Upload
himanshu-singh-chawra
View
222
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
1/52
1
Strategies for Full Employment
in IndiaUncommon Opportunities:
Roadmap for Employment, Food & Global Security
November 21, 2004
International Center for Peace & Development, USA
The Mothers Service Society, Pondicherry
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
2/52
2
Unemployment
1993-94 20M
1999-00 27M
Twice as high for lower consumption classes On daily basis 35M
Youth Unemployment 13%
Kerala 35%
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
3/52
3
Natural Employment Generation
New entrants to labour force ` 7-8M/yr
Urban migration 1M/yr
Agriculture employment is flat
Less growth in unemployment -1M/yr
Natural job generation 7-8M/yr
The absence of social unrest and the fact that urban migration continues and
urban unemployment does not rise enormously indicate the surpluses are
being absorbed.
This is unorganized, unconscious process akin to education without schools
Make the unconscious process CONSCIOUS
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
4/52
4
How society stimulates employment
New products
New services
Growth in demand
Technological innovation Higher quality &/or productivity
Organizational innovation
Higher skills
Better access to information
Increased speed
Legislation & law enforcement
Administrative responsiveness
Environment/health consciousness
Change of attitudes
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
5/52
5
Three Approaches to Employment Generation
Expand existing activities
Nursery schools, tutorial institutes, English teaching
Borrow from other countries
Credit rating & collection agencies Trade shows & network marketing
Health clinics
Promote culturally compatible activities
STD & chit funds
Marriage halls
Mini-power plants
Rural information centres
Contract farming agencies
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
6/52
6
Available Modes of Action
Increase access to credit
Provide incentives for new initiatives
Strengthen or enforce legislation Impart training
Use insurance as a stimulus
Publicize opportunities in the media
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
7/52
7
Where are the untapped potentials
Raise farm productivity
Renewable energy
Agro-industrial linkages Service sector
Employable skills
Application of IT
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
8/52
8
Prosperity 2000 Strategy
Agriculture as engine for industrialization & employment growth
Shift focus from meeting minimum production needs to maximumizing profit
per unit land & water
Projecting market growth based on nutritional requirements
Raise productivity of soil & water
Shift to commercial crops which absorb more labour
Develop industry linkages with industries
Create 4.5 million direct & 5.5 million indirect employment opportunities per
annum
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
9/52
9
Indias Crop Productivity Gap
(kg/ha)
Crop USA China India
Maize 8900 4900 2100
Paddy 7500 6000 3000
Soy beans 2250 1740 1050
Seed Cotton 2060 3500 750
Tomato 6250 2400 1430
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
10/52
10
Low farm productivity results in
High unit cost of production
High priced food
Low farm incomes & purchasing power
Low labour absorption
High water consumption/unit of produce
Limited export potential & threat from imports
(e.g. cotton)
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
11/52
11
Technology Strategies
Raise crop yields
Raise water productivity
Improve post-harvest storage & transport
Expand & upgrade processing industries
Raising productivity can create millions of on-farm and
off-farm employment opportunities.
