strategic asia 2003–04 - National Bureau of Asian · PDF fileNBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources. ... Japan 4,936.0 5,291.7 5,680.6 5,647.7 2 2 ... • Strategic Asia’s

1414 NE 42nd Street, Suite 300Seattle, Washington 98105 USA206-632-7370

restrictions on use: This PDF is provided for the use of authorized recipients only. For specific terms of use, please contact <[email protected]>. To purchase the print volume in which this chapter appears please visit <http://www.nbr.org> or contact <[email protected]>.

strategic asia 2003–04

fragility and crisis

Edited by

Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg with Michael Wills

© the national bureau of asian research

Indicators

Strategic Asia by the Numbers

Strategic Asia by the Numbers • 487

STRATEGIC ASIABY THE NUMBERS

The 16 pages that follow contain tables and figures generated fromNBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources. This comprehensive data-base is available online, free of charge, at <http://strategicasia.nbr.org>. Thedata contained herein provide insights into the economic, demographic, andmilitary trends that are reshaping the strategic environment in the AsiaPacific. This appendix consists of six sections devoted to the followingindicators: economic growth, globalization and trade, foreign direct invest-ment, population growth, energy consumption, defense (including defenseexpenditures), military capabilities, and weapons of mass destruction.

Each section shows data for the top 15 countries in Northeast, South-east, South, and Central Asia by a relevant measure (e.g., size of theeconomy, total value of exports, population, etc.), as well as that same datafor Australia, Russia, and the United States. Source details for each indica-tor shown are listed in the endnotes beginning on page 504.

The Strategic Asia database contains additional data for all 37 coun-tries in Strategic Asia. It provides in one place authoritative, up-to-date,and strategically significant data for the years 1990 to 2002. The StrategicAsia database gives users unprecedented access to this information and thetools with which to manipulate, download, and tabulate it. A fuller descrip-tion of the database is contained in the preface on pages xii-xiv.

The information for Strategic Asia by the Numbers was compiled by Strategic Asiaresearch assistants Jonathan Acuff, Neil Beck, and Allison Clark.

488 • Strategic Asia 2002–03

Strategic Asia—EconomiesChina’s rapid economic growth is singular in its size, continuity, and po-tential. China’s economy, now one-fifth the size of Japan’s, will continueits relative growth unless Tokyo undertakes long-needed reforms. MostSoutheast Asian states have recovered from the 1997–98 Asian financialcrisis. Russia’s economy has grown for each of the past four years, butgrowth in the Central Asian states remains weak.

• Economic power continues to concentrate in Northeast Asia.• India’s economy continues to grow in size, although at a moderate

pace that lags behind that of other regional states.• Southeast Asia’s growth is slackening in the current global slowdown.• Russia’s official GDP is still one-third lower than its 1990 level, but

its economic outlook is good.

1. Gross Domestic Product

GDP ($bn constant) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2001 1990 2001

Northeast Asia

China 396.4 700.2 1,041.2 1,117.2 4 3

Hong Kong 107.3 139.2 164.6 164.8 11 11

Japan 4,936.0 5,291.7 5,680.6 5,647.7 2 2

South Korea 341.6 489.3 617.5 639.2 5 4

Taiwan 160.2 265.0 309.4 … 8 8

Central Asia

Kazakhstan 32.5 19.9 22.5 25.5 16 18

South Asia

Bangladesh 30.6 37.9 48.9 51.5 17 16

India 274.4 353.2 467.3 492.5 7 5

Pakistan 48.4 61.2 71.2 73.2 15 15

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 138.4 202.1 209.2 216.2 9 9

Malaysia 56.5 88.8 111.6 112.1 13 12

Philippines 66.6 74.1 88.2 91.2 12 14

Singapore 53.9 83.4 114.4 112.0 14 13

Thailand 111.1 168.3 171.5 174.6 10 10

Vietnam 13.6 20.2 29.0 31.0 18 17

Other Powers

Australia 318.1 375.8 451.6 469.2 6 6

Russia 543.7 337.7 359.6 377.6 3 7

United States 6,525.3 7,338.4 8,986.9 9,013.9 1 1Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; IMF, World Economic Outlook; IMF, Inter-national Financial Statistics; Central Bank of China (Taipei), Financial Statistics.


