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Anglo-American UniversitySchool of International Relations and Diplomacy
Can the Federal Republic of Nigeria Become an Electoral Democracy?
Bachelor’s Thesis
September 2013 Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso
Anglo-American University
School of International Relations and Diplomacy
Can the Federal Republic of Nigeria Become an Electoral Democracy?
by
Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso
Faculty Advisor: Professor Pelin Ayan Musil
A Thesis to be submitted to Anglo-American University in partial satisfaction
of the requirement for the degree of
Bachelor
in
International Relations
I
September 2013 Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso
Statement of originality
I hereby declare that no portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree, or qualification thereof, or for any other university or institute of learning.
I declare that this thesis is my independent work. All sources and literature are cited and included.
I also hereby acknowledge that my thesis will be made publicly available pursuant to Section 47b of Act No. 552/2005 Coll. and AAU's internal regulations.
Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso
II
ABSTRACT
Can the Federal Republic of Nigeria Become an Electoral Democracy?
by
Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso
The Federal Republic of Nigeria has been coping with the transition to democracy since
its independence in 1960. Until now the country was not successful to become democratic.
Therefore, I have asked the question, whether Nigeria can become an electoral democracy or
if it is a hopeless case. To specify the terms of transition to democracy, I used Rustow’s
theory of transition to democracy, and defined electoral democracy with Schumpeter’s
minimalist concept, then to further understand the socioeconomic factors influencing
democracy, I used Lipset’s modernization theory. To be more specific in the socioeconomic
factors I chose to examine exploitation of oil because oil is Nigeria’s main profit, which
counts for 70%. In order to answer my research question, I travelled to Nigeria to do a field
research. I was able to go to the national archive to read through documents. Sadly, I was not
allowed to take notes but the information directed me to a certain path of what to look at. I
committed three interviews one with Odugbesen Aluko who is a local employee of Shell for a
long time, with Ijeoma Okonkwo who is an inhabitant living in the Niger Delta region, and
then with Ololajulo Jide who is an employee of the Colonial Museum and who provided
historical materials, and helped me to overcome the difficult situations of Nigerian history.
Finally I have taken some pictures to see Nigeria as it really appears to people who go there.
My findings were that Nigeria cannot become an electoral democracy because of exploitation
of oil, and weak natural resources governance which cause lack of socioeconomic
development which is according to Lipset important to democratize. Then, my conclusions
III
drawn from Rustow’s transition to democracy were that Nigeria cannot democratize also
because of its national disunity which is caused by ethnic diversity and tensions.
IV
Table of Contents:
1. Introductiona. Aim of the Studyb. Methodologyc. Findings and Argumentsd. Roadmap
2. Theoretical Conceptualization of Electoral Democracya. Definition of Electoral Democracy b. Theory of the Transition to Democracy c. Summary
3. Historical background of Nigeria a. Colonial era b. Independence Period
i. First Republic ii. First Military Coup
iii. Second military Coup iv. Second Republic v. Third Military Coup
vi. Third Republic c. Evaluation
4. Socioeconomic factorsa. Modernization Theory b. Measurement of Socioeconomic Factors c. Exploitation of Oild. Evaluatione. Dependency Theoryf. Dependency on the Coreg. Evaluation: Impact on the democratic development
5. Conclusiona. Lessons Learnt from Nigeria: A Case of Impossible Transition? b. Weaknesses of the Studyc. Future Prospects and Implication
V
Introduction
Aim of the Study
This research paper aims at providing arguments and findings on the question of
whether the Federal Republic of Nigeria can or cannot become an electoral democracy. The
main objective is to stress the importance of natural resources exploitation and understanding
the connection to democratization. In this attempt, the research identifies and discusses
interconnected themes among these two topics. Moreover, I use Schumpter’s electoral
democracy conceptualization, Rustow’s transition to democracy theory, and Lipset’s
modernization theory to understand whether Nigeria’s situation can lead to democracy. Also,
I use Immanuel Wallerstein’s world systems theory to show how dependent Nigeria is on its
natural resources.
Justification of the Study
This study is important because it connects natural resources exploitation with
democratization which is not researched as much as other cases of democratization. Africa’s
resource endowment is significant, and ongoing discoveries, especially as in the case of oil on
the West African coast, are further reinforcing the importance of the entire continent to global
resource politics. Indeed, by 2015 the United States estimates that one-quarter of its oil supply
will come from Africa; second, natural resources conflicts are increasingly important because
of the significant role they play in the affairs of the region, especially as they relate to
governance and the activities of the civil society; third, some African’s natural resources are
now being linked to a number of global security concerns, including money laundering and
alleged links with terrorism. Therefore, if Nigeria and other countries in a similar or same
situation would democratize, the rule of law would prevent civil wars, exploitation, and other
1
security concerns. This single case of the Federal Republic of Nigeria could be generalized
and used for other oil rich, or natural resources wealthy countries. Also, this study is
important because the modernization theory was adjusted to fit Nigeria’s case.
Findings and Arguments of the Study
In this research paper I aimed at answering the question whether Nigeria can or cannot
become an electoral democracy. According to the theories I used, Schumpter’s electoral
democracy definition, Rustow’s transition to democracy theory, Lipset’s modernization
theory, and finally Wallerstein’s world systems dependency theory, my finding was that
Nigeria is a hopeless case of becoming an electoral democracy because: first, Nigeria is not
nationally united because of the creation of a state with various ethnic groups which compete
between each other, which is the main condition to a successful democracy, then due to
several military coups Nigeria also does not have the tradition of democratic rule; second,
exploitation of oil in Nigeria slows down the socioeconomic development by losing profits
which could be invested in the future development of Nigeria and by creating conflicts
between the government and the citizens; third, exploitation of natural resources affects the
democratization process of the country because there is lack of socioeconomic development,
on the other hand if Nigeria was a democratic state exploitation of natural resources would not
be possible thanks to human rights protection, rule of law and law enforcement. In this circle I
found out that although Nigeria is a wealthy country thanks to its natural resources reserves, it
has high financial growth, and according to Lipset’s theory it could eventually become a
democracy. Yet, there must be a certain economic development within the country which
benefits all, not only an elite group. As Nigeria does not fulfill all these conditions I argue that
it is a hopeless case of a democracy transition.
2
Methodology
In this research I used a single case of Nigeria because Nigeria is considered to be one
of the book examples of the paradox of plenty. I therefore disagree with this study as I want to
prove that natural resources are not a curse but rather it is the fault of the leadership of the
country which proves to be inefficient in the governance of natural resources. This study
made use of several books and journals as secondary sources to understand the concepts of
transition to democracy, historical background of the country, and exploitation of natural
resources in Nigeria. Sometimes though, I found varying information in different statistics for
example about the population growth, corruption and so forth. Many of the secondary sources
proved to be very useful even though the conclusions drawn from them were in contradiction
with one another. I also analyzed official government web sites. The statistics and other
information were found to be not true, according to the statistics and information provided by
the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations.
Since I had the possibility to go and visit the country, I was able to read through some
documents of the national archive, unfortunately I was not allowed to take notes there, but it
definitely helped me to get the right track of what to research. This field research also enabled
me to read local newspapers and understand the way Nigerian people see exploitation of
natural resources. In the appendix I include some pictures from the Niger Delta region. The
pictures show us how devastated the region is and in which kind of living conditions people
are. Compared to the main financial centre, Lagos, where there are no oil discoveries, the
Niger Delta region is very poor. Finally, I have visited the main office of Shell in Nigeria and
had a conversation with an employee that had been working there since the Abacha
dictatorship. I used some information provided by the person because they were nowhere else
to be found and also it was the person’s personal experience. Another interview I had with an
3
inhabitant of the Niger Delta region. He told me about how the oil exploitation is affecting
people’s everyday life.
Roadmap of the Study
This research has three chapters which provide us through the findings and arguments
that answer my research question, whether or not the Federal Republic of Nigeria can become
an electoral democracy. The first chapter gives us the definition of an electoral democracy by
Schumpeter, and Rustow’s transition to democracy theory. Schumpeter’s conceptualization
says that an electoral democracy is a democracy in which citizens’ votes for groups that
compete for the political leadership. Further, Rustow’s theory has several phases which go
through the transition of democratization. The first is national unity which is the background
condition and also the most important one. Then, the preparatory phase consists of conflicts
between the main groups which want to contest over the leadership of the country. Next, the
decision making and the habituation phases in which cooperation between the main groups
which contest over the country leadership is important. Rustow also points out that these
phases must follow after each other in the same order for the transition to be successful.
