A participant suggested Erik Pages as an interviewee, who Christine noted has been interviewed.

• One participant commented that the research team had sent out the Best Practices before the Focus Group; we didn’t need to necessarily go over them. The economic material was useful to discuss. She added that public water and sewer are significant factors in the ability to attract business, and she would have loved to dig into people’s questions more. She wanted to see more about the map and case studies. She said that she is glad we’re pulling ideas outside the region, but is hoping case studies have factors that are relatable. Chattanooga has different considerations from Charleston, WV, for example.

• Another attendee agreed with the infrastructure piece and the community health column, but suggested that we also look at multimodal transportation infrastructure. Also Best Practice #7 highlights a possible case study in Cleveland, VA vs OH and TN? We might want to measure out-migrations and be ready to integrate with 2020 Census.

• A participant commented that people don’t want to talk about funding for public education (in many places, it has dropped off the map), but we have no alternative. If we decide to do more meetings, she would be happy to host a meeting in a central location. Christine asks if it would be best for in-person format, with the response being that people will pour their heart out if they know it’s being used for good.

• Another attendee agreed that people will travel and suggested including a lunch. After the discussion concluded, the Focus Group meeting ended and the group was invited to send additional feedback by email or phone, with additional opportunities for engagement forthcoming.

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FocusGroupParticipants

Jimmie Adkins, LENOWISCO PDC Philippa Belsches, Just Transition Fund Shannon Blevins, UVa-Wise Office of Economic Development Dee Davis, Center for Rural Strategies Eric Dixon, Appalachian Citizens Law Center Peter Hille, MACED Ginny Kidwell, Tennessee Institute of Public Health Jennifer Simon, Ohio University Ada Smith, Appalshop Kent Spellman, Rails to Trails Conservancy ProjectTeamParticipants

Christine Gyovai, facilitator, Dialogue + Design Associates Emily Carlson, Dialogue + Design Associates Evan Fedorko, Downstream Strategies Fritz Boettner, Downstream Strategies Stephan Goetz, PSU Regional Center for Rural Development Allan Collins, WVU Economics

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APPENDIXB:INTERVIEWSUMMARY

InterviewSummaryStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunities

June20,2017(revisedfromApril7thversion) OverviewInitialinterviewsfortheStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesproject,sponsoredbytheAppalachianRegionalCommission,wereheldbetweenJanuary–March2017andconductedbyChristineGyovaiofDialogue+DesignAssociates.AFocusGroupmeetingwasheldinAprilof2017tosolicitfeedbackonthedraftbestpracticesandstrategies,andthenasecondroundofinterviewswereheldinAprilandMayof2017togatheradditionalfeedbackandtocontinuetorefinetheinitialbestpracticesandstrategiesbasedonFocusGroupfeedback.Finally,asurveywassharedinlateMay–earlyJuneof2017withpractitionersacrossAppalachiatoprioritizethedraftbestpracticesandstrategiesandsolicitnewideas,with151responsesacrossAppalachia.Theideasfromtheinterviewsareincludedbelowunderthethemes:BestPracticesandRelatedStrategies,Tools,Resources,PointsofInspiration,Challenges,GuidebookFormatIdeas,ideasofotherstoreachoutto,andpotentialcasestudylocations.Intervieweesandinterviewquestionsarelistedattheendofthedocument.TheInterviewSummarydocumentservedasafoundationforrefiningtheBestPracticesandStrategieswithProjectTeam,AdvisoryTeam,andFocusGroupparticipantfeedbackoverthecourseoftheEconomicResilienceproject.BestPracticesforgrowingeconomicresilienceinAppalachia

1. Investineducation,technology,infrastructureandbroadband2. Engagethecommunityoverthelong-term3. Createcommunitieswherepeoplewanttolive4. Growyouthengagementandnextgenerationleadership5. Identifyandgrowtheassetsinthecommunityandregion6. Buildnetworksandfostercollaboration7. Movemultiplesectorsforwardforeconomicdevelopmentandgrowvalue

chains8. Cultivateentrepreneursanddevelopresourcesforbusinessstart-ups

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BestpracticesandstrategiesforgrowingeconomicresilienceinAppalachia-Prioritizedstrategiesarelistedundereachbestpractice

1. Investineducation,technology,infrastructureandbroadband

A. DevelopbroadbandaccessibilitythroughoutAppalachia.o Developtrainingopportunitiesforcommunitiesandorganizationson

communications,communityoutreach,andhowtoeffectivelyusetheinternetandsocialmedia.

o Fosterbroadbanddevelopmentasakeycomponentforbuildingremotework(telecommuting)possibilities,existingbusinessexpansion,andnewbusinesslocation.

B. Investininfrastructureincludingpublicwater,publicsewer,energyaccessibility,andtransportation--includingmulti-modaltransportation.

o CreaterenewableenergyprojectsthroughoutAppalachiaasmanybusinesseshavearenewableenergyrequirementtolocateinanarea.

o Developpublicandprivatepartnershipstocreateneededinfrastructure.o Considerproximitytohighways,markets,transportationoptions,and

airportswhichareallstrongfactorsindeterminingthecompetitiveadvantageofanareafornewbuildlocationorexistingbusinessexpansion.

o ExpandpublicsewerthroughoutAppalachiausinginnovativetechnologieswhereneeded.

C. Fostereducationalopportunitiesfrompreschoolthroughpost-secondaryforawiderangeofcommunitymembers.

o Groweducationalattainmenttogrowcommunityqualityoflife,entrepreneurshipopportunitiesandattracthigh-levelemploymentpossibilities.

o Developfreepublicvocationalandhighereducationclassestoprepareandtrainworkersforemploymentandforentrepreneurshippossibilities.

o Developbothgeneralandspecializededucationalofferingsasawaytogrowcommunityandeconomicresilience,togrowneededskillsetsforspecificsectors,andfordevelopingnewbusinessopportunitiesandentrepreneurs.

D. Develop“learnandearn”modelsofworkforcetrainingwhereworkforcetrainingandacademicclassesarebothofferedaroundaspecifictopicsuchaslocalfoodorrenewableenergy.

E. Growopportunitiesaroundtechnologyinmultiplesectors.

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2. Engagethecommunityoverthelong-termA. Engageunder-engagedcommunitymembers--thoseaffectedbydecisionsneedto

bepartofthesolution.B. Createongoingengaging,safespacesforthecommunitytogatheracrosssectors

andforallcommunitymemberstofeelvalued,welcomed,andheard.o Welcomenewcomerstocommunities,orreturningcommunitymembers,by

openingupleadershipcirclesandcreatingcommunitiesthatwillattractthem.

C. Shareideas,challengesandsuccesseswithconsistentcommunicationwiththebroadercommunity.

o Tellstoriesaboutothercommunitiesthathavebuilttheirresilience.• Developopportunitiesforpeoplewithincommunitiestoidentifyboththeproblem

andsolutiontocommunitychallengesandopportunities.Ideasthatemergefromwithinthecommunityshouldbeprioritizedforgrowingeconomicresilience.

D. Cultivateleadershipandtrustforlong-termeffortsandsuccess.Createthespacewhereleadershipcancomeforwardandflourishtocreatechangetogetherasacommunity.

o Connectwithcommunity“sparkplugsandbridgemakers”inthecommunitytosustainleadership,growth,andmomentum.

o Fostercreativelong-rangeplanning,strategicplanningandopportunitiestoengagewithelectedofficialsandinpolicycreation.

E. Developaconsistentforumforcommunityengagementaroundaspecificfocuswithalong-termfacilitatororconvener.

o Useinnovativewaystoengagethecommunity,includingthroughmedia,outreach,knockingondoors,sharingideas,recognizingparticipantsfortheircontributions,andmakemeetingsfun.

ADDITIONALIDEAS/QUOTES:

a. Shareideas,challengesandsuccesswithconsistentcommunicationwiththebroadercommunity,andprovideregularforumsforengagement.

o “Celebratewhatispositive!Therearesomanyreasonsforcelebration.”o “Weneedtoconsiderindividualandcollectiveidentity.Iffolks

understandwheretheycomefromandwhattheircommunityisandwhattheirroleiswiththecommunity,theassets,andtheiruniqueness–thisisveryimportantincreatingsustainableeconomicgrowth.”

o “Weneedtotellacompellingnarrativesuccinctly,repeatedly,throughdirectstoriesandfacts,andtellitagainandagaintochangethatnarrativeandimplementbetterpolicies.”

b. Developanongoingplaceforhavingcommunityconversationsaroundafocus.

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o “Asacommunity–wemustcreatethehabitofdialogueanddeliberationandthenstructuresforaction.”

o “Stuffonlyworkswhencitizenscometogethertomakechange–includeeveryone.”

c. Listenandlearnfromcommunitymemberswherethereareopportunitiesandchallenges,andgrowideasthatcanbedevelopedbythecommunity.

o Developastrongsenseofwhoacommunityistocreateaneconomicplanthatwillworkoverthelong-term.

o “Ideasneedtocomeoutofthepeoplethemselvesortheywon’tbesustained.”

o “Weneedtolistenandtohearwhatispossiblefromfolksincommunitiesaboutwhattheyseeandexperience.”

o Communityenergyandexcitementneedstobepresenttostarttomakechange,andtostaypositiveandoptimisticforthelongroadofcommunitytransformation.

o Practitionersneedto“getonthebalcony”toseethebigpictureviewtomakeconnectionswithotherpeopleandpartners,aswellasacrossideasandprojectstoadvancethework.

3. CreatecommunitieswherepeoplewanttoliveA. Growcommunityhealthandwellness.Focusoncreatingahighqualityoflifewith

strongcommunityhealthandwellnesswhicharestrongdriversfornewbusinesslocationandfornewresidentstomovetocommunities.

o Createamenities,programs,andopportunitiesforallcommunitymembers,includingchildcare,eldercare,women,single-parenthouseholds,andvulnerablecommunitymemberstoensurethatbasicneedsaremet.

o Determinebarriersandopportunitiesforcommunitymemberstoaccesssocialservices,includingwaystoaddressaddiction.

o Addresssystemicformsofpovertybyreachingouttopeoplewheretheyareanduseagrassrootsapproachtogroweconomicresilienceincommunities.