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
12/52
12
Horticulture
Labour content 6 times cereals
Generates 10-30 times earning / unit area
Filling Indias nutritional gap requires 40% growth
Add 4M ha horticulture to raise production 40%
Generate 8 million jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
13/52
13
Food Processing
Improve storage & processing to reduce Rs 70,000 crores in
crop losses
Global share of processed food exports is rising
India processes only 2% fruits & vegetables vs. Thailand 30%,
Brazil 70%, Philippines & Malaysia 78-80%)
India projected to process 10% fruit & veg by 2010
Industry directly employs 1.6M
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
14/52
14
P
ower Demand toT
riple by 2020
4
6
1
1
14
1
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
15/52
15
Biomass Power Generation
Cultivate energy plantations -- casuarina, bamboo, prosopis
on rain-fed & irrigated lands
Power plants 6-25 MW cost Rs 3 cr per MW Cost/unit Rs 2.50 on biomass at Rs 800 per ton
Develop 10 million ha of energy plantation
Establish 4000 units, 40,000 MW
Reduce transmission losses
Create 5 million jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
16/52
16
Oil Demand to Triple by 2020
0 50 100 150 200 250
Power
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Commercial
Domestic
Total
Projected demand for oil in million tonnes
1997 BAU 2020 BCS 2020
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
17/52
17
Biomass Power & Bio-Fuels
Biomass power
Biofuels
Ethanol
Biodiesel
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
18/52
18
Bio-diesel from Jatropa
Develop 5 million ha
Earn Rs 20,000 per acre (irrigated) from 3rd yr
Establish 2500 oil expeller units
Produce 10 MT biodiesel valued at Rs 20,000 cr
Create 5 million jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
19/52
19
Ethanol from Sugarbeet & Sweet Sorghum
Sugarbeet produces twice the sugar in 5 mon
Only 40% water consumption
Add or shift 3 M ha for sugarbeet Additional 15 MT sugar for export or ethanol
Raise sweet sorghum for ethanol rest of year
Produce 10 MT tons ethanol for domestic & export
Generate 8 million jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
20/52
20
EdibleO
il fromP
aradiseT
ree India imports Rs 6,000 cr of edible oil / year
Paradise tree is rainfed, oil-seed crop from Brazil containing
50% edible oil
Cultivate 5 M ha Paradise Tree on degraded forest lands
Establish 2500 oil expeller units
Produce 7. 5 MT of edible oil worth Rs 22,000 crores Create 2.5 million year-round jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
21/52
21
Cotton & Textile Industry
India is 3rd largest producer of cotton
Domestic demand projected to grow 70% by 2010
Export demand projected to triple by 2010
Double productivity of cotton
Double area under irrigated cotton
12 million additional jobs in textile industry
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
22/52
22
Forestry, Herbs, Medicinal Plants
100 M rely on forests for main source of
livelihood, including half of Indias 70M tribals
Objective to raise forest cover 50% in 10 ys
Introduce corporate contract farming with bonded
performance guarantees & assured employment
for local population
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
23/52
23
Fisheries
World seafood market doubled in the 1990s
Indias marine & inland fisheries employ 6M
1/3rd of Indias marine fishery potential untapped
China full-time employment in rural aquaculture
1989 1.5M
1997 3.3M
Shrimp farming -- 4 direct & 4 indirect jobs per ha
1999 161,000 ha generates employment for 1.3M
Additional 120,000 ha would create 1M jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
24/52
24
Dairy
Rs 100,000 crores by 2005
India is largest and lowest cost producer
70M dairy farmers
Cooperatives provide employment for 11M
families
Potential for 42M jobs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
25/52
25
EmploymentP
otential -- summaryCrop productivity growth 5,000,000
Horticulure 8,000,000
Biomass power & bio-fuels 21,000,000
Agro-forestry 6,000,000
Cotton & Textiles 12,000,000
Dairy, animal husbandry, fisheries 8,000,000
Total 60,000,000
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
26/52
26
EmploymentP
otential -- detailsCrop productivity growth 5,000,000
Horticulure 4 M hectares 8,000,000
Biomass power 10 M ha 5,000,000
Ethanol 3 M ha sugarbeet + s. sorghum 8,000,000
Jatropa 10 M ha 8,000,000
Paradise Tree 4 M ha 2,000,000
Other agro-forestry, medicinal herbs 4,000,000
Cotton & Textiles 12,000,000
Dairy, animal husbandry, fisheries 8,000,000
Total 60,000,000
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
27/52
27
Organization for Rural Prosperity
Self Help Groups
Contract Farming
Rural Information Centers
Farm Schools
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
28/52
28
SelfHelp Groups
1 million created in 3 years
15 million members benefit
90%+ repayment of loans
Mostly for non-farm activities
Commodity-wise SHGs for agriculture
Appachi Foundation & ICICI 60 SHGs for cottongrowers in Tamil Nadu
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
29/52
29
Contract Farming
Successful Indian model -- sugar mills
Organize SHGs of farmers
Role of the Contractor
Provide quality inputs
Arrange credit with banks
Arrange crop insurance
Deliver extension services
Tie-up market with industry