The second chapter provides information about Nigeria’s history and also history of
economic development. In this chapter my main objective is to apply Rustow’s transition to
democracy theory. We will see that the British established a state of various ethnic and
religious groups which hated each other because of the rivalry that was created during the
slave trade. The British ruled the country with an authoritarian regime but thanks to that the
rivalry dropped because the Nigerians had a common enemy – the British. When the colonial
era ended the conflicts between the ethnic groups appeared again. Nigeria therefore was not
from the beginning completely nationally united according to Rustow’s theory. The first
republic collapsed after civilian politicians had conflicts with each other and corruption and
nepotism ruled the politics of Nigeria. Two military coups which brought along an ethnocide
4
of the Igbo population ended after a long period of negotiations. After these transitions from
civil government to a military one the country experienced two other transitions like that,
meaning that Nigeria never came to the phase of decision and habituation phase.
The third chapter is about socioeconomic factors. In this chapter I use Lipset’s
modernization theory which tells us about the importance of economic and social
development of the country, in order for it to have a successful transition to democracy. In
connection to the socioeconomic development, I argue that exploitation of natural resources,
such as oil in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is a very important factor which hugely
influences the socioeconomic development of the country because Nigeria’s profits from oil
decreases and profits international companies. Furthermore, I use the case of the Niger Delta
which is highly populated, polluted by multi-national corporations, and also the region is very
poor because the government does not provide any compensation for the pollution of the
environment. Therefore, inhabitants of this region started attacking these multi-national
corporations’ offices and buildings and started vandalize them. Due to the people of the Niger
Delta are poor they also started stealing oil from the pipelines, refined it in local refineries and
sold it to foreign ships in the port. In this chapter I also try to show that Nigeria is dependent
on oil exportation and so the country is dependent on those countries that buy the oil from it.
To understand the dependency I use Wallerstein’s world system theory which explains how
the world as a capitalist unit consists of three main parts, the core, the semi-periphery, and
periphery. Nigeria as a country with characteristics of the core and the periphery belongs to
the semi-peripheral countries, which means that Nigeria is still dependent on the core
countries for capital and export of oil. On the other hand, Nigeria is the regional military
power and an oil power which all countries in West Africa need as an oil supplier.
5
Chapter I: Theoretical Conceptualization
The aim of this chapter is to outline the two main theories which this thesis aims to use
in explaining why Nigeria is a very difficult case of democratic transition. The chapter will
give the definition of an electoral democracy based on Schumpeter minimalist
conceptualization, in order to understand what electoral democracy is, and I will try to trace
the preconditions of democracy on the African continent with Rustow’s concepts of transition
to democracy, in order to understand whether Nigeria could eventually in the future become a
electoral democracy or not. This chapter will help me to understand why countries like the
Federal Republic of Nigeria still struggle with the transition to democracy and also, in
connection to that, with the economic development. What conditions make democracy
possible and what conditions make it thrive? That is a question which is asked by Dankwart
Rustow in the beginning of his article Transitions to Democracy (337). It is even harder to
find out the preconditions and conditions to make democracy work in developing countries of
Africa, such as Nigeria.
Definition of Electoral Democracy
To define an electoral democracy I will use the minimalist conceptualization of
Schumpeter which says that “the democratic method is that institutional arrangement for
arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a
competitive struggle for the people’s vote” (Schumpeter 1947, 9). Differently said, people
only vote to give power to those who are capable enough to rule the country. The opposition
of the winning government then controls its actions and in case of the winning party misusing
6
the power the opposition can confront them. On the other hand, I am aware of the weaknesses
of electoral democracy which Terry Karl calls it the “fallacy of electoralism” (Diamond 1999,
33). The fallacy of electoralism privileges elections over other democratic values and ignores
the exclusion of a huge part of the population (Diamond 1999, 33). Therefore, Terry Karl
reminds us that, “ however central to democracy, elections occur intermittently and only allow
the citizens to choose between the highly aggregated alternatives offered by political parties,
which can, especially in the early stages of a democratic transition, proliferate in a
bewildering variety” (Diamond 1999, 33). In other words, in electoral democracies some
people, especially the poor or ethnic and religious groups, might not get the possibility to
exercise their democratic rights.
Transition to Democracy
Rustow gives us three main conditions in four phases which lead to democracy. They
are the background condition - national unity, preparatory phase- conflict, and the decision
and habituation phase in which cooperation is very important. As I will elaborate on these
later, I would like to stress that these three stages of transition to democracy are in developing
countries in Africa very poor, especially the national unity part and the part of cooperation.
Therefore, we have seen many African countries which became democracies during the third
wave of democratization going back to authoritarian or military regimes. On the other hand,
Lipset argues that there is a close relationship between democracy and economic growth
which is not stressed in Rustow’s conceptualization (1994, 16). Though, he points out that
transition to democracy is not a uniform process and that there might be various ways to
democracy (Rustow 1970, 345). Thus, I argue that once the three stages of transition to
democracy are at its process there must be a certain level of economic growth to fully develop
in to a democracy because economic growth allows the creation of the middle class and
various groups that can in the conflict part challenge the government. Moreover, democracy
7
supports economic development because it usually has a market free economy and the state
does not intervene as much so, it is more efficient. In other words as Lipset concludes, “the
more well-to-do a country, the greater it will sustain democracy.
Firstly, Rustow starts his model with a single background condition which is national
unity (1970, 350). National unity in this sense can be either based on a personal identity in the
psychological way or in a political sense which is citizenship. Therefore, in order to have a
democracy we need the majority of people to believe that they belong to the same political
community. This must precede all other steps to democracy and most importantly, the
composition of citizenship must be continuous. Democracy is a rule of majority, where the
leadership of majorities change with time and thus it is important for the political community
to sustain during the time, in order to have the possibility to change them. Rustow stressed
that it does not matter how national unity is established. He states that they might not be any
sense of national unity because of geographical differences or I would add, which is
especially true in African countries, ethnic and religious differences (1970, 351). There are
several hypothesis proposed by Rustow such as unification of an administrative process or
national unity being a by-product of a belief in social communication developed for the
purpose (1970, 351). In African countries these hypothesis were not affirmed because even
though they were unified during the colonial era by an administrative process, they were not
fully integrated in the system because of ethnic and religious differences. In Nigeria
especially, the three main ethnic groups, which are Igbo, Yoruba, and Hausa, were always
competing with each other and did not want to let anyone else rule over one another.
Therefore, as one of those groups got into power they did not want to leave office because
they could control the resources and power of the country. Because Nigeria is not nationally
unified, the first precondition of transition to democracy, according to Rustow, is not met.
8
Secondly, the preparatory phase which consists mainly of conflict between various
groups. Rustow argues that in order to achieve the democratization process there must be
some forces that would set it off. These forces could be for example social classes, which are
typical in this stage, that have a certain belief which is worth fighting for (meaning push
forward) in the political struggle. As Rustow puts it, “such a struggle is likely to begin as the
result of the emergence of a new elite that arouses a depressed and previously leaderless
social group into concerted action” (1970, 353). For the emergence of a new elite or another
stronger class there must be to some extent economic and/or social development because
these classes do not emerge from nowhere. That is where Lipset with the modernization
theory fills the very important part for African states. He claims that socio-economic
development is a precondition to democracy. Even Przeworski points out that democracy in
countries with a low per capita income, if it is ever established, can survive only for a short
period of time (1999, 16). More about the modernization theory will be discussed in the
second chapter on socio-economic factors influencing Nigeria’s democratic transition.
This preparatory phase of democracy can take a lot of time; therefore, polarization is
more likely to appear than pluralism. Moreover, an important role plays the concept of
national unity because if national unity does not exist or it is week it will not be strong enough
to continue and establish democracy. Then, if the parties that enter the struggle together are
based on regional differences division is more likely to appear. And, there must be a balance
of powers which does not allow the other party to get rid of the other one. As Rustow says, “If
the division is on sharply regional lines, secession rather than democracy is likely to result”
(1970, 355). Thus, crosscutting cleavages have their place in this stage. On the other hand,
during this stage many things can go wrong. The whole political struggle may continue and
continue till all the issues of disagreement just fade away without any appearance of
democracy in sight. Or, a party finds a way of how to destroy their opponents faster than any
9
democratic solutions come into existence. Conflicts appeared in Nigerian history a lot,
especially talking about the military take over after the first two republics. Always some
groups with different interests clashed and tried to get more power than the opposition but
because the national unity was not strong, the groups always remained in conflict.
Thirdly, the decision phase aims at institutionalizing diversity. What Rustow means by
institutionalizing diversity is that political leaders should, in this stage, make a deliberate
decision to accept diversity in unity. Also, the leaders should agree and decide on some
democratic procedures. Democracy though, cannot be established until the background and
preparatory conditions are met (Rustow, 1970, 356). The decision to build a democratic
regime, might be proposed and refused, which will lead to the continuation of the preparatory
phase of conflict, or again it will disappear without any democratic outcome. Thus, what
matters at this stage is not what leaders believe in but the most important is which way they
decide to take to establish democracy. The decision phase should be a time of consensus. But
as Rustow suggests, during the decision phase democracy is only a compromise which all
parties involved agree on but to all the parties it is just the second choice and “it will not
represent any agreement on fundamentals” (Rustow 1970, 357). Furthermore, there is still
going to be a continuing struggle because of differences, and preference. Lastly, the
agreement, which leaders make are not universal at all. In order to establish a working
democracy, the belief of building it has to be transmitted to the citizens of the country. If that
is successful, then, there is a last step to achieve democracy which is the habituation phrase.