2. GDP Growth and Inflation

GDP growth (%) Inflation (%)

1990-94 1995-99 2000-02 1990-94 1995-99 2000-02

Northeast Asia

China 10.7 8.8 7.7 10.4 5.2 0.4

Hong Kong 5.3 2.2 5.3 9.3 4.0 -2.8

Japan 2.2 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.4 -0.8

South Korea 7.5 5.0 6.2 7.0 4.4 3.0

Taiwan 6.8 5.8 1.9 3.9 2.0 0.4

Central Asia

Kazakhstan -8.5 -1.0 11.5 ... 49.8 9.1

South Asia

Bangladesh 4.7 5.0 6.2 4.9 6.0 3.3

India 4.9 6.4 4.7 10.2 8.9 4.0

Pakistan 4.5 3.4 3.5 10.5 8.9 3.5

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 8.0 1.7 4.1 8.6 20.4 9.3

Malaysia 9.3 5.2 4.3 3.8 3.5 1.6

Philippines 1.9 1.9 3.7 11.1 7.9 4.5

Singapore 9.3 6.2 4.1 2.9 1.0 0.7

Thailand 9.0 1.5 3.2 4.8 5.1 1.3

Vietnam 7.3 7.5 6.8 ... 5.1 0.6

Other Powers

Australia 2.4 4.4 2.9 3.0 2.0 4.0

Russia -8.8 -1.2 7.0 ... 74.7 19.3

United States 2.2 3.8 2.2 3.6 2.4 2.6Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; IMF, World Economic Outlook; IMF, Inter-national Financial Statistics; Central Bank of China (Taipei), Financial Statistics.


Strategic Asia—Globalization and TradeGlobalization is in full swing across Strategic Asia. Almost all the majortrading nations increased their dependence on trade during the 1990s, inmost cases at considerable rates. This trend began to slow in 2001, in largepart due to the global economic slowdown. The United States and Japancontinue to be the most preferred markets for Strategic Asia’s exporters,although China and Singapore are increasingly important in their region.

• Strategic Asia’s most significant exporters (in terms of volume oftrade) are located almost exclusively in Northeast Asia.

• Southeast Asia’s economies are the most trade-dependent in the re-gion, and thus the most vulnerable to slow world economic growth.

• South Asia’s trade performance lags behind the rest of the region.• Russia’s trade is focused predominantly on European markets.

3. Importance of Trade

Trade as share of GDP (%) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2001 1990 2000

Northeast Asia

China 31.9 45.7 49.1 49.2 12 12

Hong Kong 260.1 303.2 295.4 282.5 2 2

Japan 19.8 16.8 20.1 20.3 15 18

South Korea 59.4 61.9 86.5 83.5 7 9

Taiwan ... 94.6 106.6 96.1 ... 7

Central Asia

Kazakhstan ... 82.5 108.2 95.0 ... 6

South Asia

Bangladesh 19.9 27.9 37.7 37.7 14 14

India 17.2 25.6 30.5 29.1 16 16

Pakistan 38.9 36.1 34.3 37.4 9 15

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 49.1 54.0 74.1 73.7 8 10

Malaysia 147.0 192.1 229.6 214.3 3 3

Philippines 60.8 80.5 106.5 96.7 6 8

Singapore 361.2 340.5 339.6 325.4 1 1

Thailand 75.8 90.4 125.4 126.5 5 4

Vietnam 81.3 74.7 112.5 111.5 4 5

Other Powers

Australia 33.5 39.8 45.6 ... 11 13

Russia 36.1 52.2 68.6 61.0 10 11

United States 20.6 23.5 26.2 ... 13 17Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; Ministry of Economic Affairs (Taipei); IMF,International Financial Statistics.


2. Export Partners

Exports Export destinations (top three partners in 2001

($bn) 2001 with percentage share of total exports)

Northeast Asia

China 266.1 U.S. (20%), Hong Kong (17%), Japan (17%)

Hong Kong 190.9 China (37%), U.S. (22%), Japan (6%)

Japan 383.6 U.S. (30%), China (8%), South Korea (6%)

South Korea 151.3 U.S. (21%), China (12%), Japan (11%)

Taiwan 122.9 U.S. (23%), Hong Kong (22%), Japan (10%)

Central Asia

Kazakhstan 8.9 Russia (20%), Italy (11%), China (8%)

South Asia

Bangladesh 6.1 U.S. (30%), Germany (10%), Britain (8%)

India 44.5 U.S. (21%), Britain (6%), Germany (5%)

Pakistan 9.1 U.S. (24%), UAE (8%), Britain (7%)

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 57.4 Japan (21%), U.S. (15%), Singapore (11%)