Operate farm schools
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
30/52
30
Farm Schools cum Extension
Objective: double farm yields in 3 years
Lead farmers act as paid field training &extension staff for the contractor
Lead farmers run Farm Schools on village lands Demonstrate methods on farmers lands
Train farmers & disseminates information
Operate or link to Village Information Centre
Link to soil test labs Link to agro-service centres
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
31/52
31
Rural IT Knowledge Centres
Mission 2007 500,000 village centres Can create 5 jobs per centre
Can charge for services
Soil analysis -- e
xpert system for advice
Multi-media farm training
Input supply information
Market information
Educational information
Health information
E-government services
Other vocational training
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
32/52
32
Ag Enterprises -- Policy Issues
On-farm training system
Enforce sanctity of contracts
Expand access to credit through SHGs with group guarantees & post-
dated checks, including present defaulters.
Extend powers of Revenue Recovery Act to ensure repayment by SHGs.
Tax credits for contractors who raise farm productivity
Strengthen crop insurance program
Penalties for false documentation by officials
Penalties for adulteration of ag inputs
Railways to provide refrigerated storage & transport
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
33/52
33
Service Sector
USA: provides 80% of jobs
India:
Grew by 60M jobs in 18 yrs
Rose from 25% to 32% of total employment
High potential fields
Tourism
Transport, storage, communication Education
Health care
Financial services
Internet-based activities
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
34/52
34
Internet-based Self-Employment
Desktop publishing
Web design
Web research
E-books
Translation
Technical writing
Engineering & technical services
Opportunities from Rs 5000 to 1 lakh per month
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
35/52
35
Vocational Skills
50% of firms in developing and industrialized
countries report severe shortage of skilled workers.
Indias problem is not lack of employmentopportunities but lack of employable skills.
Skills create employment and self-employment
opportunities.
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
36/52
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
37/52
37
Vocational Training in India
4200 ITIs 1,654 government run
2,620 private
Courses offered 43 engineering & 24 non-engineering trades
Capacity 6.3 lakhs
State enterprise programmes 1.7 lakh
Including agriculture & other 20 lakh
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
38/52
38
Vocational Training Deficit
Students completing 8th
-9th
standard 300 lakhs
Students entering 10th-11th 150 lakhs
New entrants to workforce (per year) 70 lakhs
Vocational training in engineering, agriculture &other fields
20 lakhs
New entrants to workforce w/o training 50 lakhs
Existing unemployed youth (15-29) of which 80%are educated up to 10th
150 lakhs
Existing workers to be trained to raise non-ag
skilled portion to 25%
350 lakhs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
39/52
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
40/52
40
Vocational Schools
Promote vocational institutes at block and district level
5000 govt
50,000 private
Conduct exams for every skill as for drivers licenses
Certify approved training centres, e.g. BPO
Provide scholarships & incentives for trainees
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
41/52
41
Computer-based learning is
twice as fast @half t
he cost
Multimedia
Interactive
Immediate Feedback Self-paced learning
Eliminates need for trained teachers
Responds rapidly to changing skill needs
Uniform testing
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
42/52
42
Computerized Vocational Training
Establish 1 lakh CVT Institutes like internet cafes
50,000 in private sector
50,000 training centres at engineering and arts
colleges, ITIs, polytechs, high schools, NGOs, etc. Partnership with industry to develop multimedia
training software
Provide training to a minumum of 4 million students
per annum Government certification of courses
Generate self-employment opportunities for 50,000entrepreneurs
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
43/52
43
Multimedia vocational courses
RWH Child care Nutritionist
Selling skills Real estate Law clerk
Telemarketing Insurance agent Quality manager
Catering Video editing Furniture design
Farm mgmt Pharma rep Textile design
Reporter Dry cleaning Electrical repair
Travel agent Internet research Graphic design
Bookkeeper Organic farming Interior design
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
44/52
44
CVT Job Shops
Privately owned, self-employment
Each centre with 1 to 10 computers
Stocked with a library of training software
Training material on CD-Rom format
Fees based on an hourly rate
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
45/52
45
CVT Job Shop: Assumptions
Three computers per Job Shop
20 training programmes per Job Shop
Each computer utilized 300 hours per mo
Operating expenses for rent, two paid
employees, phone, electricity may range from
Rs 15,000 to 20,000 per month
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
46/52
46
CVT Job Shop: Economics
Capital investment Rs 1.5 lakh.