When the third republic was established there was a certain decision taken to have free and
fair elections and to establish a constitution on democratic grounds which everyone agreed on.
Therefore, Nigerian politicians took a decision which they try to maintain until the habituation
phase, but due to the national unity is not as strong and conflicts prevail, it is not clear
whether Nigeria will continue to the habituation phase.
10
Lastly, the habituation phase is a process of Darwinian selectivity (Rustow 1970, 358).
One selection is among the opposing parties and the other for the leadership among
politicians. But politics as such is not only a struggle to win the most votes, it is also a process
of conflict solving between various groups. Therefore, people are taking joint chances on how
to cope with the unknown future. The habituation phrase should show that the decision which
was taken by the leaders was the right decision. How we know that a decision was right is
easy to answer. Democracy has to be efficient in principles such as conciliation and
accommodation (Rustow 1970, 358). Therefore, it is necessary to succeed in facing various
major questions which will strengthen the democratic procedures. But it is very important
than each country finds its own way of how to democratize the country. If countries try to
copy each step which was made by democracies in the past, it will not work as they wish
because each country has gone through different experiences in the past, there is a different
culture, religion, and understanding of political issues might be different too. Even Western
democracies are facing issues about communities because the leaders think that the
democratic process of conflict will solve it but it surprisingly does not. As Rustow rightly puts
it, there is no middle way between languages, religion, and other. Meaning that there is not a
half English and half Igbo language, or there is not mix Islam and Christianity. On the other
hand, democracy was very successful in handling the problems containing economic and
social character because there can be a compromise made. The difficulty that democracies
face in solving the community problems are traced back to the background condition because
that one is the most important one, the concept of national unity must prevail.
The habituation phase is the last step to democracy because, firstly, politicians and
citizens learn how to act in a democratic system, and by making it work they must allow
participation of various ideas from various groups in the affairs so that more participants have
a bigger faith in the success of achieving it. In other words, “in the early decades of the new
11
regime, a wide variety of political tendencies can participate in the conduct of affairs, either
by joining various coalitions or by taking turns as government and opposition” (Rustow 1970,
360). Secondly, politicians will learn democratic techniques and contest in a competitive
recruitment which will confirm the path they decided on. And thirdly, the citizens will fill in
the part of the whole structure by creating links of party organization in order to connect the
wide electorate with the leadership of the country (Rustow 1970, 360). These kinds of new
party organizations can possibly be a continuation of those parties that have gone through all
the phases, the preparatory, the conflict, and the decision phase. On the contrary, it is possible
that none of the party gains enough power, resources, and popularity among voters. But “even
under such conditions, as Rustow claims, of partial democratization of the political structure,
a competitive dynamic that completes the process may have been set off” (Rustow 1970,
361).
Summary
In conclusion, Rustow presents us the model of the path to democracy which has four
phases, the background phase, the preparatory phase, the decision phase, and finally the
habituation phase which provide us with three main conditions, national unity, conflict, and
cooperation. These phases must be strictly going after one another because each phase has its
own role in the creation of democracy, as protagonists of these phases play an important role
in each of them. These protagonists are especially important in the second phrase, the conflict
phase because at this stage there is a need for a stronger class. This stronger class does not
appear from nowhere and therefore there is place for other factors which strengthen the
process. These factors are, according to Lipset, social, economic, and religious. The socio-
economic part is very important because it enables a new class to emerge. A class that could
become a new country’s elite which is strong enough to disagree with the government and
remove it, therefore this class takes actively part in everyday politics.
12
Then, I also defined electoral democracy which allows me to face Nigeria’s problems
in a political point of view through socio-economic factors. I defined electoral democracy on
the bases of Schumpter’s minimalist conceptualization which says that electoral democracy
should be a regime where the voters get the power to elect the government which competes
for each vote. Those parties that were not elected should in theory control the ruling party,
and if the party does not satisfy the electorate it will be removed from power in the next
elections. The opposition parties should not overthrow the elected government because they
would have to expect the same during their electoral period. Thus, they have more
opportunities to be in power in the long-term future. These conceptualizations of democracy
will be applied on the Federal Republic of Nigeria where I will try to research if Nigeria is
capable of becoming an electoral democracy in the future and, by doing so can the country
face its problems with exploitation of natural resources and conflicts which emerge in the
country.
Chapter II: Historical BackgroundThis chapter aims at providing information about the historical background of the
Federal Republic of Nigeria. This information will help us to understand why Nigeria can or
cannot become an electoral democracy through historical experience and traditions. This
chapter is organized in the following order: The first section describes the periods when the
Western coast of Africa was discovered and how it led to the waves of colonization which
caused economic, social, and political problems for the later development of the modern state.
The second section examines the independence period and the time of military coups
changing to the three republics which will show us Nigeria’s path to democratic transition
through Rustow’s conceptualization of national unity, conflict, decision making, and
cooperation. Finally, the last section reviews the recent decades which show that the country
still faces socioeconomic challenges which are the cause why Nigeria cannot get to a certain
13
stage of democracy transformation. As Lipset’s argues, Nigeria’s case shows that it is
necessary to have a certain stage of socioeconomic development to reach democracy which
will, at the same time, help to develop the country through effective institutions and rule of
law.
Colonial era
The time Europeans discovered the West African coast, they started taking advantage
of the ethnic conflicts in the area where now Nigeria is. During the tribal wars, stronger tribes
captured people from other tribes and sold them to Europeans who were waiting in built
fortresses on the coast. The dirty work was mostly done by Africans and thus Europeans did
not have to go to inland to capture their own slaves. Chiefs of the stronger tribes got thanks to
the trade very rich because they got money, alcohol, and weapons which they could sell or
with the weapons capture more slaves (Sir Burns 1972, 78). European companies got wealthy
too through transporting African slaves to America where there was not enough labor for
mining. Competition and animosity between tribes still prevails until today as the
consequence of the slave trade which caused rapid slow down of the socio-economic
development because all the resources that were used to fight one another could have been
used for the development of cities, villages, and communities (Klima 2003, 16). Therefore,
during the time when modern European states were created, Africans did not have any bigger
entity than a village in which the life standard and education was very low and the
productivity and efficiency of agriculture too (Olojajulo 2013). After the slave trade was
abandoned by the British, they wanted to exploit other resources Africa had because the
United Kingdom just went through the industrial revolution and they needed more natural
resources to develop faster. They tried to intrude into inland of West Africa but they were not
welcomed and many of them were killed or died because of unknown diseases (Olojajulo
2013).
14
The first successful British that got into inland and were not killed by African tribes or
various diseases were Lander brothers who explored the Niger delta from 1830 to1834 (Klima
2003, 18). In this period, they found out that the slave trade among African tribes did not fully
disappear and there Christianity should play an important role for people to behave better to
each other. In 1849, John Beecroft was appointed British consul of the Benin gulf which
meant that Nigeria entered a period of British superiority (Klima 2003, 23). Different
commodities were being exported such as palm oil, precious woods, and ivory. Unequal
treaties were made in order for the British to have more profits from those commodities and
local people were still living in poverty (Isichei 1983, 220). During the 1860’s, the British
changed their perception about colonialism, they did not want to be only trading but they
wanted to exploit the country, because their industry was growing and they needed more and
more natural resources and cheap labor force (Klima 2003, 24). Thanks to the conflicts
Africans had between each other the British were able to get more influence on a bigger
territory. In the mid-1890’s, the British created several protectorates around the oil rivers
which is now called the Niger delta (Ololajulo 2013). The first protectorate was the
Protectorate of Southern Nigeria which was created by uniting the Colony of Lagos and the
Niger Coast Protectorate, and Protectorate of Northern Nigeria unified many tribes in the
north of today’s Nigeria. These two were later unified and the Protectorate of Nigeria created.
The British were able in a relatively short period of time effectively capture a large territory in
which hundreds of ethnic groups who spoke different languages and had different beliefs
lived together. The British were willing to save some money on administrative expenditures
and therefore employed local elites who wanted to cooperate with the British and were
pursuing their interests (Klima 2003, 24). Thanks to these elites the British were able to rule
over the huge territory with only a few people. The huge complex of a mixture of ethnicities
and beliefs was later compared to a time bomb.