Malaysia 88.0 U.S. (20%), Singapore (17%), Japan (13%)

Philippines 31.2 U.S. (28%), Japan (16%), Netherlands (9%)

Singapore 122.5 Malaysia (17%), U.S. (15%), Hong Kong (9%)

Thailand 63.2 U.S. (20%), Japan (15%), Singapore (8%)

Vietnam 15.0 Japan (17%), Australia (8%), U.S. (8%)

Other Powers

Australia 63.7 Japan (20%), U.S. (10%), South Korea (8%)

Russia 101.9 Germany (10%), Italy (8%), U.S. (7%)

United States 721.8 Canada (22%), Mexico (14%), Japan (8%)

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics; Central Bankof China (Taipei), Financial Statistics; Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook.


Strategic Asia—InvestmentWith few exceptions, Asian countries were not significantly more depen-dent on foreign direct investment (FDI) at the end of the 1990s than theywere at the beginning of the decade. The high levels of investment growthof the early 1990s slowed—and in some notable cases declined—in thelatter half of the decade. The United States, Japan, and Western Europe aregenerally the largest sources of FDI in Strategic Asia.

• China has emerged as the most favored destination for internationalcapital worldwide and attracts the largest share of FDI in Asia by far.

• For Southeast Asia, the loss of FDI following the Asian financial crisisis compounded by China’s increasing attractiveness to investors.

• Indonesia in particular continues to struggle to attract investment, andexperienced net outflows of FDI in 2001 and 2002.

5. Importance of Investment

FDI as share of GDP (%) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2001 1995 2002

Northeast Asia

China 1.0 5.1 3.6 3.8 3 5

Hong Kong ... ... 38.1 14.1 - 1

Japan 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 16 16

South Korea 0.3 0.4 2.0 0.8 14 11

Taiwan ... ... ... ... ... ...

Central Asia

Kazakhstan ... 4.8 7.0 12.3 4 2

South Asia

Bangladesh 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 15 15

India 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 13 12

Pakistan 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.7 10 13

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 1.0 2.2 -3.0 -2.3 7 17

Malaysia 5.3 4.7 4.2 0.6 5 14

Philippines 1.2 2.0 1.7 2.5 8 7

Singapore 15.2 10.6 5.8 10.1 2 3

Thailand 2.9 1.2 2.8 3.3 9 6

Vietnam 0.2 11.3 4.2 4.0 1 4

Other Powers

Australia 2.6 3.2 3.0 1.2 6 9

Russia 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 12 10

United States 0.8 0.8 3.1 1.3 11 8Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.


6. Origins of FDI

FDI inflows Origins of FDI (leading partners in 2001 with

($bn) 2001 percentage share of total inward investment)

Northeast Asia

China 44.2 Hong Kong (34%), Virgin Is. (12%), U.S. (10%)

Hong Kong 22.8 China (40%), Netherlands (10%), Britain (10%)

Japan 6.2 U.S. (37%), Netherlands (15%), France (14%)

South Korea 3.2 EU (29%), U.S. (19%), Japan (16%)

Taiwan 4.1 U.S. (17%), EU (13%), Japan (10%)

Central Asia

Kazakhstan 2.8 U.S. (36%), Britain (17%), Italy (13%)

South Asia

Bangladesh 0.1 Norway (19%), U.S. (17%), Singapore (14%)

India 3.4 Mauritius (16%), U.S. (7%), Japan (4%)

Pakistan 0.4 Britain (40%), U.S. (40%), Saudi Arabia (7%)

Southeast Asia

Indonesia -3.3 Britain (37%), Japan (20%), Netherlands (12%)

Malaysia 0.6 U.S. (38%), Japan (15%), Netherlands (11%)

Philippines 1.8 U.S. (24%), Japan (20%), Netherlands (12%)

Singapore 8.6 U.S. (51%), Japan (21%), France (5%)

Thailand 3.8 U.S. (35%), Japan (24%), Britain (18%)

Vietnam 1.3 Netherlands (32%), Britain (28%), Taiwan (13%)

Other Powers

Australia 4.4 U.S. (28%), Britain (23%), Japan (8%)

Russia 2.5 U.S. (21%), Cyprus (19%), Netherlands (12%)

United States 130.8 Switz. (42%), Germany (23%), Netherlands (12%)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators; other sources (Asian Development Bank,UNCTAD; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).