B. Cultivateastrongsenseofplaceandprideinplacethroughstorytelling,arts,andculturalheritageopportunities,andvaluethemasbuildingblocksforaneweconomyinAppalachia.

o Tellstories,sharestories,includingnew,positivestories.o Shareinformationforpeerlearningamongcommunitymembersand

leaders,includingthroughin-persongatherings,usingaudioandvideotosharestories,andtoidentifypointsofcontacttolearnmoreaboutspecificstories,peopleandplaces.

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C. Welcomenewanddiversepeopleintocommunities.Encouragenewresidents,includingtelecommuters,youngfamilies,andimmigrants.

o Useanintentionalapproachtoaddresspopulationdeclineincommunities.D. Growanchorinstitutions,businesses,andopportunitiesthatgrowthriving

communities.o Developandgrowcolleges,universities,hospitals,aswellaselderandyouth

co-careopportunities.o Develop“thirdspaces”–neutralspaceswherecommunitymemberscan

cometogetheroutsideofhomeandwork(suchascoffeeshops,co-workingspaces,andchurches.)

o Examinelandownership,includingabsenteelandowners,andhowitimpactscommunitiesandthebroaderregion.

o Promotelocalinvestingviacommunityfoundationsandseedfundingforlocalideas.


a. Createhighqualitycommunitieswithamenitiesforallcommunitymembers.o Thisshouldinclude“creatingcommunitieswithbroadbandandcoffeeshops”

and“basicinfrastructure,likesewerlines,broadband,decenthousing,andacommunitycenter.”

o “Weneedhonestcommunicationsystemsthatworkandconnectpeopletotheworld.”

o “Weneedtofocusonthecreativeeconomy–weneedtocreateplaceswherepeoplewanttoraisetheirkidsandretire.RuralcommunitieslikeAppalachiancangetafreshlook,andwhatisimportantisthatwehaveattractivecommunitieswithhighamenitiesthatpeoplemakechoicestocomelivehere--folkswhoarejobcreators.Thatgivesusachipinthegame.“

b. Valuearts,culture,andheritageandusethemasbuildingblocksforaneweconomyinAppalachia.

o “Culture,environment,ourhistory–allofasudden,thosethingswethoughtwereholdingbacktheeconomyturnedouttobewhatislefttobuildafuturefrom.”

4. GrowyouthengagementandnextgenerationleadershipA. Identify,mentor,andgrowyoungleadersforthenextgeneration.

o Developmentoring,learningopportunities,ideaexchangesandprogramstogrowskillsandtolearnaboutentrepreneurship(likeAppalachianFellowshipProgram,withelectedleaders,andacrossgenerations).

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o Encourageyouthandprovideopportunitiesforthemtobeinpositionsofresponsibility.

o Connecttoschoolsandworkwithteachers,students,andparentsinmultipleways.

B. Keepsmart,youngpeopleincommunities,andbringsmart,youngpeoplefromoutsideofcommunitiesin.

C. Engageyouthinarts,cultureandcommunity-buildingopportunities.D. Welcomenewideas,boldvisions,andunlikelypartnerships.E. Developprogramsbyyouth,foryouth.F. Buildthecapacityoflocalleaderstobuildtheeconomy,andgrowandengagelocal,

diverseleadershipacrossacommunity.o Growpeer-to-peerlearningnetworks,coachingopportunitiesandleadership

developmentopportunitiestobuildcapacityoflocalleaders.o Fosteropportunitiesforyoungleaderstoengagewithelectedofficialsin

policycreation,tobecomeelectedofficials,aswellastoengagewithcommunity-basedinitiatives.

G. Welcomeyoungpeopleincommunities–ensurethatyouthfeelwelcome.

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ADDITIONALIDEAS/QUOTES:a. Developprogramsbyyouth,foryouth.b. AdvanceprogramssuchastheAppalachianFellowshipprogramforyoung

leaderstogrowskills,seewhatishappeningregionally,andtolearnaboutbestpracticesandinnovationthroughouttheregion.

c. Engageyouthinarts,cultureandcommunitybuildingopportunities.o Createcommunity,economic,andculturalevents,projects,andvenuesthat

welcomeandfacilitateparticipationfromallagesd. Identify,mentor,andgrowyoungleadersforthenextgeneration.

o “Whenlookaroundthestate[ofWV]attheleadershipindifferentNGOs,thereareincredibleyoungpeopledoingamazingworkaroundcommunitydevelopment.Weneedtosupportthem.Weneedtobepassingthebatontoremarkableyoungleadersandbearoundtomentorthem.”(http://generationwv.org/)”

e. Welcomeyoungpeopleincommunities–ensurethatyouthfeelwelcome.f. Keepsmart,youngpeopleincommunities,andbringsmart,youngpeoplefrom

outsideofcommunitiesintothem.g. Welcomenewideas,boldvisions,andunlikelypartnerships.

o Cultivateout-of-the-boxthinkingandprogramopportunitiessuchasa“WhyNotAppalachia”socialmediacampaigntogeneratenew,bold,andcrazyideas.

o Welcomenewthinkingandideasfromnewpeople;bewillingtoexperiment.

h. Developmentoringandlearningopportunitytocross-pollinateideasandgrowskills.

i. Createrolemodelsandmentoringopportunitiesforyouthtolearnaboutentrepreneurship.

j. Connecttoschoolsandworkwithteachers,students,parentsinavarietyofprogramsandpartnerships.

5. IdentifyandgrowtheassetsinthecommunityandregionA. Tellthestoriesofthecommunity,especiallypositivestories,tochangethe

narrative.o Createintergenerationallearningexchangesbetweeneldersandyouth,

includinggatheringoralhistories,aswellaslearningopportunitiesbetweentownsandbetweenpractitioners.

B. Fosterinterconnectionbetweenruralandurbanareas,inbroaderregionsaroundresources,aswellasfood,recreation,andenergysupplyconnections.

C. Identifyandpromoteassetswithintheregionandcommunitythroughpartnerships.

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o Focusonintegratingartsandcreativeplacemaking,intocommunityandeconomicdevelopmenteffortsacrossthecommunity.

D. Shareresourcesacrosstheregionsuchasmarketingresourcesorresearchintoregionaltrends.

E. Linkmultipledestinationsandactivitiestocreatemorelocalbusinessopportunitiesandencouragelongervisits.

o Promotelivingwagejobs,especiallythosethatarerelatedtothetourismindustry.

o Retainthevibrancyanduniquenessofcommunities–don’tallowtheeffectsoftourismtosignificantlyalterlocalcommunitycharacterorlandscapes.

F. Buildcommunity-basedphilanthropybytappingcommunitywealthsuchasacommunityfoundationsothatcommunitiescancaptureandinvestineconomicdevelopmentlocally.


a. “Positivethingshappenwhencommunitiesgetthemessagethatnooneisgoingtocomeinandcreateastrongereconomyforthem--changeisgoingtohappenfromwithinthecommunity.Whencommunitiessay,“Weneedtofigurethatout.Weneedtoinvestinourselvesandleadership,thenwearegoingtofigureoutwhatdrivesthiseconomy”,andthenwhenpeoplewillgooutandseewhotheentrepreneursareintheircommunitiesandtheyhavehonestconversationsaboutwhatwouldittaketogrowbusinesses,recognizingthatthisistheirjobandresponsibility–-thatcreatestheBIGGESTCHANGE.”

b. Identifyandpromoteassetswithintheregionandcommunitythroughcollaborativepartnerships.

o Asacommunity,identifyandunderstandtheassetsthatexist,whatismissing,andthenfindwaystobuildontheassetsthatexistandbuildtheonesthatdon’tyetexist.

o Identifyculturalassociationsacrosstheregion,asboththeaudienceandthemarket.

c. Identifyanddevelopregionalpromotionaroundregionaltopicsandassets.o “Appalachianheritageisimportantandshouldbeleveraged.“

d. Tellthestoriesofthecommunity,especiallypositivestories,tochangethenarrative.

o “Gotocommunitiesthataresucceeding–weneedacultureofbeingimaginative.Weneedsparkplugsthatwillkeeptryingnewideas.”

o ‘Testtheremediesthatotherpeopleoffertoseeifmakessensetothem.Peopleknowtheirowncommunitiesandwhatwillwork.Weneedtobeusingahostofstrategies.Weneedtobewillingtotakeeverythingwelearn,testassumptions,takediverseapproaches,andcreateavisionthatothers

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cansee.Weneedtopaintapicturethatglowsinthedarksothatpeoplecanseeit.Peoplewillrallytoanideathatisculturallyappropriate;ifitmakessense,ifitinspiresthem,theywillhelp.Youhavetohaveacommunityshaman.”

e. Determinehowruralandurbanareas,andbroaderregions,areinterconnectedespeciallyaroundresourcesandsupplyconnectionsaroundfood,recreation,andenergy.

6. BuildnetworksandfostercollaborationA. Useasystemsapproachtodevelopasharedunderstanding,community

opportunities,andneedstogrowsectors,developassets,andfosterregionalcollaborationwithlong-termvisionandeffort.

o Engageeconomistsattheregionalscaletoshareknowledgeandbestpractices.

B. Cultivategrassrootseffortsandcommunityleadership,andeffectivecommunicationusingdifferenttools.

o Determinetherightlevelofpartnershipneededforeffectiveengagement.C. Developnetworksofcommunities,bothlocalandregional,workingtowardsa

sharedunderstandingoftheopportunities,gaps,strengths,anduniqueelementsofeachcommunity.

o Fosteropportunitiesforgenerationalleadership(bothintermsofstaffandorganizations)togrowtheworkinthefutureandadapttochangingneedsandopportunitiesofaninitiative.

o DevelopstructuredMOU’sbetweenpartnerorganizations,whichmayresultinopportunitiesforgreaterfunding.

D. Identifyandgrowadedicatedlong-termentityoranchororganization(s)to:o Buildcapacity,moveideasforward,provideaconsistentforumfor

collaboration,developmultiplefundingstreams,andhelpimplementideas.o Identifywaysforfundersandpractitionerstoworktogetheraspartnersto

shiftthepowerstructure.E. Workacrosssilosandsectors;encourageentrepreneurialspiritandmindsetsfor

projectgrowthanddevelopment.F. Developlong-termstaffingcapacitytomoveideasforwardandfostereconomic

transformation.o Createatrainingprogramandacohortofpractitionersonhowtoaccelerate

thebuildingofaneconomicresiliencemodelfromthebottom–up.

