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(- ) General Background: The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995 Complexity a Science at 30, Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54

Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

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. (- ∞ ) General Background: The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995 Complexity a Science at 30 , Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

(-∞) General Background:The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995

Complexity a Science at 30, Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54

Page 2: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

(-∞) General Background:The Microscopic Representation of Complex Macroscopic Phenomena, , Annual Reviews of Computational Physics II p 243, ed D. Stauffer, World Scientific 1995

Complexity a Science at 30, Europhysics News Feb-March 2003 p54

  

Fig 1 Map of Complexity and its Neighbouring Fields (for a more detailed interactive version see http://complexity.cogniview.com/MapIndex.html )

Page 3: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

Lev Thesis; The string market: Statistical Mechanics of Conventional Traders May Lead to Non-Conventional Market Behavior, Physica Scripta. Vol. T106, 41, 2003

Market 'spikes' are seen by traders as freak events.Physicists expect them, Thursday

October 3, 2002  

Stock market shock explainedPhysicists model recent trading frenzy.

Page 4: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

0) Social Critical Percolation, Social percolation models Physica A: 277 (1-2) (2000) 239 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/soc-per.ps GerardSocial Percolators and Self Organized Criticality in Handbook of Graphs and Networks: From the Genome to the Internet, p.113 eds. S. Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster, Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2002. Anti-Percolation; antivirus ; Parallel Networks (SN); herding (Tom help)

Page 5: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

Density of potential adopters: 26 /48 > 50%

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Percolation transition

From non-sales at all to a lot of sales

Infinitely sharp at infinite size system

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prob

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Effects of

Expectations Adaptation

Self tunning to criticality

Fractal fluctuations

and correlations

Page 20: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

0) Social Critical Percolation, Social percolation models Physica A: 277 (1-2) (2000) 239 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/soc-per.ps GerardSocial Percolators and Self Organized Criticality in Handbook of Graphs and Networks: From the Genome to the Internet, p.113 eds. S. Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster, Wiley-VCH, Berlin, 2002. Anti-Percolation; antivirus ; Parallel Networks (SN); herding (Tom help)

Page 21: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

Resistance

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Resistant

AcceptantAcceptedalready

Acceptant

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Resistant

Acceptedalready

Acceptant

Acceptant

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Resistant

Acceptedalready

Acceptant

Acceptant blocked

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Resistant

Acceptedalready

Acceptant

Acceptant blocked

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Resistance

Resistant

Acceptedalready

Acceptant

Acceptant

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“ANTI-Percolation”

Antivirus

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Parallel Networks

Consumption;

Home

Workplace

Expectations

Consumption;

No herding

Expectations

No herding

+home

work

Consumption+Expectations=Herding

Consumption;

Home

Workplace

Expectations

home

work

Theorem: no magnetization in 1 dimension

Ask Tom

Page 29: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

5) Artificial Creativity Creative Sparks Science 285: 1495-1496, 1999; http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/creative-sparks.htm

Communication at the speed of soundHerald Tribune Symbols set

Symbol 1 Symbol 2 Symbol 3

Product Message

Product space

P1

P2

P3 Matching by a linking operator

?

P4

Page 30: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

6) Diagonal Link and Novelty EmergenceTemplates of original innovation: Projecting original incremental innovations from intrinsic information (1999) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, May, Vol. 61/1 P. 1-12.

7) What are Stories made of?What Are Stories Made Of? Quantitative Categorical Deconstruction of Creation International Journal of Modern Physics C, Vol. 11, No. 4 (2000) 827-835 http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/0008192

Figure 2b: General scheme underlying the replacement version of the pictorial analogy template

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8) Traces of Mind; Emergence of Meaning in Drawings Emergence of Representation in Drawing: The Relation Between Kinematic and Referential Aspects Cognitive Development 13, 25-51 (1998)

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9) Microscopic Seers and the emergence of 3 d visionRestricted Ability to Recover 3D Global Motion from 1 D Motion Signals: Theoretical Observations, Vision Research 35 (1995) 569-578.

10) Complexity Faces the Music. Structures of the Mind and Universal Music Science 2001 June 29; 292: 2433 http://shum.huji.ac.il/~sorin/structures.htm

11) Solving Traffic Jams: Human Intervention or Self-Organization? International Journal of Modern Physics, Vol. 14, No. 8 p 1007

12) Living Tree of knowledge; DiscussionDistrict; Self-mapping, Self-Organization and Dynamical Ontology of Communities

Page 33: Stock market shock explained Physicists model recent trading frenzy

13) Networks and K-cores scaling

14) Genetic vs Internet network;

100

101

103

104

105

106

= -2.99

2) Clusters vs. cores

core #

K~(1+ L/M)

A

BC

DC

A

36546, Z=46

B

253270, Z=23

826, Z=2.83 442, Z=2.22

Surf->linkCopy of gene at other location