Strategic Asia—PopulationDespite lower population growth rates relative to other countries in theregion, China—the most populous country in the world—looks set to re-tain this distinction for the immediate future. South Asia has the highestrates of population growth in Asia, and India’s population is closing in onChina’s. India’s population cohort aged 0–14, for example, is growing at amuch faster rate than the same cohort in China.

• Japan’s slow population growth rate brought it from 6th to 8th placein the region during the 1990s. Aging is also a major concern.

• Russia’s population and average life expectancies have shown re-markable declines in the course of the decade.

• Rapid population growth in Pakistan caused the South Asian country’spopulation to surpass that of Russia as of 2000.

7. Population

Population (m) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

Northeast Asia

China 1,138.9 1,206.0 1,262.5 1,279.2 1 1

Japan 123.5 125.3 126.7 127.1 6 8

South Korea 42.9 45.2 47.3 48.0 12 12

Central Asia

Uzbekistan 20.6 22.8 24.8 25.6 14 16

South Asia

Afghanistan 14.7 21.5 25.9 27.8 18 14

Bangladesh 109.9 119.2 130.4 135.7 8 7

India 841.7 922.1 1,002.7 1,034.2 2 2

Nepal 19.3 21.9 24.7 25.9 15 15

Pakistan 114.0 126.6 141.6 147.7 7 5

Southeast Asia

Burma 38.5 40.2 41.8 42.3 13 13

Indonesia 188.0 205.6 224.1 231.3 4 4

Malaysia 17.5 19.6 21.8 22.7 16 17

Philippines 64.3 71.7 79.7 83.0 10 9

Thailand 55.3 58.9 62.4 63.6 11 11

Vietnam 66.6 73.2 78.5 80.6 9 10

Other Powers

Australia 17.0 18.1 19.2 19.5 17 18

Russia 148.1 148.1 146.0 145.0 5 6

United States 250.1 266.6 282.3 287.7 3 3Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.


8. Population Growth and Life Expectancy

Population growth rate (%) Life expectancy (yrs)

1990 2000 2002 1990 2000 2002

Northeast Asia

China 1.5 0.9 0.9 69 70 71

Japan 0.3 0.2 0.2 79 81 80

South Korea 1.1 0.9 0.9 70 73 74

Central Asia

Uzbekistan 1.5 1.4 1.6 69 70 63

South Asia

Afghanistan 2.3 2.6 3.4 43 43 47

Bangladesh 2.0 1.7 1.5 55 61 60

India 2.0 1.8 1.5 60 63 63

Nepal 2.5 2.4 2.2 54 59 58

Pakistan 2.5 2.4 2.1 59 63 61

Southeast Asia

Burma 1.1 1.2 0.6 57 56 55

Indonesia 1.8 1.6 ... 62 66 ...

Malaysia 3.0 2.4 ... 71 73 ...

Philippines 2.2 1.8 ... 65 69 ...

Thailand 1.8 0.8 ... 69 69 ...

Vietnam 2.2 1.3 ... 67 69 ...

Other Powers

Australia 1.5 1.1 ... 77 79 ...

Russia 0.4 -0.5 ... 69 65 ...

United States 1.1 1.2 ... 75 77 ...Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.


Strategic Asia—EnergyThroughout Asia, energy consumption levels showed consistent growththroughout the decade. Monumental shifts are now underway in the energyconsumption and production patterns, particularly in Northeast Asia andthe Russian Far East. Rapid economic growth in China, Taiwan, and SouthKorea has led to almost doubled consumption levels.

• Oil will remain the primary energy source for most economies becausemuch of the energy demand is driven by the transportation sector.

• China was the world’s third largest consumer of petroluem in 2002,and will likely surpass Japan in petroleum consumption in 2003.

• Major extraction projects (oil and natural gas) are underway in the Rus-sian Far East (Sakhalin) and Siberia.

• Japan and South Korea are the world’s largest LNG importers.

9. Energy Consumption

Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2001 1995 2001

Northeast Asia

China 27.0 35.2 37.0 39.7 2 2

Japan 17.9 20.8 21.8 21.9 4 4

North Korea 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 9 11

South Korea 3.8 6.6 7.9 8.1 6 6

Taiwan 2.0 2.9 4.0 4.1 10 9

Central Asia

Kazakhstan ... 2.0 1.6 1.7 12 15

Uzbekistan ... 1.9 1.9 2.1 13 13

South Asia

India 7.8 11.1 12.7 12.8 5 5

Pakistan 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.9 14 14

Southeast Asia

Indonesia 2.3 3.3 4.1 4.6 8 8

Malaysia 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 15 12

Philippines 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 17 17

Singapore 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 16 16

Thailand 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 11 10

Vietnam 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 18 18

Other Powers

Australia 3.7 4.1 4.8 5.0 7 7

Russia ... 28.2 27.4 28.2 3 3

United States 84.6 91.5 99.3 97.0 1 1Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.


