Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker - Metal …...4 Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker April 2013 Metal Bulletin Research Unit Prices today Prices 7 days ago % ch wk/wk

l MBR Steel Raw Materials Index fell 1.1% this week on steep declines in iron ore prices as well as retreating scrap and freight rates. Coke prices held firm this week and we believe prices for Chinese export material have reached a near-term floor. The Global Steel Price Index fell at a similar rate.

l High crude steel output volumes in early April and weak sales data continue to highlight the difficulties faced by the Chinese steel market. As such, a growing number of major Chinese steel producers have made list price cuts for finished steel prices, which have put a strain on raw materials demand and pricing. We believe the coking coal and coke markets will stay weak over the coming few weeks. This is also agreed by delegates at a recent industry event in Beijing. Traders tell MBR they are bearish, suggesting that coking coal imports will likely be short of 2012 tonnage. Coking coal and coke prices were firm to down this week.

l Meanwhile, Chinese mills up to last week had been busy topping iron ore inventories, despite a growing steel stock overhang. As the notion of slower Chinese economic growth hit home that steel sale targets were likely to be missed, interest in iron ore tailed off. Week-on-week prices for Chinese import fines (Fe 63.5%) declined by 2.8% to $138.50/tonnes CFR, while those for pellets (65-66% Fe) slipped 3% to $161.50/tonne CFR.

l International scrap prices retreated this week, following the sluggish outlook for steel long product demand in Turkey, Europe, and the CIS remaining sluggish. Turkish buyers were expected to return to the US East Coast scrap market last week, but instead focused purchasing activity on Europe and the CIS regions to take advantage of more competitive prices.

MBR Steel Raw Materials Index versus MBR Global Steel Price Index*The decline in iron ore and scrap prices weighed on the Steel Raw Materials Index this week

Source: Metal Bulletin Research *2006=100

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Raw Materials Index

Global Steel Price Index [RHS]

A growing number of Chinese steel producers have made list price cuts for finished steel prices

Turkish scrap buyers focus purchasing activity on Europe and the CIS regions for better rates

Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker Regular analysis of coking coal, coke, iron ore, scrap, ferro-alloys, zinc and freight markets

MBR Steel Raw Materials Index* = 169.71 1.1%

Issue 26923 April 2013www.metalbulletinresearch.com

Steel Raw Materials: Market Tracker 1Coke and Coking Coal Highlights 6Iron Ore Highlights 8Ferro-alloy Highlights 10Zinc Highlights 11Scrap Highlights 12Iron Metallics Highlights 14Freight Highlights 15Key Global Economic Indicators 16

http://www.metalbulletinresearch.com/Article/2760863/Aluminium-Sheets-and-Extrusions-Weekly-Statistical-Data-Spreadsheets.html

Important information

This publication is afree sample issue.You need the latest publication to give you:l A clear instant view of current raw materials price trends from MBR’ s Raw Materials Index

l The very latest weekly and monthly average global market quotations for key scrap, ironore, coking coal and iron metallics prices

l Detailed analysis and insight into price trends, the key market players and theirprocurement strategies

lMonthly market and price forecast, as well as longer term quarterly forecasts for the comingyear in the key raw materials market

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4 Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

Unit Prices today

Prices 7 days ago

% ch wk/wk

Weekly price trend

Prices 4 weeks ago

% ch vs. last month

Coking Coal (1) Australian export FOB $/tonne 161 165 -2.4% DOWN 170 -5.3%US (low-vol) export FOB $/ton 155 160 -3.1% DOWN 165 -6.1%Chinese (domestic price - Shanxi Province) $/tonne 194 194 0.3% UP 195 -0.5%

Coke Chinese export FOB (3) $/tonne 267 265 0.8% UP 274 -2.6%Chinese domestic (2) $/tonne 220 224 -1.5% DOWN 237 -7.1%

Iron Ore Chinese fines import CFR $/tonne 139 143 -2.8% DOWN 137 1.5%Indian export FOB (63.5% Fe) $/tonne 126 130 -3.1% DOWN 125 1.0%Chinese pellet import CFR $/tonne 162 167 -3.0% DOWN 157 3.2%Chinese domestic concentrate (13) $/tonne 167 166 0.8% UP 167 -0.2%Chinese domestic pellet(14) $/tonne 181 182 -0.2% DOWN 182 -0.5%MBIO62, CFR Qingdao (62% Fe)(12) $/tonne 137.05 139.83 -2.0% DOWN 136.94 0.1%

Pig Iron CIS export (Baltic Sea) FOB $/tonne 433 433 0.0% FLAT 433 0.0%CIS export (Black Sea) FOB $/tonne 400 403 -0.6% DOWN 403 -0.6%Brazilian export (Vitoria) FOB $/tonne 405 405 0.0% FLAT 405 0.0%Brazilian export (Ponta da Madeira) FOB $/tonne 418 418 0.0% FLAT 418 0.0%EU import CFR $/tonne 454 454 0.0% FLAT 463 -1.9%

HBI Venezuelan export (5) $/tonne 303 303 0.0% FLAT 308 -1.6%

Ferrous scrap US domestic HMS No1 $/l.ton 365 365 0.0% FLAT 385 -5.2%US domestic shredded $/l.ton 386 386 0.0% FLAT 410 -5.9%US scrap export East Coast HMS No1 FOB $/tonne 366 368 -0.5% DOWN 378 -3.2%US domestic No1 Busheling $/l.ton 400 400 0.0% FLAT 420 -4.8%

EU Rotterdam HMS No1 FOB $/tonne 363 366 -0.8% DOWN 374 -2.9%EU Rotterdam HMS No1&2 FOB $/tonne 336 333 0.9% UP 350 -4.0%EU Rotterdam shredded FOB $/tonne 377 378 -0.3% DOWN 389 -3.1%

South Korean import HMS No1 CFR $/tonne 390 408 -4.4% DOWN 416 -6.3%Japan export HMS No2 FOB ¥/tonne 32,250 33,750 -4.4% DOWN 35,250 -8.5%Japan domestic delivered HMS No2 (Tokyo) ¥/tonne 32,250 32,750 -1.5% DOWN 34,250 -5.8%Japan domestic delivered HMS No2 (Osaka) ¥/tonne 33,250 33,750 -1.5% DOWN 34,750 -4.3%Chinese heavy domestic scrap Rmb/tonne 2,665 2,695 -1.1% DOWN 2,800 -4.8%Chinese HMS No. 1&2 (80:20) import from USA CFR $/tonne 420 420 0.0% FLAT 420 0.0%Turkish A3 import CFR (Izmir) $/tonne 386 386 0.0% FLAT 386 0.0%Black Sea A3 export FOB $/tonne 381 381 0.0% FLAT 381 0.0%MB ferrous scrap Turkey index CFR Iskenderun $/tonne 380.10 378.28 0.5% UP 391.67 -3.0%