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ADDITIONALIDEAS/QUOTES:Ask:Whatisyournetwork?Ask:Whataretheanchorinstitutionsinyourcommunityandregion?a. Identifyandgrowadedicatedentityoranchororganizationto:buildcapacity;move

ideasforward;provideaconsistentforumforcollaboration;developmultiplefundingstreams;andhelpimplementideas.Thismightincludeanacademicinstitution,anon-profitorganization,aconsensus-buildinggroup,oranotherentity.

o “Anchorinstitutionsallowvoicestocometogethertospeakforsomethinggreaterthanthemselves.”

o “Thereismoreknowledge,lessduplication,moreefficiencywhenweworktogetherwithamoreeffectiveuseofresources–wegetdeeperimpactandatabroader

b. Developfundingopportunitiesandrevenuesourcescollaborativelybasedonregionalopportunitiesandneedsfromavarietyofsources.

c. Developnetworksofcommunitiesworkingtogether.o “Thefuturewillbeinpartnerships.”

d. Fostereffectivecommunicationusingdifferenttools.o Developintergovernmentalcooperativeagreementsforcountiesand

agenciestocollaboratetogetherinongoingforumstofostergreatercollaboration.

e. Useasystemsapproachtogrowsectors,developassets,andfosterregionalcollaborationnoting,thatlong-termvisionandeffortareneededtogrowresilienceandsustainability.

7. MovemultiplesectorsforwardforeconomicdevelopmentandgrowvaluechainsA. Connectmultipleopportunitiestogrowavaluechainaroundwhatisbeingcreated

locally.o Useasystemsapproachtodevelopvaluechains;lookacrossaregionto

determinewhatleverscangroweconomicresilience.o Developabroaderrecognitionoftheinterdependencebetweenurbanand

ruralareas.Createadeeperrecognitionofthevalueofrural.B. Buildgrassrootssupportforeconomicdiversification,andcollaboratewithpublic

andprivatesectors.o Engagebothnon-profitorganizationinvolvementaswellasmarket-

connectedenterprises.

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o Developmodelsthatengagemorethanonedisciplinethatcanyieldmultipleresults

C. Promisingsectorsinclude:o Advancedmanufacturing,healthcare,renewableenergy,outdoorrecreation,

localfoodsystemsandagriculture,technologyandotherso Findwaystofocusonideasthatcomefromwithinthecommunityaround

sector-basedeconomicgrowth(notideasthatareexternallyimposedoncommunities).

o Developmeanstonotcreateonlyservice-sectorworkthroughtourism.D. Connecttoregionalmarketsforsalesofproductsandservices.

o Growandconnectwiththebroaderregion'seconomyandtomarketopportunitiesinregionalurbancenters.

o Examinewhatfinancialandtaxincentivescanbemadeavailabletoencouragebusinessestolocateinaparticulararea,expandprogramsandresources(suchasloansandgrants)toexpandexistingbusinesses,andwaystoconnectwithregionalmarketingopportunitiestopromotelocalitiesandregions.

E. Developacoordinatedstrategyforeconomicgrowth.F. Learnhowothercommunitiesandregionsbuilteconomicgrowthandshareideas.


a. Buildgrassrootssupportforeconomicdiversificationandcollaboratewithpublicandprivatesectors.

o “Buildafoundationonidentifyingassets,focusingoncertainsectors,andthenmakeinvestmentsincertainareas…Havinggovernmentagenciesatthetableisimportanttocodifycollaborativeprocesses.Gettingpoliticalandpolicysupportforinvestmentshasbeencrucial[inoursuccess].“

b. Learnhowothercommunitiesandregionsbuilteconomicgrowthandshareideas.

c. Connectmultipleopportunitiestogrowavaluechainaroundwhatisbeingcreatedlocally.

d. Growandconnectwiththebroaderregion'seconomy.e. Useasystemsapproachtodevelopvaluechains;lookacrossaregionto

determinewhattheleversaretogroweconomicresilience.a. “Weneedtousesystemsthinkingtogeneratemultipleformsofwealth

andwealthcreation.”f. Connecttomarketopportunitiesinregionalurbancenters.g. Developabroaderrecognitionoftheinterdependencebetweenurbanandrural

areas.Createadeeperrecognitionofthevalueofrural.

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h. “Storytelling,whichmanyAppalachianpeopledowell,needstobepartofourproductsandservices.Storytellingneedstoinfiltrateallsmallbusinessmessaging.“

8. Cultivateentrepreneursanddevelopresourcesforbusinessstart-ups

A. Createentrepreneurialecosystemswithlocally–centeredmarkets.o Conductorganizingwithinacommunitytothinkabouteconomic

developmentandwhatopportunitiesarethere;talktoentrepreneursaroundwhatopportunitiesareemerging.

B. Developentrepreneurresources,businessplancompetitions,andopportunitiestogrowlocalbusinessesandaccesscapital.

o IdentifyCDFIs(CommunityDevelopmentFinancialInstitutions)withinAppalachiathatcouldbestrongresourcesforentrepreneursorcommunitygroups.

o Developstatewideprogramstopromotethegrowthofnewindustrieswithinstates.

o Buildthecapacityofcommunitiesforentrepreneur-focusedeconomicdevelopmentthroughdevelopingmulti-yearleadershipteams,fosteringleadershipdevelopment,training,andcoachingmentors,buildingonideasandassetsthatareidentifiedthatarisefromwithinthecommunity.

o Connecttotheassetsofacommunityaroundtohowtotransitionbusinessestoanewgeneration.

C. Connectwithschools,collegesanduniversitiesfortraining,mentoring,andresearchopportunities.

D. Advanceopportunitiesforworkforcetraininginspecificsectorsandindustriesincludingforregionalcontextanddisplacedworkers.

E. Usesocialenterpriseresourcesandtoolstodevelopcommunity-basedbusinesses.o Cultivatesuccessfulbusinessaccelerators,co-workingspaces,andmaker

spaces.F. Developopportunitiesforremoteworkandtelecommuting.

ADDITIONALIDEAS/QUOTES:Ask:Whoaretheentrepreneursinyourarea?Ask:Whatresourcesareavailableforentrepreneursandbusinessstart-ups?a. Advanceopportunitiesforworkforcetraininginavarietyofspecificsectorsand

industries.Connecttoregionalopportunitiesandneeds,anddevelopprogramsandpossibilitiesspecifictodisplacedworkers’skillsetsandopportunities.

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o Re-envisionthestructureoffarmer’smarketstoallowformorediversityofgoodstobesold.Createopportunitiestoenablelow-incomeparticipation.

b. NotethatgrowingentrepreneursandsmallbusinessestakestimeinAppalachia–itisadifferentmindsetthanwhatmanycommunitymembersareusedto.

o “Tellstoriesandchangethenarrative.”c. Developopportunitiesforsmallbusinessownerstoteachandmentorstudentsin

highschoolsandcollegestodevelopskillsandleadership.o Forexample,inthePAWildseffort,theyarecreatingopportunitiesfor

outfitterstoteachinhighschoolsduringtheoff-season.d. Developmultiplewaysforsmallbusinessestoaccesscapital.

GENERALTOOLSANDRESOURCES:

• OrtonFamilyFoundation–HeartandSoulcommunities• MainStreetCommunitiesandMainStreetresources• Connectwithnon-profitorganizationleadershipandinitiatives• Tupelo–5levelPyramidfromVaughnGrishamaroundcommunityself-

actualization• WaterbarrelmodelfromBrushyForkaroundacommunity’seconomy• JustTransitionnetworkandmodel• MACEDETEKModel(graphic)• PoliciesareimportantincludingtheRECLAIMAct• Fundingisimportant–POWERfundinghasbeenkeytofosterlocalandregional

collaboration• Wealthworks.org(mentionedbyseveralpeople;alsounderresources)• VISTAprogram“canbetransformative”• VEDPguidebook:

http://www.yesvirginia.org/Content/pdf/guides/Guidebook%20for%20Elected%20Officials%202017-2018.pdf

• AppalachianFellowshipprogramResources

• CDBG(CommunityDevelopmentBlockGrant)andEDA(EconomicDevelopmentAdministration)funding

• CenterforRuralEntrepreneurship• AppalachianFundersNetworkandinvestmentpotentialinAppalachia• EnergizingEntrepreneursisagreatbook• HeartlandCenterinNebraska• BALLE• OpenSpaceTechnology

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• DemocracyCollaborativeshttp://democracycollaborative.org/• RonEller,JohnStephenson,VaughnGrishamhavealldonegreatworkaround

buildingcommunityresilience.o RonEller-https://history.as.uky.edu/users/ellero JohnStephenson-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Stephensono VaughnGrisham-https://www.kettering.org/catalog/product/tupelo-

evolution-communityandhttps://assets.aspeninstitute.org/content/uploads/files/content/docs/pubs/Tupelo_0.pdf

• ResilienceInstitutesfromtheRockefellerFoundation• JustTransitionFund• ProjectforPublicSpaces• ASPENInstitute• AssociationforEnterpriseOpportunity• CentralAppalachianNetwork• AllianceforAppalachia,includingtheirnewtoolkitforeconomictransition

opportunitiesaroundpost-minedlands• CommunityEconomicDevelopmentNetworkofeasternTN• BarbaraWycoffsharedthreepossiblecasestudyprofilesthatwearewelcometo

use• Wealthworks.org

o https://www.wealthworks.org/economic-development-resources/wealthworks-videos

• POWERfundingandtheresultingpartnershipsthathavebeendeveloped(eveninunsuccessfulgrantapplications)

• Kellogg’sRuralPeopleandRuralPolicywork• EPACompetitiveAdvantagebrief(similartothiswork):

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-05/documents/competitive_advantage_051215_508_final.pdf

• BrushyForkcasestudieso VideofromtheBrushyForkcommunityleadershipcurriculumthatincludes

afewofthesparkplugs:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ1B7HvTT0E• AceNetresources:

o http://acenetworks.org/community/o http://acenetworks.org/acenet-consulting/case-studies/

• DawnofSystemsLeadership–https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_dawn_of_system_leadership

• https://tgkvf.org/presidents-message-dr-michelle-foster-2016/

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• Temali, M. (2004).The community economic development handbook: Strategies and tools to revitalize your neighborhood. St. Paul, MN: Amherst H. Wilder Foundation

• TOOL:http://whatsnextwv.org/• http://www.yesmagazine.org/commonomics/these-young-people-are-pioneering-

a-post-coal-economy-in-appalachia• WVHubmodelforbuildingcapacityincommunities

o WVCommunityBuildingToolkitfromtheWVHubo HubNewsFeedofsuccessfulstoriesfromtheregion(possiblecasestudy

resource)o Hubapalooza–face-to-face,place-basedlearningexchange

• TheCenterforRuralEntrepreneurshipisanationalNGO.https://www.energizingentrepreneurs.org/Therearemanytools,videosandexamplesontheirwebsite.