10. Oil Supplies and Reserves

Oil supply in 2002 (m bbl/d) Proven oil reserves

Product. Consum. Imports (bn barrels and main fields)

Northeast Asia

China 3.4 5.3 1.9 18.3 (Daqing, Shengli)

Japan <0.1 5.4 5.3 <0.1

North Korea 0.0 <0.1 ... ...

South Korea ... 2.1 ... ...

Taiwan 0.0 1.0 1.0 <0.1

Central Asia

Kazakhstan 0.9 0.1 ... 9.0 (Tengiz, Karachaganak)

Uzbekistan <0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 (Kokdumalak, Shurtan)

South Asia

India 0.7 2.0 1.2 5.4 (Bombay – offshore)

Pakistan <0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 (Dhurnal, Fimkasser)

Southeast Asia

Burma 1.1 1.2 0.6 <0.1

Indonesia 1.3 1.0 ... 5.0 (Duri, Minas, Belida)

Malaysiaa 0.7 0.4 ... 3.0 (Bekok, Bokor)

Philippines <0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2

Thailanda 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 (Gulf of Thailand)

Vietnam 0.3 0.1 ... 0.6 (Back Ho, Rang Dong)

Other Powers

Australiaa 0.6 0.8 0.2 3.5 (Roller, Skate)

Russiaa 7.4 2.4 ... 48.6 (Samotlor, Romashkin)

United States 9.1 19.7 10.4 22.4 (Texas, Alaska)Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Notes: a) Data for Malaysia,Thailand, Australia, and Russia are 2001 estimates.


Strategic Asia—DefenseWith few exceptions, defense spending has fallen in Strategic Asia since1990 as a share of GDP. Russia, the United States, China, and Vietnamhave reduced their number of military personnel significantly, but trooplevels in South Asia and much of Southeast Asia have risen modestly overthe course of the decade. The largest militaries in Strategic Asia remainconcentrated in Northeast and South Asia.

• Russia’s proportionate military spending continues to decline, mirror-ing deep manpower reductions and economic restructuring.

• Despite ongoing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, both proportionatemilitary spending and aggregate troop levels have declined.

• Despite a reduction in manpower of nearly one-third over the past 12years, the Chinese military has become the largest in the region.

11. Manpower

Armed forces (thousands) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

Northeast Asia

China 3,030 2,930 2,340 2,270 2 1

Japan 219 240 235 238 13 13

North Korea 1,111 1,128 1,082 1,082 5 4

South Korea 750 633 683 651 7 6

Taiwan 400 378 370 370 9 9

Central Asia

Kazakhstan ... 40 64 60 ... 17

South Asia

Bangladesh 104 116 137 137 15 15

India 1,262 1,145 1,303 1,298 4 3

Pakistan 550 587 612 619 8 7

Sri Lanka 65 125 113 158 17 14

Southeast Asia

Burma 230 288 344 344 12 10

Indonesia 283 275 297 297 10 12

Philippines 109 107 106 106 14 16

Thailand 283 259 301 306 10 11

Vietnam 952 557 484 484 6 8

Other Powers

Australia 68 56 51 51 16 18

Russia 3,096 1,339 817 677 1 5

United States 2,118 1,547 1,366 1,414 3 2Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance.


12. Defense Expenditure

Def. exp. as share GDP (%) Def. exp. as share CGE (%)

1990-94 1995-99 2000-02 1990-94 1995-99 2000-02a

Northeast Asia

China 5.2 5.7 4.0 31.3 25.3 ...

Japan 1.2 1.0 1.0 5.1 6.4 ...

North Korea 25.5 17.9 12.2 ... ... ...

South Korea 3.8 3.3 2.8 19.7 14.0 ...

Taiwan 5.0 4.9 4.7 31.8 27.6 ...

Central Asia

Kazakhstan ... 2.1 1.3 ... 6.3 ...

South Asia

Bangladesh 1.8 1.9 1.5 10.4 9.8 ...

India 2.8 3.0 3.0 12.8 14.6 ...

Pakistan 7.2 6.2 4.2 27.6 26.2 ...