15
In 1920, the National Congress of British West Africa met (Sir Burns 1972, 240). The
main aim was to discuss the increase of Africans in public administration. This call from
journalists, lawyers, and doctors for a political change was heart and confirmed in the new
Clifford Constitution of 1922, which allowed 10 African members of the Parliament out of 46
to take part in the legislative body (Klima 2003, 29). These members of the Parliament had
little influence on the legislative body and thus, the legislature was able to pass laws which
were again only in British interest. Taxes that the legislature passed were too heavy for the
state and people raised against them in the years 1927-1928 (Klima 2003, 29). On the
contrary, thanks to the taxes the British were able to invest in the coastal territories, built big
cities, modernized them, and placed the whole production there (Sir Burns 1972, 131-132) .
After the great crash of 1929, the Great Depression hit Africa too. The British were
exporting many things from Nigeria such as palm oil, cocoa, and natural resources such as oil
but during the Great Depression the exports were monopolized and the prices of the exported
goods were just set by the others (Klima 2003, 30). The development was very unequal.
Investment in some parts remained but in other parts it decreased and thus stayed
underdeveloped. The part which was mainly developed was the area around Lagos and Lagos
itself. The port was modernized so that the British could export goods faster and more
efficiently, and also the infrastructure was developed along with the railway (Sir Burns 1972,
135).
During the whole era of colonialism the revenues flowed mostly to Lagos and
Africans believed that once the colonialists leave the country the country would become
wealthy and so would the people living there (Klima 2003, 31). Unfortunately, their
expectations were exaggerated and African politicians were not ready to overtake the
developing economy and also parliamentary democracy the British created. However, because
the British parliamentary democracy was artificially established and was rather an
16
authoritarian system than democracy, it did not have any tradition in the country, so after they
left there was lack of tolerance of free opinion, no free media, and lack of tolerance of
opposition (Sir Burns 1972, 135). The new elites that got to govern the country understood the
political power as living a luxury life, with no responsibilities. The political culture in Nigeria
did not have any elegance and often used violence to get what they wanted (Klima 2003, 33).
An important factor was also a quite high illiteracy which prevented many people to get
involved into politics (Ololajulo 2013). This problem still prevails in Nigeria, politicians are
still irresponsible and very corrupt; the literacy got with time better but there are still many
people, especially those from the countryside and older generations, who have only
elementary education (Alao 2007, xii – xiii).
Even though the British established new modern cities such as Lagos, they created a
country of three different ethnic groups which believed they have the right to have its own
state, in which they would rule themselves under their laws. Therefore, the country was never
completely united. Rustow claims that any conflict that is based on ethnic divisions would
undermine democratic transition. Thus, when the British left Nigeria as a colonial power, they
left behind a weak civilian state full of ethnic divisions and tensions, which also gave wave to
the several following military interventions after the first republic was established. If Nigeria
was at the time when the British left the country already united, they would create a strong
state which is, according to Rustow, the precondition to democratization.
Independence
First Republic
The Federal Republic of Nigeria was given full independence on October 1st, 1960
from the United Kingdom under a constitution which provided for a parliamentary democracy
that was advised by the British. The federal government had the monopoly on defense,
biggest say in foreign affairs, and in economic management of the country. The political
17
parties that emerged though were representing not various ideologies, ideas, or opinions but
they were created on the ethnic backgrounds (Isichei 1983, 406-408). The parties were: the
Nigerian People’s Congress (NPC) which was the representative party of the Northern,
Muslim, mostly Hausa population that was rather conservative; then, National Convention of
Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) which mostly represented the Igbo and Christian population of the
South; and lastly, the Action Group (AG) which was the supported of the Yoruba ethnic
group living mainly in the West of the country (Isichei 1983, 410).
In October 1963, Nigeria proclaimed itself as the Federal Republic of Nigeria, with the
first president being Nnamdi Azikiwe. The first republic had an optimistic future as the
manufacturing industry was developing. There were huge resources of oil found and still new
were being discovered. The Federal Republic of Nigeria started being an exporter of oil and
did definitely not expect that during the 1970’s will become one of the biggest oil-power in
the world and one of the most important members of OPEC (Alison-Madueke 2013). With
this positive development, Nigeria expected a high flow of investment in the country so that it
can industrialize faster and create more working possibilities for the huge population.
However, Nigeria was a federation, which included different religious beliefs,
traditions, and most importantly ethnic groups, which hated each other since the start of the
slave trade, and later because of that Nigeria was compared to a time bomb that could explode
any time. The major ethnic groups which were influencing their region only supported and
protected the interests of their ethnicity. High officials were promoting also only people of the
same ethnicity and those of minority ethnic groups or nationalities were left out (Alao 2007,
1). Nepotism and corruption were booming which stayed rooted in the political system until
now. Many Nigerians were not satisfied with the development of the first republic because in
the beginning the leadership was promising better living conditions and more jobs but none of
those promises were fulfilled. The whole situation became even worse when the prices of
18
cocoa, which Nigeria exported in huge amounts, rapidly decreased (Klima 2003, 44). The
main officials were enjoying luxury life but ordinary people were suffering. The leadership
could not blame the colonial era for everything that was happening and nobody would even
believe it and thus, there emerged several strikes and demonstrations against the government.
In 1964, there was even a general strike that aimed at getting rid of foreigners but an
economic miracle did not happen (Isichei 1983, 405). Due to there was no stability and
several conflicts appeared the foreign investment started decreasing because the foreign
investors were reluctant to invest in a place that is not stable.
In December 1964, everyone was expecting the elections. The political parties which
were taking part in the independence elections were competing in different coalitions because
the Southern Igbo Party, the NCNC, could not cooperate with the Northern Party, NPC. A
new coalition of the NCNC and the AG was created which stood against the NPC. Many other
groups joined the coalition of the Igbos and the Yorubas against the Northern part because
they felt oppressed or not represented and the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA)
was created. The North created also a coalition with supporters from all regions and the
Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) was established. During the election campaign people
could read in the newspaper quotes which were supporting the end of the federation, but also
various scandals about corruption, fraud, and intimidation (Ololajulo 2013). Members of the
UPGA in the Northern region were restricted, they were not allowed to campaigning, and
many names from the electoral register were deleted because there was suspicion that those
people would vote for another part than they “should”. As Klima (2003, 52) puts it, “the NPC
took those elections as the Holy War. The president Nnamdi Azikiwe was disgusted by what
was happening in his country and said, “So many awful things could happen in Nigeria that
the Congolese crisis would be a children’s game compared to it” (Klima 2003, 52). The fight
for power in Nigeria started, while Nigeria lost its power because of that.
19
The UGPA felt, that it has quite good chances to win the elections are being decreased
by the NNA and announced to boycott the elections in case they will not be postponed
(Isichei 1983, 410). There again Nigeria might headed to parliamentary democracy which was
recommended but the methods of democracy were still far from being used. Because many of
the opposition members did not have equal conditions, those that lost were reluctant to
recognize the winner. This issue is the most important in Schumpeter’s conceptualization of
electoral democracies and Nigeria in this case was absolutely not successful. The elections
were boycotted partly in the end which concerned most of the Igbo population. The whole
political situation got worse during the year 1965 and the many conflicts had bloody ends.
More and more people had the feeling that politics and negotiation could not solve the
problem anymore and that a stronger power will have to intervene. The most authoritative and
organized power was the army (Isichei 1983, 469).
First Military Coup
In the night of January 14th to 15th, 1966 the military decided to take over the country
(Klima 2003, 55). The operation was highly synchronized and took part in the federal capital,
Lagos, and in the capitals of the regions, Enugu, Ibadan, and Kaduna. The military’s aim was
to break the influence of the civilian politicians who did not lead the country according to the
constitution. The new political leader became major general Johnson Ironsi. Ironsi was an
experienced soldier but to be a politician he lacked education and diplomacy. He was ruling
Nigeria according to several decrees. The decree number 34 was the one that was the
beginning of hard times. The decree stated the federal should be replaced by a unitary statute
(Isichei 1983, 471). That meant, that Nigeria will become a centralized country and the
government in each of the regions will not have as much power. Of course that disturbed
especially the Northern region because they wanted to be more independent not more
20
dependent. The North was annoyed that many Igbo people were occupying high politics posts
and that they are establishing a new majority army elite. The Northern officials took the
January military coup as an attempt for the Igbo hegemony. Several days after the publication
of the 34th decree, Northern warlords started mass murdering of the Igbo population in the
North (Isichei 1983, 472). Many Igbos living there were running away to the South because of
that and the population in the South-East raised.
Second Military Coup
The second military coup happened in the early morning on July 29th, 1966 (Klima
2003, 58). The first target was Nigeria’s leader major general Ironsi. Many other Igbo
commissioned officers were killed that day all over the whole country. No person from the
North was killed. It was the revenge for the January military coup. While looking for a new
leader of Nigeria, the Northern region agreed on lieutenant colonel Yakubu Gowon. He was
not a Muslim but a Christian and belonged to one of the small ethnic groups in the North.
