Steamboat Springs Economic Summit 2010 The Changing Tourism Environment RRC Associates, an STR Company May 20, 2010

Steamboat Springs Economic Summit 2010The Changing Tourism Environment

RRC Associates, an STR CompanyMay 20, 2010

Page 2

Outline• Sales Tax Revenue • Hotel Occupancy/Rate• MTRiP• Travel Intentions• Steamboat Summer • Ski Resort Industry• Observations

Page 3

Sales and Lodging Tax• Mountain town sales tax down 12.3%

in 2009• Steamboat Springs taxable sales down

16.7% in 2009• Mountain town lodging tax down

19.1% in 2009• Steamboat Springs lodging tax down

23.4% in 2009

Page 4

Taxable Sales• Sales tax fell in all mtn. towns in 2009

-13.

2%

-12.

0%

-13.

8% -9.7

%

-13.

2%

-6.8

%

-4.6

%

-14.

0%

-14.

2%

-13.

3%

-16.

2% -12.

3%

-15.

5%

-16.

7%

-6.0

%

-14.

8%

-8.6

%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Aspen

Avon

Brecke

nridge

Crested

ButteDillo

n

Durango

Estes P

ark

Frisco

Glenwood Sprin

gs

Mountain Villa

ge

Mt. Cre

sted Butte

Silvert

horne

Snowmass V

illage

Steamboat

Springs

Tellu

ride Vail

Winter Park

Town

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

fro

m Y

ear

Pri

or

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 5

Lodging Taxable Sales• Lodging tax change more variable

Selected Mountain Towns Percent Change in Lodging Taxable Sales from Year Prior

-24.

8%

7.9%

-17.

8%

1.8%

-15.

4% -9.9

%

-8.1

%

-3.5

%

-35.

0%

-11.

5%

-14.

2%

-22.

2%

-19.

8%

-23.

4%

-22.

4%

-19.

6%

-20.

5%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

Aspen

Avon

Brecke

nridge

Crested

ButteDillo

n

Durango

Estes P

ark

Frisco

Glenwood Sprin

gs

Mountain Villa

ge

Mt. Cres

ted Butte

Silvert

horne

Snowmass V

illage

Steamboat

Springs

Tellu

ride

Vail

Winter Park

Town

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

fro

m Y

ear

Pri

or

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 6

Share of Sales Tax by SeasonShare of Taxable Sales by Season, Selected Mountain Towns

41.7%

58.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Snowmass V

illage

Vail

Winter P

ark

Mt. Cres

ted B

utte

Mountain V

illage

Brecke

nridge

Avon

Steamboat

Springs

Dillon

Aspen

Frisco

Tellu

ride

Silvert

horne

Glenwood S

prings

Durango

Crested

Butte

Estes P

ark

Sh

are

of

Taxa

ble

Sal

es b

y S

easo

n

Share of Taxable Sales May to Oct

Share of Taxable Sales Nov to Apr

Page 7


Page 8

Total United States% Change YTD by Week

2.3%

-3.6%

12.6%

5.5%

2.4%

5.7% 6.4%

-4.3% -4.4%

-0.4%

1.4%

-2.4% -1.5% -0.8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Mar YTD 4/3 4/10 4/17 4/24 5/1 5/8

Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg

Most recent data shows US hotel occupancy rising, ADR following

Page 9

Total United States% Change 12 Mos Ended March

-3.8

-6.4

-0.1

-6.5

-2.9

-5.8

-8.1

-13.5

2.8 3.1

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR

2009 2010

For past 12 months, all US indicators down

Page 10

Resort Properties% Change 12 Mos Ended March

1.5

-7.2-8.6

-3.2

-11.5

1.5

-2.2-3.6

-9.6-12.8

-20

-10

0

10


2009 2010

2009 generally worse for resort hotels, but over past 12 months,

indicators were less down for resort hotels than for total US

Page 11

Resort Properties% Change March 2010 YTD

1.7

-11.6-13.1

-11.8

1.44.5

3.1

-4.6-1.7

-23.3-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


2009 2010

Demand and occupancy were up in first three months of 2010 for resort hotels. Rates and

RevPAR still negative, but improving.