Sri Lanka 5.0 5.7 5.2 12.5 18.3 ...

Southeast Asia

Burma 9.7 7.5 2.6 71.7 122.3 ...

Indonesia 1.4 2.0 0.5 7.8 7.0 ...

Philippines 1.8 2.1 1.7 10.7 8.0 ...

Thailand 3.0 2.1 1.9 16.8 10.8 ...

Vietnam 7.0 ... 7.3 11.0 11.4 ...

Other Powers

Australia 2.2 2.0 1.9 9.5 8.6 ...

Russia 8.0 5.8 4.3 29.7 24.0 ...

United States 4.6 3.6 3.2 16.8 16.4 ...Sources: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance; Department of State,World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers. Notes: a) No data available for 2000–02.


Strategic Asia—Conventional Military ForcesOver the past 12 years, Strategic Asia has seen significant arms build-ups.China, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan have enhancedtheir land warfighting capabilities. Despite the substantial increases in Japa-nese and, at a more modest level, Thai naval capabilities, the decline of theRussian navy means that the United States is now the only power with boththe mission and capabilities to project bluewater naval power.

• The sharp upswing in both Indian and Pakistani land warfare capabili-ties reflects the ongoing tension in South Asia.

• There has been a massive increase in relative U.S. air power, whichhas been brought to bear effectively in Afghanistan and Iraq.

• Although Russia has declined in every metric of military power, thesharpest drop has been in its naval and submarine warfare capabilities.

13. Land Warfare Capabilities

Tanks, APCs/LAVs, Artillery (th) Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 30.9 32.6 31.4 35.4 3 3

North Korea 28.5 23.8 25.6 25.0 4 4

South Korea 13.5 15.3 15.7 15.8 5 5

India 9.1 9.4 11.5 13.5 6 6

Pakistan 4.4 6.5 6.1 7.1 7 7

Vietnam 4.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 8 7

Russia 222.6 80.3 75.2 77.8 1 1

United States 70.4 58.2 41.8 52.6 2 2Sources: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance; Federation of Ameri-can Scientists.

14. Air Warfare Capabilities

Fixed-wing aircrafta Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 5,150 5,100 3,283 2,301 3 3

Japan 457 560 413 536 8 6

North Korea 746 515 582 592 5 5

South Korea 469 433 507 533 7 7

India 1,023 1,182 1,074 1,030 4 4

Taiwan 506 423 570 479 6 8

Russia 6,927 6,592 4,457 2,870 1 2

United States 6,119 4,682 3,962 5,621 2 1Sources: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance; Federation of Ameri-can Scientists. Notes: a) Includes interceptors and ground-attack aircraft.


15. Naval Warfare Capabilities

Principal surface combatants Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 148 139 146 147 3 2

Japan 77 74 121 111 4 3

South Korea 49 55 54 55 6 5

Taiwan 60 59 55 54 5 5

India 47* 44* 45* 34* 7 7

Thailand 15 19 25* 30* 8 8

Russia 364* 198* 66* 56* 2 4

United States 402* 271* 262* 189* 1 1Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance; Federation of Ameri-can Scientists. Asterisk (*) denotes possession of aircraft carriers.

16. Submarine Warfare Capabilities

Submarines Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 92* 50* 64* 68* 3 2

Japan 15 15 16 16 6 6

North Korea 24 25 26 26 4 4

South Korea 3 3 20 20 8 5

India 19 15 16 16 5 6

Pakistan 6 9 10 10 7 8

Russia 242* 138* 43* 40* 1 3

United States 91* 82* 55* 54* 2 1Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance; Federation of Ameri-can Scientists. Asterisk (*) denotes possession of strategic submarines.


Strategic Asia—Weapons of Mass DestructionAlthough the START treaties slashed overall U.S. and Russian strategicweapons inventories, Strategic Asia has experienced persistent prolifera-tion of nuclear technologies, and has the world’s highest concentration ofnuclear weapons. During the 1990s, both Pakistan and India openly joinedthe nuclear club, while North Korea, in violation of the 1994 Agreed Frame-work, has also developed nuclear weapons and wthdrawn from the NPT.

• North Korea has dramatically increased the number of SRBMs andMRBMs in its possession.

• The increase in Chinese ICBMs has been considerable, although Chinamaintains a no first-use policy and does not keep them on alert status.

• Russia is scheduled to destroy its CBW inventories, but most analystsbelieve it clandestinely maintains these programs to some extent.

17. Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear warheads Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 400? 480? 480? 410? 3 3

Japan 0 0 0 0 ... ...

