OSU

Data and Directions for HECC

Ben Cannon

Executive Director

August 2, 2018

OSU

SWOCC

Clackamas

CC

STRATEGICALLY ELEVATING STUDENT SUCCESS:

A vision for Oregon higher education

“The Higher Education Coordinating Commission (HECC) envisions a future in which all Oregonians -- and especially those whom our systems have underserved and marginalized – benefit from the transformational power of high-quality postsecondary education and training.

“It is a future where innovative colleges, universities, and training providers, both public and private, help Oregonians to reach their highest potentials, build trajectories to family-wage careers, foster a more just society, and break patterns of intergenerational poverty.

“It is a future where postsecondary education fuels a resilient economy by anticipating workforce needs and by fostering innovation, research, and knowledge. In the future we envision, all Oregonians enjoy well-lived lives thanks to the myriad benefits of postsecondary education and training...”

From the HECC Strategic Framework, December 20172

Educational attainment in Oregon

COCC

4

Oregon’s 40-40-20 goal for young adults (HS class of 2025 and beyond)

Bachelor’s or advanced degree

Associate degree or certificate (est.)Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school diploma

Source: American Community Survey data, 1-year estimates.

5

Measuring educational attainment

We endorse a broad understanding of what “counts” for the middle 40, including:

Two-year Associate degrees

One-year certificates

Registered apprentice-ships

Career pathways certificates

Other credentials

We use U.S. Census data to measure attainment, estimating the number of certificates and registered apprenticeships

Oregon attainment tends to be similar to or slightly higher than in the U.S. as a whole, and attainment has risen for both

groups in recent years

6

How does Oregon’s adult population measure up against 40-40-20?

Bachelor’s or advanced degree

Associate degree or certificate (est.)Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school diploma

Source: American Community Survey data, 1-year estimates.

10.6% 10.0% 9.7% 10.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.7%

19.1% 19.8% 19.6% 19.1% 19.2% 18.4% 18.1%

21.3% 20.7% 20.6% 20.4% 20.1% 19.6% 19.6%

19.1% 19.3% 19.2% 19.3% 19.2% 19.0% 19.1%

29.9% 30.1% 30.9% 31.3% 31.6% 33.1% 33.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oregonians 25-64 years old

20

%

40

%

40

%

40-40-20 GOAL

Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Age 25-64

Source: U.S. Census, American FactFinder Table 15002, 2006-2016.

38%

43%

38%

42%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

WICHE

OREGON

Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Age 25-64

Source: U.S. Census, American FactFinder Table 15002, 2012-2016.

31%

36%

38%

38%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

44%

44%

46%

48%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Nevada

New Mexico

Arizona

Alaska

Idaho

Wyoming

California

Montana

Oregon

Utah

South Dakota

Hawaii

Washington

North Dakota

Colorado

Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, By Race/Ethnicity, Aged 25-64

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/.

60%

44%

33%

21%20%

60%

49%

33%

21%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Asian White Black American Indian/AlaskaNative

Hispanic

WICHEOregon

Oregon Coast CC

Enrollment trends at Oregon public institutions

Oregon Undergraduate Enrollment by Institution Type, 2006-2016

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2006-2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Public Four-Year Public Two-Year Independent

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Oregon Public Institutions of Higher Education by Race/Ethnicity, 2006 & 2016 (With Percent Change)

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2006 & 2016.

+3%

+187%

+24%+34% -21%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

White Hispanic Asian Black American Indian/AlaskaNative

2006 2016

Oregon Coast CC

Completion numbers and rates

OIT

14

Community College Associate Degrees by race/ethnicity

Source: HECC analysis of Oregon community college student records.

248

492

61

253

317

1476

71 177201

397

509

0

500

1000

1500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of degrees awarded to students in racial/ethnic groups

Asian American count Black or African American count

Hispanic/Latinx count Native American/Alaska Native count

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander count Two or more races count

5,1127,792

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of degrees awarded to students who are white

15

University Degrees by race/ethnicity

Source: HECC analysis of Oregon public university student records. Includes all degrees to Oregon residents, regardless of type of degree.

