Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts · Interleaving controller (4) H I G H L O W & SanDisk 1989 1 MB SSD 2.5” form-factor EIDE/PATA interface WD controller system SanDisk

Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts

William C. Cain

Western DigitalLake Forest, California, USA

PMRC 2007, Oct. 15-17, Tokyo, Japan

2© 2007 Western Digital. All rights reserved. No reproduction of materials without permission.

Safe HarborThis presentation and comments made by WD during this presentation, may contain forward-looking statements concerning: trends and conditions in the storage industry; WD’s expectations for growth in the markets for storage products; revenue forecasts in the storage industry; WD’s unit volume forecasts for HDDs; WD’s beliefs regarding the future of solid state drives, market dynamics product roadmaps; and WD’s beliefs regarding the future and impact of solid state drives on the storage industry in comparison to hard disk drives, including with respect to power, size, performance, capacity, cost/price, reliability and availability. These forward-looking statements are based on current management expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including: uncertainties related to the development and introduction of products based on new technologies; business conditions and actions by competitors; supply and demand conditions in the storage industry; pricing trends; changes in the availability and cost of storage products; and other risks and uncertainties listed in WD’s recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on August 28, 2007, to which your attention is directed. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and WD undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.


Myths and Facts

Myth \mith\ n [Gk mythos] (1830): an unproved or false collective belief

Fact \fakt\ n [L factum] (1539): a truth known by actual experience or observation


Today’s Themes

Storage is BIG business and is growing

2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawed

Computing storage market battle will be waged on HDD’s turf


$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Rev

enue

Dol

lars

(in

mill

ions

)

HDD NAND NOR DRAM CPU/MPU ODD

ACTUAL FORECAST

Sources: Gartner – History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, 2002-2011,Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database

High-Tech Component Market Opportunities

CPU/MPU, DRAM, and HDD are largest marketsAligning supply to demand allows revenue$ growth


Disk Drive Forecast: SSD Thesis Starting 2009?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Uni

ts (i

n m

illio

ns)

SSD (Gartner) SSD (Samsung) HDD (Gartner)

Sources: Gartner – History, Market Share and Forecast, Hard Disk Drives, Worldwide, 2002-2011, ID Number: G00147803, May 16, 2007; Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide: Forecast Database, ID Number: SEQS-WW-DB-DATA, February 27, 2007; Samsung – SSD forecast


Time Tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989)

Source: John Squire – Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals


HDD Industry Knows and Understands SSDPioneering WD & SanDisk work circa 1988-1991 started it all

Today’s SSDs are repackaged and repurposed CF cards

1990 2000 2010

2007High-end 1.8” SSD8 TSOPs, 32 die, MLCEIDE/PATA interfaceInterleaving controller (4)

HHIIGGHH

LLOOWW

& SanDisk

19891 MB SSD2.5” form-factorEIDE/PATA interfaceWD controller systemSanDisk SLC NAND (3)

199416 MB Compact Flash (CF)EIDE/PATA interfaceNon-interleaving controller (1 channel)3 4 TSOPs

2007Low-end 2.5” SSD4 TSOPs, 16 die, SLCEIDE/PATA interfaceNon-interleaving controller

2003High-end CF (Professional DSC)1 GB, 10 20 40 MB/secEIDE/PATA interfaceInterleaving controller (2 4)


Drive Is Media, Electronics and FirmwareMedia CapabilityBit Error Rate (BER)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)

Media CapabilityBit Error Rate (BER)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)

Firmware EnhancementData Protection Algorithms

Firmware EnhancementData Protection Algorithms

Heads & Disks

Heads & Disks

NAND DieNAND Die

Electronics EnhancementError Correction Code type/length (ECC)

Data Encoding/Coding

Electronics EnhancementError Correction Code type/length (ECC)

Data Encoding/Coding

NAND SoC

NAND SoC

HDDPre-amp

+ SoC

HDDPre-amp

+ SoC

Defect ManagementOffline Scanning/Correction

Defect ManagementOffline Scanning/Correction

Defect ManagementWear Leveling

Defect ManagementWear Leveling


Myth #1: Storage Power Critical in Notebooks

0

50

100

150

200

250

HDD - Notebook Power HDD - External Power

Bat

tery

Life

(in

min

utes

)

186 197

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on HP model 6100 notebook with 512 MB DRAM with Windows XP® and WD Scorpio (160 GB)

Fact: HDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budget2.5” HDD off external power supply = powerless storage deviceBattery life with powerless HDD only 11 minutes more than with HDDLCD and LSI consume all the power


Myth #2: SSD Offers Significantly Longer Battery Life than HDD

Fact: SSD offers only three minutes (2%) more battery life than HDDHDD is secondary to battery life at <6% of power budgetLCD and LSI consume all the power