Pointsofinspiration

• BenhamschoolinandLynchinKentuckyanditscreationasacommunityspace• FARMACY-givingprescriptionsforfoodinpartnershipwithfarmer’smarket.

http://cfaky.org/what-we-do/appal-tree/farmacy-program/• ConnectKY–successfulexampleofregionalbroadbanddevelopment• NorrisBuiltFabricationinNorton,Virginia• WesternFrontandtheInnatWiseinSWVA• NorthropGrummanandCGIbusinessesinSWVA• BereaTourismBusinessAccelerator• Learningwhattheyoungergenerationisinterestedinisapointofinspirationof

whatkindsofbusinessestorecruitanddevelop.• Successstoriesofentrepreneursinthearea.• BrenSmith• ClearforkCommunityInstitute• TheNextinSWVA• FoundationforAppalachianKentucky–CommunityFoundation• HigherGroundTheatreinEasternKentucky• WestVirginiaHiveAccelerator(http://nrgrda.org/our-team/joseph-brouse/)• OpportunitySWVAandtheClinchRiverValleyInitiative• CrookedRoad• MountainTechMedia• LostCreekFarminWV• NextGenerationandArtoftheRural• DilapidatedhousingprojectinWV(WVHubisworkingonthis)

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• ThetownofGilbertinMingoCounty,WVhasdoneanexcellentjobofbuildingsmallbusinessopportunitiesaroundtrailstourism,andthoseopportunitiesweremadepossiblebythelocaltowngovernment’sembracingthepositivechangesbroughtaboutbytheTrails

• AppalachianConferenceonSocialEnterprisewithforthcomingfacilitator’sguideandvideo.

• AppalachianHarvestasamodelofanNGO(AppalachianSustainableDevelopmentproject)thatistakingadvantageofmarketforcesandthepositiveelementsofbeinganNGO.Theyhavebeenworkingfor15yearsandtheydrew$2.5Minthelastyear,mostofwhichhasgonebacktofarmers.

• WilliamsonWVHealthandWellnessCenter–successfullyfosteredsmallbusinessdevelopmentthathasbeenanoutgrowtharoundgrowingthelocalfoodinvolvement,recreationalopportunities,garneringmorecommunityengagement.

• RefreshAppalachia–growingfarmerstobecomeproducersthatdevelopsmallbusinessventures.

• CoalfieldDevelopmentCorporationworkforcetrainingmodelwhichincludesintheexampleoflocalfoodinvolvescrewmembersworking33hoursaweekinanincubatorfarmcenter–growingvegetablesandlivestockonapostminedlandwithhydroponicgrowing.Crewmembersalsohave6hoursofacademicclassesaweekthatleadstoanAssociatesdegree,and3hoursoflifeskillstrainingaswell.

o Coalfieldemploysafamilyofsocialenterpriseswithsamemodelacrossseveraldifferentsectorstorecreatecommunities,inconstruction,solardevelopment,agriculture,post-minedlanduseandothersectors.

• “KYValleyEducationalCooperative-Amazingthingsarehappeningintheschoolswithcreativityandaction.TheGatesFoundationcameintotheareatoseehowevaluationishappening.Kidsarebuildingwindtunnels,prosthetics,Kidsaretakingupthechallengeofrecreatingplace,andtheyaredoingit.”

• SocialEnterprisegatheringinMorgantowninMayChallengestogroweconomicresilienceinAppalachia

• Alotofinformation,“knowhow”andknowledgethatisassociatedtheoldergenerationisbeinglostasthosegenerationsarepassingaway.

• Accesstocapitalforsmallbusinessesandriskaversion.• Alackofinfrastructurehasbeenoneofthebiggestfactorsholdingregionsbackin

Appalachiafromeconomicgrowth.• Thereisarichcivilrightshistorybutalsoatroubledhistoryofwhitesupremacyand

segregationinmanyareasofAppalachia.• Difficultyindoingpro-activeplanning:“Communitiesbumblealongunlesshavea

greatopportunityoragreatcrisis.Itishorribletoseewhatishappeningwiththecoalsector,butitdoessparksactivityandthatisasilverlining.Itshouldhave

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happened20yearsago.Duetogenerationalchangeandeconomicpressure,manycoalcommunitiesarere-thinkingtheirfoundationsoflocaleconomies.”

• Thereisaneedtolookatwhatthebarriersaretogrowingcommunityhealthandwellness,includinghowtoaccesssocialservicesandaddressaddiction.

• Lackofinnovatingthinking,boldplanningandfreshideasandplanningforeconomicdevelopment.“Manyofthegenerationofeconomicdevelopersarefromthe60’s-70’s–lotsofgoodoldboyswhoarelockedinoldwaysofdoingthings.Theyarebecomingstayed.Itcanbehardfornewideasandfornewideasandpeopletobreakin.Oldwaysofthinkingabouteconomicdevelopment-youseeitinactiontoo.”

• Entrenchedpowerstructures,includingfederalagencies,andstatepoliticianswhoaren’tmorallyjust.

• Limitedacceptanceofnewcomers–manypeoplefeelthreatenedbynewideasandbynewcomers.

• Manypeoplefeelmarginalizedanddiscounted,liketheirideasdon’tmatter.Manyhaven’tbeenengagedorincludinginopportunitiesforneworinnovativethinkingofplanning,butwouldparticipateiftheywereaskedoriftherewasaconsistentforumfortheirideastobeheardandvalued.

o “Howdoyouhavethenaysayerseethelong-term,andbringthemtothetableandseethattheyareimportantparttoprocesses?”

• Extremepovertyandtheinabilitytomeetbasicneeds,includinglong-termgenerationalpoverty.

o “Peopleareleaving,thereisnoworkandgrowingdespairandaddiction.Itisnothavingaclearpathforwardthatisabigpartoftheproblem.”

o “Folkswhowereformerminershavebeatenbodies–theyhavehomestheycannolongerpayforandaskillsetthatisnottransferrableoutsideofmanufacturing.”

o “Coalseverancetaxessupportedschoolsandinfrastructure,andwasagodsendforsolong.Nowthatithastakenthisturn,peoplearereallystruggling.Thedevastatinghumanimpactofthisshiftisindescribableonthelivelihoodsonhomesandfamilies.”

• Peopleareleavingandtheresource(coal)won’treturn.o “Peoplearestaying–some–butwiththehopethatthenewadministration

willrestorecoalminingopportunities–themarketshift,thepriceofnaturalgasandtheinvestmentinnaturalgasproducingfacilitiesmeanthat(coalopportunities)willneverbewhatitwas.“

o “Manypeopleareleaving.Therehasbeenamassexodusforquitesometime,butmanyarecomingback.Therearealackofopportunities,butastrongsenseofbelongingandsenseofplaceherewithfamilybondsthatrunsodeep.Thereisstronggroundinginacommunity.“

o “Therealitythatcoalisnotcomingbacktothelevelitwas,andthedifficulty

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andsadnessinthatreality,isveryhardforpeopletolookatoracknowledge.”

o “Asacommunity(ineasternKentucky)wearedowntoaround3,000coalminersnow.Butthereare30,000healthcareworkers,butwedon’tpayattentiontothem.”

• Theboomandbustcyclesofanextraction-basedeconomyhavecreatedanon-durablemonoeconomycreatemultiplechallenges.

• ManyundocumentedimmigrantsandLatinofamiliesespeciallyareinvulnerablepositionsincommunitiesandneedopportunitiestogrowcommunityandsafety.

• “Economicresiliencewillcomebacktomonoculturebasedongas,notcoal.Everythingelsewillbedrivenout.”

PractitionerGuidebookFormatideasandsharingbestpractices

• Use“drumbeatstorytelling”asawaytochangethingsviamakingconnections.• Developchecklistsandmenusthatcommunitiescanusewithrealpractical

examples.• Developaprintedguidebookwithdigitalresources.

o Easytoaccesswithscaffoldingideas.o Connecttovideos,reports,linkstoresources.

• Usesimple,commonlanguage.• Sharestoriesfromonecommunitytoanother–thisisimportant–liftingupstories

ofrealpeopleinrealplaces.• Createdifferentelementsofthereport/productsothat“folkscanconsumewhatis

relevanttothem.”• Videostohighlightexamples.• Shareprinciplesandpracticalexamples.• Focusonsector-basedworktodividecontent/subjectsupbyaspecifictopicoridea

forspecificaudiences.o Lookforspecificpointsofentrybytopic(suchasarounddilapidated

buildingsorrenewableenergy).o Shareinformationaboutdifferenttypesofcapitalandsocialenterprises.o Includeinformationaboutsystemsthinking(thinkinglong-term,

interconnectionofideasandresources—“whenyoupushsomethingelseispulled”).

• Long-termideasforgrowingeconomicresilience:o Createalong-termregionalfocus/advisorygroupcomprisedofindividuals

who’vehadsuccessintheirrespectivecommunitiesofbuildingeconomicresiliencethroughcollaborativepartnershipsandcreativethinking.

o Createface-to-faceinter-regionexchangesforcommunitymemberstolearn

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fromoneanother.o Developaroadshowofwhathasworked,andsmallermeetings,andtakeit

todifferentcommunities.• Guidebookaudienceconsiderations:

o Ask:“Whatisitintheworlddoyouwanttochange?Whoneedstheinfotomakechangehappen?Howdothosepeoplegettheirinformation(sothatyouaren’tusingchannelsthatdon’twork)?Howdoyoumotivatecommunities?”Createlivingdocumentswithphotosandvideolinks.

o Createdifferentformatsfordifferentaudiences• “Haveamixofexperience,analysisandimplications.Create2-4goodexamplesthat

aredifferentenoughtoappealtoabroadbaseofpractitioners,butthatcommonlearningsandbroaderlessonscanbedistilledfrom.Havepracticalexperience,andalsohard,solidfactsandregularthinking.Weneedrealexamples–groundingintherealworldandexamplesthataremixedenough–notsingularlyunique–notinaplaceorinastagethatistoofarfromtheaudience’sexperience.NotAshevilleorPortland–butlessonslearnedfromplaces.Statingthingsassimplyaspossible.”

