Strategist's Handbook: Chart Updatesptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/yardenichartbookdaily.pdfAugust 13, 2017 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates Yardeni Research, Inc. Stock Prices 1

Strategist’s Handbook:Chart Updates

Yardeni Research, Inc.

August 13, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

August 13, 2017 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


Stock Prices 1S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins 2S&P 500 Revenues & Margins 3Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 4S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins 5Blue Angels 6Valuation 7S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 8S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes 9S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 10Equity Flows 11Dollar & Commodities 12Stocks & Commodities 13Big Picture 14US Economic Indicators 15-16China 17-18Eurozone 19

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

8/11

8/11

RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)

MSCI US / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

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Figure 1.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018500

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S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2017(ratio scale)

8/11

200-day moving average

-56.8% (517)

-16.0% (70)

-19.4% (157)

-9.8% (28)

-9.9% (60)

-7.7% (62)

-5.8% (34)

-5.8% (19)

-6.9% (37)

-12.4% (96)

-13.3% (100)

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more(in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 2.

Stock Prices

Page 1 / August 13, 2017 / Strategist’s Handbook: Chart Updates www.yardeni.com


Figure 3.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018650

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8/3

Q2

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (TR weekly data)(dollars)

Revenues Per Share52-week Forward*

Actual (x4)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

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Q1

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS(dollars)

Earnings Per Share52-week Forward*Thomson Reuters Operating (x4)S&P Operating (x4)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

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Q1

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)

S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins

52-week Forward* (11.0)

Thomson Reuters (10.6)

S&P (9.8)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (for forward revenues), and Bureau of the Census.

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S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins



94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-25

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S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES OF GOODS(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (4.5)Business Sales of Goods** (4.2)

** Manufacturing and trade sales.* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.

Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 4.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 212

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S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (Thomson Reuters data)& AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFIT MARGIN

(without IVA & CCAdj)

Corporate Profits After Tax*(as a percent of nominal GDP)

(blue line)Q1

S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginUsing TR Earnings**

(percent, quarterly, nsa)(red line)

Q1

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate thehistorical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** Operating Proft Margin derived using revenues from S&P and earnings from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 5.

S&P 500 Revenues & Margins



Figure 6.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018900

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S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Revenues

Forward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201850

75

100

125

150

175

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100

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150

175

8/317 18

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20186

7

8

9

10

11

12

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

18

8/3

17

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S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

Consensus Forecasts

Forward Margins* (11.0)

Annual Margins

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Forward Revenues, Earnings, & Margins



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201810

30

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1508/3S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (140.31)S&P 400 MidCap (98.55)S&P 600 SmallCap (45.11)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 7.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183

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8/3

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S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

S&P 500 (11.0)S&P 400 (6.8)S&P 600 (4.9)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 8.

S&P 500/400/600 Forward Earnings & Margins



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

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2000

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x10

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x17

x18S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(weekly)

Actual 08/11/17Implied* 08/03/17

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Weekly data start January 2007.

Blue Angels: S&P 500

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 9.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100

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ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATIONAll Country World Ex-US MSCI Index (In local currencies)08/11/17Blue Angels Implied Price Index*08/04/17

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 10.

Blue Angels



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20186

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8/11

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)

S&P 500 LargeCap (17.4)S&P 400 MidCap (17.4)S&P 600 SmallCap (18.4)

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 11.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20185

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15

20

25

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20

25

8/3

MSCI FORWARD P/E(weekly)

Forward P/E*

EMU (14.3)Emerging Markets (12.5)

US (18.0)

Japan (14.2)UK (14.6)

Capped at 20

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* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Figure 12.

Valuation



Figure 13.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

8/3S&P 500(forward P/E) P/E (17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

11

14

17

20

8/3INDUSTRIALS

(17.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

30

8/3

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(19.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

12

16

20

24

8/3

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(18.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

12

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22

8/3CONSUMER STAPLES

(19.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

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8/3

MATERIALS(17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

15

25

35

45

55

65

8/3

ENERGY(27.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

25

35

45

55

65

75

8/3

REAL ESTATE(37.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

8/3

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

(14.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

8/3

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(13.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

8/3

HEALTH CARE

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

(16.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

8/3

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UTILITIES(18.0)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es



Figure 14.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2015 2016 2017

500

550

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 8/11

S&P 500 sectorprice indexes


400425450475500525550575600625650

INDUSTRIALS8/11


450

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CONSUMER STAPLES8/11


600

650

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY8/11


350

425

500

575

650

725

ENERGY

8/11


200

250

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400

MATERIALS

8/11


250

275

300

325

350

375

400

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FINANCIALS8/11


125

150

175

200

225

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

8/11


700

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800

850

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950

1000

HEALTH CARE8/11

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.