14,183

15,710

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of degrees awarded to students who are white

902

1,373

305 428 607

2,032

212 261

108 115

1,208

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of degrees awarded to students in racial/ethnic groups

Asian American count Black or African American count

Hispanic/Latinx count Native American/Alaska Native count

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander count Two or more races count

Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2016

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2016

19%

38%

65%

68%

27%

49%

65%67%

23%

47%

65% 64%

PUBLIC TWO-YEAR PUBLIC BACCALAUREATE/MASTER'S

PUBLIC RESEARCH PRIVATE, FOUR-YEAR

Oregon WICHE US

Oregon Postsecondary Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2006-2016

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

15% 19%

54%59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Completion Year

Public, Two-Year Institutions Public, Four-Year Institutions

Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Four-Year Institutions, 2016

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

American Indian or Alaska Native

Black or African American

Hispanic

White

Asian

Oregon Coast CC

Projecting future demand

LBCC

High School Graduates in Oregon, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

ACTUALPROJECTED

Cumulative Change in Oregon’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22 2024-25 2027-28 2030-31

5,807 Hispanic1,815 Asian/Pac. Isl.498 Am. Ind./Alaska Native779 Black2,918 Private Schools25,463 White

+3,341

+1,177 +1,689

+284

-107-217

-250

22

Most family-wage jobs still rely on postsecondary education

Source: Employment projections from Oregon Employment Department, https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/long-term-job-openings-

fueled-by-growth-retirements . Salary data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupations with the most job growth projected 2014-

2024, https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm

Of the 100 jobs with the largest growth in Oregon, 40 have above-average earnings, and 30 of these 40 require postsecondary education.

Registered nurses

General and operations managers

Accountants and auditors

Computer programmers

Business operations specialists, all other

Computer network architects

Market research analysts, marketing specialists

Computer & information research scientists

Software and web developers

Managers, all other

Lawyers

Management analysts

Computer & information systems managers

Physicians and surgeons, all other

Physical therapists

Elementary school teachers

Financial managers

Computer occupations, all other

Real estate brokers

Software developers, systems software

Civil engineers

Sales managers

Cost estimators

Marketing managers

Wholesale and manufacturing sales rep’s, technical and scientific products

Industrial engineers

Massage therapists

Secondary school teachers, except special and career/technical education

Construction managers

Medical and health services managers

Salary Range: $53,000-$143,000Median income for all employed Oregonians: $48,100

Oregon Coast CC

Postsecondary finance data

WOU

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, Oregon, Fiscal 2000-2017

Do

llars

Pe

r F

TE

Pu

blic

FT

E

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2017 Report,” http://www.sheeo.org/sites/default/files/project-files/SHEEO_SHEF_FY2017_FINAL.pdf

$7

,13

0

$7

,54

4

$6

,73

0

$6

,26

1

$5

,60

3

$5

,46

5

$5

,70

9

$5

,77

8

$6

,07

5

$5

,68

4

$4

,90

8

$4

,52

5

$4

,05

3

$4

,13

6

$4

,57

8

$5

,06

1

$5

,83

9

$5

,95

9

$4

,87

4

$4

,21

8

$4

,34

7

$4

,73

5

$5

,12

8

$5

,39

6

$5

,31

4

$5

,45

0

$5

,37

5

$4

,95

8

$4

,92

2

$5

,87

5

$6

,40

1

$6

,82

1

$8

,03

6

$8

,13

2

$8

,06

0

$7

,88

7

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FTE

Enro

llmen

t

Rev

enu

e p

er F

TE

Appropriations per FTE Tuition per FTE FTE

Tuition as a Percent of all Education Revenue, FY2000-FY2017

Do

llars

Pe

r F

TE

Pu

blic

FT

E

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2017 Report,” http://www.sheeo.org/sites/default/files/project-files/SHEEO_SHEF_FY2017_FINAL.pdf

41%

57%

20%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

OREGON

WICHE

Change in Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, from 2007-2017

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

6%

17%

21%

31%

31%

33%

36%

36%

38%

46%

52%

54%

61%

67%

75%

86%

Montana

North Dakota

Wyoming

South…

Alaska

Washington

New Mexico

Idaho

Utah

Oregon

Nevada

WICHE

California

Colorado

Hawaii

Arizona

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000State average cost of tuition and fees at public 4-year institutions