• Peerlearningopportunitiesarekey.o Thisneedstobeinpersontobuildtrustandlegitimacy.o Sitevisitsandplace-basedlearningarekey.o Holdingconveningsaroundsectors.o Usesocialmediamorefluently.o Holdhybridwebinarsandconferencecallswherepeoplecanbepeer

learnerstogether.• Inthedigitalengagement,askrespondentsabouthowtheydoimplementation–with

questionssuchas“Whatisyourrevenuegeneratingprocess.Howdidyousetitup?Whatdoyoudowiththerevenues?”

o Gatherideasforpractitionerstoproactivelyplanhowtofundinitiativesbyunderstandingotherrevenuegeneratingprograms.

• Inthecasestudies,askspecificquestionsabouthowrevenuestreamsaresetup,howorganizationsfunctions,howitwasestablishedandhowrevenueisgenerated.

Whoelsetoengageintheeffortmovingforward

• USDAForestService• MainStreet• Businessowners• WilliamsonHealth&WellnessCenter-www.williamsonhealthwellness.com.Darrin

McCormickistheoutreachcoordinator,andhecanbereachedat(304)235-3400.• FoundationssuchasBenedum,Babcock,andARC

o RayDaffnerofARC

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• ToddChristensen• StacyMitchelloftheInstituteforLocalSelfReliance• KimberLanning–founderandexecutivedirector–LocalFirstArizona• KateGreen–MainstreetFairmont• JuneHolley–founderatACEnet.http://www.networkweaver.com/• DebMarkley

http://www.energizingentrepreneurs.org/about/team.html/title/deborah-markley• CharlestonWVMainStreet–RickCavender• Williamson,WV-HealthandWellnessCenter–MariaArnottorJennyHudsonform

theMingoCo.Diabetescoalition• Buckhannon,WV-CJRyland• Contactforsmalleconomicdevelopmentprojectsbesidetourismeconomies-

DeborahBahr,Cosby,Tennessee• UsinghistoricAfricanAmericanhistoryinfrastructureaseconomicdevelopment

components:CarleneRobinson,TannerPreservationAlliance&TennesseePicnic,Newport,Tennessee

• StellaGudger,PricePublicCommunityCenter&SwiftMuseum,Rogersville,Tennessee

• BethVanlandingham,CarsonNewmanUniversity'sAfrican-AmericanHeritageAllianceMappingproject,JeffersonCity,Tennessee

• AfricanAmericandata:WilliamTurner• MarieCirillo,ClearforkValleyofTN• MarieWebster–theDirectoroftheClearforkCommunityInstitute

http://www.clearforkcommunityinstitute.com/• ToniaBrookman–DirectoroftheWoodlandCommunityLandTrust• MichelleMockbeewhoworkedontheClearforkCommunityInstituteformany

yearsandhelpeddeveloptheVolunteersinPartnership(VIP)programthereandranaparticipatoryactionresearchpracticuminthesummerswithVIPs.

• LyndsayTaurus-TheEconomicTransitionCoordinatorforTheAllianceforAppalachiaTheAllianceforAppalachiaisanallianceof16membergroupsacrossAppalachiaworkingonissuesaroundcoalminingandeconomicdiversification.https://theallianceforappalachia.org/

• EmmaCosigua.SheisfromGuatemalaandlivesinKnoxville.Sheisveryinvolvedincommunityworkwithimmigrants,educationreform,over-policing,etc.andwouldbegreattotalkto.The2015AppalachianMediaInstitutecohort,Appalshop'syouthmediaprogram,traveledtoKnoxvilletointerviewEmmaandothercommunitymembersabouttheirexperienceslivingasLatinxinAppalachiaandproducedthisdocumentary:DosPatrias.

Potentialcasestudiessuggestedfrominterviewees• LookoutsideofAppalachia,particularlytocommunitiesthathavebouncedback

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fromnaturaldisastersorthathavelostentireindustries(suchasinVAwhereVEEwascreated).8

• “Thebestplacesarestilldevelopingtheirabilitytoberesilient.Weneedactualdatathough.Manycommunitiesarecomingtogripswiththeneedforgreaterrelianceandtoolsforbuildinglocalcapitalandincreasingself-reliance,andwiththathigherrecognitionandmoretimewillbededicatedtowardgettingmoreresilient,andtheywillbecomemoreresilient.But,therearewaymorethatarevulnerablethanresilient.”

• Severallocationswerenotedbymultipleinterviewees.

8In February 1977, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia fined Allied Chemical Corporation $13.2 million for polluting the James River with the insecticide Kepone. www.vee.org/about/history/

1. Elkhart,IN2. Jacksonville,FL3. BritishColumbia4. EastCentralVermont:Addison,

Orange,Rutland(particularly),WindsorCounties

5. SouthwestVA(countiesofWise,Russell,ScottandTazewell;townsofWiseandNorton)

6. AthensCounty,OH7. Chattanooga,TN8. MaineFisheries:(countiesofYork,

Cumberland,Sagadahoc,Lincoln,Knox,Waldo,Hancock,WashingtonCounties)

9. PAWILDS(countiesofCameron,Centre,Clarion,Clearfield,Clinton,ElkForest,Jefferson,Lycoming,McKean,Potter,Tioga,andWarren)

10. Rutland,VT11. Beckley,WV12. Morganton,NC13. MingoCountyWV14. Gilbert,WV15. Asheville,NC16. GreenbrierCounty17. EasternKYCounties:(Especially

thetownofWhitesburg)18. Fayetteville,WV19. Charleston,WV20. Huntington,WV21. Tri-Cities:JohnsonCity,TN,Bristol

andKingsport,VA22. Danville,PA23. Bloomsburg,PA24. Columbia,PA25. Ohiopyle,PA26. FayetteCounty,PA27. Tupelo,MS28. Oxford,MS29. Florence,MS30. MussellShoals,MS

31. Bucksport,ME32. DickinsonCounty,IA33. Cleveland,OH34. Sparksville,MO35. Columbus,MO36. Roanoke,VA37. Blacksburg,VA38. Louisville,KY39. Marion,VA40. Moorehead,MN41. Belfast,ME42. Damariscotta,ME43. Pittsburgh,PA44. RockCastleCounty,KY45. Lawrence,KS46. BeckwithCounty,KS47. Buckhannon,WV48. Grafton,WV49. Wheeling,WV50. Williamson,WV51. Princeton,WV52. Fairmont,WV53. Bellingham,Washington

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Intervieweesinclude:1. JonathanBelcher,ExecutiveDirector,VirginiaCoalfieldEconomicDevelopment

Authority2. DeeDavis,President,CenterforRuralStrategies3. TaEnos,ExecutiveDirector,PAWildsCenter4. AnthonyFlaccavento,President,RuralScale5. MichelleFoster,PresidentandCEO,TheGreaterKanawhaValleyFoundation6. PeterHille,President,MACED7. WilliamIsom,SustainableandEquitableAgriculturalDevelopmentTaskForce8. LeashaJohnson,ExecutiveDirector,MingoCountyRDA9. JakeLynch,DirectorofNetworkCommunications,WVCommunityDevelopmentHub10. DeborahMarkley,ManagingDirector,CenterforRuralEntrepreneurship11. ErikPages,President,EntreWorksConsulting12. LeslieSchaller,DirectorofPrograms,AppalachianCenterforEconomicNetworks13. AdaSmith,InstitutionalDevelopmentDirector,Appalshop14. KentSpellman,Consultant,Rails-To-TrailsConservancy15. TomTorres,ViceChairoftheAppalshopBoardExecutiveCommittee16. StephanieTyree,ExecutiveDirector,WVCommunityDevelopmentHub17. BonnieSwinford,TennesseeChapterofSierraClub18. ThomasWatson,ExecutiveDirector,RuralSupportPartners19. BarbaraWycoff,ExecutiveDirector,OneFoundation

Interviewquestionsincluded:1. Tellmealittleaboutyourselfandyourbackground-howareyouworkingwith

communitybuildingandeconomicresilienceinyourlocalarea?2. Howwouldyourateowncommunity’slevelofresiliencyonafive-pointscale(1being

theleastresilient,5beingthemostresilient)?3. Whathascreatedthegreatestpositivechangeinyourcommunityorregionovertime?

Whathavebeenthegreatestchallengesanduntappedopportunities?4. Whathavebeenthebiggestpointsofinspiration(people,places,orideas)inyour

community--orbeyondyourcommunity--thatyouhavedrawnfrom?5. Whattoolsorresourceshavebeenthemostimportantleveragepointsforcreating

resilienceinyourcommunity(thesemightincludeafundingoragencyresource,decision-makingprocess,orbestpractice)?

6. Whathavebeenyourgreatestlessonslearnedovertime?7. Whatadviceorideaswouldyouoffertootherpractitionersorcommunityleadersas

theyworktobuildingthrivingcommunitiesandregions?8. Whattoolsorresourcesdoyouthinkwouldbethemosthelpfulforcommunityleaders

andpractitionerstobuildeconomicresilienceintheircommunities?Whatspecificformatswouldbethemosthelpfulincreatingapractitionerguidebook?

9. Whoelsedoyouthinkshouldbeinvolvedorconsultedinthiseffort?10. Arethereanyotherideas,bestpractices,orexamplesofresilientcommunitiesthatyou

wouldliketoshare?

