STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 - Vetnosisvetnosis.com/pdfs/STORM_2017_web.pdf · STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 2 STORM FORECASTS is the only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture

STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26

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STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical

market data and forecasts

June 2017


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STORM FORECASTS is the only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture

HISTORICAL data and FORECASTS covering 20 years

STORM FORECASTS includes 2.7 million data points of pivotal animal health market data and

animal agriculture metrics, including consumption, production and trade of 12 animal proteins

and population metrics for 11 animal types, including cats, dogs and horses

STORM FORECASTS covers the world market, six regions and the largest 25 countries and

emerging markets

STORM FORECASTS covers all Species sectors

• Cattle [beef & dairy], Sheep & goats, Pigs, Poultry [layer chickens, broiler chickens, turkeys, other poultry]

and Companion Animals [dogs, cats, horses]

STORM FORECASTS covers all Product Groups

• Medicinal Feed Additives, Biologicals, Anti-infectives, Parasiticides and Other Pharmaceuticals

STORM FORECASTS includes HISTORICAL animal health market data and FORECASTS

• in Local currency and US dollar terms by Product Group-Species sector e.g. France-Cattle-Biologicals

• in Nominal, FX Neutral* and Real* terms

What is STORM FORECASTS?

* Forecasts only


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STORM FORECASTS delivers objective and independent data that can support better strategic

decisions and operational planning

STORM FORECASTS allows clients to focus resources on strategic analysis and decision making

and not data collection and can challenge “groupthink”

STORM FORECASTS contains proprietary animal health and animal agriculture FORECASTS

STORM FORECASTS contains HISTORICAL (10 years) animal agriculture and macro-economic

data in an “off-the-shelf”, easy to use product delivering significant increases in operational

efficiency and effectiveness during strategic and operational planning processes

STORM FORECASTS contains HISTORICAL animal health market data (10 years) and proprietary

animal health market FORECASTS (10 years) in Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms

Why use STORM FORECASTS?


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STORM FORECASTS Methodology: Proprietary Market Modelsinter-connected, bottom-up “Demand/Supply” models drive the “Live Animal” models and

“Animal Health Market” model

Demand/ Supply Models

Consumption

Exports

Production

Imports

232 Countries

11 Animal Types

232 Countries

25 Segments

Cattle

Beef

Dairy

Sheep & goats

Meat

Fibre

Poultry

Pigs

Turkeys

Layers

Other poultryBroilers

Live Animal Models

Cat

Dog

Horse

$/MTU

MTU

Animal Health Market Model

• Human population

• Real GDP per capita growth

• Demand elasticities

• Consumer preferences

• Trade dynamics

• Production constraints

• Births

• Deaths

• Yield

• Litter size

• Live animal trade

• Carcass weights

• Breeding females / males

• Replacement rates

• Age to productivity / productive life

• Spend per Medicalised Treatable Unit

• Underlying historical trend

• Forecast trend evolution

• Price inflation / adjustments

• New technologies / generics

• News & events

• Regulation & policy

• Macro-economics

• Medicalised Treatable Units

• Medicalisation rates


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Historical Forecasts

3rd Party Vetnosis 3rd Party Vetnosis

Macro-economics/FX Rates (IMF, EIU)

Animal Agriculture (USDA, Eurostat, FAO)

(where unavailable)

Animal Health (Trade Associations)

(where unavailable)

= Vetnosis proprietary data

Data SourcesVetnosis uses best-in-class 3rd party historical data for macro-economics/FX rates, animal

agriculture and animal health. Vetnosis creates proprietary forecasts for animal agriculture

metrics and animal health market data


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Animal Proteins and Animal Types Animal Health Market Segmentation e.g. Cattle-Biologicals

Animal Proteins (12) Animal Types (11) Species (5) Product Groups (5)

Bovine meat Cattle & buffalo Cattle Medicinal Feed Additives

Sheep & goat meat Sheep & goats Sheep & Goats Biologicals

Pig meat Pigs Pigs Anti-infectives

Eggs Layer chickens Poultry Parasiticides

Broiler meat Broiler chickens Companion Animal/Other Other Pharmaceuticals

Turkey meat Turkeys

Other poultry meat Other poultry e.g. ducks

Fluid milk Dairy cattle & buffalo

Butter n/a

Cheese n/a

Other dairy n/a

Other meat n/a e.g. camels, game

n/a Cats

n/a Dogs

n/a Horses

Scope of Animal Proteins and Animal Types and Animal Health

Market Segmentation


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Global Scope: Animal Agriculture Historical Data & Forecasts64 named country markets, 10 sub-regions, 6 regions and world