That was the reason why he should be also respected and recognized by the other ethnic
groups of the East and West. While the military was discussing the future of the federation,
the massacres on the Igbo population continued in the North (Isichei 1983, 473). More and
more people were escaping to the East and the population there was a million bigger. Even
though, the Eastern region was overpopulated people had the hope that they can start from the
beginning thanks to the wealth the South Eastern region had. It was the Igbo South Eastern
region that the rest of the federation sponged on (Isichei 1983, 473). Igbos, thus, were very
much annoyed and wanted to leave the federation because they believed they could live on
their own and not be dividing the wealth with the rest.
Lieutenant colonel Chukwuemeku Odumegwu Ojukwu who was the military governor
of the Eastern region was also a separatist (Isichei 1983, 473). He wanted his region to be
separated from the rest of the federation because of the reasons stated above such as oil
21
wealth and ethnic diversities. On May 30th, 1967 lieutenant colonel Ojukwu proclaimed the
independent Republic of Biafra. The war lasted for almost three years and more than a million
civilians died in fighting and because of famine. The famine was caused by the blockade of
the coast of Biafra so that the people living in Biafra and the soldiers will surrender earlier.
The brutal civil war in Nigeria broke out.
In the second half of 1969, Biafra was almost destroyed. Many soldiers were
exhausted and gave up. The civilians of Biafra were suffering of terrible famine and instead of
Ojukwu capitulating, he sat on a plane with his family and left Biafra behind. With bloodshed
The Federal Republic of Nigeria was unified and Biafra integrated back into the system.
Gowon was aware that with the end of the civil war the disputes must end and welcomed Igbo
people back into the federation with open arms (Isichei 1983, 474). Many people left during
the civil war to other countries and many lost houses where they lived in. There were anti-
corruption laws introduced because Gowon wanted to organize the country very well before
giving it back to the civilian politicians (Isichei 1983, 474). All these reforms would not be
put into practice if there was not an oil boom which brought a lot of wealth along. Moreover,
in the 1970’s there were new oil discoveries and the export increased which brought over 93%
of the total federal budged. More positive years followed because from 1971 to 1980 the oil
prices increased (the price of one barrel went up approximately 17times) (Klima 2003, 80).
With such an income, Nigeria could have overcome the underdevelopment of its agriculture
and start new industrial projects. However, the leaders of Nigeria, as they lived above the life
standard of all citizens, did not predict future problems with agricultural product short cuts.
As oil extraction made the country wealthy, the political leadership believed that anything
which was missing could be imported.
After Gowon was overthrown, another leader from the North was in the leading
position. Murtala Muhammad, after whom the main airport in Lagos is called, was killed after
22
200 days of his rule. One of the most important things done at the time, was the change of the
capital city from Lagos to Abuja because of two reasons (Isichei 1983, 475). Lagos was
overpopulated and it was on Yoruba land and it was impossible to move all of them
somewhere else. Therefore, Abuja was built on neutral land where there was no majority of
any ethnic group. Muhammad’s most important general was Oluseguna Obasanjo, who will
play in the future an important role in modern Nigerian history. After Muhammad’s death
Obasanjo was the one who was decided to lead Nigeria. The economy of the country
worsened a lot because there was a need to decrease oil export because the world market was
already satisfied with oil (Isichei 1983, 475). The crisis in Nigeria came also because of
neglected the agriculture, Nigeria had to be importing more food. Many farmers and their
families moved to cities because they thought they could live a better life there, so the
consequences of that were no farmers that would take care of agriculture, overpopulated cities
with no jobs and the infrastructure could not be finished because the move was too fast and
that gave basis to the establishment of huge slums around big cities such as Lagos. The only
industry in the country that was still quite developing was the manufacturing industry but in
all other industries the industry growth dropped from 27% to 10.6% (Klima 2003, 89).
Nigerian goods were not protected by any tariffs at this time. All the industries were suffering
of electricity cuts and also of lack of service and spare parts for the machines the industry
needed (Nicole Okonkwo Gattuso 2013, self-experience). Obasanjo also came up with his
government with a way how to increase agricultural production. There was a lot of money
invested in the Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) (Klima 2003, 89). This operation was
supposed to increase the sowing area, ensure good fertilizers, and tractors. The villages which
were producing mainly for themselves were supposed to be feeding the nation. Due to the
agricultural “green revolution” the country suffered a lot because of deforestration which
23
started to affect the climate (Klima 2003, 89). Especially in the North desert started getting
bigger so there was a need for irrigation systems.
Second Republic
The transition from the military government to the civil one was long expected, even
though many feared that the problems and issues that appeared in the First Republic will be
repeated. The military, on the other hand, was convinced that they already created an all
Nigerian feeling and that the next civil government will be able to make all the regions
prosper the same way (Isichei 1983, 477). Also the parties theoretically fulfilled the condition
of an all Nigerian character but in practice they copied the ethnic parties as the former parties
did. Especially three parties out of five, which symbolized the Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba
population. The leaders of these three parties were the ones who would have the chance to
become the next president. The leaders were Shagari for the North, the former president
Azikiwe from the East, and Awolowo who was representing the West. The elections were fair
and the results also corresponded with the population number (Isichei 1983, 477). The
president became Alhajim Shagari.
Sharagi was a very good politician and leader and his party’s slogan which he
promoted in the campaign was the political independence of Nigeria which should be
supported by the economic independence too. The government’s first plan was to develop
agriculture. Nigeria did not have as much profit as before and could not afford to buy as much
food which was a sixth of all the imports. Plus everyone already knew what happens if they
only rely on the oil extraction. The agricultural development was a right step at a right time
because in the 80’s the oil price dropped to 29USD per barrel and all exporters of OPEC had
to decrease the oil extraction to stabilize the prices in the world market. Nigeria had to bind
itself to extract only 1.3 million barrels a day. The profits of years 1980-1982 went down by
half (Alison-Madueke 2012). That was also the time when Nigeria got indebted, and did not
24
get rid of it until today, because the interest rate was 4% from all the export profit. Nigeria
had to be paying since that time interest rates and its loans back and could not invest the
money in its development. The federal reserve dropped to 1billion which was approximately a
tenth of the former amount (Klima 2003, 93). All the problems of the First Republic were
back. Elections were approaching and people got two possibilities, one they will vote for the
National Party of Nigeria (NPN) again, the one that won the last time with Shagari as a leader,
or they will ignore the elections and wait for the announcement of the NPN to win. The
military could not see watch the civilians to destroy what they had established before.
Third Military Coup
In 1983, on New Year’s Eve, the military took over again and had the same aim – to
create conditions to have a non-corrupted government which would look after the whole
federation and leave after the elections. Major-General Muhammad Buhari began to rule in
1984 with a New Years speech. In his speech he stressed why the military had to step for to
change the former government because they disobeyed the constitution:
“The last general election was anything but free and fair. The only political parties that could complain of election rigging are those parties that lacked the resources to rig. There is ample evidence that rigging and thuggery were relative to the resources available to the parties. This conclusively proved to us that the parties have not developed confidence in the presidential system of government on which the nation invested so much material and human resources. While corruption and indiscipline have been associated with our state of under-development, these two evils in our body politic have attained unprecedented height in the past few years. The corrupt, inept and insensitive leadership in the last four years has been the source of immorality and impropriety in our society. Since what happens in any society is largely a reflection of the leadership of that society, we deplore corruption in all its facets. This government will not tolerate kick-backs, inflation of contracts and over-invoicing of imports etc. Nor will it condone forgery, fraud, embezzlement, misuse and abuse of office and illegal dealings in foreign exchange and smuggling.” (Osewa 2011)
As in the past Nigeria has to face serious environmental problems which were
caused by foreign companies. Many people at that time said that Africa will once become a
huge dump just because it is poor and thanks to that the companies will be able to compensate
25
the people for environmental degradation. The population of Nigeria still grows fast and with
such a growth it will not be able to feed itself. Erosion, floods, pollution, deforestration,
urbanization, not enough drinking water, and climate changes might once cause serious
problems.
The next military leader became Ibrahim Babangida who succeeded after Buhari left.
Immediately, he promised that he will definitely want to give the power to the civil
government as things get better. On the other hand, military rule helped Nigeria to get out of
crisis in the past but it was not good for the citizens because they did not understand why
people should vote for something when it is much easier to order it, which meant the
democracy was under the military rule losing its value understanding in the country
In the 90’s, Nigeria was again preparing for the next transition to civil government.