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APPENDIXC:ADVISORYTEAMCALLSUMMARIES

AdvisoryTeamcallsummaryFebruary6,2017

ForStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunities

ThefirstcalloftheAdvisoryTeamfortheStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesprojectwasheldonMonday,February6,2017.AdvisoryTeamcallparticipantsarelistedattheendofthesummary.ChristineGyovaiofDialogue+DesignAssociateswelcomedparticipantstothecallandgaveanoverviewoftheAdvisoryTeamfocus.FritzBoettnerofDownstreamStrategiesthengaveanoverviewoftheprojectandprojectdeliverables(seetheprojectdescriptionbelow).Participantsthenintroducedthemselves,andChristinegaveanoverviewoftheinitialstrategiesandbestpracticesfortheeffort.Finally,StephanGoetzoftheNortheastRegionalCenterforRuralDevelopmentatPennStateprovidedanoverviewoftheinitialeconomicanalysisfindings,andparticipantssharedtheirfeedbackaroundboththeinitialqualitativeandquantitativefindings.ThenextAdvisoryTeamcallwillbeinmid-spring2017,andthethirdandfinalAdvisoryTeamcallwillbeinearlysummer2017.BelowarehighlightsfromtheAdvisoryTeamcall.ProjectoverviewandIntroductionsInadditiontosharingnamesandaffiliations,AdvisoryTeammemberssharedtheirfavoriteAppalachiantowntovisitatthebeginningofthecallwhichincluded:Fayetteville,WV;ThomasandDavis,WV;Johnstown,PA;St.Paul,VA;HarpersFerry,WV;Slade,KY;ElkhornCityandBreaksInterstatePark,KY;Waterford,OH;HighKnobareaatBarkCampLake,VA;Whitesburg,KY;theWildRampinHuntington,WV;andPittsburg,PA.Fritzthenprovidedanoverviewoftheprojectandprojectapproach(whichmaybefoundintheattachedprojecthighlightsdocument,whichwassharedwithAdvisoryTeammembersinadvanceofthecall).OneAdvisoryTeammembernotedthatitisachallengetodelineatewhatwemeanbyresilienceandhowwedefineit,notingthatresiliencecouldrefertotheabilityofacommunitytouseashockasanopportunityto“bounceforward,”notjust“comeback.”DraftstrategiesandbestpracticesChristinethenprovidedanoverviewofthedraftstrategiesandbestpracticesfortheproject(includedintheprojecthighlightsdocumentbelow).AdvisoryTeam(AT)memberquestionsandfeedbackincluded:

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! Oneofthegreatestchallengesinthisworkisinhowwecanchangemindsetsinthecommunity,visioninghowcommunitiescanbereimaginedforgrowth.Learninghowothercommunitieshavedonethiswouldbehelpful.

! ForanotherATmember,regardingchangingmindsets,oneoftheoneofthebiggesttake-awaysfromarecentARCmeetingforPOWERgranteeswithveryimpressive“youngergeneration”folksfromKY,WV(includingfromtheWVHub)andotherswhoarespreadingamazingpersonalstoriesandsayingthatweneedtogetawayfrom“povertyporn”.Weneedtosharetheverypositiverealfacesandrealpeopleandpositivestories.”

! Anotherparticipantnotedthatitisdifficultforcommunitymemberstochangetheirmindsets–itishardtogetpeopletochangewhattheyareusedtodoing.

SeveralATmembersnotedtheimportanceof“changingthenarrative”.OneparticipantnotedthatinAppalachiathereisastronglegacyandinherentnatureofstorytellersthatcanbebuiltonwith“networksofnetworksofstorytellerscomingtogether.”SomeresourcesandexamplesofthisincludetheCentralAppalachianNetwork(CAN),whichcreatedavideoafewyearsagoaroundlocalfoodvaluechains,groundedinWealthWorksmetrics(whichweremadebyCurtisCreative).“Weneedtousemediainnewwaystogetstoriesoutandshiftthenarrativeatagrassrootslevel.”AdditionalATmemberfeedbackincluded:

! SomecommunitiesinMingoCountyaredoingagoodjobinchangingthenarrativebyrebrandingandrecreatingwhowearethroughagrassrootseffortwithcommunitybuy-in.Therehasbeenresistanceofcommunitymembersaswell;thereisastrongrecognitionoftheimportantheritageandbackboneofcoalintheregion,butalsoaneedtolooktothefuture.AttheWilliamsonHealthandWellnessCenter,communitymembersareworkingtobuildacultureofhealthbyaddressinglong-termhealthissues.Severalsmallbusinessstart-upshaveresultedfromWellnessCenterinitiativesandfrombuildingoutnetworks,aswellasfromimplementingbroadbandstrategiesandfindingwaystochangethenarrativeandofferlongterm-termideasforsustainablegrowth.

! IneasternKentucky,thewaystate-ledeconomicdevelopmentinfrastructureisconductedcanbeproblematic.EconomicdevelopmenteffortsinsouthwestVirginiahavehadmoresupportfromthestatelevel.

! Atthestatepolicylevel,stateEconomicDevelopmentcabinetsforeconomicallydistressedcommunitiescouldbeasupportivedriverforgrowingeconomicresilience.

! StateEconomicDevelopmentAuthority,includingcommerceandinfrastructuredepartments,coulddevelopedasapotentialcasestudy.RecentlyinWV,therehasbeennewcollaborationwiththeDept.ofCommerceandtheworkoftheWVCommunityDevelopmentHubtoshareideasaroundtransitionworkandeconomicdevelopmentworkforpossiblepolicyrecommendations.Thistooktheorganizationofthenetworksofpeople(notjustoneentityandorganization,butaseriesofentitiesandtownsthatareworkingtogether).

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! Weneedtofocusontheassetsthatwehaveinthecommunity,andhowtoencouragestate-leveleconomicdevelopmententitiestoreflectbothshort-termandlong-terminnovativesolutionsthatarisefromwithincommunities.Thereisasenseofurgencytocreaterealeconomicgrowthandresilienceinmanycommunitiesthathavebeendevastatedbycoal-relatedjobloss,aswellastobuildlong-termsolutionsthatconsidertheheritageoftheregion.

! Theremaybeatimeandplacetoconsiderthat,forsomecommunities,comingbackisn’ttherightsolution.Theremaybeaneedforsomecommunitymemberstomoveonasgrowingresiliencereallyisn’tanoption.Weneedtosupportpeopleinchangingtheircommunities,butthatalsomightincludemovingaway–notjustfocusingonwaysacommunitycanbounceback.

! Oneelementthatiswoventhroughoutsupportingtheeconomicdevelopmentcapacityofcommunitiesistohaveagood,paid,skilledpractitionerdoingtheworkwhocanprovidekeytraining,growsupport,andbuildcapacityincommunities.

Projectteammembersthennotedthattheteamisdevelopingcasestudiesfortheeffortaswell.Finally,theprimaryproductoftheeffortisaPractitionerGuidebookforeconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,whichcouldincludeweb,infographic,printorpossiblyvideocomponents.TheProjectTeamwelcomeATsuggestionsformostusefulformatsandoutreachmethodsforguidebook.QuantitativeAnalysisinitialapproachandfindingsStephanthengaveanoverviewoftheQuantitativeAnalysisinitialapproachandfindings,whichisincludedontheprojecthighlightsdocumentbelow.AdvisoryTeammemberquestionsandfeedbackincluded:

! TheWealthWorksmetricsmightbehelpfulinmeasuringsocialcapital(Wealthworks.org).TherehasbeenasignificantinformationgatheringinsoutheastOhioaroundleveragewhatinteractionsbuildstrongsocialcapital.OneoftheexperiencesatACE-NETthatmightbevaluableisaroundthelong-termrelationshipswithclientsandtenants,andtheabilitytomeasuringmorespecificimpactsofWealthWorksformsofcapital--whichhasstronglyinformedtheirwork--particularlyaroundthefoodsector.Measuringsocialcapitalhasbeenimportant,andthechallengehasbeenhowtoscaleituptothinkandactacrosstheregion.

! Havingmorebaselineeconomicdataandinformationaroundeconomicresiliencewouldbeveryhelpful.Povertystatisticsaresoprominent,andelectedofficialsaremakingpromisesbutwedon’thaveabaselinetomeasurepolicyorlegislativeimpactsagainst.Someofthedataaroundnationalruraleconomicdevelopmentandfutureprojectionsarenowbeingscrutinizedinmoredetail.Forexample,nationalretaildensityassumptionsweremadeandusedextensivelyinruralareastocreateeconomicdevelopmentplansaroundrevivingtheretailsector,butweneedtolookatthatstrategymorecloselytoseeifitisreallyviable.Iftheretailsectorisdeclining,weneedtodevelopalternativeeconomicgrowthplanssuchasaroundhealthcare.

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NextstepsandfollowupAttheendoftheAdvisoryTeamcall,ProjectTeammemberssharednextstepsfortheprojectoutreachwhichincludedconductinginterviews,adigitalengagement,andaFocusGroup.FutureAdvisoryTeamcallswillbeinmid-springandinlateJune2017.ParticipantsfromtheFeb.6AdvisoryTeamcallYouth

EricDixon,AppalachianCitizenLawCenterRepresentingPhilanthropicFoundations

JustinMaxson,MaryReynoldsBabcockFoundationBarbaraWycoff,OneFoundation

RepresentingCommunityGroupsDeeDavis,CenterforRuralStrategiesPeterHille,MountainAssociationforCommunityEconomicDevelopmentDebraHorne,Mayor,TownofDungannon,VALeslieSchaller,AppalachianCenterforEconomicNetworks

UniversitiesShannonBlevins,UniversityofVirginia’sCollegeatWiseJenniferSimon,OhioUniversity

LocalDevelopmentLeashaJohnson,MingoCountyRedevelopmentAuthority

ProjectTeammembersFritzBoettner,DownstreamStrategiesStephanGoetz,PennStateChristineGyovai,Dialogue+DesignAssociates

AdvisoryTeamandProjectOverviewfortheStrengtheningEconomicResiliencein

AppalachianCommunitiesprojectoverviewTheAdvisoryTeamfortheEconomicResilienceprojectwillbecomprisedofadozenkeyadvisorswithexperienceineconomicresilienceandbuildingthrivingcommunities.ThisEconomicResilienceproject,sponsoredbytheAppalachianRegionalCommission,willexploreanddocumentstrategiesandpolicieslocalleaderscanusetoenhancethefutureeconomicprospectsofcoal-impactedcommunitiesthroughouttheAppalachianRegion.FRITZTherearefourkeycomponentstothisresearchproject:1)developacomprehensive,quantitativeframeworktoexploreeconomicresilience;2)identifyaseriesofbest-practicestrategiesforstrengtheninglocaleconomicresilience;3)conductupto10in-depthcasestudies;and4)produceaconciseguidebookthatinterpretsandintegratesfindingsoftheresearch,writtenspecificallyforlocaleconomicdevelopmentpractitioners.

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AdvisoryTeammemberswillgiveinputatkeypointsintheprojectaroundtheapproachofthequantitativeandqualitativeanalyses,web-basedsurvey,FocusGroupdevelopment,andfinalGuidebookandFinalReportdevelopment,andotherpotentialareas.ThreeconferencecallswillbeheldwiththeAdvisoryTeamduringeachofthethreeoverarchingphasesoftheproject,withconferencecallslikelyheldinlateJanuaryorearlyFebruary2017,earlyApril2017,andlateJune2017.

