Stephen W. Bieda III ATMO 529: OBJ ANALY/ATMO+REL SCI 5 December
2007 The Combined Pacific Variability Mode (henceforth CPVM) has a
known relationship with NAMS variability at onset. (referenced in
Castro et al. 2007, J. Climate) Further research by Bieda et al
suggests that the CPVM has a known relationship with transient
inverted troughs during the North American Monsoon Season (NAMS).
Negative (positive) CPVM provides more (less) of these transient
features during the season, with more (less) precipitation falling
over a northward (southward) deviated track. A predictive seasonal
parameter for the NAMS still has yet to be found. Source: NAME
Science Plan 2004 CPVM Combined Pacific Variability Mode: uses the
two (2) rotated EOFs of global SSTs which are associated with
interannual and interdecadal variability in the tropical Pacific
Ocean. (referenced in Castro et al. 2007, J. Climate) Source:
Castro et al. (2007) CPVM Positive CPVM Negative Years showing the
basic principle of onset relationship. Time Frame: All year for
ocean, JJA for Precipitation Years covered: Datasets Used:
International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set ( ): 1x1
dataset of monthly Ocean SSTs North American Regional Reanalysis (
): 0.3x0.3 dataset of monthly precipitation Region covered: NARR -
boundaries were 10N 42N, 122W 90W (NAME Tier II). Convert the
summer precipitation totals to SPI over the Tier II domain. Perform
the REOF analysis of global SSTs by the methods of Castro et al.
(2007a,b). Lag the dominant modes of SSTs (i.e. JFM, FMA, etc.), to
perform a hindcast of an averaged monsoon season. Im not convinced
that I personally calculated the CPVM correctly, due to the results
that were generated. The reason is that the correlation should be
increasing over the area as we approach the NAM season, rather than
remaining steady. Work will continue to correct the mistakes made,
and generate composites that will hopefully be more convincing.
Castro, C.L. R.A. Pielke Sr., J.O. Adegoke, 2007: Investigation of
the Summer Climate of the Contiguous U.S. and Mexico Using the
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part A: Model
Climatology ( ). J. Clim., 20, Castro, C.L., R.A. Pielke Sr., J.O.
Adegoke, S.D. Schubert, P.J. Pegion, 2007: Investigation of the
Summer Climate of the Contiguous U.S. and Mexico Using the Regional
Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part B: Model Climate
Variability. J. Clim., 20, Mesinger, F., G. DiMego, E. Kalnay, K.
Mitchell, P.C. Shafran, W. Ebisuzaki, D. Jovic, J. Woollen, E.
Rogers, E.H. Berbery, M.B. Ek, Y. Fan, R. Grumbine, W. Higgins, H.
Li, Y. Lin G. Manikin, D. Parrish, W. Shi, 2006: North American
Regional Reanalysis. Bull. AMS, 87, North American Monsoon
Experiment: Science and Implementation Plan 2004: NAME Science
Working Group [Available on line at Worley, S.J., S.D. Woodruff,
R.W. Reynolds, S.J. Lubker, and N. Lott, 2005: ICOADS Release 2.1
data and products. Int. J. Climatol. (CLIMAR-II Special Issue), 25,
(DOI: /joc.1166).CLIMAR-II Special Issue Thank you for your
time.