020406080

100120140160

HDD - Notebook Power SSD - Notebook Power

Bat

tery

Life

(in

min

utes

)

134 137

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows XP

WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA


Myth #3: SSD Offers Significantly Faster Cold Boot Time

Fact: SSD offers only three seconds (8%) faster boot time than HDD

05

101520253035404550

HDD SSD

Col

d B

oot T

ime

(in s

econ

ds) 40.9 37.8

Source: Testing using MobileMark 2005 on Gateway MX6442 notebook with 1024 MB DRAM with Windows VistaTM Ultimate

WD Scorpio 160 GB EIDE/PATA SanDisk 32 GB EIDE/PATA


Myth #4: NAND (HHD or SSD) is the Solution to Faster Boot Time

Fact: DRAM is the solution to fastest boot time through use of Windows VistaTM default power mode

DRAM is much faster than SSD/HHD/HDD

34.1 33.9

48.3

70.1

41.2

51.255.4

4.4 4.3 4 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

XP Pro(SP2)

XP Home(SP2)

Vista HomeBasic

Vista HomePremium

VistaUltimate

VistaBusiness

VistaEnterprise

Boo

t Tim

e (in

sec

onds

)

Cold Boot from HDDVista Sleep - Warm Boot from DRAM

Source: WD testing in HP Pavilion dv9120us Notebook PC, 2 GB DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD


Myth #5: Windows Vista Sleep Results in Unacceptable Battery Life

Fact: Windows Vista Sleep is a fantastic feature if notebook is recharged every 1-2 days

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

24 Hours 48 Hours

Bat

tery

Life

%

Source: WD testing with Home Basic, HP Pavilion dv9120us notebook PC, 2 GB of DRAM and WD Scorpio 160 GB HDD


Fact: Human attributes determine form factorsLCD and keyboard1.8" (0.8% of market) would be popular today if size & weight matteredTime-tested adage

“Use the biggest HDD form-factor that fits inside the box”

Myth #6: HDD Size & Weight Critical in Notebooks

HDD<2% of Notebook Volume<3% of Notebook Weight

Sources: TrendFocus; calculations based on an HP Pavillion dv9120 notebook computer.


http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=2982&p=1

Are SSDs Really Faster?

Lab Tested* *Using standard industry benchmark: PCMark05, IOMeter, WinBench99

http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/1/536.aspxSuper-Talent Brand 16 GB, 2.5-inch

Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB SanDisk 32 GB

SanDisk 32 GB, 2.5-inchThird Party SSD Reviews

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=2982&p=1

http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/1/536.aspx


2007 SSD: High-End vs. Low-End SSD

SSD Type: Low-endTranscend 8 GB

High-endSanDisk 32 GB

Architecture: Non-interleaved InterleavedFloor Configuration: 1 die 4 dieDRAM Buffer: None Optional

Interleaved SSD


Myth #7: SSD Performance Faster in Random

Fact: SSDs faster at random reads, not random writesSSD writes slower due to media and wear-leveling overheadHDD has write cache to minimize latency impact

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Write 1

Read 1

IOPS

WD Scorpio 250 GBTranscend 8 GBSanDisk 32 GB

Source: IOMeter

Random Read 1 Block

Random Write 1 Block

46374637

1212


Myth #8: SSD Performance Faster in Sequential

Fact: HDD is faster in sequential writes, most readsInterleaving improves SSD sequential performanceHDD has much higher read/write sequential transfer rates than single NAND die

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Write 128

Write 1

Read 128

Read 1

Data Transfer (MB/s)

SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GBSequential Read 1 Block

Sequential Read 128 Block

Sequential Write 1 Block

Sequential Write 128 Block

Source: IOMeter


Myth #9: SSD Performance Faster in Notebooks

Fact: High-end SSDs competitive, low-end notHigh-end SSD excels in read-intensive applicationsHDD excels in write-intensive applicationsHDD-NAND Hybrid architectures target best of both worlds, but at added cost

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Virus

General

File

App

XP

Data Transfer (MB/s)

SanDisk 32 GB Transcend 8 GB WD Scorpio 250 GB

Source: PC Mark 05

Virus Scan

General HDD Usage

File Copying

Application Loading

XP Startup

Read/W

rite%

90/10

83/17

50/50

60/40

99.5/.5


Myth #10: SSD Performance Faster for High-end

Fact: SSDs slower when using high-end applicationsLow-end applications tend to be read-intensiveHigh-end applications tend to be write-intensive

Writes are the Achilles heel of NAND/SSD in all applications

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000

High-End

Business

KB/sec.