NORTH AMERICA:

Canada

USA

LATIN AMERICA:Argentina

BrazilChile

ColombiaMexico

UruguayVenezuela

Other Latin America

WEST EUROPE:Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Other West Europe

FAR EAST:Australia

ChinaIndonesia

JapanMalaysiaMyanmar

New ZealandPhilippines

South KoreaThailandVietnam

Other Far East

Russia, Ukraine, Other CIS, Central Asia

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Other Balkans

EAST EUROPE:

Other North Africa Egypt

Ethiopia

Congo DR, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Other Sub-Saharan Africa

Rest of Rest of World

TurkeyIsrael

India

South Africa

REST OF WORLD:

BangladeshPakistan

Iran


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Global Scope: Animal Health Historical Data & Forecasts25 largest country markets, 5 sub-regions, 6 regions and world in local currency and US dollars;

and in Nominal, FX Neutral* and Real* terms

NORTH AMERICA:

Canada

USA

LATIN AMERICA:Argentina, Brazil, Mexico

Rest of Latin America

REST OF WORLD:

Rest of Rest of World

South Africa

EAST EUROPE:

Russia

Rest of East Europe

Poland,

WEST EUROPE:Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK

Rest of West Europe FAR EAST:Australia, China

Japan, New ZealandPhilippines, South Korea,

Thailand, Vietnam

Rest of Far East

India

Turkey

*forecasts only


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Contents

Macro-economics Consumption Production Commodity Balance Sheet Animal Balance Sheet Inventory Structure Treatable Units Animal Health Market


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Macro-economics DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data

Region Country/Region Blank Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Human population Millions IMF 2022 91.047 93.141 95.283 97.475 99.717 102.010 103.708 105.385 107.044 108.689 110.322

Nominal GDP Billions USD IMF 2022 332.349 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a … … … …

Real GDP Grow th (Local Currency) % IMF 2022 4.3 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

Real GDP per head Grow th (Local Currency) % IMF 2022 2.9 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

GDP (based on PPP) per head '000 USD per head IMF 2022 12.554 12.983 13.555 14.259 15.044 15.903 16.813 … … … …

Inflation % IMF 2022 10.2 22.0 16.9 10.9 8.1 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

USD exchange rate Local currency per USD Pac. Exch/EIU 2026 10.051 18.050 16.560 15.890 15.290 14.780 16.010 17.260 18.600 20.020 21.490

Unemployment % IMF 2022 12.7 12.6 11.8 10.6 9.1 7.4 5.7 … … … …

Human population

Nominal GDP (US$ bn)

Real GDP Growth (Local Currency)

Real GDP per head Growth (Local Currency)

GDP (based on PPP) per head

Inflation

USD exchange rate

Unemployment

Macro-economicsKey macro-economics data and charts (2006-26) for 81 countries/regions

33,048 data points

Macro-economics ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Metric Human population

Country/Region World

WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED

Unit

Data Millions

2006 6,536.02

2007 6,618.93

2008 6,699.61

2009 6,778.83

2010 6,859.28

2011 6,946.05

2012 7,039.25

2013 7,121.60

2014 7,203.15

2015 7,286.80

2016 7,370.15

2017 7,453.86

2018 7,538.29

2019 7,623.01

2020 7,707.98

2021 7,792.91

2022 7,869.87

2023 7,945.72

2024 8,020.53

2025 8,094.35

2026 8,167.18

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026


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Consumption DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data

Region Country/Region Commodity Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Pig meat Total consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 400 403 406 408 409 410 410 410 410 410 409

Pig meat Human consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 400 403 406 408 409 410 410 410 410 410 409

Pig meat Human consumption per head kg / head Eurostat 2016 40.684 41.078 41.440 41.740 41.987 42.181 42.334 42.488 42.642 42.797 42.952

Pig meat Self-sufficiency % … … 107.9 104.6 103.6 103.5 103.6 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.4 104.6 104.9

Total consumption

• Human consumption + Other uses

Human consumption

• Human consumption per head

• Human population

Human consumption per head

• Real GDP per head

• Demand elasticities

• Consumer preference trends

Self-sufficiency

ConsumptionConsumption metrics (2006-26) for 12 animal proteins in 81 countries/regions modelled for

fundamental demand drivers

231,336 data points

Consumption ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Metric Human consumption per head

Country/Region Central Asia

Commodity Total meat


Unit

Data kg / head

2006 36.94

2007 36.25

2008 39.10

2009 39.84

2010 41.30

2011 43.50

2012 42.99

2013 43.45

2014 44.03

2015 44.63

2016 45.15

2017 45.69

2018 46.39

2019 47.07

2020 47.80

2021 48.60

2022 49.49

2023 50.41

2024 51.35

2025 52.32

2026 53.32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026


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Production DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data