Ferro-Silicon (75%) European free market €/tonne 1,165 1,165 0.0% FLAT 1,148 1.5%US import CFR $/lb 0.93 0.93 0.0% FLAT 0.95 -2.1%Japanese import CFR $/tonne 1,425 1,425 0.0% FLAT 1,440 -1.0%Chinese export FOB $/tonne 1,415 1,415 0.0% FLAT 1,405 0.7%

Ferro-Manganese European high-carbon (78%) €/tonne 820 820 0.0% FLAT 820 0.0%US high-carbon (78%) $/l. ton 1,118 1,118 0.0% FLAT 1,145 -2.4%US medium-carbon (80%) $/lb 0.89 0.89 0.0% FLAT 0.89 0.0%Chinese high-carbon FOB (75%) $/tonne 1,505 1,505 0.0% FLAT 1,505 0.0%

Silico-Manganese Chinese export (65% Mn, 17% Si) $/tonne 1,510 1,510 0.0% FLAT 1,510 0.0%European lumpy (65-75% Mn, 14-25% Si) €/tonne 880 880 0.0% FLAT 913 -3.6%US free market (65-75% Mn, 14-25% Si) $/lb 0.55 0.55 0.0% FLAT 0.55 0.0%

Ferro-Chrome European import (60%) $/lb 1.06 1.05 1.0% UP 1.04 1.9%(high-carbon) US import (60-65%) $/lb 1.02 1.02 0.0% FLAT 1.03 -1.0%

Chinese Import (50% Charge Chrome) CIF Shanghai $/lb 0.92 0.92 0.0% FLAT 0.92 0.0%

Ferro-Vanadium European destinations delivered $/kg 28.25 29.30 -3.6% DOWN 31.60 -10.6%(70-80%) US free market $/lb 15.03 15.03 0.0% FLAT 14.85 1.2%

Vanadium pentoxide CIF Europe $/lb 5.95 6.55 -9.2% DOWN 6.75 -11.9%

Ferro-Molybdenum European destinations delivered (65-70%) $/kg 28.25 27.30 3.5% UP 26.80 5.4%US free market (65-70%) $/lb 12.05 12.13 -0.6% DOWN 12.53 -3.8%

Molybdic Oxide European in-warehouse $/lb 11.30 11.05 2.3% UP 10.75 5.1%US in-warehouse $/lb 11.10 11.10 0.0% FLAT 11.15 -0.4%

Zinc LME spot $/tonne 1,858 1,842 0.9% UP 1,840 0.9%LME three-month $/tonne 1,895 1,879 0.8% UP 1,875 1.1%

Aluminium LME spot $/tonne 1,872 1,853 1.0% UP 1,847 1.4%LME three-month $/tonne 1,901 1,885 0.8% UP 1,877 1.3%

Tin LME spot $/tonne 21,000 20,906 0.4% UP 22,809 -7.9%LME three-month $/tonne 21,000 20,914 0.4% UP 22,815 -8.0%

LME Index (6) Index 319 317 0.5% UP 328 -2.8%

CRB Index spot (7) Index 476 476 0.0% FLAT 478 -0.4%

Freight JEHMA (8) Index 8,206 8,288 -1.0% DOWN 8,975 -8.6%BSI S2 Route (9) $/day 8,075 8,239 -2.0% DOWN 9,262 -12.8%Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Index 888 875 1.5% UP 933 -4.8%Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) Index 902 902 0.0% FLAT 978 -7.8%

Energy Crude oil WTI (10) $/barrel 88.01 86.68 1.5% UP 97.19 -9.4%Natural gas (Henry Hub) $/mmBtu 4.37 4.23 3.3% UP 4.08 7.1%

Exchange Rates Dollar : Euro $:€ 0.767 0.765 0.3% UP 0.772 -0.6%Dollar : Pound $:£ 0.657 0.655 0.4% UP 0.663 -0.9%Dollar : Yen $:¥ 99.7 98.0 1.7% UP 94.86 5.1%Dollar : Renminbi $:Rmb 6.18 6.18 0.0% UP 6.22 -0.5%Dollar : Rouble $:Rs 31.61 31.56 0.2% UP 30.82 2.6%

Note: (1) Hard coking coal spot price (FOB) (2) Basis second grade, average of all producing provinces (3) Basis Shanxi Province, first grade, <12.5% ash. (4) Basis Black Sea/Baltic Sea. (5) Basis FOB stowed (6) A weighted average of the six base metals, with January 1999 as the base. (7) Commodities Research Bureau is a US commodities research data firm, which has began an index tracking the price movements of 22 commodities in 1962. It currently uses 1967 as its base. (8) JE Hyde Handymax Index tracks changes in the following routes: Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East, Canakkale Trip Far East, Japan - SK/NOPAC or Australia, Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range, Antwerp - Skaw Trip US Gulf, USG Trip Skaw - Passero. (9) Delivery to South Korea/Japan, range for one Australian or TranspaCIFic round voyage, for a 35/40 day round trip, with redelivery to South Korea/Japan range 5% commission total. (10) West Texas Intermediate, Nymex. (12) Latest figures available at www.mbironoreindex.com. (13) Hebei region concentrates with ferrous content 66-69%, average of all producers. (14) Average of 9 producing regions, ferrous content ranging from 54-63.5%.* 2006=100. The MBR Raw Materials Index is a weighted measure of price movements of four of the most influential raw materials required for the steel making process, as well as of freight. The average price for 2006 was taken as the base value. As of 22/05/12, the CIS Pig Iron Export price was split into two regions; Baltic Sea and Black Sea. The Chinese import charge chrome price is the MB 50% Charge Chrome Index value.

Weekly Raw Materials Prices

April 2013 Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker 5

Metal Bulletin ResearchMetal Bulletin Research

Scrap - USHMS No 1(1) Midwest 350 376 360 360 359 365 371 365 371 378 378 397 395 385 372 349 365 397(2) East Coast 373 379 370 370 380 385 380 385 390 400 405 412 390 388 386 364 387 379(2) West Coast 370 365 360 360 365 370 370 375 380 380 380 406 391 379 374 353 369 375US shredded(1) Midwest 380 402 385 385 390 395 401 385 391 398 398 417 415 405 392 369 385 417(2) East Coast 373 378 375 375 385 390 385 390 395 405 410 417 395 393 391 369 392 384(2) West Coast 375 370 365 365 370 375 375 380 385 385 385 411 397 385 379 358 374 381

US No.1 busheling 382 410 387 387 395 405 405 400 405 410 410 430 430 420 403 383 397 432Scrap - AsiaJapan (Kanto price)

HMS No 2 ('000 ¥/tonne) 33 34 33 33 33 32 31 31 31 31 29 32 34 35 34 30 30 32(2) HMS No 2 export 351 360 330 330 330 327 327 327 340 340 357 365 367 369 342 311 336 351South Korea