200

225

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UTILITIES8/11

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S&P 500 Sectors Price Indexes



Figure 15.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1860

80

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16017 18

8/3S&P 500(forward earnings*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813

19

25

31

3717 18 8/3INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

17

29

4153

17 188/3

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

27

39

51

63

17 18 8/3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813

19

25

31

37

17 18 8/3

CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

11

16

21

2617

18 8/3MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

28

48

6888

108

1718

8/3

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

3

5

7

8/317 18REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

20

32

4456

188/317

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 187

9

11

13

15

1718

8/3

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820

32

44

56

6817 18

8/3HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1811

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13

14

15

16

1718 8/3

UTILITIES

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S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings



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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183

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S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)

Buybacks

Dividends

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD(percent)

Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield** (3.8)S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (5.7)

* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 index.** BoA Merrill Lynch data for AA-AAA yields.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Federal Reserve Board, and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 16.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

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Jun

EQUITY ETFs*(yearly net inflows, billion dollars)

* Net share issuance by equity ETFs.Source: Investment Company Institute.

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Figure 17.

Equity Flows



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19200

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8/11

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.

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Figure 18.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820

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BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 19.

Dollar & Commodities



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

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S&P 500 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX

S&P 500 Index

YRI Weekly Leading Index*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 20.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

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8/11

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau.

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Figure 21.

Stocks & Commodities



18001810

18201830

18401850

18601870

18801890

19001910

19201930

19401950

20

40

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100

20

40

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80

100CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1800-1947

War of 1812(1812-1814)

Civil War(1861-1865)

World War I(1914-1919)

World War II(1939-1945)

* Base index from 1800 to 1947 is 1967 = 100.** 1982-84=100.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States

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19481958

19681978

19881998

20082018

2028

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JulCPI**

Cold War(1948-2016)

Figure 22.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200

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AGE WAVE & INFLATION

Inflation Trend**

Age Wave*

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI.* Percent of labor force 16-34 years old.

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Figure 23.

Big Picture



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

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5.7

5.8

5.9 JulYRI EARNED INCOME PROXY& RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE(trillion dollars, saar)

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (5.9)

Retail Sales ex Gasoline (5.2)

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of the Census.

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Figure 24.

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130

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68 Months1/08-10/13

33 Months2/01-11/03

23 Months7/90-6/92

25 Months8/81-9/83

32 Months11/73-7/76

19 Months10/69-5/71

30 Months5/71-11/73

61 Months7/76-8/81

82 Months9/83-7/90

104 Months6/92-2/01

50 Months11/03-1/08

JunCOINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS*(2010=100, sa, ratio scale)

* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries.Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.

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Figure 25.

US Economic Indicators



68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2040

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140

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100

120

140

2015

2016

REAL CONSUMER INCOME & SPENDING PER HOUSEHOLD*(thousand 2009 dollars, saar)

Real Income & Spending per Household*Personal Income (121.5)Personal Consumption Expenditures (97.8)Disposable Personal Income (106.5)Money Income** (72.4)

* All series deflated using Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator.** Mean household income.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census and Current Population Reports.

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Figure 26.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2010

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8090100110120130140150

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100110120130140150

CMANUFACTURING PRODUCTION & CAPACITY

(2012=100, ratio scale)Jun

Jun

ManufacturingProductionCapacity

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Note: C = China joined WTO on December 11, 2001. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 27.

US Economic Indicators



98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10

-5

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Jul

CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Industrial Production* (7.5)PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (5.5)

* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188.5

8.0

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CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN

Non-Gold International Reserves(trillion dollars, nsa) (3.1)

Yuan/US$(inverted scale) (6.7)

Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

China



97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1300

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CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

5

10

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JunBANK LOANS & MONEY SUPPLY(trillion US dollars)

China: Bank Loans (nsa) (16.8)US: Bank Loans (sa) (9.3)China: M2 (24.0)

Source: Federal Reserve Board and People’s Bank of China.

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Figure 31.

China



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201860

70

80

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120EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONEXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION

Germany (Jun=114.4)France (Jun=91.9)Italy (Jun=85.6)Spain (Jun=79.9)

Eurozone (May=102.5)

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 32.

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14EUROZONE: CPI, M2, & LOANS AT MFIs*(yearly percent change)

CPI (Jul=1.3)M2 (Jun=5.4)MFI Loans toTotal Private Sector (Jun=1.5)

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* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs).Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Figure 33.

Eurozone



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