Broiler meat Production '000s MT Eurostat 2016 1,850 1,908 1,956 1,996 2,034 2,080 2,124 2,168 2,210 2,250 2,289

Broiler meat Total slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 1,056,883 1,084,893 1,106,390 1,123,199 1,139,347 1,159,269 1,177,543 1,196,228 1,213,429 1,228,882 1,243,903

Broiler meat Carcass w eight kg / head Eurostat 2016 1.750 1.759 1.768 1.777 1.786 1.794 1.803 1.812 1.822 1.831 1.840

Broiler meat Production % for export % Eurostat 2016 53.5 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.6 54.8 55.1 55.3 55.5 55.6

ProductionProduction metrics (2006-26) for 12 animal proteins in 81 countries/regions modelled for

fundamental supply drivers and trade

Production

Total slaughtered

Carcass weight

Production % for export

206,550 data points

Production ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Metric Total slaughtered

Country/Region Kenya

Commodity Bovine meat


Unit

Data '000s head

2006 1,911.00

2007 1,719.90

2008 1,891.90

2009 2,057.00

2010 1,923.50

2011 2,104.00

2012 2,194.20

2013 2,147.30

2014 2,076.70

2015 2,092.36

2016 2,115.28

2017 2,135.01

2018 2,155.03

2019 2,183.01

2020 2,218.23

2021 2,250.56

2022 2,276.26

2023 2,301.87

2024 2,327.55

2025 2,353.38

2026 2,379.34

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026


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Commodity Balance Sheet DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data


Cheese Production '000s MT Eurostat 2016 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 113 114

Cheese Total consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 115 116

Cheese Human consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 115 116

Cheese Other uses and processing '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cheese Initial stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Cheese End stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Cheese Exports '000s MT Eurostat 2016 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23

Cheese Imports '000s MT Eurostat 2016 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25

Cheese Total demand '000s MT Eurostat 2016 124 126 127 129 130 132 133 135 136 137 139

Cheese Total supply '000s MT Eurostat 2016 124 126 127 129 130 132 133 135 136 137 139

Cheese Change in Stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cheese Balance '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Production

Total consumption

• Human consumption

• Other uses and processing

Initial stocks

End stocks

Exports

Imports

Commodity Balance SheetConsumption, Production, Imports and Exports balance sheets for 12 animal proteins in 81

countries/regions

694,008 data points


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Animal Balance Sheet DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data

Region Country/Region Animal Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Cattle Inventory '000s head Eurostat 2016 838 839 839 837 835 832 829 826 823 820 817

Cattle Deaths '000s head Eurostat 2016 143 142 142 141 141 140 139 138 137 136 135

Cattle Total slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 108 108 108 108 107 107 106 106 105 104 104

Cattle Non-breeding animals slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28

Cattle Total mortality '000s head Eurostat 2016 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 32 32 32 31

Cattle Births '000s head Eurostat 2016 303 301 299 297 294 291 288 285 282 280 277

Cattle Exports - live animals '000s head Eurostat 2016 220 224 227 230 232 234 236 238 240 242 243

Cattle Imports - live animals '000s head Eurostat 2016 60 61 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66

Inventory

Deaths

• Total slaughtered

• Total mortality

Births

Exports – live animals

Imports – live animals

Animal Balance SheetAnimal balance sheets for 9 animal types in 81 countries/regions

495,720 data points


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Inventory StructureRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data


Pigs Inventory '000s head Eurostat 2016 2,793 2,655 2,608 2,585 2,564 2,540 2,511 2,483 2,456 2,427 2,398

Pigs Total breeding animals '000s head … … 329 306 294 285 277 268 260 251 243 235 227

Pigs Adult breeding females '000s head Eurostat 2016 236 220 212 205 199 193 187 181 175 170 164

Pigs Juvenile breeding females '000s head Vetnosis … 87 81 78 75 73 71 69 67 64 62 60

Pigs Adult breeding males '000s head Vetnosis … 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2

Pigs Juvenile breeding males '000s head Vetnosis … 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Pigs Other inventory '000s head Vetnosis … 2,464 2,349 2,313 2,299 2,287 2,272 2,251 2,232 2,213 2,192 2,171

Inventory

Total breeding animals

• Adult breeding females

• Juvenile breeding females

• Adult breeding males

• Juvenile breeding males

Other inventory

Inventory StructureHerd/flock structure segmented into Breeding animals and Other inventory for 8 production

animal types and also dog, cat and horse populations in 81 countries/regions

289,170 data points

Inventory Structure ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Metric Juvenile breeding females

