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State of Global Climate
Dr R K Pachauri
Chairman IPCC & Director General TERI
WMOUNEP
Indicators of a warming earth - up to now
• Increase in global mean surface temperature by over 0.6oC (highly likely)
• Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 10 to 15% and thickness decreased by 40% (likely)
• Snow cover decreased in area by 10% since observation started in 1960 (very likely)
• Coral reef bleaching
• 1990s the warmest decade of the millenium (likely)
Source:TAR Synthesis Report
Trends in earth surface temperature
Source: IPCC, TAR
Spatial distribution of climate change
Over the century most warming is observed over mid- and high latitude Asia and parts of western Canada Source: IPCC TAR
Evidence of human intervention
Source: IPCC, TAR
Increasing trend of GHG concentration - CO2
• Atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased by 31% upto 1999 since the industrial revolution
• Today’s concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not in the past 20 million years
• The average rate of increase since 1980 has been 0.4% annually
Source: IPCC TAR
The TAR conclusions
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the trends in the atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century
And
Future emissions scenarios - SRES
Four different story lines characterized by different socio economic assumptions result in different levels of future GHGs and aerosol
They do not assume additional climate initiatives but future emissions are driven by non climate policies designed for other purposes
The SRES includes four marker scenarios A1, A2, B1,B2
IPCC TAR, WGI
Emissions Concentration
Characteristics of a changing climate
• Shift in mean climate parameters
Source: IPCC TAR
• Change in temperature variance
Source: IPCC TAR
Source: IPCC TAR
Impacts of warming
• far reaching effects on different
sectors
• not uniform throughout the globe
• impacts may be both beneficial and adverse
Impacts
Source: GRID Arendal
Illustration Scientific American
Impact on food production systems
Assessment of impacts on fisheries
Source:NOAA PFEL
• Reduced stream flow in rivers
• reduces water running through the turbine and also
• lowers reservoir levels that reduce the water pressure which in turn reduces the power produced by a given amount of water
•Changes in flow regime of rivers - affects generation
Impacts on hydropower potentialImpacts on hydropower potential
Redemption at hand ?
‘Significant technical progress relevant to GHG gas emissions reduction has been made since 1995 and has been faster than anticipated’
Source: IPCC TAR, WGIII
Mitigating Climate changeClimate change is a problem with unique characteristics
• It is global• It is long term• Large uncertainties associated with it• Involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental,
economic, political, institutional, social and technological processes
• Climate change mitigation policies implemented at the national level will, both be affected by, and have impacts on broader socio economic policies and trends, such as those related to development, sustainability and equity
The global sustainability perspective
Source: IPCC TAR
Aligning objectives
• Effective mitigation policies would also further other sustainable development goals (economic, equity, environmental)– Maximising co benefits of the mitigation strategy – Implementing no regrets options
• The key linkages between mitigation and development are many - macroeconomic impacts, employment creation, inflation, trade
Consideration of no regrets options• Design policies that reduce GHG emissions at no or negative costs - ‘no regrets’ options
• No regret option could involve – Reduction of market imperfections– Double dividend - recycling of revenues of carbon taxes to offset distortionary taxes– Maximising incidental benefits - ancillary benefits
• The exact magnitude, scale and scope of ancillary benefits and costs will vary with local geographical and baseline conditions
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Autonomous body established by WMO and UNEP in 1988
The Mandate • IPCC assesses scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant
for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.
• It does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters.
• IPCC reports are neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.
The Principles
• The experts represented in the IPCC are geographically balanced and cover all the IPCC regions
• IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.
• The IPCC process ensures objectivity, transparency, openness by allowing rigorous review of all its reports
• The review process involves experts who have expertise in specific areas, experts chosen by governments and experts chosen by appropriate organizations
The ProcessCompilation of list of CLA, LA, Expert Reviewers, Review editors and Government FP
Selection of LA
Preparation of Draft Report
First review
Second Review
Preparation of Final draft Report
Government, participating organisations WG Bureaux
WG Bureau
CLA and LA
Experts
Government, CLA, LA, CA, ER
CLA, LA in consultation with ER
The IPCC outputs • The Assessment Reports consist of 3 Volumes
– Working Group I - assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
– Working Group II - addresses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.
– Working Group III - assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.
– Each of WG reports are accompanied by a Summary for Policy Makers and a Technical Summary
• The Task Force on Inventory (TFI) - has developed the GHG National Inventories (Methodology and Worksheets) and the Good Practice Guidance
• Special Reports on specific issues
• Technical papers
• Synthesis Report - Scientific responses to
specific policy relevant questions
The Current Bureau of the IPCC
Issues, priorities and the way forward
The Fourth Assessment Report• Improved coordination between the WGs to produce an integrated
assessment of the status of scientific knowledge -addressing cross cutting issues by adopting themes for AR4
• Effort would be made to make it more ‘policy relevant’ by providing the public with – better regional scale assessment– quantification of uncertainties and – incorporating risk and uncertainty in a manner that is easily understood
• This round of assessment would also focus on integrated approaches to adaptation and mitigation in minimising climate related damages
• Focus on developing countries – Inspire further research– involve experts as lead authors
• Provide adequate coverage on socio-economic analysis of actions (adaptation and /or mitigation) Vs inaction and co benefits at a regional level
• Preserving and enhancing the scientific integrity and credibility of IPCC outputs
Nature has implanted in the human breast ability to cope with any difficulty or suffering that may
come to man unprovoked