HMS No 1 ('000 won/tonne) 380 367 382 387 387 393 393 398 398 393 380 393 392 374 395 380 382 374(2) HMS No 1 import 418 423 420 420 430 435 445 445 445 440 440 440 437 433 438 420 429 418Scrap - EuropeHMS No 1(3) Belgium 240 245 250 255 255 258 265 275 275 275 275 268 249 249 262 253 267 244

France 283 288 294 300 300 303 312 323 323 323 323 315 293 293 308 297 314 287Germany 270 275 281 286 286 290 297 309 309 309 309 301 280 280 295 283 300 274Italy 278 283 289 295 295 298 306 318 318 318 318 310 288 288 303 292 308 282Spain 261 266 271 277 277 280 288 299 299 299 299 291 271 270 285 274 290 265

(4) UK 236 250 255 260 260 263 270 281 281 281 281 273 254 254 268 258 272 249(2) Export 368 374 363 363 373 378 373 378 383 393 398 404 382 380 379 357 379 372Shredded(3) Belgium 260 265 270 276 276 279 287 297 297 297 297 290 270 269 284 273 289 264

France 298 303 309 315 315 319 328 340 340 340 340 331 308 308 325 312 330 302Germany 275 280 286 291 291 295 303 314 314 314 314 306 285 285 300 289 305 279Italy 293 298 304 310 310 314 322 334 334 334 334 326 303 303 319 307 325 297Spain 271 276 282 287 287 291 299 310 310 310 310 302 281 281 296 284 301 275

(4) UK 242 255 260 265 265 269 276 286 286 286 286 279 259 259 273 263 278 254(2) Export 381 388 373 373 383 388 383 388 393 403 408 414 392 390 389 367 389 382

Pig iron (2)

US import 416 421 415 420 425 425 430 435 435 435 435 453 469 432 435 409 423 431Korea import 435 440 420 435 440 455 455 455 445 437 433 460 455 451 447 432 426 436CIS export (Baltic Sea) FOB 431 430 425 425 420 420 430 435 435 440 440 467 485 441 438 407 426 444CIS export (Black Sea) FOB 404 401 400 400 395 395 405 410 410 415 415 433 455 411 412 383 402 414

HBI (2)

USA 360 360 370 375 379 378 381 384 387 385 384 385 377 369 388 362 374 361

Iron ore (2)

MBIO62 CFR Qingdao 156 141 135 130 125 110 110 130 135 125 130 140 140 140 140 125 130 12063.5% fines CFR China 156 144 138 133 128 113 113 133 138 128 133 143 143 143 143 128 133 123

Coking coal (2)

Chinese domestic (Shanxi) 209 198 195 190 190 200 200 195 190 196 200 202 203 197 206 192 196 173Australian HCC spot FOB 175 172 165 160 165 165 170 165 165 170 169 165 170 172 176 161 168 145US low-vol HCC spot FOB 167 166 163 160 160 160 163 160 160 168 165 160 162 165 173 156 165 140

Coke (2)

Chinese FOB export 311 290 265 270 270 285 285 280 280 290 285 285 280 289 289 274 285 250

Q2 14 Q4 14Apr-13Mar-13 May-13 Nov-13Oct-13Sep-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14

Notes: (1) $/long ton (2) $/tonne (3) €/tonne (4) £/tonne. South Korean domestic HMS No 1 ('000 won/tonne) includes a 10% VAT

Jul-13 Mar-14Aug-13

Monthly market prices and forecastFeb-13 Q3 14Jun-13 Q1 15

Steel Raw Material week-on-week price performanceSteelmakers' costs are mixed with energy costs increasing, but coal and iron ore costs are retreating

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

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MB Scrap Index

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BDI

Iron ore, scrap, and coking coal price forecasts ($/tonne)Oversupply and falling demand will undermine raw materials pricing in the near term


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Coke and Coking Coal Highlights

l Coking coal prices are flat to down… l …and pressure on prices remains l Coke price falls are stemmed

Coal markets remain cautiousInternational coking coal prices are stable to down this week, partly because of limited purchasing activity as many market participants attended the 11th Coaltrans China conference in Beijing early last/this week. At the same time, there is an increasingly negative outlook on steel demand given China’s lower than expected first-quarter economic activity. MBR’s benchmark coking coal spot prices adjusted lower by about $5/tonne last week, although we now hear that prices are generally steady going into the final week of the month.

We understand that demand is still stable as Chinese steel mills continue to ramp up production, taking daily output to a new record high during the first ten days of April, according to data from the Chinese Iron and Steel Association (CISA). This partly helped to halt the decline in coking coal prices recently. The firm demand has also contributed to inventory drawdowns. Nevertheless, rising steel output combined with a slower-than-expected improvement in finished steel demand has put Chinese buyers in a cautious mood, and they are unwilling to place new orders unless their stocks fall to more normal levels. Both the steel and iron ore markets in China lost ground this week, indicating that there is still pressure on coking coal and coke prices. A sluggish steel market would force steel mills to lower bid prices for steelmaking raw materials, while inventories of coking coal and coke are still near record highs. Therefore, we believe coking coal and coke prices will remain under pressure in the next few weeks, despite limited room to the downside. The market suggests we have reached a near-term floor. This was also agreed by most delegates attending the Beijing

Benchmark coking coal spot prices adjusted lower by about $5/tonne

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Total ferrous scrap exportsto Turkeyto Chinato rest of world


EU-15 coke imports calendar year 2012 (total=4.2m tonnes) Imports were down 21% from 2011

Poland57%

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17%

Russia9%

Hungary6%Columbia

6%Ukraine

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2%

Market Outlook Domestic Chinese and international coke and coking coal prices appear to be ending their respective falls in the second half of April. Price declines have ceased, or are slowing, and the general market sentiment is that there is little room for pricing to decline further.

At a recent industry event in Beijing, sentiment among delegates was cautious over the strength of economic growth in China and its effect on steel demand. Moreover, coking coal traders are bearish concerning domestic Chinese coking coal demand given high stock levels. Moreover, excess steel production in April, in an already oversupplied market, will squeeze steelmakers’ margins and affect the price paid for steelmaking raw materials.Key Prices

This week

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Chinese Coke export 267 0.5%Shanxi coking coal 194 0.0%Australia coking coal 161 0.0%

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EU-15 coking coal imports calendar year 2012 (total=34.5m tonnes) Imports were down more than 1.8m tonnes from 2011

Australia39%

USA38%

Russia9%

Canada5%Czech

Republic2%

Columbia1%

Others6%


Coking coal and coke markets will stay weak in the next few weeks, despite limited room to the downside

Mixed bag for coke and coking coal miners' Q1 bottom line

conference. Most traders we spoke to were bearish, saying their imports for coking coal have hardly reached last year's levels owing to high stocks and slack demand. At the same time, high coking coal inventories were bought at high prices, and some traders would like to wait for a recovery in coking coal prices before placing new orders. Some in the market held the view that China's market might not recover strongly in the first half of the year and were eyeing the boom season in August.

