Strengthening Capacity to Address CC for Small and Medium Sized City_S Ishii

8/8/2019 Strengthening Capacity to Address CC for Small and Medium Sized City_S Ishii

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Policy Advisory TA:Strengthening Capacity to AddressClimate Change in Small and MediumSized Cities Development in the PRC

2nd Regional Workshop onEconomics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth

Strategies in Northeast Asia11-12 October 2010

Satoshi Ishii

Urban Development Specialist

East Asia Regional Department



Contents

1. TA background

2. TA objective

3. TA input & outputs

4. TA approach

5. Further issues

1



Quick Overview: Urbanization in PRC

350 million

1 billion

221

5 billion

170

40 billion

50,0001

will be added to China’s urban population by 2025

will live in Chinese cities in 2030

Chinese cities will have population more than 1 million in 2025

m2 of road will be paved by 2025

mass-transit system will be build by 2025

m2 of floor space will be build –in 5 million buildings by 2025

of these buildings could be skyscrapers in 2025

McKinsey Global Institute estimate (2009)



1. TA Background1.1 Urbanization continues even total population declines

2

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Urban population (million) Rural population (million)

Percentage urban (%) Percentage rural (%)

P o p u l a t i o n ( M i l l i o n )

(%)

1990 2005 2015 2030 20501,149 1,313 1,388 1,458 1,409

315 454 683 880 1,027

27.4 40.4 49.2 60.3 72.9

Total population (million)

Urban population (million)

% urban population

Source: UN. 2008. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2007 Revision Population Database



3

1.1 More challenges for small and medium sized cities

- 1 billion people will live in cities by 2030- Over 200 cities will have its population more than 1 million by 2025



1.2 There is NO one-size-fits-all approach

4

- Feasibility, efficiency and impacts of policies and practices differ significantly

Target city size /Urban density

Scale meritCentralized/Decentralized

ClimateSummer/Winter temperatureAnnual wind/sunshine potentials

Resourceavailability

Water availabilityForestry & agricultural activities

Development

pattern

Industry-driven

Forestry-agriculture-oriented

CultureEnvironmentally consciousnessEducational levels

Factors

Economic/Financial feasibilityDifferent technological options

Energy consumption patternRenewable energy potential

Policy prioritiesDifferent technological options

Policy priorities

Different technological options

Public awareness & participation



Example 1: Japanese GHG mitigation potential from HH

PV

SHFL

RF

KT

CoolingHeating

HW

IT

WS

PV

SH

FL

RF

KT

Cooling

Heating

HW

IT

WS

PV

SH

FL

RF

KT

Cooling

Heating

HW

IT

WS

PV

SH

FL

RF

KT

Cooling

Heating

HW

IT

WS

= 18 major cities

Sapporo Popu. 1.82 mil Daylight: 1,775 hours/yr Heating: 2,574 degree-day Cooling: 0 degree-day

HH no.: -23% (1990-2050)

Utsunomiya

Popu. 0.44 mil Daylight: 1,938 hours/yr Heating: 1,416 degree-day Cooling: 47 degree-day HH no.: +23% (1990-2050)

Naha Popu. 0.33 mil Daylight: 1,821 hours/yr

Heating: 0 degree-day Cooling: 444 degree-day HH no: +64% (1990-2050)

Hiroshima Popu. 1.11 mil

Daylight: 2,005 hours/yr Heating: 1,033 degree-day Cooling: 150 degree-day HH no.: -12% (1990-2050)

-20%*

-26%*

-18%*

-31%*

Source: Low-carbon 2050 Urban Team: analyzed by Prof. T. Ikaga, Keio University* Against the 1990 level 5



Household carbon emissions will bestrongly and negatively correlated tothe January Temperature

Large influence of heatingdemand

Chinese Urban Household Survey 2006

According to household survey, thestudy calculated GHG emission from,electricity, vehicle, and fuel uses.

74 Cities

Example 2: GHG emission

from PRC cities

6Source: Zheng et al. (2009), World Bank Working Paper



2. TA Objectives

The objective of the TA is to develop a nationallow-carbon development strategy and its policy

guidelines for small and medium sized city in

the PRC.