North Korea 0 ? ? 2? ... 6

South Korea 0 0 0 0 ... ...

India 0 0 40-200 40-200 ... 4

Pakistan 0 ? 40? 40? ... 5

Russia 33,515 15,615 10,544? 10,331? 1 1

United States 20,684 11,226 8,876 8,789 2 2Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; International Institute of Strategic Stud-ies, The Military Balance; Federation of American Scientists.

18. Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs

Chemical and/or biological weapons Ranka

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2001

China prob prob prob prob 3 4

Japan � � [�] [�] 5 6

North Korea prob prob prob prob 4 3

South Korea � � � � 6 7

India ... ... [�] [�] ... 5

Pakistan prob prob prob prob 7 8

Russia � � � � 1 1

United States � � [�] [�] 2 2Table shows confirmed (�) and probable (prob) programs; [�] indicates stocks are being de-stroyed. Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Center for Nonproliferation Stud-ies; Federation of American Scientists. Notes: a) Ranking by number, type, and weapon system.


19. Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

SRBMs, MRBMs and IRBMs Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 66? 70 324? 485? 3 2

Japan 0 0 0 0 ... ...

North Korea 69 30 320? 566? 4 1

South Korea 12 12 12 12 5 6

India 0 ? 44? 86? ... 5

Pakistan ? 18? 122? 144? 6 4

Russia 1,610 600 200 200 1 3

United States 164 0 0 0 2 ...Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; International Institute of Strategic Stud-ies, The Military Balance; Federation of American Scientists.

20. Long-Range Ballistic Missiles

ICBMs and SLBMs Rank

1990 1995 2000 2002 1990 2002

China 14 19 32? 32 3 3

Japan 0 0 0 0 ... ...

North Korea 0 0 ? ? ... ...

South Korea 0 0 0 0 ... ...

India 0 0 0 0 ... ...

Pakistan 0 0 0 0 ... ...

Russia 2,514 1,413 1,168 967 1 2

United States 1,624 982 982 982 2 1Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, International Institute of Strategic Stud-ies, The Military Balance; Federation of American Scientists.


Endnotes1 Gross Domestic Product—Table shows GDP in 1995 constant dollars. GDP

for Taiwan is shown in 1990 constant dollars. Source: World Bank, World De-velopment Indicators, 2003 CD-ROM; CBC, Financial Statistics, Taipei: Cen-tral Bank of China, various editions.

2 GDP Growth and Inflation—Table shows annual average rates of GDP growthand inflation. Data for some countries over certain periods is partial. Sources:World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003 CD-ROM; IMF, World Eco-nomic Outlook, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2003; IMF,International Financial Statistics, 2003 CD-ROM; CBC, Financial Statistics,Taipei: Central Bank of China, various editions.

3 Importance of Trade—Table shows value of trade as a percentage share of GDP.Data for some countries over certain periods is partial. Sources: World Bank,World Development Indicators, 2003 CD-ROM; Ministry of Economic Affairs(Taipei); IMF, International Financial Statistics, 2003.

4 Export Partners—Table shows value of exports and leading export destina-tions with percentage share of total exports. Sources: IMF, International Fi-nancial Statistics, 2003 CD-ROM; IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, Wash-ington, DC, International Monetary Fund, 2002; CBC, Financial Statistics,Taipei: Central Bank of China; CIA, World Factbook, Washington, DC: Cen-tral Intelligence Agency, 2002.

5 Importance of Investment—Table shows value of foreign direct investment asa percentage share of GDP. Data for some countries over certain periods ispartial. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003 CD-ROM.

6 Origins of FDI—Table shows value of foreign direct investment and leadingorigins of FDI. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003CD-ROM; other sources (Asian Development Bank, UNCTAD, U.S. Bureauof Economic Analysis).

7 Population—Table shows size of population. Source: World Bank, World De-velopment Indicators, 2003 CD-ROM.

8 Population Growth and Life Expectancy—Table shows annual populationgrowth rate and average life expectancy at birth (for both males and females).Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, CD-ROM.

9 Energy Consumption—Table shows primary energy consumption (includingpetroleum, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind,and wood and waste power). Source: Department of Energy, Energy Informa-tion Administration, International Energy Annual 2001.

10 Oil Supplies and Reserves—Table shows oil production, consumption, andimports (millions of barrels per day), plus proven oil reserves (billions ofbarrels) and names of major oil fields. Source: Energy Information Admini-stration, Country Analysis Briefs, various reports.