Miners report stronger first quarterOn the supply side, global miner BHP Billiton’s metallurgical coal production increased to 8.97m tonnes in January-March 2013, up by 22% year-on-year, despite adverse weather conditions at its mines in Queensland, Australia. Meanwhile, Anglo American produced a record 4.6m tonnes of metallurgical coal in the March 2013 quarter, up by 23% year-on-year. In contrast, Anglo-Australian mining major Rio Tinto reported a 15% year-on-year drop in its Q1 coking coal output.

It is also interesting to note that China has become a more important export destination for coking coal miners in USA and Russia. This may result in mounting competition between hard coking coal producers, with only the most profitable surviving. Coking coal prices in the international market could also be subdued. Coking coal deliveries from USA to China jumped to 0.6m tonnes in March, up 46.3% month on month, according to Chinese customs data. China also imported 0.84m tonnes of coking coal from Russia last month, up by 7.5% compared with a month before. The country imported 4.6m tonnes of coking coal during the month, compared with 5.4m tonnes in February.

Domestic coking coal prices unchanged but could be supported by output cutsMainstream prices of premium hard coking coal in northern China were in the range of Rmb1,150-1,270/tonne ($184-203/tonne), unchanged from a week before. Prices delivered to steel mills in northern China stood at Rmb1,230-1,350/tonne on Friday, also the same level as last Friday. After the price cut earlier this month, most coking coal miners in China have taken a wait-and-see attitude for firmer demand and improving prices. But rising inventories are putting additional sales under pressure, which is likely to result in further price cuts in the coming weeks. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), coking coal futures contracts slid further for the week, with the most traded September contract closing at Rmb1,163/tonne on April 19, down Rmb46/tonne from Rmb1,209/tonne on April 12.

China's coke prices end declinesChinese coke spot prices ended recent declines and stood flat this week, helped by the relatively stable coking coal prices. Additionally, coke producers continue to suspend output, giving some support to prices. Grade II coke prices were in the range of Rmb1,380-1,500/tonne, little changed from a week before. Grade I coke prices were at Rmb1,550-1,600/tonne, the same level as last Friday. Nevertheless, the most traded September coke contract on DCE fell by Rmb51/tonne week on week to Rmb1,548/tonne on Friday April 19, suggesting an overall weak sentiment. As there is no significant rise in coke demand and steel prices are in decline, we believe the coke market is likely to slip again in the next week or two, but improved fundamentals will keep risks to the downside in check.


Vale's first-quarter coking coal sales ('000 tonnes) Additional mines helped suport rising output

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Iron Ore Highlights

l Price weakness emanates from a broad commodity sell-offl Mills curb purchases as steel supply glut persists l China looks to shift the pricing powerbase away from the miners

Commodity sell-off hits iron ore pricesThe release of disappointing first quarter Chinese GDP data seemed to serve as an inflection point for iron ore last week. Mills up to this point had been busy building up inventory levels, despite a growing steel stock overhang. However, as the notion hit home that steel sales targets were likely to be missed, interest in iron ore tailed off. Week-on-week prices for Chinese import fines (Fe 63.5%) declined by 2.8% to $138.50/tonnes CFR, while those for pellets (65-66% Fe) followed suit decreasing by 3% to $161.50/tonne CFR.

Chinese domestic iron ore prices were less affected, but still fell. Those for concentrate slipped by 0.3% to $165.96/tonne, while pellets edged slightly lower by 0.2% to $180.44/tonne (average of a selection of prices).

Swaps tied to delivery in April traded between $137.35–138.75/tonne, decreasing around 0.3% compared with the previous week, while those for the third quarter also declined by 0.6%, to trade in a range of $119.40–120.75/tonne. On the China Beijing International Mining Exchange, Rio Tinto was understood to have concluded a tender for 165,000

Market Outlook Iron ore prices had somewhat of a delayed reaction to the release of slower than expected first quarter Chinese GDP data during the first half of the week. However, as bearish sentiment prevailed, prices re-orientated and sank to end the week lower. Buyers are cautious, noting that the Achilles heel to any price improvement is weak steel demand fundamentals. Yet there is no imminent relief - steel sales are sluggish, prompting small and mid-sized mills to limit their stockpiles of iron ore, while burdened with large/high inventories of finished steel products.

Although iron ore prices set in their current range appear good value relative to lower port stocks, it should not be overlooked that global mine supply is expanding. In addition end-user demand from the Chinese construction sector is likely to slow as the summer sets in, while support from western economies is weak. Thus, we expect Chinese steel mills to abstain from participating in the market over the coming weeks, prompting sellers to tempt them back sooner with bigger discounts.

Chinese mills up to this point had been busy topping inventory levels, despite a growing steel stock overhang

Key PricesThis

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MBIO62 137.05 -1.0%Chinese fines import (63.5%) 139 -1.0%Chinese pellet imports (65-66%) 162 -1.0%

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respect of the price-stock trendline

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y-axis: iron ore fines price China 63.5% CFR main China ports ($/tonne)

x-axis: Chinese port stocks (m tonnes)


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High crude steel output volumes and weak sales data continue to highlight the difficulties faced by the steel market

Chinese authorities will refuse to grant new licences to iron ore importers unless they participate in the domestic trading platform

tonnes of Pilbara Blend fines with laycan May 2-11 for $137.95/tonne CFR, climbing around 1.5% when compared with a similar sale the previous week.

Market is undermined by stubbornly high steel supply and poor up-takeHigh crude steel output volumes in early April and weak sales data continue to highlight the difficulties faced by the steel market. As such, a growing number of major Chinese steel producers have made list price cuts, while the most-traded October rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slid 4.9% week-on-week to Rmb3,669/tonne ($588/tonne). Despite the snap-back in demand, Chinese iron ore port inventory levels continued to retreat, reaching 75.4m tonnes.

China's economic growth is forecast at 7.8% this year, pointing to a pick-up in activity in the second quarter as lending and investment in the second half of 2012 bears fruit. Yet many traders are bewildered as to why the iron ore price remains 13% below this year's peak, especially since the second quarter is a seasonally busy period for the Chinese construction sector. One survey showed that neither mills nor traders have seen a clear improvement in demand, and this goes some way in illustrating the perilous state of the market in a quarter that would otherwise serve iron ore prices well.

Seaborne supply to China likely to strengthenAs expected, first quarter iron ore production data from Rio Tinto showed a quarter-on-quarter decline, owing to the cyclone season. Total global output from the miner decreased by 8% to 61.2m tonnes, while shipments fell by 17% to 57.3m tonnes. However, when compared with the same period a year ago, production and shipments increased by 4% and 7%, respectively.

Operations, according to the company, are now running at full capacity of 237m tonnes/year. Moreover, the latest read on Chinese imports suggests that seaborne material is having little difficulty reaching the country. China imported 64.55m tonnes of iron ore in March and 56.42m tonnes in the holiday month of February, which was a 13.9% drop from January’s 65.54m tonnes, according to customs data. March arrivals from Australia, the largest supplier, gained 27.5% month-on-month to 32.17m tonnes.