7

3. TA Inputs

TA amount: $625,000($0.5 million from Republic of Korea e-Asia and

Knowledge Partnership Fund)Consultant:

- International 13 person-month

- National 20 person-month



3. TA outputs

Database of national and international goodpolicies and practices on low carbon city

development

8

-

Draft National Low-carbon Small and Medium

Sized City Development Strategies and Policy

Guidelines

-

Capacity building seminar, workshop andknowledge products published

-

Analysis on selected pilot cities-



4. TA Approach

STEP 1: Review on Current Small and Medium Sized CityDevelopment in PRC

9

- Select 2–4 cities and conduct critical literature review

on urbanization trend, urban development policy andplanning concept, their implementation status, and

environmental challenges to minimize GHGs

- Identify different low-carbon development paths and

classification of cities



IEA. 2008. WEO 2007

Mild winter temperature

Industrialization-driven

High urban density

Low urban density

Low winter temperature

Agriculture-driven

10

Target city size /Urban density

Scale meritCentralized/Decentralized

Climate Summer/Winter temperatureAnnual wind and sunshine

Resourceavailability

Water availabilityForestry & agricultural activities

Developmentpattern

IndustrializationForestry-agriculture-oriented

CultureEnvironmentally consciousnessEducational levels

Classification of PRC cities for different low carbon path



3. TA Approach

STEP 2: Summary of National and International Best Practice- Review international and national best practice on (a)

urban land use and transport planning, (b) resource

efficiency, and (c) energy saving;

11

- Identify installation criteria for those practices in the

PRC, potential GHG savings, and necessary investment

for each policy option and practice; and

- Develop a databaseof national and international good

policies and practices on low carbon city development



Case 1: Toyama City Light Rail Transit (LRT)

Impact: Energy saving/Pollution preventionCategory: Urban land use planning

Installation Criteria:

- Low land acquisition/investment cost- Strong local & political support- Careful O&M arrangements, risk sharing

Description:

Encouraging modal shift from privatemotor vehicles to low carbon options.

Positive impacts on urban center development

Investment & GHG reduction:

- 436 t-CO2/year (local est.)- Initial investment $68 million

12



Case 2: Kobe City Urban Ventilation Pathway

Impact: Energy saving/Pollution prevention

Category: Urban land use planning


- Urban planning for new districtdevelopment- Effective in coastal city- Careful analysis on summer/winter cooling/heating demands

Description:

Strategic urban planning to encourageurban air exchange by creating prevailingwind corridors in city for mitigating urbanheat island effect for lowering air conditiondemand.

13



Case 3: Kawasaki City Urban-Industrial Symbiosis

Impact: Reduce lifecycle GHG emission

Category: Resource Efficiency


- Cement manufacturing plant operates

adjacent to cities- Source separation of plastic material- Strong City–Private sector collaboration- Risk sharing between Gov. and Private

Description:

Various factories accept separated plasticfrom the adjacent Kawasaki city for substitute of fuel/reducing agent/rawmaterials.

14



Case 4: Minamata City Municipal Solid WasteSeparation and 3Rs

Impact: Energy & Resource saving

Category: Resource Efficiency


- High community level environmentalawareness and participation

- Necessary for high demand of reuse andrecycling materials- Municipal government initiative andinvolvement

Description:

Community level high efficiency sourceseparation of solid waste for reuse &recycle.

15



Case 5: Yokohama Biogas Recovery fromSewage Sludge

Impact: Energy recovery / Sludge reduction

Category: Energy saving & Resource efficiency


- Relatively large scale centralized treatment

plants for higher efficiency- Stable CH4 demand for operation- Control sludge quality

Description:

Methane (CH4) recovery from the treated

sewerage sludge for sludge reduction andenergy recovery.

16



Case 6:Tokyo District Heating & CoolingRegulation

Impact: Energy saving

Category: Energy efficiency


- Concentrated and high heat load of 21 GJ/h.

-Availability of heating/cooling sources- Mixed land use- Other infrastructure installation (pipelines)- Consensus from heat purchaser

Description:

Municipal regulation to encourage district heatingand cooling technology installation(+ various preferential tax incentives by thegovernment)

17



STEP 3: Pilot City Analysis

-Analyze the applicability of national and international

best policies and practices in PRC cities

- Identify a set of low carbon policy options from thedatabase, calculate potential resource saving, energy

saving, greenhouse gas emission reduction and, where

appropriate, necessary financial investment

18



STEP 4: National Low-carbon City Development Strategiesand Policy Guidelines

- Draft national low carbon small and medium sized city

development policy guidelines

STEP 5: Capacity Building and Dissemination

- Hold knowledge sharing workshops and seminars on

domestic and international best practices for PRCgovernment officials and practitioners.

- Knowledge products19



5. TA Implementation Schedule

2010

Oct

2011

Jan Apr Ju l Oct

2012

Jan

Month -4–0 1–6 7–10 13–16

Preparation

1: Review PRC city

2: Review Int & Nat Best Practices

3: PRC city analysis

Apr

4: Low-carbon Strategy and Guideline

5: Capacity Building and Dissemination

11–12

Workshop KP

ICR ITR DFR

DB/GL

FR

20



Thank you very much

Satoshi Ishii

Urban Development Specialist

East Asia Regional Department

Asian Development Bank

E-mail: [email protected]

Documents

Strengthening Capacity to Address CC for Small and Medium Sized City_S Ishii