Two parties were created, important to stress that they were not established by people but by
the military government which wanted to have only two strong parties, and in 1992 the Social
Democratic Party won the elections (Klima 2003, 106). That was the time when the Iron
Curtain in Europe broke down, and Apartheid in South Africa too, everyone was expecting
Africa to develop in a different way too. International financial organizations were convincing
newly established democratic governments that with freedom prosperity will come. A huge
step forward was made in transportation, and telecommunication (Klima 2003, 107). Abuja
was accepting its role as the federal capital. Media were free again. Babangida decided that he
will be the one to choose who it is going to be and his best option was Bashira Tofu, who was
a rich businessmen, who was interested in insurance and industry. What more that he was
loyal, to general Babangida. The other candidate, not chosen by Babangida, was Moshood
Abiola. He came from a very poor family but finally got into high position on ITT Nigeria Ltd
and he was very popular among people because he was doing charity and sponsoring students
(Klima 2003, 110). Babangida and the military were strongly aware that Abiola will not be
26
able manipulate and therefore they annulled the elections. The Nigerian population was very
angry because they did not understand why the elections were annulled.
The weak federation could work like that only for weeks. Thus, general Abacha
decided that the military will get to power again. Abacha was the seventh military chief of
Nigeria and he was a dictator. He never talked about giving back the rule to anyone he was
acting like he would rule forever. Instead of having freedom and democracy, Abacha brought
dictatorship. General very well knew how to use his absolute power to get what he wants and
so was it also with Shell and BP which were his main partners and did not care about
environment pollution or how people in the region suffer (Alao 2007, 6). Exploitation of oil in
the East with the help of the dictator made people so angry that they started protesting against
it. Mainly a tribe, Ogonye, had problems with oil companies which were destroying their
land. The most famous of them was Saro-Wiwa, who was also a famous writer, and he was
most hated by Abacha. In order to get rid of him, general contrived a political process in
which the result was clear already before it began, Saro-Wiwa has to die, and in 1995 died
(Ugah 2012). When Nigeria got into its worst crisis, Abacha suddenly died. After more than
ten years, jailed political figures came out and the military started a program for transition to
civil government again.
After the last military coup of Nigeria, the country still copes with ethnic divisions
which caused the fall of the first and second republic. The military coups showed how weak
the civilian state is because otherwise the army would not be able to intervene. Rustow’s
precondition is national unity which was not created during the establishment of the new state
by the British. The independence was a big challenge for the whole Nigerian population and
because each of the ethnic groups believed to be separate from the others and protected its
own people, conflicts appeared not only in the society but also in politics. Thus, because the
27
first precondition of Rustow was not met, Nigeria always goes from the stage of conflict back
to the precondition of national unity, rather than to the next step which is the decision making.
Third Republic
The elections in 1999 showed that parties can be Nigerian not depending on ethnic
characteristics. Also the legislature changed some of the laws because after years of military
rule they had to be democratized. The main concern was economy again. How to keep
inflation down while maintaining growth, and another aim was diversification of economy by
increasing the agricultural productivity. Many Nigerians blame Obasanjo for corruption and
mismanagement of Nigerian finances because there were several scandals during the period of
his presidency (Odugbesen 2013).
The Third Republic which continues until now has serious socio-economic problems
and issues which have to be managed such as inflation, debt, unemployment, unequal
development of the parts of the federation. Moreover, Nigeria became a book example of how
easy it is to mismanage the wealth a country has and stay struck in its development because of
politics. This chapter showed us how Nigeria’s history was passing and also showed us that
the country does not have a tradition to be a democracy because the civil governments always
misused their power and the military had to overthrow it. That is not in any way an electoral
democracy which says that once someone is elected the opposition accepts it and runs in the
other elections. Here, it was the case of regimes who wanted to stay in power by any means
not letting the opposition to campaign. During the colonial era the disunity of the federation
which was at that time established by the British prevailed and created several conflicts.
Rustow’s basic pillar to become a democracy is unity, in which for now Nigeria is still weak.
In the next phrase which Rustow states is conflict in which Nigeria stayed in for a long time,
especially during the period of the first republics and lastly the habituation phrase, in which
28
cooperation is very important. According to me, Nigeria has not fully gotten to this phrase yet
and therefore is still not a democracy.
Chapter III: Socioeconomic Factors
The formation of modern states in the second half of the 20th century introduced more
complex dimensions into the nature of resource politics, with issues such as newly drawn
geographical borders, protests and bloody conflicts over the forceful incorporation of different
ethnic groups into one state, and last but not least the clashes over natural resource control.
The efforts to build a strong federation between diverse groups brought along fragile social
structures, the greed of elites which took over the political leadership, and foreign companies
that took the opportunity to make huge profits from conflicts in the country (Alao 2007, 1). In
this chapter I aim at addressing socioeconomic factors which are connected to natural
resources exploitation and management by the country elites and multinational corporations.
Many people list Nigeria as a case of the paradox of plenty or resource curse and also many
Africans have this belief such as one resident of Koidu said, “We are fighting and killing
ourselves over what God gave us to make us happy and comfortable. I sometimes wonder
whether it would not be better if God takes away the endowment, and by doing so, spare us
the tragedy it has brought to our life” (Alao 2007, 1). This chapter shows that natural
resources are badly managed and allocated in Nigeria due to lack of credible administrative
structures which do not exist in most African countries and with the laws governing the
management being either contradictory or not properly corresponding with other political and
social structures which exist in the country (Alao 2007, 32). Therefore, the issues of natural
resources and the connection to socioeconomic and political issues leading to democracy are
the main issues I will discuss in this chapter. And last, I will introduce an international
29
structure which is dependent on the socioeconomic factors in the country. For that I will use
dependency theory of Wallenstein. He uses the world system dependency which shows us that
Nigeria is heavily dependent on oil export, exposing the country to the possibility of
blackmail.
Modernization Theory
According to Lipset, for the establishment of democracy there is need for a certain
social but mainly economic development. Some scholars, like Rustow, argue that
socioeconomic change is not necessary for the development of democracy but it can be one of
the parts that help democracy to be established. For Nigeria, and African countries in general,
Majority of ordinary citizens are poor or/and politically uneducated and they do not reason as
much as educated citizens who do not have to take care of everyday’s survival of their
families because they have jobs and a certain income every month (Alao 2007, 38). Lipset
cites from Barrington Moore and says, “no bourgeois, no democracy” (1994, 2). Therefore, it
is important for the peasantry in developing countries to be independent because it produces a
new middle class which “can stand up against the state and provide resources for independent
groups” (Lipset 1994, 2).
In order for the middle-class to be created the country’s economy has to be market
driven. In the late 18th century, Jefferson and Madison said, “the less the state has to do the
better; the fewer economic resources the state can directly control, the greater the possibilities
for a free polity” (Lipset 1994, 3). Though, in countries such as Nigeria, corruption and weak
governance is inherent because they are built on poverty (Alao 2007, 31). The state should
allocate resources, create jobs and reduce unemployment, and invest its capital into projects
that will in the future pay back the investment and effort; also, formulation of laws and rules
need to be done to eliminate personal networks (Lipset 1994, 3). A competitive market in the
country reduces nepotistic networks, which as I mentioned in the second chapter, are in
30
Nigeria very common. The greater the laissez-faire market, the bigger controls there will be
on occasional rent-seeking by elites in power who control resources. In many developed
countries the process to establish well-working, transparent institutions took many years, and
therefore the process of creating a reliable political spectrum in developing countries such as
Nigeria will still take many more years ahead (Lipset 1994, 3).
From the statistics of the revenue watch, Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil exporter and
world’s 10th largest oil producer, accounting for more than 2.2 million barrels a day in 2011.
The total oil revenues received $50.3 billion, generating 70% of government revenue the same
year (Revenue Watch Institute 2013). Therefore, I argue that if governance of the natural
resources revenue would be correctly allocated and natural resources not exploited there
would be more space for the creation of strong and transparent political institutions which
ensure democratic practices, more possibilities for education, better living conditions, and
probably also better results in environmental issues such as less deforestration, slower
desertification, no water contamination etc.
Measurement of Socioeconomic Factors
In order for us to know how well Nigeria performs in the social and economic sphere
we need to know how to measure them. Thus, I decided to measure the socioeconomic
development of the country with the Human Development Index (HDI) which measures
education, life expectancy, income and it ranks countries into four groups. This statistic is
great for one reason, it is the connection of the social and economic development. The
education component of the HDI is measured by years accomplished at school for people
under 25, and it measures expected years of schooling for children entering it. This data is
collected from surveys by the UNESCO Institute Statistics database and Baro and Lee
methodology. Expected years of schooling are based on enrolment age by all levels of
31
education and on how many students of official school age enter each of these various levels
of education. Expected years of school are represented at 18years. “The indicators are
normalized using a minimum value of zero and maximum values are set to the actual
observed maximum value of mean years of schooling from the countries in the time series”
(Human Development Reports 2013). Life expectancy at birth is calculated using a minimum
age of 20 years and maximum value of approximately 83 years. The wealth component is
measured by also only two numbers which were measured and the minimum income is $100
(PPP) and the maximum $87,478 again measuring countries in groups in between the two
numbers. And lastly, the measurement of the standard of living is done by the gross national
income (GNI) per capita (PPP) (Human Development Reports 2013).