China positions for greater market controlIn an approach to exert greater control over the Chinese iron ore market, the authorities will refuse to grant new licences to iron ore importers unless they participate in the domestic trading platform. The scheme is likely to target the pricing power of the major miners by encouraging better pricing transparency. However, despite previous efforts to impose controls on the iron ore market, interest groups within the industry have often found ways around such measures.

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, Steelhome

Chinese port stocks Weekly levels fall 0.5m to 75.4m tonnes, although

prospects build for an increase

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% o

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Total Indian [RHS]


OTC Iron Ore Swaps Forward Curve Short-term prices become range bound, reflecting an

uncertain outlook

115120125130135140145150155160165

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Market Outlook

Ferro-alloy Highlights

l European molybdenum prices move higher on supply concerns…l…but US and Chinese prices fail to reactl South African supply reductions reflected in European ferro-chrome prices

European molybdenum prices react to mine outageThe recent wall slide and mine closure at Kennecott Utah Copper’s Bingham Canyon mine in Utah, USA, has forced the Rio Tinto division to declare force majeure. The mine outage compounds supply concerns related to the Chilean port strikes. While the port strikes have been resolved, molybdenum is still reportedly stalled in ports, affecting supply availability. European ferro-molybdenum prices have improved to $28.00-28.50/kg over the past week on supply concerns, from $27.20-27.40/kg previously. European molybdic oxide prices have moved higher to $11.25-11.35/lb from $11.00-11.10/lb previously.

US molybdenum prices have not reacted in the same way to the news, instead, ferro-molybdenum prices have dipped from $11.90-12.35/lb in recent weeks to $11.75-12.35/lb this week. Meanwhile, Chinese molybdenum concentrates prices are unchanged at Rmb1,560-1,580/mtu ($252-256/mtu) in warehouse.

South African supply concerns push European ferro-chrome prices higherSouth African charge chrome producers are extending their power buy-back capacity shutdowns into April and May. The extended outages are estimated to result in the loss of approximately an additional 200,000 tonnes of charge chrome in the second quarter, compared to the loss of around 350,000 tonnes of output in the first quarter of 2013. We understand that all of the major South African chrome producers will continue to operate reduced furnaces in the present quarter.

Although demand from stainless steelmakers in Europe continues to disappoint, South African ferro-chrome stocks are low, and supply concerns are helping to drive European ferro-chrome prices higher.

European high-carbon ferro-chrome spot market prices have improved to $1.04-1.08/lb this week from $1.02-1.08/lb previously. We are not seeing the same momentum in other markets, however. Chinese charge chrome prices are holding at around $0.92/lb, while US high-carbon ferro-chrome spot market prices are unchanged at $1.00-1.03/lb, with reports of offers of Indian material into the USA at prices as low as $0.98/lb.

Ferro-alloy prices continue to reflect supply-side developments far more than demand-side developments, which remain notably sluggish. This week we are seeing upward momentum in both ferro-molybdenum prices and European ferro-chrome prices, reflecting supply outages in those markets.

We maintain the view that in the absence of a significant improvement in underlying demand for ferro-alloys from steelmakers, supply-side factors will continue to drive ferro-alloy prices. A sharp improvement in underlying consumption seems increasingly unlikely given disappointing economic growth in China, the USA, and Europe.

Mine outage in Utah compounds supply concerns related to the Chilean port strikes

Prices for European high-carbon ferro-chrome spot market have improved


EU-27 crude steel production & FeMo price European steel producers reach out into the market on

perceived tight supply

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EU-27 steel production ('000 tonnes) [LHS]

FeMo European, 65-70% Mo ($/kg) [RHS]

Key PricesThis

weekNext week

US import FeSi 0.93 0%EU import FeCr 1.06 0%US free market FeMo 12.05 0%Chinese export FeCr 0.92 0%

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European FeCr price

Stronger premiums in Asia on tightness created by financial demandSpot premiums have been nudging higher recently, particularly in Asia. Supply is fairly tight in the region, and there is demand from China. Although at first sight these indicators appear positive in terms of zinc’s fundamentals, the reality is that the tightness has been created by major trading companies hoarding metal in warehouse rent deals, while the Chinese demand is driven by an improving arbitrage for importers who are largely seeking metal for financing purposes, not consumption. That said, behind the scenes we believe that the lower prices of late may be forcing Chinese zinc producers to curtail output somewhat, while usage levels should be increasing in line with seasonal patterns and improving economic indicators. So although financial demand has made it difficult to read the real physical fundamentals, we believe that underlying supply and demand in China have fallen into balance, from oversupply previously. Depending on the scale of production cutbacks, the Chinese market may even be moving into deficit. Falling SHFE stocks may be a symptom of this; they have fallen by 20,964 tonnes (6.4%) over the past six weeks, and by 14,763 tonnes (4.6%) in the last two. Steady financial demand, improving consumer demand and weakening production should give rise to higher premiums in the coming weeks. By our records, Shanghai spot market quotes were up 14% last week to an average of $145/tonne, while a level of $100-140/tonne is seen in Singapore and Johor, and $150/tonne in Gwangyang.

Elsewhere, physical spot premiums have not changed recently, averaging $176/tonne in the USA and $135/tonne in Europe – both unmoved for most, if not all, of the year so far. In each region, at least one LME warehouse location is acting as a magnet for available metal units (Antwerp in Europe and New Orleans in the USA), which is keeping the zinc market tight.


Market Outlook

Zinc Highlights

l Prices relatively resilient in the wake of the commodities sell-offl Premiums creeping higher, especially in Asia l Chinese supply/demand moving back to balance

Zinc was one of the more resilient metals last week as prices for the LME’s flagship copper contract continued to plunge. Zinc’s earlier reversal from the early February highs meant that it had already returned to marginal cost support, whereas copper has been trading at a significant premium and so the risk/reward of selling or shorting copper has been far more attractive to the speculators driving the commodity sell-off that trying to push the likes of zinc any lower. This helps to confirm that a base should now be in place for zinc prices around the $1,850/tonne level.

Premiums are also seen well supported, and are even pushing higher in Asia. Prices may follow in the coming weeks, supported by physical tightness, but it would need a trend-change in copper before zinc and the other metals can sustain gains themselves.

