State of the North Carolina Workforce

Shaping Economic & Workforce Development:  Facts as the Foundation

North Carolina Commission on Workforce Development

38 Member Board Appointed by Governor Provides Strategic Direction to NC Workforce Development System

Allocates $80 Million in WIA Funds for the NC Workforce Delivery System

Operating Guidelines and Standards for 24 Local Workforce Development Boards and NC Job-Link System

Staff of 7 in the Department of Commerce Policy Advice Regarding Workforce Issues

What was the intent of the study?

Project state and selected sub-regional labor market demand and supply during the next decade

Identify key issues likely to arise IF current trends continue and no major economic shifts occur

Provide facts to help guide future policy Shape public discourse

The Results

Key “Trends”

1. Traditional manufacturing industries continue to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic transition.

2. Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation.

3. New job creation is concentrating in certain fast-growing metropolitan areas.

4. Traditional “middle jobs”—those that paid a family-sustaining wage and required minimal formal education or training— are disappearing as part of this transition.

Key “Trends”

5. Future prosperity depends on achieving higher educational attainment levels for all citizens.

6. Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s workforce needs.

7. Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled workers.

8. High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not all, of the skills gap.

Selected Data

Facts and Figures

NC Industry 2007 2017Emp. Change

2007-17 % ChangeTobacco Processing 8,189 5,218 -2,970 -36%Textiles 74,617 47,670 -26,947 -36%Apparel 26,152 10,661 -15,491 -59%Furniture and Wood Products 99,121 107,520 8,399 8%Select Traditional Industries 208,079 171,070 -37,010 -18%Source: Regional Dynamics

The state’s traditional manufacturing industries will likely shed more workers

These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs

Disadvantaged regions are growing slower than the rest of the StateLabor Force Growth and Employment Growth,

2000 to 2005

5.1%

3.4%

6.4%

4.7%

1.5%

-0.1%

2.9%

1.8%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005 Employment Growth 2000 to 2005

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2000

to

200

5 G

row

th

North Carolina

Metro

Micro

Rural

Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005

Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

Metropolitan andMicropolitan Areasin North Carolina

Metropolitan Area

Micropolitan Area

Rural Area

2005 Population Estimates

Metro Area: 6.2 million

Micro Area: 2.0 million

Rural Area: 0.6 million*Source: US Census Bureau

*Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC*Jacksonville, NC*Raleigh-Cary, NC*Rocky Mount, NC*Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC*Wilmington, NC*Winston-Salem, NC

*Asheville, NC*Burlington, NC*Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC*Durham, NC*Fayetteville, NC*Goldsboro, NC*Greensboro-High Point, NC*Greenville, NC

Metropolitan Statistical Areas

*Mount Airy, NC*New Bern, NC*North Wilkesboro, NC*Roanoke Rapids, NC*Rockingham, NC*Salisbury, NC*Sanford, NC*Shelby, NC*Southern Pines-Pinehurst, NC*Statesville-Mooresville, NC*Thomasville-Lexington, NC*Washington, NC*Wilson, NC

*Albemarle, NC*Boone, NC*Brevard, NC*Dunn, NC*Elizabeth City, NC*Forest City, NC*Henderson, NC*Kill Devil Hills, NC*Kinston, NC*Laurinburg, NC*Lincolnton, NC*Lumberton, NC*Morehead City, NC

Micropolitan Statistical Areas

Expected Employment Growth by Education

Educational Attainment in the USCompared to North Carolina (est. 2007)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Advanced Degree 4 Year Degree Associate degree Some college, nodegree

High schoolgraduate/GED

Less Than HSDiploma

Perc

en

t o

f P

op

ula

tio

n 2

5 a

nd

ab

ove

US

NC

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics

Actual Employment Growth by Education

Educational Band Emp 2007Net New Jobs

(07-17)Average Earnings

2007% Total Emp

(2007)% New Jobs

(07-17)Advanced Degree 160,572 36,560 $83,785 3.2% 5.3%4-year College Degree 687,536 134,808 $77,005 13.7% 19.7%Tech-Some Post 386,614 89,452 $46,774 7.7% 13.1%GED Some Experience 801,703 58,980 $42,952 15.9% 8.6%GED/Entry 1,263,563 88,085 $34,123 25.1% 12.9%Below GED 1,732,747 276,598 $24,405 34.4% 40.4%Total 5,032,734 684,484 $40,598 100.0% 100.0%Source: Regional Dynamics

North Carolina

Educational Band Emp 2007Net New Jobs

(07-17)Average Earnings

2007% Total Emp

(2007)% New Jobs

(07-17)Advanced Degree 160,572 36,560 $83,785 3.2% 5.3%4-year College Degree 687,536 134,808 $77,005 13.7% 19.7%Tech-Some Post 386,614 89,452 $46,774 7.7% 13.1%GED Some Experience 801,703 58,980 $42,952 15.9% 8.6%GED/Entry 1,263,563 88,085 $34,123 25.1% 12.9%Below GED 1,732,747 276,598 $24,405 34.4% 40.4%Total 5,032,734 684,484 $40,598 100.0% 100.0%Source: Regional Dynamics

North Carolina

NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required Education

(Est. 2007 and 2017)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

AdvancedDegree

4-year CollegeDegree

Tech-Some Post GED SomeExperience

GED/Entry Below GED

Education Band

Pe

rce

nt

of

To

tal

Ne

w E

mp

loy

me

nt

(20

07-1

7) USA

NC

Fewer job opportunities exist for people without post-secondary education

Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017

NC Net New Jobs Total = 700k

‘Disappearing’

Traditional Middle Jobs

‘New Middle’

Jobs

Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017

7.8%

10.2%

3.9%

14.5%

2.3%

4.4%

7.3%

17.5%

7.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

U.S. NorthCarolina

AdvantageWest

Charlotte EasternRegion

Northeast PiedmontTriad

ResearchTriangle

Southeast

Source: AGS Demographics

Pro

ject

ed G

row

th

In-migration creates future workforce challenges & opportunities

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population Density, 1990

In-migration creates future workforce challenges & opportunities

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population Density, 2000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

AdvancedDegree

4-year CollegeDegree

Tech-Some Post GED SomeExperience

GED/Entry Below GED

Education Band

Pe

rce

nt

of

To

tal

Ne

w E

mp

loy

me

nt

(20

07-1

7) USA

NC

Fewer job opportunities exist for people without post-secondary education

Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017

NC Net New Jobs Total = 700k

‘Disappearing’

Traditional Middle Jobs

‘New Middle’

Jobs

North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage

*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to 2017 Regional Dynamics

Changes in Workforce Demands Annual Number To Replace Retiring Workers 60,795 To Fill Projected Net New Jobs 69,825Total Change in Workforce Demand 130,620Changes in Workforce Supply New Young NC Talent 91,253 In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor market) 26,760Total Change in Workforce Supply 118,013Annual Talent Shortage* -12,607

Applied Efforts

Matching the skills of dislocated workers to expanding companies:– Collins & Aikmen AWNC +– Konica Minolta Zink Imaging– Ethan Allen, HDM, Taylor Togs Altec– Flextronics Kellogg

Next Steps

Launch a “Valuing Education Campaign” across North Carolina

Facilitate greater coordination of the workforce development, education, economic development and training systems for workers at all levels

Develop and widely publish a business-friendly publication, aimed at all North Carolina employers (public and private) both detailing the changing workforce and offering advice for dealing with those changes

Questions and Discussion

State of the North Carolina Workforce