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STATEMENTOFBRIANL.HOREJSI,PhD.ADDRESSINGGRIZZLYBEARRECOVERY

February2019

MynameisBrianL.Horejsi.IhaveabachelorofscienceinForestryfromtheUniversityofMontanaandaPhDintheBehavioralEcologyoflargemammalsfromtheUniversityofCalgary.IhavebeenemployedasaresearchbiologistandforesterinAlberta,theYukonandtheNorthwestTerritories,andhaveworkedextensively(1976topresent)withgrizzlybearsandconservationeffortsinAlbertaandBritishColumbiaasanindependentscientistandactivecitizen.Mygrizzlybearfieldresearchhasincludedmeasurementofmortalityriskandgrizzlybearresponsetoroads,expressedasHabitatEffectiveness.AsampleofmyprofessionalpublicationsandpresentationsincludeHorejsi(1986;1993;2003;2004;2005);Horejsi,Gilbert&Craighead(1998);Horejsi&Gilbert(2006).Thefullcitationsareincludedattheendofmystatement. TheU.S.FishandWildlifeServiceconservationplanforgrizzlybearsintheNorthernContinentaldivideecosystemiscriticallyflawedatanumberoflevels.InthisstatementIaddresstwolevels; 1.mostdirectlythepresumptionthatgrizzlybearpopulationsandhabitatinBritishColumbiaandAlbertaareviable,andsecond 2.thatregulatorystandardsandpracticesinthoseprovincesarecapableofprovidingandcontinuingtosupportbearpopulationsthatwouldbuttressdemographicandgeneticcontinuityfortheU.S.bearpopulation.INADEQUATEREGULATORYENVIRONMENT ItmaybemostrevealingtoaskU.S.citizensandauthoritieswhatitwouldbeliketomanageforrecoveryofgrizzlybearpopulations;>withouttheEndangeredSpeciesAct,>withouttheNationalEnvironmentalPolicyAct,>withoutroaddensityandcoresecurityareahabitatprotectionstandards,>withoutanylegalsystemthatprovidesavenuesthroughwhichcitizensand independentscientistscanchallengedecisionsandbehaviorbywhatarethe equivalentofstateagencies,AlbertaFishandWildlife(Ministryof Environment)andBritishColumbia’sMinistryofForestLandandNatural ResourceOperations(FLNRO),>withoutanyForestPlansforpublicforests,and>finally,butbynomeansminimally,understandingthatvirtuallyallpubliclandis ownedandmanagedbytheProvinces(equivalentofStatejurisdiction). Thiscontrastssharply,forexample,79%federalownershipwithinthe NorthernContinentalDivideGrizzlyBearrecoveryzone. Forasummaryofthesecontrasts,whichshowthetotalityoftheabsenceoflegal,regulatory,anddemocraticprocessesthatapplytolandandwildlifemanagementandconservationinBritishColumbiaandAlberta,Iprovidethe

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followingFigure.Checkmarksindicateregulatorypresence,and“X”indicatesabsence.

REGULATORYWORLDDIFFERSDRAMATICALLYADVANTAGESonUSNATIONALFORESTS

VSDEFICIENCIES:

ALBERTAandBRITISHCOLUMBIA“PROVINCIAL”LANDS

US BCComprehensive ForestMgmtPlan ✔ ý NFMAEnvironmentalImpact ✔ ý Statements/AppealsNEPA CitizenSuitProvisions ý APA ✔ ý AdministrativeProceduresSunshineRules ✔ ý RoadlessRule ✔ ý TravelMgmtPlans ✔ ý ESACoverage ✔ ý InCanada=SARA(FederalSpeciesAtRiskActAppliesonlytoFederalLand=550km2WatertonLakesNationalPark)

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QUESTIONABLEINTENTThe“strategy”ofAlbertapublicservantsandtheirDRAFTGrizzlyBearrecoveryPlan(2016)exposes, 1.>asonemightexpect,thepoliticsandcareersurvivalmentalityofthese peopleandtheprovincialwildlife,landandagriculturemanagement organizations(TheAlbertaForestService,theDepartmentof Agriculture,andFishandWildlife).Thisisnotuncharacteristicof state/provincialagencies,butitshouldberecognizedasasource ofbias,and 2.>collusionbetween“academic”researchers(primarilyseveralpeople fromtheUniversityofAlberta)andanorganizationknownasthe FoothillsResearchInstitute(FRI)andtheirmajorfunders–the governmentofAlbertaandthetimberindustry(throughFoothills ResearchInstitute,anorganizationthatevolvedfroma“ModelForest” initiativestartedbytheTimberindustry). Needlesstosayitclaimsindependence,butoftenthanks WeyerhaeuserandWestFraserTimberCo.forsupportmakingthe projectpossible).Seepage10below,whichispastedfromFRI’s annualreport. TheAnnualReportstatestheResearchInstitutespendsabout$6.5 millionannually,ofwhichabout$4.3millioncomesfromcorporations and“nonprofitentities”whicharenotdefined. IntheDRAFTAlbertaplan(asofJanuary2019ithasnotyetbeenfinalized)theystate“withinwestcentralAlberta,researchindicatesthatgrizzlybearsselectforforestrycutblocks……androads”;theygoontosay“grizzlybearsdidnotavoiddisturbedareasinthefoothillsofAlberta,includingclear-cuts,roads,pipelines,well-sites,power-lines,andrailways.”(p.8). TopointoutonemeasureoftheproindustryslantthatAlbertaFishandWildlifeemploys,theydecided(ithasnotbeenrevealedhow,butitmighthavetodowithclosedmeetingswithoffroadvehicleclubs)touse“openroads”fortheirmeasureofhumanimpacts,distinguishingtheseroadsfrom“openroutes”; theythendefine“openroads”asonlythoseaccessiblebyonhighwayvehicles-versus“openroutes”whichwouldbeaccessiblebyallmotorizedmeans. Theconvenienceforexistinglandusersisevident;offroadvehicleusersgetafreeride,asdoalltheindustriesusingaccesslikein-cut-blockroads,seismicroads,andpowerlineandpipelinerightofways!PRESENTSTATUSOFTHEALBERTA–MONTANALINK TheAlbertabearmanagementarea(BMA6)thatincludessouthernAlbertaandbordersontheContinentaldivideinthewestandontheInternationalboundarywithMontanais3600km2(about1460mi2)inareaandalmostallofitis

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under30kmwide(18mi);14%isfederalland(WatertonNP)and42%isprivateland! BMA6isdividedintotwodesignations; >“recovery”zone,about50%oftheBMA,and“support”zone.Theplannotesthatwithinthe“recovery”zone,“oilandgasactivities,timberharvest,andrecreationoccurintheportionoftherecoveryzonenorthofWatertonLakesNationalParkwithwidespreadcattlegrazing”(p.23). ItisimportanttonotethatthecurrentversionoftheDraftRecoveryplanproposednorestrictionsontheseintensivelanduseactivities. TheDraftrecoveryplancitesa2007populationestimateof51bears(p.14).Inmyreport(Horejsi2004)Iestimatedin2004thatabout55–65bearsoccupiedtheBMA. TheplandisclosesthatthisBMA >hasthehighesttotalmortalityrateofgrizzlybearinAlberta(almost40% higherthanthenextBMAtothenorth),and >hasthehighestfemalemoralityrateinAlberta(almost75%higherthan theBMAtothenorth!) Morerecently(MorehouseandBoyce2017)ithasbeenestimatedthat61bearshavehomerangeslargelywithinthesouthernAlberta(southofHighway3=theareaintheGlobalForestWatchfigurebelow)bearmanagementareathatlinksMontanatoAlberta. MorehouseandBoyce(2017)identifiedanumberofbearsinadditiontothisestimatethathadbeenDNAidentifiedinMontanaandBritishColumbia;theyindicatedthatgreaterthanhalfofthebearscontributingtoanexpandedpopulationestimatewerebearswhosehomerangesincludeMontanaandBritishColumbia. ContrarytoMorehouseandBoyce(2017)whoclaimthepopulationincreasedbetween2004and2016,myinterpretationofthisevidence,givensimilarityinestimatednumbers(betweenHorejsi2004andMorehouseandBoyce2017),a14yeartimedifference,andacceptablemarginsoferror,isthatBMA6,whichlinkscentralAlbertatoMontana,hasbeenandcontinuestoperiodicallybeahighmortalitylandscape. Itisamatterofrelevancetoo,thatneithertheDRAFTAlbertaGrizzlybearrecoveryplanorMorehouseandBoyce(2017)madereferencetoHorejsi2004.Thisomissionsuggestseither1)poorscholarship,or2)by-designbias.Neitherisconstructivewhenplanningorexecutingagrizzlybearrecoveryconservation-managementplan.IMPACTOFROADS Thisfollowing2paragraphsarefrom:TheImpactofRoadsontheDemographyofGrizzlyBearsinAlberta.2014,Boulanger,J.,andG.B.Stenhouse.I’veboldedkeyobservations. “Thisanalysisdemonstratesthatroaddensityaffectsboththedirect

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demographyandtrendofbearpopulationsbutintroducesadditionalriskintoreproductionandrecruitment.Previousanalyses[15]ofbearsinYellowstoneNationalParkandthesurroundingareaalsoconcludedthathumandevelopmentwastheprincipalfactorinfluencingsurvivalratesofgrizzlybears.Basedonpreviousdemographicanalysesitwassuggestedthatsinkhabitatswouldbecreated[1]ifadultfemalesurvivalratedeclinedbelow0.91.Ouranalysessuggestedthattheactualsurvivalraterequiredforareastonotriskdecliningpopulationsdependsonreproductivestate.Iflowersurvivalratesoffemaleswithdependentoffspringisconsideredthenthethresholdofroaddensitythatbearscantolerateisreducedfurther(Fig.4).Thesensitivityorresultstoadultfemalesurvivalratesandreproductivestatefollowsfromotherdemographicstudiesthatdemonstratethehighestsensitivityofpopulationtrendtoadultfemalesurvivalrates[44]. Ourresultsillustratethatlargerwatershedareasoutsideofthemountainouszoneshavepotentialtohavelowerchanceofpopulationincreaseorstabilityifmortalityrisknearroadsisnotmanaged.Thisdistributionofwatershedssuggeststhatthemajorityofcoreareasareinareasoflowerroaddensityandthereforehavethepotentialtobesourcehabitats.Alternatively,57%ofsecondaryhabitatareeitherinmoderate(0.75–1.25)orhighroaddensity(.1.25)suggestingthattheseareaswillrequiremoreintensivemanagementtoaidinpopulationrecoveryandconservationactions.CurrentlytheAlbertagovernmentisattemptingtomanageidentifiedcoreandsecondaryconservationzoneswithineachBMAatroaddensitiesof.6km/km2and1.2km/km2respectively.“(Endofquote). KeepinmindthatasofthisdatetherearenowrittenorlegalobligationsfortheForestServicetomanageforanyroaddensitystandards;theabovestatementisperhapswishfulthinking,butinpracticeeventhatstandard(1.2)wouldbedestructive.BoulangerandStenhouseestimatethatmortalityoffemaleswithcubs/yearlingsexceeds.91whenroaddensityexceeds>.8km/km2.

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GlobalForestWatchCanadadidaroaddensityanalysis(2016,Disturbance,Intactness,andLinearDensityintheCastleWildernessAreaofAlberta,DraftReport)ofthepubliclandsectionofBMA6,andconcludedmostofitwasroadedwellbeyond.8km/km2.–seetheirFigure,LineardensityintheCastle,below!Atthebottomrightoftheirmap,inwhite,isWatertonNationalPark. Formystudy(Horejsi,B.2004)Icalculatedaverageroaddensityonpubliclandtobeabout1.75km/km2;onthenorthhalfoftheBMAitis>2.75km/km2.EvenWatertonLakesNationalParkhasaroaddensityofabout0.6km/km2.

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BritishColumbiastruggleswithnearcripplingregulatoryinadequacyinlandandwildlifemanagementaffairs.TheOfficeoftheAuditorGeneralofBritishColumbiaundertookaauditofgrizzlybearmanagementintheProvincein2017(AnindependentauditofGrizzlyBearManagement). Iwasinterviewedandmadeawrittensubmissiontothatinvestigation.Thesubsequentreportexposestheprovincesincapacitytoreigninorrecoverfromamassivelegacyofindustrialroadaccessthatseverelyhampersgrizzlybearconservationefforts. Thefigurebelowisaphotoreproductionfrompage47,AnindependentauditofgrizzlyBearManagement,AuditorGeneralofBritishColumbia,2017.

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Fromananalyticalperspective,andincorporatingacumulativecontext,thesumofthisinformationonmortality,landscapeintegrityandsize,andthevirtuallynonexistentregulatoryenvironment,alongwiththeneartotalabsenceofpublicdemocraticandlegalproceduresprohibitingaccesstogovernmentagenciesanddecisionmaking,itwouldbewillfullynegligenttostatethatSWAlbertaandSEBritishColumbiacontributepositivelytotheconservationofgrizzlybearsintheNorthernContinentalDivideecosystem.LITERATURECITED AlbertaEnvironmentandParks.2016.DRAFTAlbertaGrizzlyBear(Ursusarctos)Recoveryplan.AlbertaEnvironmentandParks,AlbertaSpeciesatRiskRecoveryPlanno.38.Edmonton,AB.85pp. AuditorGeneralofBritishColumbia.2017.AnindependentauditofgrizzlyBearManagement.OfficeoftheAuditorGeneralofBritishColumbia.Victoria,BritishColumbia.73p.Boulanger,J.,andG.B.Stenhouse.2014.TheImpactofRoadsontheDemographyofGrizzlyBearsinAlberta.2014PLosONE9(12).https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115535GlobalForestWatch.2016,Disturbance,Intactness,andLinearDensityintheCastleWildernessAreaofAlberta,DraftReport.Horejsi,B.L.1986.Industrialandagriculturalincursionintogrizzlybearhabitat:theAlbertastory.Pages116-123In:Proceedings––GrizzlyBearHabitatSymposium.Compilers,G.P.ContrerasandK.E.Evans.USDAForestServiceGeneralTechnicalReportINT-207.IntermountainResearchStation,Ogden,UT.Horejsi,B.L.1993.GrizzlyBearHabitatEffectiveness:AWorkshop.AlliancefortheWildRockiesAnnualMeeting.October2nd,Corvallis,MT.Horejsi,B.L.,Gilbert,B.K.andF.L.Craighead.1998.BritishColumbia’sGrizzlyBearConservationStrategy:Anindependentreviewofscienceandpolicy.WesternWildlifeEnvironmentsConsultingLtd.,Calgary,Alberta.64pp.Horejsi,B.L.2003.Sciencebasedhabitatandpopulationprotectionthresholds:accessinduceddisplacementandaccessmanagementstandardsforgrizzlybears(Ursusarctos).In:AccessManagement:PolicytoPractice.ProceedingsoftheAlbertaSocietyofProfessionalBiologistsConference,Calgary,Alberta.

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Horejsi,B.2004.GrizzlybearsinsouthwestAlberta;avisionandplanforpopulationandhabitatrecovery.WesternWildlifeEnvironmentsConsultingLtd.,Calgary,Alberta.Horejsi,B.L.2005.Uncontrolledlandusethreatensaninternationalgrizzlybearpopulation.ConservationBiology3(3):220-226.Horejsi,B.L.andB.K.Gilbert.2006.ConservationofgrizzlybearpopulationsandhabitatinthenorthernGreatBearRainforest.Biodiversity7(2):3-10.

Morehouse,A.T.,andM.S.Boyce,2016.Grizzlybearswithoutborders:spatiallyexplicitcapture–recaptureinsouthwesternAlberta.J.WildlifeManagement.

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APPENDIXonFoothillsResearchInstitute.Fromtheir2015-16AnnualReport.

Shareholders

Under Alberta legislation, shareholders are legally responsible for directing the affairs of the non-profit fRI Research. Shareholders provide stable core funding and in-kind contributions to support the overall operation of fRI Research.

The shareholders of fRI Research are Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Alberta Environment and Parks; Canfor Corporation; ConocoPhillips Canada;* Jasper National Park; Norbord Inc.; Repsol Oil & Gas Canada Inc.;* Suncor Energy Inc.;* West Fraser Mills Ltd., Hinton Wood Products; and Weyerhaeuser Company.

* These companies are shareholders through the Foothills Energy Partners.

Program and Project Partners

These partners provide funding and/ or in-kind contributions to directly support fRI Research programs and/ or projects or collaborate on programs, projects, or other matters of mutual interest. Many of these partners are also responsible for land, resource or forest management, and are interested in using fRI Research knowledge and tools in their businesses.

Alberta Indigenous Relations Alberta Agriculture and Forestry

(Hinton Training Centre, Bruce Mayer) Alberta Conservation Association Alberta Environment and Parks

(Land-use Secretariat; William A. Switzer Provincial Park)

Alberta Institute of Agrologists Alberta Professional Planners Institute Alberta Riparian Habitat Management

Society (Cows and Fish Program) Alberta Innovates (Bio Solutions,

Energy and Environment Solutions) Alberta Newsprint Company Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc. Alberta Upstream Petroleum

Research Fund Apache Canada Ltd. Arctos Ecological Consulting Aseniwuche Winewak Nation of Canada Bandaloop Landscape-Ecosystem

Services Banff National Park

BC Oil and Gas Research and Innovation Society

Blue Ridge Lumber, a division of West Fraser Mills Ltd.

Bow River Basin Council Brock University Canadian Association of

Petroleum Producers Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative Canadian Land Reclamation

Association, Alberta Chapter Canadian Natural Resources Limited Carleton University Cequence Energy Ltd. City of Dawson Creek, British Columbia Climate Change and Emissions

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Management Corporation (CCEMC)

6 fRI Research 2015–2016 Annual Report

ENDofHOREJSIStatement.DatedFebruary2019.