Although financial demand has made it difficult to read the real physical fundamentals, we believe that underlying supply and demand in China have fallen into balance, from oversupply previouslyDepending on the scale of production cutbacks the Chinese market may even be moving into deficit

Source: LME, Metal Bulletin Research

LME three-month official zinc price daily basis

1,500

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2,400

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3-month price

100-day MA

200-day MA

$/to

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Source: LME, Metal Bulletin Research

Total LME zinc stocks and cancelled warrants

250

360

470

580

690

800

910

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Cancelled warrants [RHS]

LME stocks [LHS]

'000 tonne % of total tonnage

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2,500

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Q2 11

Q3 11

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

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Zinc price forecast ($/tonne)

Key PricesThis

weekNext week

LME spot 1,858 -2%LME three month 1,895 -2%



Market Outlook

Scrap Highlights

l Turkish merchants turn to the EU and CIS markets for scrap material l US East Cost export prices are likely to retreat as demand erodes l Asian HMS No.1 import prices fall sharply this month

Turkish merchants focus scrap purchasing activity on the EU and CIS export marketsUS East Coast HMS No.1 export prices recorded slight declines this week, falling by an additional $2/tonne so far this month. Overall, US East Coast HMS No.1 export prices have fallen by $13/tonne in April with further declines expected, as Turkish merchants return to the deep-sea market to purchase material to meet melting requirements next month. Turkish scrap merchants, who were expected to return to the US East Coast scrap market last week, instead turned their buying attention to the CIS and EU scrap markets.

Turkish long products prices, specifically rebar and billet export prices, have continually weakened over the month. Both rebar and billet export prices have recorded gradual declines so far this month, with billet export prices falling $7/tonne and rebar export prices falling $20/tonne FOB. We believe the weakness in long product prices stems from weakening demand and retreating raw material costs. Turkish scrap merchants’ decisions to purchase scrap material from the CIS and Europe, suggest that mills are looking for the most competitive prices on the market.

International scrap prices retreated this week, as steel long products demand in Turkey, Europe, and the CIS remained sluggish. Turkish merchants who were expected to return to the US East Coast scrap market last week, instead focused purchasing activity on Europe and the CIS regions, in order to take advantage of more competitive prices. So far this month US East Coast exporters have seen little to no activity in the deep-sea market, leading MBR to believe that Turkish merchants will most likely succeed in their negotiations to push prices down $5-10/tonne over the remainder of the month.

In China, high inventory levels continued to erode pricing strength, as heavy scrap prices in eastern China retreated an additional Rmb30/tonne this week. Similar price weakness was seen in the Southeast Asian markets with Asian HMS No.1 import prices falling to levels last seen in late December 2012.

Turkish scrap merchants turned their buying attention to the CIS and EU scrap markets

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Germany HMS No. 1(€/tonne)


Key PricesThis

weekNext week

US HMS No.1 365 -0.5%Japan HMS No.2 (¥) 32,250 0.0%Turkish A3 import 386 0.0%Rotterdam HMS No.1 363 -0.5%


South Korean Scrap Imports ('000 tonnes) Between January and February 2013 South Korean scrap

imports fell 5.49% year-on-year, led by a decline in US

sourced scrap

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Other Russia USA Japan


International rebar export prices, $/tonne Although monthly average Turkish rebar export prices

stabilised in March, we expect a moderate decline in April

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RussiaUkraineTurkey



Turkish merchants have purchased little to no scrap from US East Coast exporters so far this month, which leads MBR to believe that merchants will most likely negotiate for lower US export prices later this month. The recent scrap purchases will assist Turkish mill in building up their reportedly low inventory levels earlier this month; however, we do not believe that the recent surge in scrap buying activity will be enough to meet melting requirements in May. As a result, we believe that mills will turn their attention to negotiating lower US East Scrap export prices over the remainder of the month. Market participants indicate that so far this month, US East Coast scrap exporters have only secured the sale of one bulk cargo for the month.

This leads MBR to believe that Turkish merchants will most likely succeed in their attempts to negotiate for lower scrap prices over the remainder of the month. We believe this lack in purchasing activity, combined with the eroding long products export market in Turkey, will result in a $5-10/tonne decline in US East Coast scrap export prices over the next two weeks.

Heavy scrap prices in China record further declinesHeavy scrap prices in eastern China continued to fall this week as prices recorded a minor decline of Rmb30/tonne ($4.9/tonne), leaving prices in a range between Rmb2,600-2,730/tonne ($421-442/tonne) with tax delivered to high inventory levels. As noted in last week’s analysis, we believe that the continuation of downward scrap prices this week further highlights high inventory levels at mills. As noted last week, scrap stocks at China’s Shagang mill are believed to be stocked at a level to meet melting requirements for the next two months of steel production.

Producers are expected to continue lowering scrap purchasing prices, along with scaling back production levels. Over the remainder of the month we expect that scrap prices in eastern China will continue to retreat, as demand for steel products remains thin. Adequate inventory levels, combined with stable long products demand, will keep heavy scrap prices flat to slightly down over the next week.

Scrap import prices to Asia record sharp declines in late April Asian import HMS No.1 scrap import prices recorded a steep decline this week, falling $18/tonne CFR, a price level last seen in late December 2012. Scrap buyers in Southeast Asia reportedly pushed purchasing prices down or decided to remain out of the market this month. Some mills have decided to hold off from purchasing material this month, as they anticipate a pick-up in scrap collection rates in May, which will further erode scrap prices throughout the region. Scrap purchase volumes have been reduced and sourced to neighbouring countries. In South Korea for instance, scrap imports fell by 5.49% year-on-year between January and February 2013, as US-sourced purchase volumes fell sharply and purchase volumes from Japan rose.

Turkish merchants have purchased little to no scrap from US East Coast exporters so far this month

We expect that scrap prices in eastern China will continue to retreat, as demand for steel products remains thin


January-November 2011 Turkish scrap imports by source - the USA continued to be the

leading supplier of scrap material to Turkey with further

growth expected in 2013


January - November 2012 Turkish scrap imports by source In 2012 total Turkish imports increase by 4.52% year-on-

year

USA26%

CIS23%

MENA4%

Eurozone17%

UK9%

Romania10%

Other11% USA

27%

CIS20%

MENA3%

Eurozone21%

UK11%

Romania8%

Other10%


Market Outlook

Iron Metallics Highlights

l CIS and Indian prices falter marginally...l ...while stability continues to characterise other regions l Rapid decline in flat-rolled market suggests metallics prices will follow suit

CIS Baltic and Black sea pig iron prices remain firms this week Flat in China Following three weeks of stability, pig iron prices out of the CIS region fell slightly in the past week, slipping to a narrow range around $400/tonne FOB Black Sea port; although there was again no change recorded out of the Baltic ports, where steelmaking grades remain in a range of $425-440/tonne FOB. While relative weakness in iron ore and coking coal prices have put downward pressure on integrated metallics, we believe that demand issues have had a larger impact. Exports of downstream products have been under greater pressure out of Black Sea ports in recent weeks with first billet, at the turn of the month, and now slab prices faltering amid an increasingly depressed flat-rolled steel market outlook.