Cost of operations per computer hour = Rs 20 / hour.
Cost of amortising of computers and software over two
years = Rs 14 per hour
Average cost of training = Rs 35 per hour
Average retail price of training = Rs 50 per hour
Net profit = Rs 15 per hour or Rs 1.5 lakhs / yr
50 hours of computerized vocational training, equivalent to
about 250 hours of classroom training, would cost the
student only Rs 2500.
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
47/52
47
Training Software: Economics
Cost Rs 50 lakhs per course
Retail price Rs 1000 per set
Sale of 10,000 sets generates Rs 50 lakhs profit
Offer 50% government subsidy for development
of approved courses
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
48/52
48
CVT Action Plan
1. Delivery CVT through all state-owned engineering colleges, ITIs,
Polytechnics, liberal arts colleges, high schools, other institutions.
2. Provide financial assistance/ incentives under Central Government self
employment schemes to promote private training institutes.
3. Encourage financial institutions to provide loans to entrepreneurs.
4. Negotiate with computer software companies to develop a wide range
of vocational training courses.
5. Recognized institutional authorities to certify course contents.
6.Finance bulk purchase of approved training software with 50% subsidyto minimize the cost of training.
7. Train entrepreneurs to set up/manage private institutes.
8. Provide scholarships to low income youth to cover training fees.
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
49/52
49
IT IncubatorBusiness Parks
Computerised vocation training
Computerised tuitions institutes
Computerised language training
Software training
Video-conferencing services
High speed data transfer services
Web, graphic and animation design services
Computer repair and maintenance services
International Internet telephony
Computer hardware parts manufacturing and assembly
Customer and technical support call centres
Back office processing
Medical transcription
Digital photography, scanning and image processing
Internet research services
Accounting services
Computerized testing laboratories
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
50/52
50
Who creates enterprises?
Skilled experienced workers leaving existing jobs
create enterprises
Machinists
taxi drivers
hotel servers
bus cleaners
Printers
tailors
Do entrepreneurial training programmes work?
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
51/52
51
Promoting Entrepreneurship
Extend bank credit & seed capital to employees
with 5 years experience
Require training & certification for new enterprisesto reduce failure rate
Existing entrepreneur to sign as guarantor
Insurance companies can ensure loans based onqualifications
8/7/2019 Strategies for Full Employment in India [EDocFind.com]
52/52
52
Issues for Study
Natural job creation How many jobs are being created?
In which sectors & fields?
By what process?
How can the natural process be magnified and accelerated?
How are rural migrants absorbed in the cities?
Occupational demand Identify high growth occupational categories at all levels
Measure growth in pay/income levels by category
Emerging Activities Identify emerging occupations in all sectors,
Farm managers & Soil technicians
Servicing for cell phones, ACs, computers, VCDs, etc.
Home delivery, floor cleaner, masseuse
Skills for national development Compile a complete list of skills needed for Indias development to next higher level
Job creation in other countries Study which job categories grew rapidly in US during a comparable period?
Efficacy ofEntrepreneurial Development Programmes