11 Armed Forces—Table shows active duty military personnel only. Source: IISS,The Military Balance, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London:Oxford University Press, various editions.

12 Defense Expenditure—Table shows annual average rate of defense spendingas a share of GDP and as a share of central government expenditures. Sources:


IISS, The Military Balance, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Lon-don: Oxford University Press, various editions; U.S. Department of State, WorldMilitary Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 2003.

13 Land Warfare Capabilities—Table shows the total of all tanks, light armoredvehicles, armored personnel carriers, and artillery with main guns larger then90 mm. Sources: IISS, The Military Balance, International Institute of Strate-gic Studies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions; Federation ofAmerican Scientists <www.fas.org/man/index.html>.

14 Air Warfare Capabilities—Table shows the total of interceptors and groundattack aircraft. Sources: IISS, The Military Balance, International Institute ofStrategic Studies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions; Federa-tion of American Scientists <www.fas.org/man/index.html>.

15 Naval Warfare Capabilities—Table shows capital ships and other ocean-goingcombat vessels. Asterisks indicate those countries possessing aircraft carriers.Sources: IISS, The Military Balance, International Institute of Strategic Stud-ies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions; Federation of Ameri-can Scientists <www.fas.org/man/index.html>; Haze Gray and Under Way,World Navies Today <www.hazegray.org/worldnav/>.

16 Submarine Warfare Capabilities—Table shows the total number of attack andspecial operations submarines. Asterisks indicate those countries possessingstrategic submarines. Sources: IISS, The Military Balance, International Insti-tute of Strategic Studies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions;Federation of American Scientists <www.fas.org/man/index.html>; Haze Grayand Under Way, World Navies Today <www.hazegray.org/worldnav/>.

17 Nuclear Weapons—The tables show an amalgam of data drawn from a varietyof sources and do not represent a consensus among analysts. There are oftenwide disparities in estimates of the number of nuclear weapons, even for theUnited States and Russia (estimates for Russia, for example, range from 8,250to 10,331). Sources: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Nuclear Notebook <www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nukenote.html>; Carnegie Endowment for In-ternational Peace <http://ceip.org>; Federation of American Scientists <www.fas.org/nuke/index.html>; Center for Nonproliferation Studies <http://cns.miis.edu>; Nuclear Threat Initiative <www.nti.org>; IISS, The Military Bal-ance, International Institute of Strategic Studies, London: Oxford UniversityPress, various editions.

18 Chemical and Biological Weapons—Symbols in the table indicate: � = Con-firmed existing chemical or biological weapons program and/or weaponizedagents; [�] = Chemical and/or biological weapons stockpile in the process ofdisposal; and “prob” = Likely chemical and/or biological weapons program,including questionable dual use facilities. Rankings are based on numbers andtypes of weapons and delivery systems. Sources include: Federation of Ameri-can Scientists <www. fas.org/nuke/index.html>; Center for NonproliferationStudies <http://cns.miis.edu>; IISS, The Military Balance, International Insti-tute of Strategic Studies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions.

19 Short Range Ballistic Missiles—Table shows numbers of short-range, medium-range, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Sources: Carnegie Endowmentfor International Peace <http://ceip. org>; Federation of American Scientists


<www.fas.org/nuke/index.html>; Center for Nonproliferation Studies <http://cns.miis.edu>; IISS, The Military Balance, International Institute of StrategicStudies, London: Oxford University Press, various editions.

20 Long Range Ballistic Missiles—Table shows numbers of intecontinental andsubmarine-launched ballistic missiles. While Japan and South Korea have nomissiles in their possession or in development, assets from their space pro-grams could be converted to military use. There is considerable debate regard-ing the maximum range of North Korea’s ballistic missiles: some analysts claimthat these could reach the continental United States, others argue that their rangeis much less. Sources: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Nuclear Notebook <www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nukenote.html>; Carnegie Endowment for In-ternational Peace <http://ceip.org>; Federation of American Scientists <www.fas.org/nuke/index.html>; Center for Nonproliferation Studies <http://cns.miis.edu>; Nuclear Threat Initiative <www.nti.org>; IISS, The Military Bal-ance, International Institute of Strategic Studies, London: Oxford UniversityPress, various editions.

Documents

strategic asia 2003–04 - National Bureau of Asian · PDF fileNBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources. ... Japan 4,936.0 5,291.7 5,680.6 5,647.7 2 2 ... • Strategic Asia’s