Indeed, slab export prices have fallen by more than $25/tonne FOB during the past week alone to find themselves at a comparatively low premium of under $75/tonne FOB ahead of pig iron, compared to an average during the past year of more than $110/tonne FOB. The principal problem for regional exporters is that finished steel production has been rising in excess of underlying demand requirements during recent months. It is particularly apparent in China, where official data records show that Chinese finished steel output has risen by more than 10% year-on-year, far higher even than pig iron or steel production in the country, which has so far beaten our and other forecasters expectations. As end-users have been reluctant to buy, however, steel mills and distributors have excess material to sell, and

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South Korea pig iron(CFR, $/tonne)


Key PricesThis

weekNext week

CIS pig iron export 433 -0.5%Brazil export FOB 405 0.0%Latin America HBI FOB 303 0.0%

As is often the case, CIS Black Sea export prices were the first to react to faltering conditions in other raw materials and, in our view more importantly, finished steel markets, particularly flat-rolled. However, mild declines here and in India could represent the calm before the storm, as finished prices are falling quickly and we expect further declines will occur in the next few weeks.

The seasonal rally in finished steel prices has been entirely undone in the past month and as steelmakers will be forced to curb production, the raw material demand outlook is getting worse. Nonetheless, US inspired recovery from the second half of the year suggests the downturn could prove temporary.


Exports of downstream products have been under greater pressure out of Black Sea ports recently

Metallics prices are yet to be impacted by worsening flat-rolled market conditions


Pig iron production China, '000 tonnes Pig iron production hit a high in January 2013 at 58.74m

tonnes

-25-20-15-10-50510152025

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China pig iron production ('000 tonnes) [LHS]% change m-o-m [RHS]

are reducing production accordingly; a factor which we would expect will put downward pressure on crude steel and related metallics’ demand in the short term.

Slight rebound in spot iron ore prices will not support pig iron prices this weekLatin American exporters are having similar troubles downstream, as reflected in the latest slab assessments, which have slipped by $20/tonne FOB in the past week. Nonetheless, metallics prices themselves, whether for pig iron out of different parts of Brazil or HBI out of Venezuela are yet to be affected by the worsening flat-rolled market conditions. While we do believe that the important US market will regain momentum from the second half of the year, we expect that Latin American export prices are on course to soften in the interim.


Freight Highlights

l Capesize markets softened again l Better activity in panamax sizes…l …thanks to grain shipments

This WeekPrevious

Week% change

w/wLast Month %change m/m Last Year %change y/y

SSY Atlantic Capesize Index 5,146 5,199 -1.0% 5,308 -3% 6,021 -15%SSY Pacific Capesize Index 4,620 4,659 -0.8% 4,692 -2% 5,113 -10%

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 888 875 1.5% 933 -5% 1,138 -22%Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 1,234 1,265 -2.5% 1,284 -4% 1,614 -24%Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) 1,196 1,112 7.6% 1,208 -1% 1,322 -10%Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) 902 902 0.0% 978 -8% 1,112 -19%Baltic Handysize Index (BHI) 539 526 2.5% 542 -1% 616 -13%

Source: SSY, The Baltic Exchange

Freight Rates

This Week Previous Week

% change w/w

Last Month %change m/m Last Year %change y/y

SSY Capesize Pacific ($/tonne)Rizhao/Rotterdam 9.15 9.20 -0.5% 9.20 -1% 9.90 -8%Dampier/Qingdao 7.20 7.30 -1.4% 7.20 0% 7.80 -8%Saldahna Bay/ Qingdao 12.75 12.90 -1.2% 13.15 -3% 14.75 -14%Richards Bay/Kwangyang 11.70 11.80 -0.8% 11.95 -2% 13.00 -10%Cape Lambert/Rotterdam 9.80 9.85 -0.5% 9.90 -1% 10.50 -7%NSW 15.2M/Japan 10.35 10.45 -1.0% 10.50 -1% 11.40 -9%Queensland/Rotterdam 12.75 12.80 -0.4% 12.85 -1% 13.95 -9%NSW 15.2M/South Korea 10.30 10.40 -1.0% 10.40 -1% 11.50 -10%T/C Transpacific round 0.97 0.97 0.0% 1.06 -8% 1.15 -16%SSY Capesize Atlantic ($/tonne)Narvik/Rotterdam 3.50 3.60 -2.8% 3.70 -5% 3.75 -7%Tubarao/Rotterdam 7.10 7.15 -0.7% 7.50 -5% 8.60 -17%Richards Bay/Rotterdam 6.25 6.25 0.0% 6.30 -1% 8.50 -26%Hampton Roads/Rotterdam 8.45 8.50 -0.6% 8.70 -3% 9.70 -13%Puerto Bolivar/Rotterdam 8.35 8.45 -1.2% 8.80 -5% 9.15 -9%Nouadibou/Taranto P2 5.50 5.60 -1.8% 5.80 -5% 5.90 -7%Tubarao/Japan 17.40 17.40 0.0% 17.40 0% 21.00 -17%Tubarao/Beilun+Baoshan 17.50 17.50 0.0% 17.50 0% 21.15 -17%T/C Trip Cont/Far East 3.45 3.51 -1.7% 3.53 -2% 4.46 -23%T/C Transatlantic round 0.82 0.88 -6.8% 0.93 -12% 0.66 24%JEHSUP 52k DWT Supramax ($/day)del Black Sea, redel Singapore-South Japan 13,700 13,600 0.7% 13,000 5% 14,700 -7%del US Gulf, redel Skaw-Passero 18,250 18,500 -1.4% 21,600 -16% 16,500 11%del Far east, redel Atlantic 4,500 4,500 0.0% 4,500 0% 5,000 -10%del to make Australia, redel India 5,600 5,500 1.8% 6,900 -19% 10,500 -47%JEHMA 45k DWT Handysize ($/day)Antwerp - Skaw Trip Far East 11,500 11,500 0.0% 11,500 0% 11,500 0%Canakkale Trip Far East 11,450 11,350 0.9% 10,750 7% 11,950 -4%Japan - SK / NOPAC or Australia rv 7,750 8,000 -3.1% 9,500 -18% 8,000 -3%Japan - SK Trip Gib - Skaw range 3,750 3,750 0.0% 3,750 0% 4,250 -12%Antwerp - Skaw Trip US Gulf 3,700 3,700 0.0% 3,700 0% 3,000 23%USG Trip Skaw - Passero 16,000 16,250 -1.5% 19,350 -17% 14,250 12%Source: SSY, ICAP. Italic entries are estimates

Freight Indices

Market Outlook Volumes increased in the capesize markets, although at lower rates than in previous weeks. Rates are approaching the lowest point of the year and are expected to continue to soften and move within a narrow band at low levels for at least the next few weeks. Delays at Australia’s main coal and iron ore ports continued to decline this week with Gladstone and Dalrymple Bay the only ports registering an increase in the number of ships at port or at anchor. At the start of this current week, activity remains quiet in both the Pacific and Atlantic markets

Panamax rates in the Atlantic climbed this week on a shortage of available capacity in the Baltic causing a ripple across the market. Grain loading at South American ports slowed to less than 15 vessels this week headed to Asia, but rates still managed to rise. Availability for early May looks to be rising which is providing a slightly bearish tone for the market for the coming weeks. For now, the grain activity from South America continues to support rates in the Atlantic as well as the Pacific markets. Rates in the Pacific were held steady as a result of the grain shipments. Without them, the market would be down.