Page 12

Occupancy/ADR % Change 12 Mos Ended March

-2.9

-6.5-5.5

-7.8

-3.7

-7.4

-11.6

-8.8

-11

-1.7

-9.6

-2.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Metro

Occupancy ADR

Resort hotels down similar to other

location segments

Page 13

Occupancy/ADR % Change March 2010 YTD

3.44.9

-3.2

3.1

-2.3

-4.7-6.0

-8.0

-0.4

-4.6

-1.2

5.9

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small MetroOccupancy ADR

Resort hotel performance mixed compared to other

segments over past 3 months

Page 14

Mtn. Town vs. US ADR

$215$229

$245$262

$240

$91 $98 $104 $107$98

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

AD

R

MTRiP ADRU.S. ADR

-

-

Page 15


Page 16

MTRiP Data• MTRiP collects reservation data from

hotels and property managers from 13 western mountain destinations

• Booking windows continue to shorten, as consumers wait to plan their trips until the last minute

• Lodging properties need to be increasingly nimble and creative

Page 17

MTRiP Data• Overall, last winter ADR was down, but

looking up for this summer

2008/09 2009/10 Change

Occupancy – last 6 months

40.3% 40.9% +1.4%

Occupancy – next 6 months

12.5% 12.6% +0.9%

ADR – last 6 months

$305 $287 -5.8%

ADR – next 6 months

$168 $173 +3.4%

Page 18


Page 19

Travel Intentions Survey

• Quarterly survey of business and leisure travelers

• Nationally representative sample of 3,806 respondents

• Explores current sentiment, past travel behavior, and future travel intent

Page 20

Confidence in Stability of Job

48%

35%

17%

39% 40%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Very confident Somewhat confident Not at all confident

HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU IN THE STABILITY OF YOUR JOB OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

Perc

ent R

espo

ndin

gConfidence Level in Stability of Job by Incidence of Mountain Travel

Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months

No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months

Page 21

45%

13%

41%39%

15%

46%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Better Worse About the same

AND HOW ABOUT 6 MONTHS FROM NOW, DO YOU EXPECT THAT IN THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE BUSINESS CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER, WORSE, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY

Perc

ent R

espo

ndin

gPerceived Outlook for Business by Incidence of Mountain Travel



Outlook on Business

Page 22

19%

30%

51%

18%

37%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

More Less About the same

LOOKING OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, DO YOU ANTICIPATE YOU WILL SPEND MORE, LESS, OR ABOUT THE SAME ON LEISURE TRAVEL

Perc

ent R

espo

ndin

gAnticipations Regarding Leisure Travel Spend

by Incidence of Mountain Travel



Anticipated Leisure Travel Spending

Page 23

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Less than $25,000

$25,000 -$34,999

$35,000 -$49,999

$50,000 -$74,999

$75,000 -$99,999

$100,000 -$149,999

$150,000 -$199,999

$200,000 -$249,999

$250,000 or more

Perc

ent R

espo

ndin

g

Average Household Income

Annual Houeshold Income by Incidence of Mountain Travel



Average Household IncomeMountain Travel in Past 12 Months 101,924$ No Mountain Travel in Past 12 Months 78,757$

Household Income of Travelers

Page 24

22% 21% 22%20%

16%

42%

22%

17%

9%10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

$1000 and Under $1001 to $2000 $2001 to $4000 $4001 to $6000 More than $6000

WHAT WAS THE TOTAL AMOUNT YOUR HOUSEHOLD SPENT ON ALL TRAVEL COMPONENTS FOR THE LEISURE TRIPS YOU HAVE TAKEN IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS

Perc

ent R

espo

ndin

g

Amount Spent on Leisure Travel Over Past 12 Monthsby Incidence of Mountain Travel



Spending on Leisure Travel in Past 12 Months

Page 25

Mountain Travelers• Mountain travelers take more trips, esp.

special event, ocean/beach, touring, golf

66%

40%

26%24% 26%

12%14%

17%

10% 8%3%

76%

53%

43%38%

31%27%

25%21%

14%10% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Visitwith

familyand

friends

City trip Specialeventtrip

Oceanbeachresort

trip

Casinotrip

Touringtrip

Travelabroad

Themepark trip

Cruisetrip

Other Golf trip

Perc

ent

Resp

ondi

ng

Leisure Traveler (no mountain travel)

Mountain Traveler

On average mountain travelers took 4.5 types of leisure trips in 2009 comparedto only 2.5 trip types for other leisure travelers. In terms of total trip volume, mountain travelers took twice as many leisure trips in 2009.

Page 26


Page 27

Steamboat Summer• Summer visitors have positive

impression of amenities/things to do, the town in general, and friendly people

• Weaknesses include air transportation, shopping/retail mix, prices, and nightlife

• Stay an average of 5.3 nights• 58% have made previous summer visit• 42% have made previous winter visit• Mainly families and empty nesters

Page 28


Page 29

US Ski Season 2009/10• Total skier visits of 59.7 million, up 4.2%

from 2008/09• All regions were up except Northeast;

all regions above 10-year average• Snowfall down and/or variable• Days open declined by 2 days nationally• Visitation generally down in the early

season, up after New Year’s and up strongly starting President’s Weekend

Page 30

US Ski Season 2009/10• Overnight visitation, international

visitation, percent paid tickets, and ticket yield all up slightly

• Lesson volumes increased• Snowboarding inched up, to 32.5%• Capital expenditures projected to rise• Demographics continue to be

challenging• Overall a positive season by many

measures

Page 31

Total Visits• Total skier visits 2nd best ever, at 59.7 million

54.0 52.5 54.152.1 52.2

57.354.4

57.6 57.1 56.9 58.955.1

60.557.4

59.7

13.3

6.0

7.8

20.7

8.2

3.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

Skie

r Vis

its (m

illio

ns)