WD Scorpio 250 GBTranscend 8 GBSanDisk 32 GB

Source: WinBench 99

Business Disk WinMark

High-End Disk WinMark


Myth #11: NAND Delivers Higher Areal Density

From Forecasted Industry Trends by IDC (HDD) and ITRS (NAND)

Fact: HDD delivers higher areal density


Key Roadmap Delivery Elements for NANDProcess

Technology Cell Size Bits/cell 2D to 3D

Process Technology

Slowing to two Year

Double (41%)

Cell Size Already

Minimized

>2 Bits/Cell Enters Across CY08-10

3D Unlikely in Timeframe

Source: www.asml.com: various customers of ASML

http://www.asml.com/


Technology Push: Increasing Process ComplexityCurrent NAND technology may approach practical limits in ~4 generations (~20nm) at ~256GbitNAND Tech. Challenges

LithographyNew materialsTight process tolerancesHigh aspect ratios, STI fill

NAND Device ChallengesParasitic capacitive couplingVpg >20V on chipReduced number of electrons on floating gate

Source: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory Summit


Bit Cell Size: HDD vs. NANDHDD has a Smaller Cell Area for a Given Feature Size


NAND Logical Scaling: SLC -> MLC

Sources: SanDisk: NAND at Center Stage, Eli Harari, Chairman and CEO, SanDisk, August 8, 2007, Flash Memory SummitMicron Technology, Inc.: Micron: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007, WinHEC Conference

Features SLC11

<100K25µs

200-300µs1.5-2ms

MLC-2Bits per cell 2ECC (per 512 bytes) 4+Endurance (ERASE/PROGRAM cycles) <10KtR (READ operation) 50µstPROG (PROGRAM operation) 600-900µstBERS (ERASE operation) 3ms

SLC

MLC-2

MLC-3

MLC-4


Most SSDs now use SLC for performance and reliabilityOnly MLC can challenge HDD capacity at cost$

2 bit MLC spec is 10% of SLC; what is the 3/4 bit MLC spec?

1 bit SLC 2 bit MLC 3 bit MLC 4 bit MLC HDD

100K>1016

10K

1K

0.1K?

Writ

e W

ear-

Out

Cyc

les

Sources: Micron Technology, Inc.: Flash Memory Technology Direction, Jim Cooke, Director, Applications Engineering, Micron Technology, May 2, 2007, WinHEC Conference

??

NAND Reliability Challenges


NAND

Value

NAND

Value

NAND Solution Cost: Roadmap vs. Market Dynamics

160 GB 250 GB 320 GB 500 GB $60 / $70 / $80

8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 128 GB $40 / $80 / $120

80 GB 120 GB 160 GB 250 GB $35 / $45 / $55

4 Die 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 64 GB $20 / $40 / $60

1 Die 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 16 GB $5 / $10 / $15

2HCY06 2HCY07 2HCY08 2HCY09

8 Die8 Die

4 Die4 Die

1 Die1 Die

Market Dynamics

Supply > DemandSupply ~ DemandDemand > Supply

Assume ThisAssume This


CY09 SSD Availability: Build $6B Fab?

$6B$6B

>$6B>$6BToshiba/SanDisk

Yokkaichi FabToshiba/SanDisk

Yokkaichi Fab

2010 SSD Forecast90M SSDs

720M Die per year95% yield

1.7M wafers per year$6B investment

Replace 276B GB of HDD800M SSDs

17B Die per year95% yield

38M wafers per year~$190B investment

Source: WD Analysis


Time-tested PC Storage Attribute Model (circa 1989)

Source: John Squire – Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals

ROI to invest billions of dollars in NAND fabs?

ROI to invest billions of dollars in NAND fabs?

Secondary. HDD is <3% of notebook weightSecondary. HDD is <3% of notebook weight

Secondary. HDD is <2% of notebook volumeSecondary. HDD is <2% of notebook volume

Can SSD last in computing apps?Can SSD last in computing apps?

HDDs are the clear winnerHDDs are the clear winnerHDDs are the clear winnerHDDs are the clear winner

Only high-end SSD challenges HDDOnly high-end SSD challenges HDD

Secondary. HDDs <6% of notebook powerSecondary. HDDs <6% of notebook power

Secondary. HDDs barely audible at 22 dBASecondary. HDDs barely audible at 22 dBASecondary. LCDs break firstSecondary. LCDs break first


Conclusions

SSDs offer:Two classes

Low-end = lower capacity, lower cost, lower performanceHigh-end = low capacity, high cost, high performance

PerformanceFast readsSlow writes

Similar battery lifeUnproven reliabilityLimited availability

Storage is a BIG business: $88 billion annually2009 SSD thesis of volume notebook adoption is flawedComputing storage market battle will be waged on HDD’s turf

Documents

Storage Market: Opportunities, Myths and Facts · Interleaving controller (4) H I G H L O W & SanDisk 1989 1 MB SSD 2.5” form-factor EIDE/PATA interface WD controller system SanDisk