Handysize activity was slower in the Pacific than in the Atlantic market. Grain shipments to north and west Africa have been steady as well as scrap to between the EU and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the presence of ice in Russia has upheld rates there.

Index This

weekPrice direction

Baltic Dry 888 Baltic Capesize 1,234 Baltic Panamax 1,196

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2,200

2,700

Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13

Baltic Capesize Index (BCI)

Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)

Baltic Supramax Index (BSI)



Key Global Economic Indicators

Unit 2011 2012 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13JapanIndustrial production y/y % -2.3 -0.7 5.3 -4.6 -6.7 7.09- 5.08- - Motor vehicle production y/y % -12.3 33.9 84.5 3.0 -12.7 9.92- 15.13- - CPI y/y % -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.30- 0.60- - Construction: new build started y/y % 4.3 5.3 2.9 2.6 12.9 4.36 9.45 - ChinaIndustrial production: MV y/y % 2.5 8.7 15.6 10.2 4.2 47.7 16.4- 13.1 PMI:Mfg N/A 51.4 50.8 51.3 49.7 50.5 50.4 50.1 50.9 CPI y/y % 5.4 2.7 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.2 2.1 FDI: y/y construction y/y % 41.44 55.21 50.2 30.5 23.0 39.0- 39.0- 23.9-

Industrial production1 y/y % 13.7 10.8 9.5 9.1 10.0 - - 8.9 USAIndustrial production y/y % 2.5 3.7 4.6 3.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.5 Automobile production y/y % 51.4 39.0 53.8 41.5 17.2 15.7 5.1 - Inventories: sales ratio N/A 5.4 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 - Private housing starts y/y % 5.2 28.8 28.5 25.2 36.7 24.4 33.4 47.9 CPI y/y % 13.7 3.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 ISM: manufacturing PMI N/A 55.2 51.8 52.5 50.9 50.6 53.1 54.2 51.3 EUIndustrial production y/y % 3.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.9 -2.7 2.46- 2.40- - Construction production y/y % -0.1 -5.0 -4.7 -5.3 -6.1 8.15- 1.35- - CPI y/y % 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 1.99 1.85 1.72 BrazilIndustrial production y/y % 0.4 -2.6 -4.4 -2.1 -0.5 3.16 0.81- - Mfg: capacity utilisation (SA) % 82.1 81.3 81.0 81.0 81.2 - - - CPI y/y % 6.6 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.6RussiaIndustrial production y/y % 4.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 1.6 0.80- 2.19- 2.52 Fixed capital investment y/y % 15.8 16.4 18.4 13.2 9.6 8.73 5.87 6.30 CPI y/y % 8.5 5.1 3.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.0IndiaIndustrial production y/y % 4.8 0.8 -0.1 0.4 2.3 2.36 0.57 - Industrial production: mining y/y % -1.7 -1.4 -1.7 -0.6 -3.0 2.17- 8.15- - Motor vehicle production y/y % 16.6 4.6 7.6 -2.4 2.1 8.0 -3.3 -8.7Foreign inward investment: direct y/y % 122.6 17.7 -52.7 24.8 -10.1 22.52 3.62- - WPI y/y % 9.5 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.3 7.31 6.84 5.96 GermanyIndustrial production y/y % 8 -1 -1.0 -1.8 -2.8 -1.24 -5.31 - Motor vehicles y/y % 14 1 1.8 1.7 -4.6 5.49- 10.62- - Construction: new builds started unit 2,151 2,048 2229 2235 1972 1,723 - - FranceIndustrial production y/y % 2 -3 -4.4 -2.1 -2.8 -2.8 -6.3 - Construction: new building started sq m '000 2,282 1,989 1863 1994 2079 1,987 2,042 - UKIndustrial production y/y % -1.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.5 -2.3 0.82- 5.18- - Vehicle production: passenger y/y % 5.5 9.6 16.9 2.5 5.9 1.18 0.74- - Vehicle production: commercial y/y % -1.6 -5.8 -8.0 -1.1 -5.8 20.54- 17.09- - CPI y/y % 4.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.73 2.79 2.78 ItalyIndustrial production y/y % 1.4 -6.5 -7.3 -5.1 -7.0 3.37- - - IP: motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers y/y % 1.5 -16.2 -15.0 -18.3 -15.9 17.45- - - CanadaIndustrial production y/y % 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.5 - - - PMI % 59.3 58.4 57.9 64.2 49.3 54.8 51.6 64.4TurkeyIndustrial production y/y % 9.2 2.3 3.2 1.8 1.4 2.26 1.59 - Motor vehicle production y/y % 9.4 -9.9 -8.4 -15.5 -9.5 -3.0 -2.5 -3.7CPI y/y % 6.5 8.9 9.4 9.0 6.8 7.3 7.0 7.3MexicoIndustrial production y/y % 4.0 3.1 3.9 3.9 1.7 0.39 1.20 - Motor vehicle production y/y % 13.2 9.2 10.1 8.6 10.7 19.81 1.60 - Construction output MXN mn 15,987.1 17,129.6 16,727 17,304 18,323 15,077.66 - - South KoreaIndustrial production y/y % 7.0 1.1 1.2 -1.0 -0.1 7.56 9.26- - Motor vehicle production y/y % 9.3 -1.6 -1.2 -14.4 -2.0 23.3 -19.9 -13.1Buildings commenced y/y % 5.7 -2.7 -2.5 -5.8 -13.8 12.98- 22.59- -

Sources: CEIC. Notes: SA: seasonally adjusted, CPI: Consumer Price Index, PMI: Purchasing Managers Index, FCI: Fixed Capital Investment. e denotes a quarter-to-date value. 1 For chart purposes, the January data point for Chinese Industrial Production is calculated as an average of the December and February value.

Selected demand indicators

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Feb 10

May 10

Aug 10

Nov 10

Feb 11

May 11

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

May 12

Aug 12

Nov 12

Feb 13

Industrial production (y/y %)

Japan USA Germany China

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Feb 10

May 10

Aug 10

Nov 10

Feb 11

May 11

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

May 12

Aug 12

Nov 12

Feb 13

Consumer Price Index (y/y %)

USA EU 27 China

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Feb 10

May 10

Aug 10

Nov 10

Feb 11

May 11

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

May 12

Aug 12

Nov 12

Feb 13

Motor vehicle production (y/y %)Japan USA

Germany South Korea

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.8

7.0

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Feb 10

May 10

Aug 10

Nov 10

Feb 11

May 11

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

May 12

Aug 12

Nov 12

Feb 13

Foreign exchange

USD/GBP USD/EUR RMB/USD [RHS]


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