Country/Region Austria

Animal Pigs


Unit

Data '000s head

2006 115.12

2007 114.23

2008 106.85

2009 105.65

2010 102.43

2011 99.19

2012 94.73

2013 91.77

2014 88.99

2015 89.98

2016 86.82

2017 80.82

2018 77.72

2019 75.42

2020 73.25

2021 71.04

2022 68.73

2023 66.54

2024 64.41

2025 62.30

2026 60.26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026


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Treatable Units DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data


Cattle Total breeding animals [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 19,273 19,273 19,384 19,603 19,847 20,096 20,306 20,472 20,633 20,791 20,944

Cattle Breeding females [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 18,950 18,950 19,059 19,274 19,515 19,759 19,965 20,129 20,288 20,442 20,593

Cattle Breeding males [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 323 323 325 329 333 337 340 343 346 348 351

Cattle Total slaughtered '000s head Vetnosis … 4,100 4,100 4,149 4,208 4,269 4,330 4,374 4,416 4,458 4,500 4,540

Cattle Non-breeding animals [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … -1,273 -1,273 -1,297 -1,319 -1,343 -1,367 -1,389 -1,408 -1,427 -1,446 -1,464

Cattle Treatable units '000s head Vetnosis … 18,000 18,000 18,087 18,284 18,504 18,729 18,917 19,064 19,206 19,345 19,480

Cattle Medicalisation rate % Vetnosis … 98.1 99.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Cattle Medicalised treatable units '000s head Vetnosis … 17,662 17,857 18,087 18,284 18,504 18,729 18,917 19,064 19,206 19,345 19,480

Total breeding animals

• Breeding females

• Breeding males

Total slaughtered

Non-breeding animals

Treatable units

Medicalisation rate

Medicalised treatable units

Treatable Units

367,659 data points

Treatable Units ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Metric Breeding females [avg.]

Country/Region Lithuania

Animal Pigs


Unit

Data '000s head

2006 134.01

2007 122.27

2008 109.02

2009 110.25

2010 112.98

2011 102.67

2012 89.98

2013 83.63

2014 78.78

2015 74.75

2016 69.56

2017 63.25

2018 58.62

2019 56.42

2020 54.60

2021 52.86

2022 51.22

2023 49.72

2024 48.30

2025 46.90

2026 45.55

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026


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Animal Health Market -

Nominal TermsRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Forecast Data

Region Country/Region Species Product Group Metric Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Cattle Medicinal Feed Additives Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07

Cattle Biologicals Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 3.35 3.43 3.52 3.62 3.72 3.83 3.95 4.08 4.22 4.36 4.51

Cattle Anti-infectives Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 2.27 2.28 2.31 2.34 2.38 2.41 2.46 2.50 2.54 2.59 2.64

Cattle Parasiticides Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.66 1.69

Cattle Other Pharmaceuticals Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 3.00 3.06 3.14 3.22 3.30 3.39 3.48 3.56 3.65 3.74 3.84

Cattle ALL PRODUCT GROUPS Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 10.07 10.24 10.46 10.70 10.95 11.21 11.50 11.80 12.10 12.42 12.74

Animal Health market (ex-manufacturer net sales) for the Top 25 country markets, 5 sub-regions, 6

regions and world from 2006-26 by 25 Species-Product Group market segments e.g. Cattle-

Biologicals

10-year HISTORICAL market data in Nominal Local currency and US Dollars

10-year FORECASTS in Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms in Local Currency and US Dollars

Animal Health Market: Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms

344,160 data points


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Deliverableaccess through an easy to use Excel format containing 2.7 million data points

Control PanelRelease Date: 30th June 2017

Macro-economics

Animal Agriculture Consumption

Production

Commodity Balance Sheet

Animal Balance Sheet

Inventory Structure

Treatable Units

Nominal

Fx Neutral

Real

Animal Health

Macro-economicsCHARTDATA

DATA CHART

DATA CHART

DATA CHART

TABLEDATA

TABLEDATA

CHARTDATA

CHARTDATA

CHARTDATA

Country Key

DATA CHART

Glossary

Delivering commercial insight to the global animal health industrywww.vetnosis.com

Vetnosis Limited

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United Kingdom

Registered Office: Abbey House, 83 Princes Street, Edinburgh, EH2 2ER, United Kingdom Registered Number: SC335371 (Scotland)

Contact Details

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E: [email protected]

For further information contact:

Tim EvansManaging Director+44 (0)131 718 [email protected]

Documents

STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 - Vetnosisvetnosis.com/pdfs/STORM_2017_web.pdf · STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 2 STORM FORECASTS is the only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture