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STATUS OF THE CURRENT REVIEW
OF CLIMATE CHANGE USER REQUIREMENTS
Brussels, 11 March 2016
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• Objective of the first Specific Contract (2015-2016)
To Gather user requirements (URs) & service specifications (SS) to be fulfilled by the next generation Copernicus Space Component in the six Copernicus domains
• SpaceTec Partners and NOVELTIS (Subco) are responsible for:
– Gathering user requirements in the Climate Change domain in order to provide an evolutionary picture of C3S from today's service, and today's configuration of the Copernicus space component
– Architecture of the Copernicus Space Component after 2030
– In coordination with C3S team of ECMWF
OBJECTIVES
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• Maturity of the service deployment
– Emerging conditions: C3S will be operational from 2018
– Not inherited from preparatory pre-operational projects, like MACC(II/III), geoland(2), MyOcean, GIOs projects, but from a large set of FP6/7 R&D precursor projects (e.g. CORE-CLIMAX, CHARME, QA4ECVs, CLIPC, ERA-CLIM2, GAIA-CLIM)
– In a context of international and European negotiations and initiatives (e.g. COP21, WMO WCRP, GCOS, ESA CCI, EUMETSAT SAFs, WMO GFCS)
• User community
– Diverse and fragmented: from institutional users to downstream industry end users
UNIQUE SITUATION OF C3S
A THREE-STEP PROCESS
User Forum Presentation
Starting PointC3S (2018), CAMS/MACC, GMES PURE
User engagement
Identifying and segmenting the
users in appropriate categories
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User consultationCollecting the
user needs and expectations in
a database
Gap AnalysisPerforming the UR and
CSS analyses and proposing their possibleevolutions after 2030
Phase 1Review of the
current requirements
Phase 2User consultation
Workshop and Interviews
Cross-domain perspective
Call for interest
SAMPLING OF
DOCUMENTS ANALYSED
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• ECVs
• Global and regional reanalyses (atmosphere, ocean, land, carbon)
• Products based on observations alone (gridded; homogenised station series; reprocessed Climate Data Records)
• NRT climate monitoring facility
• Seasonal forecasts
• Climate projections at global and regional scales
CLIMATE CHANGE A PRIORI
USER REQUIREMENTS
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Products and information to understand, monitor and forecast the Climate System
Models for resource management, risk reduction, mitigation and adaptation
Indicators
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• Focus on C3S stage I-II and III atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial ECVs and associated physical parameters
• GCOS-ECVs requirements in the WMO-OSCAR tool
• List of ECVs measurable from Space in the CEOS database, missions and instruments
GAP ANALYSIS ON ECVS
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• Are there ECVs measurable from space but not measured yet?– If yes, does the appropriate technology exist?
– Was it already demonstrated?
– What are the missions that could be proposed to measure new ECVs and parameters? What is the timeline to bring them to operational status?
• What are the ECVs currently measured from Space operationally and until when?
• Do the operational instruments provide satisfactory measurements?
• The gap analysis aimed at identifying the main holes in the satellite data offer and some shortcomings in terms of, for example, spatial and temporal coverage quality, timeliness.
QUESTIONS THAT SUPPORTED THE
GAP ANALYSIS ON ECVS
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GAP ANALYSIS: ECVS
NOT MEASURED YET FROM SPACE
ECVs which are currently not yet measured properly by satellites or for which the technology is at an early stage of development (very
difficult to measure from Space) :• Surface Air Temperature • Surface Water Vapour• pCO2 (oceanic surface) • Ocean Acidity
Permafrost (special case): no significant satellite contribution to date.
Combined monitoring of meteorological and hydrological variables, soil and vegetation parameters, carbon dioxide and methane fluxes, and the thermal
mode of the active layer and permafrost at “reference sites” is the recommended observing approach, most datasets only contain information on temperature and
thickness and depth of the frozen and active layers.
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GAP ANALYSIS: RELEVANT GAPS
ECVs for which there will be no Copernicus mission in the
timeframe 2016-2030
1. Ocean Salinity (SMOS follow-
on not yet decided)
2. Downward short-wave irradiance at Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA)
3. Vegetation type: only
BIOMASS (ESA Earth Explorer mission, 2020-2024)
4. Ice Sheets (Cryosat follow-on
not yet decided)
ECVs which are not the most relevant measurement of the
Copernicus missions from 2020 :
1. CO2: could be estimated, without
meeting the required accuracy, with Sentinel-5 (2021-2030) data; (GOSAT-2, 2018-2023, JP)
2. CH4: could be estimated with
Sentinel-5 (2018-2023) data, Merlin (2019-2022, experimental, DE-FR)
3. CFCs gases: could be estimated
with Metop-SG-A1 (2018-2023) data
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GAP ANALYSIS: ADDITIONAL GAPS
ECVRequired update
frequency
"Breakthrough"
Update Frequency
Offered update
frequency
Accuracy
requiredAccuracy offered Comments
Surface Precipitation
intensity (solid and liquid)3 h 4 h 6 - 12 h 0.1 mm > 0.1 mm N/A
TOA ERB longwave 3 h 4 h 60 min over Europe 1 W/m2 2-5 W/m2 N/A
TOA ERB shortwave 3 h 4 h
12 - 24 h Global
and 60 min over
Europe
1 W/m2
Not directly
available
(supposed 1 -2
W/m2)
N/A
CO2 Total Column and
Vertical Profile3 h 4 h 24 h 1 ppm > 2 ppm
Limb-scattering instrument
missing (no vertical profile
measurements)
CH4 Total Column and
Vertical Profile3 h 4 h 12 h 10 ppb 5 ppb
Limb-scattering instrument
missing (no vertical profile
measurements)
O3 Profile 3 h 9 h12 h Global and 60
min over Europe5% 10-30 %
Vertical resolution needed is 1-2
km, and the offered one is 6 km
O3 Total Column 4 h 4 h12 h Global and 60
min over Europe5 DU (2%) 3-5 % N/A
Cloud Optical Depth,
effective particle radius, top
pressure, and top
temperature
3 h 4 h 4 - 12 h N/A
Cloud Water Path Liquid and
Ice3 h 4 h 8 - 12 h N/A
Wind speed over the surface 3 h 3 h 36 - 48 h 0.5 m/s 2 m/s
Spatial resolution requirements
are also not met (10 km required
vs 15 km offered)
Sea level 1 week 1 week 15-30 days 1 cm 1 cm N/A
Sea Surface Temperature 24 h 24 h 12 - 24 h 0.1 K 0.2 - 0.3 K N/A
Atmospheric Temperature 3 h 4 h4 - 12 h Global and
1 hour over Europe0.5 K 0.2 K
Vertical resolution requirements
not met (0.1 km required vs 0.5
km offered)
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Annual accurate monitoring of GHG emissions and removals from LULUCF sector from 2013
HANDFUL OF URS EXTRACTED
FROM THE DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
Annual accounting for soil carbon emissions and removals from 2013
Understanding and modelling CC related to the hydrological cycles and their impacts
Better understanding of ocean dynamics and of their role in accentuating or mitigating CC
A set of tools for incorporating climate change into future river basin management plans
Illegalwater abstraction service
Forest area to maintain and enhance forest resources and their contributions to global carbon cycles
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Most relevant takeaways:• The user driven approach will ensure an exhaustive user requirements gathering
• This workshop represents the initial milestone to give users the opportunity to drive the design of the future of the Climate Change Copernicus Space Component
• The gap analysis presented will significantly benefit from the user engagement
Early recommendations:• Continuity
• International cooperation and cross-domain fertilization are keys to success
• It is fundamental to always keep in mind that the in situ component is as relevant as the space one, and that the ground segments are an important support to success
GCOS Science Conference, 2-4 March 2016, Amsterdam• Outstanding event to shape the next GCOS implementation plan and the road for
the future Global Climate Observation (V0.1 in July 2016) where we collected a lot of requirements
CONCLUSIONS
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Voice your experience, EO needs and technical requirements via
An online feedbackhttps://spacetec.typeform.com/to/Re47vZ
An online forum for further discussion open until 21st Marchhttp://www.copernicus.eu/c3s-user-consultation-workshop
The on-line “Call for Interest” for being further interviewed
http://copernicus.eu/copernicus-call-for-interest-survey
TAKE PART IN THE PROCESS
© Copernicus Sentinel/ESA
Carine Petit [email protected]éphane Ourévitch [email protected] Bruzzi [email protected] Pica [email protected]
