0 3 6 9 121.5Kilometers[

Wallowa County

Basal Area > 150 sq. ft. / ac.Canopy Closure > 50%Distance to Road < 1000 mSlope < 30 deg.

Wallowa

Enterprise

Joseph

Figu

re 2

0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.20.4Kilometers

Upper Joseph CreekWatershedWatershed

> 192 Sq. Ft. / Ac.

0

Predicted Basal Areafor Forested Pixels

Modeled FromUpper Joseph Creek Watershed Stands and Extrapolated

2008 Predicted Pixel Basal Area

Figu

re 1

Percentage of Land Cover Classified as Conifer Forest

100%

80%

rcen

tage 60%

Owner Type

Private/State

Industrial

F d l

Per

20%

40% Federal

Wilderness

0%

20%

Year1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Economic & Policy

“Shocks”

1994-1998

IGERT Integrative GraduateEducation and Research Traineeship

Research Summary

This study is focused on developing an integrated methodology to assess linkages between forest health and social, economic and ecological changes in the most northeastern part of Oregon, Wallowa County.

Key Questions and Methods

What are the patterns of land cover change in Wallowa County as measured by remotely sensed data from 1984 to 2010?

Can changes in forest cover be coupled to key features of forest health that are estimated through time using statistical models of stand-level characteristics scaled down to the pixel level?

Can simulations of individual land use decisions lend insight into how economic and policy shifts may a�ect trends in forest cover and health?

Summary of Findings

Coincident with several important economic and policy shifts in the mid-1990s a divergence in the rates of land cover change is observed between land owner types. This is particularly true for coniferous forests (Figure 1).

Models that use stand-level data to predict pixel-level proxies for forest health may be successfully employed to highlight chang-ing forest health conditions across Wallowa County and through time (Figure 2).

Acknowledgements and Funders

In collaboration with University of New Hampshire researchers: Dr. Joel Hartter, Dr. Russell Congalton, Dr. Mark Ducey, Dr. Lawrence Hamilton, Michael Campbell and Daniel Maynard

This research is part of the Communities and Forests (CAFOR) project in cooperation with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. Funding for this research was provided by the Disaster Resilience for Rural Communities Program, which is part of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (Award #2010-67023-21705). We are especially grateful to Nils Christo�erson at Wallowa Resources, Ken Gebhardt and Paul Survis at the U.S. Forest Service, Paul Oester at Oregon State University Forestry Extension, John Warness at Forest Capital, LLC, and Kevin Boston at Oregon State University’s Department of Forest Engineering, Resources & Management for all of their help and feedback on this research. Further assistance and data provided by Dawn Smith, Wallowa County, GIS Coordinator; Michael and Christie Shaw at the Oregon Department of Forestry in Wallowa County; and the Mazamas Foundation for preliminary research funding.

Web: www.clas.u�.edu/users/forrestEmail: forrest@u�.eduMobile: 352-219-4040

Forrest R. StevensPh.D. Candidate, QSE3 IGERT FellowDepartment of Geography, University of Florida

Sensing Change: Analyzing Interactions of Land Cover, Land Use and Forest Changes in Wallowa County, Oregon