Nigeria has been slightly improving in the Human Development Index since the year
2005 until recently. In the year 2005, Nigeria was rated 0.434 in the HDI but in year 2012 it
improved to 0.471, which still keeps Nigeria on the low development in HDI. What is
important to mention is that the most populated country, the biggest oil exporter, and the
regional power of West Africa got from 2008 lower numbers in HDI than were the average
numbers of the sub-Saharan HDI which was 0.432 in year 2005 and 0.475 in 2012. This HDI
Nigeria gained is putting the country on the 153rd position out of 187. Chart 1, taken from the
National Human Development Index for Nigeria, shows us four lines where red is for the HDI
measured, the blue one shows average sub-Saharan HDI, and the green shows Nigerian HDI
which started to be measured in 2005. The yellow line shows us for comparison the world’s
highest HDI which is, at least for now, absolutely incomparable (Human Development Report
2013). Even though Nigeria has a high growth rate at constant prices, the country is below the
world average in the HDI which tells us that it does not have the necessary level of
socioeconomic development, such as the middle class, which has to be part of the social
structure to become a democracy according to Lipset. And as long as the country does not
32
have a sufficient middle class which could challenge the political elite, the transition to
democracy will take longer.
CHART 1: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX: TRENDS 2005 TO PRESENT
(National Human Development Index for Nigeria)
Exploitation of oil
Exploitation of oil seriously affects the socioeconomic development in Nigeria. The
Niger Delta, which is located in the South of Nigeria, has been a huge concern for many
environmentalists, human right activists and fair trade advocates around the world. In order to
understand why the Niger Delta is getting so much attention, there is a need to explain what is
happening in this region. The Niger Delta is heavily populated by 40 various ethnic groups
speaking 260 languages. This region is oil rich and therefore it has been the victim of
exploitation by several multi-national corporations (MNCs) which heavily pollute the
environment by oil spills and oil well fires, drinking water contamination, and cause many
conflicts in the region. Among these MNC’s are Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Elf, Agip
(Elisha Bala-Gbogbo 2013). These MNC’s have been cooperating for many years with
corrupt governments which were supported by the governments of the developed world just
33
because of profits from the oil wealth the Niger Delta has and nobody was concerned about
the environment, or people who are depending on the nature to survive for example with
fishing, or relying on drinking water (Alao 2007, 6; Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs 2013). As
Anup Shah rightly says, “A series of repressive and corrupt governments in Nigeria have been
supported and maintained by western governments and oil corporations, keen on benefiting
from the fossil fuels that can be exploited. As people, and transnational oil corporations have
been fighting over this “dark nectar” in the delta region, immense poverty and environmental
destruction have resulted” (Shah 2010).
To illustrate the negative impact of existing natural resources on socioeconomic
development, here are some examples: First, Shell is one of the most active companies in the
region, contributing to human rights violations, environmental degradation, social conflicts,
and economic loses. In 2011, the United Nations Development Program published a report
which contained the environmental assessment of a part of the Niger Delta region of the
Ogoniland. It covers contaminated land, groundwater, surface water, sediment, vegetation, air
pollution, public health, industry practices and institutional issues (UNEP 2011, 8). This
assessment concludes that the cleaning up of oil pollution in this one part of the Niger Delta
would take 30 years and $1 billion to start it up. Shell has taken no action since the time the
report was published. People from these parts of Nigeria have protested against the situation
caused by the corrupt government and oil companies but the response was just a violent crack
down of the protestors. For example in 1999, the Ijaw ethnic group, the fourth largest one in
Nigeria, started Climate Change operation which aimed at ending all oil operations and
negotiating about the cleaning of the region with the indigenous communities in a way to
make them recognize their local rights to control the land and its resources the land possesses.
Since the Climate Change Operation, began observers in the region have reported human
rights violation such as military violence, rape, and the use of oil companies helicopters to
34
threaten whole villages by gunshots, road blockades and various arrests (Wilson 1999). As a
result of Nigeria’s undemocratic structure, the Nigerian president has the power to decide
many things with no support of the parliament, thus, he can negotiate with the oil companies
on his own. Also, because the government was not supportive of the local population they
tried to solve it their way by kidnapping, sabotage, and theft of the crude oil (Elisha Bala-
Gbogbo 2013). Therefore, oil companies including Chevron and Shell, shift from land-based
operations to off-shore where the security risk is not as high as on mainland. The increased
security brings higher costs, which are about 40% higher than on mainland. “Due to the
increased level of oil theft and disruptions, a number of oil companies have started selling
blocks in the troubled areas and moving to deep water offshore blocks,” Rolake Akinkugbe,
London-based head of oil and gas at Ecobank Research, said in an e-mailed response to
questions. “The move offshore is being viewed as a longer-term solution to the challenges
faced onshore and in the shallow waters” (Elisha Bala-Gbogbo 2013).
Second, the oil companies are attacked by locals. “The attacks on oil companies are
justified by the rebels by saying that the government failed to follow up the amnesty by
meeting the demands of people to reduce poverty and grant the region more benefits from the
oil production”, explained Anyakwee Nsirimovu, executive director of the Port Harcourt-
based Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law (Elisha Bala-Gbogbo 2013). Oil theft
by criminal gangs tapping fuel from pipelines to local refineries or to sell the stolen oil to
ships waiting on the coast has become a common business. Nigeria lost because of that $7
billion in revenue in 2011, which is about a quarter of the national budged per year, according
to the Central Bank (Elisha Bala-Gbogbo 2013). On the other hand, it is understandable why
locals chose to take this kind of action. They do not have any profit from the oil extraction in
the region. By contrast they rather face many challenges which it brings along environmental
degradation, water contamination, which all affect the humans’ health.
35
Third, the Nigerian government is taking long in issues such as passing laws which
would benefit a bigger community, and therefore the reform bill which should have been
passed by the year 2012, was postponed because officials are waiting for reports about the
problematic region. In October of this year, the exploitation of oil should be made less
efficient for foreign companies. Lawmakers are to vote on the reform bill which will increase
Nigerian profit from 61% to 73% through higher taxes and royalties (Elisha Bala-Gbogbo
2013). Oil companies which operate in Nigeria will not profit on extraction of oil anymore in
case the bill will be passed (Odugbesen 2013). During the delays in passing this law
companies such as Shell have acted quickly and invested in the huge deep-water reserve
which they bought from Malabu Oil and Gas Ltd. The reserves in this field are estimated to be
9billion barrels (Elisha Bala-Gbogbo 2013).
Fourth, the exploitation of natural resources in not only the fault of foreign oil
companies it is also the fault of the Nigerian federal government. As Alao (2007, 31) puts it, “
[…] it is the institutional mechanisms and the political will embedded in the management of
natural resources that connect it to conflict, and not the scarcity or abundance or value of a
particular natural resource”, which in Nigeria’s case would be oil. In other words, it is the
failure of states that they cannot effectively integrate all contents of natural resource
governance. Alao (2007, 32) also explains, that “in many African countries, the nature of
natural resource governance is either completely defective or is just selectively efficient, with
no efforts being made to align many of the structures to other aspects of socioeconomic and
political governance”. Moreover, many of the laws passed which are supposed to manage the
governance of natural resources are contradictory, or institutions that should handle
effectively the dichotomy between local claims and federal interests are ineffective and the
officials corrupt (Alao 2007, x). On the other hand, transparent regimes would enable the use
36
of all the power they have to satisfy the population’s needs and so prevent domestic conflicts
and at the same time get enough profit to invest in their own country.
Then, the situation of oil exploitation brings consequences not only on regional range
but also on the national one. One, the environment degradation is likely to be made worse,
rather than better in the near future. If not the oil exploiters of the region, then the government
will have to one day invest huge amounts of money to clear the area, in order for people to be
able to live there, as the population of Nigeria continuously grows (Provost 2013; Ministry
Niger Delta Affairs 2013). Two, if the governance of the natural resources will not be
managed rapidly Nigeria as a developing country dependent on oil export will not have any
source of income, from which it would be able to develop economically which would again
provide other possibilities of income than from oil export. Three, if the government of Nigeria
continues to give only promises and will not fulfill them, people will be rebelling against the
government, which could cause a serious domestic conflict because people rebelling are those
that do not have anything to lose anymore due to the government does not show any action in
reducing poverty which these people live in (Rural Poverty Portal 2012). And four, the
political tradition, which has been very weak in Nigeria, could be weakened more, and the
respect for politics will decrease too as it happened in the past.
Lastly, socioeconomic factors which I have introduced in this chapter lead to the
international dependency of the country. Due to the exploitation of oil in Nigeria which brings
along great financial losses, Nigeria is a country that is heavily dependent on oil exports. I
will use Wallerstein’s world system theory to explain Nigeria’s international situation.