2007-08 2017-18Percent Increase

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, 2017-18

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$5,217

$6,776

$6,835

$6,838

$6,921

$7,245

$7,411

$7,439

$8,187

$8,709

$9,328

$9,527

$9,660

$10,439

$10,601

$10,719

$11,219

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

WYOMING

UTAH

MONTANA

GUAM

NEW MEXICO

IDAHO

NEVADA

ALASKA

NORTH DAKOTA

SOUTH DAKOTA

WICHE

CALIFORNIA

WASHINGTON

OREGON

HAWAII

COLORADO

ARIZONA

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Two-Year Institutions, 2017-18

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$1,380

$1,748

$2,180

$2,598

$3,208

$3,209

$3,739

$3,761

$3,787

$3,846

$3,960

$4,038

$4,194

$4,304

$4,539

$4,627

$5,074

$7,168

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000

CALIFORNIA

NEW MEXICO

WICHE W/ CALIFORNIA

ARIZONA

NEVADA

WYOMING

WICHE W/O CALIFORNIA

UTAH

MONTANA

HAWAII

IDAHO

COMM. NO. MARIANAS

GUAM

WASHINGTON

COLORADO

NORTH DAKOTA

OREGON

SOUTH DAKOTA

Debt BurdenAverage Loan Amount for Bachelor's Recipients, 2007 vs. 2016

Adapted from The Institute for College Access and Success, “Project on Student Debt,” http://www.ticas.org/posd/map-state-data-2016#. Adjusted to 2016 Dollars using CPI downloaded from: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

$22,704 $27,321

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

Class of 2007 Class of 2016

Oregon Coast CC

Taking a longitudinal view

PSU

31

Is postsecondary education delivering on its promise of mobility?

Nationally, 82% of students from the top quartile of family income

earn a Bachelor’s degree, compared with just 9% of students from the bottom income quartile

[President Ed Ray, 2018].

In Oregon, students who qualify for Free or Reduced Lunch in K-12 are one third as likely to earn a degree

as students who don’t [Oregon Learns, 2016]

The degree of income segregation across American colleges is

comparable to income segregation across neighborhoods in the

average American city [Equality of Opportunity Project,

2017]

The HECC’s strategic focus on student success

ChemeketaChemeketa CCClackamas CC

Student and finance data, in summary…

There are major gaps between our current attainment rates and state goals, especially for the Middle 40 and for underrepresented communities.

The recession-induced enrollment boom resulted in significant increases in the number of degrees and certificates awarded by Oregon public institutions over the last decade, especially to underrepresented minorities.

Success rates for students at Oregon public institutions are slowly increasing, but a very sizable proportion of enrollees do not complete.

The “pipeline” (ie HS graduates) for new post-secondary students is not projected to significantly expand, although its diversity will.

Nation-leading increases in per-student state appropriations and tuition revenues at Oregon public institutions have improved institutional funding, but not yet to the national average and not at pace with cost pressures.

33

Common institutional strategiesCultivate non-traditional students (adult, online) and new markets (out-of-state, international)

Improve communication of brand value, and marketing to Generation Z

Reboot tuition strategies

Academic transformation: eg revamped gateway courses, lower textbook costs, innovations in teaching

Increase retention and completion rates

Build the donor base

34From Hanover Research, “Trends in Higher Education 2018” and

The Chronicle of Higher Education, “The Future of Learning” (2018)

35

Intersections with the HECC

• How does the HECC promote, inhibit, and shape institutional strategies?

• How does the HECC directly empower individual Oregonians?

To advance its vision of opportunity, attainment, and equity…

HECC strategic action areas

• Through advanced data analysis, evaluation, and reporting, HECC will build public and institutional commitment to meeting achievement goals and closing equity gaps.

Reporting

• HECC will develop an approach to state funding for higher education and workforce that is directly linked to student success.Funding

• HECC will promote clear onramps to education and training, reduce barriers for transfer students, and link graduates with careers.Pathways

• HECC will develop a comprehensive outreach plan to ensure all Oregonians have access to affordable, relevant options for postsecondary education and training.

Outreach

36From the HECC Strategic Framework, December 2017

And ways of doing it?

• Communicating the value of post-secondary education.

Voice

• Elevating political and public support for post-secondary education. Advocacy

• With moral purpose, articulating a set of values and expectations for post-secondary education in Oregon.Leadership

37

38

In view of the HECC’s responsibilities, opportunities, and 2017-21 strategic directions …

• How can we elevate equitable student success?