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AdvisoryTeamcallsummaryJune8,2017

FortheStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesprojectThethirdcalloftheAdvisoryTeamfortheStrengtheningEconomicResilienceinAppalachianCommunitiesproject,sponsoredbytheAppalachianRegionalCommission,washeldonJune8,2017.ThefirstAdvisoryTeamcallwasheldinFebruaryof2017,andthesecondcallwasheldaspartofabroaderFocusGroupwebinarinAprilof2017.TheJune8thcallwasmoderatedbyChristineGyovaiofDialogue+DesignAssociates.Acompletelistofparticipantsisavailableattheendofthisdocument.Christineopenedthecallbysummarizingthestateoftheprojectthusfar.Shethenreviewedthatagendaandpurposeforthecallwhichwasto:1)updatedtheAdvisoryTeamaboutthedraftbestpracticesandstrategieswhichwerebeingsharedinasurveyacrossAppalachia,and2)tosolicitfeedbackfromtheAdvisoryTeamabouthowbesttointegratethequantitativeanalysiswiththequalitativeanalysisforthepractitionerguidebook(oneoftheoutputsoftheproject).Christinethenpresentedasummaryofthequantitativeanalysistodate.Followingthis,StephanGoetzandAlanCollinspresentedthefinalresultsoftheirrespectivequantitativemodelingofresilienceinaPowerPointpresentation.ChristinethenwelcomedfeedbackfromAdvisoryTeammembersontheeconomicanalysisfindingsandaroundthequestions:

• Howtobestcommunicatetheeconomicanalysisfindingsinthepractitionerguidebook?

• Whatinformationdoeconomicdevelopmentpractitionersmostneed?Inwhatformats?

• Howshouldinformationbesharedinthepractitionerguidebook?• Additionalsuggestionsandideas

Stephannotedthatitisinterestingthatself-employmentdoesn’trisetothetopofimportantfactors,butbusinessdensityisbroadlypositive;businessdensityvaluesshouldrequireself-employmenttogrow.Christinethencommentedthatcommunityandeconomicdevelopmentpractitionershavefoundthataccesstorationalizingapproachestobuildeconomicresiliencefromeconomistsisvaluable.

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Followingthepresentation,AdvisoryTeam(AT)membershadthefollowingquestionsandcomments:

• AnATmemberasked:“Whatisemployment–howisitcharacterized?”StephanansweredthatthisisBLSmonthlyemploymentdata.Afollow-upquestionswasaskedifpart-timeemploymentisincludedinthesenumbers?Stephanwasunsure,andofferedtofollowup.

• Aquestionwasraisedifthereisastepbeyondtheseanalyses,notingthatthequantitativemodelsraisemorequestionsthananswers,andthatmanyofthesethingsareconfusingbecausestatisticaltruthsdon’ttranslateintoknowledgeandherecommendedcreatingacleardistinctionofobservablecorrelationsthatpromoteresilienceandillustrateviablestrategies.

• AnATmembercommentedthattheteamshouldbecarefulinthenarrativetoexplainvariablesandanalysisandensurethemessageisnot“thesethings[thataren’tsignificantorhavenegativesignsintheequations]aren’tviablestrategies–it’smuchmorecomplicatedthanthat.”

• Stephannotedthatthequantitativeteamtriedtointroducetimelagtodemonstratemoreclearcutcauseandeffectrelationships,butthatitwillneedtobemoreclearlyexplainedinthenarrative.

• Acommentwasnotedthatfromthepointofviewoftraditionaleconomicdevelopmentpractitioners,thesefindingsareimportantandsomeofthememphasizethepositivityofexistingefforts.Healsonotedthatperhapsself-employmentslageffectisverylargeandnotmeasuredhere.

• Aquestionarose:“Whatisinnovationpotential?”Stephanrespondedbynotingthatthisisthenumberoffirmsinacountyengagedin“processinnovation.”Thisisasummationoffirmsthatbuyfrommanyotherfirmsandthosethatselltomanyotherfirms.Itisdevelopedwithaninput-outputtableofbuyingandselling.Itisaverynewstatisticandisunderpeerreviewcurrently,butitseemstoshownewinformationaboutthecapacityforinnovationinacounty.

• Christinecommentedthatweneedtoensurethatwedefinethingsveryclearlyandaskedforinputonmethodsofsharingresults.

• AnotherATmemberrespondedbystatingthatitishardtoknowhowthisinformationwilltranslatedintoactionableintelligenceandthatthesepresentationsweren’tasufficientplatformforresponsetothequestionabouthowtosharetheinformation.

• Aquestionwasasked:“Whyarenoneofthesevariablesaboutpolitics?”Stephanansweredthatweusedvotingcompetitivenessandthatweseetightermarginsofthisvariableasindicativeofmorewillingnessamonglegislatorstoproducetangibleresults.Thishasbeendemonstratedanimportantvariableelsewhere,butdidn’tshowuphere.

• Aparticipantrespondedbyaskingaboutothervisiblepoliticalphenomenonsuchascorruption.Theycontinuedbycitingabookaboutruraldevelopmentinwhichtheauthordiscussescorruptionasanunder-reportedphenomenonthatreallyhurts

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developmentprojects.TheauthornotesthatpoorcommunitiesoutsideofAppalachiahavedonebetterwiththesameamountofmoney.Christinenotedthatsimilarquestionswereraisedinthequalitativework.

• Stephannotedthatthereisaliteratureondistancefromstatecapitalsandhowitrelatestocorruption,butthegrouphadn’tconsideredthatvariable.

Attheendofthecall,theProjectTeamthankedtheAdvisoryTeamfortheirtime,andnotedthattheywouldbefollowingupwiththedraftGuidebookforearlyreviewinthenearfuture.CallParticipants

EricDixon,AppalachianCitizenLawCenterJustinMaxson,MaryReynoldsBabcockFoundationDeeDavis,CenterforRuralStrategiesPeterHille,MountainAssociationforCommunityEconomicDevelopmentDebraHorne,Mayor,TownofDungannon,VALeslieSchaller,AppalachianCenterforEconomicNetworksShannonBlevins,UniversityofVirginia’sCollegeatWiseJenniferSimon,OhioUniversityJimBaldwin,CumberlandPlateauPlanningDistrictCommissionEvanFedorko,DownstreamStrategiesEvanHansen,DownstreamStrategiesChristineGyovai,Dialogue+DesignAssociatesStephanGoetz,PennStateUniversityAllanCollins,WestVirginiaUniversity

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APPENDIXD:PRACTITIONERSURVEY

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APPENDIXE:REGRESSIONRESULTSWITHQUADRATICTERMS

Table15:Regressionresultswithquadraticterms,Models1through6

Basic Model1 Model2 Model3 Model4 Model5 Model6Demographic/mobility Age25to44 0.099** 0.095** 0.1** 0.099** 0.1** 0.1** 0.106**Age65andup -0.033 -0.039 -0.032 -0.033 -0.033 -0.034 -0.029EthnicDiversity 0.086*** 0.089*** 0.086*** 0.087*** 0.082*** 0.086*** 0.084***MobilityIn-Migration 0.119*** 0.121*** 0.117*** 0.118*** 0.113*** 0.119*** 0.114***MobilityOut-Migration -0.089*** -0.088*** -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.09*** -0.09*** -0.088***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.058** 0.064** 0.059** 0.058** 0.061** 0.057** 0.06**MobilityOut-Commuting 0.014 0.003 0.013 0.013 0.015 0.014 0.016ResidenceBorn 0.004 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.001 0.003 0.003Population 0.279*** 0.287*** 0.281*** 0.278*** 0.285*** 0.282*** 0.274***LandArea -0.032 -0.034 -0.033 -0.032 -0.034 -0.032 -0.034College 0.107*** 0.104*** 0.109*** 0.109*** 0.111*** 0.106*** 0.114*** Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.147*** 0.145*** 0.146*** 0.147*** 0.147*** 0.147*** 0.143***BusinessDensity 0.036 0.031 0.036 0.035 0.043 0.036 0.044Self-Employment 0.007 0.158** 0.007 0.007 0.01 0.007 0.01Self-EmploymentSquared -0.145*** Poverty -0.111*** -0.112*** -0.111*** -0.111*** -0.118*** -0.11*** -0.104***Participation 0.085** 0.087** 0.086** 0.085** 0.079* 0.084** 0.089**InnovationPotential 0.06** 0.062** 0.06** 0.061** 0.06** 0.06** 0.059**IndustryDiversity 0.092* 0.082* 0.093* 0.092* 0.083* 0.091* 0.077KnowledgeDiversity -0.051** -0.051** -0.051** -0.051** -0.05** -0.051** -0.053**Farming 0.059 0.054 0.059 0.059 0.061 0.059 0.059Oil&Gas 0.044 0.043 0.045 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.043Coal -0.063*** -0.062*** -0.063*** -0.063*** -0.063*** -0.063*** -0.063***Manufacturing -0.03 -0.029 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.029 -0.031 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.007 -0.006 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.006CommunityCollege -0.026* -0.025* -0.026* -0.026* -0.027* -0.026* -0.024Broadband -0.035 -0.035 0.001 -0.035 -0.037 -0.035 -0.04BroadbandSquared -0.040 Child/ElderCare 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.021 0.003 0.004 0.003Child/ElderCareSquared -0.018 HealthPractitioner -0.095*** -0.094*** -0.095*** -0.095*** -0.097*** -0.096*** -0.097***RecreationalOpportunity -0.022 -0.021 -0.022 -0.022 -0.023 -0.022 0.082RecreationalOpportunitySquared -0.474* NaturalAmenity 0.006 0.004 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.008SocialCapital 0.004 0.006 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.024 -0.003SocialCapitalSquared -0.016 FederalFunds -0.008 -0.008 -0.007 -0.008 0.46* -0.008 -0.014FederalFundsSquared -0.104**VotingCompetitiveness -0.007 -0.007 -0.006 -0.006 -0.004 -0.007 -0.006Agritourism 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.016DirectFarmSales 0.027* 0.027* 0.028* 0.027* 0.026 0.028* 0.027* Constant *** ** *** *** *** *** ***N 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049AdjustedR2 0.2577 0.2586 0.2574 0.2574 0.2584 0.2574 0.2585Note: Table shows robust standardized coefficients with state fixed effect. Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower. No linear effects detected for broadband, child/elder care, etc.