Dependency theory
The world system theory, which was in the 1970’s developed by Immanuel
Wallerstein. The world system theory is based on the Marxist analyses workings and
contradictions of the capitalist system. Although, Marx’s predictions about the future utopias
37
were not right, his theory works in the international sphere. According to Wallerstein, the
nation state is exists within a broad economic, political, and legal framework which he calls
the world system. Also, he adds that individual states cannot be understood without a broader
perspective of the world system. The nowadays world system is capitalist because Europeans
started spreading it in the 15th century around the globe with accumulation of capital, and
quick economic, and political development. It was created thanks to the long distance trade
from Europe to South and North America, Asia, and Africa. The capitalists profited a lot from
unequal trade with other continents because they were more developed and they protected
their interests. Therefore, Wallerstein divides the world into three different parts, according to
what function they have (Wallerstein 2005).
First, the world system theory consists of a three-level hierarchy, the core of the world,
the periphery, and semi-periphery. Countries from the core are developed capitalist countries
such as North American countries, and Western European countries. These countries exploit
countries from the periphery for labor force, and raw materials. For the first-world countries,
the core, it is possible to exploit the third-world countries, the peripheral countries, because
their industry is not developed enough to use the raw materials they have to produce
something. As most third world countries are not industrialized enough they have to depend
on the first-world countries from where the capital flows. Also, third-world countries are
usually dependent on the export of one main commodity. Semi-peripheral countries mostly
share some characteristics with the third-world countries and also first-world countries.
Usually, semi-peripheral countries are agrarian, the leading power of the region, and
important members of the old colonial world which is Nigeria’s case. Although Nigeria is a
semi-peripheral state, it is strongly dependent on the first-world, core countries, especially
regarding oil export and investment of capital. As I mentioned in the second chapter, when the
38
oil prices rapidly dropped and OPEC had to stabilize prices by extracting less oil, Nigeria
entered a period of serious economic crisis.
Dependency on the core
Oil provides the main economic source for Nigeria. As OPEC’s statistics show, “The
capital-intensive oil sector provides 20 per cent of gross domestic product, 95 per cent of
foreign exchange earnings, and about 65 per cent of budgetary revenues” (Alison-Madueke
2012). Although, we can find four refineries with the capacity of 445, 000 bpd in Nigeria they
have never been able to work to its full capacity as a result of poor maintenance, theft, and
fire (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2012). So not only that Nigeria is dependent on
crude oil exports but it is also dependent on final oil products which are imported from other
countries back to Nigeria. Nigeria exports crude oil mainly to the United States 33%, India
12%, Brazil 8%, and the Netherlands 6% (US Energy Information Administration 2012).
Nigeria’s oil consumption is about, “petrol 30 to 33 million liters per day; diesel 12
million liters per day; Kerosene 10 million liters per day; and ATK (Aviation Turbine
Kerosene commonly known as aviation fuel) 1.6 million to 3 million liters per day depending
on the season” (The Economist Nigeria 2013). Such a high consumption cannot be satisfied
with such a low production of petrol which the four refineries offer. “For almost the whole of
2010, the four refineries with a combined capacity in excess of 445,000 barrels per day could
only refine a mere 80,757 metric tons of petroleum products. These are 19,967 of petrol;
53,223 metric tons of diesel, and 7,567 metric tons of LPG or cooking gas” (The Economist
Nigeria 2013). The rest must be imported. Therefore, I argue, even though Nigeria is one of
the largest exporters of crude oil, it is heavily dependent on the final product importers and so
the country can be put under pressure, and blackmailed by those countries importing final
products because the energy sector is one of the most important sectors as all others depend
on it.
39
This chapter showed us how the socioeconomic factors are affected by exploitation of
natural resources in the country. According to Lipset, there is need for a certain economic and
social development in order to have a country becoming a democracy. As I have showed
Nigeria is not a poor country thanks to its natural resources reserves, especially oil. The
country has a very high growth rate according to the United Nations Data (United Nations
Data 2013), which would be according to Lipset’s modernization theory enough for the
country to develop sufficiently economically. On the contrary, I argue that economic growth
is not enough for a country’s democratization because, such in the case of Nigeria, even
though there is growth, the revenue from the natural resources are not rightly allocated and
distributed which prevents the middle class from being created and let the country
democratize. One could argue that without a democratic regime, the country cannot allocate
resources effectively but there are some countries in the world that are not democratic but all
the citizens may profit from the country’s wealth, such an example would be Brunei. In the
case of Nigeria democracy would definitely prevent to a large scale exploitation of natural
resources and democracy would also enable the transparency of the allocation of the natural
resources profits. On the other hand, exploitation of natural resources slows down the
socioeconomic development which otherwise would enable the generation of a middle class
to grow. Then, the fact that Nigeria is a developing country but at the same time a regional
economic, and military power, it belongs to the semi-peripheral world system. A semi-
peripheral position tells us that Nigeria is dependent on the core countries in oil export and
thus, it can be a victim of blackmail (Amin 1972, 505; Alao 2007, 3). Countries, such as
Nigeria, can be blackmailed from the core countries they are dependent on by being
conditioned do to something domestically, or decide something internationally which gives
more influence to the core countries. Therefore, Nigeria is according to the findings of this
chapter a hopeless case of an effective transition to democracy.
40
Conclusion
Summary
This study researches whether the Federal Republic of Nigeria can or cannot become
an electoral democracy. To define electoral democracy I use the concept of Schumpeter who
states that an electoral democracy is a democracy in which elected political groups respect the
victory of another and leave the position as they lose the elections. Then, to understand the
transition to democracy of the country I used Rustow’s theory of transition to democracy
which takes us through conditions which the country has to be able to go through in the
following order, in order to be successful in the transition to democracy. Then, I used Lipset’s
modernization theory to show that without economic and social development there cannot be
a democracy in countries such as Nigeria. That also proves my third chapter, because
exploitation of natural resources creates conflicts and also causes great losses of profits. Then,
due to Nigeria is getting huge profits from oil export it is heavily dependent on the export. If
countries refused to import oil from Nigeria the country would enter serious financial crisis.
Although, Nigeria has these profits though, it does not effectively invest in the future
development and it does not distribute the profits either. Therefore, I argue that the country is
not cursed because of its natural resources rather it is the failure of the natural resources
governance which causes the lack of socioeconomic development which also prevents the
transition to democracy to be completed.
Potential weaknesses
As this research focuses on the transition to democracy of Nigeria it looks at the
transition to democracy from the issue of natural resources exploitation. I argue that because
natural resources, such as oil, are being exploited the socioeconomic development of the
41
country is weak and therefore it cannot become a democracy. Definitely, I am aware of the
weakness of looking at only one aspect of the possible ways of socioeconomic development.
Furthermore, as the topic of the natural resources exploitation and governance is very
complex and so the country’s situation in the democratization process, it might be hard to
completely generalize the case of Nigeria for other similar cases.
Future Prospects and Implications
During the next future years, Nigeria is destined to become Africa’s largest economy
with its current growth rates. Economists say that the country will experience even higher
growth rates in the next decade (Donnelly 2012). Unfortunately, we cannot predict whether
the expected economic growth will also transform the lives of the 150 million inhabitants
Nigeria has. As is written in an article from allAfrica, “With two dollar billionaires, many
more millionaires, but with 61 per cent of its population living on less than a dollar a day,
Nigeria is a country of extremes, a reality that makes grappling with its challenges and taking
advantage of its opportunities altogether more complicated” (Donnelly 2012). Nigeria is a
country of huge differences between the rich and the poor, between the South and the North,
between cities and the countryside. If Nigeria is to become African’s leading economy it will
have to start transforming the weak parts of the state into stronger, definitely the country
would have to solve its internal problems with separatist movements of Biafra, violent
terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, and also religious hatred among the diverse population.
As Nigeria is heavily dependent on oil exportation, it should establish various kinds of
other sources of income as the natural resources reserves are not endless. Definitely, the
country will have to create more jobs for the growing population and provide conditions for
countryside farmers to feed the population so that Nigeria is not dependent on the food
imports as well. Due to the exploitation of natural resources destroyed a vast area of land, the
government will have to invest in the environmental cleaning up, in order for the inhabitants
42
of those affected regions not to have health problems because of water and food
contamination from oil spills.
43
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Appendices
I took this picture in the Niger Delta Region. As is obvious from the picture the land in this region is seriously devastated and polluted.
47
I took this picture a few minutes away from the previous. Several decades back this lake was full of fishes and people used the water for washing clothes at home, and for daily use. Now though, the water is polluted with oil spills and the ecosystem in the water was destroyed.
48
This is a picture I took in the village Aguoba Umumba. This is a market place on Sunday morning.
49
This picture comes from the centre of Lagos. We can see that compared to the village it is a different world.
50