Northeast Southeast Midwest Rocky Mountain Pacific Southwest Pacific Northwest

Page 32

Total Visits by Region• All regions above their 10-year average

12

.5

5.8

7.8

20

.7

7.9

4.1

11.8

4.9

7.2

20

.8

6.5

3.8

14

.3

5.2

8.1

21

.3

7.6

4.0

13

.7

5.7 7

.2

20

.0

7.1

3.6

13

.3

6.0 7

.8

20

.7

8.2

3.8

13.2

5.57.6

19.8

7.8

3.60

5

10

15

20

25

Northeast Southeast Midwest RockyMountain

PacificSouthwest

PacificNorthwest

Skie

r Vis

its (m

illio

ns)

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 10-season avg.

Page 33

Regional Level MapNortheast

-2.8%

Rocky Mountain+3.4%

Pacific Northwest+3.2%

Midwest+7.2%

Southeast+6.7%Pacific Southwest

+14.8%

Percent Change in Skier Visits by RegionPreliminary Results2009/10 vs. 2008/09

Percent Changein Visits

-5% or less

0% to -5%

0% to +5%

+5% to +10%

+10% or more

Page 34

Skier Visits by State• Top 5 states account for over half of

total US skier visits

California12.2%

Vermont6.8%

Utah6.8%

New York6.7%

Wisconsin4.1%

Idaho2.6%

All Other States (20)10.7%

Pennsylvania6.0%

Michigan3.7%

New Hampshire3.6%

Oregon2.8%

New Mexico1.7%

Montana2.2%Massachusetts

2.4%Minnesota2.4%

Washington2.9%

Colorado20.2%

Maine2.2%

Page 35

Cumulative Visits by TOS• Caught up to prior year by mid-FebCumulativ e Skier Visits by Time of Season,

2009/10 v s. 2008/09

-12.2%

-3.9%

0.5%

3.6% 4.2%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Thru Dec 18 Thru Jan 3 Thru Feb 15 Thru Mar 28 Total Season

Skie

r Vis

its (M

illio

ns)

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Cumulative skier visits 2009/10Cumulative skier visits 2008/09Cumulative percent change

Page 36

8.76

9.64

8.76

9.29

10.50

9.87 10.07 9.65 9.59

10.04

9.22

10.37 9.88

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

To

tal

Act

ive

Do

mes

tic

Ski

ers/

Sn

ow

bo

ard

ers

(in

mil

lio

ns)

Season

Total Active Domestic Skiers/Snowboarders:1996/97 to 2008/09

Only about a 1% annual rate of growth in participants since 1996/97

Total ACTIVE Domestic Skiers/Snowboarders:1997/1998 to 2008/2009

Page 37


Page 38

Looking Ahead…• Rebound forecast in US travel

Forecast of Selected Economic and Travel Indicators2009 - 2011

-2.5% -3.0%

-6.4% -6.6%

-8.8%

2.5% 2.1%2.9%

0.3%

4.8%

3.0% 2.9%

6.0% 6.2%

9.1%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Real GDP Total DomesticPerson-Trips

TotalInternational

Arrivals to theU.S.

Travel PriceIndex

Total TravelExpenditures in

U.S.

Cha

nge

from

Prio

r Yea

r

2009

2010f

2011f

Source: US Travel Association as of 2/2/10.

Page 39

US Hotel Forecast• Gradual recovery forecasted (esp. 2011)

3.7%

2.8%

0.3%

-0.3

%

-4.4

%

-8.6

%

1.3% 1.8%

4.2% 5.

5% 7.5%

6.2%

2.7%

-8.8

%

-2.1

%

3.5%

8.1% 8.4%

7.8%

5.9%

-1.9

%

-16.

7%

-0.9

%

5.4%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011P

Year

ly C

hang

e

Occupancy

ADR

RevPAR

Page 40

Observations• Taxable sales and lodging tax were

down in nearly all mountain communities in 2009

• Steamboat’s sales tax base is less seasonal than other mountain communities

• Hotel occupancies and rates are generally improving, with mountain communities showing limited strength

• Mountain ADRs are predicted to rise over next 6 months

Page 41

Observations• Skier/snowboarder visits were up

despite a decline in days of operation and snowfall

• Short booking lead time demands creativity, constant monitoring, and pro-active tactics to address anticipated low points

• Mountain travelers are active and engaged

• Macro-economic indicators are positive

THANK YOU!

RRC Associatesan STR Company

www.rrcassoc.com

Documents

Steamboat Springs Economic Summit 2010 The Changing Tourism Environment RRC Associates, an STR Company May 20, 2010