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APPENDIXF:REGRESSIONRESULTSWITHINTERACTIONTERMS

Table16:Regressionresultswithinteractionterms,Models1through4

Basic Model1 Model2 Model3 Model4Demographic/mobility Age25to44 0.099** 0.091** 0.097** 0.096** 0.1**Age65andup -0.033 -0.029 -0.034 -0.031 -0.024EthnicDiversity 0.086*** 0.084*** 0.083*** 0.086*** 0.091***MobilityIn-Migration 0.119*** 0.115*** 0.11*** 0.115*** 0.118***MobilityOut-Migration -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.09*** -0.09***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.058** 0.057** 0.052* 0.058** 0.055*MobilityOut-Commuting 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.012ResidenceBorn 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.008 0.006Population 0.279*** 0.253*** 0.278*** 0.24*** 0.231***LandArea -0.032 -0.033 -0.032 -0.032 -0.025College 0.107*** 0.118*** 0.113*** 0.124*** 0.127*** Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.147*** 0.146*** 0.145*** 0.141*** 0.107**BusinessDensity 0.036 0.017 0.025 0.019 0.017Self-Employment 0.007 0.002 0.006 0.001 0.004Poverty -0.111*** -0.109*** -0.107*** -0.115*** -0.107***Participation 0.085** 0.097** 0.09** 0.085** 0.09**InnovationPotential 0.06** 0.062** 0.063** 0.059** 0.06**IndustryDiversity 0.092* 0.106** 0.096** 0.104** 0.097**KnowledgeDiversity -0.051** -0.052** -0.061*** -0.047** -0.052**Farming 0.059 0.05 0.062 0.047 0.04Oil&Gas 0.044 0.045 0.049 0.044 0.046Coal -0.063*** -0.062*** -0.061*** -0.064*** -0.059***Manufacturing -0.03 -0.028 -0.028 -0.029 -0.027 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.007 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.001CommunityCollege -0.026* -0.024 -0.026* -0.024* -0.022Broadband -0.035 -0.039 -0.036 -0.037 -0.034Child/ElderCare 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.006 0.005HealthPractitioner -0.095*** -0.09*** -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.085***RecreationalOpportunity -0.022 -0.02 -0.022 -0.021 -0.023NaturalAmenity 0.006 0.011 0.011 0.006 0.008SocialCapital 0.004 0.27** 0.088* 0.274* -0.098**FederalFunds -0.008 -0.011 -0.01 -0.011 -0.01VotingCompetitiveness -0.007 -0.008 -0.007 -0.007 -0.005Agritourism 0.016 0.017 0.015 0.016 0.014DirectFarmSales 0.027* 0.027* 0.028* 0.027* 0.027*socialcapitalx%age_25-44 -0.271** socialcapitalx%mobility_in-com -0.087** socialcapitalxpopulation -0.283* socialcapitalxdistance_0.25M 0.139*** Constant *** *** *** *** ***N 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049AdjustedR2 0.2577 0.2591 0.2589 0.2586 0.2613Note: Table shows robust standardized coefficients with state fixed effect. Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower.

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Model5 Model6 Model7 Model8 Model9 Model10Demographic/mobility Age25to44 0.094** 0.097** 0.099** 0.099** 0.103** 0.1**Age65andup -0.037 -0.035 -0.035 -0.033 -0.042 -0.032EthnicDiversity 0.092*** 0.087*** 0.084*** 0.083*** 0.091*** 0.085***MobilityIn-Migration 0.272*** 0.117*** 0.115*** 0.116*** 0.117*** 0.116***MobilityOut-Migration -0.109*** -0.089*** -0.083*** -0.085*** -0.085*** -0.083***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.065** 0.061** 0.062** 0.062** 0.055* 0.066**MobilityOut-Commuting 0.01 0.104** 0.003 0.012 0.018 -0.002ResidenceBorn 0.002 0.006 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.005Population 0.259*** 0.286*** 0.16* 0.281*** 0.285*** 0.29***LandArea -0.032 -0.034 -0.033 -0.033 -0.034 -0.034College 0.102*** 0.106*** 0.11*** 0.109*** 0.106*** 0.107*** Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.146*** 0.148*** 0.145*** 0.283*** 0.149*** 0.148***BusinessDensity 0.037 0.021 0.033 0.045 0.047 0.024Self-Employment 0.191*** 0.087** -0.291** 0.055* 0.289* 0.066*Poverty -0.111*** -0.111*** -0.105*** -0.109*** -0.116*** -0.11***Participation 0.09** 0.092** 0.086** 0.081** 0.17*** 0.089**InnovationPotential 0.067** 0.061** 0.067** 0.064** 0.056** 0.062**IndustryDiversity 0.107** 0.087* 0.099** 0.099** 0.086* 0.088*KnowledgeDiversity -0.055** -0.052** -0.048** -0.049** -0.05** -0.046**Farming 0.048 0.058 0.073* 0.072* 0.059 0.219**Oil&Gas 0.044 0.044 0.045 0.045 0.044 0.044Coal -0.059*** -0.063*** -0.063*** -0.066*** -0.06*** -0.061***Manufacturing -0.029 -0.032 -0.034 -0.03 -0.029 -0.034 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.005 -0.006 -0.008 -0.01 -0.008 -0.008CommunityCollege -0.021 -0.024 -0.023 -0.026* -0.027* -0.026*Broadband -0.035 -0.036 -0.035 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034Child/ElderCare 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.002HealthPractitioner -0.096*** -0.087*** -0.096*** -0.098*** -0.097*** -0.087***RecreationalOpportunity -0.02 -0.022 -0.021 -0.021 -0.023 -0.022NaturalAmenity 0.011 0.002 0.009 0.009 0.007 0.006SocialCapital 0.003 0.004 0.008 0.004 0.004 0.006FederalFunds -0.006 -0.007 -0.008 -0.006 -0.007 -0.009VotingCompetitiveness -0.004 -0.008 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.006Agritourism 0.02 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.016 0.016DirectFarmSales 0.025 0.027* 0.029* 0.027* 0.027* 0.028*%self-empx%mobility._in-mig -0.27*** %self-empx%mobility._out-com -0.147** %self-empxpopulation 0.291** %self-empxdistance_0.25M -0.155* %self-empx%participation -0.293* %self-empx%industry_Farming -0.174** Constant ** ** *** ** * **N 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049AdjustedR2 0.2610 0.2584 0.2587 0.2591 0.2584 0.2592Note: Table shows robust standardized coefficients with state fixed effect. Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower.

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Model11 Model12 Model13 Model14Demographic/mobility Age25to44 0.091** 0.102** 0.108*** 0.106***Age65andup -0.04 -0.032 -0.026 -0.057EthnicDiversity 0.082*** 0.088*** 0.075*** 0.081***MobilityIn-Migration 0.111*** 0.115*** 0.207*** 0.109***MobilityOut-Migration -0.087*** -0.084*** -0.097*** -0.089***MobilityIn-Commuting 0.453*** 0.062** 0.062** 0.059**MobilityOut-Commuting 0.014 0.006 0.013 0.031ResidenceBorn -0.001 0.005 0.006 0.001Population 0.283*** 0.283*** 0.268*** 0.273***LandArea -0.034 -0.035 -0.029 -0.031College 0.108*** 0.113*** 0.104*** 0.12*** Economic/industry DistancetoCity 0.146*** 0.147*** 0.153*** 0.142***BusinessDensity 0.036 0.027 0.031 0.175***Self-Employment 0.008 0.008 0.006 0.016Poverty -0.112*** -0.113*** -0.111*** -0.1***Participation 0.085** 0.087** 0.09** 0.072*InnovationPotential 0.067** 0.064** 0.063** 0.062**IndustryDiversity 0.082* 0.177*** 0.1** 0.074KnowledgeDiversity -0.052** -0.058*** -0.051** -0.053**Farming 0.058 0.063 0.062 0.061Oil&Gas 0.043 0.042 0.044 0.041Coal -0.064*** -0.063*** -0.061*** -0.063***Manufacturing -0.028 -0.034 -0.03 -0.023 Community/health PrimaryandSecondary -0.006 -0.007 -0.006 -0.004CommunityCollege -0.028* -0.023 -0.024 -0.024Broadband -0.038 -0.038 -0.038 -0.045*Child/ElderCare 0.001 0.216* 0.003 0.002HealthPractitioner -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.089*** -0.092***RecreationalOpportunity -0.022 -0.022 -0.021 0.112**NaturalAmenity 0.014 0.01 0.006 0.011SocialCapital -0.007 0.007 0.011 -0.006FederalFunds 0.092** -0.011 -0.008 -0.018VotingCompetitiveness -0.004 -0.005 0.166*** -0.009Agritourism 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.018DirectFarmSales 0.026 0.028* 0.03* 0.026federalfundx%mobility_in-com -0.415*** child/eldercarexdiversity_industry -0.267* %voting_comp.x%mobility_in-mig -0.207*** recreationalopp.xbusinessdensity -0.211*** Constant ** ** ** ***N 3,049 3,049 3,049 3,049AdjustedR2 0.2600 0.2583 0.2607 0.2609Note: Table shows robust standardized coefficients with state fixed effect. Significance levels: different from zero at *10%, **5%, and ***1% or lower.

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APPENDIXG:EMPLOYMENTFORCOUNTIESWITHHIGHRESIDUALSINTHEOLSMODEL

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APPENDIXH:EMPLOYMENTFORTOPCOUNTIESBASEDONRESILIENCEINTHEOLSMODEL

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APPENDIXI:TOPCOUNTIESBASEDONRESIDUALSINTHEOLSMODELTHATARESELF-EMPLOYMENTDOMINANT

Table19:Topcountiesbasedonresidualsandself-employmentdominant

CountyPopulation(2015) Resilience Residuals

Netgrowth

Dominantsectorinrecovery

Sectorgrowth

Percentofjobgrowth


Taylor,WV 16,318 0.83 0.25 641 Self-employment 199 31.0%Choctaw,MS 9,026 0.71 0.20 483 Self-employment 261 54.0%Buncombe,NC 221,642 0.75 0.12 21,785 Self-employment 7,161 32.9%Oktibbeha,MS 43,985 0.75 0.11 3749 Self-employment 1036 27.6%Fannin,GA 22,174 0.68 0.11 1309 Self-employment 445 34.0%Alcorn,MS 35,688 0.67 0.10 2583 Self-employment 1053 40.8%Source: USDL (2015).

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